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tv   Inside Story 2020 Ep 235  Al Jazeera  August 22, 2020 8:32pm-9:00pm +03

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meeting to decide whether to give billions of dollars in emergency funds to the postal service before november's election the head of the service is being accused of favoring president trump by tampering with operations to slow the delivery of ballots a delegation of west african leaders has arrived in mali to meet military leaders so ceasefire this week they're expected to push for ousted president. to be freed and reinstated a huge fire has broken out at a government building in jakarta at least $100.00 firefighters attacking the blaze at the attorney general's building in indonesia's capital the office brockhouse is the headquarters of the indonesian prosecution sevis those are the headlines on al-jazeera i'll be back with the al-jazeera news hour in under 30 minutes inside story starts now.
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and. libya's rival powers call for a new ceasefire in the civil war but it's unclear whether the war khalifa haftar will support it so will the truce hold long enough to give peace a charles this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program i'm wrong cause many ceasefires have tried and failed it's and years of conflict in libya but it's who rival powells appear to a phone some common ground with the latest truce announcement. on friday tripoli's a un recognized government called for fighting to come to an end and for elections
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to be held by march its rival administration in the east which backs the warlord he for have to also urged all parties to stick to the truce the u.n. expressed its support as did major have to back egypt but the warlord hasn't responded after has suffered a series of losses along libya's western coast since the start of this year the government in tripoli says it will respond if necessary menu of money someone who can enter will have to will respect to cease fire where they will to guarantee he would respect to cease fire after the burning talks or previous agreements he threw specs this is fire we will welcome that because we do not want to be in bloodshed we call for peace however if you violate the peace agreement we are ready to fight and we will force him to leave like we forced him to leave western libya. will bring in our guests in a moment but 1st this report from malik traina in misrata. the head of the internationally recognized gov national accord in tripoli pfizer has called on
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a cease fire on friday and return i give us all the speaker of the eastern based parliament has also called on a cease fire now whether or not this will actually lead to a serious and permanent cease fire remains to be seen this is gained international traction with countries welcoming the statement including the u.s. the u.k. egypt the u.a.e. qatar and various actors in the in the libyan conflict so whether or not this will actually lead to a serious cease fire is yet to be seen we spoke to the spokesman of the military operations here for sort of the and what he said is whether or not have to actually accept or respect the ceasefire agreement is yet to be seen if he does we will we welcome that and we will we are we don't we do not want further bloodshed but if he is going to violate the ceasefire agreement they are saying that they are ready to fight and will continue on till they liberate all of libya in his words now there
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have been previous cease fire agreements in the past that hasn't really amounted to a serious political solution here in libya so whether or not this is going to actually be the beginning of a serious political and military solution is yet to be seen now trainer for inside story misrata. let's take a closer look at the situation on the ground now the tripoli based government controls the area and the khalifa haftar controls the area in red the rest of the territory is controlled by other groups both sides being gehring out for a battle of the city of sirte the gateway to libya's prized oil fields but there are now proposals to jointly demilitarize the area along with the base in the south . after us forces are in control of sirte and have been imposing an oil blockade
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since january causing nearly $8000000000.00 in losses friday cease fire calls for production to resume. let's bring in our guests in istanbul we have an ass al gore marty director of the select institute a libya based think tank in temple combe u.k. we have a loony a libya researcher durham university and in washington d.c. jonathan winer a former u.s. special envoy to libya a welcome to you all i'd like to begin istanbul with us. now there seems to be one person who is very conspicuous by his absence in all of this and that's khalifa haftar he's not the one that actually signed off on this cease fire deal it was a regular salary who is effectively the de facto spokesman i guess you could call him of after he's the one that actually signed this should we should we be concerned about is this
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a power struggle within after his organization. well certainly one way to look at it and i think there is. a way of thinking about the interlocutors i had a solid as the speaker going to be in parliament offers you know a traction more legitimacy i suppose to those partner is the u.a.e. russia and egypt who backed the libyan national army of the libyan armed forces and of deployed their own forces but i would also say going further that when one looks at the last time that we were in this position in january 20th of this year in berlin when there were international powers that were brought together and clip up there was there there was a certain sense that there had been in charge of this operation for almost a year that he launched that they can decide that the buttons went to proceed in advance militarily and then went to move back and i think that's changed dramatically if we look back at may of this year it was russian divestment and u.a.e. divestment in the sense that they pulled back russian messines and syrian mostly
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from the front line they stopped deploying there and eroticism the plane the drone force in tripoli and collapsed helicopters offensive and ultimately i think that that transition really means that number one we're at different chapter now i think where the military and i mix a concern this is much more about the u.a.e. who have deployed the drone force into sort it's also about russia who also deployed 16 jets just south of that and just but have also deployed back the most marines that are now no longer plausibly deniable but they're also have been captured in footage and have been reported quite widely in western press so this this dynamic is metronomic almost for certain means that it up there is no longer militarily speaking quite relevant and i would say that going on beyond that present at the protests in egypt welcoming libyan tribes and talking about arming the libyan tribes to move forward is certainly the kind of the cherry on the cake when speaking about it one of those military benefits and i think in
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a sense we've kind of moved on and it's really questionable whether or not. deliver up there or a libyan national army is relevant to the motor government or get us all out of the very least offers a plausible to more liberal shows some form of legitimacy and it makes the game a similarly look this is a libyan led coalition but the reality of the on the ground militarily speaking with a toilet or not at this point. a lunatic war we're looking at a situation now where had after us forces been able to take tripoli this would be a very different conversation that didn't happen is this cleaning house of the international has the international community his back is deciding that i said we did backed the wrong horse and now we need to just change our tactic i think what we see today is clearly a confidence building measure between the parties and i think this is the 1st time since the war in tripoli in ever 2019 the libyan octave are coming to the table for
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peace in the sense that this is an outcome maybe coming a bit late of the process that was initiated at the end of last year and then like honest when i was mentioning. had 1 may not a case in all discussion among the parties in general but back then the 2 sides not agree to call a ceasefire so i think what we are seeing now instead of these calls for a national wide ceasefire is in itself a confidence building measure between the main begin parties and not a compressive peace agreement so we need to be cautious when we evaluate this it is certainly an attempt especially like west that promises to be again relevant and limits as much as possible of the interference of russia and turkey on the ground this could be a weather and we will see that in the coming weeks it could be a faster step towards
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a sustainable and inclusive maybe and political settlement. turn of the morning d.c. confidence building measures a kernel of hope. in agreements you think this this is the start i think the analysis is exactly right but one additional factor is the fact. libyans don't really like killing libyans libyan against libyan violence to sustain what is something that we've seen very rarely it happened in the uprising with pricing ended in kentucky. but it's stopped then there's been very limited live you know libya killing since islamic state was something that the libyans wanted to get rid of once it came in precisely because they were so bloodthirsty then took away all. of mr gillat mr else roger gonnet difficult relationship in the past the fact that they're both willing to sign on to the cease fire at the same time reflects i
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think their desire to see whether a political agreement can before to reach those result in elections in libya moving forward with resources being shared belongs there why range inclusive range but would be in libyan groups libyan ship graphic territory of libya factions that all could happen yes it all could happen it's not going to be easy one prerequisite thing is for the foreign sponsors to tell their clients we want you to do we don't want you to fight and that's what seems to be happening now people are drawing back from the risks of an intensifying regional proxy war and that's a good thing it provides real potential opportunity for libya at a time when covert is believed to establish itself in the country then the risk of further humanitarian catastrophe is real and i. want to use is quite interesting language that the foreign backers need to tell their clients how much of this has
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been extended this war has been extended by those exact foreign backers and then looking at libyan forces like clients. i think it's gone beyond that and i would say and i would hazard to look at it in terms of this idea that we're preserving lives i think in general 20th when the conversation is in berlin and the fighting was in tripoli the most densely populated part of libya that was about the preservation of life the question now when we move toward said that less than 6 opulent area an area with human life that should be preserved by all means i don't think the international actor is actually going about that but thinking about what some of them may be thinking about the preservation of libya as a unified territory and also it's now much more about the geo strategic and jip political implications of where we are that front line has been quiet for weeks there is no fighting around so this is just a formalization of the stalemate the problem and i think in the contention here is that it comes around in the most sensitive part of libya where there is a historically but not determined border between eastern libya and western libya an
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extension to the south of southern libya that border is really about libya's historic regions it's also the place where libya's oil rich and best oil wealth is under the ground and the kilometers away and me all present so i think that's much more about geopolitics here but there's a danger and i sat and danger that when we look at the foreign actors who are no longer thinking about their clients because their clients will do what they say or they'll pull them from the table they control both the military dynamic by supplying weapons they control the ground forces who are there russian mercenary on one side with syria mercenaries other syria mercer's that are on the genocide but more importantly they also the time and who can come to the negotiation table or not by not extending a visit or an invitation to up there is no longer relevant the real problem here i think is that this office comfort to not the clients but to the patrons themselves i mean in a sense if you're thinking of the u.a.e. and russia and egypt's position they're able to preserve and offer themselves a military comforts by sitting pretty in eastern libya and extending their
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influence anyone who now jeopardizes the demilitarization or that the peace building exercise that is going around 25 kilometers east of silt or 25. kilometers west of that is no longer talking about preserving the unity of libya but is jeopardizing a peaceful the next there's a real danger here and i think this is what we should be talking about and moving and creeping closely towards the artificial artificial partition of libya and 3 years in a conflict that was only you know jelling around in the last couple of weeks hasn't seen any movement but doing it under the guise of a peace the next size that could very quickly and quite quite easily move towards the partition of libya. looneys an interesting thing should we be talking about this idea that things have just frozen is not really a ceasefire the misrata and forces haven't actually pulled back from their positions outside of or they're still there and they don't trust me for have to anymore than anybody else and they are adopting a wait and see approach when it comes to the cease fire so we're at we're in a moment of frozen tension is that right. yes and i think
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the security arrangements around face that andrew for as well will have to be a crucial a crucial test of these calls for a cease fire let me be more specific when it comes to d.n.a. aligned for this you mentioned the mistrust the group spot we have to remind the bill itself that this is a broad group of armed forces that would represent other towns and to be able to sleep tripoli and said don as well this is the full cooperation of all kind of anger is referring to and so these groups they have drawn welcomed and said that they will abide by peace call for a ceasefire but i just same time as you mentioned they said that when that with no one to the other party which will so here when he comes to see have to specifically we will have to see whether that these potties will be able to come to some form of an agreement to some form of security arrangement and he seemed to call for like
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a quick military dialogue to establish some sort of like a police force and as i mentioned a security arrangement in this area however what is it interesting is pretty absurd of. the 2 statements by mr savage and if that's allah if that is a cell it does not mention java and we know the group is the main pro and then they airbase whereas this is what i asked does mention to any statement any gives us a clear sense that he does not believe there would be a ceasefire it 50 without being called so that means it's so i think again if we are looking at the next steps it would be very interesting to see how the parties that come through the security arrangements that could happen within the framework of the joint military commission and the sub just learned of committees. and the only role of the u.n. mission to libya another option that we might want to consider. peace because might
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want to consider in this respect is a direct dialogue between the rival minister ministries of the interior in tripoli and so the objective here is to have a quick military dialogue and start security arrangement. and then take things from there jonathan winer and you see you with a special envoy to live you've got considerable experience in the country when it comes to negotiating with with different sides and also in other conflicts as well is it time to have unity lab the united nations mission to libya is that the best apparatus that we can to hari this procedure along or is that all going to work. well there is no alternative to having the u.s. taking a lead in negotiations you can have the locations for talks move from geneva to tunis to paris to berlin or wherever but it needs to be led by the
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un because any other leader including the united states potentially is going to be seen as tilting talks one way or another what can work is when the u.n. drives a process and the main. actors that have been vocally cough would all push. the groups that they've been working with in the country courts resolving the problem and there are 3 things that need to happen and it's to be 100 go shitting process not a bunch sponsored by different people because then people pick and choose that all falls apart the patrons need to tell the client you have to deal now now's the time to negotiate but to reach a compromise and then there have to be benefits to every region it can't just benefit one location like a national capital benefits have to flow widely for the country the kind of forward support of what the can bring peace i'm concerned about the potential of
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a frozen conflict where spheres of influence which clearly exist now being pushed into a part of issue or partition but i'm not as concerned about it as i would be in other countries because the oil does not run in clean cheer graphic lawyers it transversed this country because a trench versus intrinsics and the lines you could draw it's going to wind up i believe being impossible to go shit. a partition. that allows for libya to produce of the wealth that's needed to pay for the food and the medicine many other goods that the libyan people need and deserve to have by also the. the libyans most generally are libyans they move around but they may have some. affiliations and. connection but allegiance to where they grew up they're all libyans that i think in the end libyan led process is under u.n.
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auspices with the support from outside powers can negotiate an integrated country to sensual they do that when you have frozen conflicts those conference tend to be frozen as result of an outside were. pushing and holding the disputed territory on behalf of a minority group but one kind or another look at a particular geographic area they want to support about outside powers and through that state so to what used to be national territory and russia has been a major actor in frozen conflicts and we need to make sure that doesn't happen here but argue that a subtle risk at least clear she camps and i believe that the united states regardless of who wins our elections in november will continue to have a policy of having an integrated libya. one that is under democratic process and pushes towards resolving the conflicts that have taken place over the past 16 months and ending the instability that's been evident ever since the
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uprising in 2011 and nothing came out in istanbul jonathan weena says it's actually the u.n. that need to do this but there is at least from some people in libya a strong suspicion of the u.n. because they did back the tripoli based government they have had a position within this conflict you think the u.n. are the ones to do this. the new un is only a strong as the u.n. security council actors have and how to exercise their feet so and influence with a mission and i think it's not an occupation as you know immune from being swayed one way or the other and we shouldn't we should remember that the government of national accord today that sits as a party to this conflict was supposed to be the solution to the last conflict and it was supposed to be you know made up a unity government made up of the different sides that if the military factions the different political wings and trends that are moving around in libya so you know we have a track record and a precedent of imperfect solutions and the democratic solutions or
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a was just good enough and you know everything gets brushed under the carpet so i think that's my main fear here is that whilst there seems to be some really great efforts and some really great talk by the un and by others that are now supporting this initiative it's so easy for unilateral policies made by either states of the u.n. security council level to turn a blind eye and become ambivalent to spoiling the goes on to the you know direct intervention or the proxy sponsoring of many of the actors there or that just you know they turn a complete blind eye to the military buildup in the east or in the west of the country for that matter but it becomes something that we just live with and he's in public solutions were often things that later come back to haunt us we have very short windows of time to be able to ripen the local actors to be able to accept that there is a move going forward and the world until and in order to ripen them you have to do things you have to slow down to shut down in fact the supply of weapons and of military personnel and of any kind of hardware that sustains the conflict but you also need trust you need trust in consistency stability in order and some idea of
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predictability in an international system whether it be e.u. positions whether it be to u.n. position both which are crucial in libya but if you don't have any consistency in those things and the best example of this is that there were actors that were sanctioned and condemned them and you know and brought to justice and so to speak. in september of 2018 when they attacked. tripoli in fact in the piece we're going to tell it but after that it's wonderful to be true to not only was ignored and was it was a massive sense of the middle east or later turns out that it was going to be owning up to her and i would like to get to our other guests as well it seems to me that you are actually in agreement in many ways with jonathan winer in d.c. you want to avoid this idea that the tensions are frozen and that people have these spheres of influence which won't bring about a lost and less allouni i just want to get your thoughts on this do you think the united nations all there for the people to negotiate a long term lost in peace. i mean that's the monday and that's what they should be
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doing and so it's the these call for a cease fire if the result of a recent mediation process that comes to such an a from the united nations and we know or throw it seems to have been mediated by the times for humanitarian dialogue as well so i think the u.n. is the actor at this point that is trying to bring together also that is different its national actors and mediate among them and we know this is very important we have seen it in previous process i think some valid input got agreement back then that was half that was possible and the happened because that was that was when a creep and someone gets national office so i think that the importance of the u.n. the state probably the but if i may on donations up with the issue a question that is very that to me and i know it's very day to the libyans as well i think in countless occasions the libyan population as expressed its willingness
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to learn to in the country united and this is even the case could be forces in the east that might have a federal agenda but even the main and key political economic to that you can access that we see today for the governance national accord. general have to know that we've been talking about the they all have national ambitions my sense is that these after they won't be content with a petition and these techniques what libyans want so i think this is the the gender of a petition a something that is driven by foreign optus and i think one of the things that also motivated the school to call for a cease fire is for the leader not to set self to regain. regain control and their national sovereignty i want to thank all our guests enough of democracy ellis a learning and joy of the morning and i want to thank you too for watching you can see the program again and he saw him by visiting over. site al-jazeera dot com and
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