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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  January 24, 2022 3:30am-4:01am AST

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colombian navy, patrolling the so the moiz river says most fish are illegally caught and smuggler. oh, indigenous leader beth model says illegal fishermen work for international drug cartels as part of a money laundering scheme. or did you kick other co workers? i've been to move on to every little canoe can carry the equivalent of $8000.00 worth of fish and turtles. and there are many canoes working for one master. we set up our own patrols to prove to the government what's going on, but, and nobody sees my. he says that unless drastic measures are taken, many more endangered species will continue to be smuggled out of the indigenous territory threatening nature and the livelihood of the tribes. monica and i give al jazeera job id valley. ah, this is al jazeera, these are the top stories so far. it isn't begin afar. so have declared an
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overnight curfew after a day of violence. soldiers mute, needed several army camps. the government denied that there was an attempted to the u. s. as ordering eligible family members of its embassy staff and ukraine to leave the country. it coincides with the arrival of a 2nd batch of weapons from the united states to shore up cares defense capabilities. moscow denies that it's planning an offensive. mike. hannah has more from washington. the state department personnel also made clear one very important point that there has been no change in the situation in recent days, which has led to this upgraded travel. notice and making very clear that the decision to do so now was not in response to any specific that or threat. rather, the broad threat posed by a russian incursion which has been in place for a period of time. now the state department officials also say that a u. s. nationals in ukraine should start making arrangements should they wish to
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leave. fair battles have continued for a 4th day around a prison in northeast in syria, where i saw fight is trying to free imprisoned comrades. local kurdish forces pushing back supported by us, airstrikes, dozens reported dead on both sides. taliban officials are and talks of western powers in norway. the focusing on afghanistan worsening humanitarian crisis, and reports of human rights abuse. officials from several nato countries including u. s. representatives taking part in the talks a group of scientists and israel say a 4th shot of pfizer cove at 19 vaccine. triples protection for people over the age of 60. and it results show it makes that age group twice as resistant to infection, and those have had 3 injections. ibex is inside story to say, ah,
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is the bubble avow to burst for bitcoin? it lost half its value. why day of our crew to currencies are dealing in the bad and world market are in decline. what does that say about the global economy? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i am hasha marbella, bitcoin, the mother of war crypto currencies has lost half its value in just a few hours. it reach an or time high more than 65000 dollars last year. but on
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friday, it got below $35000.00 for the 1st time in months. and it's not just bitcoin. some of the biggest names in the block chain have been trading a read, some blame russia center bank, which proposed on friday ban on the trade. and mining of grip to currencies, a band by china last september had a similar effect. but a u. s. federal reserve decision to hike interest bates was already having an impact before the russian announcement. let's take a quick look at bit coins, short history. it was created in 2008 by an, an unknown person or group of people under the name of santo. she like a motto, it began circulating a year later as an open source software, which means anyone could access it's blue, print and make their own type of coin. the digital currency was intended for people
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to send money online and avoid the global banking system. but value fluctuated sharply as people experimented on how to use it. now, bitcoin can be used to buy anything from property, electric cars, and even drugs and weapons, without leaving a trace. ah, less bring in, i guess, in london name asked lamb chief market analyst at eva trade in singapore selling cap on director of corporate asia and all thought chomping of the bitcoin past, present and future bitcoin in china from dublin, professor bryan lucy, professor of international finance and commodities trinity business school. welcome to the program name. do we know exactly what's behind the crypto currency for thanks for having me. there are a number of factors that are adversely influencing the prices. 2 of them you
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mention, but the most important one is the risk of sentiment among investors, which triggered the big sell. how the seller really happened. that triggered that was triggered by the federal reserve and federal reserve started to talk to, to, to give more hawkish stance to the market. because last year everyone was anticipating 3 interest rate hikes. and fact was to increase interest rate to control inflation. and big coin is a national hedge to inflation. we know, throughout the world, inflation is getting out of control. now the federal reserve bank, which is the central bank in america, wants to control that inflation was to control, reduce the supply of dollar in the system. hence, we are seeing this little bit of a retreat in the price. i want to emphasize and one important thing over here. sure . with respect to the point, having its prices from where they are now. because last year we saw the price
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action great all the way 269000. now 34225000 bass. nothing new for this beast. big coin is known for all eternity, especially during the month of january over the last 10 years. we have seen plenty of quality because then and is it because of the fact that bit coins are kept or currencies are the best heads against inflation. the moment report started to circulate about the feather resort, starting to move forward past the past, past the cova decisions, particularly when it comes to stimulus and tackling inflation. there's been a panic reaction in the global stock market. and by definition that extend it to the crypto currency itself, and this explains why we the tumbling yes, i completely agree. i think, you know, the current is very volatile, obviously, as we know. and the reaction can be
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a lot greater in terms of reacting to market use or a sentiment out there. and i think what we're seeing now is definitely a retreat. but as i mentioned, you know, this is nothing new for crypto currency. whether that be the coin, serum, or any of the other, many, all the coins that are out there is the solitary, is there? it is most likely, you know, on the historical basis a temporary i guess you would call it for a big coin. you know, we've seen this in the past where it's lost, 4050 percent of its value, and then creeped right back up. so it could just be the trend that we've always seen in january, that volatility. but who knows what all the future for brian. but at the same time, when you have the show of the crypt currencies, bitcoin suffering, this massive slide. could that be an indication that this is not just one of those old cycles of an or high and then a dive. this could be an indication that there's something completely or
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intrinsically wrong with the very philosophy because welcome to conferences. yeah, i mean, the problem with crypto is like any process walls or market analyst says the top is in the bottoms and you know, they will make look foolish. so is this is this, we start with irrevocably trying and those w, i don't know. i don't think so, i think group the current you have a role and will continue to play a role. and therefore, even though there is an argument that they have no mental intrinsic value, once we except them as a form of money, regardless of what they're being with us, then it will have a value as a form of money. the difficulty as the other speakers have mentioned is that the very nature of this beast is such that it is incredibly bollocks and it's exposed to volatility across a very wide range more so perhaps in the other assets, it's exposed. geopolitical volatility. it's exposed to economic folks and it's
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exposed to sentiment volatility. it's exposed to regulation, since all of these are moving in a bit of a perfect storm against and indeed some other assets. moments in particular, regulatory one is the one which i think is the biggest bear case. that's where for those, the very success of criminal currency, it's showing that there is a market for a, for a anonymous just so monitoring transactions. products is one that central banks will not let go past the will, and they are moving toward central bank, the currency switch or not. and don't have the, the main event is that it's, it's not traceable. we use therefore, as you mentioned, for, you know, go to real life where in terms of purchasing central bank digital current seems to be really effective and have to part would not be centralized and will not be anonymous. okay?
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but there is a market out there, most people, most retail, best people, what really care that much like more of a once you go to look into their, into their systems book, you know, they can do that any way to read mystery and all right. name the decisions by the russians. the chinese a to band cooked or currency transactions is it is a justified in a fine answer work order. you know, i'm going to answer that question from a slightly different angle. if you are correct of labor and you are ready to buy big quite a price of a $69000.00 coin, why would you not buy it? a current price, which is more than 50 percent discount, regulate re stance is always being tough. be of re, had a over 15 different occasions when china sort of for now is crypto banning or
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moving to us. now russia also is doing that the, even the republic of pakistan was also thinking of buying criptos over back. but i think for traders and for investors, especially wall street banks, the most important aspect is, what is the u. s. stance to us? correct us. now we all know what black rockies, the biggest asset management company in the world backlog was the primary data. and the primary advisor to the us during the 2009 crisis during the corporate prices. now, black rock is a major stakeholder in crypto mining phones. i a big coin mining that really says a narrative where b quote is really going to be going. and in our research, and what we believe is that this is the last time perhaps we're going to see retraced me whether price would be trading below $50000.00. because the next bull
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rally, whenever that will happen, no one can predict and i'll be wrong if i will say that they, yes, we know. but that will run whenever that will happen. they'll take the prices of one above 100000 in maybe perhaps near 152200. ok. the correction on the plunge is going to bring. the price is back to $50.60 and at that time you will call that a crash. all right? generally law 50 for the happen. ok then the reason why i brought the issue of the a clamp down by countries like russia and, and china is that weeks ago, the head of the u. s. a of america securities and exchange commission, gary gansler said the following, when he was talking about crypto currencies. it's a market rife with food scams and abuse, living many people to believe that this could be the beginning of the end over of
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wiping business. yeah, i think you could say the same thing about any market around the world, whether that be, you know, us stock market, the us dollar, etc. i mean there's, there's plenty of examples in every market of abuse and fraud and everything else that again. so it was kind of pointing out, so i think it's, you know, pointing at crypto. certainly it's happening more in the crypto space because it's a much newer market. but fundamentally, i think things have gone to foreign new. i mean, you have, i've been too far to be stopped at this point, may have coin base as an example. you know, it's a multi $1000000000.00, a company that's listed on the stock exchange. you have many other mining companies that are already being listed are lining up for the fax or i p o. so i think the government really wanted to move around this and was really anti crypto. they would have had done that earlier because i think, you know, putting the genie back in the bottle at this point would be quite difficult for any of the regulators in the u. s. bryan,
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is it fair to say that just the very nature of crypto currency, the fact that it's digitally encrypted based on blocked shane, not controlled by any central authority. it is being widely described for a political reason as a threat to the financial stability. and therefore we're seeing those, those dips yeah, the the history of, of money and history money in your estates, in particular is littered with private money. and this is what crypto is. and private banks pro private money creating banks, and in the $918.00 thirty's, 18 forties and fifties. we saw these come and go with a gleeful abandon, deduced it also has in its political dna if it chooses to reach out to us a fairly significant history of if it wants to an a master. the present mood is such that it would camping down very hard and very fast and extremely large
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corporations that are deemed to be in the consumer and in national and self interest. the other problem, the crypto is exposed to, however, is one that we can hinted on earlier on which is about sentiment. and the reality is that big coin is an incredibly dirty currency. it's. it's a small asset in global terms, and yet it's, you know, the way in which it is produced in mind, whether it's in turkmenistan or in anywhere else. it tends to naturally go towards the cheapest kind of energy production, which at the moment is still typically going to be heavily carbon intensive a waste and became uses more electricity than medium sized countries. here because is the netherlands, bitcoin is new mexico and you know, some, a global warming perspective. people get very heads up the bos, yoga camping down on travel and worrying about whether they should just switch to
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a hybrid, you know, getting rid of criptos or not abdicating. that would knock a large chunk of the problem right out the window. now as anthropogenic global warming continues, as that becomes an existential thresh towards on trace. that's going to make the make it very least, a switch towards cleaner drip does. and there are keener glaze of both mining and using criptos become big, become a regulatory must. i think all right, now now you've listened to what brian has just been saying. now this fall out, is it manageable? or what do you think crypto currency should be doing in the near future to win the hearts and minds of the people and of their we're going to, to re, systems all over the world. sure, so i just wanted to make some comments. i was being said earlier, currency, our fear money isn't really green at all, is well, look at the amount of paper which has been circulated,
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ink and everything which comes with it. secondly, with respect to the big coin mining, now over 55 to nearly 60 percent of that money is being actually use the my, my thing is done through renewable energy number 3. if you believe in matter us, which is the next future, 3 o, then base currency is the future. digital currency is the future. number 4. now, actually, regulators within europe and i'm speaking of journey. the. the comic engine of the unit soon has allowed hedge funds to have a location up to 10 percent increase of currencies. once the dust will settle and we come out of this particular storm that we are currently facing with respect to bitcoin, you will see barrage of headlines coming out and mentioning corporate hedge funds institutions, probably offices buying criptos at major discount. it is in their favor. what is
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happening in the media, which is driving the price is lower a make no mistake. the money isn't really bad for failure to want to mentally friendly. well, i have to disagree. go ahead, go ahead. yes, yes, right. first of all, you know, the amount of money like money in our pockets as a percentage of global money is infinitesimally small. so yeah, you're absolutely right. the best big paperworks and, and stamping out coins is not particularly environmentally friendly. but the reality is, especially with call that we're moving towards a digital environment where money exists only as electrons. secondly, the amount of transactions in the amount of a timothy and the size of the entire crypto market is still incredibly small. by comparison to the global monetary environment and therefore, given i said i,
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i just might know out plenty let me go to highlight if you don't mind analysis give list is given. brian, if you like as a continuous eagle argument, people say, oh, you know, a crypto is just as dirty as goals, but the gold market is several times larger. so on he, you know, per dollar transaction basis. crypto is a dirty currency. no. what you said about digital currencies is absolutely correct . i think that is where we are going you know, and i was a central banker for a brief period and you know, not speaking as a central banker anymore. i have been for a long time, but central banks and governments will not allow private money in the end, the very success and the undoubted success of crypto currencies and all of the issues you mentioned such as met averse and the near digital natives are, you know, our next generations are, mullins will step in and they will create central baggage to currencies, which will then, you know, perforce, either by force or buy, but by usage regulates well, religous, bitcoin,
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and others to what it probably really is, which is a speculative asset class. rogan and actually manifests. right, well just for the sake of moving forward, i'd have to pick up from where you both of you agree, which is basically that digital currency is going to become a reality in the future. and now then, and in the meantime, this is a new speculative investment, and this explains why people are looking forward to see more history and data to be able to see how the can predict in the near future. i mean, to be able to do that. what do we have to implement? are we talking about regulations, 1st of all, traceability of the, of the, of the transactions themselves for this to be adopted by the international institutions? well, i think it's really, fundamentally, people believe, and if it has value to the math population, i mean, obviously now there's a, there's a certain subset of the population being both retail and institution leave that the
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coin is worth the 35000 dollars at the moment then at one point it was worth $60000.00 until you're your mother or your father, your family, believe in that as well. then we're always going to struggle with this all authority. and that's one of the reasons that, you know, the us dollar is, is, is so fungible and everybody accepts it, but it's accepted as a medium and exchange. and so, you know, the volatility around the exchange rate, all the other effects tend to go with us dollar as a reference point. in terms of traceability. you know, when we look at critical currencies in general, there are some very sophisticated players out there, or they're able to track pretty much where any of the big coins or any of the other crypto currencies have been, are going, you know, the days of this being completely anonymous or even pseudo anonymous or are pretty much coping. most of it is fairly traceable at this point. now, why is it taking government so long to cope with this near reality? that's true to congress is have to become part of the daily financial transactions
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. i think it's for governments to react and historically looking at these particular histories of money and how many different fietta currencies existed. it actually takes quite some time for regulators to get a complete handle on this thing. and if you look at it, especially in the u. s, i think the fact that we have companies like coin base and a number of other companies being listed on the us exchanges. and then this training trend is highly likely to continue, especially meant war 3 giants like, goldman sachs, shaping morgan city bank. and all of these banks are actually offering this particular asset class, whether that's a speculative other that's considered as a store value really stems the case for the crypt occurrences to flourish from here onwards. brian, should we, there is another argument which is basically why don't we focus this time more on stable coins as
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a bridge between the somehow stable assets like the dollar and the gold and the curb to currencies. and when we build that trust, it would pay the way for crypto currency to further thrive in the future and people to build trust, trust with it. so the problem with stable coins is not all stable coins are stable . there is different kinds of stable kinds. the, the big one we all know about his tether and there are, you know, persistent questions about the actual backing for tether. the way in which tether operates and its relationship with some of the larger players. this is well documented. there are other crypto stable kinds out there that are backed by commodities. and of course we know that there are commodity cycles and super cycles . if you have a crypto currency, which is fully transparently 100 percent, but by, you know, let's say euro's it's a problem in search of the solution. what, what i just used euros directly is that are going through an intermediary. and so i
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don't think stable coins are the are the solution. ok, they may help some people to mitigate there volatility. but they're not, you know, they're not the solution to are you know, why criptos are knocking adopted the criptos will be adopted. widespread when you can pay your taxes in them, it's not going to get a coffee. ok then, and we've seen moments where, where in el salvador, you know, crypto libertarian fans have said, oh, you know, just let people use crypto and you'll see step to peer currency is, will be abolished and the hunt. alright. there's that. and now when you look at most of the government, including the u. s. a thinking about the post cove with reality is in terms of how to tackle in inflation and also to how to move beyond the stimulus packages that was translated immediately with this are urged by most of the investors to look for new equities, the more attractive to high tech companies,
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and this explains why somehow they are really staying away from risk and when it comes to risk, this explains why the crew to currency is paying the price. what should the crypto currency industry itself do to be appealing to the investors? i think to a certain extent, the fiscal policy and monetary policy of the us government is, is outside of the control of everybody besides the us government and regulators. i think what we've seen in the crypto industry over the past few years has been relatively impressed. impressive for 2 significant areas. first of all, there's a lot more professionals that are getting into it. i mean, here in singapore constantly, we're hearing of bankers that are working for large financial institutions and shifting over to triple crypto. so it is professionalized and quite a bit and that's the effecting the 2nd part which is the solutions that they bring into market. i mean a lot of these are, are developed by industry professionals who have a very clear idea of what's happening in market. so i think the sophistication of the platforms that are coming out and the crypto companies that are coming out is,
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is quite a bit different than we saw the last run up in maybe 20172018. so i think it kind of signals the new market for a crypt on a new level of maturity for the industry. but at the same time, it is, as you mentioned, a very high risk asset, so long with tech stocks and other other asset classes. we've seen them take a beating over the past couple of months as a government in the us has gotten more hawkish. certainly, fiscal and monetary content that we'd be interesting to see how that could cause who was able to manage this dramatic slide. and i am a slim and then an capron, brian lissy. i really appreciate your insights and looking forward to talking to you in the near future. thank you to for watching. you can see the program. i got it. i love visiting our website and just the dot com for further discussion. cuz our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a j insights for you can also join the conversation on twitter. i'll hand it is add a j insights photo for me. how sure about the entire team here in doha bye. for now,
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the ah a february on i just need a china host the winter olympics, but will diplomatically costs and the corona virus overshadow the event. rigorous debate them unflinching questions. up front cuts through the headlights to challenge conventional wisdom. al jazeera keeps you up to date as mason tackle the overcome barrier amid continued vaccine inequality. 11 east investigates. how
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breaks the pandemic and changing pace, or causing the great british curry crisis. the african union hope it's 30 pace ordinary session. the 1st with israel as an observer state with several nations campaigning against israel status and person issues across the continent. there is much to discuss february on a just either americans are increasingly saying authoritarianism might not be so bad. there were several steps along the way where the chain of command it's like tried to cover what's your take on why they've gotten this so wrong? that to me is political malpractice, the bottom line on us politics and policies, and the impact on the world on al jazeera pick take to ships to democracies. activists to corporations, control of the message is crucial oil companies and become very good at recognizing ways to phrase what they want him to hear. we care about the environment you do to you should buy our oil cleared for public opinion or profit. once you make people
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afraid, you can use that to justify stripping away basic civil liberties. the listening post examined the vested interest behind the content you consume on al jazeera. ah, who can validate with help stories on the al jazeera, a curfew has been opposed and the key to fall. so in the infinite shot down of the soldier stage, mutiny several barracks earlier the government insisted it remains in control denying that there was an attempted coup. heavy gunfire was heard barracks in the capital and at a nearby air base. from one to do, grew henry wilkins reports downside military barracks in downtown. why could neary comb broken only by the sound of gunfire.


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