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tv   World Business Report  BBC News  May 5, 2017 5:30am-5:46am BST

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it's the last day of campaigning in the french election before voters choose a new president. the frontrunner, emmanuel macron, has filed a lawsuit over online rumours repeated by marine le pen that he has a secret bank account in the caribbean. president trump has won his first legislative battle, the first stage in repealing barack obama's signature achievement, the affordable care act. the house of representatives has narrowly passed the republicans‘ replacement for obamacare. iraqi forces have opened a new front in their fight to dislodge the islamic state group from the country's second city, mosul. it's a major shift in tactics as the battle has slowed over recent weeks. less than a year after the olympic games, there's been an upsurge of violence in parts of rio de janeiro. the huge cost of the games means the city doesn't have enough money to properly fund its police, and that's led to drug gangs retaking territory.
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now it's time for world business report. to stay or to leave? yep, the big boss of one of the world's largest banks, goldman sachs, tells the bbc about his preparations for a world after brexit — that's coming up in an exclusive interview. and are you ready for round two? it's a biggie for europe, with one of them being knocked out. yep, it's the last day of campaigning before france elects their next president. so we're going to look at how each one's plans to run the eurozone‘s 2nd—biggest economy. welcome to world business report.
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i'm aaron heslehurst. if you don't like waving hands and high energy, i suggest you switch the channel right now. the rest of you who are staying with us, thank you. the chief executive of goldman sachs has warned that london "will stall" because of the risks from the brexit process. lloyd blankfein told the bbc that the company was developing contingency plans to move some of its 6,500 employees out of the capital depending on the outcome of the negotiations. mr blankfein was talking exclusively to our economics editor, kamal ahmed. lots of people he lacked to have their european business concentrated ina single their european business concentrated in a single place. —— elect to have. the uk is the easiest place to concentrate, with the culture and the language and the special
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relationship. we are an example of that. if you cannot benefit from access to the european union from the uk, and nobody knows what those rules and those determinations would be, the risk is that there will be some adjustment that would cause some adjustment that would cause some people to have a smaller footprint in the uk. is written outside the single market? the prime minister has made clear she wants to be less attractive for a firm like yours. i would say that it is our hope that we would be able to conduct our business as close as we can to the way we conducted today. we have to be not in the forecasting business about this, we have to be in the contingency plan business, and that is the rub. because without knowing how things will turn out, we have to plan for a number of contingencies and our hope is that we do not have to implement anything until we know what it is that we have to implement. putt if there is
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no period of time to implement whatever changes are brought about in negotiation, we may have to do things prematurely and we may have to delay range of things as a precaution. right now we are trying to avoid that. which other cities are you looking at? we are not focused on any. we are already resident right now, we have a presence in dublin, frankfurt, france... so you need a clear signal on implementation period after... we would like that. and we realise that this process is not being done to oui’ this process is not being done to our comfort or convenience. you have 7000 people in london. surely that will still be, by far, your biggest office in europe in ten years. strange things happen. what i am as confident about that statement as i am about anything else, given that there are things outside our control. —— buti there are things outside our control. —— but i am. the french presidential election is entering its last days before the final round of voting at the weekend. cadidates marine le pen and emmanuel macron have promised to bring renewal to french politics.
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one key issue throughout the campaign has been the economy. here's a reminder of the competing visions the candidates are trying to sell. emmanuel macron wants spending cuts of 60 billion euros, that's $66 billion, over five years — with a 50 billion euro stimulus package over the same period. he also wants to lower taxes and extend the welfare state. he says he could still keep france's deficit below the eu's limit of 3% of gross domestic product and would cut 50,000 state jobs. marine le pen has been very critical of austerity. she has pledged to cut taxes for households and increase welfare benefits for the working class. she intends to pay for these measures with savings by withdrawing from the euro and reducing immigration. she says that once france is out of the euro she would get its central bank to print more money to bring down the country's debt. the french unemployment rate
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is stubbornly high at 10%. emmanuel macron wants to invest in training and apprenticeships, especially for the young. mr macron wants to introduce flexibility on overtime and the 35—hour working week. marine le pen wants to maintain the 35—hour week and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60, and also make overtime tax—free. lowering the retirement age, that would be nice. joining us now is tomasz michalski, associate professor of economics at hec paris business school. professor, good to see you. thank
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you forjoining us at this early in the morning. if emmanuel macron wins, and it seems like he is going to, will he be good for the french economy? well, of course, there is another stage to be seen, what is going to happen during the parliamentary elections, because macron needs a parliamentary majority. but it looks like if macron's movement, or the republicans, windows, and we will know in a few weeks, then he should be able to implement his vision. —— win these. i think this is a continuation of long overdue reforms ina continuation of long overdue reforms in a favourable environment. the last push, by nicholas sarkozy in 2007, was stopped by the 2008 recession. it is mild supply—side economics coupled with deep structural changes. retraining is
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key, to lower youth unemployment and also keep these changes to keep the economy more aligned with germany. it isa economy more aligned with germany. it is a realistic plan, it would be a great plan for france. what is your economic scenario if marine le pen wins? it is again unclear, because the president needs a parliamentary majority to implement their reforms. and it is not clear that even if she wins, she is going to get a front national majority. if that scenario were to happen, she was very that scenario were to happen, she was very unclear that scenario were to happen, she was very unclear about the proposals, as became clear in the debates. for example, she is not clear about dropping the euro. she was in favour of dropping the euro, then in favour of keeping it, and now she is in favour of introducing
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a second now she is in favour of introducing a second currency now she is in favour of introducing a second currency that would be domestically used for domestic payments, and large corporations would still pay with the euro. i think it is still up in the air. it would basically be some kind of chaotic outcome. however, i do not think that is a reasonable scenario. no, although we do know another political campaigner who did a bit of arc and forth and is now the leader of the free world. —— back and forth. let me ask you this, when one of them wins, we talk about reform, and there is so much reform needed for the french economy, what is the first step? is it the labour market? it will be, ithink, a whole package. you will have to watch what happens in the first few months. it is going to be the supply—side tax reform and the labour reform, they should come hand in hand. and if they have a majority they will pass
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it quickly. i don't think there is going to be a large social movements of strikes and so on. last year's strikes really hurt the french and turned the french opinion against them. it is going to be both tax reform and labour market reform that i hope will bring in more investments, coupled with low eurozone rates, which will give us a nice pomp in france and in the eurozone, and perhaps help in the longer run when the supply—side reforms are going to take place to lower the unemployment to 7% or even 6%, which is going to be a lot. professor, sorry, we have to go. thank you. i have to wrap it up, time is ticking. and look out, boeing and airbus, because the first made—in—china passenger jet is set to fly for the first time this morning. it's called the c919, and it's built by state—owned manufacturer comac.
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it won't be delivered to airlines until at least 2020. it's been in the works for nearly a decade as china tries to rely less on those european and american rivals. the oil price has fallen to a five—month low as investor concerns resurface about a worldwide glut. brent crude dropped by more than $2 on thursday to below $49 a barrel, hitting its lowest level since oil cartel 0pec struck a landmark deal to cut output on 30 november. analysts said investors were worried that oil nations would fail to ease supply fears at a meeting later in may. i'll be back later with james to look at papers from around the world. there has been a substantial swing from labour to the conservatives in early results from yesterday's local elections. the tories have made significant gains in england and wales. counting doesn't start in scotland until later.
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the government is set to publish draft plans to tackle air pollution following a legal battle with environmental campaigners. the measure are expected to contain a scheme to encourage drivers of older diesels to scrap their cars. 0ur environment analyst roger harrabin reports. breathing polluted air can harm people's health throughout their lives. the government is being forced by the courts to clean it up. dirty diesel vehicles are mostly to blame, but many drivers ought them thinking they would be better for the climate, so ministers are likely to pay drivers to scrap most polluting vehicles. —— drivers bought them. local councils will have the power to tax dirty vehicles. road humps may come under the spotlight. the government says they increase pollution by encouraging drivers to accelerate and break, but road humps also save children's lives, so that would be controversial. —— and brake. either
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way, ministers need a credible plan. we need a national network of clean air zones which takes the dirtiest ca rs air zones which takes the dirtiest cars and vehicles off the most polluted roads, but we shouldn't vilify diesel drivers. we need a range of measures to help people switch to cleaner forms of transport. it is time the prime minister stands up to the car industry, which got us into this mess in the first place, and begins protecting people ‘s health. opposition parties will be ready to pounce if they think the plan is are not tough enough to solve the problem. —— plans. and coming up at 6:00 on breakfast, charlie stayt and sally nugent will have more on the night's local elections as well as all the day's news, business and sport — including why children from disadvantaged backgrounds have the odds loaded against them when applying for grammar school places. all of that coming up in breakfast injust over 15 minutes all of that coming up in breakfast in just over 15 minutes time. —— all of that coming up in breakfast injust over 15 minutes time. —— in brea kfast. you are watching bbc news. the
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headlines: it is the final day of campaigning in the french election before voters choose a new president on sunday. the front—runner, emmanuel macron, has filed a lawsuit over online rumours repeated by his rival marine le pen, that he has a secret bank account in the caribbean. president trump has won his first legislative battle, the first stage and repealing barack obama's signature achievement, the affordable care act. the house of representatives narrowly passed the replacement obamacare. iraqi forces have opened a new front in their fight to dislodge islamic state from the country's second city, mosul. it isa the country's second city, mosul. it is a major shift in tactics as the battle has slowed in recent weeks. now it is time for our news review. le figaro leads with the french presidential election reporting emmanuel macron is the frontrunner, declaring him the winner
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in his final debate with rival marine le pen. the irish times reports us president donald trump has scored his first legislative victory after the house of representatives voted to replace the affordable care act, more widely known as obamacare. the new york times asks did uk tabloid newspapers help in persuading the british public to vote brexit? the paper says as the uk prepares to cut ties with europe many uk politicians are courting the tabloids out of fear they'll turn against them. the south china morning post says a war of words has escalated between north korea and china. the row, the paper says has been prompted by beijing working more

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