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tv   Counting the Cost 2020 Ep 3  Al Jazeera  January 21, 2020 8:32am-9:01am +03

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community but it said the military was not guilty of genocide rights groups have been quick to condemn the findings. and u.s. secretary of state might pompei as promised more support for venezuelan opposition leader why don't the 2 men met at an anti terrorism summit in colombia pompei called on world leaders to help remove president nicolas maduro from power describing his rule as a terror regime and the extradition trial of a senior executive of chinese telecom giant holloway has started canada it will determine whether mayne the one who is sent to the u.s. to face 4 charges the american government accuses her of violating sanctions by selling equipment to iran boeing's lawyers say she could be released because those sanctions are recognized by canada those were the headlines are back with more news in half an hour next on al-jazeera that's counting the cost. the climate crisis and the environment takes center stage at this year's world economic forum in davos business people experts and leaders from around the world can expect an icy
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reception from some as they discuss how to save the planet from the ranks of rising temperatures get the latest updates on. a than this is counting the cost of al-jazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. march. march therefore need a $50.00 to our farm. our farm. i can't find hard to track. trade china capitulates can deliver tens of billions in extra trade. american sanctions no problem if the russians
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pivot to the east it opens up another pipeline via turkey into southern europe. south korea's. spy working and struggling youth with no money and no hope of climbing the social escalate. 3 years ago president xi stood in front of the world's business elite in davos defending the postwar international liberal order us president railed against globalization well 18 months later a trade deal of sorts is been signed but has president xi wasted the political capital he established how brutal treatment of 13000000 we go muslims strong arm tactics against democracy protesters in hong kong and giving himself indefinite power to stay as leader the deal which ever way you. take it down is a win for president trump the us has used its economic strength to great effect and yes the uncertainty has crimped growth both home and abroad but china has agreed to
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buy 200000000000 dollars worth of u.s. goods over 2 years that includes $32000000000.00 in additional agricultural produce and the tariffs on $360000000000.00 of chinese goods will remain in place until after the us election or china approves its in compliance with the deal there is little confidence of that target being met american farmers may never be able to produce that much plus american companies will no longer need to hand over their technology to get access to the chinese market trump says the agreement delivers economic justice for the us our negotiations were tough honest open and respectful leading to this really incredible breakthrough most people thought this could never happen should have happened 25 years ago by the way but that's ok but there's also concern beijing may not be held to account for breaching the terms of the deal from
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beijing katrina you has more. if. 2 years chinese exporters have been hoping for a trade deal with the united states the so-called phase one deal suspends additional u.s. tarps on nearly $160000000000.00 worth of chinese goods the agreement also seeks to expand u.s. access to chinese markets strengthen intellectual property protection and narrow the u.s. trade deficit with china according to washington beijing has promised to almost double u.s. imports to china over the next 2 years increasing purchases of agricultural energy and manufactured goods by $200000000000.00 but chinese analysts say that figure is unrealistic if china does commit a $200000000000.00 that means china's making big compromise but it also means that a later stage the enforcement can be a very difficult thing to do u.s. president donald trump says the agreement includes china buying $40000000000.00
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worth of american farm goods but the chinese government says it won't raise its quotas on grain imports to meet u.s. demands beijing is reluctant to divert trade from europe and south america and has so far remained silent on how far it's prepared to commit itself by signing this agreement they doing is treading a fine line between preserving relations of washington i do not want to play a week china's leaders day this is an opportunity to set aside the u.s. but now focus on the economy and toppling obviously and officials here expect far it's right it's the last it's. a phase 2 deal has been planned but there are other sticking points including beijing's plan to dominate global high tech industries under its made in china 2025 initiative. green tea time a sentiment out of the elections in the us me also implements any upcoming negotiations we also took the toughest ever actually gets showing up and i was
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residing we just received a breakthrough it's just really hard to predict where the next move is but one thing we can be certain is that the trade relation will get worse over time since the competition between the 2 countries will persist. for now maybe chinese manufacturers are probably feeling relieved over the deal may not be a long term solution he does deliver enough for some of them. but joining me now from london is greg swenson greg is a partner at the london based international investment bank brig mcadam good to have you with us so greg isn't this a massive win for president donald trump i mean the u.s. economy hasn't cratered like some force it might yeah you're absolutely right sammy and i think that you know this is a win for the president in 2 ways and one for the country really one is as you pointed out that there was not as much economic damage to the u.s.
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especially in the last few years there was a lot of economic damage to china and there's also you know there's a lot of detail there that starts proven and also considering that the the u.s. had some room that they could withstand some of the economic damage whereas the chinese economy could not and secondly this deal is really proven that that the trade war in the tariffs actually worked for the president what he did is right let me jump in and say is that why china gave in was it because they couldn't withstand the damage or was it fear of more escalation and perhaps in other issues absolutely i mean it's both sammy i mean it's really you know it's a really good point you made it's not just one thing i think the tariffs if anything gave. ability to the president and it proved that he would in fact use tariffs it wasn't just a threat so they were really nervous about additional tariffs their economy just couldn't handle it they're still very export dependent they've got an aging
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population which is all another headache for the for the p.r.c. and and so you had some you know you had $70000000000.00 and $70000000000.00 reduction in exports for china and only a 30000000000 dollar adduction for the u.s. and the u.s. is a economy is much better position to handle something like that but it was interesting when this all began it seemed like the chinese position had a lot of sympathy. i wonder if you feel best one did that now with the u.s. europe japan you know coming out proposing to even change the rules of how states can support businesses when you're absolutely right sam and look i think there's still a long way to go but but they did lose you know the battle politically you know there's not a lot of support i think they're they've they've basically isolated themselves for a number of reasons and i think the president has done a really good job of exposing some of the flaws or some of the the real problems
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with the with the chinese model so he's done a good job of that he's done that before in other places where you know there's a lot of really negative things that go unnoticed so he's called attention to them i mean he's he's lead with the trade deficit and some of the damage that it's caused in in the u.s. especially in the heartland and i think that's important in and i don't disagree with that although i don't find arbitrary you know trade deficit numbers terribly useful but what's what's really important to know too is he might have led with that but he exposed to the security risk the intelligent risks of doing business with the chinese you know the state is in the american solaced nature of their economy so i think he exposed things and not to mention human rights which you know this president doesn't necessarily lead with but it's important to know. that that the rest of the world is very much aware of you know the chinese state of the state owned you know or the state owned enterprise model and the risks that that poses to
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the rest of the world as well as the military security intelligence and human rights issues or i bet might be on the plus side for let's also now tackle some of the critiques of criticisms of this deal is it really practical do you think china really can buy for example next to an extra $32000000000.00 of u.s. agricultural products you know it's never going to be perfect that's that is a bit challenging although i would never bet against the american farmer i mean the productivity of the of the agriculture sector sector in the us is really impressive just their productivity versus the rest of the world because of the technology and because of the knowledge in the industry so i wouldn't bet against them i wouldn't bet against the possibility of them producing that much but i think the other evil we've done with their technology greg is that there's a lot of doubts about whether the american farmer can even produce enough alone whether china can buy that much it's all about enforcement and it's and again i can't say for sure that they'll be able to produce that much but anything is better
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than the past 2 years where you had you know aid but not trade so i look the american farmer wants to trade and they've been they've been able to ship you know soybeans for example to other to other buyers other markets i think they will come back to they hit this target probably not but at least the you know they're a step in the right direction i think it you know the other challenges in forsman you know we have seen a lot of issues addressed in this phase one of the agreement that's already been going for some it's only going to be enforcement grego if china fails to follow through i mean how will it be held accountable since both sides agreed to bypass the. yeah i mean the look that the w c o you know has not been particularly useful age you know that the us brought 17 cases in 2 years and they want to also. 17 but it didn't really change you know the chinese behavioral pattern nor did it make any structural changes so i think the fact that they're going to have their own arbitration model is useful but again
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it's all it's all an enforcement the u.s. is keeping a lot of the tariffs and they always have that threat which they you know the chinese are taking quite seriously there is that threat of additional tariffs and and as i mentioned earlier the chinese economy cannot handle that they are not designed to handle these these type of of trade shocks or tariff shocks whereas the u.s. economy is not nearly as dependent on exports you know 66768 percent of the g.d.p. in the u.s. is the u.s. consumer and and you know 88 percent of the goods and services that that are consumed in the u.s. are produced in the u.s. so but you know there's like that that 30000000000 dollar of it like well 'd you know we think we can take more of this if the things don't work and you've already said you know that there is some concern doubt about whether china is going to be able to live up to this what's the point of making new agreement unless it's for political reasons with an election coming up what's the point of making an economic terms an agreement with someone to make commercial commitments that you know or
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have serious doubts about what they can live up to and then keep the rest of the world as well as your own economy on the edge of the seat kind of waiting for the other side to go all through and then we go back to trade war entire us again don't we. great question sam and i think the 1st point is that the status quo is not working and this is a lot of these issues need to be addressed in a starting with the trade deficit but so many other things that chinese have been up to you know have been exposed and i think will be addressed by the international community not just the u.s. and secondly you know that the biggest challenge at the least in the u.s. economy but for but also in the global economy is uncertainty and so as as you had threats of trade escalation. you had a an aversion to making commitments making decisions making business investment and i think and that will all change now will be perfect of course not but this is
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a great step in the right direction it shows that that a lot of these issues had to be exposed had to be addressed i don't think they'll hit all of them perfectly but but i think that there will be a lot of constructive results from from this phase one agreement will trump be perceived now to have delivered through his base is going to help him win the election they think yes and sammy i think that it'll help him with his base i think you know he's been very successful at maintaining that connection with his base but i think more importantly he's going to have a lot of his critics come on board i mean a lot of the criticism about the terrorists in the trade war came from the right came from some of the conservative press you know you use you saw a lot of criticism from them you know for the wall street journal for example and and now you've you know you've taken that uncertainty out and and i think that this is definitely a win for him and his base but it's also a win for the u.s. economy i mean really the only critics so far have been of course the you know the leading democrats who really will give the this president credit for doing anything
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they've been pretty shameless so far but the reality is this this tariff war this trade war actually worked and you seen it with the chinese concessions in this phase one of the agreement all right gregson's in the thanks for your perspective on that. buxton by sanctions imposed on russia following the annexation of crimea and backing an op rising in the east of ukraine president vladimir putin has been working hard to reduce reliance on the west's 1st came the opening of a $55000000000.00 pipeline to supply gas to china completing poussin so cold pivot to the east and this month it opened the pipeline via turkey to supply southern europe. further punishing the ukraine for strained relations between the 2 neighbors ukraine stands to lose billions in transit fees russia supplies 40 percent of europe's gas pipeline will provide more gas for turkey and open up
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markets in bog areas serbia and hungary it comes as russia's biggest gas company gazprom was forced to hole construction of another pipeline under pressure from the u.s. joining me now from london is gold mirrors zire vogel mir is the founder and managing director for eurasia analytics as well as a research associate at oxford institute for energy studies gas program. so let's start with the new pipeline turkey and russia seem to be cementing their alliance when it comes to economics will that be able to withstand though the political divergence over issues like libya syria and so on well when it comes to gas exports from russia to turkey the political dimensions or even put in the political tensions that exist or existed before we witnessed that did not affect and so far is not affecting that issue like exporting natural gas from russia to turkey
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because this is an interdependent issue and turkey as much as much as russia is dependent on export and import of natural gas or of her if you all goes according to plan this means ultimately last transit for the ukraine right how painful is that going to be for their economy while they're saying is not that bad for your crane because at least ukraine managed to keep it turns it so it's country which could have not been happen as an option so this happened and that's a good news for ukraine ukraine also will get more than 7000000000 on the from the from transit and next 5 years and also ukraine kept to 2900000000 as a result of the swedish arbitration that guest from will need. to pay to ukraine so are also. transit contract is based on pump or pace which means
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that from needs to pay in any event if it were just from iran doesn't ship its gas or your crane well the u.s. is now competing with russia in supplying gas to europe isn't there and i wonder if you think that played any role in the u.s. decision to threaten sanctions or gas problems partners in north stream when it comes to nordstrom you know i don't think that. the. police the u.s. companies that are exporting l.n.g. to you what up they they are consulting with the europe this or a u.s. government and asking them to impose sanctions on gust from or are are on russia to export gas to europe that's not the case of usefully and that's a saying in europe it's more we are talking more about the healthy competition and the competition is a kind of current lease battle that will see for our market share while there are
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u.s. sanctions on russia the european seem to want to be wanted to ease sanctions will be are paeans be able to do it. well i think there are some major countries again like france or germany and austria that are putting a lot of a force to it is them and this is this is their market the gas market especially you know. if we're talking about the north stream then it's a german market and i sing for instance germany never can be able to ease the sanctions you know that to get some extra value of gas or nostrum to present the whole iran file showed the europeans struggle sometimes to try and counter or get around the impact of u.s. sanctions i know that you know their own situation obviously is a bit different because the u.s. was penalizing countries you know companies that do business with iran anywhere but
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using this still could be some fallout from u.s. sanctions i say here is the iran issue is a bit different because some of the european countries they were importing oil not gas but oil from iran and those countries that they had an option to import oil from elsewhere in the book but when it comes to a natural gas imports it's the situation is a bit different because many. rypien countries are pretty much the pendent and almost entirely reliant on gas from gas and that will be extremely painful for them to change this situation moscow's also looking eastwards isn't it with the china pipeline is that project proving profitable for moscow i think it was more political and strategic more wolf moscow because it has not been proved to be cost effective investment all commercial the wia bill project given the low prices for
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gas in china and given that the demand is not growing as was expected or predicted before and also enjoy a cast a lot of competition in the market given this extremely historically low prices and in the chinese market so it will be very difficult for gas from so make profit out of this project in a short short term perspective all right thanks so much going neera for talking to us thank you parasite a social critique of inequality in south korea could become the 1st non english language film to win the best picture of the oscars this year director bond june hose palme d'or winning title tackles the issue of the growing wealth gap al-jazeera is rob mcbride takes a look at the phenomenon of dirt spoons feel trapped in the bottom of society. they are known as dirt spoons young people from low income families who despite
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gaining high school and college educations often end up in jobs they don't want to do for little money and with little chance to better themselves always living in the shadow of so-called gold spoons those with privileged upbringing. you sung ho is a writer and social commentator who's long studied the plight of young koreans caught in the lowest social class. the biggest issue is work housing is next even if you have a good place to live housing costs have gone up a lot and the cost of living feels higher because young people don't earn a lot very few people i know are able to save and there's a sense of dejection. the dirt spoon issue has been brought to prominence with the release of the movie parasite a dark comedy about 2 families of haves and have nots that won the prestigious pan door at the cannes film festival. traditionally youngsters face intense pressure
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to do well in highly competitive exams to get entry to the best college. that guarantees a job in one of the big conglomerates which then secures a loan for an apartment. the belief that working hard in your studies and then in your job will inevitably lead to success has been a driving force for generations of south koreans it's why many schoolchildren will do extra classes until late at night and young workers will put up with poor pay and conditions but increasingly that belief is being challenged a recent study of people in their twenty's shows 3 quarters of respondents no longer believe hard work alone is a guarantee of success and that your future is determined more by the social group you're born into. in a hurry due to the social class the already belong to even if young people make an
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effort the possibility of a put social mobility is very limited government assisted housing schemes offer a way out of the poverty cycle these one bedroom units cost under $250.00 a month far less than the market rate and are aimed mainly at young married couples with south korea facing the lowest birth rate of any developed country. as real estate prices in seoul are so high it's very difficult for a newlywed couples and young people to raise such as large deposit we provide leases for 6 to 10 years which allows people to save for debt future but for every one unit there are normally 10 applications. the growing wealth gap is unwelcome news for the liberal government of president moon j n who was supposed to be closing it adding to his discomfort the minister of justice was forced to resign after being accused of falsifying his daughter's
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academic achievements to get her into a top college supporting the belief that power privilege. the faltering economy is making things worse you sunk her work for a marketing firm that helps companies start ups which are struggling with rising costs and property prices and the downturn in business and the young working poor appear to be bearing a disproportionate burden. if you ask young people if they have hope most will answer now the gap between rich and poor is getting worse and it's getting harder to secure a better future. bleak economic prospects facing the dirt spoons mean the year ahead will likely prove it will be tough at the bottom rob mcbride in seoul for counting the cost. and that's our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with us via twitter and use the hash tag see when you do or drop us an e-mail
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counting the cost the boundaries 0 dot net is our address there's more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash seat and see that and take you straight to our page which has individual reports links and entire episodes for you to catch up on . for this edition of counting the cost time sam is a band from the whole team here. thanks for joining us news and al-jazeera is next . mobile technology. leading the way in the digital revolution. making a difference in the unlikeliest of places. this week tackling sexual health in south africa and engineering social change in london inspiring young people to competence openness how do they sold it using my heart taking. the final episode of life sucks world of laughs on al-jazeera.
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investigating the use and abuse of power across the globe on al-jazeera the 21st century began with extraordinary economic growth across much of latin america . but since this whole today in 2008 there's been a political shift to the right on a continent where socialism once thrived. and a chilean politician goes on a journey to meet leading leftwing figures to understand why that politics have lost ground so dramatically. in latin america a giant in time oil on al-jazeera. al-jazeera
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. ever. how is the whole robin hole you're watching al-jazeera these are all top news stories u.s. president donald trump's impeachment trial is. to get under way later ahead of that said it republican leader mitch mcconnell has announced the rules that will govern the proceedings which is designed to end it as soon as possible democrats say they'll try to amend the returns explains what we can expect from washington d.c. so each side has 24 hours to make their case every 2 days democrats wednesday or thursday republicans friday saturday if they need it then we have debate cross-examination rather about 16 hours of cross-examination by the senators. to
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the to the house managers and the white house lawyers this isn't bubbly though this is done through written questions given to the chief justice from robert.


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