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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  February 8, 2022 8:30am-9:01am AST

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oh ma'am, ma'am, ma'am, ma'am senegal are the best. no justin, africa, but everywhere we have the best players in the world. and then we really happy because is the 1st time we won the africa cup of nations, we have really, really happy. oh the morning. ah, ah, exactly half past the hour, these are your headlining stories. you as president joe biden has threatened to shut down a russian gas pipeline to germany if moscow invades ukraine. his comments came during a visit by the german chancellor. hola! schultz to washington. if russian rage, that means tanks or troops crossing the on the border of ukraine, again,
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there are no, there will be we, there will be no longer a north stream to we will bring an end with it. what, how will you, how will you do that exactly. since the project and control of the project is within germany's control, we will, i promise you will be able to do well, the russian president vladimir putin met his french counterpart emmanuel, macro in moscow. they said they were confident, a conflict with ukraine could be avoided unless they be speaking of even be the president preferred to come to russia to share opinions about what we should do next. and some of his ideas and proposals about which i think are too early to speak. but i think these ideas could form a basis for our further and joint steps. israel's prime minister has promised to an
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inquiry into reports that the police hacked the phones of dozens of prominent figures and his really newspapers as pegasus software was used to target. the son of the former leader, benjamin netanyahu. and his advisors, protested business leaders, cabinet ministers are also said to have been targeted for haitian prime minister is rejecting calls to step down and is promising elections. opponents renewed calls on monday. the date, marking the official end of the former presidential vanelle mo, use his term. he was assassinated in july. a court in canada has ban truck drivers from sounding their horns at a protest against corona virus. measures demonstrations have been taking place in the capitol ottawa for 11 days now. the mayor jim watson declared a state of emergency on sunday saying the protests were a security threat up next. counting the cost mornings in $37.00. palestine was once a very different place from to day palestine. poster cities became connected to
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the pier in an award winning film al jazeera well, he is historians and idling his accounts that portray early 20th century palestine as a thriving, vibrant age. the region was open, investments were active and moving from one city to another, palestine 1920 on al jazeera. i lose her arm and over the bron him. this is counting the cost on your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. the u. s and his allies have doubled down on the threat of factions. the ukraine stands off. it's a took resorted to of the past decade or so it bought. do such punishment really
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bite. and what to stake? also this week, as tension between russia and the west escalate. over ukraine, huge energy supply in the crosshairs. national says the continent must diversified resources away from moscow. but who could fill the gap? a new terrorist weapon against the us, the war trade organization authorizes china to retaliate against millions worth of an american export. washington says the ruling undermine fame market competition. the a build up of russian troops along ukraine. water has kept moscow's rivals on edge wandering. what let me putin's next move is russia's president says he doesn't intend to invade ukraine. leaders in western capital say he might attack and one of the high prize if he does order troops in the u. k. the european union and the us have previously imposed russian sanctions
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and more are expected if diplomacy fails. stock markets reacted to the g. o political tension and the stand off is raised and fears of a wider economic fought out. us officials have warned of what they called the mother of all sanctions against russia. and bow expected to include measures targeting that image hooton's in a circle. and it's tied to the west. washington and its allies have also been discussing border sanctions against sectors of russia's economy, including banking and energy. the measures meant to hurt the russian economy, but it's fear they'll also affect those of other nations. of the crisis has already pushed the price of oil and gas off, but it goes beyond the energy. the cost of metals used for everything from car making and out of tronics to kitchenware and construction have also increased. so have the prices of wheat and colon on the possibility of a sudden supply crunch. russia and ukraine combined make up
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a quarter of global grain exports. and kia has called on the west to avoid spreading panic. that could put it the economy at risk. when a loss appears to be at stake, to discuss that i'm joined by tatiana oliver, who's the lead emerging markets economist with oxford economics. she's also the founder of emerging all mix and she's joining us from london. very good to have you with us. so what do you make of the possible new sanctions that we've heard about so far from the us and its allies that they have been threatening russia with? well, sometimes the hero, the sanctions can do more damage than the sanctions themselves. and we can see that the 5th of the human infection has already done a lot of damage to the russian markets. however, i think the, what we need to see now is the exact warranty or the deal that the us will low because of going to approve. and then we will see what the damage these
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sanctions could do. for example, the board and you know, what action russia needs to take with whether the sanctions will be imposed if russia affects ukraine or if there are cyber attacks or even information campaigns . so we'll be looking at him to the lord. yeah, and the u. s. has been debasing impose infections, not just of russia, invades ukraine, russia attacks ukraine, but actually over the actions that she already mentioned, the cyber attacks, the sort of, you know, information. the information was the u. s. and the allies have imposed sanctions against russia in the past. and yet we find ourselves here again after the annexation of crime in 2014. how effective have previous sanctions been in deterring russia? well, i wouldn't say they have been very effective. i think that the russian leadership
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is probably has a long term political goals and it's a building explaining strategy and in order to achieve those goals. so i think it's actually kind of has been general case, the manufacturer and not just against russia, but also other countries such as been you swale and iran, glen actually, you know, the sanctions often do not probably bring it as a defect and sometimes they actually inflict a lot of suffering under populations. so the sanction found a tool which has to used very carefully and given that they do affect people as much as they do, governments, could they possibly backfire here and not just affect the russian people, but other than europe to oh yes, i think it's going possible i mean, if the west info impulse, so the harsh sanctions against russia, russia would reply. you know, it's all,
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all come to the sanctions. and it was the case during the conflict of 20142015 when russia actually curved some in but from the european union and other countries which involve sanctions game. so as a result, there was some damage to certain european businesses, you know, greek fellows of features or made the oldness of f, a which is in poland could no longer send their produce to russia. so i guess that some kind of measures along those lines would also be expected. and in europe itself, united in whatever actions taken against russia, better loan, the us and europe on the same page. no, no, we haven't seen my immunity. and there is, 1st of all, that a lot of divisions in europe itself because the various countries within the europe have different degrees of ties. is russia economic times of some countries so much
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stronger? for example, germany says, traditionally build these high dependence on russia, russian hydrocarbon supplies. so yes, there is become, see that the u. s. and a europe out on the same page. and what is that? as well as all the uncertainty doing, you know, to markets, how have they been reacting? what is the sort of, you know, not, i will not say pre war, but the anticipation the uncertainty doing market sentiment. you, as i said, the fear itself is already affecting the market and here. well, 1st of all, the russian markets going to be 2.2 while and in the last few weeks away. but i want to to see here that the last few days, actually this situation has come down. and these happened after russia reacted in a relatively mild fashion to the us reply to its demand. so i think the markets
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have great you to start the pricing out to the very political premium that was built in during the month of january. and that's interest. and yes, please continue. sorry, i was, yes, i was just going to mention that ukrainian markets. you're also reacting with a lot of concern to these developments. so in the way, you know, even though at the moment there is no open conflict. i mean, it's the situation on the border is calm, no one is shooting or killing people, but the markets already reacting as if there was a war. so you cream kind of was also affected by this. panic moved and foreign investors started withdrawing their funds from you bringing markets. all right, tatiana and london, thank you very much for your time. thank you. well, as the talk, sanctions goes louder, europe could find itself squeezed on the energy front. it's believed that measures
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to limit roches ability to export oil and gas would be the most powerful weapon and would hurt the russian economy, but they would cause pain for others. most, most of the europe, russia provides around 30 percent of the european union, natural gas. and if there is a war, you may have to turn to other supplies that us has been working with all the countries on ways to supply fuel to western europe, nations. if that happens, dominic cane supports from berlin. this is the ammo natural gas installation in central russia. one of many such plants is product is pipe to destinations in asia and europe, all of which generates an export revenue of more than $200000000.00 a day for the provide a gas problem. the greatest single market is germany, closely followed by other european countries. cumulatively 128000000 cubic meters of gas flows to the e u. each year, representing around a 3rd of its annual impulse. but what would happen if the ukraine crisis became
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more war and all of this was suddenly switched off. it's going to so i don't have, it could be an interruption of guess. whoever was government should weigh carefully whether they really want that was possible to put europe under pressure would eventually tend to liquid guess some of us talk if liquid gas or l n g is the solution. there are a few of these potential suppliers, most notably the u. s. and the state of qatar, while neither could fill the short full of so much gas, immediately one analyst told me, qatar might be able to provide a more medium and long term solution. the categories indeed did supply europe with a lot more gas in the past. but given the fact that the europeans were not very fond of the way that the contracts were structured, katara tended to asia and now supplies from most of the gas to them rather than the europeans should the be some se reconsideration on the european end. when it comes
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to the contractual elements and their compatibility with european energy law, then that this might actually change the situation. and he's in a medium to long term. from the geopolitical perspective, there are increasingly loud voices in western europe who don't want to be so dependent on russia for their energy supply shit in full. betty lecount assume we have to build a foundations of our sovereignty, which means more independence from russia. when i look at our important domes of oil and gas studies, we are not independent from russia. this won't happen overnight, don't, but you know, he, you leaders have been clear that a russian act of aggression against ukraine would have dire consequences for president putin and his country. it would mean an end to his hopes of switching on the north stream to gas pipeline. depriving him of tens of billions of dollars in revenue, and depriving the e u of hundreds of billions of cubic meters of russian gas. the few in berlin is such a price is worth paying if it can deter moscow from invasion. ministers here don't
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want to arm the ukrainians. they believe the most potent weapon against putin is sanctions. no matter the cost dominant cane al jazeera in the german capital. or to discuss all of that on join now by mike full, with the senior research fellow at oxford institute for energy studies. and he's joining me now from oxford. mister full with thank you for your time. how worried do you think europe is right now about us energy supply? thank you. is where they should, they should be very worried. i think this li, core, lots of europe supply, not just of gas, coal, and oil as well. come from russia. so there's obviously a lot of uncertainty about the event of any sort of conflict still isn't the crane . so what might help close supplies say it really is a key issue as the other in yeah, not even the press and quality assurance has been working on
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a contingency plan. was to of talk going the mean years has ministration has been talking about trying to get more gaster lucas, like natural gas to come to, to europe. and that's, that's limited to the extent that let me so much to go that route and g around the world and that split between and the number of markets, including only asia, europe, south america, really markets. so there isn't much l, a g around the world. the at the moment. well, the u. s. has been trying to find a contingency plan. as you mentioned, washington has tried to persuade europe in the past though to buy its gas, but its found few takers. why is that? well, i mean, i present true. talked about with freedom, gosh for your that was to the i mean the b, b,
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u s l n g producer os acres the way that the contracts are structured with the oxide because they're pretty much free to send their gas at n g o was anywhere in the world and they attended to follow the market. so when it was cold in a sure nation, prices will holler. a lot of it went on in japan, creates our warm china and india. and you know, when in the last few months or last year and part of this year, a lot of it reco amounts of complete europe because the europe in price at the moment so much more. so i think the buyers and sellers like the flexibility, right, the ability to move on g round gives them all right. and what about the north stream pipeline to which there's been a lot of attention on it would bring piped gas from eastern russia to western germany. from under the baltic sea, but is that likely to still go ahead of the current environment?
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an audience might be, i think, clearly as as a promise on the ground in bait, in the crate. and then that was the project to the complete jeopardy. it's probably likely, politically, to start well, there's an actual conflict on an, in the options of that. and so if the cyber rattling them this approach is going to prove no strain to regulate as restarted that process that may not the nation. so the 2nd of this year just goes to europe, a commission for approval that that's really a robust stamp. so it could get delayed as the process takes longer, but ultimately, legally it will, it will get approved then becomes a political decision as to whether to stop it and not, not could those huge litigation surely,
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but damages in the course of sponsor the project, not just the russians and the possible energy crunch that we're talking about. who do you see it hurting more than you were p and nations, which is so reliant on russia for the gas or russia itself, which sells so much of it's the co 5 natural gas to europe and earns revenues from us. well, it's no till the boat, man, i think yeah, russia gets a little revenues from explosive oil and gas. oh. and the, and i was trying to live with the prices last year. so she built up quite a chest of dollars with which to withstand, let's say a short cut off of supplies. so it's got the money certainly to go to that. and that's i think he did it. russia just from did cattail supplies. then i spent 30 to 40 years building up a reputation being
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a reliable supplier. and that's all part of the window. if i, if i could tell supplies and they've been saying your long term conference off the table and it will be disastrous for your mike, forward and oxford. thank you for your time. again, for more than a quarter of a century, the world trade organization has been meant to serve as an arbiter of commerce. but it has rarely succeeded to not shop any winds on the country. it has often got caught in the crossfire when it's tried to find solutions. the u. s. has repeatedly accused the w. t o of siding the bay jing and the dispute between the 2 countries and has demanded its reform. the trade body is yet again anger and b, u. s. it's authorized china to retaliate against $645000000.00 worth of us imports per year. as part of a decade old trade dispute, or the u. s. anti subsidy duties on chinese goods. the amount was much less than
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the $2400000000.00 that china had initially requested. washington said it's impose the tariffs on products, including solar panels, because they were being dumped on the market to help chinese companies do business . as the 2nd time, the w t o has allowed china to retaliate for us anti dumping taxes and 2019 the arbitration. and our paging to add duties on up to $3600000000.00 worth of us imports. that same year, former president donald trump, blocked the appointment of new judges to the organizations applet body. well, the new ruling comes almost a year after a fragile, but arguably, durable trade truth between the us and china. washington in beijing signed a trade packed in 2020, that the mom's china increased as buying of u. s. goods. the chinese government has so far fail to meet those purchase commitments. president joe biden has kept duties on chinese apparel, furniture and other items. the u. s. imposed tower on at least $360000000000.00
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a year in chinese made goods. the w t o has said additional tariffs imposed in 2018 by the us on chinese goods violated international trading rules. separately, the e u has fall the case against china as a w t o photography. in lithuania, just begun with blocking lithuanian import. the route was parked off to little any is decision to allow taiwan, which is seen by the chinese government as part of its territory to open a diplomatic outpost in vilnius, china downgraded its diplomatic relations with the way near the denies ordering the boycott of the nations goods, i'm joined now by henry gal who is the associate professor at the singapore management university. he's also a member of the advisory board of the w t o chairs program. and he's joining us from singapore, mr. gal, very good to have you with us. so how much of a surprise was this decision by the w t o, how much of a when was it for china?
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well, i guess the decision was not really surprising because this is part of a long rang and dispute. they came back 2 years ago and the w body already ruled us the substance is 3 years ago. so the decision basically established the quantity, the quantum of damage or china. but the even get it of us actually was ready decided 3 years ago. so i think this is just a mind trip or china, i wouldn't see this is a big win for china. the u. s. a certainly angered by it, whether they see it as a win or not. and they're saying that this is, you know, the decision reflects erroneous apple. it body interpretations. what do you make of that? well, the us has been complaining about b, w q, just just as system for a long time, especially on to remedies cases where they regard the appellate body is to show
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public body. for example, to be a serious mistake that minds the other countries ability to tech or tiny sustain capitalism and have a long call or be formed. but it puts money, i would agree with us review. i think the appellate body actually has made the right decision. ironically, if you look closely at the appellate body decision 3 years ago, i mention audio, actually, the appellate body, in that case, did a try to re adjust the audio jury for some, probably the body to make it easier for us to have a safeguard. as to have already subsidy ameris against china. so i think the u. s. a complaint, a definite mist directly and you know, the u. s. has been so angry at the w t o in the past that it's actually blocked appointments to the athletic body, which is the dispute settlement cost. how much has that hampered the world trade
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organization and its ability to sol disputes between countries? would you say yes, definitely. i mean, the us a decision to block the appellate body a, another mistake made by the us, the course. ironically, on the one hand, you are seeing that the u. s. has been complaining that, and china is being body. can all kinds of w your was on the other hand, to the end of my you the w 2 us ability to really and off. this was china by removing the appellate body, making the body basically be non existent. so i think the u. s. is kind of a self contradicting if they really want to have you was my actions against trying the w q. you should definitely bring back the appellate body. do you think that that's likely to happen under president joe biden? it hasn't happened so far. it was the former president, donald trump, who just decided to block appointments from the app and the body could be see some progress now. well, everyone have been waiting since the president of barton team to all the so you go,
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but i think those of us in the circle have a barn large being disappointed by the actions of the new body animation. because despite the seeing that the u. s. is back to the us market. last one is the still continue the blockage just we saw the tween for president trump. so i think i've had a boy that would be continue the blockage at least a ball while and kill the get what they want to in the w 2 by the probably the u. s . has not even made it clear, right? know what the one in the w use, so that make solve the problem even more difficult. you're not surprised by the w to a decision later, decision on china. but would you say that it impacts this? you know, a fragile trade truth between the us and china. that we've had some 2020 that is a good point actually. because i personally, even though i was not surprised by the decision. but i think this decision
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providers trying to some expected to get an average in the things that they could use this authorization from the w e q. ready to retaliate against the us as a kind of a bargaining chip with us, especially as the u. s. now is reviewing china's implementation of the phase one, where the most common to us would have re and they're trying to build to implement that plan, grim it to 46 percent. so i think china could use these 2 advantage and maybe these would help what we need trunks or mr. guy, we have just left for the minute left. and i'd like to ask you about lithuania as well. what do you make of the european union taking this case to the w t o over china's actions against lithuania? well, the see? no surprising because the u has been contacting the case for a while. and i would argue that it is a good that the u. s is picking the piece to the w because it's much better than
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simply, you know, trying to go back and forth using diplomatic channels. because the definition of walking, i think china, in the case would have probably 5, the national security exception, just like russia did in the case against your grand. so the case would be interesting to watch. i hope that the w 2 panel, what do you need a basic, what are the conditions you would need to cite the national security exception in the case henry gal and singapore. thank you very much for your time. my pleasure. and that's our show for this week. get in touch with us by tweeting me at mid for autumn and do use the hash tag a j c t c. when you do or drop as an e mail council, the cost at l, just the dot net as i address. but there's more for you on line as i'll just the or dot com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to our page, which has the individual reports, length and 2 episodes for you to catch up on that set for this edition of counting the cost. i'm elizabeth per item from the whole team. thank you for joining us. the
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news on al jazeera is the ah, lou lou lou dictates his ships to democracy's act of his to corporations. control of the message is crucial. be it for public opinion or profit. the listening close examines the vested interests behind the content you consume. on al jazeera, as tenses intensify along the russian crane border u. s. presidential bypass,
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threatened president with the are economic sanctions saying if conflict of hers, it could be the largest invasions for port to canada. romantic talks a few possibilities what we live for moscow to be the latest development on al jazeera. ah. ready hello again, peter, they'll be here in doha. your top stories on al jazeera, the u. s. president joe biden has threatened to shut down a crucial russian gas pipeline to germany if moscow invades ukraine. his comments came as the german chancellor, olaf schultz was in washington. if russia invades that means tanks for troops crossing the border of ukraine again, then there will be we, there will be no longer a nor stream to we will bring an end to.


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