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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 98  Al Jazeera  April 8, 2018 8:32pm-9:01pm +03

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see this from. there is been evacuated after being good at by these gases we're receiving reports that buses have begun entering duma as part of the agreement between the army of islam and russia the pact includes a cease fire and the evacuation of civilians from the area polls have officially closed in hungary's general election although some stations remain open to allow remaining queues of people to vote and zuma gratian prime minister viktor orban is expected to win a third term however voter turnout appears to be far higher than in the two thousand and fourteen election which could point to a strong showing for all bands nearest rivals. nigeria's army says it has a rescued one hundred forty nine hostages held by boko haram in northeastern borno state the women and children were being held by the armed group in the village of yeti monday could a nigerian soldiers killed three of the fighters for the brazilian
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president lula da silva has begun his twelve year term for corruption a little arrived at the prison under the cover of darkness after finally agreeing to hand him self in following a twelve hour standoff with or thora t. s. police in germany say they may have foiled a potential attack on the berlin half marathon on sunday they've arrested six people when they suspected of preparing a grave city in danger of violent act that's it inside story coming right up by fire. photos in hungary go to the polls the controversial prime minister wants
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a third term in office think to roll bands campaigned on an immigration ticket and a strong victory could boost other nationalist agendas could this election cracks in the european union wouldn't leave the migrants this is insightful. hello and welcome to the show i'm darren jordan the election campaign in hungary has been dominated by one issue immigration right wing prime minister viktor orban has been in office for two terms and joining that time is hardline approach to migrants has grown stronger and analysts say his policies could have a long lasting impact on the european union far right and populist parties have made gains in other elections including its only an austrian one in hungary itself the anti migration sentiment has taken the focus away from corruption health care
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and education. well hungary has taken a tough stance against immigration for years and twenty fifteen more than four hundred thousand refugees many fleeing the war in syria passed through the country in response hunger built a fence along its border with serbia and croatia to keep them out the government count out a series of measures to crack down on migration including a twenty five percent tax on agencies and organizations supporting refugees by mr obama also vowed to continue fighting against the e.u. quota on refugees a plan meant to relocate asylum seekers across europe so let's bring in our guests joining us from budapest is getting a raw and i'm a list of hunger a center for fair political analysis in berlin political analyst and a professor and european studies at stanford university in berlin and by skype from london is matthew goodwin professor of politics and international relations at the
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university of kent thank you all for joining us good day raj nigh in budapest let me start with you viktor orban is widely expected to win a third term in this election how much has his anti immigrant agenda helped him to win votes and why is he so popular i think he has two main forces for him being popular one is the economy economy is has been growing ever since he came into poverty which wasn't true before so that's a plus for him but the other issue is migration. but he she used to create an identity for his base so these base has a very strong identity of european christian ideals and this base resents migration this base resents islam culture and based on that they do space came together very strongly and that's what drives him popularity matthew goode with in london let me bring you in here if i may i mean why is viktor orbán so important to the populace right in europe and why is he at the vanguard of these populist leaders. well i
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think all band has become a very significant figure within the broader populist right movement in europe they see him as somebody who is standing up to a more liberal vision of europe someone who stood up to an angle of merkel on the refugee issue somebody who wants to push europe in a more conservative direction we saw beany after the elections in italy who is the leader of the populist right league. almost say it immediately that he wanted to visit a big tall man and that follows a broader alliance between hungary and austria poland and the czech republic of group a bloc of countries trying to push here or in a very different direction. in berlin you've written extensively about populism and nationalism in europe so how do you think germany is looking at the elections in hungary what's the perception in berlin there where you are. well germany is very
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concerned about what is calling on in some central and eastern european countries and beyond like turkey where we see a general trend which is different from the original narrative how european integration came into being and this narrative is about would we overcome nationalism we've become part of one we still stay who we are germans hunger ariens brits french but we belong to something bigger and there's something bigger is committed to core principles which are in essence liberal and they are committed to prove their lives and what we can experience in hungary but with retore clear and politically is a swing to a more populist and type who are loosed agenda and this is something that not only the german government is very concerned about but the german public in general and good a russian a the anti immigrant campaign is getting rather nasty and personal in
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a hungry i'm an addict is now personally targeting the hungary and born billionaire george soros saying he has liberal values that are dangerous why is he so intent on stopping soros. hungary has a history of external influence throughout its history so the soviet union influenced us before that the nazi germany influenced us and before dan allstream plans that so i'm going to have a very strict very strong tie to the notion of sovereignty so whenever someone mentions that there is some sort of external influence in hungary employed six it's always very strong it's it resonates very strongly with a large number of voters so that's how you or by use these n.g.o.s and cherish personally he had tax them as being external influences in hungary employed x. amount did external influence is why the opposition is trying to say that these n.g.o.s are very important to off l'arche in liberal democracy so there is doubt
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wary of campaign based on the n.g.o.s right now here i don't i mean how much of the german election was affected by immigration and merkel's decision to welcome nearly a million refugees and asylum seekers. since the greek crisis was replaced by the so-called refugee crisis although it's not really fair to put the blame on people in need and make them a crisis if it's as if it is a natural catastrophe. surveys showed that america's government and could lose elections if there would have been elections in two thousand and fifteen or two thousand and sixteen so it came almost as a surprise that america was reelected half a year ago during german parliamentary elections and one can clearly see a direct effect that for the first time in the history of the country there is a party in the parliament which is a right of the so-called conservative party although right now they wouldn't
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necessarily call themselves conservative americans christian democratic union and that's the identity of a doj learned which is a populists sort of movement not exactly a party yet that instrument and stream into lies is everything that can be used against the establishment like what we see as a blueprint from other populist movements let me stay with you for a second so where does merkel now stand on immigration currently and how much is immigration playing into the new term american repeated in the election campaign and after that she doesn't see any mistake that nothing has been done wrong maybe the communication wasn't perfect after two thousand and fifteen how to explain what this is all about but the general idea was germany is committed to humanitarian standards we signed international commitments and if people in need to come to germany germany is obliged to give
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a helping hand this is the idea and this is radically different from the conspiracy theory that was presented outside germany as if america tries to fix labor market shortages or change the composition of the. christian population of germany and turn it into a multicultural melting pot this is far from real and therefore determine government hasn't really changed anything in its position at moffitt good in london i mean viktor orban has come to serious blows with europe over immigration hasn't he i mean he sees brussels as part of the wider problem and not the solution in his drive to keep immigrants out so what's his beef with brussels briefly well that all band and also some of his other allies in central and eastern europe when they signed up to european integration did not think they were signing up to multiculturalism to the old people to cross borders they certainly didn't think
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they were signing up to do with the arrival of more than one million refugees and they see that as violating their traditions and their ability eat to as they see it defend their borders and defend their primarily their ethnic national communities and that is a very different vision of europe from from the vision that we would associate with them on your macro or angela merkel and just one quick point is that the divides in europe now between west and east and to a lesser extent between north and south and also between the elite and voters these are very deep divides that will be with us for some time to come. and the day rush not let me come back to you because victor o'bannon many people say is one of the few european leaders who says in public what others can only say behind closed doors he presents himself as the defender of european christianity and he warns
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about the dangers of what he calls islamization of europe how will other european leaders view this election particularly those on the right with nationalist and populist agendas do you think. or bus popularity and after all success is a driving force of federalism all are still should or be on the loose some of his support or should arm i mean a big debts that means a lot to all the populist in europe and also for the more mainstream parties as well because mainstream parties are looking for the opposition to win some key drew sticks at the very least to see that or by losing losing popularity the migration issue in hungary has been not as important as he forced two years ago so they they are looking at looking at other issues right now that could make the hungary a landscape very very different and that that could change behavior or even change the government and later britain and goodwin does viktor orban see other european
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leaders like angela merkel as too soft to tell it like it is i mean some people will say he actually has a point given that merkel paid such a heavy price politically for her softer immigration stance. well i think in essence this is a conflict of narratives and you don't really see a major problem of immigration in central in eastern europe so it's not about the numbers but it's about the perception and the general discours and countries like germany and france have experience with immigration and they also can see the practical benefits the german national team that is the world cup we know in football is a very different composition of ethnicity than it used to be in one nine hundred seventy four when we also won the world cup so there is a very different debate within the country including france and some other more multicultural country as compared to our most ethnically homogeneous countries
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poland for example has ninety nine percent of poles so it's of course a different debate but not only a different debate on what other challenges but also how the challenges are instrumentalist and to soft stance on something which in essence is a humanitarian obligation is something that is just absurd given the situation of people in need who otherwise would have died in syria oil's matthew goodwin in london let me come back to the point you were making earlier about splits within europe i mean obama launched his election campaign by lashing out at brussels germany and france accusing their leaders of being a danger to his country but he's also predicted as you say a split between east and western europe is that there any prospect then of e.u. integration or expansion really at that much of a risk. i think that the divides in europe are very sharp and very real and they continue to have some big consequences europe as
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a whole is moving to the right very quickly social democracy center left parties are having their worst results pretty much since history. since they were first formed and also at the same time we're seeing center right parties in europe so pasty in austria to reason may in britain also some center right politicians in germany effectively sounding exactly the same as the populist right and so i think europe at the most imminent is moving very quickly to the right that will have all kinds of affects going forward in how the e.u. approaches issues like the refugee crisis and so on and so all band will be at the center of that other side of the debate saying hang on a minute we didn't sign up for what they see as open borders we didn't sign up for what they see as excessive liberal values we didn't sign up for the breakdown of what they see as traditional morality a family the community and i expect those attacks will become louder in recent in
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coming years gentlemen stay with us will you because we're just going to broaden the argument out. as we've mentioned hungary is among several other e.u. countries taking a strong stance on immigration the german chancellor angela merkel was criticized for letting in nearly a million refugees in twenty fifteen and that cost her dearly in the elections and it took a month to put together a coalition government in austria right wing chanceless about current has been vocal against refugees said his goal is to confront any development of power no societies in austria and in italy the debate on immigration has stalled the government then the top two political parties are still in deadlock following the march for election day russian have let me come back to you for a second because viktor orban will say hang on a second look my policy has worked refugee numbers coming to hungary have collapsed since twenty fifteen and he spoke europe in the eye with a big stick as. yes it's kind
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of success that he'd like to propagate throughout the campaign that refugees rare here but now they aren't and this is that it is very reasonable here hungary that because hungary is basically an application which in this country we don't have much of much of an experience with their migration and it was a big shock when the first wave of migrants arrived at our border and there were indeed train stations very fool off migrants and the people people were shocked people were afraid of what's going to happen they were only travelling to hungary to reach their germany but it was still something that hungary has not seen before and now for the last two years this hasn't been an issue because of the fence that we got into government so this was a successful campaign that made our body popular but right now people are starting to forget what happened two years ago and they are starting to focus on other issues as well like health care education normally issues of a campaign and that might result in
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a popular radio four bond being less or less than expect. i'm matthew goodman in london i mean viktor orban has called the mainly muslim refugees a threat to europe's christian roots does his very blunt approach give voice to the fears of other european conservatives in places like italy austria and germany well if you look across europe as a whole today when there are what look at that two issues they say immigration and terrorism and i don't agree with the early a point that this is simply about countries that happen no experience with immigration we've just seen donald trump the elected president of the united states which has a long and well established history of immigration and multiculturalism and we've seen the vote for bret sit in britain which followed very high levels of immigration and so what i think we're seeing is people like viktor orban really
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looking at the west looking at the model of what's happening in the west the amount of immigration the amounts of liberal you know the spread of liberal values and i think that they just simply don't share that vision of europe and they want to push back against that so i personally think that people like all band will be with europe for many years to come. in berlin the e.u. announced last december it was taking poland the czech republic and hungary to its top court over their refusal to host asylum seekers but let me ask you that's not like it's a worry viktor orban is it i mean it's likely to perhaps even embolden him in the future isn't it. well of course it mobilizes domestically even people who are not explicitly supporters of orbán they essentially feel who hunger area and if there is pressure coming from outside as we've heard before this is a long history of external pressure on the hungary and people immediately respond like this but it puts something else in the center of the debate which is the need
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for an integrated immigration policy and even if the immigration policy is more what current right wing parties would like to see it will be something like an integrated european immigration policy which is urgently needed because without it we have border countries like greece and italy alone and they have a point in criticizing that there is a lack of solidarity in a value based organization like the european union so let me put that question to get their reaction a there in budapest is viktor orban like to be worried about the e.u. taking poland the czech republic and hungary to court over their refusal to accept quotas. are going to be varied about e.u. policy because european union money and general. funds are very important for the hunger an economy large percent of our growth is due to the e.u.
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funds so our money has to pay attention to what the what's happening in brussels and he wants to shape that we need his allies in poland the czech republic and maybe now in austria and italy. to make it a year old debt that you like he wants to see he doesn't want to see an integrated europe with integrated migration places but there are four nations with their separate identities with strong national identities that work together in issues that they want to work together on but they don't have to get there when some parties are not willing to take a share in the burden put in london many people are hungry see another victory as a threat to democracy and the end of a state built on the rule of law how worrying is this do you think. well i think it's certainly a serious challenge to that liberal conception of europe that we've discussed i personally do not think that voters in these countries are wanting to overthrow the
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democratic regime if you look at big surveys the world value survey for example public support for democracy is very very strong what we are seeing i would suggest is perhaps a transition away from that liberal conception of democracy the puts a big emphasis on pluralism and on the right of different groups to have a say over the over the decisions that affect everybody's lives and we're moving into a direct conception of democracy more referendums more citizens' initiatives more room for popular will and people like all ban all sound be me in italy or marine le pen in france all night to approach in britain are not only encouraging that shift but are tapping into that desire among voters that have more of a say over these key decisions they're in berlin so is this hunger an election then a threat to the liberal perception of democracy and the very values the core values
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of europe. well all one is clearly a figure that represents the old turn into to what used to be the narrative of a pluralist liberal europe and it's too early to tell in which direction things are moving but what is more concerning than the question of how many people in hungary are supported for democracy it's how the institutional architecture is changing if the system of checks and balances is not working according to what is necessary for a functioning court system and if the separation of power doesn't work anymore because the judicial system is getting more and more under control of the executive then you can give a lip service to i support democracy but how it works behind the scene and beyond what leaders have to say about in which direction they want to move the country this is what really concerns people who are supportive for a liberal and purest europe a russian
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a in budapest so what do you think the outcome of this election will mean then for the why the europe i mean we have walls being built we have breaks it we have populism we have extremism it all seems a bit gloomy for a liberal in free europe doesn't it. it's ken it's getting a lot of things for you know depending on what the result these mean turnout is sad higher than ever now that a man that means that. the winner which is likely to be our bond he can point to the turnout numbers and say that i'm more democratic than and anybody every one and democracy is history because seventy five percent of the vote there's there now ten voted for one party or the other and i still want a majority so that means that i very legitimate unlike other parties that might not have won a majority like for example in germany nobody has a majority because of the optical system hunger an actress's them is very different so it's good it could mean i mean that it strengthens the populist argument that the people are behind these popular sentiment throughout europe and they reject
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mainstream parties and misty might be what he is and the only parties we'd not do much support are putting forward decide the integrated year of math are good in a final thought from you so how is all of this then like to play out for the e.u. i mean populist leaders as you say are a thorn in the side of brussels so what is it you want to see and i'm very well i think in the immediate short term we'll see and reelected today and i think we did move to the elections in sweden where we'll see a strong result of the populist right sweden democrats and don't forget next year in the spring of twenty nineteen we have those big european parliament elections elections across the continent and i think what we're going to see over the next three to five uses the effects of the financial crisis could continue to linger on as the effects of the refugee crisis and also terrorism in the security issues continues to play out i think we will continue to see a fairly sharp right with drift across europe where people like emmanuel macro day
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actually become the outliers they are the exception to the rule the trend and thanks to all our guests are russian am but a past in berlin and matthew goodwin london. thank you too for watch and you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com unfed the discussion go to off ace book page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter. a j inside story for me down jordan on the home team here goodbye from.
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getting to the heart of the matter if not stuff i can gee the turkish cypriot leader calls you today and says let's have talks would you accept facing realities what do you think reunification of look like there are two people think the peace corps unification is the only option for prosperity of south korea hear their story on talk to al-jazeera. the nature of news as it breaks this was a great a lecture about it was going to win but it was about by how much with detailed coverage the syrian civil war in the lives and to its teeth yes but what is new different is that each day some people will live until to morrow so many innocent people will die from around the world the bats and balls are several years old still really good players could end up trading cricket academy and maybe one day
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play for the national team. tracing the fall from prosperity to financial ruin this is precisely the movement where we humanized nothing worse first world the inquiry the devastating impact to save the big means also to save the deposits of in the recent years and the failure to prevent disaster banks and political leaders of the people who needed to learn a less gora from democracy to the markets on al-jazeera. al-jazeera. swear every.


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