tv Outside Source BBC News October 17, 2019 9:00pm-10:01pm BST
hello, i'm ros atkins. this is outside source. we're going to start in brussels. we have a deal. today, we have a deal. a deal has been found. deliver brexit without any more delay. borisjohnson says it's a great deal which allows the uk to take back control but he still has to get mps at westminster to back it. and i hope very much now, speaking of elected representatives, that my fellow mps in westminster do now come together to get brexit done, to get this excellent deal over the line. that task has got harder though. but the support of northern ireland's dup is crucial
and they've rejected it. we'll have the latest on that and all the latest developments in brussels. and westminster. and after five hours of talks, the us vice president says turkey has agreed to a cease—fire in northern syria so kurdish—led forces can withdraw. it will be a pause in military operations for 120 hours while the united states facilitates the withdrawal of ypg from the affected areas in the safe zone. two major stories. we will have comprehensive coverage of both across the hour. we'll have extensive coverage of the cease—fire in northern syria that turkey and america have announced. inafew in a few minutes on the programme.
first though, there is a brexit deal. and for all its complexities, brexit boiled down to one simple choice for boris johnson, and one for the eu. for the eu — would it reopen theresa may's deal — after repeatedly saying it wouldn't. the answer was yes. for borisjohnson, it was this. if brexit had to mean the uk leaving the eu's single market and customs union, if the eu wouldn't accept any form of customs checks on the island of ireland, if a backstop that keeps the uk in the eu's customs union until a new trade deal is done has to go, if all of those things are true, and they were, would the prime minister allow northern ireland become a separate customs entity and cease to be one and the same as the rest of the uk? borisjohnson‘s answer was yes. he would do what previously promised that he wouldn't. both sides reveresed previous positions. and so this morning boris johnson tweeted. ..
that reference to saturday is because there will be a special sitting of parliament when this entire brexit saga will come to a head. and the numbers look very, very tight. more on that in a minute. first, let's look at what's changed. well, around 95% is exactly the same as theresa may's deal the divorce bill, reciprocal citizens‘ rights and so on. but this time the backstop is gone and instead northern ireland will remain aligned to the eu's customs union and some single market regulations. in practice this means a customs borderfor goods in the irish sea. that appears to be acceptable to the vast majority of conservative mps but for the dup in northern ireland, it's not. all along throughout this entire process, we've been told that in order
to protect the belfast agreement and the political institutions and process in northern ireland that we've been embroiled in this tedious, long, labourious exercise. and now at the last minute the irish government, europe, and london are agreeing to drive a coach and horses through the very belfast agreement they professed to support. the dup has ten seats in parliament. in a statement it said... you can find this online. we pulled that one quote from it... it goes on... and this is the crucial point. the dp argue they undermine the integrity of the united kingdom, of the union. but the prime minister sees it differently. it means that we can deliver a real brexit that achieves our objectives
and it means that the uk leaves whole and entire on october the 31st. and there was this was from the prime minister — and the eu's jean—claude juncker. ijust remind you what i always say, that we are a quintessential european country, solid european friends, neighbours, and supporters. and we look forward to working with you in building that partnership in the weeks and months to come. thank you all very much. er... hey, hey! jean—claude‘s the boss here! i have to say that i am happy about a deal, but i am sad about brexit. and we're done. thank you! —— have a good time. there were similar sentiments from the irish prime minister. i have mixed feelings today. i really regret that
the united kingdom is leaving the european union but i absolutely respect their decision to do so. it's a little bit like an old friend that is going on a journey, or an adventure without us. and we really hope it works out for them. but i think there will always be a place at the table for the united kingdom if they ever choose to come back. so, the eu supports this deal. but it knows the uk parliament may reject it and may seek a brexit extension. jean—claude juncker was asked about that. reporter: what happens if this doesn't pass through parliament? but i am not in charge of the parliament ratification in britain, that is the job of boris. do you believe that it will? i hope it will. i'm convinced it will. but it has to. it has to — but if it doesn't? anyways, there will be no prolongation. no prolongation, no delay? no. could there be an
extension, mr juncker? we have concluded the deal. and so there is... not an argument for further delay. it has to be done now. workrooms berg asking the questions there. —— laura kuenssberg. here's katya adler on that speaking to huw edwards. they said if you keep with the redlands in this deal, protects the peace deal that we will help you sell your deal you want. and thus to borisjohnson sell your deal you want. and thus to boris johnson want to. sell your deal you want. and thus to borisjohnson want to. what does jean—claude juncker have any borisjohnson want to. what does jean—claudejuncker have any power over that? no legal power at all. it
is the eu member state leaders who decides there is an extension if not. and as fatigued as they are, if this deal gets voted down in the house of commons and this is a real fear here in the eu, then what? a second referendum, or referendum on the steel? are these leaders who have gone through this process for so have gone through this process for so long, worked out to brexit deals say the door is shut? they will not partly because of the blame game we have spoken about so often. they don't want to be slamming the face —— the door in the face of the uk. also their domestic concerns will some germany stands to lose 100,000 jobs in case of a no—deal brexit. they wanted to avoid this one —— this also why would they do this now? but also behind jean—claude juncker‘s words, keep the pressure on mps and focus your mind. focus your minds and think of it yes or no this time. an awful lot of pressure on those mps in westminster as we build up to
that special session on saturday. here's the prime minister again. we've been at this and now as i say three and a half years. it hasn't always been an easy experience for the uk. it's been long, it has been painful, it has been divisive. and now is the moment for us as a country to come together, now is a moment for our parliamentarians to come together and get this thing done. where very much focus on the house of commons because it must take a decision on the deal. but we should emphasise it's not just westminster — european parliament has to pass the deal too. its brexit chief says...
his point being he alone cannot take a decision for the european parliament. christian fraser is in brussels. inevitably we spent a lot of time focused on westminster but is there really a prospect that the european permit could scupper this? no i don't think so and the reason for thatis don't think so and the reason for that is because michel barnier has kept the european parliament and the brexit steering committee in the loop throughout the last week in particular but all the way through this negotiation and also you have to remember the irish protocol, the new protocol we have is a 64 pages. the withdrawal agreement in its entirety is over 600 pages. 90% of this document remains exactly as it was when it went through the house of commons for the third meaningful vote. the parliament to a certain extent know what they're getting. what they want over the next week or so what they want over the next week or so when they reconvene in strasburg is to look at the detail, what they
call legal scrubbing, go through it and make sure there is nothing in there that brings any surprises. and then they will debate it. but i think the expectation, let's find out is that it will go through. with me isa out is that it will go through. with me is a man who sits on the brexit committee. is that a fair assessment? yes. how long will it ta ke assessment? yes. how long will it take you to go through it and work out whether everything is as it should be? my team has been working going through the agreement and we are already an assessment. this is not rocket science, it is complex but it is also a matter of trust. frankly, do we think that michel barnier and his team have done a good job and sold out the european union and the ecl market? no we don't. we trust our negotiating team andindeed don't. we trust our negotiating team and indeed my gut feeling is that one of the two variants of the possible agreement that whether we
had the theresa may backs up, she wanted a pan uk backstop, that was refused we went back to the northern irish backstop. we dressed it up a bit and here it is. it is not like we are discovering brand—new stuff here. people will ask at home, what has fundamentally changed share? the backstop is the really big problem, it was an insurance policy in all circumstances to keep that border between north and south open. this isa between north and south open. this is a dealfor the between north and south open. this is a deal for the future, a between north and south open. this is a dealfor the future, a leave construct that whatever the future trade deal looks like. it's more than an insurance policy and in this apparent solution which is fine by us. apparent solution which is fine by us. when we get a free-trade agreement which boris johnson us. when we get a free-trade agreement which borisjohnson wants, it will be embedded within this structure. exactly but again i understand boris johnson once structure. exactly but again i understand borisjohnson once a free—trade agreement but he doesn't wa nt free—trade agreement but he doesn't want too much regulatory alignment between the united kingdom because he has admitted he wants to cut io
legislation on environment, social status, tax centres and the rest of it was up and if that is his plan, he he can wish goodbye to a free—trade agree with the eu. what happened? that is explicitly said and deployed with declarations. the degree of market access will be contingent on the degree of regulatory alignment of the uk to the eu legislation. if they want big market access, they need very strong regulatory alignment. you can't have one without the other. we are back to this discussion, we know that borisjohnson is in that camp but i think he was soon discovered that is not exactly on offer. when it comes to the timing of it, politically for borisjohnson it to the timing of it, politically for boris johnson it must to the timing of it, politically for borisjohnson it must be out for the sist borisjohnson it must be out for the 31st of october two, do you think we have enough time between now and the sist have enough time between now and the 31st of october to sign that
agreement? it depends on westminster. imagined by miracle that westminster adopts the deal next saturday, i think the european parliament can likewise suite. but i've yet to be convinced that we can do that. you are not filled with hope that they will do that. well know because let's face it we have been here before. we have concluded a deal with the bridge from minister... but his huge enthusiasm tonight, boris johnson, minister... but his huge enthusiasm tonight, borisjohnson, what is he done to you? that's usually the bombastic way he communicates but if something goes well, you claim optimism but reality follows. reality is something that is some inertia. it has been through permits time and again, he has tried to sideline department, and this is the very apartment he needs on saturday. lam not very apartment he needs on saturday. i am not sure he created the warm and fuzzy feeling and westminster that would excite people to make impresses. philip lander, always
interesting to hear you. thank you for your time this evening. there you hear the thoughts of the european parliament. not entirely convinced that the vote on saturday is going to go borisjohnson‘s way. christian, very interesting interview. certainly true that there is not a warm and fuzzy can between boris johnson and some mps was up there was not a warm and fuzzy feeling between where chanson and senior figures in the european union. but they got a deal done today anyone predicting what will happen on san —— saturday is a braver man than i am. “— —— saturday is a braver man than i am. —— braver man or woman that i am. you can read even more on this story on our website. it's all there. this is on our live site and on the bbc news app. that is one huge story we are covering but there is another of equal significance because after lengthy talks, the americans and turks have agreed to a cease—fire in north and syria with that turkish offence of stopping for the moment. we would swing to you how this in
theory is going to work. legislators in california have made it illegal to create or distribute so—called deep—fake images. deep—fake technology is increasingly used in pornographic material. actress, bella thorne had a video of her mourning the death of her father has been used in online porn. 0bviously my father is dead. and then they put that together with a girl mass debating and this video is going around and everyone is really thinking it is me. earlier this year a hacker threatened to publish topless photos of her. her response was to release the nude images herself but she worries that a deep—fake may be used to back mail ordinary people in the future.|j don't know how we break away things of that because it is notjust going to be your favourite celebrity or your favourite this person or this person that you want to put in this app. because you can do it your best
friend in school if you decide you hate them so much, you can send it around to this person, you can do it toa around to this person, you can do it to a famous politician... this is 0utside source live from the bbc newsroom. 0ur lead story is... a new brexit deal has been agreed between the uk and the eu. borisjohnson says it's a great deal which allows the uk to take back control but he still has to get mps at westminster to back it. we turn to some of the main story from bbc world service. police in the barcelona say they were attacked with petrol bombs and acid during a third night of violent separatist protests. the unrest follows the jailing of nine catalan leaders over the failed attempt to break away from spain in 2017. meanwhile, the pro—independence leader of catalonia has proposed a fresh plan for moving towards self—determination, a new referendum by the end of 2021. it's been the deadliest week
in indian—administered kashmir since the region's special status was revoked by the indian government in august. three civilians have been killed since monday, allegedly by armed insurgents. separately, security forces say they've shot dead three militants. a female moroccan journalist who was sentenced to a year in prison last month for having pre—marital sex and an alleged abortion has walked free after she received a pardon from king mohammed. the case caused an international outcry. rights groups said she was targeted because of her work for an independent newspaper. now let me update you on this five day cease—fire announced by turkey and the us for the north of syria. turkish president recep tayyip erdogan met with the us vice president mike pence earlier in ankara. here's the vice president. a week after turkish forces cross
into syria, turkey and the united states of america had agreed to a cease—fire in syria. it will be a pause in military operations for 120 hours while the united states facilitates the withdrawal of ypg from the affected areas in the safe zone and once that is completed, turkey has agreed to a permanent cease—fire and united states of america will work with turkey. this temporary cease—fire has come 11 days into the offensive — which began with turkey bombing and then moving its troops into north eastern syria. and then troops became involved too. the cease—fire could see kurdish forces withdrawing beneath this line — the perimeter of what turkey is calling a "safe zone" it intends to create, which would reach some 30km into syria. turkey has only agreed to stop fighting for 120 hours. but president donald trump nevertheless was quick to take the credit.
this is an amazing outcome. this is an outcome regardless of how the press would like to tamp it down, this was something that they have been trying to get for ten years. it would've lost millions and millions of lives. they could not have gotten it without a little rough love as i called. they needed a little bit of that at the beginning and then everybody said wow this is tougher than we thought. the syrian democratic forces have reported to agree to a cease—fire. but let's get more. here's barbara plett—usher. 0n the syrian government ‘s position. mr pence said he had been in contact with the kurdish militia ypg and had assured that they would participate in this, that they would go along with it but we have not really gods official confirmation of that. we are hearing reports that the head of
the political wing of this outfit is saying "we don't know all the details of the agreement, we will wait until we know all the details before we respond." that is of course going to be crucial and it would be seen as quite a defeat for the kurdish militias. this is an area they have been fighting for for many years. they have been using it asa many years. they have been using it as a sort of heartland of their autonomous region, one they have been able to set up in the recent yea rs been able to set up in the recent years and invested a lot in it. it would be a big thing for them to pull back. but having said that, they are being squeezed on several different fronts. we will have to see how they take this agreement. and a recently aligned with the syrian military. so what is the syrian military. so what is the syrian government's view of this kind of plan? i think the syrian government would want to know who is going to be in control of this safe zone. thejoint agreement going to be in control of this safe zone. the joint agreement did not
actually define what the territory would be. but president erdogan has been talking about a strip of land 30 km into syria which is essentially the whole length of the syrian turkish border. it is almost the whole way. if that is the case, that would be a significant amount of land and if turkey thinks that it is going to administer it, that might be something that the syrian government might not be particularly pleased with. the joint agreement says that the turkish forces will be responsible. will they be deployed there? that is not clear. to add to there? that is not clear. to add to the story, local tv is quoting an stf commander will stop a commander from this kurdish force... he says that... he claims the kurds will co—operate with this plan. they appear to be true. we will come back to that story later in the
programme. let's attack back towards breck —— brexit. working at the business dimension. the world bank says uncertainty caused by brexit is weighing notjust on the uk's economy — but also on europe's too. the bank's president made the comments to the bbc at the start of its annual meeting in washington. this is the clip. we have seen a slowdown in the uk itself so there has been one quarter of negative growth. that is the most dramatic part of it. but the european union itself has slowed down quite a bit. in germany, manufacturing is in negative territory so some parts of that are related to the uncertainty over brexit. samira hussain, washington. i want to understand his point better. is it the uncertainty or the active brexit he feels is affecting the uk and european economies? right
now it is the uncertainty that is really having an impact on the economy in the uk and in the spiller effect into europe. the issue of courses when you have this of uncertainty it means businesses will not feel comfortable to make investments. if they are not making investments. if they are not making investments than that has a ripple effect all across the economy. this is something we talk about a lot about markets wanting certainty and investors wanting certainty and it is certainly the case here because no one knows what brexit is going to look like or what this exit from the european union is definitely going to look like and as a result eve ryo ne to look like and as a result everyone has been really hesitant and that has an impact on business. presumably the problems that he was highlighting with regards to german manufacturing are not just highlighting with regards to german manufacturing are notjust connected to brexit. they are due to problems with the euro zone and specifically to germany. certainly there is that impact but don't forget when you're talking about manufacturing, it also
has an impact in terms of what else is happening everywhere else in the world. and so even to some respects there is an impact of the slowdown in manufacturing that has to do with the us and china trade dispute. all of that certainly has an impact but if you're asking in terms of what is the biggest risk to the european economy and specifically to the uk economy and specifically to the uk economy right now, it is of course brexit, there is no doubt. thank you very much. wife with us in washington from the world bank. we are going to be coming back and continuing our extensive coverage of this brexit deal announced by the uk and the eu. we will also be covering the cease—fire in the north of syria. with regards to this brexit deal and all the ramifications and contents deal and all the ramifications and co nte nts of deal and all the ramifications and contents of it, we try across the hour to explain what is fiendishly, keita. but if you're watching and thinking i still need to understand this element better, send us a message by e—mail or using the hashtag. we will be reporting live from westminster and brussels so we
can get your questions answered across the next 30 minutes. see you then. good evening. it is the time of day were we take a look at some interesting weather happening around the world. at our first stop is in north america where there's been see a potent nor‘easter storm affecting the northeast. you can see this area of cloud on the satellite image already producing heavy rain and some strong gusty winds across the northeastern states into southeast canada. those winds strong over the next 24 hours before the low pressure eventually clears out. things are also unsettled towards the pacific northwest and british columbia with heavy showers and blustery conditions here and we could see a tropical storm forming in the gulf of mexico and that's going to be affecting some goal states with some very some gulf states with some very heavy rain on friday with the likes of mississippi moving close to florida and georgia
through the course of the weekend. something to keep quite a close eye on there. meanwhile, here's the outlook for vancouver. looking unsettled over the next five days or so, more rain in the forecast here and you'll notice a real dip in temperatures in minnesota for the next week or so. now for india, the south—west monsoon has now withdrawn and what we are seeing is the onset of the north—east monsoon. that is bringing heavy showers to places, heavy shower rain and sri lanka too with some showers and some thunderstorms. drier further north though, in karachi, it is staying largely dry sunny and warm over there. there will be some showers and also some thunderstorms affecting mumbai at times. friday's weather and there is yet more rain across japan. it has been very unsettled, very stormy recently. more heavy rain sweeping into kyushu and southern honshu on friday, making its way further north. mostly dry day but through the east coast of china, we may very well see a tropical depression moving close to the philippines. plenty of scattered heavy showers
across the malay peninsula and across northern parts of indonesia, but drier further south. here's the outlook then, tokyo will continue to see unsettled conditions lasting for the next five days or so, manila should stay dry, and the effects of the potential tropical depression will be further north. on to europe where it is in northwest—southeast split to our weather. we have low pressure moving in from the atlantic, bringing in the showery theme to the uk, france, germany and into denmark as well. meanwhile for the southeast, a different story with lots of dry and sunny weather holding on across much of italy, towards croatia, greece and right across the balkans. some places like parts of the ukraine could see those temperatures from about 10 degrees above what we expect for this time of year. so the outlook for the uk, we have for the low pressure still very much in charge, blustery winds the next few days as those temperatures are going to be cooling down as well. eventually things will turn a little bit drier as we head on into next week. here is the outlook with more details on the week
hello, i'm ros atkins, this is 0utside source. a new brexit deal has been agreed, between the uk and the eu. we have a deal. today we have a deal. a deal has been found. deliver brexit without any more delay! boris johnson says it's a great deal — but he still has to get mps at westminster to back it — and northern ireland's dup isn't supporting it. what it means that we in the uk can come out of the eu as one united kingdom. england, scotland, wales, northern ireland and together, we can decide our future together.
we've studied the deal so you don't have to — and will tell you what you need to know. the other major story we're watching — after five hours of talks — the us vice president says turkey has agreed to a cease—fire in northern syria so kurdish—led forces can withdraw. it will be a pause in military operations for 120 hours while the united states facilitates the withdrawal of ypg from the affected areas in the safe zone. two major stories. we've got all the latest from brussels and the turkey—syria border. president erdogan has tweeted. many
a passing reference to that letter that donald trump sent to the president erdogan, urging them not to invade the north of syria syndicate unleashed a humanitarian disaster. his response was, if you wa nt to disaster. his response was, if you want to save lives, we have to defeat terrorism. that is reference to kurdish militia and bear in mind, the same kurdish militia were fighting on behalf of the us—led coalition encountering the islamic state group. so it is very complicated, but the moment, they have found sufficient common ground the river five day cease—fire and it seems according to senior sources within the democratic forces, the umbrella group that is kurdish lead
that the sdf will also co—operate with this cease—fire. more on this in the programme. let's take a closer look at boris johnson's deal. here is the 64 pages of the protocol text — this will replace parts of the original withdrawal agreement — something the eu said wouldn't happen. in terms of what's in it, bbc reality check team has broken it down on the bbc website. the vast majority is the same as theresa may's deal — but there are changes. the whole of the uk will leave the eu customs union, meaning all of the uk will be involved in future trade deals the uk makes. gone is the irish backstop which kept the uk in the eu's customs union until a new trade deal with the eu was agreed.
instead, to avoid a hard border on the island of ireland, there's a legal customs border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland — but in practice the customs border will be in the irish sea — and goods will be checked at ports in northern ireland. christian fraser is live in brussels. it is fairly complicated but in political terms, this appears to be the only option borisjohnson had left if you wanted to get a deal that he could take back to westminster. yes, because the backstop had been defeated three times in the house of commons and they were never going to vote for that and when he took on the job, he said the backstop has to go. the
insurance policy under all circumstances and while that was in place, the uk was worried that it would be trapped in perpetuity in the eu customs area and with the eu customs regulation, that is gone and it is no longer an insurance policy, the dual customs arrangement that is in place now as part of the infrastructure if it is passed. it will exist while the uk in the eu negotiate a future trade agreement, northern ireland will remain de fa cto northern ireland will remain de facto in the eu customs union with in the uk customs union, so it is a very different construct and listening tonight to some of the brexit, brexiteers now house of commons, the conservatives like the european research group, it looks like brexit, it smells like brexit for them and they are inclined to back it. you have a few details drawn by, this deal was set and
northern ireland apart from the rest of the uk when it comes to customs and some other youth eu regulations. it also gives northern ireland a chance to vote on the proposed status, they'll come after four yea rs status, they'll come after four years and involve a simple majority float in the irish assembly, an assembly that is not sitting at the moment, assuming that is resolved, if the assembly gives its consent, the arrangement can continue but if not, the arrangement from the new deal... it goes on to say... now, what those recommendations would be, we do not know. but to be clear, there will only be six years down there will only be six years down the track, four years and then the northern irish assembly could say no, we do not want to carry it on and then another two years where eve ryo ne and then another two years where everyone can consider what to do and
then we would have to see what arrangement has been negotiated. it is worth reiterating that boris johnson had to move along the way to get this deal. there's going to be a customs border in the irish sea, just have a listen to what he told the du p conference last year. you will have to leave northern ireland behind as an economic semi colony of the eu. behind and we would be damaging the fabric of the union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between great britain and northern ireland. on top of those extra regulatory checks down the irish sea that are already envisaged in the withdrawal agreement. now i have to tell you, no british conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement. but such an arrangement is within
this brexit deal. and he has held that line throughout much of the negotiations, including during the conservative leadership contest earlier this year. but it's notjust borisjohnson who's changed tune. donald tusk and jean claudejuncker have been trumpeting the new deal today. but listen to them injune. we are open for talks when it comes to the deliberation on the uk euro future relationship if the position of the united kingdom on where to evolve. but the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation. concerning brexit was nothing new, nothing new because we repeated unanimously that there will be no renegotiation after the withdrawal agreement. christian fraser, brussels. helped me with one point. the time limit come the lack of a time limit in the backstop is a huge issue for the brexiteers. we now have the backstop gone and replaced with a new plan for the northern irish assembly has a vote in four years.
if he does vote to leave the planned arrangements, is that not a form of time limit it if it is, is that a big eu climb down from its previous position? strictly speaking, it is. because there will be a two year cooling off period what happens at the end of that two—year cooling off period if there is no agreement, you can imagine that the hard border comes back. there is the sleight—of—hand from the european union perspective where it requires a simple majority, so longest is sitting. so sinn fein would walk away and it's not in place then things discontinued the way they are and so, in a sense, they have consent, but in a sense they do not. they go into this arrangement without a vote and if there was a transition taken up to 2020, another two years of transition and then the four years we get to the consent, it
could be into 2026 before northern ireland has a say in for the dp, thatis ireland has a say in for the dp, that is just not acceptable and that is white they are not going to vote for. one of the thigh will be around the timing and it seems like a hundred years ago, but 24 hours ago we we re hundred years ago, but 24 hours ago we were told all of this needs to be translated 27 times and that there isa translated 27 times and that there is a whole lot of administration that needs to be done in order to have these deadlines now it's on foot from the eu perspective is that the house of commons were to line and the rest would follow. which you heard early in the programme was that they are going to wait and see what happens when the house of commons, if he gets ratified on saturday, very big if, they would get down to business within a week and of course they feel that they could ratify it reasonably quickly because been kept the loop. let me bring ina because been kept the loop. let me bring in a brussels correspondent. good to see you. we have spoken a
lot today if it is not passed, would it be an extension and i keep asking everybody with their picking up. because i got different answers from different people today, what do you think? i think there will be an extension if it was asked and that isa extension if it was asked and that is a big if. we know that the prime minister, if he does not want to ask foran minister, if he does not want to ask for an extension. it is to imagine them doing it but let's say he has to do it for whatever reason. —— hard. when he can do at that time is to have a general election, is it simply to transcribe some legal text or have a specific referendum and i think member states, the 27 would probably end up granting it. i have not heard from a single diplomat that their country feels strongly against one scapula it is crucially important because we say, we have a brexit deal. this is only be divorce
pa rt brexit deal. this is only be divorce part the uk leaving the european union leads to years of negotiation and trade arrangement we heard from philip saying that look, if the uk thinks is going to be a super aggressive competitor, cutting regulations, taking business away from european union, it can forget about full access. that's right. the idea of a level playing field which isa idea of a level playing field which is a phrase that is thrown around a lot simply means largely the play by the same rules may comes to the standards of goods. i think that british consumers also are interested in the goods that they consume being of a certain standard, because it is a standard that they have been used to for all of these years. but what is really interesting to me is that the prime minister has spoken a lot about expending fewer resources in brussels and having fewer people come here for meetings from westminster and in fact, the discussions for the future relationship is going to be massive. we are going to have british officials here talking about all of
the facets being done again from scratch. it can be a truly creative period but there is no doubt. it's on the emissaries here. because they are outside working on the relationship. we heard from an irish american talking about the trade deal, the big pressure borisjohnson and him saying, do not forget, if there is no deal, there's no chance ofa there is no deal, there's no chance of a trade deal going to congress. you need a deal. it speaks to the strength of the irish caucus. if it has some of its affairs in order, whether it's the european union, otherwise borisjohnson or the next prime minister is going to be on the back for negotiating from a position of weakness on that all—important trade deal with the us. thank you, as ever for that. yes. that is very
important point for boris johnson. he talks about this trade deal with the united states, that north american caucuses very powerful in congress and they need this deal in order to get a deal with donald trump. thank you for your guest from the new york times and against what is interesting to point out today is that there is no that borisjohnson has —— no doubt that he is kind of political achievement, but we also must remember that we were on air a few months back when theresa may announced she had a deal the european union which was enthusiastic, but her deal was taken back to westminster and boris johnson isjust back to westminster and boris johnson is just beginning that process , johnson is just beginning that process, which is why a lot of people here are the uk are already trained on saturday because it is quite hard to overstate the importance of saturday to the long—term future of the uk. and the numbers are looking tight.
here's the prime minister. when mps of all parties look at this deal, they will see the merit of supporting it, getting brexit done on october the 31st and honouring the mandate of the people, honouring the promises that were made repeatedly about parliamentarians to the people. here'sjohn pienaar with the numbers. a plan that pleased everyone was never going to happen. he calls this when an excellent deal, but for remainders, it is the worst yet. though for remainers, it's the worst yet. it takes mainland britain out of the eu trading bloc and allows the whole uk to strike trade deals, which they fear would leave us worse off than in the eu. for the dup and their staunch unionist allies, the big sticking point‘s been how to keep northern ireland inside those trade
deals while avoiding customs checks north or south that could inflame old tensions. the dup doesn't like it, but the new plan is for an east—west customs border. all north—south trade would be duty—free — no checks or taxes. but the dup hates the plan for checks on all goods from the british mainland to northern ireland. why? well, take a british car, say. customs would need to know if it's for sale in northern ireland with no taxes to pay, or if it's heading for the republic and into the eu, because if some components came from outside the eu, there could be taxes to pay brussels. so with northern ireland being treated differently, the deal accepts the need for agreement from its politicans. a simple majority vote at the still—suspended stormont assembly could decide to tear up the plan and let northern ireland be treated the same as the rest of the uk. the dup think it's better to have a majority of both them and nationalists which would allow them to in effect have a veto. in the commons, the numbers must surely make boris johnson's head spin.
to win a vote, he needs 320 votes. if the dup's ten mps won't back him, some of his 287 tories would likely rebel too. so the pm needs votes from among labour mps and some former tory independents. and there's another big complication. remain parties like the lib dems and snp could soonjoin mps on both sides in a big push for another brexit referendum. and ifjeremy corbyn tells labour to back a so—called people's vote, it could make the government's job a lot harder. let's return to the other big story in the programme — turkey and the us have agreed a five day cease—fire. that's after turkish president recep tayyip erdogan met with the us vice president mike pence earlier in ankara. mike pence earlier in ankara. also at the meeting, the us secretary of state. there is a great deal of work to do
in the region, but this effort tonight accepts the conditions for the successful resolution of this particular piece which created an enormous risk the real risk of instability and working among side president trump to benefit turkey a great deal. at home, donald trump has been under severe political pressure over his earlier decision to pull us forces back from the area, a decision which opened to the door to turkey, to move in. on wednesday, the house of representatives voted at home, donald trump has been under severe political pressure over his earlier decision to pull us forces back from the area, a decision which opened to the door to turkey, to move in. on wednesday, the house of representatives voted overwhelmingly for a bill condemning the move. 129 of mr trump's own party supported the measure. the speaker of the house nancy pelosi also met with the president yesterday. the democrats said donald trump had a meltown.
the president returned this accusation in this tweet and shared this image which many democrats are now calling iconic. mr trump's supporters are using other words. i spoke earlier tojulia manchester a reporterfor the news website, the hill in washington dc. the general reaction is that they essentially gave turkey what they wa nted essentially gave turkey what they wanted in the seas —— cease—fire. that is exactly what turkey wanted, you're also seeing what president trump is saying about going back and talking to his people by the recent us indictment of a turkish bank. turkish officials are saying they got exa ctly turkish officials are saying they got exactly what they wanted in your sink critics of the president being very critical of the cease—fire right now. help me understand the criticism because it is looking like the president is going to struggle
to exert influence over president erdogan but he does not know how the cease—fire works. erdogan but he does not know how the cease-fire works. there was a lot of criticism that president trump was struggling to exert that influence over president erdogan. but right now, the president, it seems based on what we have seen in this agreement, that they have given turkey quite a bit of what they wa nted turkey quite a bit of what they wanted and i think there are critics right now that are very concerned about president trump's ties to turkey and his treatment of the kurdish people and forces. remember, this entire scenario has had a lot of us allies scratching their heads thinking that if president trump is doing this to the kurds right now, which ally is the united states going to walk away from next in the trump administration. the democratic unionist party in theory has a working relationship in parliament boris johnson
and the conservatives. this deal puts that under severe strain — the dup won't support it. at least not yet. to understand their concerns, we need to look at irish history. ireland became independent from britain in 1922. but even before then the island had been divided into two, the north with a majority protestant population, the south with a catholic majority. and when independence arrived, northern ireland stayed part of the uk. many of the catholics who live there would rather northern ireland became part of the republic — you'll hear that referred to as the nationalist community. the unionist community — which is primarily protestant — believes northern ireland should remain part of the uk. these differences sparked the so—called "the troubles" — 30 years of violence in northern ireland. this was the scene of an explosion in belfast. the violence largely ended with the good friday agreement in 1998 — which is also referred to as the belfast agreement.
fast forward to today and the dup is the largest unionist party in northern ireland. 0f borisjohnson's deal it syas: "this drives a coach and horses through the professed sanctitity of the belfast agreement." drjennifer cassidy teaches at the university of oxford — and she used to be a diplomat for the irish government — she's in oxford. thank you for your time. are you surprised that the dp is taking this position? no, not at all. and the clue is in the name. the unionist party. their reason to be, their mission statement is to keep aligned with the union at all cost. so anything that was differentiation between them and the union was not going pass of the du p —— dup. are you surprised that the conservatives
are moving away from that but the dup won't? not at all. there has been a ranting narrative within the republic of ireland for a number of yea rs now republic of ireland for a number of years now that the dup and in particular, when we saw them aligned with theresa may's government that this was an unrequited love so to speak and that the du p were longing for a union that had a relationship that was never really to reach, and today really signalled that boris johnson in the conservative party we re johnson in the conservative party were willing and waiting to get a period in brexit done at any cost and that cost we saw was the dup. and you think the commitment to the union and its current form is as strong as is northern ireland than 20 or 30 years ago? i think in the
last three years, we have seen this position and we can relate this directly to brexit and that we can see a direct correlation here and in a number of pre—referendum moves, we have seen a number of party members who define themselves, if they did stand with the union or northern ireland but really start to differentiate themselves more with societal issues and economic issues and less to do with this unionist republican divisively saw stop brexit changed this course we saw much hardening and much more hardening of the position of the union in this alignment and the raison d'etre of the union. thank you very much indeed you are the last guest on today's programme as we look ahead to the next two days, there are two crucial questions. can borisjohnson there are two crucial questions. can boris johnson convince there are two crucial questions. can borisjohnson convince a majority of mps to support his brexit deal and will the kurds move out of territory that they previously held in order
to meet the demands of their turkish american cease—fire. we will cover it all here from the bbc news room. hello. when it comes to autumn weather, it doesn't have to be how it has been now for several weeks — so wet. it can be much quieter — misty, frosty mornings. there was a hint of that sort of autumn weather coming at the start of next week because for a change, there will be high pressure on the scene just extending its influence across the british isles. but as we'll find out, it may not last too long. right now, we're still in that other sort of autumn weather, very changeable. some sunshine but shower clouds around on thursday. that's because low pressure is close by around friday and indeed over the weekend as it moves right across the british isles. and that means sunshine and showers again friday. plenty of showers down the eastern side for a change to begin the day. so they will move away, showers across northern scotland
compared with thursday. temperatures a degree or so down and gusty winds is still with the showers particularly into wales in south—west england. a low pressure then tracking right across the british isles at the start of the weekend. so, right at the centre of that, winds are going to be lighter than they have been around and it's a northerly, northern scotland. so, it will feel colder here as this area of rain pushes further south across scotland. may be to parts of northern ireland and northern england. scattered showers with sunshine in between elsewhere and not too many showers around parts of southern england come the afternoon. still around 15 celsius here. but more of us by sunday getting into the cool breeze around the area of low pressure as it moves out into the north sea. still with a few showers close to that this time than through parts of eastern scotland and northeast england in particular. some sunny spells, a chance for showers elsewhere, but notice the arrows coming from the north as the low pressure moves away so it starts to feel cooler more widely on sunday. and as we start monday with this area of high pressure, there could be a touch of frost in places more especially
across the northern half of the uk. maybe if you've fogged patches so to clear and there is still a chance for catching a shower or two towards parts of the east and south of england on monday but most will be dry. though with a good deal of cloud around and that is for many of us temperatures just around 11, 12 celsius. that area of high pressure clings on for some of us tuesday but low pressure well to the north of us will bring some outbreaks of rain with a stronger wind the further north you are in scotland but a large part of the uk stays dry for another day on tuesday. it sounds weird to say "dry". we haven't said that for a while. and temperatures may just start to creep up a little bit for some of us. so, that's how we are starting next week with high pressure looking mainly dry, maybe a touch of frost overnight, a few fog patches. but then as we go deeper on into next week, it looks like low pressure is coming back to pay another visit. we're looking at the jet jet stream pattern, this big dip in thejet stream will come close to the uk. nestled in that is low pressure
but there's some uncertainty about where the low pressure will sit and therefore how much of the uk will see wet weather from it and whether it will come with a mile there were quite cool air. it is partially due to the pattern of the jet stream as we widen the view and look elsewhere across the atlantic and look how amplified or wavy the jet stream is. partially this way because of the influence of the remnants of typhoon hagibis moving across the northern hemisphere. but when you see a wavyjet stream pattern like this, it does inject greater uncertainty as you look further into the future. so the favourite thinking is that low pressure will be close by again later next week. but we still have to see just how many of us will get the wet weather from it. and that's your latest.
tonight at ten, we're at the eu summit in brussels, where a new brexit deal has been agreed between the uk and the european union. boris johnson shakes hands on what he calls a great deal, which allows the uk to take back control — but he still needs mps at westminster to approve it. i hope very much now, speaking to elected representatives that my fellow mps in westminster do now come together to get brexit done, to get this excellent deal over the line. he wants to count on the support of northern ireland's dup, but so far they're not in favour and nor is labour. as it stands, we cannot support this deal and will oppose it in
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