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tv   Inside Story 2020 Ep 8  Al Jazeera  January 9, 2020 3:32am-4:00am +03

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option and abuse of power charges in october he's accused of trying to bribe a magistrate in return for information on a criminal inquiry into his political party he denies any wrongdoing turkey and russia are calling for all warring parties in libya to reach a cease fire by sunday ankara is deploying troops to support the internationally recognized government in tripoli to help in their fight against the wall orderly for half an hour now on monday his forces reach the center of the strategic coastal city of sirte the statement on a cease fire in libya was issued after the turkish and russian presidents meant to inaugurate a pipeline in istanbul it's known as the turks stream more news on the website. we'll see you soon after inside story by.
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u.s. targets in iran's size of the rush of missiles. iraq emitted bases hosting u.s. troops it's to iran's retaliation against the assassination of us into a money but will this revenge operation stop there and might washington strike back this is inside story. hello welcome to the program. there's been much speculation about the scale and target of iran's retaliation to the assassination of its top military command customs today money and there's also speculation about whether the killing of the head of the revolutionary guards elite force could bring all out war to the middle
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east iran find more than a dozen besides a 2 air bases hosting american forces in iraq early wednesday it's the most direct attack on the u.s. by iran in decades initial statements by both countries seem to say they don't want further escalation the iranian foreign minister exact words were it one took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defense to iran's made it clear it will strike again if washington responds as for u.s. president donald trump it waited all is well after iran struck well is all really well when put that question to our guests in a moment. well begin with iran's revolutionary guard just see has said they have carried out the attack in which spawns so the assassination of so they money they were born in a statement and a new measure against iran would be met by
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a harsh response well warning all american allies who gave the bases to its terrorist army that any territory that is the starting point of aggressive acts against iran will be targeted iran's supreme leader says the attacks are a slap in the face for the u.s. here's what he had to say to the iranian people after the attack. today we are armed the nation of iran is equipped today against the bullies of the world and i'm mad bomber move the last night we slap the us on the face when it comes to confrontation military actions of this kind are not enough what is important is the corrupt presence of the united states in this region must come to an end they brought war and hostility and deception and destruction to this region wherever they go this happens they are still insisting that this corruption this destructiveness should be imposed on iran. as i leave
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you know when you're always talking about negotiation sitting around the table and this means their interference fish should come to an end their presence in the region should come to an end the nations of the regions the governments based on the will of the people do not accept the presence of america here and. let's bring our guests in but we have valley and me here is a professor at a little sponsoring a university into one we have acquired during his research of the center for strategic studies and iranian government affiliated think tank in washington d.c. douglas ollivant has served as director for iraq the u.s. national security council and the both president george w. bush and barack obama welcome to your early how do you see the situation in the
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region against the backdrop of the 2 attacks retaliatory attacks by iran. now i heard the people elect me to see that there is now. waiting because all the people they have expect that the swish won't be any queries and they think that is bennett and this is lead because you know that i could be without suffering from 40 years from the war and they know what is the horror mean then they they they're afraid to the terror that they're killing and armies fighting between them in order that i think the iraqi people are they waiting but even that thin though there is no. no the start bribes that he didn't give his statement just on the. sort of say the
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president to say we don't want to iraq to be for fighting between between them then and nothing else to declare to get out from the side the new wind is from the iraqi just that now that the collation and the comments coming in from iran and the united states now i think that i can be will just waiting looking to see how things were after the statement office of the top. everyone who is watching of in years has a question in mind which is will the iranian response will be confined to the missile attacks the targets of the 2 bases or there's more to come in the near future. and iran's retaliation military retaliation against. against military bases housing u.s. troops. is a very calibrated response iran once to make sure that this is
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a retaliation not escalation so based on what foreign minister zarif. tweeted iran has has concluded its proportionate response to the us act of state sponsored terrorism by assassinating general soleimani so it appears that iran is not going to take any fair the conventional military retaliation against the united states but from iran's point of view does firing missiles at. anal asaad military base or another base in erbil. would it be considered a befitting response to what the united states by its act of terrorism no it's not ok. iran took its own revenge and now it's up to the
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iraqi forces the popular mobilization forces to take their own. and they are not going to listen to run at the same time so iran once too. for iran befitting response would be a when all u.s. troops are kicked out of this region which was their presence yes we're told the president was talking about that and we're seeing a later but let me go to the class in washington d.c. douglas do you agree with this that as far as iran is concerned or do you think that this could be a prelude to an unchartered territory for all the key actors in the region. well it appears that the is rockets were fired as a as a message you know these rockets were fired and so far as we know they appeared to have landed in grassy fields and blown up nothing but perhaps some cows so at that
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level this was very deescalate torrie no one was killed i think we found no serious damage to any materiel maybe a few planes here and there so in that sense this wise deescalate tory on the other hand the choice of targets when matched with the words i think the shots at al assad were expected i think the firing at or below all was the message to the region and i suspect that message was aimed primarily at or below and then secondarily at doha that if you have a base that is hosting u.s. troops and if attacks are launched from there you just made yourself a legitimate target i think that's intended to be a powerful psychological message for the region but we'll see if that matches it's you had it extremely. by any conventional means unsuccessful attack ok yes
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it was deliberately unsuccessful so coupled with this psychological message right since we're talking about what's next i mean be in both done early iraq is caught in this regional rivalry between 2 political and military mights iran and the united states of america where does iraq see what does it see itself in the near future sides even more with iran or trying to carve out a neutral position. i think this is very difficult to question because you know between both because america is the great power and. iran it's the neighborhood and iran it's have many historical and religious should do that with the iraqi even between the people of both people and the politest between the in our care and under bullets then we know that in our key is the venue critic
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situation now because they cannot be with what side against the other then i think is the best way to be the mediator ought to be a between them but i think it's very difficult now because a iran needs it within their own all the american forces and they don't want an admission ship with american and that many can want to go into government be away from the admission ship with iran down they want to make iraq as a base for or to attack iran or to to stop any and it of lobbying for any things in iran in orbit that i think it's bad but now after that that's a quantum of what that problem today i think it's a suitable time for that and i could time for the iraqi government to be a mediator between both sides because they if i think are on i want to have i think in the next week the iraqi women iraqi government that i could british they will have played that role i think with that helping with some countries like qatar oman
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ok for example then i i think i think both sides they don't want to us can they don't don't want to wind up that attack a wider they don't want the cultural war white war and i think both say they want they now as i hear now the american say the united states said we'd better incite american side to stop ali you know he talking he said we talk a lot of avenge from the killing of. john salley man and that we thought of as. the sudden a problem say in who we sever blocking saw for you this is a sign he there is star question of these of work as for wish you see as a sign of deescalation libby go to ali akbar be a quote you see sant that basically a as far as your own is concerned this is done a however it's up to other countries like iraq to take what they consider to be city but action by however let me remind your mr ali i could bother if the iraqis or any others decide to take any retaliatory a at a guy's the americans do be
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a widely seen as iranian proxies at this is something that could further trigger an american reaction to that is you know ontic of that into consideration the resistance fronts in iraq and other countries in the middle east will take their own revenge to make their own decisions they do not necessarily listen to run the us acts of war against iran and iraqi military officials in baghdad did include killing several iraqi military officials to shabby already popular mobilization forces are part of the iraqi army general salim army was. an official guest arriving in baghdad at the official request of the iraqi government that is under international law
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a law elation of the u.n. charter violation of iraq's territorial integrity and act of state to sponsor terrorism so it's up to the iraqi government to respond but at the same time iranian allies and. groups close to iran have their own decisions to make and. it's very likely that they will take revenge for this for this killing but it will have nothing to do with iran although iran does support them iran has made its choice and has shown its retaliates reaction douglas has of the u.s. administration under trump in a way or another undermined it's funny in policy in the region because it looks really absurd you know where another do the talking about putting out from iraq the asking of the iraqi government to take side of the iraqi government finds itself in a position where he has to strike
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a balancing act it seems that this is an absolute uncharted waters for the united states of america in the middle east i think it is absolutely uncharted and i think even the administration's allies. they're saying you know it might have been much more prudent to restrain all the retaliatory strikes for the death of the contractor and cook cook and even for the breaching of the u.s. embassy keep all that retaliation in syria and keep iraq out of this keep the fight out of iraq unfortunately that ship has now sailed and we are where we are with regard to the russian forces i both agree and disagree with with our rainy and friend here gree that these are not purely proxy forces that they do have their they have their own agendas they have their own agency but at the same time they are prominent allies of the iranian state so to make an analogy you know were tomorrow strikes to come from the british and the australians onto iranian soil i
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don't think they'd be impressed with if we said well you know what do we have to do with that it's well known there are permanent allies and that they probably wouldn't do something without his induction and our consent i think if we see these attacks come from the hotshot will see them in a similar way yes they have their own agency but don't tell me you didn't know and don't tell me you couldn't have stopped it mysen esmie what he said that iraq is about time for iraq to mediate to be this particular crisis piece that was say wait a 2nd miss that and that's me because the political elite in iraq is predominantly shia affiliated with iran then with the united states of america so the outcome is going to be all this that it is going to side with the is rania's they will carry water for the iran is by the end of the day. no i think the media title would not be in the from the government specially i think then we
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did that coming from a bit from that in a key battle among the children of the above amount i think it's i think it's accepted from united states and will be accepted from from iran but i think. sure and everybody knows there is a very deep relationship between many iraqi politicians and the high position and then a key government with iran and i think that's a wonder if you see it from. american and i think the iraqi government is very weak now especially the protesting against the corrupted against and the british though that and refusing to from the minute majority of the street i think this is this is they put them in the very narrow corner and then they cannot they hey don't have a blend of. bentley time underplayed ability of. landed
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tool to move in it's but i think i think they the medical side and the iranians say and the end they want somebody to play that rule india it up ok i think the best one and now you're lucky government to be the iraqi parliament to play that role with another friend for iraq and iran better that it's ok let me go to aqaba we've heard all those strong words from the from the iranian government top military commanders. but however everyone understands that once the display of a mation emotions takes its time is going to be back to normal and then my question is is iran burning to talk to the americans or at least to give diplomacy a chance. iran has never closed the path of dialogue but. direct less and irresponsible decision by donald trump to order the assassination
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of gen soleimani closes the path to diplomacy he has left little to talk about when you resort to terrorism in your resort to assassination in foreign soil against an official government a government official. you are blocking all lays for diplomacy and dialogue so by naming the iranian revolutionary guard a terrorist organization which which in return iran responded by naming centcom a terrorist organization and now the entire us military. we are. away from any possibility of dialogue between tehran and washington. as of now we are living in the post soleimani era which is quite different from
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a week ago in the post soleimani era in the middle east we are facing greater threats to u.s. military presence in iraq and elsewhere or around iran's borders are posing a grave in growing danger to iran's national security borders and iran cannot cannot remain in peace or have a peace of mind when the united states resort to such actions but from the 1st day donald trump came to office in in january 2017 he replaced interaction with confront ation the right here rip. plays and they go to obama's multilateralism where unilateralism and that was the beginning of of end of a war with iran which continued by the terrorizing the iranians through economic
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sanctions and now widening get to military action douglas took us through the the american process in the near future particularly comes to dealing with iran you must have read all the article of the us media basically saying that. my papa and trump are staunchly pro a harsher response of the congress is willing to rein in that instinct but will the congress change its position of the retaliations of the iranian government grow in terms of scope and targets. well it's no secret that inside the u.s. government there are more hawkish and less hawkish i would say but less hawkish elements when it comes to the iran file. the killing of the contractor on cook in late december gave the iran hawks the upper hand inside the u.s. government explaining what we then saw in the following week now that we seem to be
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perhaps at a slight pause that that that kind of chapter that started with crook cook and ended with the missile strikes last night if that becomes one set and we can now breathe and look at where they go forward from here different voices inside the u.s. government might be able to come more to the forefront and we may see a slightly different approach to the iran file but it all depends on what happens in the coming weeks. if there is more response either physical 'd or in another realm cyber attacks attacks on you know assassinations of our friends in the gulf states then we'd be in a back in a different world and this movie if the if iraq continues to be it best the ground for the rivalry between the americans and the iranians do you have it consider the it might exacerbated the the divide between the sunnis and the shias in iraq vet
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who briefly please no go go think because though in our kids know it's units against their government against the corrupted and what's happening to governments that it's not necessarily because of the 2nd because the speaker of the parliament said that he does not agree with the idea of taken up to the americans to put out from iraq this is absolutely the opposite of what's on the other side. no but the end the end the end the bottom line give that to authority to the to the prime minister to tell the american side to withdraw from iraq because you know the you know the facts signed between iraq and the medic and 20081 of the it's a very condition say is any. of the forward year we will get it sure will end i think it's very easy to do it let me go to iraq but i let eat you give me the impression that if the americans decide one day to put out from iraq that would be
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the price the iranians are asking for very briefly peace. that would be a victory for iran iraq and the entire region because. that demobilizing u.s. military presence in the region will come to an end and i think you'll be for the regional states elects to take their own decision less than 30 seconds douglas are you concerned about and if full blown military confrontation in this part of the world you always have to be concerned about full blown military confrontation when you have lots of people with weapons pointed at each other the opportunities for miscalculation either at the very senior level or perhaps at a very low level that then grows and no one can stop that's that's always a great possibility but we're very very concerned about the possibility of leaving iraq we think that that then turns iraq into a you know a puppet state of the iranian regime that they'll be unable to resist that influence the united states it's been
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a lot of blood and treasure in iraq we don't want it to thank you absorbed into iranian orbit interesting times ahead to have to tell you that when you talk to people in this part of the world about what's happening everyone voices the same concern which is basically what if this turns into a nasty bits of confrontation between the 2 minute see a my it's the united states of america and iran in a volatile middle east me douglas ollivant. i really appreciate your contribution and your insights and thank you for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website dot com for further discussion go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com for was last a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is a j incisively from the hash and. the whole team here in doha by phone.
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cultures across the board. take it we'll bring you the news and current affairs that matter to you. iran appears to be standing down donald trump seeks to dial down tensions with iran and wants europe's take on a bigger role in the middle east. iran's president says the real revenge of the assassination of his top general will be to push america out of the region. again on p.t.w. watching all to see a lot from our headquarters here and also ahead questions remain over what caused the crash of an aircraft in iraq 170.

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