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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 175  Al Jazeera  June 24, 2018 8:32pm-8:51pm +03

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more evenly because. president donald trump has made a fresh call to deport illegal migrants saying they should be sent back to where they came from immediately and without a court case. he made the comments after protesters trying to block a hoss carrying migrant children to u.s. holder mexico. russian astronauts have targeted province in southwest syria is the first time moscow has provided as support for the syrian government's offensive which was launched last week to recapture the area bordering georgia. those are the headlines stay with us and al-jazeera next up is a story. is
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the battle for the rock decisive for the war in syria the province which was the cradle of the syrian revolution is under massive bombardment would victory for the government sick little an end to more than seven years of fighting and what are the regional implications of the battle this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program i'm dennis though it was. in the city of daraa that spot syria's revolution in twenty eleven but what started as a peaceful uprising has turned into a war that has killed hundreds of thousands and it's up rooted millions is drawn in an assortment of foreign powers and now with the backing of russia iran and the
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lebanese militia hezbollah president assad is seeking to retake control of daraa one of the last remaining rebel held areas there are is in the far south west of syria and government forces of massed in the region they're shelling and they're dropping barrel bombs and some reports suggest that they're getting support from russia in the air campaign but this was supposed to be a deescalation zone agreed by russia the united states and jordan well that agreements clearly now null and void much to the consternation of neighboring countries the u.s. has reportedly told the syrian rebels not to expect to military support in southern syria so why is there are so sensitive apart from it symbolic significance as the birth race of the revolution the province is considered strategically important it's on the border with jordan and it stretches all the way to these radio golan heights and as we've mentioned the u.s.
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russia and jordan agreed last year to include darragh as part of full so-called deescalation zones designed to reduce the fighting in syria. well syria's government has urged rebels to give up their weapons but so far they're refusing to recognize president bashar assad can and. we don't recognize assad's authority he has destroyed our cities and killed our people he destroyed syria to stay in power we will never recognize him and we reject the presence of iranian and afghan militias it's only syrians who should decide the future of the country arliss introduce our guest now from beirut we have sami nada who is director of the levant institute for strategic affairs from london we have mahmoud no our retired jordanian air force general and from events in italy via skype joshua landis director of the center for middle east studies at the university of oklahoma thank you all very much indeed for joining us can i start
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with you mark moon in london because the words there we've just heard of that f.s.a. commander suggest that any kind of political deal is not at all acceptable they're not prepared to accept the authority of the government of president assad so a battle is inevitable my question therefore is what sort of support to the rebels have and are they likely to be completely wiped out from this. i think they lost the whole support from the region and from the american and their friends. as the american suggested that they should put any assumption that the american will interfere on that region of southern part of the job the southern part to see so i think they are in deep trouble. if i were them i'll go i'll stay on my land and keep the current map as is and our last quarterly conciliation.
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that's will be another route a lot of people will be killed if the battle state or remain on and we see the next also with the russian air power which is dominant force and i think they should proceed on that direction because they will lose it at the end of it i don't want socialism but at the time what sort of weaponry what sort of results is that they have at their disposal they have life machinery and they don't have like heavy tanks or. defense should. be silent or even they're short of these things and i don't think the american or the voting country would support them they should read that very carefully and they should. read the battle very carefully or so good decision on that and
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by doing that they will they will not give the regime just a vacation to keep on attacking them and killing these people i think is the biggest dictator in our part of the world and i don't think the syrian people got the solution to litigate reform or whatever the case they want the gene change and what the the. the interviewer said just the orion justa is this battle the battle for the ra is this a definitive moment in syria's war i it is you the war is largely come to an end there are two major three major pockets that were made that this southern one that we're talking about now it lip which turkey may try to hold on to and of course the large kurdish region in the north that persian arab region about the bradys that the united states. presently holds with it skirted and the arab allies
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there so those are the three areas that assad has promised to take back it's beginning with this one because it seems to be the most. least well defended and the the most vulnerable because jordan ultimately wants to open the roads with damascus wants to get back on a regular footing damascus it wants to send refugees home the united states is not going to defend this region there are dozens of militias there including an isis and hideout. how would an american what would america's long term plan b. if they intervened to save these militias when they help them establish a state with a protect them forever it's unclear and america has made it very you know very i think very clear that it's not going to do that right is he completes the arrangement was negotiated a year ago took more to use the united states wanted to fight isis today isis
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destroyed so the object which was to get syria russia the united states and everybody focused on fighting heists is now no longer there and so that's why the syrian regime has turned its attention to to right ok sami coming to you we heard in the little clip from the f.s.a. command that their afghan militia is involved in the fight as well as as the well known raney and mrs taking part on the on the side of the government but this is being described as a potential powder keg for a regional wide a regional fight a battle which is alarming many including the u.n. secretary general why is there are so sensitive an area in terms of the enver rule region. because it is in the solace and the solace of syria. is the scene of confrontation between two major players.
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and iran let's not forget. the solace of syria was subject to. a deal between the jordan russia and america that was decided on in september of last year and it was confirmed during the summit between fourteen and trump last november and now this is a serious breach of this deed and at the core of this he was training in the presence. is that iran demand was that iran has to be. forty to fifty kilometers from far from this border this is the core of the deed and today this back to will decide that you're reigning in the presence and its capability to engage with since day one you're on was trying to
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change the rules of engagement. is rare so now russia is russia testing that ability of america to defend this d. is it trying to test that readiness of that effort as a all or that is a deal that has been already. decided on and russia which. according to which iran will withdraw from that is that i.e.d. border and in exchange of that russia is the claiming that this will be on that at this point all let's just say what do you think is that sammy seems to suggest that perhaps there is a deal that compose all of the policy. to the conflict back from the brink or do you think that they are basically just ignoring the warnings that have been given by the united states that is prepared to take firm and appropriate measures if the
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regime continues to to. create violence in what is supposed to be this deescalation zone what do you think well i don't think that they really have come to a deal i think they have talked around the parameters as your guest just explains but iran has said we're staying in israel has demanded that it leave altogether there doesn't seem to be any final agreement on the other hand. it seems quite clear that israel is capable of drawing red lines in syria it has attacked the iranians in the north up near book kemal in the south it has been very successful in destroying all of the potential iranian bases missile implant juices and so forth the united states i think is not stepping in it's made it clear it will not step in because it believes that israel is perfectly
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capable of defending itself in this region that its air force and its technology is far superior to the iranians now that doesn't mean that the iranians are going to sit back they make them to you to probe we just saw you know in the last twenty four hours that a drone was sent towards the goal line israel sent up rockets against it it turned around there is going to be this kind of jousting i believe and iran is repositioning of self but israel is quite capable and certainly very able to attack syria at will and i don't think that anybody is really worried that israel is going to be pushed into the sea all right i'm sick all right mamoun just how has described will what could happen to be out of the series of just staying as if you like but at the end of the day it is a small fragile jewel that is going to bear the brunt of any escalation of the cove in this particular region how fragile is jordan at this moment. very
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fragile and with the only respect i disagree with fully with your previous speak speak about that system and see the escalations on never meant that it's a save even or demobilize on and what that meant really is staying said stay in power and regain the territory for him. the it in an invasion expansion. is a day to get limited capability to stop the iranian man over ability in the area or politically and militarily so. these coalitions on has no meaning now after the regime got there are back for jordan yes it's a matter of time and they will get regain the nessie but crossing. to jordan that's very important crossing point and the main concern of joel that is the chaos and
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they're the future with our intend the problem now consenting economy and some instability i could say in jordan now regarding changing prime minister with all this influx of refugees that sort of be a big trouble. affect our demography and our way of life and our economy all absolutely i mean we've all seen that doesn't get we've all seen those so demonstrate all this land you know may i may carry on about in a five second only board never been based on promises and guarantee as damn many can. way of doing things promising the it habitants initially and all of sudden they cover them back and this is the way they do it. also avoid all the dishes not base their strategy on promises and guarantee from them eric and they should have
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a plan b. to stop or force a save haven for these provisions because jordan cannot take it anymore and it's very difficult situation we are absolutely in sami because of course we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there are civilians who are pretty much pinned in they've got a close border with jordan and they've got an encroaching military attack coming their way what do they do what do these hundreds of thousands of civilians do. yeah exactly and that are you have more than eight hundred thousand civilian living there and if these military developments will lead to a new flood of refugees to to jordan jordan it's like lebanon in a very funny tidal situation not the only politically like in lebanon but economically i mean would it we're talking about an economic collapse of two
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regions or two countries that are bordering casey via and if this is to happen it will have really very damaging consequences on all that region we have seen that about two million refugees a threat and the whole europe of i would not say collapse but put europe in big trouble in jordan and lebanon we are talking about four million syrian refugees for the total population of sixty eight million so this is to put things in perspective are i think secretary of the united nations has had likewise were in saying that this has to stop at least to. to contain or to stop a possible new flood of refugees that will have a very dramatic consequences on the region absolutely said joshua how can this be
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averted i'm particularly taken by a report by the international crisis group which suggests that given that the rebels cannot mount any kind of credible military defense they need to be party to some sort of agreement some sort of deal whereby the states the states of president assad we takes control of the area and they agree on how to be governed. yes the the international crisis group put out a very good reports it for saw the realities that you are drawn out in this program which is that there could be a big flood of refugees into jordan which could destabilize that region and it hoped that america would put pressure on the refugees to draw to withdraw from the region and not to put up a fight so that it would not turn into the root of the problem with this however is
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that the redness are determined to stay in place at least that's what they've set and i think that they're trying to use the anxiety and the leverage of a potential flood of refugees into jordan's in order to get the united states and local powerhouse to step in to put pressure on us and to try to use that as leverage and so this is a game of chicken that we're seeing right now it's you know everybody agrees that the rebels did not have the balance of power in their favor that they can't survives but they want better terms they want somebody to come in and provide them with guarantees which will be negotiable and how we get there it's unclear what the americans can guarantee them whether it's money whether it's a safe haven someplace i don't know and that muff moon it seems very much as they timed.


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