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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  May 8, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT

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tom: the polls got it totally wrong. it is jobs day in america. an accommodative fed for their new normal? and sir martin sorrell on the death of david lloyd george and tony blair's anglin. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is job say, friday, may 8. i am tom, joining the olivia sterns and brendan greeley with our top headlines. olivia: it is a tory upset that surprises david cameron who is poised to return as prime minister after easily defeating ed miliband. the bbc forecast that conservatives will have a majority of our lament that would allow cameron to ditch his coalition partner of the last five years, the liberal democrats under nextick clegg.
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cameron called for unity. pm cameron: i would like to reclaim a mantle we should have never lost, a mantle of one nation, one united kingdom. that is how i will govern if i unfortunate fortunate enough to hold a government in the coming days. olivia: it was a crushing defeat for labor leader ed miliband and raises questions about his political future. the scottish national party won 56 of the 59 seats in scotland almost shutting out the other two major parties. we will know in 2.5 hours from now whether march's disappointing jobs report was more than a one-time event. job figures at 8:30 a.m. eastern time this morning. 235,000 jobs were raised and the jobless rate fell .1% to 5.4%.
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in march, employers hired the fewest workers in 15 months. president obama is in portland oregon today where he will push for the asian trade deal and have an appearance at nike headquarters. nike announcing that if congress oks the trade deal, the company will increase manufacturing in the u.s. nike says that could create up to 10,000 jobs directly and tens of thousands more for construction and supply companies will set some argue that will depress jobs and wages. brendan: fitbit has filed for an ipo and plans to list on the new york stock exchange. earlier, bloomberg news reported that fitbit could raise -- the company posted a profit. in sports, that is right, tom brady said the new england patriots super bowl win was not tainted by controversy over deflated balls. an nfl investigation found the patriots cornerback probably
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knew that balls had been illegally deflated speaking to a friendly crowd in salem, massachusetts, brady was asked what he thanks about the pro. tom brady: i have not had much time to digest it fully, but when i do, i will be sure to let you know how i feel about it. brendan: brady could end up being suspended, the patriots good faith a big fine meanwhile, new york's papers are having the best year of their lives. tom? tom: there were three adverts in the top two paragraphs of the "boston globe" yesterday. there are no facts. it is sort of kind of like. brendan: oh no, there are facts. there was some investigative reporting. tom: ok, let's do a data check, equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. futures up 3 oil get the back onto the next ring, plate, we have got to get to the election
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and some of the exchange that's onto the next screen, please, we have got to get to the election. lower yield really across the board this morning. let's go over to the bloomberg terminal. brendan, this is euro sterling a snapshot of a back-and-forth of britain in europe. this is margaret thatcher, wrong sterling hair, 30, 40, tiny tony blair's. trouncing a stronger sterling. brendan: one of the things we are looking at in the background of this entire election is the u.k.'s decision pending by 2017 whether to stay in the eu or not, and they carved out this exemption to hold onto sterling. that is never going to change. tom: and we will have this referendum. olivia: david cameron promised that as part of his election
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campaign he will hold that referendum, and if he does get a majority, it is likely he will make good on that. i look at that and i see the strength of david cameron, george osborne policy coming out of the crisis. the question is currently, britain is the fastest g7 economy, they do more trade with the eurozone man with the u.s. at some point, and because a lot of restaurant euro. brendan: i tell you what i see -- i see crowds and crowds of brits making way for their stack andg and hen parties. tom: i spoke to -- moments ago and basically at 12:00 noon london time, the most likely cameron victory will be cast in the own. it is jobs day america. yes it is our top story, but maybe it is not. we know the united kingdom held an important election yesterday. we and our francine lacqua
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stunned. labour has been crushed, liberal democrats wiped off the map, conservatism and the ghost of 1707 have one big. francine let me go to what you nailed the other day, which is the undecideds. what and why did the undecideds go to the conservatives? francine: tom, you are right, it is from the undecideds that they won the election. the undecideds we understand, are a lot of the younger crowd the ones on social media and a lot of the undecided were undecided because they were not taken by any leader, by one or the other. think about this -- you are in the booth, you are about to tick a box and you think the last five years have not been that bad, maybe i'm concerned about the scottish national party, so would seem natural with hindsight that you would take the conservatives if you were undecided until the very last
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moment. olivia: francine, what does today's vote mean for britain's future in europe? francine: i think we are now moving away from the election debate. we will have a better idea of exactly who resigns the next hour, but we have moved away from that to -- can the u.k. stay in the eu, and how to the u.k. deal with the scottish national party? on the eu referendum, it will be difficult for david cameron at the moment to back away from that. then timing is crucial. he needs to give himself time to convince -- do not forget, david cameron wants this country to remain in the eeo, so he wants to give himself time to negotiate with the eu, he needs to give himself time thomas have a campaign for europe, but what he does not want us to leave it too late so that businesses get scared off. uncertainty in britain because of this possible eu referendum. brendan: francine, are you one
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of the people who -- francine: well so this we have been trying to figure out, brendan. it is i think a combination of smaller parties being in the mix so if you only speak to 2000 voters -- and it is quite easy to get it wrong. because this is a country that has always had a bipartisan system, it is difficult to poll now. tom: francine the results in key landing one also good as i recall from season one of "game of thrones." exactly what does the scottish national party do if they are king's landing called westminster? francine:w well, they create chaos. they have a mandate, tom, and let's not make any mistake, this is a person, 56 members of parliament that have a mandate
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and it is looking after scottish interests. how does westminster deal with this is really the other big unknown because, of course remember, scotland has deluded power, which means if you are in england, you cannot vote on what happens in scotland, but now you have 58 abl wher ther are si hundred 50 seats that will have a say about what happened here in the u.k. olivia: we want to underscore that that is really annoying to britain that the scots can vote in westminster by the brits cannot vote on scottish national policy. to take away from "game of thrones" for a second everything moving. what do you see going on? francine: sorry, banks? olivia: walk us through the market reaction to the tory victory. francine: this is an interesting
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rally because the polls got it wrong, this means a victory for the tories come it means that taxes are not going to increase, it is as friendly. you solveaw the pound surge. once they realize that what they are dealing with now is in a eu referendum, we may see some of these gains being called back. olivia: all right, francine lacqua, editor and large for bloomberg city in europe, we will get back you later on any show. tom: bloomberg covering the united kingdom election results all day long. we will bring you an election special at noon eastern time live from london. the economic cycle research institute has gained global acclaim for focusing on the part of america, whether a better economy or not, they feel like they are in recession. you call for recession, a lot of your critics will say it did not happen. i would suggest mine mail says
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it is still happening. guest: well i will give you some news. that recession call did turn out to be a false alarm ok, so technically i do not think with the data in hand that we are going to see a recession back in 2012. olivia: it is so refreshing to have a guest call out his own call. tom: it is part of the game. where are we in this job state that does not feel that wonderful? lakshman: we called the slowdown in the beginning of the year. that is what is happening in the middle of the weakening economic growth, but i do want to make a point that is very important. while there was not a technical recession, there was a downturn a growth rate downturn that turned out to be the worst
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non-recession in half a century. tom: where are we at -- 1% gdp, to first quarters in a row. to a lot of americans, i will say that is a recession. lakshman: but when you go to technical definition outcome employment and put a sales come i have to live in recession. if we dodge a recession, we have slightly positive growth. it was not negatively -- it was not technically a decline, but it was the worth and half a century. when you look at why, it is astounding because it has big implications for now. the reason is because volatility in the economy plunged to a new all-time record low, so when you look at the cause of why it is i think a lot of people look at the fed, it is not actually. it is oil, price, volatility. oil price volatility from 2011 to 2013, not where the prices
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but how much it is bouncing around. that fell to a 40-year low, the lowest and since it was fixed in the 1970's, and when -- in the early 1970's -- and when you look at how we predict the recession, right, why should i even come on here and say it is going up or down? it is because we are monitoring the inherent segment cyclical forces in the economy. the way we predict a recession is when you have a downturn in the cyclical forces, a window of vulnerability opens up, and in a shock is a recessionary shock. over the past several decades it has been an oil shock that compliance -- that combines with cyclical weakness. brendan: do you believe that oil prices are stable? tom: alan krueger with us later on. olivia: still to come here on "bloomberg surveillance," fitbit
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has filed for an ipo. we will break down the company's fit financials after the break. this is "bloomberg surveillance." bloomberg.comon bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and happy friday. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. job state. futures up 2. alan krueger and bill gross will join us in the 8:00 hour on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. brendan: baltimore's police will face a justice department investigation. an announcement is expected as soon as today. rioting erupted of the city last week after the funeral of a man who died in police custody. some analysts are raising concerns about tesla's cash and say elon musk's electric car
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company needs to raise money. last week, a morgan stanley analyst called tesla's casper and high watery. analysts at jp morgan chase also suggested the company needed to raise money. barack obama is crossing a big item off his bucket list. he will become the fourth president to visit every state while in office. he will notch number 50 today while he lands in south dakota. the others who did it -- richard nixon, george h.w. bush, and bill clinton. tom: coming up on "bloomberg surveillance" today, and jot stay. we look at india. better than good on venture capital investing and of course the election in the united kingdom. if you're just waking up, it is a flat-out stunner. martin sorrell will give us
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important perspective later in the hour. olivia, i am the only one anyone who is not bodybought a fitbit. olivia: i haven't, either. brendan: i feel like i do not need something telling me i am not getting enough sleep. olivia: exactly. we are excited about the elections, jobs day, and companies continue to go public in the u.s. fitbit files for their ipo. they sent their documents to u.s. regulators last night. what is interesting about the filing is after a string of high-profile ipo's -- twitter, boxx and etxysy -- fitbit is pretty profitable. they have a plan for a fitbit premium package. there are questions about whether or not it will be valued as a hardware company. maybe they will try to do what gopro did and get filed as a
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media company. cory johnson, impressive numbers, $191 million for 2014 with a 26% operating margin. tom: i will go with the 26% margin. i just -- it is clearly a small -- olivia: you are not a gym rat tom. let's call a spade a space. [laughs] brendan: they have first mover advantage. fitbit went into this before job onawbone did, before apple did. it is comparatively simple technology. of all of them, fitbit comes away with the best reviews. please show tom pretending to lift weights as i talk. whatever it is i might be saying about the strength of the device, evidently tom does curls with the bar. olivia: one of the questions is how loyal users will remain, they have 25 active devices
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since they lunch, a lot get them in their christmas stocking but by may they are not using it. tom: we are talking to lakshman achuthan about the american economy and some of the sluggishness that is there. in our next hour, alan krueger on our jobs day. we dig into the covers as we look at ways growth or the lack thereof. from new york city this morning more on the united kingdom elections as well. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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tom: 10 downing street, of course the road for the prime minister, david cameron. he will leave sometime around lunchtime to have tea with the queen i am told. olivia: two formally get her approval. brendan: to formally stroll in there and give her a high five. that is actually protocol with the queen. olivia: i think she will be happy to see him. tom: let's get to our morning must-read with brendan greeley. brendan: may 8 is of course ve day. it has been 70 days since world war ii ended in europe. we have talked about the celebration in moscow. this is a german magazine, and basically they dedicated an entire issue, of course the end of the war, the quote is -- "have we thought enough?"
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a bony finger point strictly at us with every word. "moment soo nazi" comes the warning. because this won't is supposed to bleed forever. tom: we have this with the japanese front minister visiting the white house with the recent 70th anniversary, shots of airplanes and all that. in germany, it is nothing like the nostalgia here. brendan: an academic historian actually spoke at the boneund entag and said we must remember this forever. this is part of their negotiations with greece right now. lakshman: absolutely. so you have the history, and then you have the pressures of the moment and in the pressures of the moment there is obviously the political exercise of a unified europe, and then there is debt right? we have more debt today floating around than we have had in all
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of human history, and it is starting to weigh on nations. there is no easy way out of it if you look at the map. a certain amount of growth is needed to handle -- you need growth and inflation to handle debt. we are hurting on growth and inflation, so there is a lot of pressure. brendan: and of course the word debt in germany is interchangeable with the word "guilt." lakshman: well done. [laughs] olivia: as we had to break, our twitter question of the day, we ask you -- how do you define full employment? tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. mr. farage of ukip steps down. what did we see earlier? mr. miliband resigns?
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olivia: he has not yet. tom: nick clegg, a speech here at some point. top headlines, we must begin in britain, olivia. olivia: it appears prime minister david cameron will return to office, something he had not counted on. a majority in parliament for his conservative party. both are still being counted, but the bbc is forecasting that cameron put the party will win 329 of parliament 650 seats. that means cameron could govern alone without his liberal democrat coalition partner of the past five years. voters responded to the conservative message. pm cameron: i think we've had a positive response to a positive campaign about safeguarding our economy, about creating jobs about a ripple in government over the last five years, but above all, a plan for the next five years.
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olivia: laborur party leader ed miliband called the results "disappointing." people will be looking to the april jobs report for a sign that things are getting better. we will find out two hours from now whether or not that happened. economists forecast that employers added 230,000 employers workers last month. that would be a huge improvement over march's number. if senate banking chairman richard shelby has his way, banks would no longer be too big to fail. senator shelby wants to free those banks from the tough oversight capital requirements now apply to the nation's largest lenders. shelby is about to propose the biggest changes to the dodd-frank format since it was passed in 2010. among the banks that would be affected, u.s. bancorp and suntrust banks.
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brendan: the world's largest maker of agrochemicals -- significant execution risks. the combination of syngenta and monsanto would dominate. alex rodriguez has now over past -- the next is babe ruth. he is in fourth place on the all-time home run list. babe ruth's mark may be a stretch to reach this season. rodriguez needs 54 home runs to tie. now to our baseball correspondent tom keene. tom: how many asterisks are needed? olivia: i think he is tied for fifth all-time home run.
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look, i love a-rod. you will not get an impartial for me. tom: the only good news -- the red sox fired their pitching coach. two americas, perhaps three with a part of america something not in our economic discussion. lakshman achuthan has made a career of parsing the different americas. there is no formal recession. tell it to millions not enjoying a 5.5% unemployment rate. it is jobs day today the pros look at jobs differently than ecri and lakshman achuthan. how do you look at jobs they? lakshman: you are making a point of wage growth, a decline of real wages over several, several years, which is not going away. i mean, we might have cyclical and inflows to that -- tom: all gains go to corporations. lakshman: yes, there is a struggle, and you had the
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decline in gas prices a while back, and everybody suspected we would get spending because they were spending more than they were borrowing in order to keep up. tom: all right, stay with us right now. we are going to london right now. this is nick clegg of the liberal democrats, absolutely trounced. nick clegg: we had to bear in government and the most challenging of circumstances but clearly the result having been immeasurably crushing and more unkind than i could have ever feared. for that, of course, i must take responsibility and therefore i announced that i will be resigning as leader of the liberal democrats. a leadership election will not take place according to the party's rules. for the last seven years, it has been a huge privilege, an unlimited are honor to lead a party with courageous and remarkable people. the liberal democrats are a family and i will always be
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extremely proud of the good grace the work, and good humor which are political family has shown through the ups and downs of recent years. so i want to thank every member every campaigner, every counselor, and every parliamentarian for the commitments you have shown to our country and to our party. it is simply heartbreaking to see so many friends and colleagues who have served their constituents so digital diligently lose their seats abruptly -- tom: nick clegg out of cambridge, and out of the university of minnesota as well, working for years at the "financial times." brendan, this is a different part of tory labour politics. brendan: it is. the last time they entered into coalition with conservatives, they were not even supposed to be junior partner, they were supposed to be an equal partner
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with the conservatives. bbc did a great place last week on nick clegg's district, but basically saying that the students in that district to a devoted so enthusiastically for him five years ago, they were the ones who said he could not keep his promises. olivia: arguing that the lib dems mick like that he would give all the students free education, essentially. i gave him a big bounce in the polls and that is why he was able to be a kingmaker for the conservative party. i cannot believe the business sector is out gaining alexander. they all lost their seats. anyway, huge defeat for nick clegg. tom: business insider said the death of liberality in the united kingdom. what have we got at 12 noon? olivia: more coverage of incredible results from the u.k. this morning. all day long we will be covering them, but we have a special elections program coming up at
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noon eastern time anchored live from london. tom: we continue our discussion on the american economy. lakshman achuthan with us of the ecri. you mentioned median household income is not going anywhere. it is the money question for america and janet yellen. does your cycle research show an oomph? lakshman: she shifted the goal post, by the way. tom: have we seen why rising wages and your work? ken:lakshman: the inflation cycle -- they've not lead them, they follow them. there is an upturn going on. part of it you are seeing also in europe, the teacher inflation gauge for europe has now hit a three point five-year high. in the u.s., it is not quite yet, but it is starting to firm. a lot of this is that even country specific. it is happening globally. we have had an upturn starting. that is firming things.
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tom: the on implement rate is 5.5%, the opening lunch listening to these program believe that. brendan: i think the other issue is that a wage is not a wage. we are talking about median wage earners, low wage earners. lakshman: supervisors versus non-supervisors. olivia: those watching this program -- brendan: let's take it a look at this, this is from deutsche bank, that sliver of yellow in the middle is the low-wage job recovery. lakshman: yeah, the supervisory workers can get a raise nonsupervisory workers cannot. the on employment rate is very low, so if you have unemployment insurance, it is low. you look at the labor force participation -- it is very low. you not even need jobs growth. they can be anemic relative to history, and the on appointment rate can go down. if you want to point to a status to say -- we are want to raise rates, which is probably where they are at, they have got to get off of zero.
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let's look at the unemployment rate fine. tom: let's come back with lakshman achuthan. brendan: an important bellwether coming at 8:30. everybody wants in on the next alibaba. to get it, they want have to move south to the subcontinent. they have to move to india. this is "bloomberg surveillance." on bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and ♪
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tom: good morning everyone. jobs day, "bloomberg surveillance." let's get a single best chart around the world. brendan: hedge funds, private equities, vc funds, they are all looking to india. that is the subject of today's single best chart. for the fourth time this quarter, india actually tops china in terms of tech venture capital deals. this really caught my attention. there was a great piece on the terminal by anthony and george smith alexander boy basically pointing out that since alibaba everybody is trying to figure out where the next investment is going to become aware that huge unicorn will be found. not necessarily in china -- that may be a saturated market. india is no longer for outsourcing -- it is for new ideas. tom: what about the regulation? olivia: exactly, everybody is
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hoping mr. modi will list the red tape. tom: lakshman achuthan with us from ecri. there is heritage coming out of india, and it ain't pretty. lakshman: india is doing well on a cyclical basis, so it is interesting on that, but demographically, middle class and middle class spending is going to outpace china fairly soon. it is a big attraction. olivia: that is great for domestic business people but we are talking about the environment for fdi, and it is not clear to me -- i am a not on top of it at a day-to-day basis. brendan: i would argue olivia's point is valid. the basis on modi is based on more hope than reason so far. money is looking for a story. this is from the executive director at anita's capital, a mumbai-based e-commerce, looking out for a frontier market where
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that story will be repeated. they are looking for a story. lakshman: correct. people are voicing concerns about valuations. you have got interest rates not returning anything, and there is a lot of money that needs to generate some return. you know, you could get a bit of a frenzy here right? i think you are starting to wonder about that at the moment. olivia: 19% of indians are internet users. lakshman: it is amazing. olivia: interesting. lakshman: a lot of rural. olivia: photos, i picked them out, number three, prince henry receives a marriage proposal from one of his fans. he said he would get back to her on the offer. she asked for a kiss instead and what does the prince do? he snogged her. they smooched on the lips in front of fans. tom, i know this creeps you out,
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but -- tom: what is the secret service thing? brendan: i've got to say -- light hangs the head that will never wear the crown. that guy has got the best life -- no responsibility. olivia: [laughs] that girl. she is going to be telling that to her grandchildren. that tiara. you have got to love it. number two, if you're getting a little stressed out from all of the u.k. election coverage -- tom: here we go. olivia: i have got the trending hashtag #dogsatpollingstations. tom: and there were long lines, seriously. brendan: we were told you can vote in your pajamas, you can vote a drunk, but you cannot vote with your dog. olivia: it speaks a lot about human endeavors. this is where -- our creative
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outlet is cap videos and #dogs. the thing i lived for in life is photos of babies and puppies -- tom: oh, god, brendan help me. brendan: i love this video. olivia: this baby receiving snuggles from a puppy. [laughter] look at this! brendan: the puppy is settling in. lookout happy the puppy is. let's do it again. tom: do you realize around this death is something like 11 children, and we think you are nuts? [laughter] coming up in a, we go back to the united kingdom released his perspective. joining us wpp sheave executive sir martin sorrell. if you're just doing a, nick clegg is done with a liberal democrats. jobs day and the history of
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britain. good morning. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. they busy jobs day. here is olivia sterns. olivia: the fda said at bluebell
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creameries knew there was listeria in one of its plants more than two years ago, but the company did not issue any recall or stop production until his products willing to illness this year, including three deaths in kansas. theblue bell has recalled all of its products. the president said it could be months before a return. $3 million for gnocchinokia's mapping business. three german automakers are also bidding for it. america will look to the sky today to mark the 70th anniversary of ve day. world war ii era planes will fly over the capital shortly after noon. you can watch it streaming live. germany surrendered to the allies on this day in 1945. those are your top headlines. tom: they're a good. -- very good. sir martin sorrell joins us.
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liberality in england is decidedly dead edinburgh wins big but they have zero power in london. joining us now, sir martin sorrell from his offices at wpp. did the conservatives win, or did the labour party lose? which was it? sir sorrell: it was both actually. it was a tremendous night. the australian linda crosby did a very good job. in the end the most important poll, the prime minister won and won in outright majority, so given what we were thinking before and what we discussed before, tom, was quite a stored in an array, so conservatives definitely won. snp definitely won.
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ukip lost. they did win a significant part of the vote, nigel farage is gone, and the other big loser were the pollsters, tom. they made a mess of it this time around. tom: sir martin, i want to move forward the governing of the united kingdom is very different than the governing of the united states. how does prime minister cameron speak to england six months and one year on? sir sorrell: we will have scottish parliamentary elections next year and then we will have the eu referendum, which is really interesting, tom, because the snp, as i remember it, or a pro-eu party, so the lib dems were generally pro-eu, and you saw that nick clegg resigned. now, the whole focus switches to that referendum in 2016 or 2017.
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that will create some uncertainty in economically. business has to get behind that eu vote to make sure that the vote is to state in and remove that uncertainty, and i love to be ke -- and that has got to be the focus over the next few years. the next issue of the union -- how can david cameron keep it all together? his acceptance speech at whitney when he won his own seat to did not go without well for the union. that is the second issue. third issue is the economy. that actually i think won through in the end. it was the economy that won tom: the election. sir martin sorrell, how does mr. cameron speak to brussels and how does he need to engage europe in a discussion going forward? sir sorrell: for the extreme right wing of his party that are
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against the eu, he has to bring back some concessions. some did suggest that angela merkel wants some of the things that david cameron wants for britain. it will be very interesting to see the negotiation. it may be that the prime minister will come back with something that will act as a fig leaf to cover the concessions that he wants, and it will go to a referendum with a better platform for the right wing of his party. tom: let's leave it right there, sir martin sorrell, short notice from his office with a brendan greeley, this is to years out but for england, it is essentially tomorrow. brendan: the line from our editor-in-chief going into this election was that if david cameron could, with a strong mandate, that he might be able to run a table on this referendum. this actually happened. nobody thought it would. he actually came out of the election with a strong mandate.
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tom: but olivia, a huge part of the parties not want -- they want the referendum to say, "we are done with europe," right? olivia: nigel farage has lost his seat, all around europe, not just the continent of england has been the rise of the nationalist. even though they won so many votes, they did not get these seats. i agree with brendan, it is a big victory for david cameron, and david cameron's stay in the eu revises the terms which angela merkel wants as well. tom: where is sterling? $1.5427. we have got a lot with lakshman achuthan. let's switch to the jobs report with alan krueger. what is your job at ecri say now about the american economy, about our consumption, and investment? lakshman: consumption good.
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investment, bad. boiling it down. we look at the key sectors and what they are doing cyclically. overall, economy is slowing which is evident in the numbers at the beginning of the year. manufacturing, more cyclical, that goods sector of the economy, really taking it on the chin. our indicators for manufacturing are at their lowest reading it over a year. in sharp contrast, the services sector, the non-goods sector those indicators are near a 10-year high. tom: can you go to 3% gdp? lakshman: no, no, no. you cannot get there. i am sorry. i wish. tom: lakshman achuthan of ecri love to have him on, ramirez great recession call for -- remember his great recession call. sterling at $1.5428, and euro
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sterling doing really well. not forget, 12:00 noon this morning, special coverage of the u.k. election. ♪
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crush miliband and labour. the poles got it totally wrong. it is jobs day in america. an ultra accommodative said toward alan krueger's new normal? it is fix the pot holes fixed the bridges, america's goofy infrastructure non-debate. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york this.. i am tom keene. joining me olivia sterns and brendan greeley. olivia: the experts did not see this coming. david cameron is set to return as primus or after easily defeating ed miliband's -- as prime minister after easily defeating ed miliband labour party. it will allow him to -- the liberal democrats hundred mclean. last night, cameron called for unity. david cameron: i hope my party
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and i hope the government would like to lead to reclaim a mental that we should have never lost him of the mantle of one nation one united kingdom. that is how i will govern if i am fortunate enough to form a government in the coming days. olivia: it was a bruising defeat for the labor leader ed miliband and raises questions about his political future, to put it lightly. the scottish national party won 56 of the 59 seats in scotland, almost shutting out the two major parties. and we will find out more about the state of the u.s. economy in just 90 minutes from now. that is when the latest on a planet figures come out and we will see whether on march's disappointing jobs report was more than just a one-off. release at 8:30 a.m. eastern this morning. the economists we surveyed forecast that more than 240,000 jobs were added.
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some blame it on bad weather faulty seasonal adjustments, maybe report strikes, either way. nike is telling congress today when it comes to that big asia trade deal, just do it. president obama will push to the deal in a visit to nike headquarters in portland oregon. nike announced a that if congress announced a trade deal, nike will increase manufacturing here in the u.s. that could create up to 10,000 jobs directly and tens of thousands more jobs for construction and supply companies. some democrats argue that the trade deal will cost jobs and depress wages. brendan: the maker of fitness tracking wristband, not jawbone not apple, fitbit is going public. it has filed for an ipo. bloomberg news reported that fitbit could raise about $150 million in public offerings. last year, the company's sales almost tripled. in sports, tom brady does not, he is ready to return his latest
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a super bowl ring. the new england patriots quarterback said the team's championship was not tainted by the controversy over deflated balls. an nfl investigation found that brady "probably knew" got the balls had been illegally defeated. he spoke to a friendly crowd in salem, massachusetts last night when he was asked about what he thought of the probe. tom brady: it has only been 30 hours, so i have not had much time to digest it fully but when i do come i will be sure to let you know how i feel about it. [cheers and applause] brendan: brady could end up getting suspended, the patriots may face a huge fine. clear winner from the controversy, "the new york post," "the new york daily news," olivia -- olivia: "this guy has balls." brendan: it is the pun that keeps giving. tom: data check. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. it is a jobs day data check. a lot of churning in the market
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crude give the back little bit $59.23. the date calendar for "surveillance" this morning is this our we are expected to hear from ed miliband. in the 8:00 hour, near 8:00 am i believe after visiting with the income a we are scheduled to hear from mr. cameron -- excuse me. it will be a decided victory speech. right now, yes, it is jobs day but we need to focus on caroline and all going on in london. is there celebration in the streets? i mean, what do they do in london with the victory? is it, like, pubs full? caroline: if you are a conservative party supporter yes, if you are a labour party supporter, i think they may be have been a quiet cry into their drinks. we selected deadlock, instead a shock result.
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we have the conservatives with a majority, you euphoria for david cameron. with party heard from the leader of the liberal democratic party of course, who is nick clegg, he has resigned. we expect ed miliband to resign. ukip leader nigel farage has resigned as well. like we said, euphoria for david cameron. record results for the nationals in scotland. tom: who will david cameron speak to? dusty's be to the nation, does he speak to europe, does he speak to the queen? caroline: all three. i think he has got to realize some of these problems he is now facing. at the moment, there is euphoria in the market because they did not expect the majority. found up, dublin bonds euphoria -- pound up, dublin bonds up euphoria in the
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market. could the u.k. exit the eu? he has got a speech about how he wants to make changes with the u.k.'s deal with the eu to be sure that we remained in terms of the european union. across the border, he has got to speak to scotland. you've got to show the scottish nationalist party that they will not exit the united kingdom. the snp has won all but three seed in scotland. eight months ago, we only just managed to get them to stop voting to exit the united kingdom in general. this does rev up that ugly head of concern that scotland could leave the u.k. tom: carolyn, thank you so much, caroline hyde and scotland. olivia: francine did tell us two days ago that 40% undecided just two days ago. huge defeat for liberal britains, but not totally undecided.
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brendan: labour has almost completely disappeared. there is one little patch of red in that map. olivia: i am trying to figure out what it means for david cameron's economic agenda, the fact that he gets a majority versus has to form a coalition. tom: he gives a speech exactly 30. olivia: not a speech, he has to go to buckingham palace he will have -- brendan: i'm pretty sure they will clear the road. olivia: british prime ministers fly coasch. tom: our united kingdom elected coverage, look for that 12:00 noon new york time this morning. we are looking forward to some of the insights we will get at that time. it is jobs day in america. better than expected, good report, will it shifts the fed dialogue? it is by all regards a critical
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snapshot of the american economy. when carl riccadonna and with us alan krueger, professor at princeton, thank you for being patient on united kingdom coverage. carl what is the working number? carl: 30 is the consensus. i think there is a hissing sound just like a tom brady football, the manufacturing sector is losing steam. it has been in the ism for several months, the employment sector fell into a contraction, that tells us the related industry will be weak and a repeat of what we saw in march. tom: professor krueg er, what will janet yellen study the most? prof. krueger: she will look at
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labor force participation, rates growth, there is a lot to look at and it was getting boring. the reports were all -- olivia: what are you talking about, professor? we do not ever talk about anything that is remotely boring. we are all hyperventilating. we all come on and say, oh janet yellen is waiting for wage inflation. what is the needle that she has juicy move? ken: i think it has -- what is the needle that she has to see move? prof. krueger: -- tom: i was going to say i will put it out on bloomberg radio plus, this eci index is better but not back. brendan: does fed differentiate among wage earners? prof. krueger: the broad measure
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covers all just come and live the consumer price index, is measured with anything company looking at the same jobs, so it is holding a mix of jobs constantlyl. tom: carl very quickly, is it to america's? carl: it is definitely two economies right now. more pressure in the higher skilled brackets and also between the service sector and manufacturing. tom: my mail is 99% towards alan krueger within the academic debate. olivia: this brings us to our twitter question of the day. we ask you -- how do you define full employment? are you looking at the headline number, the participation rate underemployed? we want to hear your thoughts. please tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. leader of the labour party, of course a disciple of gordon brown, out of oxford, ed miliband, here he is. ed miliband: i still do, but the public voted otherwise last night. earlier today, i rang david cameron to congratulate him. i take total response billy for the results of the defeat of this election post of i am so sorry for all of these colleagues who lost their seats. bull, mercy douglas alexander,
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and all of the candidates who were defeated. they are friends, colleagues, and standardbearers for our party. they always have been, and they always will be. [applause] i also want to congratulate all of our candidates who were elected yesterday and who will help take our already forward as well. [applause] -- and who will help take our party forward as well. [applause] i want to thank those people who ran our campaign.
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it was a most united, cohesive, and enjoyable campaign i have ever been involved in. i want to thank douglas alexander, lucy powell livermore, and most of all all of you, the incredible team of the labour party. [applause] and i also today want to thank the incredible team of labour party members, activists, and all of those people who pounded the streets. [cheers and applause] friends, britain needs a strong labour party. brittany is a labour party that can rebuild after this defeat so we can have a government that
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stands up for working people. tom: ed miliband heading towards a resignation speech, as we saw from nick clegg of the liberal democrats this morning, we will continue to follow the story of course. primary us are cameron -- prime minister cameron is excited to speech. there is the resignation from ed miliband. again, cameron to speak at 8:00 a.m. on this busy day, jobs day and a stunning election of the united kingdom. stay with us worldwide. "bloomberg surveillance." ] good morning. ♪
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tom: a most interesting career to the head of the labour party, mr. miliband of a child spending time in boston. he resigns this morning as head of the labour party, as we heard nick clegg of the liberal democrats resign. brendan greeley, david cameron is not going to resign this morning, right? [laughs] brendan: the question for the labour party is that tony blair and gordon brown dragged it to
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the center, and set up watching the lessons of bill clinton. what is the new, new, new labour? tom: we get to a summary of the top headlines. here's olivia sterns. olivia: the director of the fbi issuing a warming on the islamic state. these of the extremist group was the influence in the u.s. is growing. according to "usa today," he says there are hundreds maybe thousands of people in the u.s. were currently receiving recruitment overtures or directives to attack. the militants are effectively using online platforms and leveraging social media in unprecedented ways. now to baltimore where police will face a justice department investigation. the mayor asked federal officials to find if police department is guilty of civil rights violations. an announcement is expected today. writing a rocket last week after a -- rioti erupted last week after the funeral of a man who died in policeng custody.
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and jimmy kimmel wants to send out david letterman and style. he will not air and do episode opposite of letterman's may 20 and alley. he does not want to distract viewers from watching letterman's last show. yes hosted the "late show" on cbs for 33 years. brendan: it is a recovery measure that almost everyone agrees on -- infrastructure investment. we cannot get it done -- not in europe, not in the u.s. now . alan krueger, why is it so economically obvious but economically impossible? prof. krueger: that is in at the lens question. our infrastructure is in great need of investment. we need to improve. the problem is -- how do we pay for it? that is where the gridlock has occurred. brendan: one of the things the administration has suggested that i find curious is that they want to pay for it by
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repatriating taxes -- sorry repatriating profits from abroad, a one-time shot. why do that instead of relying on a gas tax, raise it? prof. krueger: frankly the best way to pay for infrastructure is by charging the people who benefit from it. the gasoline taxes does that. the gasoline tax has stayed constant since 1993 $.18. israel turns committed were adjusted for inflation, it would be $.30. olivia: the gas tax is used for other things beside highways. prof. krueger: even if you use it for mass transit, it takes more cars off the road. brendan: carl riccadonna, we see a strange agreement on this. everybody wants a gas tax, but nobody wants to own a gas tax. carl: interestingly in new jersey, a majority of new jersey residents are in benefit of raising the gas tax of they can benefit from improved infrastructure.
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the current congress, both the senate and the house, has a severe allergy to any tax increase of any kind. olivia: you know what i have an allergy to? full-service gasoline. that is the only gasoline you can get in new jersey. carl: i will take it. new jersey gasoline is some of the cheapest and somebody takes puts it in the car for you. how do the gas tax varies -- prof. krueger: what i want to propose is have the gas tax very with the price of gasoline, so it can stabilize prices for consumers. tom: what is the response from consumers? prof. krueger: so far, i am pleased that note he has rejected it totally out of hand but we will see. [laughter] brendan: universal acclaim. we talk about eisenhower's highways, but what else we need to buy right now? prof. krueger: we need to prepare for the bigger ships coming through the panama canal, we need to improve our ports. i guess if they could do more
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maintenance on our existing roads, that has a very high payoff. brendan: carl, i was a little leading in the intro when i said all economists agree that this is the way to go. is that true? carl: it is true accepted the problem is economists try to assign to the infrastructure investment, how much do you get for the investment and whatnot. if you are expanding the highway infrastructure, putting a new runways at the airport, you can make estimates, but you have no idea what the long-term benefit is. tom: i think we will be talking about this in the coming, what, decade ahead. a headline that gets to the moment and drives the story forward to mr. cameron's comments near 8:00, moody's already questioning the debt rating of the united kingdom if they go to a referendum and they leave the euro. moody's way out in front of the dialogue. olivia: the headline for moody's says u.k. election result will
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have no impact on rating. tom: i saw a different one that went away from that -- a u.k. vote to exit eu may wait on sovereign rating. here is the prime minister and mrs. cameron at 10 downing street. they're not going to mcdonald's. they will move to the palace to meet with the queen full stop and we will get the first look at the brand-new princess, princess charlotte, but there is mr. cameron, and of course we will give you full coverage worldwide of his comments. we are speaking here roughly at 8:00. olivia sterns, there is a pageantry to move, what, less than a mile? olivia: it is a five minute drive. yes to drive down to get to buckingham palace. it is a rubberstamp ceremony, but her majesty is likely much happier to see david cameron's face then ed miliband's. tom: does the royalty have a published view? they don't do that. brendan: they do not, but they remain sovereign. they are the sovereign head of the government.
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tom: again, the pageantry within the united kingdom. for those just joining our coverage this morning, a truly stunning outcome -- liberals and labour crushed in the vote. cameron raines supreme. -- cameron reins supreme. good morning. ♪
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erns said, the undecideds with a vengeance with conservative. this is the pageantry of england.
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is it nation riveted or do they go on with their work this morning? olivia: a nation riveted by the election results. labor was trounced. went from 55 seats to it looks like under 10. a huge victory for david cameron's conservative party. honestly, the reinforcement of the scottish national party is a force to be contended with. tom: but who is with the tories? the party got crushed. labour took a hit. brendan: it was interesting to hear the speech last night. he said, we ran a positive campaign was a positive result. i don't know that is true. he ran a very negative campaign. he said beware of an alliance between scottish national party and labor. he's a beware of -- based on the possibilities of what could go wrong. tom: olivia sterns, is he alone this morning? to me that is the key question.
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olivia: it looks like david cameron will have an outright majority. tom: alan krueger with us. professor, this goes to the distinction of how we run our shop versus the parliament. cameron really can call his own show forward, right? >> he probably doesn't mind being lonely. tom: which is different from what mr. boehner or others have to face. olivia: i wonder what this means for cameron's economic agenda. the former business speaker who lost his seat yesterday did have an impact. he was outspoken against the banks. we are seeing banks shares hires -- higher. ed miliband ring control will not go through. tom: i'm going to suggest that you did wonderfully a political but most of our beers would say there is a liberal bent to alan krueger's economics. how do you come back after a
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liberal defeat like this? how do you regroup as tony blair regrouped to bring on labour victory? >> the conservative party in the case means something different than the conservative party in the u.s. tom: more middle ground. >> exactly. viewers have to appreciate that. i think they will study the election results and see what the issues were and try to position themselves better for the future. brendan: we talk about the u.k. version of the word liberal in europe, in u.k. come even that strain of thinking in the u.s. -- there economically right economically pragmatic, but they don't speak to the heart. that is a constant struggle that this kind of party stuck in the middle has. olivia: you think labour doesn't speak to the heart anymore? brendan: it honestly did not. tom: we will continue to cover cameron's visit to buckingham palace. let's get a top headlines. olivia: looking for signs the economy is getting better after
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the week report. the april jobs report at 8:30 a.m. this morning. economists forecast employers added 230,000 workers last month. that would be a huge improvement over marches number. senate banking committee richard shelby is about to propose the biggest change yet to the dodd frank bank reform. if yes his way, but two dozen midsize banks would never -- would not be considered to be difficult. he wants to free them from the tough oversight and capital requirements no applied to the nation's largest lenders. among those affected, suntrust bank. brendan: the world's largest maker of agrochemicals is saying no thanks to $45 billion takeover offer. they said undervalues the company. it would create the biggest property moguls and seeds. monsanto dominates the market.
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in baseball, another milestone for alex rodriguez. he is now pastorally mays and has babe ruth in his size. he had a home run number 661 last night and a 4-3 win over baltimore and a win over thomas bean's heart. fourth-place in the all-time home runs. tom: that was nice, but he is no ted deutch him's. i'm sorry. ted leonsis is a guy. -- ted williams is the guy. they named a tunnel after him. let me do a day to check. on this job stay, futures up 3. oil gives it up a little bit over the last 48 hours, under $60 on west texas intermediate. 59.35.
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pound-sterling, 1.5432. really quite advances. builders and others doing better than good off the cameron victory. on jobs day, a turn as we get to 8:30. olivia: i am olivia sterns here with tom keene and brendan greeley. in one hour, we will get that payroll report. economists are forecasting 228,000 new jobs were added in the month of april. joining a staffer preview is peter cook who is at the labor department. it was a big disappointment. what is the outlook for this morning? peter co the expectation among economists we surveyed his for a bounce back, but the request and said washington come on wall street and across the country, that soft patch in the first quarter. today continue? are we going to see that continue today? they're going to be questions about the strength of the
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economy going forward. their political implications for those running for president. 220,000, the implement rate takes it down, i think it will be a sigh of relief in washington that things are still on track and maybe some decisions down the road for the federal reserve in terms of the timing of any rate left off. we could see 2015 in september back on track. olivia: peter, i want to move to the west coast. the president will be in oregon south dakota, kerley, the only state in the union he has not been to. he will go to nike headquarters because he's getting a lot of support from nike for the tpp transpacific trade partnership. how difficult is it going to be for the president to get his own party on board with the trade deal? peter: it is a ready proving to be very difficult. he knows he is not going to get most of them. the question is, will he get enough to be able to move the ball forward? a good example is the state of oregon, which is one of those american states that is heavily
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dependent on exports. the senator ron wyden, he is the top democrat on the finance committee. he is really helping push this trade agenda along, try to satisfy his own democratic constituents in oregon. his counterpart jeff merkley democrat from oregon, not yet on board. even in that state, it shows you the divide within the democratic party. one of the reasons the president picked reagan and nike for this backdrop. tom: let's do some breaking news . peter cook, there's another story besides american jobs day. the bbc says david cameron has a majority in the conservatives win decisively. this is just a codification of what was said three hours ago. olivia, we moved from most likely to actually winning. still stunning, isn't it? olivia: two days ago, we knew 40% of those polled were undecided. nobody saw this coming. that is why you're seeing such a big move in the markets. this was unexpected. a huge move.
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tom: peter cook, to the response in washington, how does president obama adapt to an historic election in london? peter cook to be honest, i don't think all that much changes. barack obama and david cameron have had a pretty close working relationship. he took david cameron to the ncaa tournament. there can be no better invitation from barack obama to another world leader. i don't think that much is going to change. they were very careful not to show any sort of partiality in terms of this british election. it is the end of the day, that of a close working relationship special relationship between the u.s. and the u.k. i don't think it changes all that much with his app -- with this outcome. tom: it is amazing how these -- it is part of the angst about finding jobs. they can't find jobs outside london in the united kingdom either. >> the u.k. is recovering like the u.s. like tom: in london. >> the problem they're having in
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the u.k. is wage growth has been so weak. productivity growth -- tom: we've heard that before. >> in some sense, i think the story is similar that the economy was recovering and that helped cameron to be reelected, just like president obama. i went to the state can -- dinner when cameron can to the u.s. and the president introduced him to me and said you need to find some of the like alan, because since i hired alan the unemployed rate has come down. olivia: 5.6%? their productivity is a huge problem in their trade deficit is ballooning. >> i've heard david cameron campaigned on austerity, but then governed like he was in labour. he is a copyright ended up with budget labour advocated. >> when you look at the mix of policies after austerity, it helped lead the recovery. he is a smart guy and i hope you did learn from that. olivia: thank you, peter cook.
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joining us from the bureau of labor statistics where he will break down the jobs report live here on bloomberg tv at 8:30. also coming up later, we have an interview with the ceo of nike. ♪
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tom: jobs day. history made in london and the united kingdom. let's get to a morning rest read -- must read. olivia: the professor at harvard university's kennedy school of government is running a project syndicate about the proposed trade agreement. he says -- tom: a lot of people disagree with that statement. >> i think they raise our living standards. i think trade creates winners and losers. they used our output and productivity. i think we have policies that we could put in place doubt the losers. olivia: nike is saying this trade it will enable it to
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create jobs in the u.s.. you agree? with the tpp create jobs? >> i think onnet. brendan: but we're talking about losers and losers photo. what do we do? to the people who lose our jobs because of this, what are the policies? >> that only the workers who lose, but the businesses. i think the big threat is the business lobbying taking place by companies that want to protect some of their monopoly position in the u.s. one of the reasons why am supportive of granting the promotion is it will make the u.s. more competitive economy and i think that will be good for workers in the long-term. tom: secretary clinton like to talk about fair trade. i'm going to suggest marco rubio is one who would talk about fair trade ,to. what does fair mean? >> we have at least something of a level playing field. in this context, it means that our exports have the ability -- tom: codec did not have a level
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playing field with fuji in japan a few years back. >> rate of the auto companies don't. i think the auto companies have tremendous ground to green -- to gain. olivia: that is what president obama keeps saying, there are not a lot of fords driving around tokyo. brendan: eight years ago, barney frank gave the speech when he said what america needs is a grand bargain. the democrats need to accept trade. the republicans in return you to accept the safety net is necessary as you speak of, for the losers. this is not going to come to pass. it is not going to happen. >> companies that are more open to trade have stronger safety nets because they recognize it is necessary to help workers make a transition to growing sectors. and trade jets, nafta included labor protections, included help for trade worked as placers. -- trade for displaced workers.
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i think the agreement will ultimately have that type of assistance. olivia: does it boost wages? >> yes. olivia: all right, good news. president obama will be at night he headquarters in oregon later today. brendan: are twitter question of the day -- tom: raging questions. brendan: tweet us. good morning, it is jobs day. ♪
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tom: good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." the prime minister's car awaits outside buckingham palace as i assume tea is served with the queen. brendan: tesla things its 5 million square-foot battery factory is not going to be big enough. elon musk already has booked orders for its new storage batteries with $800 million took more than two months for the original apple fun to bring in half that much. as well know, reservations to not necessarily convert to sales. the fda says bluebell creamery's new there was listeria and one of its plants more than two years ago but the company did
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not issue recalls. three deaths in kansas. bluebell has recalled all of its products. the president says it could be months before they returned. america will look to the sky today to mark the 70th anniversary of world war ii airplanes flying over the capital shortly afternoon. you can watch them live by going to usvets.pv. surrendering on the state 1945. tom: what a morning. mcdonald's sales are out at it :00. jobs day front and center. bill gross will join us on bloomberg radio on "surveillance." front and center this morning not only historic election, but one of the great elections of the recent decades. cameron absolutely crushes the competition. the undecideds in droves moved to the prime minister. he is at buckingham palace.
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let's look to the jobs coverage. here is olivia with her twitter question of the day. olivia: how do you decide to find employment? here are the answers -- alan krueger, professor of economics at princeton, still with us on set. professor, how do you define full employment? is it the headline number? underemployment participation rate? >> it is a very good indicator.
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i think it is our best single indicator at the moment. i think there are issues about labor force participation declining. but that's what happens in recessions. it is pretty rare in recovery good a full recovery and labor force participation. the trend was downward. i think the unemployment rate is going to give us our best metric of how close we are getting. olivia: how about the underemployment? the unemployment rate is back to where it was 10 years ago, but the underemployment is still in double digits. >> with a large number of people working part-time who say they would like to work full-time. one has to take that into account as part of the slack in the economy. but that is not equivalent of someone who's completely out of work. if someone makes a transition from working part-time to full-time, that as more labor hours. labor hours are pretty close to the trend slightly above the trend, before the recession. i think when it comes to work hours, we're pretty close to on track to full employment.
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brendan: let's go back to the first response. you talked about the cyclical element of people leaving the workforce. there is also long-term secular structural problem, maybe not even a problem, but a trend. it is not just in a graphic will stop people are leaving the work force. what do you think is behind that? does it need to be fixed? >> excellent question. there are a mixture of trends taking place. about half is the aging of the population. people turned 65, 70, they leave the labor force and retire. olivia: don't get any ideas, tom. >> that was protectable before the recession. we have other developments will stop students are staying in good longer. that is positive. they will eventually join the labor force. we need to raise our educational standards and achievement in the u.s. most puzzling, labor force but dissipation of women, which has fueled the post-war rise came to
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a peak in 2000. that declined the last recovery. i think we need to look deeply about why it is that more women are not participating in the labor force and how can we make work more flexible for women? tom: how about nonfarm payrolls? 200,000 is a plus-minus benchmark. what is the significance professor krueger, of a 200,000 number? do need to sustain above that for fed action? >> the fed will look at a broad range of indicators. tom: understood. at this is the indicator. >> this is only the most important run indicator, but they will also look at insurance claims and a lot of indicators. this is a noisy indicator. the average around 50,000 per month. tom: six month moving average? >> they smooth it out. even a moving average. olivia: pointing out, there is a calendar anomaly today.
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the april report will take five weeks instead of four weeks. is there a chance we will see a big surprise in the upside? >> that is possible. the bls takes into account the number of weeks in between. they don't take into account whether it is a month that tends to have high increases naturally. it could influence the numbers. tom: a guy named ben bernanke he said there are serious effects of we raise rates now. maybe not go up in a measured ray -- wait, but how do you respond to that pressure? >> the fed good move to early or move too late. i think the risk of moving too late is not as great as the risk of moving too early. i'd rather err on the side of a bit of caution. the worst thing, they could raise rates are much early, slow the recovery, that have to go back to some extraordinary measures again.
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they are faced with this conundrum, as they always are, at a turning point. the good news is, the economy doesn't to be on the path -- tom: do have a surveillance dollar jar on the desk for every time we hear the word "conundrum"? brendan: we can as long as we have the dollar jar every time the story we have the word "adult." we're going to take a look at our agenda. these are the stories shaping the day. tom: line without question is the u.k. election. it continues, the drama continues with prime minister cameron meeting with the queen right now. you will then migrate back to a very important speech. we will have that for you in the 8:00 hour worldwide on bloomberg television. brendan: i'm reading from the cabinet manual of the u.k. the harman is the supreme -- the sovereign is the fount of honor.
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tom: never heard that phrase. brendan: the fount of honor. tom: u.k. election coverage as the story and full. miliband resigns. klegg resigns. many others are out the door. what a stunning election. i can't think of an equivalent in the u.s. olivia: a huge surprise. my agenda, the 70th anniversary of victory day from world war ii. the 70th anniversary of the day when germany surrendered in 1945. there is going to be a huge celebration, parades, military displays in st. petersburg over the weekend. i noticeably absent will be western european leaders. let's get back to our live picture. david cameron getting back -- get out of his car. tom: do think princess charlotte was there? olivia: i don't know. that was a quick meeting with
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the queen. she congratulated him. well earned because he does in fact now have the surprise majority. we were discussing all the possible scenarios of a hung parliament. tom: does he drive off in a jaguar? brendan: my agenda is olivia sterns, to whom we bid a fond and bittersweet farewell. she has been with us for several months. she is moving on to another job at bloomberg. news us -- needless to say, this promotion we can talk about right now. olivia: what a horrible picture. brendan: we will miss you desperately. olivia: i will miss both of you very much. it is been wonderful fun. i need to get some more sleep. brendan: god love you for that. olivia: i love you guys. brendan: will you let me know what it is like to sleep? olivia: it is been pleasant to have an adult conversation every morning with you at 6:00 a.m. in
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an argument with all of you at 5:00 a.m. tom: alan krueger continues. bill gross with us on the radio. here is the prime minister. ♪
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brendan: betty: good morning. we have a great show ahead for you on this job stay. today, the jobs report will
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signal whether we are all clear in the economy. roger altman be with us to help break this down alongside his friends. another big brain on jobs. princeton university economics professor alan krueger. the jobs data is out in half an hour. economic advisor chairman will be giving his take on the numbers right after they have been released at 8:30 a.m. prime minister david cameron who has won reelection, on his way back to 10 downing street after being confirmed as the prime minister by the queen at buckingham palace. there is the car. they have just left buckingham palace where he was confirmed by the queen. he will be making some remarks at 10 downing street in his does he just arrived, in fact. or his


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