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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  March 16, 2015 2:00am-4:01am EDT

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mark:anus: oil drops to the lowest level in six years. we bring you up to date after oil traded below $44 a barrel. anna: a pledge to step in if economic growth goes further. mark: sanctions could be the top of the agenda. we bring you the exclusive look at the situation in the eastern ukraine ahead of the anniversary of the annexation of crimea. manus: this week will offer no giveaways.
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seven weeks ahead of the general election, we look at the politics at play. ♪ mark: welcome to countdown. anna: i am anna edwards. manus: i am manus cranny. a poll shows business leaders could live without netanyahu as prime minister. we go live to tel aviv. anna: 6:00 in london. let's kick off with the price of oil. west texas intermediate fell. it is the lowest level in six years. the plunge comes after the international aid agency says international output could strain storage capacity. . mark: american production and stockpiles are at the highest
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level in three decades. the drilling rigs are at a record pace. we will keep an eye on the oil price throughout the morning. manus: the stocks are at a five-year high. li has the national people's congress vowing to press ahead with structural reforms and support the economy. there are some really -- there was some really graphic language used. talk us through what he said and meant. yvonne: eloquent statement yesterday. he talked about the message of the chinese economy and said the growth target they set for 2015 may be pretty hard to achieve.
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there will be downward pressure on the economy. he said that china has pretty of ammunition and may step in with macroeconomic regulations as jobs and wages take a head. -- hit. he mentioned the government's role and reducing the role on the economy. it is something he said last year as well. he said it was similar to slashing one's wrist and talked about threading the needle of reform. >> reducing the government's role in the economy is a revolution. it touches the interest of several groups. this is like taking a knife to one's flesh. however painful, we are determined to keep going until it is done. it will clarify the relationship between the government and the
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market, stimulate vitality, and tackle downward pressure on economic growth. yvonne: the government may face resistance. it is a crucial step. this is a government facing many issues this year. you have the president's anti-corruption graft. you have the overcapacity in the factory industry and the disinflation pressures in the economy. there is ballooning inflation that is twice the economic output. manus: you talked about debt. what was the focus? yvonne: some of the things he has said in the previous years. the debt is manageable and banks
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have a high capital ratio. a lot is from investments with returns. we have seen investments in the past at the local level that were a result of them reaching growth standards. there was not much long-term revenue planning. the property market is a prime example of that. what china does will be interesting. li says they have more room for further moves. they have not had the massive stimulus that they put out and fired out during the financial crisis. manus: thank you for taking us up to date. the shanghai composite is up. anna: we are gearing up for the u.k. budget and with less than seven weeks to go to the election, the financial chiefs were out in force and george osborne thinks he is talking on his head subject, a long-term
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economic plan. it is the focus of conservative party campaigning. what we heard over the weekend was about expectation management around the budget for wednesday and how it was going to be fiscally neutral and there were not going to be any giveaways. it was going to be about the benefits of recovery. george: this is about building a powerhouse and connecting our long-term plans that support high-speed transport and make sure that all parts of the country feel the benefit of the economic recovery. no giveaways. no gimmicks. mark: no giveaways. lots of speculation about what might be in the budget. anna: indeed. plenty on the agenda. the comments on the weekend said that there could be an increase
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in a tax-free threshold the amount of money people are allowed to earn without paying taxes. that could be increased. the business rates would be reform. the bcc said this was outmoded. oil will be an area of focus. are we going to see a reduced rate of taxes for businesses and incentives to invest? are there going to be policies around whiskey? that will be interesting in scotland. google is a business accused of funneling profits to lower tax jurisdictions. the shadow chancellor is trying to differentiate himself from what he sees the current chancellor pushing. >> there are some who say we do not have to worry about the deficit. they are wrong.
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it is irresponsible and we need a credible plan to balance the books. that is what we are setting out for the next parliament. as soon as possible, we will get the national debt following. the difference between me and george osborne is that he wants to go beyond the difficult tax of them watching the books. -- balancing the books. manus: it was a har anguing. where are we with this argument? they are going to be the linchpin. anna: absolutely. we had to the election and some of the smaller parties look to be in the drivers seat as kingmakers, potentially. they are trying to get the bigger established parties to
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say which parties they will are will not do deals with. he says, no need. no plan. no desire to do a deal with the snp. osborne was asked about ukip and he says they are different than snp. ukip may only have a handful of seats. he has not ruled out a formal coalition. it may be about loose confidence arrangements. clegg, the deputy prime minister is talking about what this means if you put ukip or snp into government and why it is significant for the future of u.k. politics. >> let me be clear. just like we would not put ukip
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in charge, we are not going to put snp in charge of britain. it is not going to happen. anna: i will take you to an interesting piece from clive crook. mark: it is all about the snp and what happens. anna: we will bring you the budget. we will watch the u.k. election 2015. a special program looking at the issues and how it affects business, markets, and the economy. mark: who is anchoring that? anna: guy and myself. mark: let's look at the other stores. for ministers will meet on the situation in the ukraine and sexually and's -- and sanctions on russia. a referendum for voters.
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greece made its next payment to the imf today. they risk running out of cash this month. the government said it has a plan to enhance liquidity and insists they will not have problems paying wages or pensions. brazil's government will present a package of anticorruption measures. some are calling for the president's impeachment. they took to the streets yesterday. the president is embroiled in a corruption scandal. her approval rating has plummeted since she lost a close reelection. the government has declared a nationwide state of emergency
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after eight were left dead. aid arrived at the storm-hit nations. the cyclone has wiped out development in vanuatu. >> more than 90% of the buildings houses and others have been destroyed or damaged. a state of emergency has been issued. it does not include the other islands. once we receive updates, there will be another for the outer islands. mark: asking prices in london
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dropped. jitters denied the property market a spring boost. prices demanded by sellers fell following a jump in february. it was the first decline in march in three years and took the average london house price to over 580,000 pounds. you can find more on manus: join us on twitter. we have started the day's agenda. i am @manuscranny. anna: we will talk about greece. the next guest says he cannot see an amicable deal. find out why. ♪
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>> i am fully confident a solution will be found. the greek government has the support that may clash with formal request from europe. i am confident an agreement will be found. manus: that was the italian
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finance minister at a workshop. let's stay with the european theme and bring in the next guest with peter. great to have you with us this morning. he says we will get a solution for greece and we have the euro-dollar making fresh 12 year lows against the dollar. what you make -- this is such momentum in the fx markets. peter: it is crowded and the market has it right believe it or not. there is the u.s. and european side. we could spend a long time discussing both. i am sure we will get to both. look at the european side and we see a widening of the gap between the european creditors and greece and, what we are seeing is a culmination of the effects in greece is things getting difficult.
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we are seeing major outflows out of banks that is putting pressure on foreign and domestic investors to stop investing in greece. the final piece is what finances and people not paying their taxes. they are losing $2 billion and this is making it a more difficult situation than it is. the death spiral is ramping up. the situation is getting to the point where the divide is not going to come back together. anna: we have heard language over the last week. do you think that is symptomatic of policy disagreement? peter: it is a step for four the prime minister to regain his political base i ramping up the verbiage and going back at the europeans. -- by ramping up the verbiage and going back at the europeans. it was to get the gap closer.
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that is the opposite of what we are seeing happening. we are seeing the underlying outflows of banks, people not paying taxes, also causing the destruction of european value. mark: on the flip side of the coin, you have the strong dollar and 10 year highs. how does that play into conversations as we embark on the fomc meeting. peter: data is strong and doing well. you can see the effect of lower energy prices waning. we think the fomc will remove tightening and patience. they may not remove it at this meeting. that is secondary to the fact they will produce verbiage that will say they are stepping towards a rate hike.
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that is the most important thing. the other thing is that it is not so much about data. the markets are hung up on data jumping and say that retail sales came out worse than expected. to me, it is not about the data. it is about normalizing policy. the fed is in a difficult position where, if something was happening and if it was a shock to the u.s. economy, they have few tools. what they want to do is move up slowly and gradually just in case something moves backwards. they will have something they can take advantage of. manus: i know fx is a key focus. the euro dropped 6% in six days. we have not seen a run like that since lehman collapsed in 1999. the quid pro quo for that is, is
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the dollar going on a turn? peter: we believe in parity. we have been saying that. we think there is going to be volatility. we can come out and discuss this throwing a wrench and artificial tightening taking away the strength of monetary policy decision-making from the fomc and putting it into the market. in the longer term 6-8 months, we will see a parity. there is too much headwind in europe and the u.s. is on a clear path to tightening. anna: will we get much talk on the strong dollar from the fed? this is a move that has been gaining momentum and we may not mention it much. mark: it goes back to the currency wars which the fed is a culprit of triggering. they are a loser on the currency
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war. americans do not want to be losers in anything. there will be a level of verbiage to allow slowing of two-way trade. mark: we have to draw the line under it there. let's see what yellen and cohorts deliver. thank you. anna: this week marks the anniversary of the annexation of crimea. one year on, we bring you exclusive coverage of the situation in the ukraine. ryan chilcote got a look at mining. that is next. ♪
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>> life was tough enough before it became a battlefield. this is coal country. the town hasd all but 2 of 17 mines for the conflict began. life is grinding to a halt. -- befo the conflict beganre. . we are at a coal mine and heading beneath the surface. >> i have been doing this 20 years. >> my father was a miner. my grandfather was. my great grandfather was killed by the germans and thrown into a mine.
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>> the miners are following in the tracks of three generations before them. this is absolutely crazy. it is not good if you are claustrophobic. [coughing] now, the coal is not easy to come by. the miners have to travel further for less. >> check out where we are. it is a mountain of coal one meter above us. boy it is dusty. the last time they used heavy machinery they were getting at
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big patches of coal two years ago. the richest deposits are gone. the mine was slated to close this year. the separatist government decided to keep it open. the miners are working for the promise of pay. no one has seen the $90 a month paycheck in three months. even then, they only got 40%. they are working because the whole town will die if they stop. they volunteered to work. >> i guess we broke away from the ukraine. nobody needs us. we are alone. just surviveding. >> russia may be better. >> for most if they said with
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any conviction, we will take you under a roof and provide you this, that, and a salary, why not? anyone would agree to that. >> a day and the mine does not wash away easily. the water is ice cold. the town's name means "snowy." catherine the great gavwee the name. it became part of what she called new russia. so productive, the miners were a focus of a documentary.
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nothing to brag about today. mark: still to come we will go to tel aviv with the israelis getting ready to go to the polls. we are back in two. ♪
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♪ manus: you are watching countdown at 6:30 this monday morning. time to talk about what the markets are doing. the dollar is down by .33% and just coming off of 10 year highs. the euro-dollar is at 12 year lows. the focus is on the federal reserve and the statement they make on wednesday evening. the strong dollar was mentioned
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six times in the last two group reports. that is the strongest number of mentions in the past 15 years. it has been mentioned in beijing ge book. the euro is bouncing. we have hit a 12 year low this morning. that was made in the session. we are bouncing off of the level. 6% in six days. it is overly crowded. they are calling for parity. they are joining goldman sachs and calling for parity in the near-term. li made a comment to the people's congress saying that they are ready to act, if jobs are impacted. that is if the chinese intervene
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and stimulate growth, if the growth target mrs. 7%. this gives the aussie-dollar a balance. never before have the next short positions been so high in a relative sense on the aussie-dollar. blackrock says get ready for a further drop on the aussie-dollar. you will see a down 8% at .7$.70. that is it on the fx market. anna: top stories at this hour. france indicates a swiss company will not pursue a merger. they remain committed to a deal and are willing to explore the possibility of a revision. general electric is selling
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australia and new zealand financial services units. they are being bought for $6.3 billion. they are calling it one of the largest private equity deals. it adds to the $7.7 billion of assets sold by ge in the past year. auctioning a state in a missing natural gas deal. the company is feeling out buyers in what could be the first in a wave of deals. they are trying to sell a 20% stake in a deepwater project. it is considered a prime asset in the energy group's portfolio. mark: israel holds a general election. the final opinion polls point to
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a narrow win for the zionist union. elliott gotkine reports. elliott: march 17, up for grabs, 120 seats in parliament and the chance to be the 19th prime minister. no party has ever won a majority and coalitions are inevitable. that is when things get interesting. fewer than half of the parties are expected to get the minimum needed to win a seat. those that do may find themselves kingmakers in a right-wing government led by netanyahu or in a coalition led by herzon, who leads the zionist union. there is another possibility that netanyahu and herzog join
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forces to create a national unity government. you never know. mark: let's get to elliott gotkine, who is standing by live in tel aviv. netanyahu spoke at a rally and warned the left will win if they do not vote for him. is he on the ropes? elliott: he seems to be running scared from enemies real and imagined. he talked about international conspiracy, finance from scandinavia and the united states. millions of dollars are going into international efforts to usher in a left-wing government that would make territorial governments -- territorial concessions to the palestinians. according to the last opinion polls published, the party is set to lose and come second to the zionist union.
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the poll gives his party 22 seats and the opposition zionist union 26 seats. that does not mean the zionist union can form the next government. there seem to be more votes in the natural coalition of netanyahu than in the left of center zionist union. there are people backing cap pains -- campaigns against the left. the founder of slim fast has a group whose purpose is to get a left-wing government into power. netanyahu is backed by the billionaire casino mogul sheldon adelson, who owns the newspaper here. some people say it is a little
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rich coming from netanyahu. it will certainly be an exciting election and the aftermath will be tense. mark: an outsider looking in it would say that israel has a huge amount of challenges, in terms of security. are they getting a mention during the campaign? elliott: netanyahu would like them to be getting more prominence. during the campaign, he went to washington to congress to talk about the danger of iran and a bad nuclear deal with iran. he was in switzerland today. he would rather focus on security, his strong point. israelis are more concerned with humdrum issues. a big concern is a soaring cost of housing and. that is something herzong and
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livny have been focusing on. herzog says he agrees that we need to be wary of iran. i just don't think that antagonizing the biggest allied the united states and of obama is the way to go about it. mark: if the zionist union wins, what happens? elliott: an interesting question. the right wing party, when you add up all of their votes, the natural allies of benjamin netanyahu suggest they have more of a chance of forming a government. it will come down to which of the biggest parties. who can herzog persuade to come on board. the ultra-orthodox have then you
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will allies of netanyahu. -- have been the natural allies of netanyahu. he was not a huge fan of the plants in the last government to draft orthodox into the army and make them play a greater role in the workforce. herzog is a natural outlet of a party run by a finance minister. -- ally of a party run by the finance minister. the arab representatives got together. they could be the third biggest party in parliament. if herzog qwwins, would they get together? would they sit with israelis?
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+++ know. they could be kingmakers. any number of parties could find themselves being kingmakers and extracting concessions. mark: it appears that #armhamas is trending on twitter. what is this about? elliott: there is a debate on whether they are a terrorist organization or not. they are per train themselves as an open organization. i think israel and the united states and the european union designate it as a terrorist organization. they had posted a #hashtag. many took the chief to ask humorous questions. one asked why they murdered civilians a few years back. others mocked hamas.
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my favorite, i do not know if you have a picture, was a militant covering everything but his nose. it asked, what happens if he sneezes? mark: busy for elliott gotkine in tel aviv. anna: you can join in the conversation there. that is where you will find us. i just tweeted a nice piece . mark: they are losing faith in the greek ability to pay back. manus: those numbers on the german poll say it all. you have had enough. cough up. it is election day in israel. tomorrow, we speak to someone
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who knows what it is like to invest in a country like that. stay with us.
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manus: let's take a look at other top stories on bloomberg. ministers will meet on the situation in the ukraine and sanctions on russia will top the agenda today. today is the anniversary of the secession referendum.
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they arewere annexed. greece is going to make a payment to the international monetary fund that would further deplete cash reserves, unless a deal is reached with european partners. with other payments this week the government said it had a plan to enhance liquidity and insisted it will not cut wages or pensions. the brazilian government has begun a package of anti-corruption measures. a million people took to the streets yesterday. the president is embroiled in a corruption scandal involving a petrol company. her approval rating is plummeting since she won a close election last year. anna: election ads are a time
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for political parties to get their messages out. in israel, paid television spots are banned. they have been memorable for their humor. >> babysitter? >> comity is not netanyahu's for te. he starred in the bibisitter. he said he is the only candidate they should trust to look after their children. the zionist children borrowed the prime minister's ad, showing him eating popcorn while missiles rain down on the palestinians. it produces a more human side to the politicians.
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videos on youtube are easier than winning votes. >> campaigns are handicapped by using facebook and twitter and thinking that they are running a good ground campaign. i am not convinced they are getting the message across. the campaigns are confusing likes and shares with voters. >> israelis have enjoyed bennett dressed as a hipster and apologizing for stuff he did not do. >> it may influence a tiny fraction of the electorate. given the fact that the elections are so close between the large parties and the c candidates. a small in effect could be decisive.
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>> some are not subtle. others might have been overlooked, had they not been p anned on comedy shows. >> the most exciting thing that happens is this. [indiscernible] >> more than 24 parties are competing for votes. recognition is better than being ignored. elliott gotkine, tel aviv. mark: israel heads to the polls tomorrow. investing in a country played with political instability let's bring in william. he helps look after the israeli fund. thanks for joining us. political instability and geopolitical instability does not seem to be affecting the
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stock market. it was a record high for the tel aviv 25. the stock market does not reflect instability on the geopolitical side. william: over the last decade we have seen a number of geopolitical events that, from the success perspective, leads you to believe there is instability. the equity markets have never really demonstrated that. i think that you see that in tourist arrivals and there is a strong flow back to israel. we thank for an investment -- think fourreign investment has been steady, despite the conflict you referred to. manus: there is one name that sticks out cohen. if he gets finance minister,
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this is a man who decimated the telecoms industry and is going after banks. is this the worst case investment scenario? william: i think -- i understand where you're coming from. the primary issue is the cost of living. it is likely that, whoever does enter the finance ministry, they will focus on bringing down the cost of living for israelis. it has a legacy of -- he has a legacy of bringing down prices aggressively and introducing competition. he has publicly stated he would like to see more banking institutions and he would protect jobs in the banking sector, a sector where, if you
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look at the profitability of the banks, it is very low to global peers. we can certainly expect the banks to see heavier regulation provisioning for loans. these are banks that are well capitalized, versus global peers. it will not be the only industry to see more attention. you have seen the country at rollback promises made to the oil and gas industry. gas is offshore and it has cost them some deals with egypt. anna: is strength of leadership. always a virtue? was netanyahu's trip seen as a virtue by some and a dangerous tactic by others? william: it is a balance to be seen as strong enough to represent israel and so strong
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asthat you are viewed as -- where herzog trails is not having a strong apparent charisma. it is not something he has made light of -- it is something he has made light of. the promises that he will your mark shekels for development. -- earmark shekels for development. security is important. mark: what does the zionist union bring to the economic backdrop of the environment and the outlook of the stock market? william: i think, from a market perspective, measures to address cost of living would be positive. i think that his party pledged
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to allocate more money to social development. that will primarily mean bringing down the cost of housing. and i think that must be a positive. it is an area where netanyahu has discarded that. he has focused on national security, highlighted by the trips to congress. manus: when i traditionally look at israel and do business with people from israel, it is all about technology. it is all about silicon valley versus israel and the land of inspiration. for the investor is technology and technology step ups -- startups the way to look at it as opposed to the indigenous beasts there? william: i think peers startups
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can be hard for institutional investors to allocate capital to. clearly, it is a fruitful space for private equity funds. we see, within the taxpayers, a large number of companies that are fully developed and are still growing fast. they are producing positive cash flows and they are steady beasts on the end of a secular trend. we like checkpoint software as an example. it is one of the largest holdings in the fund and they produce -- it is a network security software. in an age where hacking and cyber security has never been so much to the fore it is a strong trend to be on the end of. mark: thank you for joining us today. william is the assistant investment manager at aberdeen. anna: let's talk about stories
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on bloomberg's digital output. we have our favorites for the morning. i have gone with one by clive crook. it is entitled "get ready for britain's constitutional crisis." losing the independence vote in september, who would have known the oil prices would tumble and membership has surged. it looks like they could take a bite out of labors membership in scotland. -- labor's membership in scotland. the interest of the best interest of the -- the interests of the snp is in westminster. the west lothian questiontion. mark: cinderella shot to the top
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of the charts. $17 million, following on the successes of others. anna: dreams are available. mark: dreams. how can i possibly add to that? they are on a roll and they have marvel films to look forward to and "star wars," as well. the money is rolling in. manus: if you are chinese, rich, and you want the american experience, go to los angeles. you get a private jet. you get plastic surgery advice. you get a bit of wealth management. that is what the brokers are offering the chinese to come to los angeles to buy a piece of the american dream. anna: all of that to sell property. manus: they are spending to me
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and dollars. it used to be billionaires and tycoons. -- they are spending $2 million. it used to be billionaires and tycoons. anna: countdown continues with more on oil. ♪ .
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manus: drops to the lowest in years. we bring you the latest on the oil trade below 44 bucks a barrel. anna: chinese stocks at a five-year high. we are live in hong kong with market reaction. mark: further on russian sanctions could be at the top of the agenda. an exclusive look ahead of the anniversary on the annexation of crimea. manus: j u.k. this week will offer no giveaway with just several weeks ahead of the
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general election we will look at the politics in play. ♪ mark: welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. i am anna edwards. anna: manus: i am manus cranny. one poll shows that they could live and yahoo!. anna: -- without netanyahu. -- anna: west texas intermediate fell below $43 a barrel. the lowest in six years. it comes after the international security agency said the u.s. output because training the country's output. mark: the highest levels in over three decades, companies at a
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record pace. we will look at the oil price throughout the morning. man is at china now. the stock market at a five-year highs premier league has wrapped up congress found to press ahead with structural reforms -- premier league has -- premier ku has wrapped up his press release ahead with structural reforms. slashing of risks. yvonne: pretty graphic from the premier he is known to be quite the eloquent guy especially speaking and chinese idioms. the one thing that really hit home was the economy and how the downward pressures we continue to see in the country of china 7% growth target he lowered for 2015.
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lip saying it would be hard to achieve that but they have pretty of ammunition to fire up if they need to. and already ready to step up the macro economic regulations if they see the economy continue to slow down especially if they see jobs and wages take a hit. and he talked about the government's role and how they were trying to reduce the role and essentially letting the government take over. that's when he got graphic. premier keqiang: reducing the government's rolet is a revolution -- role is a revolution and touches the interest of several groups. it is like taking a knife to one' own fleh. -- one's own flesh. no matter how painful we will
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continue. it will topple the downward pressure on economic growth. yvonee: ouch. wrist slashing was one of the phrases. it will face resistance in the country but it is a crucial step program -- crucial step. you have pollution, anticorruption drive which is starting to impact of the state owned enterprises. a lot of the things remain the same. overcapacity in industrial sector and ballooning of debt and dis-inflationary pressure we continue to see on the economy. manus: manus: what did he have to say about debt? yvonne: they talk about this credit binge among emerging markets.
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more than two times of the economic output now. premier keqiang saying the same thing a couple of years ago that debt is a manageable and banks have high capital adequacy ratio. over 70% of the debt incurred will have eventual returns. many other returns, whatever the investment we saw on the local level were a result of them trying to reach of growth standards. there was no long-term revenue planning. real estate is a prime example. it will be interesting to see as the year ends up and how china keeps the balancing act. premier keqiang saying that have plenty more move for stimulus. we saw optimism in the market today. the shanghai composite up 2% and hang seng as well. manus: let's see what comes next from perhaps reserve requirement cost.
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yvonne man. anna: gearing up for the u.k. budget. several weeks until the election. finance ministers were out in force. george osborne insisted there would be no giveaways or gimmicks when he delivers his budget. george osborne: this budget is about securing a truly national security, connecting other regions to committing to long-term plans to support high-speed transport. making all parts of our country feel the benefit of the economic recovery. no giveaways, no gimmicks. a budget for the long-term. anna: let's get more from our reporter. good morning to you. no gimmicks, no giveaways. how much do we believe that? reporter: the last chance to convince us that it is the best
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place to share in the recovery and they need the voters. the internet with laver -- a labor and neither winning the majority am pulling a rabbit out of the hat. he has delivered this pretty much every time. we are expecting something. mark: when it comes to surprises, what could be the biggest one? svenja o'donnell: there's been a lot of speculation we will see an increase in the threshold of personal land. we could see some giveaway really geared toward the lowest, the big accusation of the tories is that they privilege the wealthy. they are not the party to help the poor. we might see something of the region -- with already heard he has done more by allowing existing to sell annuities.
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that was its announcement of some. manus: when you look at elections, all the budgets are done by politicians and all of them have ramifications. your program starting this wednesday, the holy election fever kicks off. how political, if we use the word properly, is this particular budget? svenja o'donnell: it is as political as it gets. he cannot use it to make lots of promises he can't keep. the liberal democrats have to sign off on it. after the end of the day, he doesn't have that much. he has some a room. -- he has some room. probably days look quite big about on paper when you get to the nitty-gritty, not that much. we are waiting to hear big messages. [indiscernible]
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you will get some reward for the hard times that many consumers have felt they having door. anna: let's talk about coalitions or loose arrangements after the elections. you can offer to deal with the tories and s&p and labor, are either of these realistic propositions? what are we looking ahead to? svenja o'donnell: to be honest nothing is off of the table. neither party is likely to get a majority. is that what not to be a big surprise. conservatives and laborers have denied -- a with s&p, the tories. and the end of the day -- after the end of the day, not flat-out losing. anna: the language he used, no plan for -- the language used it is you cynically as many
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commentators have. svenja o'donnell: all commentators are simple. at the end of the day, they do not know any magic number. they are all preparing themselves for every scenario. at the same time, the u.k. would be lucky to get five seats. smp and labor a bigger question. the s&p -- in the s&p -- [indiscernible] anna: svenja o'donnell thank you. the latest on the budget. it takes place on wednesday. we will bring full coverage as we launch bloomberg politics, a special daily program looking at the key issues to the run-up of the election and how they may affect markets, business, and the economy. it will be from 11:00 a.m. u.k. time this wednesday.
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mark: eu foreign ministers will meet this week with russia likely to be on top of the agenda. today is the first anniversary of the crimea annexation. greece is set to make the next repayment to the international monetary fund. it will further deplete cash reserves and risk of manukau this month unless a deal is reached. -- a deplete cash reserves and risk running out this month unless a deal is received. brazil's government to present a package of anticorruption measures after one million people are calling for the impeachment of president rousseff. they took to these stories yesterday. rousseff is in group -- is embroiled in a scandal with
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petro. brazil's currency tumbles on friday. falling prices for london homes. prices demanded of sellers phil 1.4%. -- of sellers fell 1.4%. the average price just over live hundred 80,000 panels. you can find more on that story at -- the average price of fill over 580,000 pounds. manus: we could've tweeted out the moments. [laughter]
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anna: you are watching "countdown." investors takes on the latest on greece. ♪
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>> i am fully confident a solution will be found for -- will be found. someone may clash but i am confident that a compromise will
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be found in the compromise. mark: the italian finance minister. we are joined with the cio. the call when i look at your nose earlier, the potential for either a correction in equity markets -- the call when i look at your note earlier the potential for it correction in equity markets. what is your take? steve: it is hard to ignore the momentum. what is very characteristic is the u.s. a european market. and probably by quantitative easing and it tends to go higher and probably not going to be supported. at the tail end, the fact that
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europe, most companies driven by export machines and the emerging markets are slowing down to high dollar and the lack of commodity prices coming back up. and the u.s. in my view is slowing down dramatically. negative rates by the year end. anna: how much a divergence can we have between the u.s. and the rest of the global economy? steen jakobsen: i think the true answer is zero. the response and the impact on the economy, the rule of them when you see a macro impulse there's about 6-9 months for the economy to feel the real effects. people say the fed, the economy is in the stock market and not the other way around, which you can prove. leading by nine months. what ever happens today
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happened nine months ago in policy terms. that's why we get this in terms of what the goals on. china is not slowing down. every single country except switzerland cutting and trying to make the currency weaker. the lack of reform most importantly is all the same in the world right now. manus them the market -- manus: the markets and federal reserve think the interest rates suggest, 1% between them. who is wrong? interest rates will go to 3% three .5% versus the market of 2.5%. pier carlo padoan: -- steen jakobsen: i am diplomatic. manus: i do not what you to be diplomatic. steen jakobsen: the fed is
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wrong. if you look -- [indiscernible] into the future, they all agreed three .5%. in the short-term, the divergence between the high-end in low expectations from evans in chicago and fisher is very different. it is ironic, it usually isn't the other way around. more certainty and short-term full it shows you how wrong the whole setup is. if you have a contradiction in terms of the surveys, it is wrong. by definition, it is so wrong you shall put short-term into long. mark: one guest said the fed will raise rates because they need to start normalizing and have ammo and their toolkit. if it starts flipping once again.
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do you take that on the board at all? steen jakobsen: i think fisher in particular is doing a margin call. business has nothing to do the economics. manus' question it doesn't matter. it's about making a margin call. the banking sector, almost 25%. way too high for the economy to function. probably 10%, 50% maximum. continuously increasing requirements, capital requirements on the u.s. bank and they have more requirements than suggested with a maximum levels of 12 times. jpmorgan, keeping money is too expensive. it is driving and fueling the buying of u.s. treasuries. there is a shortage of being
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able to buy from the banks. it is ironic going into a june hike, the regulatory framework makes people buy more. a you are squeezing the banking profit. mark: good to see you. steen jakobsen. anna: this week is the anniversary of russia's annexation of crimea. we bring you coverage in easter ukraine. ryan chilcote looks at industry fundamentals of mining. ♪ ryan: life in easter ukraine was bad enough before it became a battlefield. this is cold country.
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it has been on is back since the collapse of the soviet union. this town, all but 2 of the 17 minus had close before the conflict began. -- mines had closed before the conflict began. ♪ ryan: one of the town's last economic activity we are heading 600 meters but need the surface. -- but need the surface -- beneath the surface. >> my father was a miner and my grandfather was a miner and my great-grandfather was killed by the germans and thrown in a min e.
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ryan: the miners are following in the tracks of at least three generations before them. this is absolutely crazy. this is not if you are claustrophobic. [drilling] ryan: nowadays, the cold is not easy to come by. the miners have to travel further for less stop check this out. here we are. the call. -- the coal above us. boy is it dusty. the last time they use heavy machinery for getting a big patches of call was two years ago -- getting big patches of
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coal was two years ago. it was slated to close this year but the separatist government decided to keep it open. these miners are working for the promise of pay. no one is saying their $90 of month paycheck in three months. even then, they only got 40%. -- no one has seen their $90 a month paycheck in three months. they have a calm like volunteers to work. -- they have become like volunteers to work. >> nobody needs us. we are alone. ryan: joining russia might be better, but it depends. >> who knows if they want us.
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take you on your roof and provide with this and that and will provide a working salary. why not? anyone would agree to that. ryan: a day in the mine doesn't wash away easily. the town's name means "snowy." legend is catherine the great gave it the name after a snowy day. it became part of what she called -- new russia. a term popular again with a progression separatists. -- pro-russian separatists. so productive, the focus of the world's ever documentary. they last lit the star to years
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ago. nothing to brag about today. anna: that was ryan chilcote in the first of a special report on eastern ukraine. mark: join us on twitter and let us know what you think about the show. and a has been tweeting furiously this morning -- anna has been tweeting fiercely this morning. secondly by manus. i will pick up later. manus them with pictures -- manus: with pictures. anna: one of our photographers has a time lapse camera on westminster. manus them in the middle of that with a rain. anna: asked to stay there. i will not move. manus: where is putin? people are asking that on twitter. some news out about the troops.
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we are going to brussels next. the eu ministers are meeting. russia is on the agenda. sanctions is on the agenda. stay with "countdown." ♪
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manus them you are watching -- manus: you are watching "countdown." a statement, the dollar is lower. trading down 0.3%. my fact of the day, my favorite fact is with had january and february, how is the eu west economy doing. -- we have had january if everywhere, how is the u.s.
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economy doing? we have had -- we have not had those numbers in 15 years. we are waiting for what the fomc has said and whether they remove the word "patients." -- "patie nce.": how is the euro doing. a new 12 year low. premier keqiang said i am ready to intervene in the market whatever that means. that has given the aussie dollar a little bit up 0.2 percent. according to black rock, you will get an 8% drop in aussie dollar. you will hit of $.70. that is on the way. it is the most short on at the
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aussie dollar. that is the traders position. if the -- the yuan. barclays calling for reserve requirement, making it easier for banks to lend. this is dollar up. anna? anna: top stories at this hour. a french company said it is willing to revise the merger. it is not prepared to accept any other changes. after they wrote yesterday saying the government plans to accept the terms. it would create the largest cemented maker. general electric is selling australian and new zealand the unit. is being bought for 6.3 billion u.s. dollars. it is parted with kkr and
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deutsche bank. the transaction adds to the assets sold by ge in the past year. the french oil giant is auctioning a stake in one of the uk's most promising gas fields. according to reports the company is sanding doubt possible buyers that the be the first in a wave of deals. they are looking [indiscernible] a project 100 to five kilometers -- 125 kilometers west. mark: the foreign ministers meet today. the situation in ukraine and sanctions on russia. for more or less the get to our reporter -- from war let's get to our -- for more, let's get to our reporter. reporter: they which right to
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get an assessment of what is going on, on the ground. the cease-fire seems to be holding right now so they are pretty positive but there is no consensus at this point what to do going forward in terms of sanctions. part of the problem is yesterday , a documentary were putin came out and said it had been hell woodworker straight at the takeover of crimea and the annexation a year ago. coming up on the anniversary and they are celebrating. -- and said it had been him orchestrated the takeover of crimea and the annexation a year ago. manus: will iran be a topic of discussion as well? jones hayden: iran is chronic in on the foreign ministers. it's not on the official agenda. the foreign minister going to meet with the iranian minister
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here in brussels and he will meet with the foreign minister of germany, france, and the u.k. talks of an agreement, a framework agreement on iran's nuclear program by the end of the month. we will keep a close eye. mark: thank you. jones hayden in brussels. annabelle -- anna: let's switch gears. an exclusive interview, victoria beckham has come a long way from her popstar days. she opened a flagship store in london last year and is planning her next move in asia. angie lau spoke exclusively with the fashion designer on why she chose hong kong. victoria beckham: i love hong kong. i opened my first flagship store in central london seven months ago. i have been looking at my options. for me, it seems like the
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natural place to open my second store. i traveled around the world and have met so many incredible chinese women. i wanted to open my next-door here so i can really get to know her. so i can give her what i really do think she wants. angie lau bank -- angie: when can we expect it to open? victoria beckham: i hope the end of this year or the beginning of next year if i can find the right space. angie: your second store will be in hong kong. where else is next? victoria beckham: i would say the u.s. is next. i do not know where yet. i am in a great position. i am doing my research. i am looking at different opportunities. i would say the u.s. after hong kong. angie: you have taken the fashion world by storm as a newcomer and build of your asked that it -- as static.
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-- aesthetic. when it comes to asia, do you think it has to change? victory that the: -- victoria beckham: some me, women are women. i have traveled to different territories and i get into the fitting room with my customers and talk to my customer. i want to know what she likes about her body, what she doesn't like about her body. each season, i can give her what she wants. i feel confident i know my customer here in asia. and i am constantly tweaking. and give her what she wants. i am pretty confident that now is the time for my store here in hong kong. i never like to rush anything at all. everything i do, i want to take
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baby steps. i do not want to make mistakes. i have done my homework. i have done my research. now is the time. people ask, why hong kong? i love it here. i love the energy. i love the women. they understand fashion. they understand luxury and quality. it seems that the natural place for the second store. manus: the anniversary of the crimea referendum. joining us now is our bloomberg view columnist. yesterday, we had a documentary that hit the tv station all about russia's takeover of crimea. it was error on state tv. what you make about clinton's comments -- putin's come is
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about a nuclear standoff? nobody in the west got apperception? reporter: putin said in the film he was willing to pull a russia's nuclear arms on higher in case of there was active resistance to annexation of crimea and it shows how he was in terms of taking over crimea after a pro-european, pro-western forces took places in pf. -- in kiev. because of that threat, the ukrainian forces did not resist. he was allowed to take crimea without a single shot. manus: will not see much of him in public. people are asking.
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do we know where he is? reports of this morning he is putting troops on high alert. where is he? what do we know about his absent shia at the moment -- absentia at the moment and should we draw any conclusions? leonid bershidsky: we do not know much about his current whereabouts of what he is supposed to reappear. he has been absent since march 1 since he met in moscow with a prime minister. he is supposed to reappear today for a meeting with the president of closer to stand who what -- khazhakastan. when we see the kremlin, we will take a good look at him and see if he looks fit. if he is -- if he shows any effects of being ill over the
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last few days or something. but his absence has, you know worried and alerted a lot of people because basically he has concentrated all power in russia . if he is missing for a week nothing happens. there is a nervous situation. supposedly today, he reappears. men spam do you think the comments about -- manus: do think the comments about using nuclear arsenal was a warning shot to the west and the current dealings over the ukraine? leonid bershidsky: i don't think he ever meant that he ever said in the family he was prepared to use nuclear weapons -- in the film and he was prepared to use nuclear weapons. russia's verbal use of nuclear
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arsenal has been stepped up over the past year since the crimea annexation. and russia keeps telling the west it is a nuclear power and should be taken seriously. i do not think it correlates with readiness to use the weapons. it is just the insistence of being not taken for granted. manus: let's see if he reappears today, it as one person said, a glow about him. leonid bershidsky. a bloomberg view columnist. anna: you can join the conversation on twitter. let us know what you think of the show. tell us what is on your mind. mark: bart chart time. is oil heading below $40 a barrel? stay tuned. ♪
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mark: time for bart chart. is oil heading down below $40? a week ago, one close below $50 and today, almost six dollars lower. the lowest level since march 11 2009. a lot has happened in the last
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week. in the last five trading sessions, tuesday through today, oil has shrugged 11%. overnight, when oil fell to $43 $.57, it took the five day plunge to 12%. the worst in 3.5 years. today's drop takes oil below the closing low of $44.45 on january 28. that's a mark at 58.5% decline from last year's high. the pink circle of $107 on june 20. after the low right there, the yellow circle. a three-way climbed to $53.53 the green circle before resuming its decline again. what is going on?
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put simply, investors are worried record crude inventory in the united states could begin to strain of the country's storage. if the country runs out of storage, there's only one place for oil to go on the market. has the u.s. lost half of its oil rigs since october? a reason for the bounceback since of the year low in january , yes, riggs have been idle. however, the ie a on friday boosted estimates for oil production this year as a general cutbacks failed to slow output and said it takes are at risk. competition is increasing. -- and said tanks are at risk. iraqi oil fell.
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expected to rise this month. russia pumped 10.7 million barrels a day. that is a soviet a record. and a strengthening dollar which makes the commodity more expensive to buy outside of the u.s.. how investors reacted, speculators have cut bullish be ts. bets on oil declining is at a low. a final word, a prediction of $53 in the second quarter according to a bloomberg survey. the most bearish is citigroup with a survey of $35. barclays inc. as low as $39. the most bullish, oil will rebound to $68. a lot of banks. what a week it has been.
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manus some of the other stories. eu foreign ministers will meet with the situation in ukraine and sanctions on russia likely to top the agenda. the first anniversary of crimea referendum. 93% of voters backed joining russia. greece is set to make its next repayment to the international monetary fund today. the move will deplete cash reserves and risk of running out this month unless a deal is reached. with other repayment to do this week the government said on saturday it has a plan to enhance liquidity and insisted it will not have problems with paying wages or pensions. brazil's government will present anticorruption measures after one million people, some of them calling for president rousseff's impeachment took to the streets yesterday.
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rousseff is in a corruption scandal with the state oil. her approval rating has plummeted since she won her election last october. anna: 24 hours to go before israel holds a general election. the final opinion polls poison a narrow in for zionist but it doesn't mean that it will form the next government. elliott gotkine reports. elliott: after the government included two years ago, israel will vote for a new one. up for grabs, 120 seats in the parliament and a chance to be israel's 19th prime minister. no party is ever one and majority. coalition is inevitable. of the 26 parties running, fewer
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than half are expected to get more than 2.5% of the vote, the minimum needed. some may find themselves as team makers either in a right-wing government led by benjamin netanyahu or a coalition led by the son of a former president of the zionist union. there's one other possibility, net cannot to -- netanyahu and the other joint parties. in politics, you never know. elliott gotkine. anna: elliott is standing by. good to see you. netanyahu spoke at the rally warning right-wing voters that the left will win if they do not vote for him. is he under pressure? elliott: he is definitely under pressure. not just last night's rally, he made a last-minute decision to
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speak at. he has been giving interviews to israeli tv which he had refused to do until the last week. that famous and controversial trip to washington, d c to address both parties of congress warning against a bad deal and negotiations and restarting today over in switzerland. since then, the zionist union has been gathering momentum. according to a final opinion poll on friday the design is union could win with 26 seats and netanyahu's party could come out with 22. netanyahu talking about international conspiracies millions of dollars he talked about being finance from scandinavia and the united states in a desperate bid to unseat him, which will make territorial concessions.
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he has offered the financial ministerial [indiscernible] likely to win around 10 seats or so. that offer was rejected because the gentleman is being courted a by both left and right. netanyahu is concerned that he may well lose the elections. but it doesn't mean he will not become trimester. anna: interesting. israel doesn't seem to be short on security challenges. does it make its way on the agenda? elliott: it does. for netanyahu, he would love to be at the top of everybody's agenda. whether dealing with iran or his friends and critics alone credit him with a break in the iranian situation to international attention. palestinians, he did say a few
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years ago in a famous speech he was in favor of the two state solution. when a newspaper not friendly toward netanyahu said he would make certain territorial concessions, he effectively said no way are we going to give up a single centimeter of land to palestinians. however security is not israelis primary concern. their concern is the cost of housing and soaring cost of living. those are the main concerns. either the design is union has been tapping into him probably while he is leading in the final opinion poll. and is the favorite to win a victory. that doesn't mean he will be able to form the next government. anna: if the opposition wins then what? elliott: there are so many
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parties, anna, it is a smorgasbord out there. seems to be what we have now are there are more right-wing parties all according to the opinion polls and enough to form a coalition. that would be easier than the zionist union forming a coalition with centrist and left-wing parties. one of the unknowns is the united arab, the arab parties and population of israel is about 20%. they have come together for the first time. would they be willing to go into government as a coalition party with israeli parties? would the zionist union be willing to go into coalition with the arab parties as well? we really do not know. there are so many deal breakers. it is looking like one of these -- you have so many makers who could speak to forming a
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government and be able to extract key concessions for their own constituents if they agreed to join the government. anna: elliott thank you. elliott gotkine from tel aviv. ♪
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jonathan: welcome to "on the move." jonathan ferro moments away from the start of european trading. premier keqiang stands ready to act. the chinese premier pledges to take action if economic growth slows too much. where is potent? -- where is potent -- where is putin? the russian president is scheduled to make his first appearance since march 5. cash running dry.
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greece is to make a payment to the international monetary fund today. they are risking a cash crunchah later this month. ead of the equity mark -- i had of the equity markets. a stellar run for the germany benchmark. a higher open. let's get to manus cranny. manus: seven-year highs from the equity mark. indeed you are right. it was up over 4% and traded -- this morning, china. what is next for china? a reserve requirement lower? premier keqiang in for an we have lots of room to assist. back to european equities. the debate what happened with the dollar and that your role. we saw a 12 year low trade overnight in the asian marke


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