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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 362  Al Jazeera  December 29, 2018 2:32pm-3:01pm +03

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sent territory of the entire country the united nations says he thief fights is a being redeployed inside the port city of her data as part of the u.n. sponsored deal between huth easing the government signed in sweden all parties have agreed to begin a prenup routes to allow aid through starting with the had dated tucson a road saudi led forces in yemen to using child soldiers according to interviews in the new york times thousands have reportedly been recruited to fight with the promise of good salaries it says more experience change a week fighters from the conflict in darfur called. are also working as mercenaries security forces in bangladesh run high led a day ahead of a general election campaign ended with more arrests and violence the main opposition bangladesh nationalist party says thousands of its activists have been detained since november you're up to date with headlines more news here after inside story by fire.
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russia's new hypersonic missile. new watch is the test firing of the kremlin's latest weapon flying at twenty seven times faster than the speed of sound means it could reach the united states or anywhere else within minutes how big a threat is it this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program i'm glad i'm here putin is describing it as an
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excellent new year's gift to the nation russia's president is hailing the successful testing of a new missile as guaranteeing security for decades to come supersonic missile systems are slower than hypersonic flying at many times the speed of sound they're designed to evade missile shield systems to strike anywhere in the world putin says nothing can shoot it down. and one got the new of unguarded system is invincible against any existing and future enemy missile defenses it's a great success a great victory it will be deployed next year and we'll be joined by a regiment which will be put on judy we will move forward in accordance with our plans promising military arm systems to equip the army and navy so what do we know about the album guard missile the kremlin says it flies at thirty thousand kilometers an hour that hypersonic speed is designed to make it extremely difficult to intercept or predict its flight path. current missile defense systems can't stop
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hypersonic attacks while russia says it's the first country to go hypersonic u.s. and chinese experts are racing to perfect their technology the development of hypersonic weapons is increasing concerns about a new arms race and there's a threat to a cold war treaty which limits existing weapons donald trump accuses russia of repeatedly violating the i.n.f. treaty and is threatening to pull out putin has warned if that happens russia will develop new missile systems russia has violated the agreement they've been violating it for many years that i don't know why president obama didn't negotiate who are full out. and we're not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and go out and do weapons and we're not allowed to we're the ones that have stayed in the agreement and we bonded it grab it but russia is not unfortunately on to their dream and so we're going to terminate it we're going to pull out. all right let's bring in our guests
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in vienna thought of his former head of the verification and security policy coordination office at the international atomic energy agency in moscow pavol felgenhauer is defense analyst and columnist with the newspaper. and in washington d.c. richard waits is director of center for political military analysis at the hudson institute welcome to the program let me start with you there has been no independent confirmation of this test right the avodart missile system is it really close to being operational. well there is a sudden doubt in western circles i believe the united states is still doubtful about its initial operational capability which was announced to be twenty nineteen people also doubt whether the missile or the device can reach a mac twenty in terms of speed but nonetheless says you mentioned in your introduction united states china and russia as well as india are all working to
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it's developing these advanced hypersonic glide vehicles richard just how much of a threat to do hypersonic weapon systems represent. i wouldn't break that question down into the level of strategic. operations that is the kind of nuclear strikes that the us russia and china might launch against each other and tactical operational battlefield level issues so at the strategic level they have certain advantages as discussed in the introduction to the program they can because of their unpredictable flight path they can invade certain kinds of defenses that were designed for to intercept a listing missiles that follow a list or trajectory however they don't fundamentally change the fact that that russia china in the end the us have enough nuclear off and so strategic forces to overcome any possible defense that we could be built the next few decades and
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therefore are going to remain neutrally volatile and therefore will have neutral to turn so it doesn't change that it allows adds a little complexity but the more interesting question is how they might impact at the tattoo operational level and there are the thinking is they could have as much impact as stealth it for so if russia is able to sink a u.s. aircraft carrier. hypersonic torpedo at it in an industry or and that would reach the target in a minute from a submarine that the u.s. wouldn't bella down a fireworks location is an advance that could have a major change in how we might see battles occur off syria for example probably does this announcement by president hu i mean to a large extent we have actually seen the onset of a new arms race. well it seems that yes the russia and america are aging
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and a new arms race that was obvious for some time russia has been modernizing very much its nuclear capabilities and now i asked this year almost a year ago but this year the united states introduced the new nuclear posture review which also means that there be developing new weapons a development that didn't happen under barack obama who didn't want to develop new weapons who want to be kind of. where to the core but this kind of specific a mess sile well it's not true at misawa i mean the missile that was reported we fired is an old soviet s.s. nineteen developed and built in the eighty's and this is a new warhead actually which be attached to basically any bow a stick miss or space launcher and then when it reenters the atmosphere it for eye
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on some kind of trajectory that's on predictable and then. nonetheless reach its star get afterwards but basically bogus think. warheads and especially intercontinental ballistic warheads always travel that hyper speed that's nothing new but before they made that kind of beeline to the target then the more accurate the better this is a maneuverable gliding war which is technically a very big achievement though it doesn't alter the basic nuclear balance of the tyrants that's true richard i saw you nodding your head to some of what pavol was saying to you want to add something. no i just to make clear it's the hypersonic technologies or look here isn't necessarily furring to delivery vehicle that is the missile it's more there re-entry systems so if it's hard gliding warhead gliding
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vehicle hypersonic gliding vehicle it's not in a typical re entry vehicle which is normally goes in and out ballistic trajectory and that means it's going to can realign because it's flying very low and at that level the atmosphere at the low level that is for its able to maneuver using the air and so on that said if you know what the target is it is possible to intercept it so if you know that you're there and trying to hit the pentagon then theory you don't even if you don't know how it's going to get there you know where it's going to end up and so that does allow in theory the possibility of defense apart from the you know whether or not this is actually close to being operational the fact of the matter is this announcement coming when it does really really underscores doesn't it you know how much nuclear saber rattling has become you know really quite central to to president putin when it comes to trying to showcase russia as
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a superpower at home and abroad correct. yes i think that's correct that's also in my view reflects some frustration on the part of president putin who has proposed to the united states to discuss in the format of the standing verification commission under the i.n.f. treaty issues of mutual noncompliance he's also offered to the u.s. to extend the strategic arms control treaty by another five years to two thousand and twenty six but from the u.s. in his view he has not received a satisfactory answer and given that to prepare the opposition to president trump by the mainstream media by the democrats president putin sees that in the trumpet ministration he is not going to get a negotiating partner on arms control and this is his way of pushing back but i would also argue that there is an asymmetry the u.s.
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was looking at hypersonic vehicles through its conventional precision got. attack strategy to be able to deliver a warhead at any place on the planet within one hour of using a conventional warhead to attack targets like the high deductible some of bin laden before he was killed or isis or a guy that targets the u.s. and china in response are targeting apparently u.s. strategic forces to defeat the u.s. creator missile defense system and also the ground based missile defense system that the u.s. is putting in place so i'm also concerned about this is symmetry and possibly mixing conventional warheads the nuclear warheads on the delivery system of these advanced hypersonic vehicles probably let's talk for a minute about the u.s. because u.s. officials have in recent months warned that their efforts at the development of hypersonic weapon systems that they lag behind those of other countries such as
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russia do you believe that. well again that's watch how you define hypersonic weapon or vehicle i mean if it's warhead that i mean a modified seriously modified reentry vehicle attached to a stick misao medium range or an intercontinental that's one thing and that's. rather easier to make though of course there are very serious problems there too for the of a chronic components not to burn out because of the high temperature that the chiefs while going through the dense atmosphere but if you're talking about kind of plane or some kind of flying vehicle that will have an engine and why at first sonic speed in the upper atmosphere that's a much more difficult achievement and that's what there are am united states is basically working on because you know the shuttle was also returning from space it
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flew a hyper speed than it was maneuver to wound and the united states has an unmanned shuttles the x. thirty seven that go into space and go back o. some maneuver type or speed and then land where they intended to so that's achievable what's really the problem is making and then sion that would work at hyper speed and the plane has some kind of flying object that could go on its own engine not just simply using the energy of it going down to earth from space and that's the thing that's what we were united states is working on russia is working on that too and china that that that goal has not been real way yet that she by anyone richard if we could just take a step back for a second just how bad is the relationship right now between the u.s. and russia. oh it's terrible i mean i mean i'm disappointed.
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you know i was a child the cold war i studied the soviet union in order to try and destroy it but then the cold war ended and we were looking to into a partnership with russia but it's been one disappointment after another so we had a slight reconciliation the cold war that collapsed then after nine eleven the two thousand and one terrorist attacks there was a brief reconciliation but that slowly fade over time. president obama came in made a sincere effort to reset relations with russia but that failed and now in the present trump that was one thing he made was one of his core object as was improve relations with russia and he's failed so i don't know what's going to make the relationship better or it's just awful and so as both speakers of a point now this leads to a very unfortunate situation regarding arms control and mung other relations so as as was discussed we now have one treaty that's about to collapse the ion after which was signed here in the cold war and limits the number right range of systems
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within the five thousand five hundred kilometer to five hundred kilometer and we've got a second one whose fate is on third uncertain the more important new start treaty which is going to expire in two thousand and twenty one but can be either extended by both presidents without needing legislative approval for five years as required by the protocol perhaps change and expanded so you can maybe try and deal with these hypersonic systems or they could just collapse and have no arms control and that's the relationship we u.s. has now with china and regional formal limits on their strategic systems richard i'm sorry to report this to be clear also as far as the i.n.f. treaty i mean hypersonic missiles hypersonic systems are not covered at all in that i mean after correct. correct so one as covered by the treaties and after the new start are the missiles and the nuclear warheads and so if russia
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wants to have. a thousand dollars which is under the treaty for the new start treaty russia is free and i guess it's about is about a hundred missiles strategic missiles land base and if you want to put a normal reentry vehicle as or you want to put hypersonic reentry vehicle i mean that's really up to the national decision making as long as you comply with the other exchanges in vero and verification and so on so they do not need to violate a treaty but if you want to break out of the treaty they would be one means by which you do so but it's really the trade of trying to limit the number of launchers and nuclear warheads not so much how you get you have them reach the target thought if china has also said that it has successfully tested hypersonic aircraft do we know where things stand in china with regard to any kind of development of hypersonic missile systems weaponry of any kind. what
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china has conducted nearly ten tests of its version of a hypersonic glide vehicle apparently they've received a velocity of about mach ten as opposed to mach twenty by the u.s. and the russian federation but some believe that china may be the first to actually deploy regardless of president putin's announcement yesterday i'm also concerned about possible new entrants pakistan in response to india japan and south korea apparently are also considering the possibility of developing this in the u.s. there is a lot of concern about technology pfaff so to speak by china but i'm also concerned about technology theft by india because a lot of i.c. specialists from india are working in the u.s. specially on defense contracts this is something that is under reported at the moment the indians apparently are developing something called the sharia which is
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supposed to be another hypersonic glide vehicle variant and also the brahmas to abramoff is a supersonic cruise missile jointly being developed by in the air and russia so we may also be on the verge of a new multilateral or multi-party arms race in these hypersonic vehicles with regard to arms control this is the. hypersonics fall in the gaps they are not missile but they are launched by a ballistic missile whether a hypersonic light vehicle can be characterized as a warhead is still open to question so this is yet another important issue to be concerned about whether this falls through the gap and is not captured by the arms control discourse and now for the first time in the sixty year history of arms control between washington and moscow there is no dialogue even during the with years of the cold war the us and russia were negotiating on strategic arms control
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and so we are now on the verge of entering into a very dangerous phase boats with regard to conventional weapons proliferation but also unrestrained strategic arms race problem if i could ask you to expand on on a point that i thought it was making there i mean there are concerns about these weapons systems and delivery systems becoming operational but then there are also concerns about proliferation in your mind from your vantage point what is more worrying. both are worrying but you also should take it all with the french of salt because i mean there's a lot of hype international have about hypersonic and when you say hypersonic everyone believes that that's something real bad terrible but actually an operational sense for this you know warheads are also very good and actually cheaper more reliable and more accurate than hypersonic things so russia yes
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which announced there will be deployment in nineteen but they'll deploy only too apparent with such missiles with a modified reentry vehicle a guide there because the problem is it doesn't add anything it actually even detracts because. not s.s. nineteen say you can put up to six regular warheads but apparently only one good idea which will carry must like with this a new career warhead or the same you queer device so that means hypersonic doesn't always mean that it's better at least for the time being but the u.s. the race is expanding arms control as we know knew it before its co-op sing because the arms treaty control treaties that are now exist to in existence were signed as the cold war was ending or end and they reflected the reality that's no
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war there because right now there's a kind of new cold war between russia and the west and that means those treaties already are not relevant and no new treaty is or not apparently appearing that there are indeed no negotiations happening between moscow and washington a venue real substance on arms control and that is very very worrying richard could you invision some type of trilateral treaty with regard to hypersonic weapons being signed are being developed at any point soon between the us russia and china in the environment in which we're living now. i think it's possible because you do have examples of cooperation among these three countries even despite despite the strong tensions between them so they have cooperated to some
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extent to keep iran from from developing nuclear weapons or a long range i c b m's they've also cooperated in the crisis of north korea and probably most relevant is they three cooperated on to keep the nuclear and treaty from being adopted so they can cooperate when it's in their interest and so they may i think it's still a stretch to think that they would limit their own hypersonic systems but i could see them working as you asked pavol to try and cooperate fent other countries from getting this technology so you know the kind of situation you want to avoid is less is less a concern about how these systems might affect the balance between these three countries given their robust strategic arsenals but say thinking that what would happen if a man had a hypersonic delivery system that it could destroy israel in
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a couple minutes i mean that just creates a strong incentive on the part of the israelis to strike first and the same is true as was mentioned with respect to india and pakistan they're so close together that if you can get a warhead they can just launch and hit the target in a couple seconds that's just a terrible strategic environment there's a strong incentive to strike first and so on and so that's why they would have both a general interest in women's liberation and technologies and specific concern about regional conflicts going out of control so i think it is possible for such cooperation to occur terrorism trump actually called for that the g. twenty meeting in argentina he said you know we need to launch some more cooperation with russia on china on arms control target we only have about two minutes left just let me ask you this obviously we don't yet know how much all of this is hype but in this environment with things seem to be escalated how destabilizing does all this have the potential to be. well i think in the short term it has the potential to be gravely stabilizing if we have an incident in the
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south china sea between the chinese navy and the u.s. navy we don't know whether that will escalate out of hand if there's an incident in the ukraine or in syria where you have american and. russian forces still present. miscalculation that's the big fear at the moment is an accidental clash that nobody wants but it escalates out of control hypersonics will not play a role in that my other point is that if the start to agreement collapses it's very thick ation system also collapses and despite the bad relationship between washington and the united states russia the start to greenland still is active in terms of verification both sides of verifying each other and neither side is accused of the side of violating the start agreement all right we have run out of time so we're going to have to leave it there thanks to all our guests thought a throw if possible felgenhauer and richard white's and thank you too for watching
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you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at inside story. and the whole team here by phone.
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left exposed by the withdrawal of foreign troops. exile may be the only path to safety. but in a nation makes home feel ever further away. fail railcar bill part of the viewfinder asia series on al-jazeera. made it every rekey news cycle brings a series of breaking stories joined the listening post as we turn the cameras on the media and focus on how they report on the stories that matter them at least on al-jazeera.
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al-jazeera. where every. other one darren jordan don't have the top stories here al jazeera high level talks . between turkey and russia are taking place in moscow to discuss the future of northern syria on friday the syrian government made it is good to claim it is taking control of man beach at the request of kurdish forces turkey sent hundreds of tanks to its border in response that follows it has drawn of u.s. forces in northern syria on the last more from gaza into. well this meeting is going to be decisive for anything that's happens from here on in turkey would be
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looking to see whether russia will give the offensive if those plans for managing the go ahead of course right now that his.


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