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tv   Inside Story 2020 Ep 3  Al Jazeera  January 4, 2020 2:32pm-3:00pm +03

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and to former nissen boss carlos golems transit through the country after he fled japan a turkish private aircraft operator says his planes were used in his escape and they filed a criminal complaint the company says one of its employees falsified documents to fly in the out of the country fled japan to the been and despite living on district bail conditions whilst awaiting trial for financial crimes and i break of pneumonia is causing alarm in china 44 people have been diagnosed in cases linked to a food market in the central chinese city of war on all are being treated in isolation and a further 121 people are under inside story is next but by. iran's
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top army commander is killed in a u.s. airstrike in iraq tehran is warning of harsh revenge. assassination trigger a military confrontation and how would that affect the rest of the middle east this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program on darren jordan iran is vowing revenge on the u.s. for killing its top military commander got some sort of mani died when an american asteroid hit his convoy near the airport in baghdad the assassination ordered by president trump marks a dangerous escalation in tensions between the u.s. and iran well supreme leader ayatollah ali hominidae says the general was killed by the cruelest people on earth adding so lebanese martyrdom will make iran more
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decisive to resist america's expansionism and to defend islamic values well said amman he was head of the powerful could force of iran's revolutionary guard which conducts military operations abroad the u.s. accuses him of creating instability in syria iraq and lebanon iranian leaders called his target killing an act of war americans have now been urged to leave iraq in case of reprisal attacks the reports. check in on i guess heartbreak in the upper ranks of the iranian military at the official announcement of the death of major general custom saloon money the commander of iran's could force the revolutionary guard unit responsible for foreign operations so the money was killed in a u.s. drone strike in both doug. and anger at friday prayers in the iranian capital for the assassination of a man who led the charge against eisel in iraq and syria and whose death seems
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likely to lead to more conflict. back to shake a man god willing it is now time to clear and cleanse the region of these devils and it is now time to show the resistance to the americans and show our assistance with action to tell those yankees to get out of here get lost. in the early hours of friday morning shortly after arriving in baghdad international airport u.s. missiles killed so the money and his close ally of the old 100 s. the deputy head of the iranian backed iraqi militia hushed those xabi other members of the group were also killed in the attack a drone strike hit their convoy as they left the airport. for iran's supreme leader ayatollah ali come in a slow money was a trusted confidant a member of his inner circle his killing in a targeted attack the most extreme escalation in tensions between tehran and washington in recent years come and he warned there will be revenge into her own
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senior leaders met in an emergency meeting of iran's national security council many iranians see the u.s. attack as an act of war the united nations high commissioner for human rights described the killings as a likely violation of international law the idea that iran is not going to respond is is wishful thinking that will make the debacle of invading iraq look like a walk in the park i do not think the president trying really understands what he's got in the united states into going up against iran u.s. secretary of state michael and peo tweeted a video showing iraqis celebrating the attack while still the money enjoyed widespread support for leading the charge to displace eisold from iraqi strongholds some iraqis blame iran for instability and interference in their country and so the money directly for the deaths of more than $500.00 iraqis in violent antigovernment protests which began in october feared by his enemies inside iran so the money has
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for years been one of the most popular national figures in the country the international face of iranian resistance to american pressure he remained largely untouched by the waning popularity in recent years of the country's government over economic issues. while there is talk of revenge many iranians don't want to see a war. with us support them on it will definitely increase violence that's a fundamental to disagree with violence and conflict i believe people moving toward peace in negotiation to stick goals is much better. already told. me. iranians looked on salon as someone who could protect them cut down at the height of his popularity by a u.s. strike his death marks the lowest point in iran u.s. relations in decades zain bus robbie for inside story. well in just a few days there's been a dramatic escalation in tensions between the u.s. and iranian backed groups in iraq last week
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a rocket attack struck an iraqi military base killing an american contractor well 2 days later the u.s. launched air strikes against a pretty rainy an armed group the hezbollah brigades killing 27 of its fighters members and supporters of iraqi militia who were also supported by iran then stormed the american embassy compound in baghdad well the assassination of silly money has divided politicians in the u.s. republican senator lindsey graham call it a direct response to iranian aggression orchestrated by general salim ani and his proxies but the democrats house speaker nancy pelosi was angry that congress wasn't consulted beforehand she said america and the world cannot afford to have tensions escalate to the point of no return and former u.s. vice president joe biden warned we could be on the brink of a major conflict across the middle east. well let's bring in our guests from tehran had most of the professor of political
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science at the university of tehran in london by skype any given my deputy director of the middle east and north africa program at the european council on foreign relations and here in doha marwan kabbalah director of policy analysis of the arab center for research and policy studies at the doha institute welcome to you or hamad moussavi in iran let me start with you if i may how are you assessing the killing of qassam still amani by the americans because it now seems that president trump has pushed iran into a corner here. i think it's very significant i mean this is a very dramatic escalation of hostilities between the 2 countries essentially we've entered on charter territories there have been a lot of tit for tat military operations by both sides in the past 3 decades nevertheless what just happened in the early hours of today is very significant in the sense that the public assassination of the most powerful iranian general is
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essentially putting iran in a corner where it's not a question of if iran will respond but the question of when and where iran will respond to essentially i don't think iran has any choice but to respond to this attack let's bring in any government there in london ellie i mean it's an interesting observation is it not because many u.s. administrations have blamed iran for years about its destabilizing activities right across the region so has president trump finally done the one thing that so many other u.s. presidents were too scared to do what we're seeing is now both sides iran and the u.s. over the past anything particularly in iraq really if we do we find out that lives that are not engaged and so they've gone from 6 months ago of attacking military installations or drones friends on whole to now targeting us now this us attack comes after and number of heated exchanges in iraq over the past we whether happy
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if they got it but such a high ranking of fascination on the u.s. side is going to really draw the right lines are. wrong this fall and it's going to open up a whole new space i think of iran to up the ante in the region we'll talk about the response in a 2nd let's bring in marwan cabal and who is here in doha marwan what's your response to the somali killing and then do you think iran miscalculated the level of u.s. retaliation to the u.k. to the embassy siege in baghdad. absolutely i think iran thought that the president graham was very careful actually not to cross the red lines or the rules of engagement between iran and the united states after. donning of the you as a player in a few months ago and all saw after iran but vocation concerning the targeting of
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oil tankers in the gulf of oman. also after the targeting of the encore. oil affinities in saudi arabia so i think in iran the thought that there might actually go off air that a step in and balancing your as said but i didn't so i think he have decided in my opinion that maybe it's time to respond and i think that was the killing of soleimani was very much like that that amount to a coup by president and the relationship between iran and the united states it changes completely the rules of the game this is a major blow i think to iran because soleimani so they manage it all might have been exaggerated he might have been depicted as a legendary commander in iraq but because of that very reason maybe it's a major blow to iran he's done more as visible iranian commander in the history of
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the iranian of the islamic republic of iran since it's not dishman 4 decades ago so i think yes it's changes the whole. rules of the of the engagement between the 2 countries ok so all eyes are now on terror ron in terms of the response hamad moussavi iran's supreme leader has vowed harsh revenge tell us just talk us through what are the options briefly open to the iranians what sort of response are we likely and realistically to see while the assassination of our sampson one minute. i think his view is viewed in tehran as an act of war i mean it would be akin to iran assassinating the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff if such an event would happen i mean you could imagine how the americans would respond so i think you're on has no option but to respond regarding when and how i think the iranians they really don't want an all out war and if iran decides to attack u.s.
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bases in the region which i would say is the number one option i mean there are u.s. bases in iraq and afghanistan and the united arab emirates accept that would be one option but there is always the risk that it would lead to an all out war another option would be to wait and not to retaliate immediately and when the opportunity comes to use your proxies in iraq or lebanon to either attack the americans or the israelis but as of yet there has been no decision one thing that was very significant is today when the ukrainian national security council formed an emergency meeting i told the harmony the supreme leader of iran for the 1st time in iranian history he actually attended the security council meeting which was confidential we don't know what happened inside of that meeting but that shows the significance of the events of the past 24 hours early given my in london killing
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somali is certainly not going to weaken the revolutionary guard or the could force and it certainly won't roll back iran's ambitions across the region so what was the u.s. calculation them. we very hard to know president trunkful the calculations are but sets in it does seem to be an escalation in this maximum pressure campaign policy they have a very obscure tweet from the president this morning. looking about iran never winds of war but been negotiations so make of that intro for that time well he seems to be keeping a space open for diplomacy which seems to be very fantastical at the moment because it's think that and irani and official who would now be able to stand in a meeting or a photo op with the president from is really far fetched. it's we are unclear what
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the u.s. wanted to do maybe was to send a message to iran that escalations met with further escalation but i think the best now to both sides that is although they state they don't want a direct conflict at some point it's going to be very difficult to manage this escalation process and we've seen charter vents back to back over the last 6 months since the u.s. was truth from the nuclear deal on began to impose crippling sanctions on iran and there doesn't seem to be any off ramps the europeans tried to create an uproar through president backbones initiative the pentagon but neither club nor the iranians really backbite it on that offer and it seemed all right that they're not cornered into a boxing match where it's unclear how they're going to get out of this getting all this animation will come all in here and let's come back to you i mean as we know iran has huge influence right across the middle east with
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a number of allies and proxy militias in places like iraq syria lebanon what sort of retaliation then do you think is coming and how careful does tehran have to be in measuring that response when i think iran isn't in a very. difficult situation right now because they know very well actually that if they are proven to be responsible for any attack on u.s. installations military or otherwise in the region there will be a very strong response by the united states look at the. action by the united states concerning if they were us embassy and but it does i think u.s. president has sent the message very clear and loud that if the iranians are going to are thought to get us and to us and the region there will be serious consequences for and dire consequences actually for the iranians so i don't really know how they get on ian's will be responding iran has proven to be a very irrational and very careful actor in dealing with the united states and i know i think when they decided to attack the u.s.
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embassy in baghdad i think the the over the step actually at the alliance which had been drawn by the americans i think they had with the american president in a very difficult position that that is how i see it because they as president in a in an election year he doesn't want to be seen as a week president he doesn't want actually to have a debate titian of but he has he seen audio when the u.s. embassy was attacked and the u.s. ambassador was killed so he was he criticized the obama administration at that time for being very weak and reacting to that and so then he doesn't want to be look look weak at an election year so i think iran is to be need to be very careful of the u.s. president in a very important. confrontation but it's a confrontation inside the united states and he's willing actually to take and he sort of action in order to when to be to be reelected all of this bringing back the there in toronto i mean how careful does a rom there need to be about any kind of retaliation that could lead to
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a full scale war i mean iran must know that it cannot win a toe to toe a military confrontation with the united states. yes that is very true but at the same time i don't think the trumpet ministration wants all out war in an election year so there can be a limited military confrontation of course when you have a military confrontation there is always the risk of further escalation and even all out war but at the same time we have to consider the fact that iranian options are quite limited at the same time there are also nonmilitary options as well one would be to withdraw from the nuclear deal which actually might happen even if your own takes the military route so both on the nuclear front and on the military front i think iran has no choice but to respond i'm going to govern my own if there is further escalation the u.s. presumably is not likely to put boots on the ground in iran trump is in an election
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year of course. and was saying there and any military action could be politically detrimental couldn't it that for sure and i think this is why trump has the peace he said that he doesn't want to go to war with iran and you know the iranian side is very clear that they're mentioned a minute you power by that of the u.s. israel and other regional allies of the u.s. in the region but you're wrong as we're going to stop to be incredibly sophisticated at asymmetric warfare at fiverr time and i don't remember and iran has other options on the table as well including the political track so what outcome that we may see out of this is a much bigger push from tat ron with its allies in both iraq and afghanistan on to bush for a u.s. withdrawal of military forces and that would be a major political when for some power french's inside iran have wanted the u.s.
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to essentially depart from their owns orders for a very long time ok so we have a. ron on one side we have the u.s. on the other caught in the middle of course is iraq marwan cabal and how will iraq decide what its response will be and what sort of conversation it will have with iran and to the killing of silly money actually push iraq closer to iran in terms of geopolitical influence and relationships in fact to iraq is very much divided right now between. the demonstrators on the street who we have seen some of them actually celebrating that earlier in the morning and on the other hand we have that brought you on militias who tried actually to storm the u.s. embassy in baghdad and they were in fact that they got for this escalation between iran and and the united states so when you when you look at iraq you can't actually speak about when iraq. as i said is is very much divided including within those
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actually who are close to iran because we have seen today for example that assad are trying actually to make to exploit today the killing of in 100 and. and disappearance of the other leaders of the popular mobilization forces in iraq in order to inflect his muscle and try and do to gain ground inside iraq so i think when you talk about iraq you have to be very careful. on who's actually will be supporting you're on who's actually is working against. how most of the interim let's remind ourselves that iran is suffering under u.s. sanctions its economy is in tatters so whilst so that money may be considered a hero and a martyr by some people i mean do ordinary iranians think that they have more important things to worry about like jobs the economy where the next meal is coming from. yes that's true but at the same time possum so they money was actually
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a quite light public figure in iran public polling by the university of maryland last. amr shows that awesome so they money actually actually had the highest approval rating of all iranian political figures including the iranian president and for some selling mining was quite smart in the sense that he wouldn't get involved in iranian domestic politics and as a result he was quite liked by both factions within iran at the same time we have to remember that the economic sanctions on iran did not come out of the blue i mean they were implemented again by this trump administration and it is actually the assassination of qassam so they money is another extension of the so-called maximum pressure campaign and you want has essentially been retaliating whether in the persian gulf or you know in regards to the events in iraq all of this happened when
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the united states decided to leave the nuclear deal now the events of the past 24 hours i think have a sensually killed any chance of negotiation and reaching a deal with the trump administration and i don't think this is actually going to be beneficial for trump who was hoping to reach a deal with iran before the elections only go on my let me come back to you because you touched just very quickly on the possibility of troop withdrawals i mean this does raise a much broader question about u.s. foreign policy or lack of it i mean some experts suggest that this could lead to trump actually withdrawing u.s. troops from iraq it's an election year as you say probably can't be bothered with all this trouble in the middle east afghanistan and syria. certainly trump campaigned on bringing u.s. forces home he made a decision to withdraw troops from syria and he's working hard on a deal with the taliban well that is the cost which included u.s. troop withdrawal so actually this is that the nation depending on how it plays out
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with iraq and afghanistan iran could actually mark and you decline in u.s. relations with kabul and baghdad will have to see as your other guest mentioned that these countries are divided in how they view u.s. presence in their countries but certainly that had statement not the statement today from iraq a political leaders who in this an active in question is assassination on their soil and this will eat up the debate about the title role that these countries want the united states to have on their soil and point that moment come on in a final thought from you i mean how do you see this crisis playing out i mean is there now a real danger of more instability more unrest right across the middle east i mean this is pretty bad for everyone isn't it absolutely there is always the potential for a fair that escalation i mean this is as i said earlier i mean this is something that iran will have to somehow respond to but on the other hand is going to be very
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difficult for them to escape by the not these days so the situation is very tense is very dangerous and the moment actually used off that this escalation is very difficult to know where it ends i am not saying that the 2 countries are going to. pull out but at the confrontation but probably we will see we'll see further escalation in the coming weeks and months just briefly a final thought from you what is iran's endgame here trump says he wants a deal with iran within a kills a mommy so what next very briefly. i think iran is and the game is to force the americans to leave the region american forces in the region. are a significant national threat to your reigning security and i think in this regard the killing of awesome soleimani is actually going to weaken the american position in the middle east or writer that's what we have time for thank you very much indeed to all our guests how mad most of the in the iranian capital tehran any
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given maia in london. here in doha thank you all very much and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is a j inside story from the dam in jordan and the whole team here goodbye for now.
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january on al-jazeera president donald trump is that the president in history to be impeached what does this mean for the future of the u.s. leader on the brink of an election before much chilian presidential candidate explores the defeat of left wing political parties a close match in america a look at how this year's world economic forum to focus on ways to tackle the impact of climate change an expropriation of family links to the city's regime examines if it's early may now be embracing fascist ideologies most believed gone forever with the general election out of the way breaks it is now certain how moving you can proceed with the transition in the coming months january on al-jazeera. it is murder when you throw a firebomb into someone's home and mishits me off trashing you know. not in a significant in the numbers that insignificant ideologically that is significant even
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as a chronic gag down very significant by dictating the government and the fucked up policy dows shalt not kill part of the radicalized youth series on al-jazeera talk to old jews their own we were told to go to the ministry of all the ration has this been addressed by tookie we listen what is the proposal of spain for a couple of years we meet with global news makers and talk about the stories that matter how does their us. talk to old jews their own we were told to get to that because. all the ration has this been addressed by to ok we listen what he's the proposal office. for a couple on here we meet with global news makers and talk about the stories that matter how does it run.
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well on a clock in doha the top stories here on al-jazeera and thousands of people are attending the funeral for those killed in the u.s. airstrikes targeting major general it has some sort of money on friday the full funeral for the top iranian commander as well as i wrote the hundreds the deputy commander of the iraq iraqi back to iran back maybe up to maybe as a show of force is under way so i'm on his body will be flown to iran later behind us will be buried in the jeff in iraq while a spokesman for the iranian armed forces has issued a statement saying iran has the right to respond to the assassination of sort of money and our response will be strong if there is a war in the region the cause is the united states of america iran will avoid any hay.

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