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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 117  Al Jazeera  April 27, 2018 8:32pm-8:46pm +03

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such as there was in the previous sunshine era if america and there weren't seventy sections or sometimes none at all so it's actually we can't take this on trust there's nothing in the new issue in the statement other than generalities when it comes to the summit with trump we're going to have to fill that box as concretely as the little south books you see with him saying he was very filled with some very concrete things in the into korean some and we've got to have that you know maybe want to go into that have a bit of running ahead but you know verification declaration in trees all sorts of stuff without which i don't think we can go forward unfortunately all the other stuff yet no it's ok let's let's let's run with that for a bit jeff mccann what do we need to say we've got this commitment to daneyko is the peninsula house and say do you think came to that commitment what do we need to see happen well in terms of optics i think we can get the sense that he is sincere or at least trying to look sincere and that's a first step because before that was really the case before today and in terms of
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moving forward i really see this in terms of three stages and phase one is the emotional part and that's really what the pomp and ceremony for today through optics is about this was a highly calibrated bunch of choreography that occurred quite successfully and second the second phase would be dealing with economics and there is a lot of back and forth about whether economics assistance will be given or not but what we do know is that that's what north korea wants but for it to receive something it must give something it's a quid pro quo the very basics of negotiation so we'll have to see that come to play in the next iteration when kids are going to start from and the thirty masterpieces dealing with security and it's a very complex issue of course and it's been something that's been very elusive so normally in a complex negotiation more time states are going to seem like this you would be held up to the back state age but it's it's unclear because the parties want it at different times of the. goshi asian but these three phases i think are part of the
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interlinked ok and we do have this mention of high level military talks next month that's pretty significant as the net and one wonders what will be topping the the general of agendas that goes towards yes i mean the military component is always there in the korean peninsula and it was there today because the are ok in the u.s. joint military drills were suspended specifically for the best and that in itself is a big big statement that the u.s. is going to stop when baked for this peace process to maybe come to fruition at least in the early stages and of course afterwards the joint grockles won't occur with facts what will be the issue of the number of u.s. troops u.n. troops in the korean peninsula all these things have to be ironed out but of course you know you rome wasn't created in a day and peace can't be created in the korean peninsula in a day also i think we have to be very patient we have to be optimistic and guarded
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at the same time because as even mentioned the declaration today has some echoes of the declaration of two thousand and seven so we can't be fully trusting but as maybe reagan said trust but verify ok and as many would say if we just look at what north korea's nuclear capability is at this point because it has been suggested that kim is willing to look up to mr to be absurd to move forward with denuclearization because he already has a nuclear weapon do you think that might be the case actually i do and i think that before we get very very far down the nuclear road everybody hard to start it all at this time. we're going to put the pessimist a speaking now denuclearization of the whole peninsula is the phrase the north koreans used so there must be a quid pro quo from the south in the past that the north has said it wants u.s. troops out we've heard others south. as for the rich of course wants to put the
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pics but a lot of the stuff even before the summit saying that actually now they've backed away from that well we need to see what the quid pro quo is that demanded and of course the global position is very different that north korea is the only state that's ever joined the nonproliferation treaty and then left it it's got analysts many un resolutions against it unanimous many sections and so other words they are in violation and they've got to stop unconditionally a little isn't going to do that i think it's only because they have the all of the stuff of the last year that i think kim jong un is not confident that he will not have the fate of iraq or libya or you cray because he's got this thing and not that's not the same as giving up this thing so there's going to be some real difficulty when we get further down the nuclear road come down do you echo those those concerns me how likely is it for example that down the road perhaps not too far kim jong un is going to allow weapons inspectors kill weapons inspectors in if
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he is that on his radar at all well in theory down the road if north korea would improve its relations with other major powers in the region if north korea's security environment fundamentally you proved a north korea for sure would not rely so much on nuclear weapons for its security but that really requires a fundamental change of relationship between north korea and south korea and also between north korea united states. basically north korea requires u.s. and south korea to provide sufficient security guarantee you know order for north to consider denuclearization however as we are no security guarantee is bad definition reversible it's basically a political commitment to not threaten the other side but these commitments can be withdrawn any time so it's very difficult for north korea to. trost of this
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security guarantee and therefore as we all saw in north korea no longer demanding the u.s. and south korea to provide such scrutiny guarantee in the longer required of the us to withdraw its troops from south korea i think that's a signal to north korea also no longer think about completely give up its nuclear weapons so for the forseeable future i think north korea would likely. continue to keep some nuclear capabilities in the meantime to might agree to make some concessions for example the north korean leader kim jong un has already made explicit a high level political commitment to the to me go of denuclearization in addition to that north korea seems waiting to take concrete measures in the direction of freezing its nuclear capabilities i think encouraging steps that would start
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a process of direct engagement and in the long run you can gauge humans might help build some trust and enough trust my to make a north korea weeding to take a more radical steps in the future to words rolling back its capabilities and wants a poor thought or indeed leverage can china employ here of course it toughened up those economic sanctions against north korea some say that might have been responsible for bringing kim to the table in the first place but have since been reports just reports at this stage that china has been loosening some of those sanctions again and trade has resumed across the border so what is china's stance right now. well i disagree with the premise that it is the economic sanctions that. forced a north korea to change its policy in recent months i think the primary driving force to be had and north korea's charm offensive was the simple fact that north
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korea has already acquired a basic but credible nuclear strategic deterrent by the end of twenty seven thousand and after achieving that north korea was able to offer some self restraint is hope is to keep its nuclear weapons and to build a normal relationship with other countries that bases and another important factor here is the strategic rivalry the strategic a competition between the two major powers china united states is also growing in recent months the united states has clearly defined a china as this most important alone term strategic competitor as a result china grows increasingly worried to north korea my to develop a closer relationship with united states of them with china so now we are seeing china united states actually in a competition to quarter north korea to develop good relations with north korea
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right ok against their better just running out and i'm doing this now you can tell me you're shaking your head there is it just to be if you want to respond to that and then not get back to. i don't think china needs to her or he too much on that score i mean your cation we get at these things said but i mean the idea of any sort of close relationship it was opposed to a pragmatic let's solve the in the nuclear issue i think between the u.s. and north korea given that the whole history between them i think is fanciful i mean the u.s. even before sanctions had its own trading with the enemy sanction doesn't trade with china is the neighbor but china has the historical associations ninety percent of north korea's trade even now as with china if china is really where i can see it i'm sure a bit more why that south korea will compete for influence and pyongyang but the us i must admit i don't see that ok i guess we are just coming to the end i want to look ahead little to the summit between trump and kim what more do you think the white house wants to see from a summit than what was achieved today and a bit of
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a tit for quest some afraid is there any concern that the u.s. objectives might de rail the progress that's already been made. well i'll take the second question first i think yeah there might be slight concern because the pronouncement today of the ration was emphatic and it was very very noteworthy and it takes a little bit of the spotlight away from donald trump and you know one thing about donald trump is that you like the spotlight and but on the other hand there is forward momentum a lot of all mental movement behind the back of this conversation about peace in the korean peninsula from which don't trump can leverage and basically what the u.s. and the don't trumpet like to do in my view is take this process to the finish line not that to basically get to i.c.b.m. states zero on that time in late may early june but to create a concrete detailed framework and process to get there and we're he can claim
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a win and kim jong un can claim a win and something president reagan can clear out when along with the other parties in a russian accent or so that is something that everyone wants and we're actually quite in the process towards getting there of course there's a lot of challenges and you know curbs on a revote but we're definitely on that path ok ten seconds a you hopeful for the future on the peninsula yes yes i am on the peninsula from time to slightly worried that good relations all the pundits there which is wonderful and so on everyone will think oh well let's let them keep the nukes and that really wouldn't be a good idea ok fascinating stuff many thanks to all of you for joining us abel scott a tongue and just back head. and thank you very much for watching you can see the program again any times by visiting a website that's al-jazeera dot com and a further discussion to guys who are facebook page that's face but dot com for slash a.j. inside story it also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a.j.
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inside story from a laura cod and the whole team here by. a very important force of information for many people around the world when all the cameras have gone i'm still here go into areas that nobody else is going to talk to people that nobody else is talking to and bringing that story to the forefront. rewind returns with
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a new series of people back to life i'm sorry i'm brand new updates on the best of documentaries there has been a number of reforms since the prior gram was full continues with us we were following orders we sing young people to fight these wars put them in the most complex situations you can imagine and have them make life and death decisions rewind on al-jazeera and the. u.s. and british companies have announced the biggest discovery of natural gas but what to do with these untapped natural resources is already a source of heated debate nothing much has changed they still spend most of their days looking forward to full drive. five years on the syrians still feel battered or even those who managed to escape their country have been truly unable to escape the war. on counting the cost why iran's nuclear deal
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and all the powerful factors are at play in a new game of oil it could mean steeper prices at the pump. and into korean summit but what would a saw in relations mean for their economy. counting the cost. he has no passport yet he's politically active in two countries i was the only one that will let stand the power had peaceful transition when because the short term expired in our part of the world some people think you are stupid and crazy if you do that mikhail saakashvili former president of georgia and ex governor of the odessa region in ukraine talks to al-jazeera.


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