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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  November 5, 2014 9:30am-10:01am EST

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entire country. i think that you cannot judge the power of the clintons by how arkansas went, how these southern states went. >> thank you for being us. >> much more coverage of america votes 2014 throughout the day here on al jazeera america. we'll break down what is next at 11 am eastern. and bring you live coverage of the president's news conference this afternoon. that's it for us here in new york, i'm stephanie sy. >> and i'm del walters. "inside story" is next. and this morning, don't worry, you don't have to go vote, you can go back to sleep if you want to. but stay tuned. >> the polls will close in just a few hours, and a few ours later out west the mid terms are just about over. but for accounting which means
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it's the first unofficial day of the white house campaign. that's inside story. >> hello, i'm ray suarez. we don't do exit polls. we don't call races, but we do coverage politics, and on this addition of the program we'll fire the opening gun for the race to the white house 2016. too early? i know what you mean, but hillary clinton worked hard to save democratic seats in tight senate races. governor chris christie, chairman of the governor's association, worked hard to keep himself on the parties and country's radar. scott walker watched his national aspirations hang by a thread. and plausible not so plausible
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candidates popped up around the country. it's election day, sure, and still 24 months until election day. >> the former first lady, former senator, former presidential candidate and former secretary of state dramatically reappeared on the political scene at the annual steak fry in iowa. the state she lost to are president obama in 2008. she has declared but supporters are ready. >> we would love to see a woman in the main stage of government. >> yes. >> for once. >> yes, that's true. >> i believe in here. >> iowa remains the first nam in the nation. gaining potential, campaigning in eye was along side the u.s. senate johnny earns has been
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my profiles. >> i'm excited to be here. >> and campaigning for bruce braley. who is running against ernst in the open senate seat. with. control of the senate in play, pick nearly any state that is competitive, and you'll find heavy hitters and potential presidential contenders on the stump brandishing credentials and correcting ious. rand paul in kansas and support of the indangerred incumbents revving up the base. >> you're a republican state, for goodness sakes. >> of course, the president isn't on the ballot. but republicans have been running against him this midterm and expect him and his policies to continue to be a target through 2016. it's a wide field of could-bees
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on the republican side. new jersey governor chris christie has made more than a dozen appearances are in support of many candidates like florida governor rick scott. it's unknown whether the christie 's pugnacious style will wear well. for instance when a protester wanted to ask him about hurricane sandy. if you're wanting the conversation i'm happy to have it, buddy, but until that time sit down and shut occupy. exchanges like that are going to appear in democratic ads rather than republican ones. the projections over the past two months that this might be the lowest midterm election ever does not match well with the gallons of ink and endless spill. with the democratic leaning
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states. a repercent of what's to come? join us for an election day look for the next national campaign, michael sure, and anna gillispie, and mike viqueira . >> michael shure, did you see the themes that you would think would be the contest making themes for 2016 roll out for a look in this last campaign? >> surprisingly, ray, i did not see all of them. i think immigration went and hid in this campaign. i think guns did not come out in this campaign mostly based on geography and where democrats were running. they were loathe to bring that up. and i think only care
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isil, isis , elbaradei, there is always something unpredictable, but i think we'll see more of a look at the economy, the types of jobs that were created under the obama administration, i think immigration is going to play a far better role. >> and your role? >> i know they'll look at the senate, i think some of the issues that will come up in '16 will be a referendum on the obama areas and whether or not obamacare should be allowed to continue in the pass, but i think we'll see an entirely different set of issues that may or may not perfectly match up that we've seen in these races. >> how did it become a factor or bizarrely non-factor in this campaign, and what does this
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tell us about the weight that the barack obama may put on the democratic field. >> in some respects you still have some weight. many love the president only for his money. he has spent countless days, miles and hours traveling back and forth to all the national campaign parties raising money for them, and that was a virtue of necessity because many of these candidates especially the candidates where the senate is going to be decided didn't want to be seen with barack obama . yes there are sur gates sent, but i think in terms of the themes that we saw and the issues that we saw, i agree with michael, we're not going to see that carry over. but two things in particular that we saw over this election are the modern techniques of big da at a and big money. these are things that we're
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going to hear about when i look at kentucky and georgia and i read that you need black votes to win with the democrat, was not bringing the president out really that smart? >> well, it's a double edged sword. you want oh mobilize as many african-american voters as possible, but yet democrats have to win with multi race coalitions. if white voters are soft on president obama that may explain the candidates to align themselves with president obama. if we see democrats losing tonight in southern states it will largely be because their vote share among white voters are very low. it won't be because the vote share among african-american
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voters are low. >> even a casual observer got a lesson in political science, the difference between midterm and national electorate, how one-third of the senate being up and the democrats being on offense. this was a pretty good time to go out and have a civics class even if you weren't intended to vote. >> yes, that's true. and what people need to remember is that this is, in fact, a series of local elections. that one party will always try to nationalize and that's generally the party that's out of power and out of the white house. the republicans have glommed on to issues, they did it with ebola and foreign policy. i think its important for people to see what the offseason elections are like, and it gives us a sustaining interest going into 2016 because it will, as everyone said, will be a little different next time. >> does the money that was spent
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in the final phases by democrats to turn out more of that presidential election year electorate set the table for what's to come in 2016, michael? >> yes, i this it does. i think when you--when you see the power of money in campaigns right now in our political system, it sets the table because the money that's being raised, the money that the president and his sur gates are raising right now, that money is not just for this year's election. that is for 2016. that's for governor's races next year. you can't take that civics class without that lecture in american politics. it does set the table for what we're going to see.
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this is the most it's ever been raised. >> does that difference between the midterm and presidential year electorate strengthen the hands of those constituents that we'll know tomorrow morning whether they turned out or not as we look ahead to 2016? demographics, so we state that more older voters, more white voters will participate in this election. that's part of the reason why we're anticipating republican victories in many places this evening one of the important things to mention is does it make sense to deploy it on television advertising or deploy it in fields? i would argue that as both parties raise more money it's
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makes sense to deploy resources to their field operations, get the out campaigns where they have volunteers turning out the vote. if you don't have that, you could have the slickest campaign in the world, but it may not materialize to a victory. >> mike viqueira you have befo been covering the white house long enough for me to ask this question, if we look at how the president has used this time and look ahead, if we look at george w. bush in the 2006 elections and two years until yo 2008? >> i think there were parallels. 2006 was a very democratic year, and keeping with historical trends. bill clinton is the only president to add in a six-year election to add seats to his party in congress since the civil war. george bush, obviously there were problems with the economy, the wars in iraq, dill illusionment among the
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populous{^l" ^}, and lack of motivation, and historical lack of turnout. so there are clearly parallels here although i don't think we're going to see a wave on the order of what we saw in 2006. this time tomorrow, ray, we'll see an expansion likely of republican-held house and -senate and-senate. >> many hope that you've heard their messages on the campaign trail. we'll look at our 2016 trail ahead. >> you are inside a protein molecule attached to the ebola virus spinning in cyberspace. >> so we want to design a protein. >> it's a game called "foldit". zoran papovic who developed it
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calls it a 3d jigsaw puzzle. >> and if it fits in that spot, all of a sudden the virus wouldn't be able to do stuff that it was doing before. >> so it would inhibit that virus? >> that's right. >> players all over the world participate. the whole point for the 700 gamers who have tackled the ebola puzzles is to have a real world impact. dr. david baker runs the university of washington's institute for protein design where the ebola foldit effort has already given scientists new leads. >> we can design stuff on the computer that has never existed and then in the lab be working with it in real life. >> translating that into vaccines or treatments could take years.
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you. >> andra gillispie when you look at the incomes two years and you look at the just fought elections are the republicans going to be positioning themselves in a different way? dialing back on social issues, for example? >> i'm assuming that social issues will have a prominent role in motivating white evangelicals in particular. i expect there will be a move within the republican party to bring the party to the center more on social issues in an attempt to reach out to younger voters? i think democrats will reach out to women with issues such as equal pay particularly since congress has not passed any bills for equal pay between
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women and men and similar jobs. we'll see an experimenttation of what voters and what the platforms look like for both parties. >> michael shure, some of that will be shaped by the eventually field? some candidates may be more plausible social conservative candidates than others? >> this will come out with the republican primary, whenever that will start. the whole idea is that these social issues gain their prom mans when republicans face off against each other and try to make themselves as socially conservative as they can be. they sort of wane out on the election field. that's a trend that will lesson for a time.
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i don't think we'll see it at the forefront but we'll hear about it a lot more. >> we saw a governor saying, look, we'l the fight over obamacare is over. we took the medicaid deal. turning back of the law is not going to happen. in cases when courts weighed in on same-sex marriage republican governors said the same thing. are we seeing a little bit of a turn that will be important in the things two years? >> i don't think there is any question that really we are. agreeing with what andra said, we're going to see a turn i . what kind of legislation are they going to push? they have to play to their base. and the base has moved yet further right. we've seen the advent of the tea party. they have to placate them while at the same time demonstrate that they can governor, they can
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pass reasonable bills and try to shift that onus or label of obstructionist on president obama. energy bills will be a good indication. when you see debates like we saw in the last presidential cycle, when everyone tries to out social conservative one another and draws each other to the extremes the party. republicans saw that and they'll cut back on the officially sanctioned debates almost in half from 20 as we saw in 2012, to 11 coming this cycle. they're very could go an cognizant to the swath of the public that will turn out in broader numbers for presidential election. >> that sounds like a recipe for civil war in the republican party as they presumably take control. they'll be feeling their oats and the people who got them there will want the legislation that they voted and september them there to make.
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>> one, you'll have a democratic president who will veto that. and will he suffer the penalty for the veto or will congress suffer the veto for passing for what could appear to be extremist legislation. the other thing to keep in mind that general election candidates have to be worried where that middle is, they will be more centrist voters. one lesson of the last four years is that you can number name extremist candidates in both parties then they lose general elections because they can't appeal to that median voter. the types of candidates will be acceptable for people to the right of them to get the nod. that question remains to be seen but that will be a perennial problem where you have prime minister where you truncate half of your electorate.
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>> when we look at chris christie, scott walker and others, are they collecting chips? jed push and others collecting chips that they mean to leverage in the next two years? depending on, of course, what happens today. their candidates have to win in the case ofs could walker, they themselves have to hold on to office as well. >> scott walker is still collecting votes. he's one person, as you brought him up, he'll have a lot to answer for as a national candidate if he's not able to hold on to his governorship. and jeb bush, he's been campaigning, and going in whenever called. rand paul is one of the most interesting of the candidate collecting chips. what he's done, he's gone out and campaigned throughout this a cycle with candidates in alaska, north carolina, mainstream republican candidates, not so much where he comes from. not that libertarian strain.
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he's trying to come in to the good graces of his party. that's one real chip collector we've seen in this cycle. >> we'll be back with more inside story in just a moment. in the final days before the polls open, where early voting was already beginning word came that the economy grew briskly in the last quarter giving us the fastest sustained growth since 2003. with unemployment a tick below 6%, the stock market surging, the democrats could not run on the economy. will they be able to make the argument in 2016 that things are better when so many of us aren't feeling that way? stay with us.
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>> welcome back to notice storiment on al jazeera america. i'm ray suarez retirement accounts are rebounding, the economy is growing, yet the democrats were pushing back against gloom and the republicans hold the president responsible for hard times. with us michael shure, al jazeera america political analyst, andra gillispie, professor of political science at emory university in atlanta, and mike viqueira with
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al jazeera america. this my help decide if hillary clinton wants her photograph taken with president obama. >> hillary clinton, if she's the democratic nominee, it's looking good for her. on the white board on th the wall all individuals who are considering run for president. there is no shortage of candidates, many of them can be dismissed relatively quickly, but it's going to start early, and it's going to be very expensive. >> in terms of some of the issues that we're talking about here, the economy is so bad and so anemic for so long, it sort of god baked in. and the obama administration is frustrated that they're not getting ready for the expansion that is the robust growth that
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you're seeing right now, and legitimately this is something that the president has cited time and time again. wage earners are disproportionate. it has hurt them perception-wise. the economy has had fits and starts. recover summer they set the bar high. they didn't meet those expectations now people are sort of not believing what their eyes are seeing in terms of the data you cited in good growth in the economy. >> well, professor, that gives you a pretty tough row to owe if you're a democratic candidate who looks in the mirror in the morning and see a future president. >> well, usually most the physical models that try to predict presidential election outcome factors, that can help the democrats. there is certainly the need to make sure that people pursue that positive economic growth.
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and also it's a question of candidate attributes. these won't figure into statistical models that my colleague also use, but one of the things that hampered hus hampered hillary clinton in 2008 when she ran was people wanted change. and it was the bigger mantra, so barack obama had the advantage. it time around change was not the banner she can run because she's such an establishment figure. but if she can continue to offer progress that was made in the obama administration, i assuming people will buy it, and not playing the gender card, per se, then that would work well to her advantage. >> michael shure, looking ahead a year from now candidates will be tromping all over iowa.
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it's hard to imagine, but there they'll be in the run up to the caucuses. are there field-clearing or field-limiting candidates in both parties, that once they decide they're in or out it really changes the complexion of the race? >> i think hillary clinton would clear a lot of enemy out of the field. not on ideology, but in fundraising. dan quayle was going to be a candidate for presidency. as soon as george w. bush announced he was going to run, everyone knew the funding organization of the bush family was going to clear that field. the same thing may happen for the economies. it's going to be a lot more difficult than those two names stand out to me, names that make it difficult for other candidates to raise money. >> those other candidates, what
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do they do? what do they do now? continue to build national organizations and wait and see? >> well, i think a lot of them are coy. already you can see in the democratic party there is a bit of a move t with so many names mentioned. republicans are so intent in getting hillary clinton not to run. if they can get rid of their best player, then they have a chance of winning even this far out. >> michael shure, andra gillispie, mike viqueira, thanks a lot. stay with us for continuing election date tonight and tomorrow. that brings us to the end of this edition of "inside story." thanks for being with us.
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from washington, i'm ray suarez. >> announcer: this is al jazeera. ♪ >> welcome to the news hour. i'm sami zeidan in doha. coming up, a palestinian is shot dead by police in jerusalem after ramming his van into a crowded train platform. the attack followed violent clashes with israeli security forces in the city's most holy site. west africa president pushes for civilian rule in

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