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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 30  Al Jazeera  January 31, 2018 3:32am-4:00am +03

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president on tuesday bought the votes being suspended perched rod has now spoken out against what he's called the on faith for tricks of the spanish government and to keep fighting for democracy oh so who is the site for democracy. to be sure to vote restrict. democracy is a stage in his own youth and this message has to some. where the beatles into a few movies. we. all do. and ultimately you viewers lose friends don't let us down because letting us down it's letting the room colson's you look which the united nations children's fund is warning there are sixty thousand children are at risk of starvation and north korea as international sanctions take their toll that they put in place but as of north korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs as in the headlines
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on al-jazeera but there stay with us and five story coming up next thank you very much for watching. russia hosts talks to end the war in syria but the main opposition stays away and others are suspicious russia is the biggest back of syrian president bashar al assad so can it play fact or will it simply enforce it's only vision of peace this is inside story. the at
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the at. the end. hello there and welcome to the program i'm laura kyle a new round of negotiations to saddle the syrian conflict is being held in the russian resort of sochi but moscow may have a hard time convincing the world it can act as an honest broker russian military might has helped tip the nearest seven year long war into the syrian president's favor the main opposition is boycott of the talks the western powers say sochi could undermine efforts in geneva which is backed by the united nations and as roy chalons reports from such a these latest talks have already got off to a rocky start. the saatchi congress almost on ravel before it had even begun with a group of turkish backed opposition figures arriving in sochi airport in the early hours of this morning seeing lots of syrian government flags all over the place and sided in deciding that they were going to go home unless these were change q lots
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of to ing and fro ing between the russian foreign ministry and the turkish foreign ministry to sort this out the upshot was that those delegates did go back to where they came from but they handed their author a t. to turkish government representatives to bring to the dialogue here in sochi it's been a perennial problem really for all the various stages of syria peace negotiations to try and get to the disparate opposition groups buy into it and get on board the problem that many of them have with sorting particularly is they feel that this is a way for moscow and damascus damascus to push its agenda on the syrian resolution squeezing out the opposition voices they say that basically if this channels directly into geneva which is going to be the ultimate settlement for syria then that is probably ok what they don't want to happen is for russia to try and side tracked a need for russia for its part has always said that that is
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a fallacy it has every intention that this is going to push into geneva and just kick start that process once again. well russia is a longtime ally of the syrian president bashar al assad supplying his government with almost as the earliest stages of the war the russian military directly intervened in september two thousand and fifteen launching airstrikes against opposition positions that suborder helped syrian government forces to key victories the following year including the capture of opposition stronghold of aleppo parallel to un efforts in geneva russia has initiated this same peace talks the first two in the catholic capitalist ana and three rounds later they are in russia in such a but what are the prospects for progress. well that's discussed that point now with our guests and joining us here in doha we've got more on carville and he's director of policy analysis at the doha institute for graduate studies in moscow
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pavel felgenhauer columnist with. and in dubai via skype dr masson sell off a syrian opposition member a very warm welcome to all of you thanks for joining us on inside story so pawel we've got these geneva talks which were led by the u.n. we've got a standard talks which were led by russia and turkey why do we now need such she talks. well this was seen and planned as a kind of grand conference that would give the ultimate authority to the russian vision of the future of syria and the kind of a solid the farai of the russian. turkish reigne and access in imposing a solution on syria that these three countries want and for russia of course the presence of turkey is a suppression important because turkey is most work with the key right now in the
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entire russian policy in the region ok when you're a member of the s.n.c. why you not there. i would never go to sochi because. this is not and utra place this is an occupier who is killing children and civilians in the thousands and supporting a war criminal who used chemical weapons where they raped women as a weapon to make rebels surrender their rapes continue it was on france do with a documentary that was on fortunately only aired in france but we are busy translating it and sending it even to the russian people we have no problem with the russian people or iranian people or american people it's always a problem with politicians and extremists including the jewish people we have no problem with them we have a problem with the extremists xanthus policies of never and you know so we would
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never go to a mickey mouse conference where they invited sixteen hundred people for a one day of talks that's point two seconds per person nobody is going to be able to talk it's just a place to. cement the interest of russia and pretending it's a and honest broker when it is not its interest is in supporting assad so that it's forty nine year lease on the military base and the taking of the oil from syria cetera and the prestige that putin is getting now that is on the world stage that's one of the key factors in the u.k. apparel how much does it matter to putin that your position members are not at sochi. well it's unfortunate that the opposition come it's also unfortunate the
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kurds are not there but of course of their conflict right now with their grand but for russia as i already said that turkey is right now the most important player russian the whole incursion into syria was to survive the. base in the mediterranean sea base that we already had but now it's being expanded and much more strategically more important airbase in mamy him and of course what russia has supported the assad regime not just simply assad per se but as a kind of stabilized syria stabilizing factor in syria that will provide the russian bases with a good backup but all this russian activity in the mediterranean and the middle east its main objective has been i mean it's an old strategic russian game or a gold strategic goal to control the straits of the black sea straits for
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centuries russia wanted to have either to folk and throw or a friendly regime there and mediterranean forces to plug up this these traits in times of war that nato doesn't come through and so now turkey which seems to be in conflict increasingly with the united states and with the west in general pulling it away from nato and from the united states even to some degree would be the jack part of russian efforts and syria so that trumps everything else the syrian opposition even the asaad regime ok mon do you agree with that that such a talk to last about finding a peaceful solution or a political solution to syria more about russia's j. politics. well i think i mean of course i mean you can't bring fifteen hundred people and put them in one place and ask them to negotiate that is not how negotiations actually work but i believe that president with the right now at this
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particular stage is desperate to translate his military victory in syria into a political one he's having presidential elections like two months from now and he would like very much actually to capitalize on his when in syria in order to. have a very big. election election victory but this is not going to be an easy task for him because the americans in my opinion are having now. more strategy more clear strategy in syria we have. secretary of state. a couple fifths ago giving this very important speech in the hope for center in stanford university california in which he said that the united states will be staying actually militarily in syria and that it will not actually withdraw from syria as it did from iraq in two thousand and eleven and it will not actually leave syria after the defeat of eisel to the iranians and he was actually talking about
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how to use the u.s. military presence in the east and north part of syria in forcing some sort of a political solution to the syrian conflict apart from the russian one because the russians are russians are trying to impose their own vision. bashar assad in power now because they're like bashar al assad has said but because actually they believe that bashar assad in fact got an interest geopolitical interest in this and this bought off of the world so. in my opinion conference light now might be turned into another. beast process in syria because as you said we have geneva we have and now we are having sochi so i sat down at. she was designed from the very beginning to deal with military issues the cease fire that the escalation zones and so on and so forth. right now sochi is going to be dealing with more
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political issues like the quest to to chanel's the elections and and and the likes so now we are having a field actually process which makes things even much more complicated for them. to kick place in syria because we can see some sort of a competition between these different processes in fact the americans they want very much to focus on geneva the americans i'm talking here about france but then. jordan and saudi arabia who actually came up with the no paper paper the other day talking about their vision of the political. that is through the book or the such and the in my opinion. put pressure on the main syrian opposition not to go to suit because going to suit you will be actually giving a legitimacy to suit. something that americans the french and the british actually also the arab allies jordan saudi arabia they don't want to see that. but if
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political issues are on the table at such a which they appear to be does it not concern you and other opposition groups of boycotts said that you are not that to be a part of that process whatever it may be we know that the agenda is not. the right one they invited sixteen hundred fifteen hundred of which are people inside syria who are either from the baath party or from the security agencies they are they are not the opposition they are pretending they are covering every ethnicity and every group and every interest and every city in syria this is through but they selected all those who are puppets and pro-government they are not of opposition so the opposition is diluted way so much that they are it's insignificant so whether we go or not we know the outcome the outcome is going to
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be something that assad and russia wants the the the war in syria will never end until russia versus america decide who won or quit fighting russia is and turkey are now a line because they are fighting for. the turks now are with russia because they want to stop that's for them drums every interest this is their national interest and america on the other hand would like to divide syria where as russia wants it to stay or one country so in that sense we like the russian agenda but the turks and the russians want to stop right now the turks but the kurds whereas america is pushing the kurds because they want the kurds to be used against turkey and limiting its power and dividing syria because that ensures that their way of
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bases and this they will stay forever and taking the oil in syria and it is good for israel's security to divide and destroy the country so until one or the other settles they either say forget it we're not going to be able to go in to use the kurds and they give up the americans or the turks lose and will i would have loved to see the free syrian army supported by somebody nobody has been supporting yet because it is some solution that does not involve religion unfortunately turkey which will and ever gann who has sympathy to the plight of the syrian people for him the number one issue is the kurdish issue and he is sort. also islam is a shell of the revolution the revolution started with
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a call for freedom ok the i just want to pick up a lot of it that you made about turkey that just as put that to pervert because of he said that turkey was a key player the most important at the table but many commentators do say they agree with masm that turkey's key concern now is the kurds and it's mainly wanting to see that border area cleared of kurdish fighters and it's not so interested in the rest of syria. well for russia it's important that the kurds and the americans are right now to some extent at least heads and russia sees a lot of possibilities arising from that and also russian special forces special service officers have been working and very much in for some time in syria in the center of pacification trying to work out agreements or different
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syrian fractions basically moscow would want to see the opposition as much as it is being under one kind of weed or ship or some entity that they can use that we negotiate with and if the turks can terry called for the opposition they already control parts of it and recent where the governor saying about turkey taking over control not only of the border area but those surveyed leep province which is right now the main leftover of what the opposition controls inside syria so russia would want to see of course turkey being in charge sort of the patron of the opposition in the lead in the north and then russia can negotiate directly with turkey over the heads of the syrian opposition and that's much better than negotiating and trying to find deals with the very splintered syrian opposition forces but one is
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russia interested in being a patron of rebels and let. turkey turkey turkey is in fact having a very important leverage over a very important part of the syrian opposition because those people actually who are now taking part in sochi or have actually traveled to sochi last night actually they were they left from ankara from turkey which means that there has been some pressure on them by the turkish government not to participate and in sochi because as we all know today there has been disorder of bargain between between the russians and the turks and we should the russians they allow the turkish army to enter syria and who started this all of branch operation against the kurdish forces in in exchange for putting bashar on the syrian opposition or at least part of the city opposition to participate in sochi so we have seen in sochi with the. the major military factions syrian factions of the north a ticking bought in so in fact yes i mean to the key is
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a major part of the syrian opposition or important part of the syrian opposition both military and the military and the political one which actually have access and they have support of the turkish or the turkish government but after all we don't we shouldn't be forgetting actually that. the president. and when we talk about him i mean he's he's clearly the president of the turkish republic and he was elected actually to take care of the interest of the of the turkish republic of the interests of his own country not the interests of the syrian people so we have been seeing this shift and changes in turkish foreign policy towards the syrian conflict from from the first to the from the early stages of this conflict in which he was actually calling for president bashar assad to step down and until then the later stages in which he actually started to become the haps more interested actually in containing the core dish and of course this issue in the north of syria let's move on what do you think the u.n.
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special envoy if there is that under mr is doing and what's his. well i think he's trying to capitalize on this meeting in sochi because the installer believes that if he can actually channel that that the outcome of the sochi conference because after all he believes that russia is a very important part of this this conflict and is also a very important part of solving this this this crisis so in one hand he's saying actually to abuse the russians to. try to this cue the whole project of sochi because had he not participated it would have been very in in might be a very big slap on the fears for the russians so he went there on the one hand to throw the russians well i'm trying to help you actually do something with this so you have to to to give to give something in return or this is number one for the geneva process of course and number two is he's trying actually took everything lies as
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a said on any outcome that might come out of the sochi because in sochi the people there are going to talk about almost the same issues that the talks of geneva are actually focusing on two things here the constitutions and the elections so if something happens in suits that could actually help them in geneva that would be good for him also to. exploit was that not a fair point that sochi could make some progress that can vent be carried to geneva and help break the stalemate of those talks. well what will come out is that if if we put sortie as a prerequisite to move on to geneva fine let brest let putin have his wristy etc but at the end of the day nobody believes that sort she is illegitimate plays an illegitimate process but let's get over it sort she so that we get to geneva and the misery of the syrian people unfortunately the there are so many agendas
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and the least of everybody's agenda is the plight of refugees and the plight of the people at cetera and hopefully the turkish invasion or incursion into syria will end within north fly zone that allows the two million drop in there and the refugees in in camps in southern turkey to move on and live their life the ultimate would be of course a peaceful solution but until those agendas are worked out i don't see any solution anytime soon ok and until frankly the usa decided to to end it and have it stronger or leaving the whole thing to russia is not good and to turkey is not good because dorothy is is not accepted by the gulf states because
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of its support the muslim brotherhood and it's not it's the place for the syrian opposition who are the islamists a small fraction and the america needs to be involved instead of leaving it all to the russians right ok the other and yes involvement is not going up and the love that people have at their point is that that that many people are not involved they're not happy to see russia as an honest broker they just simply don't see it as an honest broker but it does reflect the reality on the ground. russia iran and the government damascus assad have the upper hand so therefore that reality reflected in sochi is that they're able to lead the process here. the reality in the ground of course has changed a lot in the past year but this does not. mean peace there indeed as it was already just said very differing agendas around in
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syria and the diminishing of the climate state which went into underground those of course exists there in the underground does not did not bring kind of solution actually it brought more problems as the other agendas are now cooperating and there is also the problem of israel of iran and asked his interest which are maybe more with iran than with russia because russia is an ally with israel and now i would side but asad in israel and israel and iran are not allies at all their enemies so these colliding agendas right now in syria may create even more war than there was before when there was a uniting kind of enemy the state and now there isn't. unfortunately a moan we have run out of time we could do
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a whole nother program on this i'm sure we will so many thanks to all of you for joining us today on inside story. on kabul and most capable for going to and ended by the two miles an hour. and many thanks to you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website this al-jazeera dot com and vote it's gotten to go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com for slash a.j. inside story you can also also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a.j. inside story from the floor a car and the whole team here that's by and you were at i at a. news
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