Skip to main content

tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  January 14, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EST

1:00 am
>> judgment day for mario draghi . and the european central bank's next move on stimulus could hang on their word. europe's growth will lack behind the u.s. this year. that is the latest projection from the world bank as it cuts its outlook for global expansion. >> and copper plunging again. the commodity route deepens. ♪
1:01 am
>> hello. welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. >> i'm anna edwards. >> i'm manus cranny. >> his fate lies in the european court of justice and his opinion on omt or outright monetary transaction. >> the ecb first introduced the concept in 2012. enabling purchases of sovereign debt in secondary markets. they are considering whether they convene eu law. this meaning the court will deliver its opinion. >> the court opinion is nonbinding. if it goes against omt, mario draghi might wind his options on easing in the euro zone are narrower than ever. it is a big day for the ecb president. for more, hans nichols has
1:02 am
traveled. you are back in berlin. this opinion really is quite important for him and the future of the eurozone. >> we will see. good morning, manus. he'll put on his lawyers cap and sifting through this opinion. i suspect he will look for any guidance that may be construed that could be applied in -- and translated to quantitative easing. restrictions. what sorts of limit would be placed potentially on bond buying programs for sovereign assets? this is key. the fed announced it. they had specific conditions when connotative easing would end. -- quantitative easing would end. that is what we're looking for today.
1:03 am
how clearly the restrictions placed on omt that could be applied to quantitative easing. we are in this position because the german constitutional court referred this case to the european court of justice. they set a good have veered into economic policy -- they said it could have veered into economic policy. it would potentially violate eu rules. but we get today is an advisory opinion. he is a spanish jurist. the chief justice on the spanish constitutional court. then a final ruling from the full panel of the european court of justice. that may be final. that is going or waiting for. today we can a good idea of what direction they may be heading. >> you put into context the
1:04 am
nuances. legal nuances at play. the spanish ambassador -- gives opinion. does it typically good pro pro? -- quid pro pro? >> typically yes. the active general is a good indicator but not always. in may, we had a google case where the european court of justice, a full panel, ruled citizens have a right to be forgotten. it is not exactly final. we will have this interim period. it is in that time that we will see whether or not this opinion had any sort of influence. we are in this gray area. and not just try to show off.
1:05 am
it is a legal gray area. we'll go back maybe potentially to what the initial german opinion was. that opinion said omt good have been legal as long as there were restrictions. 1 -- you cannot buy unlimited bonds from a certain country. any country. that is not what anyone is talking about what quantitative. they want it spread apart you could read the constitutional case and see there is plenty of room for quantitative easing. but we have got to wait for the decision. we will be pouring over it. i suspect we will be reading and certain precincts in frankfurt as well. manus? >> hans nichols in berlin. >> the world economy will expand by 3% this year. that is down from the projection of 3.4% it gave last june. >> the u.s. economy is
1:06 am
improving. that is failing to offset disappointed prospects worldwide from europe to china. a growing divergence between the u.s. and other major economies. >> the picture slightly brighter or the developing economies. 3%. developing countries do better with expansion of 4.8%. the eurozone lacks behind at 1%. >> it doesn't make for a rosy outlook. europe faces particular challenges. falling oil prices will not be enough to stay might growth in the euro zone. >> as much as the drop in oil prices is a boost to growth, it complicates monetary policy. european policy. how they are going to move forward -- they would like to
1:07 am
have a larger balance sheet. they need to decide. i think we will see sometime soon. the inflation numbers from your will require -- from europe will require immediate attention. policies will be necessary. as with structural reforms. >> copper has plunged to a 5.5 year low. it won't be enough to display -- to supply -- >> seven minutes past 6:00. let's turn to asia. hong kong chief executive we emphasized that hong kong must carry out the 2017 elections under chinese loss.
1:08 am
his first major feature following protests that took place last year. was there anything in their to chair the students or their opponents then? -- cheer the students are their opponents then? >> we did discuss clinical reform in his speech. third annual policy speech. i'm not sure students would have been cheered by that. he basically said the hong kong has follow the basic law. that it was bound by what beijing decided. that is the nominating committee -- he also said that hong kong must decide. do they want one man, one vote? or do they want to abandon developments in electoral reform altogether? he is saying if hong kong does
1:09 am
it come together, they will be a vote in 2017. it will revert back to take that out of people's hands. they will go back to how election committee puts forward and votes for the chief executive as the methods that were put in place when he was chief executive. they stated beijing should be in charge of setting the rules for this policy. this is what he had to say. >> we have to be wary of suggestions that deviate from the basic law. discussions on constitutional development over the past year or so have revealed that many failed to properly understand the relationship between central authorities and [indiscernible] >> he also said that students
1:10 am
needed to be guided toward a better understanding of the relationship between china and hong kong. he also focused on feedback into the general discontent and unhappiness, which may have been behind protests. one of the key once is housing -- key ones is housing. make land available for use in the development -- and redevelopment. he also addresses minimum wage. they will rage that -- raise that. and welfare accuracy groups have been containing -- containing --
1:11 am
campaigning. and one last thing -- things like welfare. turn to make -- encouraging to go into the workplace. back to you. >> thank you. >> let's take a look at other stories. let's start with a big deal that could be in the making. considering a bid for vale.
1:12 am
+++ nickel business. >> elon musk said the company public will be profitable until annual sales reach half when million cars. musk says tesla is investing in growth and the new model. >> so by 2030? >> 2025. >> and amazon has hired a new director for a tv series it is creating. woody allen. new territory for both amazon and allen. he has never written a series for tv before. he says, "i have no idea how i got into this. i'm not sure where to begin." >> i'm lori price -- and rory price. the head of amazon studio. very busy on this. >> what to make of the rise of the internet? get in touch with us on twitter.
1:13 am
>> we are all there. we are all tweeting. and "the pulse." bill ackman will be here shortly after 9 a.m. >> forego proshares trust plummeted -- and coming up why go pro shares have plummeted. ♪
1:14 am
1:15 am
1:16 am
>> deutsche bank reviews its strategy in the wake of poor revenue projections. that is according to a person knowledgeable in the matter. it has been accused of making false representation. deutsche bank denies any wrongdoing. the only member of rbs executive committee likely to get a vote is a man into hard of getting rid of investors on wanted assets. that is according to a person knowledgeable of the matter. gopro plummeted 12%.
1:17 am
investors are concerned that a patent greg didn't -- that a patent granted by apple threatens gopro. >> 60 minutes pass -- 60 minutes pass 6:00 in london. -- 16 minutes past 6:00 in london. often seen as a precursor to a quantitative easing plan. thank you for coming in. >> pleasure. >> what is relevant about this? >> it is not a verdict. it is an opinion of the general. obviously it will give us a line
1:18 am
on where the court is heading. from that perspective since we know there is a debate within the ecb about this issue anything will be welcomed by mario draghi. i should say it's highly unlikely the court will say anything that would then the practice. there will be a supported judgment. >> that would be a sigh of relief. it takes me too hard facts and data. it's the least in two decades. it has dropped like a stone. quantitative easing is ostensibly priced in to the bond market. why do we care so much? >> i don't think we should. the ecb is a ready engaged in
1:19 am
quantitative easing. quantitative easing means the central bank for the minister of finance buy. the ecb is buying. what matters much more is who they buy from. in this case whether they buy sovereign debt or something else, as long as they buy it from the private sector, that is good news. it thereby directly from other banks or from the government -- if they buy directly from other banks are from the government -- that is what we have seen in that united states and japan. the reason we care is it has become invested with an almost magical aura. buying sovereign debt will be the solution. they have already achieved the results of quantitative easing.
1:20 am
narrowing the spreads. unless they boost growth, they will not have an impact. >> he had is saying that the eurozone wouldn't suffered sustained bouts of -- that it has brought money. >> yes. broad money is the bank deposits of households and nonfinancial companies. people's behaviors is very much determined by how much money they have in the form of money. if they have too little, they need to tighten it up too much they want to use that to i something for invest into some. -- to buy something or invest in something. it is perhaps still weaker than we would like it to be. over the past six months, it has grown.
1:21 am
that is actually quite healthy. much of deflation in the eurozone today is due to falling oil prices. oil prices are likely to continue to fall this year. remember once that has happened they don't have to rise to halt the deflation. they just have to stop falling and remain flat. >> what could broad money tell us then it is all about oil prices? >> broad money tells us absent oil prices -- there are signs that inflation should move back into positive territory. but we're not absent on prices. here is the point. is it good or bad deflation? what is deflation? deflation is a general and sustained fall in the overall level of prices. it is not one or two months with negative consumer prices.
1:22 am
it is a sustained fall that leads people to say i'm not going to spend today because discretionary spending, the car, the computer, they will be cheaper tomorrow. that is bad. >> that we have good deflation. >> that is when consumer prices are falling or stable over a short-term. the everyday goods that i need to buy. the toilet paper. whatever. that is cheaper. i can afford to do more things with my money. >> thank you. more after the break. ♪
1:23 am
1:24 am
1:25 am
>> welcome back to "countdown." let's talk about greece. you find evidence for a victory in the elections. >> yet. my colleague has been looking at this in details. polls have been peculiar. one is very close to achieving hundred --101 101 seats. they also get a bonus fof seats.
1:26 am
there are lots of talk. i don't want to discuss what is sensible are not. -- or not. >> inflation falling. a record low. >> as i said earlier it means that real incomes go further. unless it is sustained to a level where people are not going to buy anything today because it is cheaper to nyro yes -- cheaper tomorrow, yes it is good news. it is pretty joyful so far.
1:27 am
>> gabriel, thank you for bringing your joy to our set this morning. gabriel stein. >> coming up, the designer of a wrap dress talks to bloomberg. ♪
1:28 am
1:29 am
1:30 am
>> you are watching "countdown." let's kick it off with the yen. rising for a fourth day in a row. broke the 117 level. we haven't done that before the week before christmas. global equities lower. copper hit 2009 lows. yen is rising in all 16 major currency.
1:31 am
the best performing currency we track at bloomberg. 2% inflation in japan. hard to achieve. that is according to the finance minister. we are seeing a stronger yen. 4 week high. we saw a strengthening in real. brazil has pledged more fiscal austerity to cut their debt loads. this is the currency. real declined in 2014. this is the second most volatile currency of all the currencies we keep an eye on. keep an eye on the real. >> i'm anna edwards. these are the bloomberg top headlines.
1:32 am
delivery an opinion on whether and ecb bond buying program seen as a precursor to quantitative easing is legal. the legality of the monetary transaction program. mario draghi plans to release a qe plan later this month. the pinion comes after concerns the omt program went beyond the ecb legal mandate. the world bank cut its forecast in 2015 growth. the prospects projects the world economy will expand to percent this year. that is down from lance -- from last year's progression -- projection. his special issue of french satirical magazine is released one week after an attack that left a third of its journalists dead.
1:33 am
3 million copies of the special edition has been printed. >> let's turn our attention to fashion and the business of selling style. diane von furstenberg designer of the iconic wrap dress, spoke to bloomberg about the secret behind her success. >> i/o is -- i always was an expensive with great design and quality. that has been my dish. i will never change for that. but my product is indestructible here you could find on ebay 30-year-old dresses for the price of what you by now. >> she debuted her dress in 1972 and called it the dress that paid all my bills. customers and royalty -- she had advice first firing fashion businesses. >> you have to deliver -- for
1:34 am
aspiring fashion businesses. >> you have to deliver a great product. do less and do better. >> diane von furstenberg speaking to bloomberg. let's stay with luxury. tiffany sales disappointed. burberry expected to release sales growth for the fourth quarter. for more, we're joined by an analyst who covers luxury goods for bloomberg. hi. what are we expecting? >> a mixed sure. -- mixed picture. that really falls [indiscernible] it's from industry experts that are all around the same level.
1:35 am
we're looking at around 5%. a big discrepancy between top and bottom lines. >> that is it. they yen, where will it go? we are managing our exposure in japan. double digit growth. some are not managing. it is not all equal, is it? >> no. on a group level, they came through with the percent -- 3% currency sales. >> but other currencies focus
1:36 am
such as the russian ruble devastating for businesses. >> absolutely. some are doing well on the flip side. if we look at the industry overall -- when you look at the global view, around 20% are due to spending typically by russians. >> the punch well above the global market when traveling. >> yeah. >> this currency impact impact -- does currency impact where travel decides to go? >> if we look at what has happened with the chinese and
1:37 am
protest in hong kong -- clampdown on issues spending and mainland china. this is what japan is doing. 70% for chinese tourists at the nine-month stage. 84% in november. it is the area of choice. >> let's talk about digital. everyone talks about it. i'm fascinated. burberry has been knocked off the top spot. you talk to me -- talk to me about digital. >> if we look at digital space luxury goods -- that is only half the pace of mass-market retailers. a big catch up. everyone is talking digital.
1:38 am
only around 40% of luxury companies offer the full process of being able to purchase via a commerce. there is a lot to do. you're looking at companies. a big retail in the digital space. it runs a digital program including 30 brands. doing very well. 25% growth. 18% growth. >> which of the segments are they going to do best and worst in as we head into this year? >> accessories. jewelry. the big outperformance last year.
1:39 am
pandora. tiffany did well. >> thanks for joining us today. happy new year to you. >> 6:39 a.m. in london. let's turn to the middle east. the risks of doing business is well known to our next guest. or more on how to do business in that kind of environment, where joint or the anchor of palestine chairman -- we are joined by the bank man of of palestine chairman. >> it is a pleasure. we obviously as a bank the
1:40 am
largest palestinian bank, we established in 1960. we have seen a lot of turmoil and ups and downs over the decades. the bank has been solid and resilient and tried and tested over that period. an explosion in the grand scheme of what we have been through nothing significant. we went through a devastating war just the summer in gaza over probably -- in gaza. over probably 2000 people killed. we've seen a lot worse than that explosion. i'm here to talk about a positive story out of all of this bad news. normally news channels all over the world cover palestine. it is pretty much bad news.
1:41 am
we are here at dubai for the bank. we about to open up our first international presence through our office. we're in the final stage of the approvals and setting up our office here in hiring. that is part of the bank's strategy to reach out to a very extensive [indiscernible] population all over the world. here in dubai in other parts there is probably anywhere 250 000-300,000 palestinians and loan -- alone. we see dubai as a hub for the world as well. >> can i ask you about your home market?
1:42 am
what do you think the priority should be for the region? >> obviously we look forward to the international community. to the -- and allowing the reconstruction of gaza after the devastating war. that requires israel primarily to lift all of its restrictions which crippled the palestinian economy even before the war. i need to clarify that the palace dean economy has been -- palace economy has been -- most countries -- palestinian economy has been -- palestinians are not allowed to even use 3g
1:43 am
mobile. this is one example. the bank is obviously in a prime position to help support economic development in gaza and the west bank. we do that through our vast network of branches. we have 55 branches all over the country. 2.5 million of assets. we are very strong on lending to small and micro is mrs.. it's part of our financial inclusion strategy. one thing i want to highlight is our focus the last five years on women markets and access to finance for women. >> ok. >> in the middle east. sorry. >> i know you made an effort in employing women. i heard you blaming israel for delays in the reconstruction
1:44 am
efforts that needs to take place in gaza. the other hand, the israelis have suggested your bank has been a conduit for financing hamas. what is your relationship with hamas at that time? >> me clarify that. we are a very heavily regulated bank. we hold corporate governance and regulations. the world bank and the ifc our shareholders the bank of palestine. you've attracted a lot of investors from emerging market funds to institutions like the
1:45 am
world bank and the ifc. that is something we take great care and pride in. >> do you work with hamas? >> no. the government we work with is the palestinian authority. >> just looking at the broader economy, the fault in the oil price is something that is shifting. a lot of people thinking about where 2015 ghosts. will that bring -- 2015 goes. will that bring relief? >> we saw some of the worst financial crises. for example, after the lehman brothers, and so on. we experienced probably the fastest growth of dark -- a
1:46 am
stark contrast to the mobile financial crisis. we spent some of the fastest growth in those years. because of the under deliver rich nature of the financial -- underdeliverage nature of the financial -- a very fast-growing capital market with the stock exchange with 50 companies that has attracted a lot of foreign investment, especially from new frontier. >> ok. thank you. >> and identified palestine as a market in the index. >> thank you for joining us. good luck with international --
1:47 am
german of the bank of -- chairman of the bank of palestine. >> joining us -- join us on twitter. russians hit by ruble crisis. drops swiss holidays are holidays at home. -- for holidays at home. >> you click on it. communication skills. analytical thinking. ability to work collaboratively. not sure about that for you. strategic thinking. >> that's you. >> we will take a short break. ♪
1:48 am
1:49 am
1:50 am
>> 6:50 a.m. in london. welcome back. we've been talking about luxury. cadillacs new car is not your average car. take a hands-on look at the detroit car show. >> cadillac has come up with interesting strategy at the detroit auto show. the role that a new card designed specifically to scare people. in particular -- been david
1:51 am
executives -- bmw executives. it looks pretty much like a regular cts. then there is the v part. more than a ferrari. cargoes from -- car goes from 0-60 in seconds. there's been a feature that allows the driver to record high definition video on the track and share on social networks. oh yeah. the car goes to hundred miles an hour. -- 200 miles an hour. it is just as sexy as anything coming out of germany. >> wow. what a car. imagine driving around in that. [laughter] coming up bloomberg's digital
1:52 am
output. how much cash does the average american carry? ♪
1:53 am
1:54 am
>> we take a look at our favorite stories. >> i found a business week story . it ought to do with how much
1:55 am
cash people carry in their wallets. never ever. this is an american piece of research. carries $22. one in five people carry more than $100. one in 20 carry $100 bills. $100 bills have been suggested to be taken out of circulation because of criminals. they found if you make more money, you still carry more cash and not the other way around. people also talk about the cashless society. >> and an nba basketball team. ryan has played basketball.
1:56 am
he holds 80% of the club. what did he buy? $220 million. why is he selling it? if he feeling pressure from the big man himself? fascinating story for a number of reasons. >> when have you ever said aluminum? on. -- come on. the number of russians arriving -- 3% is what they spend.
1:57 am
the hotel have the orthodox christmas dinner at 600 francs. there's trouble at the top. >> we're back for the second hour. ♪
1:58 am
1:59 am
2:00 am
>> judgment day for mario draghi, the european court of justice will deliver its opinion on the original on to buying plan and the next move on stimulus could hang on their word. >> europe's growth could hang on the u.s. this year, that is the latest addiction as it cuts for global expansion. >> the latest global outlook sends copper plunging. the metal hits a 5.5 year low.
2:01 am
>> welcome to "countdown," i am mark barton. >> i am anna edwards. >> i am manus cranny. >> breaking news now. burberry reporting its latest sales figures, let's bring in caroline hyde. what do you make of the numbers? >> it looks like it will bode well for burberry because they had an 8% increase in sales. many felt it would be 6.2%. it is matching the previous quarter growth. a 12% normal increase in like to like sales but this is beating analyst estimates. they talk about it is particularly strong in the americas and in europe and the middle east and in the -- indeed
2:02 am
asia. there are all these democracy protests on the streets. the protest in hong kong, -- i think that will reign in very leslie. many talking in china about the reigning in on luxury goods spending and giftgiving. it is an interesting one in terms of online presence because this is where they have led the charge. they have been the innovator when it comes to selling lipstick and makeup via twitter. you could be on the catwalk taking pictures and come by automatically. it has eroded the aura of luxury . suddenly, everyone is playing catch-up. you're talking about it earlier
2:03 am
analysts saying gucci looks like it is coming out on top of the leaderboards and gucci and coach seemed to be number one in terms of their ranked brands. researchers looked at 90 brands and said when it comes to e-commerce capabilities sure burberry talks the talk but they have done a fantastic job at talking about it and sometimes the functionality doesn't match the height they say. you can't get it the same day. >> it is what bloomberg intelligence -- was saying it is only 40% of the global luxury brand. when we think luxury only 40% are delivering a full regional service. they are still not that complete. >> 5% of total luxury sales are digital. >> 50% of those purchases stop online -- start online.
2:04 am
it is important to these analysts to have a presence to drive future sales. it drives footfall. as burberry has learned, you put your fragrance and udy online -- beauty online. when you hit your millions you can start buying overall they say it is a successful launch. >> beckham. >> also their sales, a just had their menswear collection on monday and it apparently drew 2000 people to kensington gardens. they had all the celebrities and a winter in the front row -- anna winter in the front row. they say strong performance in heritage trenchcoats and an exceptional response to the runway inspired poncho. the ceo says he is pleased.
2:05 am
it shows commitment to the brand . >> heritage trench or poncho mark? [laughter] >> you know my answer to that. poncho. how about that? how much does it pay for a day's work? >> off to your left for luxury questions, not the guy on the right. you may think the european central president your mario draghi -- after today he might have fewer because he is facing the european court of justice and their opinion on omt's or outright monetary transactions. >> the plan was never actually
2:06 am
used. the court is considering whether they contravened eu law, this morning the court will deliver its opinion. >> the opinion is not binding but if it goes against omt's mario draghi may find out his options on easing are narrower than ever. it is a big day for the ecb and the president himself. let's bring in hans nichols. this opinion -- break it down for us. there are a velocity of nuances that perhaps viewers need to know. >> what mario draghi will be looking for is guidance. guideposts on potentially what shape or form quantitative easing can take and crucially, will there be restrictions on quantitative easing that we get from the european court of justice. it is an advisory opinion.
2:07 am
what application will that have to any future quantitative easing? the key question is, will there be conditions on it or will it be open ended like when the federal reserve had their bond buying purchases. it was open-ended until he get below 6.5% unemployment. what we get today is the ruling on the german case that filtered up to the highest court in germany on whether or not omt was legal or did it fear into economic policy which is out of the ecb's remit. 8:30 today, just about 90 minutes and we will get a decision which comes from an advocate general. what we will get from him is the preliminary ruling ended six months we will get the full 16 member european court of justice
2:08 am
who have the final rule. >> talk us through this. there are some issues here. the full-court follows in a number of months. does the full-court typically follow what is delivered today by the advocate general? >> typically, but not always. i will give you one important exception. last may the full court went against the advocate general's decision. this was the way they determined that all europeans have a right to be forgotten. it isn't always an accurate predictor. for the most part it is. we are getting at what the ecb can do in terms of quantitative easing. what can they do to make this legal? that is what they are looking for. mario draghi is putting on his l to make it past legal
2:09 am
muster you could have restrictions that say you cannot have unlimited bond purchases. no one is really talking about unlimited bond purchases -- from a certain country -- company. the way quantitative easing is discussed right now seems like it may fall into that. we have to wait for the ruling in about 85 minutes. you are a man of letters and laws, i expect you will read it. >> you know how to plumance somebody on a wednesday morning. >> the predictions might be held from the latest forecast from the world bank. it is forecasting the world economy will expand by 3% this year. that is down from a forecast of 3.4% it gave last june. >> disappointing growth prospects worldwide from europe
2:10 am
to china. the report goes on to highlight a growing diversions between the u.s. and other economies. >> global growth is projected to be 3%. developing companies do better with predictive expansion of 4.8%. the eurozone lags behind at 1.1%. >> it does not make a rosy outlook for the world. europe faces particular challenges and alling oil prices alone won't be enough -- falling oil prices alone won't be enough to stimulate the eurozone. >> it depends on the design of monetary policy and a european policymaker has to make a decision sometime soon how they will knew -- move forward. they will likely have a higher allen's sheet. -- balance eight.
2:11 am
-- sheet. given the inflation numbers from europe it will require immediate attention. raw balancing policies will be necessary along with structural reforms. >> that meager outlook has been sold in the markets. copper at a five-year low under speculation that falling supply won't be enough to meet the cut. let's look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. start it off with a weekday that could be in the making for mick davies. that is according to people familiar with the matter. >> tesla in late trading after elon musk said the company probably won't be profitable
2:12 am
until annual sales reach half a million cars. musk said tesla is investing in growth and new models. >> it will be a few million cars in 10 years. >> by 2030? >> 2025. >> amazon has hired a new director or a tv series. woody allen. the director has never written a series for tv before. he says, i don't know how i got into this, i have no idea and i don't know where to begin. >> at 12 minutes past seven you can join in the conversation on twitter. mark and i are a standard -- astounded by manis's use of the word plumonce. >> furnished with feathers or plumes. pumping you up.
2:13 am
>> an excellent word for wednesday morning. tell us what you think on twitter. >> join us if you would like to be plomonced. >> joining us is the man behind the world's top hedge fund. he will be here shortly after 9:00 a.m. stay tuned for that. ♪
2:14 am
2:15 am
2:16 am
>> deutsche bank is considering asset sales as it removes -- reviews it projections. the letter is facing legal action in singapore after a three to ilion dollar trading loss. -- $32 billion trading loss. the executive committee trying to get a bonus this year. rory cullenen. bonuses at rbs bad bank are likely to exceed other units that were hobbled by poor performance and find -- fines. investors are concerned the patent just granted to apple pose a threat to gopro.
2:17 am
gopro is the biggest maker of wearable cameras. >> back to markets, we could get a definite answer on full-scale qe when the ecb holds its policy meeting. next thursday. but an earlier on buying program may limit the scale and the scope of any quantitative easing package. this ruling today -- we spoke to a reporter in berlin, is critical. if it goes against mario draghi it makes his job so much harder in terms of enacting qe next week. >> one way or another it will have to do something. whether directly or indirectly through the banks, this decision may mean they can't do it
2:18 am
directly but can do it to the banks. so the banks could do the buying rather than the central bank itself. >> how crucial is qe? your focus on the small cap world and focused on the u.k. but many of those is this is might be exposed to exporters in the eurozone. how crucial is it? >> it makes a big difference to the economy. we have had a lot of qe in the u.s. and the u.k. so i don't think it affects the economy but it definitely affects stock rises and share prices. whether the market is rising or falling, it makes a big difference and so we take that very seriously. >> dividend growth for big companies slowed last year but dividend growth amongst small caps is excellent. why the disparity? >> small companies have not been disturbing dividends in the past. some of the smaller companies buck the economic trend and can
2:19 am
grow when the world is not growing. many of them don't have good balance sheets. you look at the biggest sectors in the ftse 100, you have oil stocks and mineral stocks and companies that are over distributing, perhaps under pressure to cut. the smallest companies have more headroom to grow. >> this whole commodity -- oil copper, that is the whole context that is moving lower. if it kills the dividend trade, does it do anything in terms of killing the service companies? the oil service company something that analysts are talking about. what is the knock on effect? >> one of the problems with the huge fault we have seen in oil prices and commodities is -- the
2:20 am
consumer will be a big winner but there will be big losers and losers which could be disruptive to other parts of the industry. we have to try and determine those. not just the companies that service than but all the way down the chain and there is such big changes. it will be a real challenge is some businesses and we all get caught out by being surprised by companies which we think are immune. >> trying to work out where the positives will fall from this lower oil price. many people pointing to the u.s. consumer but is there a danger that all of the negatives -- because they happen first, derail the positives before they have a chance. >> there will be all sorts of negatives. effectively, they will be reported worst. from the point of view of stock market terms -- >> a lot of investment falling in the u.s. oil industry. >> exactly, some oil industries
2:21 am
only trading at a of normal trade. -- at a fifth of normal trade. it is all holding back all sorts of things. >> are you changing your strategy because of this dis-inflationary environment? how does that through into your stock pick? where does the spending go in a disinflationary environment in the u.k.? >> disinflation means less inflation rather than deflation. it is important to recognize that. it's wings more for the consumer and those companies which have real pricing power and can sustain the margin when others can't. i think we will see margin pressures across other parts of the economy. >> do they have pricing power?
2:22 am
>> many of these are single pricing companies. they can also have the exact right products. some of these have great opportunities to take market share and they are taking market share in small amounts. >> jura vase -- gervais you talked about protection claims. 24 billion pounds to the u.k. economy. you say that has evaporated? impact? >> we have seen the u.k. being a standout leader in terms of economic growth in your seven, it is not because we are that much better but because the booze came through and as we move beyond it that will -- boost came through and as we move beyond it, that will unwind.
2:23 am
>> pressing three to delete -- very important you call us back. >> when we come back, more with gervais. ♪
2:24 am
2:25 am
>> gervais williams is here, growth shadow, why do we care? >> you think of the analogy of
2:26 am
clouds blowing into the sea, you tend to imagine the clouds will rain extra hard once you get top of the mountains you talk -- you get something called a range shadow. we have been growing for 25 years with the credit boom and now we are in that growth shadow. negative bond yields in five years in germany. japanese bond yields have fallen even quarter -- further. >> any possibility bank of england could raise rates? >> very unlikely that anyone will raise rates unless your currency is collapsing. that's where we have seen the emerging markets horse to raise rates. >> gervais williams. >> coming up, we will discuss what the election could mean for most nations and the most famous
2:27 am
greek president joins us next. ♪
2:28 am
2:29 am
2:30 am
>> welcome back, this is "countdown." equity markets are under pressure. the world bank lowered its global growth forecast and the dollar-yen made a four week low. we have not seen this break a low one point -- 117. where at the edge. -- we are at the edge. the question is will japan make 2% inflation targets the question is, will anyone in the world?
2:31 am
yen is rising against all 16 major currencies. write that down in your book. there is a currency want to keep your eye on, the momentum you're seeing in the dollar. the dollar is at more or less 10 year highs but the real strength was a pledge rum the brazilians to get a grip on fiscal austerity. they plan to cut their debt. this currency has declined by 11% and the dollar rose by 11%. volatility. it is not the most volatile currency that we monitor at bloomberg. >> the european court of justice will deliver an opinion on whether an ecb bond buying program is seen as a precursor
2:32 am
and legal. a negative opinion about the outright monetary transactions program could and strain mario draghi as he plans to release a qe plan later this month. the eu tribunal opinion comes after the opinion that the ecb program went beyond the legal mandate. the bank's global economic aspect report projects the world economy will expand 3% this year. down from last june at 3.4%. it points the low fuel prices and disappointing results in china as having a drag down. the french satirical magazine "charlie have dough" -- "charlie hebdo" has released a new issue today. 3 million copies of the special edition have been printed. >> let's turn our attention to
2:33 am
italy where the longest-serving president is expected to step down any minute. let's get right to our bureau chief. dan napolitano, was quite a controversial president, he took some big steps and did not necessarily bow to the leaders did he? >> he is the longest serving president in italian history. he will be leaving before the end of his second term. he flagged this well in advance saying his age is 89. he is feeling some fatigue in helping resolve italy's continuous political crises so he wants to leave early. who will replace him? that is the big question. today he will step down which will trigger a complicated
2:34 am
process. it will take at least a couple of weeks before the system is in place. the entire italian parliament has a vote. in addition to mr. napolitano who will become a lifetime senator. all of that starts in a couple weeks. >> tell me this. what are the implications for mateo renzi? this is probably the last thing he really needs, that instability from the top. >> he had a little bit of time and has been intraoffice a year -- in office for a year. he has this massive agenda is trying to push through. everything from labor reform to the weight italy elects officials -- to the way italy elects officials. he is going to need a president
2:35 am
who will help broker-deals if he wants to get these measures passed through parliament. to convince the eu, angela merkel, mr. draghi that italy is making structural changes in the way it operates. >> it is still early. we are waiting for him to step down. give us a sense of where they may reach out. who might be in the offing at the moment? >> that is a big question and right now there is no figure -- italy needs someone like napolit ano who can sit above the political fray who is authoritative and knows the methods of reaching compromise. deraraghi's name has come up
2:36 am
however he has not said if he is interested in leaving the ecb to come to italy. other options are the former eu president and italian prime minister. he was a candidate two years ago in the italian parliament failed to elect someone. typically, a former premiers, warmer central bankers -- former central bankers. >> dan, i'm sure you will have your year to the ground. when that new name comes out, we will speak to you. thank you for joining us this morning. >> you can tell us what you think the happen in italy on twitter. i was just tweaking out the growth shadow concept we spoke about. >> up next it is bar chart time.
2:37 am
i last how low oil will go. ♪
2:38 am
2:39 am
>> the country is due to vote in general elections on january 25.
2:40 am
what is it mean for the most famous industry, tourism? with me is the president of the greek tourism federation. good morning sir, thank you for joining us. >> good morning from sunny athens. >> let's start with the election, to what extent do you think the upcoming elections will affect the greek tourism industry in 2015? >> we had an amazing 2014. 24 million arrivals. we hope to turn it into a positive 1%. jobs were created. the planning for two dozen 15 is excellent -- 2015 is excellent.
2:41 am
elections in a democratic country don't affect tourism. what can affect tourism our discussions about the greek crisis. this can affect decisions of holidaymakers. we don't worry about elections. >> does that mean that talk in the past month -- that has affected bookings in the last three days -- 30 days? >> in the u.s., the euro is weak or so tourism is helped. in germany we see a slowdown in bookings. because there is more discussion about the greek crisis in the german media. this is a political discussion
2:42 am
affecting holidaymakers. yes, there is a slowdown in bookings that we are not worried at this point in time. >> let us be frank. wouldn't you prefer it if greece did leave the euro, adopted the drachma which would provide a massive boost to the greek tourism industry? >> let me explain why we are totally against this idea. as far as the greek tourist confederation is concerned. tourism is a reflection of the life of people living here. you cannot have a local population below the level of poverty and expect greece to be a market destination. the future of greece is tied up to the prosperity of young people.
2:43 am
we believe we can make it within the euro. we don't believe greece needs to be so cheap. it is a good value for money anyway. we are against "grexit." this is not natural option for greece. >> does that mean you're totally against sareeza? he has honed down his message in recent days. are you politically neutral? would you go as far as saying which party you support? >> we are totally neutral politically. we don't pick sides. what we say to politicians is to handle with caution the cooperation with partners and the imf. this is what everybody says today. nobody wants to exit euro and
2:44 am
everybody will need to compromise. for both sides it is beneficial. there is no discussion about this anymore. almost 80% of greek people want greece to stay in the euro. there is no discussion about this issue as far as the greeks are concerned. >> i think i am right in saying that sareeza wants to ban all inclusive resorts. what is the response the greek tourism federation to this policy? >> they did not say they want to ban -- they talked about something all over the world, discussion of white all inclusive does not offer as much to the local community. what we are doing now and working on is to develop a new greek all-inclusive which will include services like restaurants, or even bars and
2:45 am
other services outside included in the package. we include the local community with locally produced products in this all-inclusive greek package. an amazing thing that only greece can offer. we can make this work very well without losing the 2 billion euros. >> moving in the way for the last question, i noticed in your 2014 figures, you say visitors rose to 21.5 million, russian visitors declined by 10%. it is a two part question. when do you expect russian tourist to return? who is picking up the slack from that decline? >> in 2015, a further drop in
2:46 am
russian tourists. i don't say it will be so high another 10%. it is more the disposable income because of the rebels value to the euro. let's not forget that we grew tourism from half a million to almost 5.5 million in the last three years. we have some way to go down. apart from the traditional markets -- france grew by more than 20% last year, the u.k. and u.s. as well, even poland -- poland covered by its growth all the slack of the russian tourists in 2014. we have many alternative markets. even turkey has grown to more than one million.
2:47 am
the position of greece is ideal for the new markets future years. >> it has been a pleasure, thank you for joining us. he is the president of greek tourism confederation. time for today's bar chart. is oil headed below $40 a barrel? wti trading at $45 a barrel and the u.s. benchmark dropping $60 since the june peak. brent sliding $70 its peak the same month. another drop of i've dollars or so would not be a major surprise -- five dollars or so would not be a major surprise. they are continuing to price a huge oversupply in the first half of this year. we are going below $40.
2:48 am
goldman sachs says the u.s. need to remain around $40 -- a message from opec is very clear. we are not cutting production. the u.k. energy minister said as much, u.s. shale producers will capitulate before opec to lower prices. bank of america says the route may consider to $35 a barrel in the near term because both supply and demand will have a delayed reaction to falling prices. look at the bottom right-hand corner, bank of america says it could fall to $35. those looking for prices to quickly recover him a let me remind you to history. the last time access supply caused a plunge in oil. wti crude tumbled 69% from $31 in november 1985 to $10 in april
2:49 am
of 1986. that is when saudi arabia flooded market, prices didn't crawl back until 1990. four years. wti is now down by 57% since that green circle. brent is down by 60%. is oil heading below $40? >> we will take a short break on countdown. when we come back we will talk about burberry, though luxury -- the luxury of any as reported numbers. more details when we return. ♪
2:50 am
2:51 am
2:52 am
>> the british luxury brand burberry reported earnings earlier. joining us for a take is caroline hyde. i hear it is all because mark barton bought trenchcoats. >> they sold fantastically well apparently. it was also about their cashmere. those were the products flying off the celts -- flying off the
2:53 am
shelves. they matched their previous quarter. they are sounding more positive on sales but not on profitability. we are still seeing -- a slightly revised their four your outlook for sales. marginally up. they're saying they will add about i percent to their sales. before it was low-to-mid single digits. everything else remains the much the same. in europe and the middle east, in europe and the americas. they had double-digit growth in all those regions. in china, hong kong there were disruptions. concerns about the protest. that dragged down the margins and profitability overall. even though we are seeing a better mood in terms of or in exchange, this is a big problem for many u.k. based companies.
2:54 am
that has improved in the second half, says burberry. more than upset by the disruption in hong kong. also, it seems to be a bit of a problem in the change in regional sales. they are hinting a little bit to china and korea where they are saying it is robust. it is now mid to high single digits. >> can i have a look at one? >> we talked a little bit about the online -- >> i look like clint eastwood. [laughter] >> for a few dollars more? is that what he wore? >> i don't know whether they have been selling well online but maybe. this is always wear burberry has trumpeted its fashion forward voice. it has been ahead of the curve
2:55 am
when it comes to online digital. digital once again outperformed in every single region. there were a few warning signs. both were voicing the fact that every is not quite running the battle as much as it used to be. in some recent reports they said og is coming on top -- gucci is coming on top. they said gucci had the deepest offer of silence -- styles available online purchase. tied with coach. burberry in fact, came in number six. they talk the talk are not walking the walk. >> the ceo, 20% sales are up -- >> go on, mr. bailey.
2:56 am
"on the move" is next. the euro court justices ruling is the key. ♪
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
>> good morning and welcome to on the move. busy day ahead. straight to the morning paris. the world bank is slashing growth forecasts and will expand 3%. that is down from a projection into stuff the eurozone has forecasted growth at 1.1 percent. taking the headlines this morning. dropping the most in six years. lows not seen since 2009. burberry beats. the largest luxury good maker beats analyst estimates and retail revenue jumps. it is better than the median estimate. this hour, the adviser to the
3:00 am
court of justice will deliver a nonbinding opinion on whether the emergency bond buying plan oversteps the law. we will bring you the news and tell you what it means for the ambitions. this is what the future markets are doing. they are lower by 1% and the futures are down by almost 100 points. manus cranny has the open. >> there is hesitancy in the equity markets and they may be disappointed. anything that may stall or stymie the quantitative easing in the markets will cause this. they'll meet today and if you want to get visual, there you go.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on