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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  January 27, 2022 8:30pm-9:01pm AST

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and everywhere you go, are you see evidence of the other thing has happened, which is school closes. so there are children on the streets in parks are building snowman, throwing snowballs at the stuff in the air. now the precipitation right now is turning a bit wet though, so this could be a fleeting, if memory will experience a rare, proper snow day in the holy city. ah, this is, are the 0. these are the top stories. russia says the us and nato have failed to properly address its security concerns, particularly about ukraine. although it says it's possible to continue with talks. the western powers of refused moscow's demand to bar ukraine from the security alliance. alan fisher has more from washington d. c. at some point in the next day or so, we're expecting joe biden to make a decision about the 1500 trips that are on heightened standby in the us. they are
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ready to move at a moment's notice to countries surrounding ukraine, not to ukraine itself, but the could end up in poland and romania. all of this part of an effort says the white house to reinforce nieto at a crucial point. but of course, it also puts pressure on the russians to say, look, we're ready, please don't cross those border. the 1st female president of honduras is due to be sworn n c o. mata castro takes over from to town president one orlando hernandez, but a split and a party in congress is overshadowing the inauguration ceremony. poland has started building a 180 kilometer wall, and it's border with bella luce, it's expected to be completed by next summer. european union accuses minutes of encouraging thousands of refugees to cross into poland illegally as a way to get in to the european union. denmark is withdrawing soldiers from mali after military leaders demanded that they leave the danes for part of
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a french lead counter terrorism task force callback armed groups linked to al qaeda and i sold denmark's foreign minister said around a 100 soldiers was invited. molly's military government says that's not true. france says knowledge taken an irresponsible decision. qu, leaders in bucket of fossil have warned former ministers not to leave the capital or obstruct to military officers. monday's military crew is to be discussed at an emergency meeting of west africa leaders and friday. regional organization echo was as condemned to take over and the u. n's demanding, the immediate release of deposed president was quoting you to pay and union is launching a legal action against china. the world trade organization in use as beijing is punishing lithuania by blocking trading ports because of its stance on taiwan. those are the headlines coming up next inside story. goodbye. ah.
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can europe be weaned off russian gas? lead is a worried that moscow will turn off the taps, if tensions with ukraine, worse than. but will the alternative be enough to fuel europe's energy needs? this isn't sensory ah, i walk into the program, i'm wrong, con rushes. the biggest source of natural gas for your it's crucial fainting up homes, especially during the winter. moscow's disrupted gas flows in the possible political pups is, for example, when russia annex crimea in 2014, so as tensions on ukraine,
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worse than european leaders are worried about history being repeated. the united states is scrambling to help in europe in ally, secure alternatives. it's negotiating with oil and gas supplies. in north africa, the middle east and asia, the mayor of got that. the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas rollin g is due to meet the u. s. president. on monday, washington concedes diverting global glass supplies will be a huge task. no question. there are logistical challenges of especially moving natural gas. we. we know that that's part of our discussion with a lot of these companies and countries. um, but again, these conversations are ongoing and we don't intend to fail him here. guess more than 40 percent of his natural gas and russia, but a 3rd of that passes through ukraine. moscow has already reduced the amount flowing into europe, causing shortages and pushing prices to record levels. now russia that threatened to cut supplies further if sanctions are imposed and then not just on gas,
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but also on oil and metals. some countries depend on russia more than others. germany gets more than half of its gas supplies from russia. and that dependency would increase if the german government gives its final approval to the nod stream to pipeline. ah, let's bring our guests in moscow puzzle failed in our a defense and military analyst in burn, cornelia mayor, seo of mayor resource, and a specialist in oil and gas, and in berlin. o, rick brooklyn, a professor of political science at stanford university in berlin. welcome to the program. let's begin. inborn with a colina maya calling. this is not as easy as russia, switching off the gas pipeline. and america coming to rescue with lots of new natural gas is it's a lot more complicated that oh, it's much, much more complicated because you know, the, some gas pipelines, the pipeline gas from russia that bates 5060 years back. and these are old
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relationships and, and europe only gets that much m l n g guess which can, which comes partially from the u. s. m. so it's not quite, it's not quite that easy. and for russia, it's also different than it was last time around, which is 2014. when the crimean ukraine crisis happened, because at that time, russia was totally dependent for each entity, revenues on europe. now about 30 plus percent of its own oil goes to china, 40 plus percent were shamia. and in terms of gas, also the chinese are off take is increasing. so wilson, it's still 72 percent it's, it's dwindling. so we're in a very, very different economic and cio political environment or pover hogan. however,
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does that mean the russia has in some respect, some regards the upper hand. it can actually threaten to cut supplies, but not completely because it doesn't have the money. but that does have an impact on europe. well, the russian official position is that russia will not threaten or cut supplies. but if there's going to be a further escalation, maybe even there was some fighting on the border, there was more work effectively actually technically cut the gas if and suppliers we through ukraine and the so that's a situation where russian of gas surprised the europe could be drastically cut and maybe could be cut altogether, and that would be bad for everyone. because russia, yes, it has right now. so it means applying some natural gas to ukraine through
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china, or we're building up the capability to exports liquefied gas in the north. but still the main russian suburban of a rain russian client is a europe. and of course, russia itself. russia grants a surprise, a lot of gas to its own people and some industries. but europe is of course, very important. you can't really divert right now. technically, the gas that goes to europe, again diverted the china that just simply or some other kind of market debt that won't work. so this is going to be, if there's going to be a cost that we but, but all of tried to make it very short, because it's going to be disastrous for all sides. oller, o, rec, brooklyn, in berlin. this is not just the case of kind of geo politics being played out, but it's also g a business as well. these pipelines on just run by countries. they run by corporations. a lot of those corporations are going to lose billions of dollars. if this goes on for any length of time, did they have
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a site in what russia might be able to do? well, i wouldn't say too much of the influence of corporations, but it is very clear that it's not only about your politics. it's also about business, the united states became in december the large has produced producer of liquefied gas. and they are fracking industry all over the country, urgently needs to explore it in the markets. so it was very hard for everyone in the united states to understand why am the ally like germany signs a deal with russia to enhance the dependency when the united states provide security and germany bias, even war gas from russia at times when we declare that because of climate change, we will reduce energy hunger that stands from fossil fuels. if that's a very interesting point to me, miss my, let's take the up with you. there is a,
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like when we're talking about not just business, but we talk about politics as well. however, we have an interesting point that the americans provide security to germany, yet germany is buying gas from russia is wise that well, you know, and the days of a historic relationship between russia and germany and, and, and the german de ross. so german business goes well beyond the gas, but, but yeah, you, germany needs gas to heat, it's houses. and when you look at what happened over the last few months in terms of escalating gas prices and inflation coming from it, it was, was quite em something you know, a 400 percent more, 500 percent more. so dad was quite quite a bit. so in dad send some if you r e, it did that, this is important and yes,
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we all want to do. we all want to be less dependent on fossil fuels. but that energy transition is not going to happen overnight and let us not forget that gas is the cleanest fossil fuel. so it's a good transitional fuel. so in that sense, it's important that billions of dollars have been invested into the north stream. am to pipeline a powerful this is not just about then the, the west worrying about energy supplies. russia relies on this foreign currency the, the money it makes from orland gas pipelines like so. russia, this is going to home russia as well, or, or is it any kind of a break up of a relationship with europe or harm russia? immensely. europe, as russia's biggest, i mean european union is russia's biggest trading partner ago in terms of nations though china right now. so number one, but as a block europe,
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europe is more important. and there's a lot of old, a real, a business relationship, especially between mosque or russia and germany. there's a lot of connections on different levels. i mean, russian president vladimir putin is very fluent and german and addressed the blunder stark, once speaking german. so they read the russia was always looking to, for a special relationship with germany and germ drive, very much wants to make germany a kind of hub for russia and gas supplies to all of western europe, and possibly bypassing ukraine. and that would be our kind of break up of that through a while and break up of those relationship would be very costly in terms of poetical and in terms of money to or this isn't the 1st time we've seen energy being used as
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a diplomatic political weapon this happened in the seventy's when opec decided it wasn't going to supply the west with oil over a variety of different things, including actually how much money they were getting for, for their oil. so at the, had there been lessons learned from previous situations like this, or is it a once again, it's going in blindly. this is actually something that history of seems to repeat itself because the situation and the 1970 is when opec entered the scene as a cartel. that drastically increased the, not only the energy costs, but the political costs of energy for energy hungry industrialized countries like germany. we had a social democratic government and the social democratic government used the trade relations with. ready russia as a trust building instrument to widen the scope of dialogue with soviet union counterparts to paved the way forward then happened as the end of the cold war
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and the re unification of germany and the u. reunification of the divided continent . bower again, we have a social democratic government and a lot of the older person. now, this flirting with the idea that we could do something similar, try to understand russians vested interests, and try to build a bridge and the less confrontational. this is also strongly supported by governors in the eastern part of germany will also believe that russia has a point in its line of argumentation. but germany is isolated in that perspective. and every one else believes that it would be far better if the west speaks with one voice and sounds of strict cigna to russia that it would never have our cross right . lions. and again violate international law. so in this mish mash and she is not just a question of will the, our homes be warm but also will germany pay a prize?
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i dropped the north street to coney meyer. i see you kind of disagreeing that with a guest in berlin. how to say, why, why, why you disagree? well, i'm agreeing and i'm disagreeing. i think yes, termini and the german government am, are very, and especially in the eastern piped off are some of germany. they're very close to that they did. they do want to see that that, that and the to relationship with russia going on where i disagree slightly. is that the previous government with, with mrs. marco, it was very clear that that norm's north stream, too, was non negotiable. and it would go ahead and i was thinking of the billions of dollars that have been invested. you can understand why that is a case. whereas now, yes, olaf sholtes, he's a social there muskrat and he wants to see no strain to come on scream. but he is in band or in coalition with the greens who are very look they differently at
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a fossil fuels of which gas this one and b, especially the foreign minister elani and elena baylock is very skeptical of russia and human rights policy and so on. and is made no call about it. so yes, wilson, i think all of shall still wants to see no scream. still going ahead. it's not quite as clear cut as that as i think it was before. the new government puzzles hogan. how the amir of cattle, one of the biggest supplies of ellen, g, liquid lodge for i can never say rush, ellen, delicious color dust has been, will be meeting with biden, very short is of concern to the russians. i will, this is an opportunity of course for the america gas industry to increase its share of the european market. actually have new sport facilities coming online
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soon and they can increase their exports of gas and the natural gas and shelly as a european market is a reliable market. so you yes, the for them, that's an opportunity. and also there's a political agenda there to put the europeans into i and, and kind of lead them in that quest to against russia. and that's kind of what that, how it works during the cold war often. and now apparently, it's the old card table, the old cards, but with the new meaning, i mean one sanctuary in, during the $67.00 warren and middle east america was which was then an oil exporter . i helped a you were about when there was an arab or by court of europe, rent an oil exports that time. it didn't work. of course in 73,
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it was already very different. and then it didn't work very well by the for opec, but american now is taking on that position. and that's for them very advantageous . what do you think over a group that america is taking all and effectively energy diplomacy, energy policies that are going to help and with europe? i mean, is it that simple? i kind of think it isn't. well, i was really surprised a few years ago when the congress sanctioned companies that are located in ally countries in nato countries. because this was unheard of that a country flexes muscles with such an obvious economic interest. although we have to keep them dependent on each other and we are in the same boat when it comes to the security alliance. but coming back to the previous question, maybe i didn't make myself clear. what i wanted to say is,
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this is the picture of interest in the new government. if you ask my personal opinion, the level of escalation makes not stream to debt. it's not happened to your team pressure, the pressure from neighboring countries. the pressure from the united states makes it very, very unlikely that germany can go wrong with conditions that have trusted. you changed wells, pulled that to both of august has begin with the calling your maya notes for him to his dead course. wrong statement. i don't think it's that yet. i don't think it's that yet because andy and we're dealing with them or chris's and if gas prices are going to high and people me, it's heat versus food and people will. we'll, we'll, we'll well go in and it's billions and billions of dollars and it's not gas from billions. it's also r w e. billions that, that went in there. and just quickly coming back to ellen, she linked with like natural gas. yes, there is u. s. not l m g back can come in to europe,
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but we don't have that many re gas, if he can cation tramos yet. that can take out all d, m, all the, all the pipeline gas coming from the east. that's, that's the 1st thing. and let us not forget, in terms of cat that most of the got that a gas goes towards east and china has become very big china. this here is becoming the largest importer of l n t. after japan and korea. so we have, we'll, we'll competition here for the if are the l m t molecules of pablo. same question to you know, streams, who pipeline from russia into germany, august and berlin says is effectively dead. what do you think one long matter? of course, that would be very bad news for other people and may be smart. that did actually be mean technically it's built and there, ah, if the present acute crisis, so we're ukraine, them between russia and the west. russia may go get some kind of more or less
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permanent. resolution may be more stream, could be part of that resolution. see a kind of bonus for russia, taking him to acting more in a more kind of concerned show matters. another place that could be part of a quid pro quo between no rush and the west, or at least may be germany with one to make it part of a quid pro quo. so that's not most likely yet dead, but it's in serious problems. that's of back. oh right brooklyn you've had well to guess have had to say anything there that might change your mind. well, if this is a bargain shaped, one can discuss it because it is very difficult to see what other outcome could be presented as a positive result that moscow can present as a victory. and is confrontational situation. if this discussion would have been
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a year ago, i would have totally agreed that we talk about energy. and we are dependent on the imports given that germany is fading out from nuclear and coal at the same time. and we cannot increase renewables as quickly as necessary to feed the energy hunger in an industrial country like germany. but now that we face a $100000.00 russian troops and circling ukraine, germany is not willing to deliver our arms to ukraine. and every one else is looking at the largest country in europe. that is, doesn't leave out to the expectations of nato. and what's ukraine expects from germany? and if we then continue as business as usual with opening not supreme tool that we become completely unreliable. but if this is the bargain shape, and actually what the kremlin is most be interested in, that they don't want to dump the billions that have been invested in not speak to.
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it might be a happy ending for everyone involved. well, let's talk about the other bargaining chip, which has katherine coline, a maya as i understand it. so has a number of deals with eastern countries. picky china? as you mentioned, a lot of those deals are on 25 year terms. so how do i, how does that change when it comes to spare capacity? does cattle have the ability to actually give some gas to europe or is it all tied up in long term deals? is there, is there capacity for cattle to get involved at the bequest of the, the americans there is capacity for cut out to get it to get involved at the bequest us or some of, of, of america. but there are limitations to that. and then let's not forget days, australia, there are other produces of l n g who can, who can trip in as well. but again, it becomes a matter of price. and yes, we have the geopolitical dimension,
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but we also math democracies. we have governments who need to get re elected and if, if costs a voice heating people's houses and went the spiral out of control at that becomes quite tough. so i'm optimistic that that one can find some sort of accommodation and that russia is very clear that this is part of, of, of their, of their bargaining strategy to find some accommodation on north stream to. and let us not forget, you know, we all feel sorry for the ukraine, but you no doubt if it's not been that clear cut, clear sailing between the ukraine and russia and between the ukraine and europe. and it's, it's, it's, it gas and paying an energy bills and so on has been and has been a, has been an issue so, so it's, it's, it's, it's just very, very complex indeed. oppo hogan how it like, where does russia back down here?
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is it when they get reassurance, is that ukraine weren't join nato, which is a key demand. is it when they withdrawal their troops according to the best of the americans? or is it simply when there's a gas and oil diplomacy, political solution, presented to them? what was the whale for russia? melissa, clearly complex situation and they're complex, actually opinions of mosque with can. it's not that we're all kind of marching here in a one a file, or they are different opinions inside the crime one and a grubman administration of how to deal with this situation. i, president putin, of course, is the ultimate decision maker, but he is more of a moderator between the firm to pay a serious groups of opinions. i hope that there will be, of course, there will be lots of military maneuvers. they're happening right now. height and state military readiness and all that stuff which could result in military escrow
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asia or a bit won't. and the maneuvers low and the of the situation will kind of calm down, at least in march, april. there will be time to begins, do something on the front of negotiations. and with this very carpet is not that there is the one kind of issue that changes all the rest. it's a very complex situation and sorry with that we are running out of time. i'm sorry we are running out of time to do, and i come to our guest in berlin. i mean to clearly jim needs a big part of all of this. where are they hoping this situation lands, are they hoping for the ill be over quickly will, can they, are they in this with local? well, it's not so much a question of timing, the demand from russia to guarantee that nato and the european union won't expand any further questions. the core principle of what western organizations stand for.
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this is the self determination of nations that can decide whether they join an organization or not. so we cannot decide other countries whether they send an application to join an organization or not. politically or practically, ukraine is far from joining ever. the european union on this goes without saying, everybody knows it. so i do not really see what russia gets out of this. and if it starts with a made a statement that it is afraid of nato is attacking the russian soil. and in the end, everything, all it gets out is the opening of north street. it sounds a bit absurd to me. i want to thank all our guests probably fell going out coline and alright. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again, any time buy this thing a website out there, a dot com for the discussion. go to
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a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is act a jane sites for me. am wrong calling from the whole team. ah ah. a shilling. the debates they erased out of like people from the american and global story was very powerful on an online ad your voice. the comment section is right here. join our conversation, we had all protected when everyone is protected. it is not by being nationalistic
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about us. you just look at it in a very different way. say that perspective men and men meeting each other and they don't have any solution. let me put it clear for you this dream. on al jazeera, the 35th meeting of the african union will see heads of states discussed cobit 19 in the conflict in ethiopia, with climate change, but keener fatso and other west african coups high on the agenda. can they deliver a unified response to the regions mounting challenges, special coverage on out just sierra ah, holding the powerful to account. as we examined the u. s. seats row in the world on al jazeera, we town the untold stories. ah, we speak when others done. ah, we cover all sides. no matter where it takes us. i believe we have fan sir guy with
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