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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  March 4, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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to do business with moscow, dating has repeatedly stated it on the side of peace. but as the war ukraine escalates that diplomatic tight rope is becoming increasingly difficult to walk. so can you al jazeera dating friendly staff at the kids zoom have found themselves with a unique challenge. the director, his colleagues and their families. they have been living on site since this invasion began. so they're looking after $4000.00 animals during the day and then hiding in a shelter at night, cold as well. they are hoping the zoom can be saved despite everything that's going on in ukraine at the moment. oh, all right, the latest developments from ukraine. now russia's taken control of what is europe's largest nuclear plant. a fire at the facility in southeastern ukraine has been put out. international nuclear authorities say it's react as we're not damaged,
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but nato's accused russian forces of shelling the plant. we condemn the parcel, sir, lord, and i will send reports of votes against the new pre po for this because it was those of his war report was over and the is on the board. so reform we're doing all the screws and engage in good faith in the you and human rights counsels voted overwhelmingly in support of investigating alleged russian violations and ukraine caves ambassador to the un hold the moment as his start the message to put in has been clear you are isolated on a global level, and the whole world is against to you. those some russia direction and committing violations against my people should be paying attention. the evidence is going to
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be collected. you're going to be identified and you're going to be held to account. you current says that these 47 bodies have been recovered from the rubble in china here in the wave of russian strikes residential area and the northern city was under heavy shilling on thursday. rescue efforts have been suspended because of russian attacks. officials in mario pole are wanting of a humanitarian catastrophe. as the besieged city in jewels heavy bombardment, there has been heavy fighting on the outskirts of that city which has been encircled. excuse me, the governor says the power has been cut and water and food supplies are running out and rushes continuing to crack down a water considers the spread of false information about its armed forces. parliaments passed legislation which would introduce prison terms of up to 15 years . and people found guilty would also face huge funds that would largely focus on social media, but also unverified information about the forces those,
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the headlines inside stories. next we know what's happening in our region. we know how to get to places that others and on i was thrown here guy by the police on purpose. how does 0 had the time in it full grammy? the go live on the, on the go live, the were another boy that may not be me. 3 is happening. if i was, i said, i'm going on with the way that you tell the story is what can make a difference. the war in ukraine is pushed up the price of all, so it's 10 year high and that russia on the sanctions prices could continue to go higher. so how will the world deal with this energy crisis? this is in size. ah
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hello, welcome to the program and hasn't seen as the russian invasion of ukraine enters its 2nd week, crude oil prices have risen to levels not seen in a decade. russia is the world's 3rd largest oil producer and provider of nearly 40 percent of europe's energy supplies, prompting money to look for alternatives. began to g. consumers are boycotting, rushing crude, collapsing that demand as they shut the country's market. energy markets have largely been sped from the sanctions, western countries placed on russia's financial sector, knowing how important energy is so their own economies. despite the rising prices, opec and other oil producing countries said they are sticking with their plan to gradually increased oil production. meanwhile, nations including the u. s, have agreed to release 60000000 barrels of crude oil reserves. it is how the increase in supply will cub oil prices after russians invasion of ukraine. the
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price of crude is expected to have more than $120.00 a barrel this weekend, and the increase is already causing long queues pumps. in some regions of the world . a u energy mrs. say they want to speed up their transition to clean energy sources. you hook hooker faster. europe can cope in the event that there is a car in the supply of gas or oil from russia. we can do it immediately. however, we will have to look in the medium term or how to build new stocks for next winter by 1st looking at how to diversify our supply. then by replacing our strategic stocks again and using our strategic stocks. but also by generally increasing our imports. houston says for since a frankly from buddhist, we are 4 to 6 percent dependent on russian gas, 30 percent dependent on russian oil and 20 percent dependent on russian uranium. so it's clear that if we want to eliminate this dependency, we will have to accelerate our energy transition heat our homes differently and generate our electricity differently. on the most important, i tend
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a buoyant is our support to ukraine. in this perspective, i expect that dentist as through support, their emergency synchronization of ukraine power to create boot with european creech as soon as possible. i believe that this is say only possibility at current circumstances. ah, well, let's get the thoughts of our guests. now joining us from london is alex sion de la president of energy intelligence and the former editor of petroleum intelligence weekly. and also we have a beyond shell, dropped a specialist on european energy politics. and joining us from washington, ben cane hill. so i've been k, he'll senior fellow at the energy security and climate change program at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with us. so alex and if i
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could start with you, then what sort of implications is all this having for the russian economy? first of all, the longer this goes on, thanks for having the i mean, the impact on the russia already beginning to be felt. as you said in the opening part, the sanction excluded energy the moment which is large budget. but we already know that ordinary russians and very wealthy by the sanctions, but the stock market. so there's no interest in russia. they don't be on shale job, but we mentioned there how dependent so many european countries are on, on russian energy. and there was, there were, there had been quite uneasiness about that before this conflict started. this has
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now force them to rethink things a lot more quickly or has an absolute. i mean, if you look back over the past 2030 years now, idea was that europe, the western europe should go hand in hand to get with russia into the future. we should that by energy from russia, and they would get money from off happy marriage. and that marriage is now broken totally. and we sold like a 180 degree turn by germany last week from long term supporter of importing russian energy. suddenly they just turn around and say, now we're going to build energy in port terminal. they have non, today we're going to move away from this the energy marriage with, with them, with russia. and of course, you know, we have a huge reliance on energy from russia today in western europe. so we cannot, we break that the marriage aren't quite yet, but i think the divorce is clear. and you know, this is going to extend the rate western europe's path towards where you will and
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the g electric vehicles and less dependent, especially on the rest, and then k. oh, how much damage could this due to the world economy? because with the economic sanctions that we've seen so far from the united states and from from their partners in europe, we've seen them kind of pull their punches a bit when it comes to energy because they know how much it's how much it could effect then the economic blowback of this on them potentially so. so how much, what is the impact to this going forward? and if things don't change, could they rethink that strategy of, of not doing anything to upset the energy market to this point. you can expect so really high. this is one of the biggest energy disruption seen since shops of the 70s. and the back up of this course is that mean states, a lot of western economies, which had inflation pretty serious price or not. commodity prices have been rushing for the last 6 months. as a result of its really rapid and commodities for oil,
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natural gas and other products with the market. and i think it's taking government by surprise. it's a big liability. ready for ministration and others, it's a huge economic challenge to do with it. and you know, even before this past week for the war things we're giving it to mention perspective here in washington. the concern is always gasoline prices and how presidents can manage not reality, is that if you're in the white house don't operate options to do prices. and the latest conflict, the war rushes as an entered into with the pan. it's just kind of terminal charged on concert. ready alex schindler, i can turn back to you on this. i put this question to you on earlier. is this going to speed up efforts to diversify energy dependence from a lot of countries? well, i think what we've heard it,
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many or meters would like it to. and they're going to make efforts to do it. i think the one thing to know is the bigger picture here, short term, the guess you're not depends on russia is not possible in short term. but the bigger picture here is a division between europe and russia, and i think i was the previous guest speaker, set a breaking marriage, answer your job to find other alternatives. they're making decisions, force them to do so. so whether they're going to be able to find, i'll turn the gas supplies, or whether they're going to find rethink or new killer staff syndication, some countries or whether they're going to try to speed up the transition to the economy by rushing through renewables and other sources
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the longer term directional travel, but i would 100 percent agree. this is not possible to buy away. so we talk in the short term disruptions. energy no longer have young children. how could this, how bad could this get for you? because history has shown that whenever there's been a, a law spike in oil prices, not long after that, there's been quite a large recession. yeah, i mean, you know, that it's increasing risk that this is going to have an extremely negative out pull out for an economy. and especially for european they called me and if you look at natural gas prices right now, they are in europe. they're trading at equivalent of $300.00 per barrel of oil equivalent versus normal $35.00 to $40.00, right? so we are talking $8910.00 times the normal price in europe. and we also high prices in a separate natural gas. and of course, you know, the market is price,
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you know, these price are going to be where they are now at $300.00. what's the year uncle that you want? i think that is totally unsustainable. this is, is breaking ad the mom down and prices will have to pull back. and, and of course, when you break them on, you basically essentially break the economy. and of course, you know, it's not just natural gas. cold prices are 5 times higher than normal. they increased 50 percent yesterday and not just for the front end, but also for an ad december contract late this year. and so, you know, it's rippling and state cascading through the global economy, and we use so much energy for so many things. then everything will go increasing and cost industrial matthews, i'm moving straight off to, to the increased costs. but all start agricultural products are moving straight up the matter with the highest price ever in no renewal terms or the agriculture product index. a ben cayo. how bad could this get for the u. s. economy,
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the longer these guys on, you mentioned, you know, higher prices at the palms. that's, that's going to affect many americans more, more directly. but the longer with the other problems that the u. s. economy and other economies are facing right now with inflation and trying to get trying to recover from, from, from the long pandemic. the effects to that, how back to this get, the longer this goes on for america. i think inflation is in economy why problem? united states, not just in the sector, it's going to enter, you see the price of food is increased. the cost of everything seems to be going up . i think the number one challenge, the white house energy is a huge part of it. now the consumer prices are increasing around 77 percent of all, most of us have never seen this presentation license. and you know, the old adage about gas prices is that people feel every time they feel the numbers
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pretty physical, some of the inflation feel around. so the white house is really keenly focused on this, it's been a huge challenge for them since the fall. we saw this why don't start to experiment with using the strategic petroleum reserve last november to try to put more on the market market. let's talk over and over again about trying to have dialogue with producers to turn into action. the reality is, now this is the white house, but i think we want to talk about, well, they want to talk about the energy transition. want to talk about pushing that forward. the energy security issues come back in a big way in the past 6 months. and so they're trying to keep their eyes on that rising longer term energy transition issues care so passionately about trying to push those forward. but the reality of the mark is intervene, things of course, it got much worse. and last week, alex, in the lot, we mentioned at the top there how opec for now is going to stick to his current
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policy of not opening up the taps further to try and bring putting the pressure down and increase supply. and thereby, hopefully lower the price is what's the thinking behind that, and what are the, the kind of geopolitical implications as well with, with the biden and ministration is a great question. i mean, i think as many years, i know we had a back this week, i had to have a very quick meeting and they keep production same. now another thing out of the understanding is they really didn't think there's much additional oil mark. and because from there you a lot of the price, it's coming from the premium or, and their experience and a lot of experience people that are leading countries now adding additional barrels and mark is facing
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a crisis is not always the best kind of bring price down to get to that point, to reduce the price the often just not a correlation there, especially in the prices. so 1st of all, there wasn't much points and adding additional barrels. they also point out, you know, russia in the key members of the alliance. that's been magic markets for a number of years now. and they also did not want to get into discussion with russia. other member states about whether it's appropriate to be made in or changing right now, once you start talking about it, it starts getting complicated and they did not want story. so the strategy were quick. continuation of both the already and now get it over with and don't become the story. they do not want to come right now, which is the framework be on shall job. is there a fear as well that by increasing supply right now,
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it could come back to bite them and later on you'll get a lot in the markets and that'll bring oil prices to low to low to, to low. do they like right. i mean, if you look at the brand 2 doors book price today, it trader the highest $1727.00 per barrel. i think sort of these, of course the oil prices teasing wind across the world for consumers everywhere. while, while map gas prices so far, i predominate asian and european consumers. and i think you know, versus historical level demand destruction for oil is starting to buy from $120.00 per $100.00 per barrel. so we were starting to make this fractional demand side with, with current or prices, and i think opec would very much like to avoid abuse and then a bus. they would like to avoid that or, and spike in energy. and that was an, a good culture. prices basically it hits the global conic interest fashion. so i
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think yes, at restaurant. so there you have a very, very important relationship. and so these is very lucky to step in that metal in the whole thing and add more barrels in the middle of the crisis. but you know, if your price continues to 100 or 250, you know, i think equation becomes different because the risk actually really increases significantly. and the best part of this is not really what you want as an oil producer really would like to be. it's more stable and that avoiding these being bused, so that could change the ways. but ben k, well, what's your view on that? i think it's a tough position for us to be there. say the goal is to avoid volatility in the work that is going and the backdrop of this is that their capacity within the group
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is pretty limited. if you take a step back in april 2020, okay. the biggest production cuts responded to the price crash that happened with insurance after $199.00 point, something more market ever since month by month than adding thousands. what they said is that they're hoping to down supply and demand. they don't want to move too quickly and put too many barrels onto the market. do see some potential downside risk issue here is that about it more oil onto the market each month. the wedge and available spare capacity just gotten smaller and smaller and in a tight market like this, a lot of concerns. we've been tories pretty strong demand. people are worried about los therapy costs. so in addition to the question of whether or not i'm helping markets put barrels on, it's kind of a don't situation know, they put more bows under the market and the minister cost me backfire in some ways
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. so my read on the meeting this week is that they needed more time to digest what was happening and the scale of the disruption from russia before they take action. i think another thing is back in their minds is that we could have an iran to happen at some point very soon and that would have a really true impact on balances looking out for the rest of this year. so yeah, i think there was some benefits, see how this unfolds, and then maybe conducting decisions or some point. so yeah, let's put that alex in de la. i mean, ben can, you know, there was talking about if there's a possibility of reviving the 2015 nuclear iran nuclear deal and the potential of bringing iran back into the, into the oil market. what, what effect could that have a major. and so what we are hearing is that we are quite close a deal being agreed between us western powers and bronze. ready
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former president trump walked away from and this would be a significant addition to the market for all we understand that maybe this is not a, a point of discussion. really. they kind of just want to get it as possible not very much at all. and their policies, they don't really talk future but, but a return of iran, at least from a sentiment given the understanding that back to the market. and they can actually do it would potentially counteract some of that sort of thing in the market, which is, which is getting quite good now and i think we have to remember that it's going to take months to bring any reduction back. i think the range hope that they can move out one day over the next couple of months actually do is read everything or experience that sometimes optimistic but all that time. so while the announcement of the deal would be from a central point of view, potentially,
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or something that can counteract higher world prices for a physical supply point of view, i think people should get too excited about this actually changing the question, but we're talking about here because as ben says we're having is not quite enough world, it's sort of this market and the actual barrels of that. ready are getting smaller, smaller beyond shelter, but a lot of people have been saying to the, the war and ukraine may have a limited impact on the, on the global economy right now. because trade links with russia and the rest of the world were limited to begin with with russia accounting for something at 1.5 percent of jo, global g d p o. so with that in mind and what, what potential impact you think that could be both on, on, on rushes, economy and the rest of the world? well, i mean, as long as energy prices are low, we tend to forget that it matters,
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right? it's kind of off the chart out of mine, and we don't know if it's how incredibly important and the g and it's before prices starts to rise significantly. and of course, russia is massively important for the global energy market, especially for european and general ford of noble market. but, but also remember that russia, it's a very our tech support roles and palladium and the, and not the other resource as well. and not to forget, russia is the biggest number one we export in the world. and ukraine is number number 5. and together, russia and ukraine export more beat from the sort of bread basket and black earth and blacks, the region, and they are bigger together then united states and canada together. so, you know, when it's really fun and i really want and the do you want food?
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of course, russia is massively important. just the short comment on, on crude barrels from, from opec plus, you know, what we see here is it's a squeeze that started in the natural gas market with light molecules. and these typically have, have cascade into a tight market for light sweets, crude, it picking brand crews, and v t i and the crude that opec plus typically have. and that russia also, you have is it is medium heavy and power crude. so this is not the biggest shortage, the biggest shortest is in the life and of the specter for lights with crude and eating rally. but of course, now we're losing something like one to 2000000 barrels of her day from russia in terms of crude oil power medium, our crude and, and there. and that is, of course, heightening off that's part of the mark, which of course, the rest of us could help to alleviate that be good, but, but you know,
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right now it's an exporter strike in terms of all true borrows out of all over us. right. seems which see for is not one piece is take the cargo refineries not want to take the oil. so even if in and that is not anxious for exports out the rush in practical terms, we actually see as char reduction or flows of both coal and oil out of western and russian. ben cahill beyond mentioned there, the impact of wheat we when we supply so beyond oil, we look at other commodities like lightweight, which as was said, russia and ukraine, our last supplies of what, what implications, what impact could that have on, on the global markets? i think the only good for russia is often thought of as an export or oil gas works . a lot of metals and function commodities to. so does you pretty much
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i think it adds to the impression that concern receive well, food prices, a lot of places not really use that are quite dependent on friends in ports. so it's going to add to some of that's economic pressure. and just to back up something that i mean, i think when we look at the shortest today we see the media impact with some of these other commodity commodities ra inputs and kind of based materials that are used. factoring lots of other potential price. in fact, we're not going to see today over a couple months. all right, we're going to have to leave it there. thank you. to all 3 of you alexander law, beyond michelle drop and ben k. hill. thanks so much for being on the inside story . and thank you, as always watching, remember, you can see this program again any time just go to a website, just a dot comment for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com
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reports subscribe to you choose dot com. forward slash al jazeera english on counting the cost can energy reserves and china help russia blunt. the impact of massive western sanctions with grain exports from ukraine disrupted, worries mouths about global food security and will you energy sanctions put pressure on the mos military? counting the cost of al jazeera weavers at trying out greasing land is shrinking in some roots long used by wildlife for migration have been blocked by human settlements to deal with all this canyon needs more money for conservation. and with a corona virus pandemic keeping many visitors away revenue from tours. it isn't enough. here at the outset national park, an annual ceremony has been launched the hall pressure than individuals pay $5000.00 to name an elephant. the aim this year is to raise $1000000.00,
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much of it for conservation initiatives, unprompted and uninterrupted discussions. from our london broadcast center on al jazeera can vanelle in the hallway continue, and our coverage of the war in ukraine. russian troops are in control of europe's largest nuclear power plants. ukraine is accusing russia or shelly does appreciate the facility. it comes as russian tags and military vehicles gather outside keys and shelling continues the ukrainian capital, i'll desert arabic. so my house is in a pin in northern que fees,
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just 2 kilometers from the front blind gives you a feel for having right now on the ground so much as you can see.


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