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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 318  Al Jazeera  November 15, 2018 3:32am-4:00am +03

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coalition which is throwing its weight behind another round of un led talks to end the conflict data is the main entry port for both food and aid the un security council has vetoed voted in fact to lift sanctions against every train an arms embargo that's it freeze and travel ban were imposed in two thousand and nine and it claims eritrea supported al-shabaab fighters in somalia the u.n. vote follows a thawing of relations between eritrea and its neighbors after years of cold a top u.s. aid to the trumpet ministration has been forced to step down from her position after being criticized by the first lady lollie of trumper disagreement with mira ricardo all a deputy national security advisor during a tour of africa tobar ricard will move into a new role within the administration those are the headlines more news in half an hour inside story is next.
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what's the future for libya seven years after the fall of dictator moammar gadhafi armed groups control much of this oil rich country international talks in italy aimed at uniting libya so what hope finally the peace this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program dennis for more than forty years libya was ruled with an iron fist by a dictator moammar gadhafi until his reign came to a bloody end that was in twenty eleven but since then the country's been torn by
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civil war two rival governments dividing the country into east and west and both backed by different countries and international conference in israeli hoped to find a way to end the violence and to provide libya with some form of stability the only breakthrough a commitment to a u.n. plan for elections to be held next year we'll get to our guests shortly but first jonah how reports from the conference that was held in poland. thirty countries attended this conference on libya's future but what really matters took place among just a few for the first time in six months the country's two main power players met in the presence of their foreign backers general hurley for half dollar who controls libya's east is supported by egypt russia and france fires also rose heads the un and italian backed government in the capital tripoli the atmosphere was described
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as core deal leading u.n. envoy has made to declare the conference a success more will be a member. of the mice gone and common effort had by woodward and france. have a clear path forward out of this if your way. in which they can be. the measure of success here the apparent agreement of the parties and international leaders to follow a new un timeline it foresees and national conference taking place in libya to decide on a format for elections to take place by the middle of next year. we want to reassure and ensure six million libyan citizens men and women who wish to vote to decide their destiny and have stability with the united libya a stable libya looking forward to reach these goals libya is our friend we have been linked for
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a long time what has emerged of substance from this conference then is a new u.n. action plan that picks up where many others have failed it provides what the u.n. envoy described as a clear path forward for libya it is a path down which the libyans themselves not the international community must lead . but the timeline is tight you know resource rich country riven with often violent internal rivalries and with foreign powers backing opposite sides to serve their own conflicting interests the palermo conference saw no written commitments nothing signed the un envoy is a clear path forwards then appears to be based on little more than trust john a whole al-jazeera lomo italy. time to introduce our guests now joining us from tripoli is salah. a political analyst and former senior adviser to the negotiating team of the high council of
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state and into ness in neighboring tunisia u.s. of sharif a researcher in international relations welcome to you both seller can i start with you in tripoli does palermo and this plan for a consultative conference to be held inside libya early next year followed by elections by june of next year does this instill you with a great deal of confidence that libya is finally on the path to peace i think it's. an opportunity and new opportunity it provides a different. framework negotiating framework then the one unfair our than the one that was adopted even in a little more brings together all the libyan players. have a stake in the issues at hand it will discuss more substantial issues such as
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the constitutional framework and the distribution of the wealth of the country which is the core of the struggle in libya now and sell us staying with you how much is this process which are gas and salomé says is a milestone on the path forward how much is this process reliant upon the buy in of the libyan people six and a half million if you. as you as you know you know i have nations mission conducted about seventy to eighty meetings around the entire country attended by over a thousand people and they produce the report the summarizes what the population most likely wants to see and that's the building block for the conference
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additionally there was. there was a stalemate between the h.-o. or the house of representatives and the state council and the. presidential council about how to progress and we've spent about two years since the implementation of the libyan political agreement produce of there are without any progress so that's what forces i guess a sense that imus and into adopting the second step plan if you like and go into a national conference with more participles than just before that we saw in right ok coming to you then yourself in tunis we saw an array of international actors attending this conference simpler. everybody seems to have a vested interest some kind of interest in the future of libya a briefly if you can tell us why for instance the french are so highly involved the
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italians perhaps we can explain as a former colonial power but what about russia what about egypt. i think this summarizes perhaps one of the biggest problems in media say is that there are a lot of international interference in news and the hope is that the international community is extremely involved happening in media as you rightly pointed in the rush hour which is far away their friends which also was many colonial power in media were actually more of a colonial pirate than the whole north africa and the sad region i think has a lot of interest there that you of course but we've. seen almost everybody presented in this conference but not at their highest level as you can see the american president was not there the french president was not there the russian president was not there were there was medvedev was there surprise there are some present from what does that indicate what does that indicate the fact that
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the french president was or wasn't there for instance. wednesday's kind of i won't call it low level but medium level attendance at these national grid he's very interested in india and invested in media but not necessarily interested in finding a solution today and they keep disagreeing with each other and that's why they send everyone ten second or you third i think it's been so that the conflict doesn't doesn't get too high among them but there is a big disagreement between most of the players india and not only them there is also the regional players that we're talking about it is up to you even at that about saudi arabia about to see all of them were either very low lou we're presented or like what happened with thirty they withdrew from the conference the international community although there is an image of investment in fact they keep disagreeing with each other and that evening the problems of p.b.s. is so solid this what appears to be
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a huge international. backing the u.n. sponsored plan that libya is it is it more of a hindrance than being helpful given as as eunice's just pointed out the kind of squabbling that we've seen particularly between france and this is a. i think i think the french president. was to save himself the embarrassment of the presiding over of the funeral of the paris agreement definitely this palermo conference burrowed the paris agreement buried in him attempt by the house the state council and the house of representatives to remove saraj moved full speed ahead with the international with the national conference i think the. the conflict between france and italy
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is overblown but i believe that italian interference helped give the libyans a chance to have a say in what happens next instead of being forced on the immorality french egyptian train heading straight to a collision with right now that there is a candidate and for election can i just interrupt you there and ask perhaps presumptuously that you're sitting in tripoli the tripoli administration of course is backed by the italian government but the french government is is noted for its support for the hafta and for the authorities in the east in benghazi is that informing your opinion somewhat. yes but the but what the french the egyptians and the marquees i believe lately. have reached. an understanding or a conclusion that have has done all he can do and they can no longer
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hope that after will overtake the west of the country were all the major government installations are where the central bank is and where the national oil company is and that's why i think they are. resigned to the fact that the national conference will probably be the best thing and try to get the best outcome for half his followers general haftar of course is a military man salary isn't he he's known for being a modern day strongman if you like and if he's to be involved in this process now he's going to have to do politics can he do politics in order to turn what is military power military control in the east of the country can he turn that into political power. i have to have is that harks back to the generals and the military people of the arab world in the
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fifty's and sixty's and he believes that politics are like everybody else politics is an extension of war and that's why i think everybody had tried to convince them that there will be no military solution he will be in the national conference but he's not going to be a lone ranger and there there will be a lot of other people a lot of other military people a lot of people who have military power from zlata and santana and so on so he won't have as much power as he had in paris or rome and. so we've talked a lot about how there are many international players who've got an interest in what goes on in libya but explain for us if you will this significance of the fact that turkey one of the supporters of the authorities or the the players if you like in
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the west of the country turkey walked out saying the vice president saying he was deeply disappointed but was that all about and how significant is that. well that's very significant and. i think that the defense i don't have the full with us for that event but probably what we've seen is actually a very few irreparable between italy and needed in the in the lead in and some was a lot of good. which is from a pragmatic point of view is perhaps right but because we're from a us back to the perspective that's not this is that what should happen and from insurgents and the other perspective that's definitely not likely to happen so that there's been because that's when they that and. and so they walked out but not only them as you can see their prison base in there was a far as i know it was not
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a reason vision something so how can you how can you find it on the international level on video without having to present that there so again when who is the i think in the coming months is yes the conference with big they think early two thousand but one who is. fighting from. that he would continue his. move forward because who he sees instead but he believes that he can begin to think that he can just think and remember it's been hasn't been used fighting there is. hopeless and that it was completely destroyed but by the end of the day he was a bigot and i think that's what he thinks he can do but again he thinks that what he can do not necessarily and he can do so he will continue fighting he will get the backing from his from the from. and from from the other side as well or other funding or backing ours that we'd be fighting to get after so that
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we would go there with the congress in early two thousand nine. hundred perhaps with the not meeting people you've got the. several places in libya and and the current situation will. continue as this tell is that something you agree with i mean this sounds as though it's going to be one of the major stumbling blocks is the continuation of armed conflict and and the widespread availability of weapons in libya among the militias this is a myth about how strong after is that me tell you this year a group of running again guards of the. of the oil facilities took over half there as the biggest possession the. refineries in twenty four hours he had to bring in the
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help from mohamad to be the son of with reese the be the president of chad to retake those facilities and he was forced to hand them back to the government in tripoli where he talks about his control of ninety percent of libya a doesn't control in is anything other than the east. and and so it's oversimplification and exaggeration of his power and that's why we fell into the trap of europeans trying to appease hafta based on exaggerations propagated by the egyptians and the french and the immoralities there's also says he cannot move on tripoli tripoli is protected by two big forces that he has no way of fighting them or defeating them the forces of the florida and the forces of the. so i don't expect any more fighting in libya major fighting in
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libya other than a scrimmage is in the sea in the east or the south i think all right we will move to our national conference and move then in september probably to election all right so what do you see as being the major pitfalls are the possible hurdles the obstacles than that could fall in the way of progress toward this national conference ana i think there are two issues here. we have agreed that this is going to be a new negotiating framework there will be a problem in the selection of who's going to attend and always not the second thing is what is this conference going to be talking about and what is expected to produce we know that whatever this conference is expected to produce will be adopted by through a resolution of the security council that will give it some kind of our legitimacy
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to bypass the house of representatives and the state council so the issues that would be discussed there it seems like we're going to discuss the division of of. of all revenues and also the type of. government system libya wants to have i think these are the obstacles and solomon has to work very hard on overcoming them and yourself we sent quite a bit of time talking about the politics of the situation and i think the national into messick but we haven't really looked at the economics you can't really divorce the two can you without economic progress in libya there's very little chance that any kind of political solution is going to work and for that presumably libya needs a huge amount of investment. true but no one would invest in the country in war which is something that's that's not only concerns media but also if you think you
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need that which is in a much the in and in a situation of ease but people do not invest because a for the for the stability so even more when it comes to to a country where some acts of war i think in place but also need those who need need either i think the test for unification of the central banks and the and the oil and the oil producing companies which is happening but not totally and that i still if you think in place there this was actually discussed infallible and there were announcements that that these programs would be seek but again we're talking about the regions of the of indents. very nice statements i think that i think that i mean and i still use and in doing the do they need to keep that as they were able to achieve things that reality on the ground is a bit different and the economy and i think that's what was that people inside
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c.b.s. that are feeding and and c.b.s. are depressed about the future incomes of the economic situation and one one point that i want to add that relates the economy to war is that there was and what economy that was created the media in two thousand and eleven and so you have a lot of media on the ground that do drive thanks to the currency of the door and they will they will not be fast easy there are their weapons and their privileges because of these present and united economy situation that makes them benefit from from a lot of from a lot of things and. i'm looking at figures out from the national oil corporation which is said to oil and gas revenues in the first half of this teen was thirteen point say. six billion dollars libya is still pumping even in this precarious state
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is pumping one point two million barrels per day that's a huge amount but then i go i want to see that the national oil corporation is managing to turnover so much production as a result of entering into security arrangements with various militias i mean that surely not sustainable is it no it's not sustainable but i mean the national oil companies doing a very decent job under the circumstances but with our own. in an environment with this much political division of course you cannot secure these facilities you cannot bring in vestments and the economy will lead behind but i think the situation is much better than than two years ago or even last year which will give the the national conference a better chance to succeed i know that today for example this week the liquidity crunch has started to ease and people are starting to be able to
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withdraw more than a thousand dinars a week is said of five hundred dinars a month so i think things are moving a little bit better of course these are not solutions to our structural economic problems in libya but i think it's progress in that i think the the the west the international community has to allow libyans a chance to solve this problem and keep the regional powers and international powers away and i hope that will happen specially with the cooperation of the russians and the egyptians with the italians and use of this national dialogue that has been underway that feller's mentioned it included the participation of more than eight thousand people which actually is not a huge amount of. a huge proportion of the six and a half million libyans that exist but nonetheless what exactly does this
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conference that is shattered to be held next year what exactly should that conference yield in order for libya to be able to move on to democratic elections within the space of months you know it's important to have this kind of conferences and. it's going to be to be hopeful and optimistic about them because at least that gives the dialogue bowing and takes away a little bit from from the barrel of weapons but my fear is that this is yet another conference about similar to the one we had in i mean bigger than the one we had once we had in palermo and embarrassed but similar to the perhaps the one that took place over months you know and the final result is again disagreements and disagreements what what does come what sort of compromise has to do i think first of all what is needed to have is to separate the problem in media and be there is there in the local problem libyans among themselves there is
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the regional problem and here we have if it is then it is the fact that the syrians and so on and that is the international problem and here we have the values the brand the russians and so on and these are completely different. issues that people to be so pretty so i think the priority is to work on one of these drugs before going to a national conference that would be and the exact repeat of what we've seen with with straight out and with very very limited results at that point i'm afraid gentlemen we have to leave it there thank you very much indeed push in tripoli and he said sharif in tunis thank you both very much indeed and as ever thank you for watching the pray that you can see it again any time you like by going to the web site al jazeera dot com should you want more discussion you can get our facebook page facebook dot com for a slash eighteen side story. there's always the conversation on twitter as well our handle is at a.j. inside story i'm at martin dennis for me and the whole team here in doha it's by
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