tv Election 2017 BBC News June 9, 2017 9:00pm-10:01pm BST
it's nine o‘clock and we're at westminster, where theresa may is putting together a new minority government, after a disastrous night for the conservatives in the general election. i have just been to see her majesty the queen and i will now form a government. a government that can provide certainty and to lead britain forward at this critical time for our country. the election that was never meant to happen resulted in a dramatic reversal for the conservatives to one over the 318 seats asjeremy corbyn‘s labour made gains. mrs may has apologised to her colleagues who've lost their seats, and now the party will have to depend on the support of the democratic unionists to govern. in the days and weeks ahead, it is the union that will be to the forefront of our minds, the union is our guiding star. key posts in the cabinet are announced, with no change at the top.
borisjohnson remains foreign secretary, amber rudd home secretary, and philip hammond stays as chancellor. it was a great turnout for labour, who won 40% of the popular vote, and jeremy corbyn insisted he could lead a minority government. we are ready to do everything we can to put our programme into operation. there isn't a parliamentary majority for anybody at the present time. the party that has lost in this election is the conservative party. and on the losing side were the liberal democrats, the snp, who lost a third of their seats, and ukip, whose leader paul nuttall resigned. the election was called to strengthen the prime minister's hand over brexit — so where does this leave the negotiations now? we'll bring you more on that and all the latest from downing street on this most unexpected of election results. to ta ke
to take you straight over to kensington. the final seed has been declared and it looks like a labour victory. thank you to my incredible family who supported me all the way. thanks, of course, for stealing some tory votes and letting me through. clearly, this election was not all about brexit, not around the country and not in this constituency. the people of kensington have spoken and they have voted for someone they trust and who will give them a voice. they know i care and will speak out for them as i have for the
last 11 years. i will challenge the council tojoin us last 11 years. i will challenge the council to join us in last 11 years. i will challenge the council tojoin us in the 21st—century, i will continue to work with the gla to make our air cleaner, reduce traffic, make our streets safer and address our appalling housing crisis. i will ta ke appalling housing crisis. i will take kensington‘s issues and problems to parliament to improve the appalling and unforgivable inequalities here in kensington. this constituency is a microcosm of everything that is wrong in this country everything that is wrong in this cou ntry after everything that is wrong in this country after seven years of incompetent and uncaring coalition and tory go —— government. i will do everything in my power to make one kensington an example of the finest qualities of common humanity, mutual respect for everyone and social justice to create a thoughtful, kind, cooperative and tolerant society where we can all prosper and thrive. a victory speech there is at
the final seed to be declared in this thread is a beating general election. they had had three recou nts election. they had had three recounts and it was between labour and the conservatives. they finally came toa and the conservatives. they finally came to a result with emma winning with 20 votes. they were counting through the night last night, they stopped doing that at six in the morning because everybody was knackered, they came back later in the day and they finally at nine o'clock got the result. our bbc london political editor is there, just 20 votes in it. what a significant victory for the labour party. absolutely. this will be so
prized and it will be felt, the highest levels of the labour party. jeremy corbyn and those around him will be delighted. this was a seat where we see it as a posh and wealthy seat, it is a seed which has got areas and pockets of poverty and inequality. it was around those areas of inequality and opportunity that the labour candidate, a counsellor here for more than a decade had campaigned but more than anything else, she had focused on brexit because on this metropolitan area, with a larger population and larger europhile population, was the existing mp, victoria borwick. victoria borwick was a former deputy mayor to borisjohnson victoria borwick was a former deputy mayor to boris johnson and victoria borwick was a former deputy mayor to borisjohnson and a counsellor here. it is another one of perhaps the most surprising
demonstrations of how londoners have taken against notjust the decision to call this election, but to call an election and make it about brexit. from battersea to barnet, there have been huge swings to labour and they have one for seats from the conservatives and the conservatives lost to further seats to the liberal democrats. it is fascinating, isn't it? i was at the wandsworth council last night. the remains voted go to the liberal democrats, that was a show of force. both remain votes, 75% voting remain, went to labour. was that on the cards? where you seeing that potentially in the run—up to this election? i think that is simply a
demonstration of tactical demonstrations. who is the best recipient of our pro—remain sentiment. battersea, they knew it would be a real challenge. she slipped under the radar, it has to be said. here she was as a tory mp ina be said. here she was as a tory mp in a seat with the highest remain vote. 78, 70 6% in the referendum, she knew it was going to be trouble. for the reasons you give, she like other conservatives were telling us and they were telling people on the doorstep and hearing people back on the doorstep that we need to move on. that was a decision that has been made. let's focus on the negotiations and the deal we need to strike in the future. it is clear that londoners have said in huge
numbers, no! you don't get away with that that easily. it is not that that that easily. it is not that that has happened injust that that easily. it is not that that has happened in just one or two seats, it has happened uniformly and you can take a seat like chipping on it, she didn't lose, but she had a 7000 majority going into yesterday, she won by about 326. it has been uniform across london. as you say, it did not go to the liberal democrats, they didn't make that decision. the otherfactor democrats, they didn't make that decision. the other factor related to that was ukip. i don't think and i think you have seenjeremy vine's analysis of london says, i don't think many or as many previous ukip voters had gone to the conservatives in london as they have elsewhere. somehow, it is being said that people were using the conservatives asa people were using the conservatives as a gateway, or it ukip as a
gateway to the conservatives. that is an interesting thing, that hasn't happened. more analysis needs to be done. indeed. the political scientists will be scratching their heads for the next weeks and months. good to see you, tim. just to remind you, victoria borwick of the conservatives, she was the incumbent, lost the seat byjust 20 votes to anna dent coad of labour. what a night it has been. labour picked up an extra 29 seats. in the end, the conservatives had a vote share of 42.4% with labour at a0%. 40% is normally the kind of figured that wins elections, that is how high the turnout was last night.
ukip supporters, we have been discussing, that has collapsed. they lost 10% of their vote and the snp lost 10% of their vote and the snp lost 21. our first report is from our political editor, laura kuenssberg on the results, this report does contain flash photography. is this strong and stable, prime minister? she who dares doesn't always win. the most votes, the most seats, but under this stinging glare, no iron gates nor police protection can shield theresa may from the accusation she looks a political loser. the trappings of power, the visit to the palace, help from northern irish mps mean she can gather enough support to stay on. but having believed herself to be on the brink of a sizeable majority, going backwards seems like defeat. i have just been to see her majesty the queen
and i will now form a government. a government that can provide certainty and to lead britain forward at this critical time for our country. this government will guide the country through the crucial brexit talks that begin in just ten days. not a single mention of the result. what the country needs more than ever is certainty and having secured the largest number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the general election, it is clear that only the conservative and unionist party has the legitimacy and ability to provide that certainty by commanding a majority in the house of commons. this will allow us to come together as a country and channel our energies towards a successful brexit deal that works for everyone in this country, securing a new partnership with the eu which guarantees our long—term prosperity. that's what people
voted for last june. that's what we will deliver. now, let's get to work. so theresa may walks back into number ten still prime minister but damaged, diminished, a smallerfigure. thank you very much! jeremy corbyn is not the victor. labour lost as badly as they did in 2010. but he looks it. behind by more than 60 seats, but so much further on than anyone had expected. many young voters' dreams, the tories‘ nightmare. incredible result for the labour party because people voted for hope. young people and old people all came together yesterday. very high turnout, huge increase in the labour vote and they did it because they want to see things done differently and they want hope in their lives. coffee for tory
staffers this morning instead of celebratory champagne. the loss of so many seats burst their balloons. are you stepping down, mrs may? traditional election rules showed few clues to theresa may's retreat. boris, does your party need a new leader? should it be you? by morning, words in the wind of ministers who might think of their own manoeuvres. because what was surprise at the start... and what we're saying is the conservatives are the largest party. note that they don't have an overall majority at this stage. ..gradually, seat after seat, was glorious shock for labour. loss after loss for the conservatives. no obvious pattern or geography to start with. but a hung parliament. # we'll keep the red flag flying here...# with no overall winner
becoming clear. we cannot see any way at all that the conservatives can get to the 326 mark and we think it's pretty clear that there is going to be a hung parliament. was he grabbing a victory of sorts? well, over the sceptics in his party... politics isn't going back into the box where it was before. what had seemed her unassailable lead at the startjust melted away. personal as well as political loss written all over her face. as we ran this campaign, we set out to consider the issues that are the key priorities for the british people. the tories care about winning. it wasn't long for the first call for her to go. she's a very talented woman and she doesn't shy from difficult decisions,
but she now has to obviously consider her position. but no others publiclyjoined. discipline perhaps? or some cheerfrom tories‘ big wins in scotland, a separate campaign fought with 13 seats won, levels of support not seen for years. the tories and labour in scotland dragged the snp down from their high point. the bubble pricked even for alex salmond. other parties took heavy fire. the lib dems adding seats but losing their biggest household name, perhaps loved and loathed. nuttall, paul andrew, ukip. .. and in reverse, another ukip leader took his leave. no party though can govern alone. meet the ten—strong democratic unionist party, northern irish mps who will prop theresa may up. the prime minister has spoken with me this morning and we will enter discussions with the conservatives
to explore how it may be possible to bring stability to our nation. others, though, calling for her to go. we will work with others if it is at all possible to keep the tories out of government. she put her party before her country, she has been found out. she should be ashamed. it's an act the westminster circus did not expect. i think labour mps have been shocked by how well we've done. and lot of them will recognise jeremy's here and will take us into the next election and they will start to work with him. i think we've witnessed a political earthquake and i am going to be the first or second or third person to say that jeremy has had a character explosion. you must accept, though, that a hung parliament makes the government less stable, less strong. i accept this isn't the result we wanted. it's not a great result. i'm not here sugar—coating this view. i'm telling you that of the options once the people have decided at the ballot box, this is the clear one that gives
the country certainty. but only late this afternoon did the prime minister acknowledge that anything had gone wrong. i had wanted to achieve a larger majority, but that was not the result that we secured and i'm sorry for all those candidates and hard—working party workers who weren't successful. she won more votes, more seats, she keeps this address, but her gamble failed. the electorate can damn with faint praise. we have all the results finally fully general election, 2017. they were, the conservatives, 318, labour 262, the snp lost 21, liberal democrats up to 12, the dup on ten, other parties on 13. that 318 below the required figure for a majority.
they now have two former government, a minority government, with one of the others and that is likely to be the others and that is likely to be the dup. my colleague ros atkins has been at downing street all day. ros, what's been happening? it has been very busy all day, clive. a day of drama and as we saw in the report earlier that the prime minister stepped out onto a spot just behind be here and she said she was creating this new government in order to provide the country with certainty. let's talk with ben wright about that particular word. he isjoining me here in downing street. you can think of any other word apart from certainty to describe it. this is to be looked up from the board and seen as very
dull, british politics. that is completely broken down in the last few years. this is further evidence of that. another hung parliament in seven years, eight referendum that has torn the country and pass. this feels pretty hollow from theresa may. her statement here was fascinating, there was no acknowledgement of her effectively losing this election with the majority that she was going into it with has disappeared. now she will have two form almost a day by day alliance with the northern ireland party the dup just to get government business done. it will be precarious and it will be unstable and it will beam meaning that a lot of things she wanted to get done something not possible. there will be no way to get the numbers in the commons to get the numbers in the commons to get it through. as the sun was coming up here in london and downing street started being flooded with lovely morning light, there was lots
of speculation that perhaps the primers do with step out and resign. she has taken a gamble, it has backfired, she promised stability. we have not got that at the moment. why hasn't she resigned? how has she been able to sustain her position within the tory party? she felt a clear sense of duty to stay where she was and to provide stability, rather than to let this spiral into some sort of chaos. she may want that... crucially, she would have taken soundings from the tory mps and hercabinet and taken soundings from the tory mps and her cabinet and that will be the message that she will have got. i was texting tory mps at first light saying that this was a complete', that they largely blamed theresa may, but who else can lead us? bass track complete disaster. i don't think there was any appetite to add to the disaster and mess of this. brexit negotiations are in the diary
to begin in ten days' time. that is the truth. theresa may triggered the article 50 process to months ago. it can't be stopped or extended unless the hold of the eu agreed to it. the view within government is that this isa view within government is that this is a political catastrophe for theresa may, no question, but the best thing is that she stays put and tries to steady the ship and begin that brexit process. i must say, there is a high expectation that she may not be here for many more months. thank you. a date for all of oui’ months. thank you. a date for all of ourdiaries,june months. thank you. a date for all of our diaries, june the 19th. that is when the brexit negotiations are due to start, monday week. if they do, the work needs to be speeding because the european union has made it very clear that whatever uncertainty or stability we have in oui’ uncertainty or stability we have in our domestic politics, that will have no impact at all on the final deadline that has been set in 2019. the clock is ticking, two years to
go. many thanks. let's talk to nicola blackwood who lost her previous seat. oxford and west abington to the liberal democrat candidate, layla moran with an almost 15% swing in the vote. what do you think went wrong? what do you think went wrong7m what do you think went wrong? it is perfectly clear that the voters wa nted perfectly clear that the voters wanted to ensure that we heard their voice loud and clear at this election, no political party was a clear winner, but the youth vote was the winner. they made sure that their voice was not going to be ignored at this election and what is also clear is that despite lots of political commentary to the contrary, the divisions which had emerged through the referendum campaign had not been cleansed and what we still see is a very clear remain brexit divide, certainly in my constituency. that came out very
clearly in the result but we had in oxford west and abingdon last night. do you blame theresa may and the party at westminster for that? in the sense that they seem to give the impression that they were ok with a ha rd impression that they were ok with a hard brexit and perhaps not taking into account the 48% who didn't vote for leaving the european union. there are problems with the national campaign that didn't reach out across the different sections of the country and we are going to have to look forward now and be clear about the fact that we do have divisions in the country, whether it be between remainders and exit voters, the youth vote, older voters, metropolitan voters and traditional voters. we will have to think very carefully about how we want to meet that challenge as a nation and how oui’ that challenge as a nation and how our political leaders are going to address it because so far, voters have not found the answer in any of
oui’ have not found the answer in any of our political parties or any of our political leaders and we need somebody to step up and answer that for us as a nation. i don't want the britain that is as divided as this andi britain that is as divided as this and i do not want to have political campaign to as angry and divisive as we have had over the last couple of yea rs. we have had over the last couple of years. i knew angry with theresa may for calling this election?” years. i knew angry with theresa may for calling this election? i am not angry with her. i believe a prime minister needs to be elected and have a mandate. she did the right thing, but i think that the election narrowed the vote, had narrowed the appeal of the party and actually we area appeal of the party and actually we are a one nation party that can appeal across demographics and it is right that we should be able to unify the country in a way that we didn't manage to do in this election. i supported theresa may to become the prime minister, i did it because i believed that she is able to do that. over the period that she was prime minister, up until the election campaign, she absolutely
met those expectations. with high popularity across all vote demographics. it is possible that she will be able to come out the other side of this as prime minister in some really challenging times through brexit negotiations, security challenges that we face and address those divisions in this country. she is going to have to do that by healing the divisions in the country and not by having divisive campaigns. thank you very much for joining us. let's recap the day's events, the british prime minister is in a wea ker british prime minister is in a weaker position after a snap election. she said talks in britain leaving the european union with begin on time in ten daystime. good evening, you have seen showers
fading away, but only because the thickening cloud is coming in from the atlantic. a good wedge of cloud here wrapping around an area of low pressure. that is pushing its way in from the west and bringing in with it at rates of rain. that weather arriving in the south—west of england and wales before midnight. it is pushing its light towards the north—west of england and south—west scotland. north, further south, north—west of england and south—west scotland. north, furthersouth, it shall remain fine and dry. lowest temperatures are around eight or 9 degrees in scotland, otherwise a warm night ahead. 13 or 1a degrees. heading into saturday morning, this rain is arriving. spots of rain for the south—west of england, a dry start across the midlands, east anglia, probably lincolnshire, the south—east of england. warm here. a different story from wales and north—east england. the rain soon
clearing away from northern ireland, pushing its way further into scotland, but still a dry start here in the north—east of the country. through the morning into the afternoon, that wet weather will push its way into scotland and peter out. sunshine will break out across northern ireland, the rain gets stuck across northern england across wales and moves its way into the south—west. much of the midlands should be dry. sunny skies in east anglia, quite a warm and humid day year, brightening up and south—west scotla nd year, brightening up and south—west scotland and northern ireland. temperatures getting a boost. a big area of low pressure sits to the west, to do with the second half of the weekend. it slides towards the south—east of east anglia and it is not a sunny here on sunday. the cloud will increase and we will see rain on that weather front as it struggles to clear away. brighter skies following towards the west and north where we will see sunshine and showers. in scotland, rather frequent and heavy. humid in the
south—east, top temperatures not quite as high. fresh air comes in on monday, a breezy day on monday. temperatures will be lower, perhaps a disappointing 15 or 16 degrees in the north where we are more likely to catch some showers. high pressure built in, affecting southern parts of the uk. weak weather fronts brushing the far north and the north—west. theresa may says she'll lead a minority government, despite the general election ending in a hung parliament. so let's recap on the results of the election that was never meant to happen. the conservatives have 318 seats, all have been declared, eight short ofa all have been declared, eight short of a majority. labour has 262, and the snp 35, with the liberal democrats 12 and the dup ten.labour gained 30 seats and far
from increasing their majority as many predicted, the conservatives actually lost 13 seats. the snp shed 21. well, speaking outside number 10, theresa may said she intended to form a government with northern ireland's democratic unionist party, to provide "certainty" and deliver brexit. having secured the largest number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the general election, it is clear that only the conservative and unionist party has the legitimacy and ability to provide that certainty by commanding a majority in the house of commons. the fallout from last night's election, is slowly beginning to emerge. let's take a look at the latest developments tonight. and theresa may has apologised to conservatives who lost their seats, insisting she won't resign, and her focus remains on forming a government, ahead of brexit talks beginning in ten just ten days. tonight, she's released details of her cabinet, with the top five posts staying unchanged, including the chancellor
philip hammond, foreign secretary boris johnson and home secretary amber rudd, who onlyjust held onto her seat by 346 votes. mrs may now needs the support of northern ireland's democratic unionists, who have ten seats at westminster. their leader, arlene foster, says she'll begin talks with the prime minister, but there's speculation about what the dup might demand in exchange for its support. the labour leaderjeremy corbyn has exceeded all expectations — gaining 29 seats and winning 40% of the vote. that is the biggest increase in the share of the vote by a labour leader since clement attlee in 19115. jeremy corbyn says labour is ready to form a minority government. we are ready to do everything we can do put our programme into operation. there isn't a parliamentary majority for anybody at the present time. the party who has lost in this election is the conservative party. the liberal democrats now have 12 seats — up four on their total in 2015.
but their former leader, nick clegg, lost his seat in sheffield hallam. it was a bad night for nicola sturgeon and the governing scottish national party, which lost 21 mp5, including the seat held by the former leader, alex salmond. the conservatives gained 12 seats, their best result in scotland since 1983. the leader of the uk independence party, paul nuttall, is standing down with immediate effect. ukip failed to win any seats in parliament, and its share of the vote collapsed. finally, a surge in the youth vote may have proved crucial tojeremy corbyn's gains last night. young voter turnout has been estimated at 72% — overall turnout was 69%, the biggest since 1997. now let's get a roundup of the day's other news with martine croxall. president trump says he's100% willing to testify under oath to give his side of his leaked conversations with james comey, the former fbi director
he sacked last month. mr trump has rejected mr comey‘s assertions that he had urged him to drop investigations into his presidential campaign's links with russia and his former national security adviser, michael flynn. at a white house press briefing the president was challenged by a reporter on the issue. he did say under oath that you told him, you said you hoped the flynn investigation... i did not say that. he lied about that? i did not say that. did he ask you... and there will be nothing wrong if i did say it, according to what i have read today but i did not say that. did he ask the pledge of loyalty from you? he did not. he said those things under oath, would you be willing to speak under oath? 10096. i hardly
know the man, i will hardly say i wa nt know the man, i will hardly say i want you to pledge allegiance. who would ask a man to pledge allegiance under oath? would ask a man to pledge allegiance underoath? i would ask a man to pledge allegiance under oath? i hardly know the man. it doesn't make sense. under oath? i hardly know the man. it doesn't make senselj under oath? i hardly know the man. it doesn't make sense. i did not say that or the other. if robert muller wanted to speak to you... i would be glad to tell them what ijust told you. our washington correspondent, laura bicker, was at the white house rose garden for that press conference. she gave me this assessment of the difference in the account of events between mr comey and president trump's. he says that at no point did he ask the former fbi directorjames comey to let the investigation into michael flynn, his former national security adviser, the one who had to leave because his contacts with the russian ambassador we disclosed and because he was under investigation. he said he did not askjames comey to let that investigation go and he said he is prepared to go under oath and testified that. what we're hearing is two very different
accou nts hearing is two very different a ccou nts of hearing is two very different accounts of the conversation. for james comey, he wrote notes straight after the dinner and he said he took those notes because he did not trust the president not to lie about it in the president not to lie about it in the future. and there, at the podium a few moments ago, you heard from the president, he has another version and says james comey is not telling the truth. it is going to come up to the american public which side and which i can't do they believe. laura bicker in washington. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. the united nations peacekeeping mission in mali says that three of its troops have been killed and eight wounded in kidal in the north of the country. the peacekeeping mission in mali is known as the most dangerous in the world and the mission's camp came under heavy fire. a jihadist group linked to al qaeda says it carried out the attack. the saudi football federation has apologised after its national team didn't take part a minute's silence for the victims of the london attacks.
some saudi players milled around while their australian opponents stood in silence before their world cup qualifier in adelaide. the saudi football governing body issued an "unreserved" apology and said it "deeply" regretted the episode. two people killed in the attacks were australian. the leader of the spanish region of catalonia has called an independence referendum for october the 1st, and with the central government in madrid views as illegal. voters will be asked if they want the region to be asked if they want the region to be an independent republic. catalonia has its own distinct culture and a different language from the rest of the country but opinion polls suggest voters would narrowly reject independence. austria has introduced a law banning islamic full face veils in public from october and anyone breaking it faces a fine of up to $160. the new legislation includes measures against distributing extremist islamist literature and obliges
asylu m islamist literature and obliges asylum seekers to undergo a one year long integration course. the far right freedom party is riding high in the polls in the run—up to elections in mid—october. more on the british election result, here's clive... many thanks. welcome back to westminster, where the british prime minister, theresa may, is forming a minority government. it will be as she enters brexit negotiations in a much weaker position than before her party suffered significant losses in thursday's snap election. european politicians have expressed concern that the result could increase the turmoil over brexit. the president of the european council donald tusk congratulated mrs may on her re—appointment, but said the two—year withdrawal period left no time to lose. the president of the european commission, jean—claude juncker, said he hoped there would be no further delay to the negotiations. all elections are important, not only in the so—called big member
states. this was of particular importance and i strongly hope that britain will stay ready to open negotiations and as far as the commission is concerned, we can open negotiations tomorrow morning at half past nine so we are waiting for visitors coming from london and i hope that we will not experience a further delay in the conclusion of these negotiations and first we have to agree on the default areas and we have to envisage the architecture of oui’ have to envisage the architecture of our future relations. i have to envisage the architecture of ourfuture relations. i hope that the result of the elections will have no major impact on the negotiations. we are desperately waiting for them. well, earlier today our europe correspondent, kevin connolly, sent this update. in brussels the brexit process was a lwa ys in brussels the brexit process was always viewed with a degree of mystification and frustration and
the outcome of the election has served another layer of puzzlement. the view from brussels is the uk has already set the clock running on its departure from the european union. u nless departure from the european union. unless it is quite a bit of constitutional upheaval, that is going to happen in march of 2019. so, the message from officials here is you can change the date on which you start negotiating and that doesn't have to be the 19th ofjune, as planned, that isjust doesn't have to be the 19th ofjune, as planned, that is just a doesn't have to be the 19th ofjune, as planned, that isjust a date in your diary, but you cannot change the date when you leave, that is set in stone. the british are seen as having set the clock and then embarked on election which always threatened the possibility of derailing that negotiating timetable and the results of the question over whether the narrowness of the british election outcome will influence the sort of brexit deal that theresa may will seek, but she have to listen to people who want are softer rather than harder brexit
and hanging over everything, the slightly more nebulous issue of whether theresa may's authority has been damaged. in the end, whatever deal is struck, she is going to have to sell. the bottom line is it was a lwa ys to sell. the bottom line is it was always expected that the brexit talks would be difficult and delicate and now they will be more difficult and more delicate still. kevin connolly in brussels. still, theresa may's convinced she can form a government, with help from conservative ‘friends and allies,‘ as she calls them, the dup. my colleague christian fraser looks at the workings of hung parliaments, and how the conservatives might now govern. we don't have as much experience with hung parliaments in the uk as they do on the continent, but we have had one as recently as 2010. you will recall that after five frantic days of negotiation, david cameron went into coalition with nick clegg's liberal democrats — a government that lasted the full five—year term. it's unlikely we're going to get a coalition this time. but the conservatives can still govern, and here's why.
326 is the magic number. it's an absolute majority, it's just over half of the constituencies in the uk. the conservatives are eight short. in fact, the number is usually a bit less than this because sinn fein don't take their seats and the speaker doesn't vote. nonetheless, the conservatives can have a go at it because they have the most seats in parliament. and that's what theresa may's doing right now. she's taking initiative. she went off to see the queen just after lunchtime today because she thinks she can form a government. what she has to ensure is that by the time they come to the queen's speech, there's a majority of mps in parliament that will support her platform. or to put it another way, she has to ensure there is a majority of mps that aren't going to vote against it. so let's take a look at the numbers. what i'm going to do is i'm going to build a left—leaning alliance. not a coalition, but parties on the left that might supportjeremy corbyn. there is 261 for labour.
we put in the snp, the liberal democrats. let's put in plaid cymru, and also the one green mp. and you'll see that they're short of the magic number, and actually shorter than the conservatives' number on 313. so they're five short of where the conservatives are. but then look what happens to the conservatives if you put the dup with them. the biggest party in the northern ireland assembly, ten seats, and they're over that magic number. so they have potentially 328 mp5. what kind of relationship with this be with the dup? well, there are three options, potentially. a formal coalition, or they could have a much more informal relationship where they vote on a vote—by—vote basis. or they could have what we call "confidence and supply", whereby the dup agree to vote with the government on key issues like a budget, or a vote that might bring down the government, in return for a price. the one thing to say, though, is that these two parties do have long—standing connections, and the dup has voted with the conservatives many times before.
a couple of important dates for you before we finish. this one — june 13th. that is when the new parliament meets. after that through the week new mps will be sworn in. this is the date by which theresa may has to be confident that she's got that majority of mps — a week on monday, june 19th. incidentally, what happens if after that point, after the queen's speech, there is a leadership contest, or theresa may decides to stand aside? well, the conservatives would still remain in power while any leadership contest follows. there were shot in canterbury and it was as a surprise there were shot in canterbury and it was as a surprise to many politicians, it is that younger voters made a big impact.
rosemary claire duffield is duly elected... it was a result that shocked even the labour party themselves and after more than a century of electing tory mps, canterbury turned red. this is a big shock, we were hoping we would get a victory here but the majority has a lwa ys victory here but the majority has always been about nine or 10,000 so this is actual history because 106 yea rs of this is actual history because 106 years of tories in the seat, we did not think we could ever get it. sir julian brazier out of the job he not think we could ever get it. sir julian brazier out of thejob he has had for three decades, he believes young voters made the difference.” think the biggest factor as we have the largest concentration of stu d e nts the largest concentration of students in the country here and a very strong feeling among them about the referendum issue. when a pleasa ntly voters the referendum issue. when a pleasantly voters registered here this year, many of them students, like sean. i think it shows how the country is still divided. but i do think it shows that, gradually,
there is a transition, young people are waking up to the realities of the world. labour's traditional strength on the nhs also helped here, where concerns about the hospital are high. we wanted somebody to stand up in parliament and demand that we have this properly funded service here in east kent. in brighton and have, where internal splits have dogged labour, there was unity in victory. they thought it would be close but labour bid the city minister simon kirby by almost 10,000 votes. we are delighted we have managed to sell a message of hope over fear, we have managed to sell a message of policies of personality and we managed to show to the public that we have a party that is united and a leadership that has vision to take the country forward. poll of polls by peter kyle, who was critical of that leadership, also had a big win,
a majority of 18,000, the biggest the party has ever had in the south—east. the party has ever had in the south-east. labour has had an emphatic six, winning seats it has not won for 100 years underjeremy corbyn. where you wrong? when you see what is happening going forward, the country has done something really quite unusual today, that we we re really quite unusual today, that we were not expecting yesterday. let us see how the dust settles, but the country is telling us and what it expects from us as a party but also asa expects from us as a party but also as a parliament going forward because we have to grapple with some really incredible big issues. labour is still far short of the number of seats it used to have the south—east when it was last in power and the challenge for the party is going to be building on this dramatic su ccesses be building on this dramatic successes and turning them into a broader appeal. helen cat, successes and turning them into a broaderappeal. helen cat, bbc south—east today. the pollsters have come in for some stick today. for not really predicting anything like the result that we ended up having! one polling
organisation that did get pretty close was your golf and joe twyman joins us from there. big smile! you came infor joins us from there. big smile! you came in for some stick and one pundit said the methodology was com pletely pundit said the methodology was completely wrong. there is no way the conservatives are not going to get a majority. how come you got it right and everyone else got it wrong? it is fair to say our estimate when released at the time when in cambridge, it was not met with universal acclaim, it is fair to say. in fact, an academic called matt goodman threatened to eat his book if labour got more than 38% and he isa book if labour got more than 38% and he is a friend of mine! we had a lot of people saying we were over estimating the degree to which young people would turn out to vote and in this election, within any other in recent memory, labour committed that age group and the assumption was that they would turn out to some extent but the degree to which they turn out will determine how big the
majority would be for theresa may if she got one. we expected the turnout would be higher than in previous elections but not by much but enough to make a difference and others thought it would be low, which is why you have ranges from the hung parliament up to that 100 seat majority. that is fascinating. how do you decide, having polled a certain number of people and getting the result you think could be replicated in the final analysis on the day. after the actual poll. and then decide, actually, there will be something like 1500 people who will stay in bed on the day of the opinion poll because they went drinking the day before and we will not factor them. how do you work that i'd? you can ask people how they expect to behave and compare that to how they actually have behaved at previous elections so you can go and see whether people have actually voted or not, local councils provide access to that and it takes time but it is possible. it comes down to experimentation and a
lot of competitors basically went on historical precedent, in the past young people have not turned out there for this time they will not. the problem with hysterical president is it holds on to the point when it does not. instead, we took a day to science approach and combined the data we had from people from the 2015 and 2010 general election is plus eu referendum to see how they voted compared to how they said they would vote and looked at wider surveys, both ours and others, that looked at how different demographic groups vote compared to the national average and then made conjugated estimates. does that mean that because we have such a high turnout of younger voters in this election, that will be fed into the modelling you do for the next election but then the next election, they might not turn in the same numbers? that's right so what we will be looking at is individual level change so when someone is seven out of ten enthusiastic, if
they are five out of ten next time, that means they are less enthusiastic so we have to factor in what impact that would make and it is very good getting the share of the vote correct but more importantly is whether those people are going to turn out or not because it doesn't matter who you support if you are not turning out at the ballot box. it is what the politicians say, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. given that all major parties have their own internal polling operations wrong, given that there are number of polling organisations, yours being one of the exceptions, that got it right, but the majority got it wrong. should we actually bother listening to pollsters? well, i think you should definitely listen to me! you got it right! that is very count. what i think is that all polling has to address the issue of how you effectively modelled the population you're trying to survey and increasingly we are moving from
and increasingly we are moving from an era of just and increasingly we are moving from an era ofjust surveys into the era of data science and you have heard lot of sciences —— cliches about big data science but that might very well be the future of the industry and the work we have done in this area, working with everyone from academics from the london school of economics to a team of data scientists at the university of sta mford scientists at the university of stamford and spending hundreds of thousands recruiting people to our sample, that count of work has paid dividends in this election and i think points to the future of the industry. it is all about algorithms, computers and modelling thatis algorithms, computers and modelling that is much more sophisticated than in the past? the old days of knocking on doors or stopping people on the street and asking who they will vote for will not produce accurate results any more. because a lot of people my! that is a whole other debate! i saw that in the states and i have seen it here. good to see you. many thanks. let's take a look at some of tomorrow's front pages. the financial times has as
its main story theresa may's weakened position on brexit after the election result. the daily mirror leads with theresa may's government alliance with the dup. the i calls theresa may's decision to call a snap general election ‘a catastrophic misjudgement‘. the times headline reads ‘may stares into the abyss'. they say the prime minister was clinging on to power. the daily mail says the tories turn on to raise, reporting that furious mps were threatening to oust the prime minister within six months after what it called her disastrous election campaign. now we leave you with some of the sights and sounds of the last 26 hours and the conservative election gamble that backfired. they are still the largest party but with far fewer seats and are now forced to strike a deal with the dup in a hung parliament. theresa may is clinging onto power and many are saying, for how much longer? and what we are saying
is the conservatives are the largest party, note they don't have an overall majority at this stage. unless the exit poll is incredibly wrong, the prime minister has failed to achieve her principal objective. the worst possible outcome would be a hung parliament. cheering. politics has changed, and politics isn't going back. cheering. you live by the sword and you die by the sword. i am standing down today as the leader of ukip with immediate effect. cheering. are you resigning, prime minister? are you stepping down, mrs may? morning, all! i will now form a government. a government that can provide certainty and lead britain forward at this critical time for our country. we will enter discussions with the conservatives. now, let's get to work.
the last time i was here i rather excitedly spoke about the return of summerand excitedly spoke about the return of summer and has been some changes in the outlook and that return might be a little delayed. we will look apart ina a little delayed. we will look apart in a moment but that is fair to the weekend first of all and quite a mixed bag, some rain arrived at times but there will be warm sunshine and throughout the weekend it will be rather breezy. we a good few rainbows on friday and this one was taken in derbyshire weather was heavier showers but those are well long gone and we are looking into the atlantic in this area of low pressure heading our way, pushing well ahead of that we have weather fronts which are blowing in more cloud and bringing outbreaks of rain
also. that rain clears away from northern ireland and we get sunshine and the rain pushes into scotland and the rain pushes into scotland and tends to become very light and patchy but the main rain band gets stuck across northern england and pushes into the south—west and the midlands might be dry, the sunnier skies for south east anglia and quite a warm and humid day here with temperatures perking up as he brighten up in northern ireland and south—west scotland. the band of rain still ride through the evening and it slides towards a midlands but at the same time the rain becomes very light and patchy and tends to die out towards the end of the night and a few breaks following behind, showers towards the north—west and quite breezy overnight and temperatures in many towns and cities at 13 or 16. the second half of the weekend looks like this, still that band of cloud, the week weather front and it will bring a very different look to the weather across east anglia and the south—east and we might get rain later on and still decent temperatures, still quite humid and elsewhere sunshine and showers and by far the most frequent and heavier
showers across west of scotland and northern ireland. still blustery winds on sunday also and around that area of low pressure. the weather front bringing that rain towards the south—east moves away from monday and we are sure in some fresh air across the whole of the country. still quite a few isobars on the chart you will notice. monday still blustery, particularly across the northern half where we are more likely to catch a few showers and not as many on monday. and for the south that might be dry with temperatures recovering just a little. pressure is higher here and this was the return of summer, which is not quite there just yet on tuesday and we have this weather front spinning around the area of low pressure, pushing the north—west of the uk, threatening a little rain to northern ireland and west of scotla nd to northern ireland and west of scotland but otherwise it is probably going to be dry and lighter winds for england and wales and temperatures on the rise just a little bit on tuesday. we will take you back to the jet stream, we look
to that and all of the undulations in thejet to that and all of the undulations in the jet stream all the way from north america towards the uk and are not as many as those, there is a dip in thejet not as many as those, there is a dip in the jet stream across the other side of the atlantic but then it looks like it is flattening for a while. that means the jet stream is going to pick up areas of low pressure and threaten to push them towards the north—west of the uk and the high which was further north for the high which was further north for the well is going to be further south. as we head well into next week, later next week, still a chance of rain for a while across the north, maybe some spots of rain to the south also but hear it'll drier and nowhere will be drier and nowhere was the heavy rain at all, not like it was earlier in the week. it will become warmer in the south, perhaps very warm by next weekend. goodbye. tonight at ten, theresa may
is back in downing street, but her parliamentary majority is gone and britain has a hung parliament. her decision to call an early election has backfired. mrs may will now try to govern with the support of northern ireland's democratic unionists. i have just been to see her majesty the queen, and i will now form a government, a government that will provide certainty and lead britain forward at this critical time for our country. and later, the prime minister expressed her regret at the result, and her sorrow for those conservatives who lost their seats. labour made gains across britain, confounding many predictions, asjeremy corbyn said his party was the real winner.
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