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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  January 28, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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so currency john holman, out visitor, el salvador astronomers in australia have discovered a spooky celestial object, which they say is unlike anything they've ever seen before. the mysterious body releases a huge burst of energy like clockwork, every 18 minutes and 18 seconds. the lead research says there are other objects in the galaxy that switch on and off, but nothing with such frequency as ever be detected before. ah, it's exactly half past the hour. let's update your top stories. russia's foreign minister says the country does not want war with ukraine, but the kremlin won't allow its interests to be ignored. sag elaborate was speaking of, to the u. s. warren, to russian invasion was a distinct possibility. well, in the ice, coal trenches of ukraine, there's fear anxiety, but resilience among the soldiers. film and natural for that one is the modern why yoga or navy is not strong enough to withstand the heavy attack. so i think the
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coastline could be easily captured. that's my opinion. everyone thinks about a possible invasion through car curve or don bass. that's wrong. if it's necessary to attack those, do it from the see. don't mind that games, like we had hopes for a better future, but if necessary, we will fight back. but we really hope there will be no attack to martin mchugh is the ultimate m, delivered by russia to nato. and the u. s. confirms that they are not ready for compromise or dialogue about them or would china's foreign ministry since the un human rights chief is welcome to visit indian, but not to officially investigate claims of abuses, human rights groups of accused china, of the master tension and torture of weak muslims, north korea has confirmed it. test fired a series of ballistic missiles on thursday. pyongyang has carried at 6 launches this month in defiance of the un security council. the country's leader kim jong own was seen at a factory there that state media says,
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helps to manufacture missiles in the u. k. london's metropolitan police force has weighed in on the report, being prepared by a leading civil servant to alleged social gatherings at the prime minister for his johnson's official residence officers say they want minimal references to be made about events they're investigating, which took place at the height of the pandemic restrictions of west african leaders are holding a virtual emergency meeting after the military coup and burkina faso. the regional block echo was condemned to take over. but the military leader in the country says that will only be returned to constitutional order when conditions are right. police in iraq safely, 6 rockets hit bank dance international airport. the attack cause significant damage to an aircraft, but no casualties were reported. no group claimed responsibility. those are your headlines. the news continues here on out to 0 after inside story, adrian will keep you company in the coming hours. i will see you very soon.
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ah. in europe, the window of russian gas lead is worried that moscow will turn off the taps if tensions with ukraine wilson. but will the alternative be enough to fill europe's energy needs? this is inside. sorry. ah, i walk into the program. i'm in ron con. rush is the biggest source of natural gas for your it's crucial fading up homes, especially during the winter. moscow's disrupted gas flows in the past of
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a political pups is, for example, when russia annex crimea in 2014, so as tensions on ukraine, worse than european leaders are worried about history being repeated. the united states is scrambling to help at european allies, secure alternatives. it's negotiating with oil and gas supplies. north africa, the middle east, and asia, the mayor of got that. the world's largest produce of liquefied natural gas rollin g is due to meet the u. s. president on monday, washington concedes diverting global glass supplies will be a huge task. no question. there are logistical challenges, especially moving. i natural gas our we, we know that that's part of our discussion with a lot of these companies and countries. um, but again these conversations are i'm going and we don't intend to fallon here, i guess more than 40 percent of his natural gas and russia. but a 3rd of that passes through ukraine. moscow has already reduced the amount flowing into europe,
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causing shortages and pushing prices to record levels. now rushes that threatened to cut supplies further if sanctions are imposed and they're not just on gas, but also on oil and metals. some countries depend on russia more than others. germany gets more than half of its gas supplies from russia. and that dependency would increase if the german government gives its final approval to the north stream to pipeline. ah, let's bring our guests in moscow. pavel failed in our a defense and military analyst in burn, cornelia mayor, seo of mayor resource, and especially in oil and gas, and in berlin. o, rick brooklyn, a professor of political science at stanford university in berlin. welcome to the program. let's begin. inborn with a colina maya calling. this is not as easy as russia, switching off the gas pipeline. and america coming to rescue with lots of new natural gas is it's a lot more complicated than that. oh, it's much,
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much more complicated because you know, the, some gas pipelines, the pipeline gas from russia that bates 5060 years back. and these are old relationships and, and europe only gets that much m l n g guess which can, which comes partially from the u. s. m, so it's not quite, it's not quite that easy. and for russia, it's also different than it was last time around, which is 2014. when the cry me and ukraine crisis happened. because at that time, russia was totally dependent for 8 and a 2 revenues on europe. now about 30 plus percent of its own oil goes to china, 40 plus percent were shamia. and in terms of gas, also, the chinese are off take is increasing. so we'll see it's still 72
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percent. it's, it's dwindling. so we're in a very, very different economic and cio political environment or pover hogan. however, does that mean the russia has in some respect, some regards the upper hand. it can actually threaten to cut supplies, but not completely because it doesn't have the money, but that does have an impact on europe. well, the russian official position is that russia will not threaten or cut supplies. but if there's going to be a further escalation, may be been there were some fighting on the border there with more or less effectively, actually technically cut the gas if and suppliers we through ukraine and the so that's a situation where russian of gas surprised the europe could be drastically cut and maybe could be current altogether, and that would be bad for everyone. because russia, yes, it has right now. so it means applying some natural gas to ukraine
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through china, or we're building up the capability to exports liquefied gas in the north. but still the main russian suburban of a rain russian client is a europe. and of course, russia itself. russia gives a surprise, a lot of gas to its own people and some industries, but europe is of course, very important. you can't really divert right now. technically, the gas that goes to europe, again diverted to china that just simply or some other kind of market debt that won't work. so this is going to be if there is going to be a cost that believe it. but all of tried to make it very short because it's going to be disastrous for all sides. alert over at brooklyn in berlin. this is not just the case of kind of geo politics being played out, but it's also geo business as well. these pipelines aren't just run by countries, they run by corporations. a lot of those corporations are going to lose billions of
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dollars. if this goes on for any length of time, do they have a site in what russia might be able to do? well, i wouldn't think too much of the influence of corporations, but it is very clear that it's not only about politics, it's also about business. the united states became in december, the large was produced producer of liquefied gas. and they have fracking industry all over the country urgently needs to explore markets. so it was very hard for everyone in the united states to understand why an ally like germany signs a deal with russia to enhance the dependency. when the united states provide security and germany bias, even war gas from russia at times when we declare that because of climate change, we will reduce energy hunger that stands from fossil fuels. if that's
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a very interesting point to i. busy miss my, let's take the up with you. there is a like when we're talking about not just business, but we're talking about politics as well. however, we have an interesting point that the americans provide security to germany. germany is buying gas from russia is wise that well, you know, and the days of a historic relationship between russia and germany and, and determine the ross. so german business goes well beyond gas. but, but yeah, you're germany needs gas to heat. it's houses. and when you look at what happened over the last few months in terms of escalating gas prices and inflation coming from it, it was, was quite m something, you know, 400 percent more, 500 percent more. so that was quite, quite a bit. so in that sense,
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so if you r e, it did that, this is important and yes, we all want to do, we will want to be less dependent on fossil fuels. but that energy transition is not going to happen overnight and let us not forget that gas is the cleanest fossil fuel. so it's a good transitional fuel. so in that sense, it's important that billions of dollars have been invested into the north stream to pipeline a portable this is not just about then the, the west worrying about energy supplies. russia relies on this foreign currency that the money it makes from orland gas pipelines like so. russia, this is going to home russia as well. oh, or is it any kind of a break up buffer relationship with europe or harm russia immensely. europe is russia's biggest. i mean, european union is russia's biggest trading partner ago in terms of nations though
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china right now. so number one, but as a block europe, europe is more important. and there's a lot of old about really a business relationship, especially between mosque or russia and germany. there's a lot of connections on different levels. i mean, russian president, redeemer butch, in is very fluent and german, and addressed the bundle, start, go on speaking german. so they read the russia was always looking to, for a special relationship with germany and germ drive, very much wants to make germany a kind of hub for rush and gas supplies to all of western europe, and possibly bypassing ukraine. and that would be our kind of break up of that through a while and break up of those relationship would be very costly in terms of poetical and in terms of money to or of this isn't the 1st time we've seen energy being
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used as a diplomatic political weapon, this happened in the seventy's when opec decided it wasn't going to supply the west with oil over a variety of different things, including actually how much money they were getting for, for their oil. so at the, had there been lessons learned from previous situations like this, or is it a once again, it's going in blindly. this is actually something that history of seems to repeat itself. because the situation in the 1970 is when opec entered the scene as a cartel, that drastically increased the, not only the energy costs, but the political costs of energy for energy hungry industrialized countries like germany. we had a social democratic government and the social democratic government use the trade relations with. ready russia as a trust building instrument to widen the scope of dialogue with soviet union
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counterparts to paved the way forward then happened as the end of the cold war and the re unification of germany under you reunification of the divided continent . power, again, we have a social democratic government and a lot of the older person. now, this flirting with the idea that we could do something similar, try to understand russians vested interests, and try to build a bridge and the less confrontational. this is also strongly supported by governors in the eastern part of germany will also believe that russia has a point in its line of argumentation. but germany is isolated in that perspective. and every one else believes that it would be far better if the west speaks with one voice and sounds of strict sickness to russia, that it should never have our cross right. lions, and again violate international law. so in this mishmash, energy is not just
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a question of will our homes be warm, but also will germany pay a prize? i dropped the north street to aconia meyer. i see you kind of disagreeing, that with a guest in berlin. how to say why, why, why you disagree? well, i'm agreeing and i'm disagreeing. i think yes, germany and the german government am, are very and especially in the east and piped off are some of germany. they're very close to that they did. they do want to see that that, that, and the to relationship with russia going on where i disagree slightly. is that the previous government with, with mrs. marco, it was very clear that that norms no extreme to was non negotiable, and it would go ahead and i was thinking of the billions of dollars that have been invested. you can understand why that is the case. whereas now, yes, all of sholtes. he's a social there muskrat, and he wants to see no strain to come on stream,
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but he is in bed or in coalition with the greens who are very look they differently at a fossil fuels of which gas this one and b, especially the foreign minister landing and that lena bear book is very skeptical of russia and human rights policy and so on and is made no call about it. so yes, wilson, i think all of shall still wants to see no extreme. still going ahead. it's not quite as clear cut as that as i think it was before the new government poses hogan. how the amir of cato, one of the biggest supplies of ellen, g, liquid notch for i can never say rush. ellen delicious, cooler guess, has been we'll be meeting with biden, very short is of concern to the russians. and well, this is an opportunity, of course, for the american or gas industry to increase its share of the european market.
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actually have new sports or facilities coming online and soon and they can increase their sports of gas and natural gas. and shelley, as a european market is a reliable market. so yes, there for them. that's an opportunity. and also there's a political agenda there to put the europeans into i and, and kind of lead them in the quest to against russia. and that's kind of what that, how it works during the cold war often. and now apparently it's the old card table, the old cards, but with a new meaning. i mean, once actually in, during the $67.00 warren and middle east america was, which was then an oil exporter helped a year about when there was an arab. i break off of europe in oil
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exports that time. it didn't work, of course in 73, it was already very different. and then it didn't work very well by the for opec, but american now is taking on that position. and that's for them very advantageous . what do you think over a quote that america is taking on effectively energy diplomacy, energy policies that are going to help it with europe? i mean, is it that simple? i kind of think it isn't. well, i was really surprised a few years ago when the congress sanctioned companies that are located in ally countries in nato countries. because this was unheard of that a country flexes muscles with such an obvious economic interest. although we keep them dependent on each other and we on the same boat when it comes to the security alliance. but coming back to the previous question,
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maybe i didn't make myself clear. what i wanted to say is, this is the picture of interest in the new government. if you ask my personal opinion, the level of escalation makes not stream to dead. it's not hampton is yours to your team pressure. the pressure from neighboring countries, the pressure from the united states, makes it very, very unlikely that germany can go on with conditions that have trusted you changed? well, let's pull that to both of i guess. let's begin with calling your maya notes for him to his dead. quite strong statement. i don't think it's that yet. i don't think it's that yet, because in the end we're dealing with them or chris's and if gas prices are going to high and people know it's heat versus food and people will, will, it will, it will well go in and it's billions and billions of dollars and it's not gas from billions, it's also r w e 1000000000. spat that went in there and just quickly coming back to ellen te
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liquefied natural gas. yes, there is us, not al empty that can come in to europe, but we don't have that many re gas, if he can't cation tramos yet. that can take out all d, m, all the, all the pipeline gas coming from the east. that's, that's the 1st thing and let us not forget, in terms of cat that most of the got that a gas goes towards east and china has become very big china. this here is becoming the largest importer of l. n t after japan and korea. so we have, we'll, we'll competition here for the if are the l m t molecules up pablo. same question to, you know, streams, who pipeline from russia into germany august in berlin says is effectively dead. what do you think long, long must? of course, that would be very bad news for office depot and may be smart. that could actually be mean, technically it's built, it's there. i,
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if the present acute crisis, so were you, graham, and between russia and the west, russia may go get some kind of more or less permanent. resolution may be more stream, could be part of that resolution. see a kind of bonus for russia, taking a bu, acting more. ah, in a more kind of concerned show matters. another place that could be part of a quid pro quo between no rush and the west, or at least may be germany with one to make it part of it with grow quote. so that's not most likely yet dead, but it's in serious problems. that's of back. oh right brooklyn you've had to guess have had to say anything there that might change your mind. well, if this is a bargain shaped, one can discuss it because it is very difficult to see what other outcome could be presented as a positive result that moscow can present as
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a victory and this confrontational situation. if this discussion would have been a year ago, i would have totally agreed that we talk about energy. and we are dependent on the imports given that germany is fading out from nuclear and coal at the same time. and we cannot increase renewables as quickly as necessary to feed the energy hunger in an industrial country like germany. but now that we face a $100000.00 russian troops and circling ukraine, germany is not willing to deliver our arms to ukraine. and every one else is looking at the largest country in europe. that is, doesn't live up to the expectations of nato. and what you cry and expect from germany. and if we then continue as business as usual with opening not supreme tool that we become completely unreliable. but if this is the bargain shape,
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and actually what the kremlin is mostly interested in, that they don't want to dominate the billions that have been invested in not speak to. it might be a happy ending for everyone involved. well, let's talk about the other bargaining chip, which is catherine calling your lawyer as i understand it. so has a number of deals with eastern countries, particular china, as you mentioned, a lot of those deals are on 25 year terms. so how do, how does that change when it comes to spare capacity? does cattle have the ability to actually give some garcia, europe, or is it all tied up in long term deals? is there, is there capacity for cattle to get involved at the bequest of the, the americans there is capacity for cut out to get it to get involved at the request of awesome of, of, of, of america. but there are limitations to that. and then let's not forget, baseless trail. yeah. are there other for uses of l n g who can, who can trip in as well. but again, it becomes a matter of price. and yes,
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we have the geopolitical dimension. but we also ask democracies, we have governments who need to get re elected. and if, if costs avoid heating people's houses and went the spiral out of control it, that becomes quite tough. so i'm optimistic that that one can find some sort of accommodation and that right. so it's very clear that this is part of, of, of bare of their bargaining strategy to find some accommodation on north stream to . and let us not forget, you know, we all feel sorry for the ukraine, but you no doubt if it's not been that clear cut, clear sailing between the ukraine and russia and between the ukraine and europe. and it's, it's, it's, it gas and paying an energy bills. anton has been and has been a, has been an issue so, so it's, it's, it's, it's just very,
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very complex indeed. oppo hogan how like, where does russia back down here? is it when they get reassurance, is that ukraine won't join nato, which is a key demand. is it when they withdrawal, their troops are according to the best of the americans? or is it simply when there's a gas and oil diplomacy, political solution presented to them? what's, what's the whale for russia? melissa, clearly complex situation and they're complex actually opinions of mask with can. it's not that we're all kind of marching here and a one a file. there are different opinions inside the crime one and a grubman administration of how to deal with this situation. or president putin, of course, is the ultimate decision maker, but he is more of a moderator between the firm to pick a serious groups of opinions. i hope that there will be, of course there will be lots of military maneuvers. they're happening right now.
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heightened state the military readiness and all that stuff which could result in military escrow asia or a bit won't. and the maneuvers low and the of the situation will kind of calm down, at least in march, april. there will be time to begins, do something on the front of negotiations. and some of this very carpets is not that there is the one kind of issue that changes all the rest. it's a very complex situation and sorry, well we are running out of time, not even a i'm sorry, we are running out of time. i do. and i come to a guest in berlin. i mean to clearly germany's a big part of all of this, where are they hoping this situation lands are they hoping for the ill be over quickly will, can they are they miss with lowell? well, it's not so much a question of timing, the demand from russia to guarantee that nato and the european union won't expand
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any further questions. the core principle of what western organizations stand for. this is the self determination of nations that can decide whether they join an organization or not. so we cannot decide other countries whether they send an application to join an organization or not. politically or practically, ukraine is far from joining ever the european union on a door. this goes without saying, everybody knows it. so i do not really see what russia gets out of this. and if it starts with a made a statement that it is afraid of nato is attacking the russian soil. and in the end, everything, all it gets out is the opening of north street. it sounds a bit absurd to me. i want to thank all our guests. bob fell, going out clean and over,
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and thank you for watching. you can see the program again, any time buy this thing a website out there, a dot com for the discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a jane side story from me. and ron, calling from the whole team. ah ah. and a chilling the debate they a ratio of like people from the american and global story was very powerful on an
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online ad, your voice. the comment section is right here. during our conversation, we are all protected when everyone is protected. it is not by being nationalistic about us, you just look at it in a very different way. say that perspective men and men meeting each other and they don't have any pollution. let me put it clear for you. this dream on al jazeera al jazeera sets the stage. there is a type of animal you could ever imagine, say, explore an abundance of wealth cloth programming. we need that double sort of got it. and sharon, of vaccines designed to inform, motivate, and inspire. why are journalists under attack? because democracy is hunter the truth tellers see the world from a different perspective. on algeria, the corona virus has been indiscriminately selecting its victims. it's devastating effects of plague, every corner of the globe,
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transcending class creed and color. but in britain, a disproportionately high percentage of the fallen have been black or brown skins. the big picture traces the economic disparities and institutional racism that is seen united kingdom fail, it citizens britain's true colors, part one on al jazeera. ah, hello, i'm adrian for going to go home with a summary of the news on al jazeera. russia's foreign minister says that the country doesn't want war with ukraine, but the criminal ones allow its interests to be ignored. so gay level speaking out of the u. s. was that a russian invasion was a distinct possibility usually at the you should receive if you, if it depends on the russian federation. we don't want war. but we also want allow interest to be violated. i can say that the negotiations are over,
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the americans and nato are studying proposals. fail russian and russian troops will conduct joint military trailers drills. next month. russia has been deploying extra troops and fighter jets to baylor bruce in a nation.


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