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tv   Inside Story 2020 Ep 50  Al Jazeera  February 20, 2020 3:32am-4:01am +03

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after tuesday's attack national policy we requested the holding of the weapons about 4 years ago not just these days if the weapons of bugga had been respected we would not have been in this situation today if it is to be respected it must be upheld that legacy. former new york mayor and billionaire michael bloomberg is preparing to confront rival democrats in the u.s. presidential debate for the very 1st time nevada the media mogul is a late entry in the race to take on donald trump and november's election spent hundreds of millions of dollars on t.v. ads 5 of the candidates will join the debate days before the state's caucus well those are the headlines the news continues here on al-jazeera the inside story stay with us.
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who runs afghanistan after the disputed presidential election results and how will that impact the talks with the taliban with ashraf ghani declared the winner by the smallest of knowledge and this is opponent top dollar dollar says he'll form a parallel of ministration the us wants to pull out while pushing for peace at the same time after 40 years of war and conflict how will the key players resolve this latest crisis this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program i'm peter dubey now in 2014 their rivalry resulted in the u.s. brokered deal to share power which was punctuated by 5 years of bickering and now
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ashraf ghani and abdullah abdullah are again disputing an election result danny is officially the winner but only just and that's rejected by abdullah who shares power with the president as chief executive he is now threatening to form his own parallel government this political showdown couldn't come at a more critical time for afghanistan the u.s. and the taliban do appear close to an agreement that could lead to a planned reduction in violence and if that posture is largely maintained it could be a precursor to afghan politicians sitting opposite the taliban but how can any of that happen until we know who runs afghanistan we're a challenge sets up our discussion. since september afghanistan's election commission has been sifting complaints and contested votes trying to work out whether ashraf ghani has the 50 percent plus one vote needed to avoid a runoff he does it's finally announced but only just but that she has said i had
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to open according to the constitution we declared mr ashraf ghani who recovered 923592 votes which is equal to 50.64 percent of the country's total vote in the election as the president elect of the government of the islamic republic of afghanistan. the incumbent is naturally celebrating. the matter. but i'm dedicating this victory of the people to the people and as the 1st servants with our united seem we will always safeguard the rights of the afghan people but although the decision puts months of electoral uncertainty to rest it opens a new chapter of danger just like when gandhi was ruled the winner in 2014 his main rival abdullah abdullah is calling the result illegitimate that's. the result they announced today was the result of election law
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a coup against democracy the betrayal of the will of the people and we considered it to be illegal. in 2014 the u.s. brokered a power sharing agreement with garni president and of diller chief executive. this time around the u.s. is doing deals with the taliban there near an agreement in doha which could be announced soon if an initial reduction in violence is successfully observed 1st the u.s. wants to bring its troops home. with the taliban also says gone these reelection is illegal and contravenes the peace process will reach alan's al-jazeera. ok let's bring in our guests joining us today from kabul is tommy massey he's formally a deputy minister of defense and the executive chairman of the institute of war and peace studies a kabul based think tank and joining us from islamabad is symbol current political
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and security analyst welcome to you both coming to you 1st i mean we've been here before 2014 but this is a little bit different because of the dynamic that surrounding the taliban. you know we have been here before but the difference is basically 3 4th 1st. we haven't had a peace deal hanging on the horizon the 2nd reason which is different is we don't have a foreign mediator like john kerry a former secretary of state to come to kabul and mediate between the 2 candidates and the 3rd factor which makes it very different is you have a president who has been almost isolated politically without a big political base and that is why i think this time it would be much more difficult in terms of reaching.
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some sort of an electoral agreement but my believe is that we will run into either of the 2 scenarios 1st we will go to what i call the national unity government $2.00 or some sort of a participator a government again another one. or the 2nd option is you will have the current president leading the government but he will have a limited term until the peace agreement comes to some sort of a conclusion and then we call for an early election symbol can in islamabad a national unity government 2.0 how would that work indeed could it work. i i really don't think that is going to be an option now with the way it sits the situation has done for the specially some announcements today has moved from the law of the law calling to the interior ministry to intervene and stop the
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independent election commission from leaving the country although i don't know why that happened because we have no information whether the independent election commission members were indeed planning to travel out of the country or not i think with just a bit of muscle flexing it is very dangerous this kind of mustn't lexing which indicates some kind of an institutional split among the state and in states that it seems that with this announcement that the left a lot of intake that he does control of. security that they did institutions that you know and a ministry if indeed various kinds of security and other security instruments off until by. it is traditionally supposed to have been going forward by people from the from the militant party the power of the left and that's factions so not a very good sign or for that i think the unity government doesn't seem to be something that's possible now i do agree with my friend from i missed on that
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miss some kind of the resolution where when you might be allowed to continue in an internet i'm kind of a set up. might be something that look a bit i think my friend from governor also mentioned that there is no involvement of a high level let's nobody but i think that's going to probably change very soon not well i think that is going to be more involvement or i definitely very strongly feel that there should be more high level involvement right now i think that kind of provide biting is going to happen the quantity an interim setup was there for some time i may i think there it was there before the elections happened and i think even back on bikes any government and would have settled into a big. or troubled by i mean it's enron i'm saying that that's an interim step that should exist and i'm not ready to point an election now to me i'm going to see for a 2nd time you see in kabul we should however in syria be heading into intra afghan
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discussions which should dovetail with the taliban quotes peace process is that now completely in jeopardy no no divestment and you're pretty we haven't started in trafton talks yet and we will have to look into who will be to negotiating team what could be different layers of negotiations and how a deal would might conclude it took americans almost one plus one year plus some months to come to some sort of an agreement now initially with the taliban i think the in traffic and talk will be much more time consuming much more of a bumpy ride and much more complicated but to clarify a few things i think i need to mention at 1st of all the afghan national defense and security forces are truly national and professional force right now there's no more northern alliance or southern or i don't know eastern controlling the afghan national defense and security forces as a national force as a professional force and it has stayed away throughout all of the elections the for
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the previous elections which all of them were one way or another disputers stayed out of it the other thing is that yes i. wrote a decree trying to bar the commissioners to get out but that was a political maneuvering everybody knows and today the interior ministry of afghanistan basically said that yes we respect what he wrote but we abide by the laws and it's the attorney general of afghanistan which decides who should be on an exit you know control less the type of thing that exists in pakistan or the other issue which is i think very very important for all of us in terms of the implications of this electoral crisis on the peace. process is we need to have a government person here we need to have a president we need to have somebody in charge of the africans were. tired for the last 5 months of this this fiasco has been going on and now finally we have
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a president and i think with all its problems we need to accept that there is a president but we need to show some sort of with this president. who came true the. the winner has to do 3 things 1st form a broad based government. and reach out to different political actors in afghanistan the 2nd thing he needs to do is engage with our neighbors because some of them have serious reservations about some of the policies that our government has been pursuing and the 3rd thing is put peace on high on the agenda and terms of the interim government no afghan will accept an interim government we are not going back to squares hero. to square one basically the afghans want some sort of a transition make an ism under the existing republic how would that come out will
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be a decision or an agenda item in the interest can talk ok but definitely not an interim government an interim government is going back to the present if i can just come in and interrupt i think when he met it's it's a matter of semantics and inside him set up a transitional government is again something i transitional government is also kind of and he said i'm set up for and the dialogue starts and this would be end of the dialogue with some kind of a p.c. listening and as you yourself are pointing out that you don't think this is going to be interrupted that it's going to go on. any reporting to the neighbors also there are lots of concerns that the neighbors right now have specially one of the neighbors pakistan which is what a lot of that lot of the. it's a kind of value to stop the negotiation of the medicine and of diplomatic as well as political capital in helping start these negotiations over all the neighbors that will have one neighbor that has really been pushing it has been part is that
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we are right now with the mechanism that was decided with this 7 day partner thought it was always a has also been the main source of the problem pakistan has been a safer back. to the taliban leadership so short but i'm just want to move on and talk about the peace deal that the drop administration what they didn't sign with the taliban in the next days and then they'd have to be a mechanism to when you talk about reduction in violence there has to be a mechanism in place which would judge how you validate or not elevate this reduction in violence with the up people that's going on right now in an honest on with that consigns around how how all these institutions within a panasonic and what do you possibly think are these processes will continue uninterrupted by the destruction that you just seem to mean would you like to come back on that point well. yes i think we appreciate with pakistan as doing
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for the afghan peace but part but let's not forget history a little more forget the taliban leadership frequently flies to pakistani cities to consult with their leaders should i buy without asking. a lot of but no i will come to your question but i would like to say that if pakistan is doing anything it's because of they need to do it because they are the source of the problem and they have been for a brain many many years and that's why hundreds of keeps traveling to g.h.q. and talking to you know of the chief of ok need to i don't particularly want to get into it you know that's where the relationship between the taliban in afghanistan and the taliban in pakistan and who gets sanctuary where that's a different discussion which we have had on this channel and i daresay will have it again symbol coming back to you assuming that these 2 men ashraf ghani and abdullah abdullah can work together is there another dynamic that they have to be aware of rewind to the election 56 months ago 2000000 people cast their votes but democracy
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is not alive and well in afghanistan because potentially 1600000 people could cast their vote so there's something very wrong there to start with i think i'll come back to my r.d. appointed once and there's that you know that was it not just in pakistan i mean around the world this state where does actually the u.s. state or does the you that i've been back up believe god and other people look they've been barred specially the european a lot of european partners that like the germans everyone was not the opinion that time wasn't ready because of the problems that you pointing out because of the problems with how the democratic system has been unfolding last 15 yards and i mean on its not really the floor of the dolphins it's basically trying to build a democratic system within a conflict zone within along what is on these problems are quite indefinite because of those shortcomings elections should not have happened and because they will was . it is that there are reasons which was why i was more elections should have
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happened elections should have happened and what not i want to intervene here because the elections should happen it's not for the neighbors it's not for the neighbors and. elections should and i think that afghanistan undermine our constitution. and again i just finished i am not trying to paint the desire specially post little by any administration of the elections as something something evil that plenty ministration want to do i do understand the frustration that president bunny faced with this unity government that went on nothing really actually you were doing that i might go up also to tremendous number a number of our on commentators like yourself everybody was respected because of the lack of progress that was happening within with services of the everything because of this problem of the non constitutional unity government that into because of the last 24000 election process ok let's see about risk just let me just let me stop you there and i'm serious question for me out of these 2 men ashraf
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ghani of dollars dollar which one of the 2 is more predisposed to talk to the taliban for the good of the country being a beloved lot more sat by me as well i think what i want to go to the dollar but i don't think this issue is about talking to that i live on it or the issues about where to side and then i will act as i will with the not i was and how the system is functioning that you would mean that it is not being used ordered around the docks with the ok and to mean a seeing kabul the us defense secretary for hinting just in the past 24 hours there is some wriggle room here because it's not the timetable in the choreography isn't necessarily set in stone so what's the conversation do you think that's taking place between the trumpet ministration that wants to get out but knows it can't leave a vacuum in afghanistan because at the moment they've got about 13000 u.s. personnel on the ground in the country from a peak of $100000.00 and it cost billions of dollars every year to the trumpet
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ministration it wants to be gone from that situation but what's the conversation to keep it moving forward. well right now the trumpet ministration would like to reduce its troops in afghanistan but they definitely as markets and others have also indicated as well as sector pompei oh they don't want to leave afghanistan and if you have read times magazine article their secret alex's within this agreement which will pave the way for a long term u.s. city presence and taliban have agreed to that. a court if time magazine is to be believed which is a very very credible source based on whatever interviews there are within the u.s. administration now the question is what who who within this within the afghan side will be able to come to some sort of an agreement with the taliban it should be the islamic republic of afghanistan the government the sitting government leading the talks in traffic and talks and reaching to some sort of an agreement
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with the taliban on various terms and there has to be hard compromises made there from one side to the other and simple can in islam about why is it in afghanistan it is such a difficult problem to solve talking to the taliban i mean the u.s. the spent overall $900000000000.00 fighting the taliban in effect but the taliban is still so strong it still controls 50 percent of the country. yes true i think that that that that fact that they're growing up on better quality control is something that wants to do you through that reflected in the u.n. reports as well as u.s. military is on reports on that but why why the issue of dialogue with the nibbana so difficult i think it's basically this more of what i've hinted before this kind of
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a farmer disc this on struck between who will actually follow him on government that is a big factor that is stopping the negotiations but there has been a lot of consensus building within a lot of time over this issue of me both directions a few years ago in this there was a big factional split will who actually really wanted to talk with the taliban with an openness and but although they lost yesterday the last in a more kind of incremental increase of dialogue between the u.s. and i'm. kind of on these opinions have changed and there is a growing consensus among the actors inside of imus and we do think that when it even was given with dileep on it is something that they are interested in and i think that i'm sensing ok but basically it is which part of the op was going to talk to the divine is the real issue we have presents the government of understood meaning is that is talking to the taliban to me the only scenario and bear with me on this one is it possible to get beyond the taliban or do they have to be dealt
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with some thinking my 979 the soviet union invaded 1909 the soviet union leaves but in 1909 that government went on to last for what to half or 3 years. well i would like to before i answer your question i would like to say a few things 1st number one the taliban do not control 50 percent of this country they don't even control a single provincial capital they control around 17 districts and we need to it we need to be very careful when we throw out those statistics and the statistics are based on threat assessment not based on control factor the other thing which i would like to mention all afghans want peace the survey that mine is to toot their the survey that the asia foundation that this survey that the afghan a city of studies that more than 80 percent of afghans including areas controlled by the taliban population control by the taliban say that this war has to end that
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there needs to be a political settlement and i think both the taliban and the afghan government have realized that there is a military stalemate in terms of the comparison of the soviet to the american experience i think that the circumstances have considered the storage of circumstances are very different different than what we see but that the americans invested in afghanistan or fought in afghanistan because of al qaida and because of other terrorist groups which were based here ok not because necessarily of the taliban the taliban were host to the to the to these terrorist groups ok to me i'm going to push there because we are heading quickly towards the end of the program symbol can in islamabad forgive me if my next question sounds incredibly naive bordering on stupid what would peace in afghanistan look like you have to be 455055 years old to remember a time when the country was basically at peace. i think basically peace and i'm
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islam realistically it would look like where the big conflict between the taleban and the up on biggest factions in a minus on specially they are on state comes to an end and there is a limited international presence present as the mean was saying i believe there is possibly going to be for some foreseeable future some limited presence of international troops that they are still there but there is a larger peace negotiation beach succeeds in the end and there is an end to large hostilities i don't think they will be complete these and the plan is that they be a smaller and bigger group still there fractured they might be i agree is my great but the best possible scenario would be that there is this larger negotiated end to the big wall between the up on taleban and upon government and the state and some of the other political actors as well i think that's the best possible scenario when you look at these 2 locked up insecurities still in august not instabilities which you need a bigger developmental onset than just of course the last point to use i mean what
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we're talking about is ending 40 years of war hundreds of thousands of deaths in effect that's what we're talking about a country that that has been at bottom for a long time is the direction of travel despite the election result despite the relationship between up the dollar and ashraf ghani is it still moving in the right direction for you. it is we are on the right track peace is there we are on a peace track i think we have invested for the last 18 years and before that on war let's invest on peace and what i do agree is that it is a dream. for everybody or for anybody who thinks it's almost like wishful thinking to think that the afghan war will completely vanish with the peace deal with the taliban i think the big scale war will go away you will still have some sort of you know skirmishes around the country because this war will transform into
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a new war but the scale of it will be much much less are we already see that some of the taliban ranks are switching sides and becoming basically changing flags in flags and becoming ice k.p. and 2 other groups but they will be manageable once the big war between the taliban and the afghan government comes to stop sort of a political settlement so in that regard i totally agree but thinking that this war will finish overnight because there is a peace deal between the taliban and the afghan government and there will be some sort of a limited presence of the you know the international forces here to do city operations that is. that is doable but the war will not finish the war will transform into some sort of a list of scale. skirmish ok thank you for that we have to leave our discussion there thank you to our 2 guests they were to me a c. and symbol card and thank you too for watching the program you can see the show again any time by going to our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion to check our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash inside
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story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a.j. inside story or you can tweet me i'll tweet you back at peter dopping one for me it is obvious and everyone on the team here and thanks for watching i will see you very soon. i. there are some of the media stories a critical look at the global news media the spread of also on al-jazeera government shut off access to social media a unique kid endangered biodiversity lies in the heart of one of ecuador's tropical
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jungles there was a lot of misinformation about the i knew most of the half year i know that probability is becoming but other stuff conservation there communities out there are journeys deep into the rain forest to follow a scientist and her team's efforts to save the flora and fauna so precious in the region women make science ecuador's hidden treasure on al-jazeera banks love to make loans to sufferance because behind the suffering a millions of taxpayers because us taxpayers never go away is a new one born every single day a 19 it is an emerging national in this as its economy but it be officially request it is rationing of the support mechanism we created together because i happen to live in greece somehow i am a sinner i'm a bad person. that's machine on al-jazeera. because context is a defeat in death storytelling around the biggest issues we've done but we've had
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to do the show do it again. or. i'm can but alan doha with the top stories on al-jazeera the un has warned of catastrophic human suffering in syria the government and its ally russia continue the bombardment of the last rebel stronghold in the northwest turkey says it will launch another military operation in syria unless the regime ends its assault on account of reports from the united nations we have written this repeated while in confrontations between turkish and syrian government forces who are in support the russian federation is actively engaged in support of the syrian government's military operation u.n. special envoy offers a bleak view of the political crisis in syria which is.


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