Skip to main content

tv   HAR Dtalk  BBC News  November 29, 2018 4:30am-5:00am GMT

4:30 am
military support for the saudi—led war in yemen. the secretaries of state and defence had urged the senate not to support the motion, arguing that it would make the situation in yemen worse. the bank of england is warning of the possibility of an immediate economic crash, if the uk leaves the european union without a deal. the governor says a shock to growth is possible, more damaging than the financial crisis of 2008, shrinking the economy by 8%. thousands evacuate their homes as australia's fire and flood warning levels are raised to ‘catastrophic‘ for the first time. two people died in sydney when the heaviest rainfall in decades fell in the city. now on bbc news, here's hardtalk‘s stephen sackur
4:31 am
in conversation with danuta hubner mep who's on the brexit steering group of the european parliament. welcome to hardtalk. injust welcome to hardtalk. in just a few days time, the uk parliament will make a fateful decision, to accept oi’ make a fateful decision, to accept or reject theresa may's brexit deal painfully negotiated with the eu. right cross europe, the vote will have huge repercussions. for all of the focus on britain's little crisis, this is europe's problem too. my guess is danuta hubner, an influential mep who sits on the brexit steering group in parliament. is the eu ready to deal with potential brexit chaos? danuta
4:32 am
hubner in brussels, welcome to hardtalk. welcome to you as well. i talked about the fateful decision facing british parliament, how closely are you and others at the heart of power in brussels, watching the events unfold in the uk right now? well, we have him, i think, watching safely what is going on in the uk from the very beginning from this announcement made years ago for the future referendum, then dealing with mr cameron in february 2016 and
4:33 am
then of course, the referendum which was a big, bad surprise to me personally. then the notification and we organise ourselves in the parliament in such a way that it could not only follow, but also contribute to the negotiations. we have been also briefed basically weekly by michel barnier, chief eu negotiator on progress on the negotiations, the challenges on the negotiations. we have evolved through a special structure called brexit steering group, involving five major political group in european parliament in this process of being part of that brexit negotiations with a view to build a constructive body, a constructive majority for the future vote on the deal once it is finalised, which is actually the situation today. just a few days ago theresa may and the eu could seven leaders agreed on the
4:34 am
withdrawal agreement treaty. —— put the seven leaders. they also agreed ona the seven leaders. they also agreed on a framework between the eu 27 and written. after that deal was done, jean—claude juncker come of the president of the commission, said this is the best deal possible, in fa ct this is the best deal possible, in fact it is the only deal possible. we are not to take an entirely seriously, are we? ithink we are not to take an entirely seriously, are we? i think one should take it seriously because after a ll should take it seriously because after all the negotiations, we have reached an agreement. if you look at oui’ reached an agreement. if you look at our watches, you can look at them and see the time is disappearing very quickly and we have very limited time out to finalise the whole process and you can see on the basis of what is going on now in the uk that it is a process, the will, political discussion and the deal and on our side we need to go to the
4:35 am
procedure which requires some months. so we are actually in a moment where we cannot waste more time and we cannot imagine that there can be some going back to the table and renegotiating. i don't thinkjean—claude juncker has exaggerated, i think there is nothing hidden as a plan b hair. you say nothing hidden, no plan b, we'll get back to that in a moment. given the sensitivity of the time, the clock is ticking and everything now needs to happen very quickly, howell why is the think it was fought emmanuel macron, the french president, right after the signing of the deal at the leadership level, how wise was it for him to come out and tell europe's press that in his view, france and the eu now had a major lever which they could use over britain. he described the backstop arrangement by which the british will stay in a customs union if there is no future agreement on
4:36 am
trade relationship december 2020, he did so —— he described that arrangement, the indefinite arrangement, the indefinite arrangement, as a tool and a lever to ensure that france will get what it wanted on fisheries, for example. that was very damaging, wasn't it? you know, when you think back the last two years and you remember what politicians said for the whole purpose of talking to the public at home that a lot of unnecessary things have been said and i think this language of using every opportunity to speak to our own electorate, our own public public. today, when you say something, immediately on the other continent they hear the same thing in the same moment. yes, ithink they hear the same thing in the same moment. yes, i think certainly things are definitely unnecessary and especially we have been
4:37 am
avoiding, up until now, this trade—off approach and we have never linked anything to the other thing, so linked anything to the other thing, soi linked anything to the other thing, so i don't think this is in the spirit of the negotiations that have so spirit of the negotiations that have so far been maintained and i trust it will be maintained in the future. forgive me for interrupting, what i can get into is the point that many people in britain who support what is called a hard brexit and i can think people like borisjohnson, the former uk foreign secretary who you know well, jacob rees mogg and others, they described the deal that has been done by theresa may as a form of capitulation, as a form of surrender. they use this word vasse alleged to indicate that the eu will retain power and control over many aspects of britain's economy and return‘s life, with britain having no say in the future at the eu table. can you, as a pole, and the
4:38 am
poles have a scepticism about the eu, can you understand the concern in return today? we have been responding, i have also personally invested a lot of my time in this process to make the process really as friendly as possible as a process of separation of two sides that have had times in the past and would like also to have a very deep relationship in the future, i think we have too maintained this period, but also what we could hear and i would say in particular from the british politicians very often, the comments that were very far from the reality which have even been ignoring the way the european union functions and is structured, there has been a lot of intention, which i think is unnecessary, to the community to say it will have a0 million inhabitants once the ee —— the uk changes the rules on which we
4:39 am
have built our unity, our functioning, our single market. have built our unity, our functioning, oursingle market. i guess the time has come now that the politicians would really start talking to people seriously about the consequences of no deal, also understanding and explaining to the people the deal that is really on those 585 pages, or 20 something pages of the political declaration. i think people would be surprised that a lot of things which are presented to them are not really a reality which is in this deal. let's strip away any misinformation and let's get down to reality. you will know as well as i do, that the mathematics for theresa may at the moment look terrible. it looks very, very difficult for her to win a majority in the house of commons for this deal. i would imagine that you would agree that it is incumbent upon the eu side, as well as the
4:40 am
british side, to begin to think about what will happen if the uk parliament rejects the deal. there are various propositions for renegotiation of the agreement. are you telling me that it is too late for any renegotiation, or is there room for more talk? all i can say is that i repeat what has been said over the last few days on our site by all of the leaders at the european institutions level, also at a national level that we have finalise negotiations and what we have discussed with the no time to start from scratch. this is something both sides you to take seriously. we have managed to convince out would be seven member states, not all of them were very happy with everything that is in the deal, have managed to convince them that this is a deal that we have to accept as an offer also by the prime
4:41 am
minister to the public and to the politicians in london. i am sorry, but... ican politicians in london. i am sorry, but... i can see it would be very difficult at this point to on pic the binding withdrawal agreement, which ultimately will take tricky form. that will be very difficult, but it would be much less difficult to change the wording of the declaration on the future relationship. there are people in the uk who are now saying what we need is a much clearer vision for the future. whether it be to what is called a norway plus a solution, which would see britain in the european free trade area, that is what some of the more soft brexit ears would like to see, or a nod towards eight canada plus super—sized free—trade agreement, which is what people like boris johnson would like to see. either way, surely there is still time to change the wording on the declaration about the future relationship? you know, it is not only that changing the wording in
4:42 am
the declaration, this is a com pletely the declaration, this is a completely different concept. so far, you might rememberfrom day one of this process from leaving the european union that the uk has been very clear on what we call the red line the. what we heard so many times and it was just something repeated by everybody that the uk definitely will leave the single market, which is the norway or the ea solution, the uk will leave the customs union, the uk was actually presenting the red lines and conditions. my point is that everything needs to be on the table book is written is in political chaos, there is total meltdown crisis, it is quite possible that after december 11 there will be a majority in the house of commons to push forward a norway plus a solution, which would involve the european free trade agreement, would involve written playing by the rules of the single market. what i need to
4:43 am
hear from you is whether you are competitive and consider that? we shouldn't discuss it until we reached such a moment and there will bea reached such a moment and there will be a political crisis and of course both sides will need to sit together and see if we can still do anything for the and see if we can still do anything forthe uk, in and see if we can still do anything for the uk, in the spirit of the eu to have good relations with neighbours and never aim atjust punishing or making somebody‘s life difficult. we also have our laurels and we also have our limit when it comes to the solutions offered to third countries and we also have this time limit and we also have the kind —— behind us that have led to some sort of brexit fatigue on this side because we also have other things to do. believe me, i understand brexit fatigue, i want to keep questions as simple as possible, and your answers. simple questions. would you consider, you have an important post at the
4:44 am
european parliament, would you and the brussels powers considered extending the deadline beyond march 29, to give britain, despite all of its chaos, more time to sort out what it wants? i think this possibly would exist but you would possibly have very strip rules that would have very strip rules that would have to be respected. what can you imagine, in the current political situation in the uk, that there will be an agreement of staying longer in the european union when we have had so the european union when we have had so many times that 29 march, 11pm, not a second more, it is strange to imagine this request could come from the uk. that is what i am saying, in your situation i think it is certainly not welcome, but met with an open attitude and goodwill on our side and with faith, but let's hope we don't reach that stage where you have to test our readiness to go
4:45 am
back to the negotiating table. i still think that mrs may will have... cani still think that mrs may will have... can i say one more thing, i believe that mrs may could depersonalise the agreement and make itan depersonalise the agreement and make it an agreement which is a uk agreement, i think other politicians would feel the responsibility for the future of the british citizens and businesses and find an agreement which is proposed, an agreement with the uk government, acceptable.” the uk government, acceptablelj find the uk government, acceptable.” find it interesting that you say it is believed that it is possible, the eu side would consider extending the deadline, in essence, suspending the deadline, in essence, suspending the deadline in article 50 two year rule. that is interesting because many british politicians are thinking, for example, that britain might need to go through a general election or even a second brexit or eu in or out referendum. i wonder whether any politicians of the ruling conservative party or the
4:46 am
opposition labour party or the liberal democrats or the scottish nationalists, have they been talking to you about the possibility of a second referendum and about the need, therefore, to extend the deadline? you know, the deadline extension has been a thing from the very beginning a possibility, because that is also in the european parliament resolution, that we can imagine this, but this would require unanimity on the side of the european union, so you would have 27 litres, 27 member states, willing to do so. and it would require also the request coming, justified request coming from the uk to do it. but i am not saying that it is absolutely possible to do this. would be also political. i don't want to use the word gesture, but probably political gesture is the right word. but clearly justified, and i gesture is the right word. but clearlyjustified, and i can imagine that it would be maybe more imaginable if that just
4:47 am
that it would be maybe more imaginable if thatjust happened by default and not due to political problems, because those political problems, because those political problems would have been sold already, months if not years ago. have you spoken to any british politicians about it? yes, i think many people... you know, i have had hundreds of meetings over the last two years... forgive me, but i need in the last week. it is now... it is d—day, it is the moment of truth in britain. ijust wonder if british politicians are talking to you about different scenarios right now.” didn't meet anybody with this request who is responsible for decision—making on the uk side, this ican decision—making on the uk side, this i can say. but of course there are many citizens, many organisations, that are coming to us. many also probably we could think of politicians coming also from more devolved territories than from london. but of course, nobody talks officially to us. nobody who is in power to make this type of decision on behalf of the british government. right, the more we talk in the more
4:48 am
i hear you use words like flexibility and trying to make this work for both sides, the more i realise that jean—claude juncker‘s statement this is the only deal has to be taken with a grain of salt, and it strikes me that europe faces and it strikes me that europe faces a crisis here as well, not least as if britain were to leave in a disorderly brexit, some call it the crash out wrecks it, it would have grave consequences for the member states of the european union, particularly ireland, which could lose up to 3% or more of its gdp over the coming years. german exporters, the dutch, who trade so much with the uk. the truth is that the eu membership, as well as britain, can't really afford to countenance a disorderly, no deal brexit. i don't think that when jean—claude juncker said and then others repeated it that there was something which was not reality, i think it is reality. there is no other deal under... today there is
4:49 am
no other deal to be offered to the uk, orto be no other deal to be offered to the uk, or to be renegotiated. but that isa uk, or to be renegotiated. but that is a different story from what we have been discussing, which is the extension of article 50, which of course would be limited, because we have elections the european parliament, as you might remember, a couple of months later after the uk leads. so there would be a limit, evenif leads. so there would be a limit, even if that would be feasible. but what is, i think, i even if that would be feasible. but what is, ithink, i hope, a common approach, but definitely the european approach, that the most undesirable result, outcome of this process , undesirable result, outcome of this process, would be an ideal scenario. it is even hard to imagine the consequences of this, especially for the uk. but not only... there are still some politicians in the uk who believe that no deal would be also a negotiated scenario. no, no deal is just know it... nothing with regard to citizens which would be negotiated, nothing with regard also to the irish order, no transition period. the crash out, as you say,
4:50 am
just overnight, and the dramatic consequences not only for citizens but also for businesses, hence also for the economy. so yes, we are against the scenario. yes, of course you are against it, but again, isn't the truth is somewhat different from the truth is somewhat different from the way you present it. you say the crash out brexit will lead to this disaster in relation to the rights of polish citizens in the uk, of which there are1 of polish citizens in the uk, of which there are 1 million or more... i was thinking also of british citizens in europe. indeed, the truth is that if they really were to be no deal brexit, in the last weeks before it actually happened, surely eu officials would get together with british officials and make sure that they were ad hoc arrangements to ensure that the planes kept flying, the port remained open, that polls could still work in the uk and british citizens could still work in poland —— poles. ad hoc arrangements would be made. so in a sense you are scaring people, aren't you? no, quite the contrary. we are thinking that this is something that we have
4:51 am
to ta ke that this is something that we have to take into account, like the brits also have taken it into account. we have to be prepared to avoid these dramatic consequences for people, for businesses. that is why we are waiting in our hands with all the prepare it must and all the contingency planning for this. the most undesirable outcome of the whole process. still, we have the ratification document in our hands, and then we can just stop preparing. because otherwise we would have to prepare to protect the citizens, protect businesses, as much as we can. but i think first of all, we must do everything exactly to avoid this scenario to take place, because it is inevitable if we don't have agreement on time, then we can't change the european treaties, we can't change the british loss, so there will be consequences of this. there are some things you can't prepare for, and i'm thinking in particular of poland's case, because of course you are a former polish eu
4:52 am
commissioner and government minister. the british air of the eu budget amounts to something like 1596. budget amounts to something like 15%. now, they have promised as part of the agreement to pay £39 billion in terms of their obligations and views to the eu as part of the divorce settlement. but if the deal isn't ratified and written crashes out of the eu, the british government isn't going to give you the 39 billion euros, and the government like poland which relies on eu money in so many different ways is going to be thrown into crisis. but just let ways is going to be thrown into crisis. butjust let me say two things. one is of course the british are not paying a fee of separation 01’ are not paying a fee of separation or divorce. the british contribution to the eu budget would be linked to the programmes, projects and research, among other things, there will be a continuation of all the programmes related to... during the transition, to be end of the financial perspective... well, you can dress it up anyway you want, but i think it is quite plain that if britain crashes out of the eu you
4:53 am
will not be getting your 39 billion euros, nothing like. is one thing, and the other thing is of course if we have an ideal scenario than we are fully aware that there will be no contribution from the uk to the budget, and you may be surprised, listen closely to the polish government, which is not my government, which is not my government, saying that they are prepared to pay more to the eu budget to maintain the policies which poland benefits from. so in your view, the eu could withstand all of the problems, challenges and pressure that would come with a crash out, disorderly brexit. well, both sides would be affected, that is absolutely clear. as you can imagine, we have also in the uk but also on the continent, we have altogether, i think, also on the continent, we have altogether, ithink, more also on the continent, we have altogether, i think, more than 28 million small and medium—size companies, which have not prepared like the big financial firms. they never functioned even outside the single market. they neverfunctioned outside the customs union. so yes, it will be a very difficult situation for many businesses, also
4:54 am
for citizens. we can have emergency measures that would help in the short run, but we would have to be prepared that soon those measures. being applied and we will move to a third country regime with the uk or other relations with the uk. so yes, this is a process which costs, that is obvious, and it will cost much more, and we have two... we have the capacity as politicians and the responsibility to avoid this. no deal is not... last question. it is personal and it is emotional. you have known britain for a long time, long experience working with the british. are you feeling very angry towards the british today? we respect the decision, we regret it very much, and i am certainly among those people who regretted probably above the average. so yes, i am angry. i regret it, and i cannot understand and i also hope that those who might wish to create a
4:55 am
ha rd those who might wish to create a hard brexit, a crash out, but they will understand the consequences for the generations of brits, of other europeans. so i think our duty is first of all to find an agreement that would allow us to have an orderly brexit. no important what nonsense it actually is for me. danuta hubner, thank you very much for being on hardtalk. thank you. hello there. the atlantic is set to be pretty relentless in terms of throwing spells of wet and windy weather our way in the coming days. this hook of cloud here is the spell of windy weather and rain that we had on wednesday, that low centre rolling away. this one, though, developing
4:56 am
quite explosively as well to the south—west as we go through the early part of thursday, promises even stronger winds than we saw yesterday, and some very heavy rain. certainly not looking great for the morning rush hour. there will be a risk of some disruption, and bbc local radio is a great place to head to, to get the details where you are. this is what that picture will look like, however. 6:00am, well, pretty muchjust about everywhere seeing some rain at this stage. 0n the plus side, it's a mild start, temperatures in double figures. through the morning, the wettest weather will start to push its way northwards pretty quickly. the strong winds, though, will remain an issue, i think, throughout in the morning, especially across the western side of the uk, around the coasts and across the hills. these are the gust strengths in the black circles. you can see 50, 60, maybe even 70 mph there off the coast of pembrokeshire. the stronger winds, as well, pushing further north into northern england and the south—east of scotland as the morning goes on. so, as a rough rule of thumb, 50—60 possible just about anywhere towards the west.
4:57 am
in exposure, we could be talking 70 or a little bit more. the rain pushes its way northwards pretty quickly through the morning, many areas actually seeing a great improvement come the afternoon. quite a few showers, though, packing into the west, the north—east of scotland keeping the rain until the end of the day. a mild story, though, thanks to that air coming in from the south—west. 13 or 1a degrees as a high. quite a few showers around in western exposures through thursday evening. low pressure stays in charge. that's what's feeding those showers in. it just, though, starts to change its orientation slightly for friday, bringing the air in from the north—west, and that will be just a slightly cooler direction. still some showers, thanks to that low, for western exposures on friday. but for many, actually, a much quieter day. yes, still breezy, but nothing like the winds of thursday. and i think many areas could escape with a dry day, temperatures just a couple of degrees down on those we see on thursday.
4:58 am
now, onto the weekend. another couple of these little areas of low pressure look like they're going to head our way. the question is, will they be around in the daytime or will they come rolling through overnight? at the moment, it looks like some of the wettest weather could be first thing on saturday and first thing on sunday, and as the day goes on, we could see increasing amounts of sunshine. but stay tuned to keep up—to—date with the detail for your weekend weather. this is the briefing, i'm sally bundock. our top stories: feeling the heat. a new climate report reveals why hot weather could overwhelm health services around the world. thousands evacuate their homes as australia's fire and flood warning levels are raised to catastrophic for the first time. a warning from the bank of england that a no—deal brexit could mean recession and a collapse in the pound. it could also impact counterterrorism with the countries it partners. globalisation's new champion.
4:59 am
presidency promises a new open china forforeign firms presidency promises a new open china for foreign firms ahead of a g20 showdown with president trump.
5:00 am


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on