tv Dateline London BBC News October 4, 2020 2:30am-3:01am BST
at the walter reed medical centre for a few more days to come. so, i just want to tell you that i'm starting to feel good. you don't know, over the next period of a few days, i guess that's the real test, so we will be seeing what happens over those next couple of days. and in other news, despite international calls for calm, fighting has intensified in the disputed region of nagorno—karabakh with reports of civilians being targeted. armenia's president says the country is facing a decisive moment as it battle azerbaijan for control of the region. now on bbc news, dateline london
hello, welcome to dateline london 2020 will go down in the history books as one of the most dramatic any of us have lived through. news of donald trump ‘s covid—19 diagnosis was greeted with shock around the world. some on twitter initially asked if it was a hoax. once the facts were established, the narrative change. how will he respond? how might that change his perception of mask wearing and what does all this to the campaign and election? someone who knows what it is like to be a victim of the pandemic while
governing a country is boris johnson. as the final brexit headline grows closer, he is in talks with ursula von der leyen. how much each side trusts the other will be key. andi trusts the other will be key. and 1 million people confirmed to have died from covid. as the northern hemisphere heads into winter, how bleak is it and is there any optimism in the numbers? thank you to all my guests today. i will kick off with the story which has galvanised global news cycles. president trump is not the first us president to suffer ill help. woodrow wilson, kennedy, ronald reagan but is
still highly unpredictable —— covid. and we are just a month away from us elections. how vulnerable is donald trump? president trump is in the most vulnerable category or approaching it. anybody over 65 is more at risk of becoming seriously ill if they get covid—19. the chances of death increased substantially stop he is 7a. the death rate for 75—year—old and over is one in 25. that still leaves a lot of people who pull through, we should emphasise that. he also has a high bmi and patients who are overweight and obese are more vulnerable and also men are more vulnerable than women. he is ina
are more vulnerable than women. he is in a vulnerable category but we should keep stressing that, going into hospital does not in any way mean he does not have a good chance of recovering quickly. give me a sense of what you are hearing from the us. they are politically government to a degree but this has been a real shock. it is the october surprise people often talk about when it comes to american presidential elections. there are days reacting with compassion and sympathy, and those this is some kind of karma or poeticjustice for a president who has played down this pandemic. on a thursday night, a few hours before he announced his diagnosis, he was seenin announced his diagnosis, he was seen ina announced his diagnosis, he was seen in a pre—recorded video at a dinnersaying seen in a pre—recorded video at a dinner saying the end of the academic was in sight. —— pandemic. this has completely
undermined that message he has been hammering, the claims that the us has turned the corner and that this will be behind us sooi'i and that this will be behind us soon and that the administration had done a wonderfuljob even administration had done a wonderful job even though administration had done a wonderfuljob even though we have the highest number of deaths and infections in the world. international leaders including angela merkel sent their good wishes to the president. how has reaction beenin president. how has reaction been in germany and across europe? it has been a great shockin europe? it has been a great shock in germany as well because it has added another uncertainty to the state of the world we a re uncertainty to the state of the world we are in where nothing can be predicted anymore. this event appends the american election and throws it totally open and you cannot, as a politician like angela merkel or anyone else, it is an
ongoing narrative. you are shooting at moving targets from a moving platform. we are hoping, of course, that the president will not deteriorate in his health and something of a normal election campaign can be resumed but, on balance, as you look at all the factors, this is probably unlikely. we will have a situation where maybe the two vice presidential candidates will come to the fore. and change the political narrative but everything is up in the airand narrative but everything is up in the air and unknowable. narrative but everything is up in the air and unknowablelj actually would slightly dissented from that. in the immediate term this has thrown the campaign for immediate term this has thrown the campaignfora immediate term this has thrown the campaign for a loop. the second debate between joe the campaign for a loop. the second debate betweenjoe biden and donald trump looks in doubt, in less then two weeks
time. the mid— campaign events donald trump would hold have been put on hold for a while but the overall campaign is an open question whether this would make much difference in the overall outcome. if you look at polls, for example the compact january and september in terms of the standing of the two candidates, it is remarkable how stable the vote rs remarkable how stable the voters view, particularly donald trump, have been. he's the only president never have cleared 50% in his approval rating yet at the same time, his base of 40% has remained remarkably strong and absolutely behind him. if you go further back, 2017, in a theoretical matchup between joe biden and donald trump, the
lead joe biden had then is the same as in that file three years ago. we have unencumbered president going for the election and in the situation almost always it is a referendum on that president and this is a president about whom most voters have already made up their mind. far a catastrophic turn of events, in terms of his medical condition, it still remains to be seen how much of an effect this will have on the election outcome. but i would like to act to it though, which makes me more uncertain about the whole story, is that the voters, as it were opinion could change on how they behave. joe biden has done something remarkably sensible like calling of all partisan electioneering. he
used horrible lines like shut up, man during the debate which was a statement too far and america has only one office, the president is both the monarch and a political era and there is an aura about the office, whatever you think about the holder, you cannot denigrate the mystique of the office and there is an aura you have to respect. joe biden is doing better. whereas donald trump will be quiet for some time to come. the psychological mix of the standing of between the two candidates may change in the eye of the voters. obviously the uk went through emotional rollercoaster as we watched our prime minister at the start of the pandemic
initially getting it, looking 0k, initially getting it, looking ok, and then being admitted to hospital and in icu. a lot of comment about whether that has had an impact on borisjohnson personally in terms of his political outlook, his willingness to take risk. we could see an effect on resident trumpet as well? yes, there we re trumpet as well? yes, there were criticisms of boris johnson early on for not chairing key meetings of the emergency committee handling the early stages of the pandemic and appearing to be standoffish. that was probably denied by downing street but having had the experience of being seriously ill, a feeling he came out with a different appreciation of the risks of covid—19 and an absolute determination to ensure it did not get out of control again and restrictive measures were taken. whether
and restrictive measures were ta ken. whether it and restrictive measures were taken. whether it changes donald trump ‘s perspective you will have to wait and see. less was known about covid—19. he was known about covid—19. he was in intensive care 2a hours after going to hospital. then president trump appears to be at the moment having gone there asa at the moment having gone there as a precautionary measure. these things can change very fast. so much comment about legitimacy about how the campaign now runs. we are due to see the vice residential debate. will that be pressure onjoe biden to pull back and ultimately how will any decision be made about the worst possible outcome like delaying the outcome. joe biden has tried to rise above it. everybody 's thoughts and prayers are with the president
and biden has pointed out he does not wish him any ill will. but he's still going to appear at campaign stops, that is not halting nor are the super pacs behind lobby groups behind him. —— packed. the president may not be at these events, but those who are his proxies and the organisations who are trying to get him elected are still going full steam ahead but in terms of postponing the election, donald trump banded around the possibility a couple of months ago saying that the pandemic isa of months ago saying that the pandemic is a whole warranted a delay and even members of his party cold water on that idea. there is no easy mechanism for that to happen. the constitution sent the fact that congress is in charge of when the election takes place and
thatis the election takes place and that is now set by law. you would have to have an extraordinary legislative action for that to happen so i do not see any kind of delay to the election taking place. what might happen is that, if donald trump should lose, he certainly has an excuse to say, it is because i got sick. i was on the comeback trail and i then fell ill but i think election will still go ahead. these claims of illegitimacy coming from the trump team already coming. is it unlikely election will be delayed and what if god forbid president trump becomes severely ill? constitutionally this cannot happen unless the major step is taken to change the law but the law demands an election on the date set now so thatis election on the date set now so that is not going to change. the question is, of course, if
trump deteriorates severely in his health then it is not so much a question of a delay the election but the two vice president to be will play a greater role. if the president is incapacitated, vice president pence will have to ta ke president pence will have to take over. it is sort of a regency model like you have in britain. for example george iii in the early 90s century, the next in line will take over as regent. so i can envisage a situation where, for some time, before the election even, that is to say if the health situation deteriorates for president trump, mike pence might come forward and take hold of the reins of government for the time being. hold of the reins of government forthe time being. we hold of the reins of government for the time being. we will see how long that would last but he will be called upon as a regent
to carry on the business of government. i imagine there will be great reluctance for that to happen from the white house. ahead of this vp debate, how do both these figures bowl publicly across the us? —— poll. in generalthe publicly across the us? —— poll. in general the vice presidency is not considered that important. when the joe biden had his vice presidential election for barack obama, there is widespread belief that he helped pull barack obama out of alone. was able to help revive barack of alone. was able to help revive ba rack obama of alone. was able to help revive barack obama 's campaign. kamala harris is a sharp questioner, an experienced debater. these are
two familiar sparring partners. there will be some fireworks and people pay attention to that but i did not know that anyone will be looking at that debate thinking of mike pence necessarily as the president in waiting because the constitutional mechanisms, when it comes to a candidate, immediately say that he becomes a candidate should president trump die before the election so trump die before the election so people will be watching it with interest but still, the main event is between the joe biden and donald trump. we believe that there for now, because obviously it is very much in flux, and because obviously it is very much influx, and i because obviously it is very much in flux, and i think regardless of politics everybody does wish the president and his wife good health as fast as possible. it almost went unnoticed this week, but the eu moved to sue the uk as it breached the internal markets bill, overwriting the withdrawal treaty. this week in boris johnson is having a virtual meeting, talking online to a social event lien as the brexit
clock to the end of the year draws closer. —— shall abandon leiden. thomas, how would you describe relations between these two leaders, as far as we know? well, relations are coming toa know? well, relations are coming to a crunch, as it were, so they are having to between the two of them find a mode of talking and solving the conundrum that we have found the negotiations in. the fact that they are going to talk and this is going to be a very essential sort of meeting, albeit a virtual, it means that there is hope in the hour, because when you look at the outstanding issues, it isjust about the playing field, about government aid, and fisheries. now, fisheries is, in terms of gdp, a very small matter indeed. both in the economy of great britain and the economy of the eu. with one exception.
that is president macron of france, who is the elephant in the room. he is looking at his re—election in 2022 and he doesn't want to stand before his people and say that he sold out the fisheries rights of french fishermen. so there has to bea french fishermen. so there has to be a compromise. that is the keyissue to be a compromise. that is the key issue here. britain is proposing a zonal attachment, a notice vivendi, by which you have a transition period of three years in which both sides can get used to the new quota of fish that they are allowed to fish in europe. —— modus vivendi. but i don't think the fisheries issue is going to be the one that will rack four yea rs of the one that will rack four years of negotiations. both sides cannot afford to fail in this dialogue. think of the coronavirus, the damage it does to the economy, both on the continent and both in britain, you don't want to shoulder
another crisis like the brexit no deal, to add to the economic, the huge economic problems that both sides have. the european union, i call it a european union of covid, we are struggling with government responsibility. so is britain. i think for that reason the covid issue is going to drive us covid issue is going to drive us towards a solution and towards a deal before the end of the year, that is my prediction. well, as much as is made of a us—uk trade deal, boris anti—trump seeming to have good personal relations, but ifjoe biden comes in but could also change the whole dynamic between the us and the uk governments? —— boris and trump. that's right. i think the us-uk trump. that's right. i think the us—uk trade deal was actually on hold at the moment. it is not what is in the forefront of the minds of the leaders and governments at the moment, obviously it is the
election, and then it will depend on who emerges victorious from that election. trump has promised the uk deal, but they have been some reservations on behalf of his administration, and he will also be looking to see the kind of economic deals he can cut in other parts of the world. sol wouldn't imagine that the trade deal with the british is going to be top of the priority list of eithera to be top of the priority list of either a biden administration or trump mark two. can i quickly bring in hugh on this as well? this applies to all governments, all government departments. the civil service, the people behind the scenes have been drawn into covid from other departments. is it likely that time on brexit and other matters would have been squeezed? i think so. this domestic crisis for the uk, covid—19, is the biggest that has been seen in generations for any government, then you've got the issue of brexit as well, and the exact terms of departure with all the problems we have just been hearing about. whitehall, the centre of
the civil service and advisors for the british government, they are pretty exhausted there, would be huge challenge of covid—19, having to deal with restrictions on people's everyday lives, get that right, look at the spread of the virus and how the nhs copes, plus these talks on brexit, they are huge challenges and i think the whole government machine is extremely stretched. ok, back to covid, i'm afraid. 1 million deaths were recorded around the world this week from coronavirus, with countless more not diagnosed. there are of course fears of a recession this winter to, and the health and financial risks have been the core tension for governments around the world. here, borisjohnson was criticised from both sides, those wanting more fewer restrictions, and for failing to steer a clear path. but is that fundamentally unfair, given constantly changing evidence and the understandable dilemma at the heart of all these decisions? hugh, the numbers in the uk, first of
all, we have seen this 1 million number, which did sort of feel like a bit of a landmark, didn't it, and of course, i'm told more that we don't count? yes, first of all, you have got the way of measuring deaths. the official account each day of the british government is deaths within 28 days of somebody contracting covid—19, it doesn't cover those who pick it up earlier. it doesn't cover a certain number of deaths in the community. so there is that issue. and what we don't know issue. and what we don't know is the full extent of people who've got seriously ill and have survived because they didn't medical treatment, because the national health service was so focused, understandably, covid—19, back in march, april, may, and clearing hospitals to allow space for covid—19 patients. others, who are just worried about going into treatment, therefore they missed out on crucial diagnostics and so on. and there is a growing view that you could almost get to a point of having as many deaths from people who didn't have
covid—19, but other causes, which were access to what you would normally get, access deaths is what we want to see in terms of the data, and that will take a little time to actually be fully appraised. henry chu, president trump's position has of course put covid right back front and centre, if it had ever gone away. we know 200,000 deaths, many more affected in the us? absolutely. and also, just looking around the world, one remarkable figure that stuck out to me this past week or two is the fact that in india, which is now number two in terms of the total number of infections, it went from 3 million and 22 6 million in barely a month. now, that is a remarkable figure. some of that is due to greater testing, but just the fact that you can have that kind of a job, in so short a time, shows us that this current advice is not going away anytime soon, and we are indeed, in the northern hemisphere, moving into winter season and so there has been talk of what they call a
twindemic, with the coronavirus but also the usual influenza season coming around. what is interesting is that some of the data coming up from southern hemisphere countries that have already gone through winter with the coronavirus and the flu, it is actually shown that in places like south africa and australia, flu incidents has actually been quite low, and thatis actually been quite low, and that is because, of our theorising, but the same kinds of preventative measures you would take against the coronavirus, wearing masks, keeping socially distanced, are of course effective against the flu as well. so as much as people can actually stick to these guidelines, but can also keep the flu infections down. we are still in a very tricky period with this coronavirus. we have not turned the corner at the end is not inside, the trump has said. i would say that one bright spot does seem to be the possibility in coming months of a vaccine of some sort stop its effectiveness we won't know for some time to come, but there might be glimmers of hope, at least, in
our future. thomas, what are the numbers are giving us any glimmer of hope, here is the question that some will be looking at, whether there was a slight old and the rate of growth, certainly in the uk, this week? just to add to what henryjust said, this week? just to add to what henry just said, and this week? just to add to what henryjust said, and we are all discussing the perilous situation the world is in, in view of this uncanny illness, it is doubly important that we not allow our economies to deteriorate even more than they normally have. the economy of the world, the world economy, is in dire straits, and if we allow our divisions and political fevers like brexit to make it more difficult for business to act downs to operate in europe, in this case britain and the eu, i think nobody will forgive the leaders, in this case, boris johnson and the european leaders in brussels, to have not seized the moment and come
to an agreement. we need to focus on the economic well— being of the focus on the economic well—being of the world. focus on the economic well— being of the world. lots of people are going to be threatened by unemployment. there is going to be misery spread all over the place, unless we really move forward where we can. and with brexit i think we can do that, but it must be done, we cannot afford to allow more descent to make the economic businesses of the world and our country is more difficult than it already is. —— dissent. gentlemen, we will leave it there, at this very dramatic point, it feels, in all our countries' positions and our futures. thank all our countries' positions and ourfutures. thank you all our countries' positions and our futures. thank you so much, thomas gallagher, henry chu and hugh pym, thank you very much indeed stop that is ita very much indeed stop that is it a dateline london this weekend. i'm back at the same time next week. bye for now.
hello there. it has been a thoroughly wet night up and down the country and we continue with more rain this morning, maybe across western and southern areas, where we're likely to see more transport disruption and further flooding in places. it's here where the winds will be strongest as well. all tied in with this area of low pressure. you can see where the isobars are closer together across western and south—western areas, and this is where we will have that weather front as well, bringing that heavy, persistent rain. the amber warning across south—west england and wales is likely to persist up until around midday today, so we could see further flooding here through the morning period, whereas further north, the amber warning across eastern scotland should expire early this morning as the rain begins to pivot away and push towards the west. so we should see a bit of brightness appearing here as the day wears on. the heaviest of the rain
will tend to be across northern ireland and down into wales, south—west england, across the south and south—east as well. even here the rain should start to move away as we head on into the afternoon. central areas, some lighter winds, sunshine around. temperatures reach around 15 or 16, and it will be quite chilly across the south—east. into sunday night, it looks like those rain bands begin to spread away from the uk. we will continue to see lots of showers spiralling around the centre of the load. lengthy clear spells in between and when that happens it could potentially warm in one or two spots, generally 8—10 for most. low pressure still with us as we head on into the new working week for monday. it will be slowly filling, which means it will be gradually weakening through the day, so conditions should slowly improve as we move through the week. for monday, again, we will see scattered showers around, the winds not quite as strong, some of the showers that develop could be on heavy side again.
some could merge together to produce long spells of rain. in the sunshine we could see 15 or 16 degrees, and that is where we could see some of the heaviest of the showers. as we go out of monday, i will show you our area of low pressure, beginning to drift north. it opens a north—westerly wind across the uk which will drive in a few showers but we should also see good spells of sunshine as well. it's really a slow improvement as we move through the week. that low pressure system moving away. by the end of the week, high pressure will start to build in, so that will settle things down. main event is between the joe
biden and donald trump. welcome to bbc news. i'm james reynolds. our top stories: donald trump says he's doing well in hospital where he's being treated for coronavirus but expects to remain there for the time being. you don't know, over the next period of a few days, i guess that's the real test, so we will be seeing what happens over those next couple of days. meanwhile, as more senior republicans test positive, we ask — was last week's unveiling of the president's supreme court nominee at the white house a super—spreader event? and in other news, civilian areas come under fire as the conflict in the disputed region of nagorno—karabakh intensifies. at least people are killed and more than 30 missing after storm alex hits parts of south—eastern france and northern italy.