tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 4, 2015 10:00am-11:01am EDT
poll shows donald trump with double the support of his closest rival. erik: disney has an espn problem. have peaked but more and more customers cutting the core when they learn about bob plans for the sports network when he reports earnings after the closing bell. farm accused of selling quality onions and calling them the dahlia. -- vadallia. ♪ good morning, everybody. i am olivia sterns. orders are out. julie hyman and it is for the numbers. in lineactory orders with an increase of 1.8% in june. that is higher than the -1% reading that was recorded the prior month now revised on 12 a
1.1% decline. an improvement in factory orders .uring the month if you exclude transportation, an increase of half a percent into an improvement. either accounts and improvement here. erik: thank you very much. the latest on the economy, or at least economic data from julie hyman. a look at what is taking news this morning. scheier making an unsolicited bid for this monopoly in hopes of a company focusing on diseases. 30 billion in stocks. 30%ier says it represents premium and values. there is no deal imminent right now. scheier says they have declined discussions over the proposal. spun off by baxter international
just last month olivia:. team health holdings expanding its reach in the medical field. 1.6all caps deal is worth billion dollars. the deal represents a premium of 37% over ipc closing price yesterday. team health says it expands its ability -- facility and doctors. be results. one dollar 22 cents per share, 32 cents better than estimate. sales in line with x dictations driving nearly 7.5%. narrowed the full-year forecast. before your raising forecast after reporting profits that beat analysts estimate. aetna. last month they agreed to by humana.
thus farve gained 28% this year. the trouble in greek thought that defense one day after the worst 11 selloff in almost 30 years. shares fell by as much as 5% before recovering a bit. the benchmark l 16% yesterday, the first day of trading after a five-week shutdown brought on by the nation's debt crisis. >> the greek banks and -- banking system is key to getting back to growth. they have to capitalize the major banks quickly. they have major problems with the nonperforming. unless you get the greek banks open lending, no hope for them to succeed. erik: bank stocks down 30%. trading 58 stocks last -- yesterday. einhorn has said greenlight capital investment portfolio dropped by nearly 6% in the month of july and the losses were broad-based. here is einhorn on the conference call earlier. david: the overall market
environment has become acutely unfavorable for the investment strategy. while we could've done better in a couple of spots, we do not expect to do well when investors shun value in favor of momentum. we have experienced this in dust before and in each case the short term has been painful. as as before, we expected to improve and recover. painful indeed. the head of greenlight capital said it was the worst month for the company's portfolio since 2008. there goes our top stories. steadyrude oil holding of around $46 per barrel after falling by more than 4% yesterday. prices down 25% since may. a fair market, inside a bear market. prices go fromo here? joining us from houston and he let out, president of without oil associates. lipau associates.
>> i think we will see a short-term recovery and decline in production. early 2016, i see $40 per barrel. erik: why $40 per barrel? a supply problem, demand problem for both? supply is really a problem. what you are seeing is the spectacular success of the producers in the u.s., increasing production at a rate much faster than the market can absorb it. world oil demand is it acted to grow up -- go up another million and 2016 but we will have to wait for it to soak up the excess supply. erik: are you not concerned, speaking of demand, about china? aboute been speaking concerns expressed by bmw and toyota about the case of china car sales. gambling revenue in macau down. you are of course familiar with what is going on in the chinese
doc market. a lot of people say if you added up to just the chinese economy is slower than what chinese want and people thoughts. that would have implications for chinese oil demand certainly. >> i am concerned, but probably not as much as the rest of the market because the key is the chinese economy is still growing. when i look and see automobile sales of 22 million cars just slightly off from 2014, i am thinking it is 200,002 300,000 per barrels of gasoline. that is quite a bit of demand. 300,000.0 to olivia: i think what eric is getting at is we've seen a broad selloff. a lot of analysts tell us they are worried about the chinese economy. when you mention production, i want to dig into that other. we have seen greg count ball off option -- rig count fall
-- follow-up sharply. why is that? >> we have not seen production decline in the numbers really until last week came out with production number showing 9.5 down 200,000 per day from the april figures of 9.7. we are beginning to see that impact of a decline in rig counts, but some of that offset by the decrease in the gulf of mexico production, where all of those investments made years ago are starting to come online. certainly the gulf of mexico accounts for some of the offset. i have cannot divorce apply conditional patch? is it because prices are falling fast enough that some of these producers can keep pace and actually a solvent enough to continue producing? >> i think that is exactly right.
squeezed a lot of cost out of the system. in the beginning we thought they were just cut 20%. now we are seeing more like 30 and 40%. when you see companies say that the cost of a well in north to $17drop from 13 million. the department of mineral resources in north dakota just came out last week with new rake even prices the tween 24 and $26 per barrel in the most prolific the market has to get pots to those types of lower breakeven figures, thinking maybe more oil will come out in the fourth quarter, not less. is aa: when realisticly iranian oil comeback to the market? >> we should not expect a big amount of iranian oil until early 2016. we think there will be some leakage, given what is on the floating storage, estimated to be 30 billion per day. not until the iaea comes out
with a report in september two we expect iranian oil in a big way. -- do we expect iranian oil in a big way. are: what other factors going to help to either upset the supply demand imbalance one -- if another or if we do we look ahead 6-12 months from now? >> if we see iraq produce as well as libya -- as well as iran. -- as as things libya things are in libya, if they could get their act together, we could see demand adding to the overall supply situation. market iswhat the hoping for is the decline transfers to lower production in the u.s., and that the same time demand continues to increase throughout the world.
i think 2016 will be a rather weak year for oil prices. the spreadthat mean between brent and wti will narrow over that time? itironically, i think depends on which quarter you are looking at. i think in the near term, the spread will they wrote. as we get into the first quarter and third quarter, the refinery maintenance season will reduce demand. -- i think in the near term this spread welill widen. towill widen the spread back seven dollars-nine dollars per barrel in the first quarter. after that, we could see a gradual narrowing as refiners pick up their run. olivia: currently trading half the price they were 12 months ago. thank you for your time. andy lipow from houston. to remember for disney's film studio, posting to billion dollars in revenue 2" in part.vengers
olivia: good morning, everyone. welcome back to the bloomberg "market day." i am olivia sterns. erik: i am erik schatzker. stocks are on the move. julie hyman here to tell us what is going on. julie: i want to start with coach. we talked about this talk yesterday, and michael kors. coach is out. the numbers were better than analysts had as made it. they weren't rates. the company earnings to come out better than estimated. sales down 19%. analysts were looking for a drop of 21%.
the ceo saying the new product coach has come out is resonated with customers. take a look at the bloomberg terminal. we have seen these big declines. if that's not updated with the latest number, but seeing a little bit of slowing of declines. last order at 23% drop in sales. this quarter 19%. the trend a little bit better. talking about the trend that cvs as well. narrowing the full-year earnings for fast, bringing down the top end of the or cast. lowing.ales growth retail sales up 2.2% of the rising 2.9% in the first quarter. we just looked at coach. numbers.ooked at its cvs on a look at yes -- comparable sales basis. we saw an improvement.
you can see the slowdown in growth we have seen down to happen percent increase in the most recent order. as we talk about this up-and-down story in the market's day based on earnings, which equals a mixed picture, i got another good one, regeneron, which makes an eye treatment, that treatment doing well. shares of 7% after the company's earnings beat estimates and shares beat estimates. looks like the forecast better than analysts estimated. finally, we have got allstate, the largest click -- largest traded car and home insurer down by the most in six years. profit miss analysts estimate. apparently during the order the company gave guidance as to some of its losses. the numbers even worse than it had guided. big day. 30 companies out with earnings today. not big numbers.
overall equals a drop in the market. firefighters in northern california trying to and their ground against a massive wildfire. the task daunting and the blaze jumped containment line and grew to nearly 97 square miles. at least 37,000 people have been advised to evacuate. -- 37 people. a new poll shows donald trump leading the republican presidential field i very wide margin. trump is act by 21% of those we survey. head into the party's first televised debate this week, jeb bush in second place with just 10% of the vote in wisconsin governor scott walker in third base with 8%. poll 500 polls who identified as republicans.
even though we are a long way away from the election of 2016, the 17 republican presidential candidates are watching these polls closely. pushing rick perry and louisiana governor bobby jindal into an earlier, less visible event. this will be a typically busy day barack obama, filled with readings in meetings that the president's 54th earth day. like most presidents, he has a lot more gray-haired than when he took office. when he took the old office and he became the fifth youngest president to enter the white house ever. those are your top stories. i think we can say happy birthday, mr. president. erik: why not? likea: sounds a little bit marilyn monroe. erik: a great year for disney shareholders. the stock up almost 30%.
company haslagship been ratings jump with a weakness in the cable business. led by the cash cow, espn. isvia: hard to believe it being hit hard by court cutters. it has lost 3.2 million customers. now thinking about offering the customers outside of the standard cable bundle. earnings after the bell. here with a preview was paul sweeney. he joins us on set. going to get espn over-the-top? rather thansooner later. he is can realizes they have a huge cash cow for the disney company. the reality is consumers are consuming media differently. , gettingcutting or more and more content over the internet. i think even he has and cannot fight that. they are thinking about how much concept of a put direct to
consumers online. i do not think you will see all of the high-priced sports content go direct to consumers, but you will see espn more direct line to consumers pretty soon. following hbo in cbs. i think that could be the new growth story. media companies are treading a very fine line trying to protect their core ecosystem today, the cable district leaders and satellite district leaders. that deliver so much value and cash. they recognize they have to evolve and go to where the viewers are going. viewers are leaving the bundle, shaving the court and going more toward the netflix of the world. they need to go there but need to make sure they get paid. erik: talk to us about the struggle that goes on inside a company like disney. the conversations with the board in the ceo, bob iger. you talk about the risk, not
biting the hand that feeds you. cannibalizing your own revenue. these are very real issues that companies like disney have to confront. they do. the good news for disney investors is disney has really embraced technology. that is in part due to the fact that the largest shareholder was steve jobs. if bob iger -- bob iger and his team have always embraced tech. they were one of the first with the espn app, downloaded a gazillion times. they really do embraced technology. i think they will continue to do that here. tok: how do you say goodbye 660 sub? >> that is right. they have made their products available to some of these as well. making the big leap going direct to consumer outside the cave to the bundle. that will be interesting.
i think the discussion will be what content do we put out of the bundle and provide and how 660 sl isice if your? great in the pay-tv world? great when -- little bit different when you go direct. olivia: how about the amusement park? the theme park? >> it continues to be a great business for disney. they continue year after year to invest serious capital. that is because they get a very good return. a great return on the park, cruise ships and the biggest business will be in shanghai. opening up a big business shanghai. huge effect on the parks business. that has been a great business for them. we got great news out of comcast last week. there's been park -- theme park is this a universal great story. comcast opening of
hogwarts. that has to be a huge threat. >> it is. for the first time in orlando and southern, one you there is a credible, real competitor investing in the business. disney says what is good for orlando is good for disney. we will have to see. olivia: for those of you living on another planet, hogwarts the boarding school of harry potter. erik: still ahead, steve ratner tells us how the baby boomers are making things difficult for the millenial's. ♪
baby boomers are going behind -- leaving behind for their children. >> and every other generation people have said i have my kids coming, kids are coming, we have to make sure we take care of fiscally sound policy, leave them a strong economy. that has not been happening. we left them a really weak situation. eak situation, true. i am not so sure i agree with him. are innt is millenial's a desperate situation because they have masses of student debt. real incomes lower than they were for people at a similar age 10 years ago, 20 years ago and does not the situation, the prospect improving. youth unemployment huge issue. 71% of millennial's now graduate with that compared to 46% just 20 years ago.
by the time they get to 25, they are getting jobs. the unemployment rate is only 5.7%, just 30 basis points above the national unemployment level. olivia: they are still graduating with $35,000 in debt. i am not sure those jobs even pay that much. his bigat is one of concerns, people are not making as much as they use to in real terms. olivia: great conversation. check out the conversation with steve ratner online. erik: this is the point in the show where i say goodbye. ♪ olivia: see you tomorrow. much more coming up with donald trump reading the polls. don't go away. -- leading the polls.
rethink profitability goal at the automaking division. the world biggest maker of luxury cars is not in panic mode just quite yet. expects the units to be 8%-10% of sales. a cooling economy and stock market rout have discourage customers for making large purchases, bmw biggest national sales market. john kerry in single or today where he called her countries negotiating a major pacific trade deal to overcome their differences. he said that transpacific partnership would benefit people all nations and serve as a model or responsible will industry and e-commerce. toevery participant want comply with environmental standards. every participant will have to refrain from using underage .orkers, unsafe work basis every participant will have to ensure the state owned companies are competing rarely with one that are privately owned. and every artist paint will have to write trade related bribery
and corruption. ensure free and open digital trade and ensure safeguard intellectual property. the comments come days after trade ministers failed to seal the accord at top in hawaii . russia's foreign ministry says it is submitting a bid for the u.n. for large x dances of the arctic. russia now claiming more than 463,000 miles of sea shall be expended more than 300 50 not all miles from shore. russia, the u.s. canada denmark and norway trying to assert jurisdiction over parts of the arctic. believed to hold up a quarter of the planets undiscovered oil and gas. those were your top stories at this hour. still to come, much more, including the s&p energy index down 30% over the past 12 months, but stopped still paying high dividend yields. is it time to buy back in.
challenge political leaders. they meet this week to discuss the ruling economic agenda. the plunge could change the plans. what is twitter worth? shares falling to an all-time low. the company says not to expect substantial user growth anytime soon either. could that put the company in play? today is the day. the 17 republican presidential candidates will find out who gets to be on stage for the first of eight thursday night. fox news has that they will only invite the ones who finish in the top 10 and an average of recent surveys. in a new poll released by bloomberg politics, donald trump once again dominating the field. placesh in second followed by scott walker and mike huckabee. carly fiorina he and rick santorum among the candidates who will likely be left out of the primetime debate. let's look at all the latest political news now with josh green, bloomberg businessweek
anional correspondent and --lyst from that kerry and obama political campaign. joining us from the bureau in washington. a lot of us here in the media have been making light of donald trump candidacy for president. he now has a double-digit, maintaining a double-digit lead in the polls. it is now time to take donald ?rump run seriously cap iti don't we have to take all that seriously. yes, he is running their far ahead. in the same polls that have those ahead, where you also ask it people like him or not, generally they came back with the risk wants, no, i don't like him, and he is allowed not. i think the question for the candidates going to be in the debate with him, do they try to engage him and get into the media cycle with him, or do they act more like a statesman?
someone who will be in it for the long term? they can come across well, but they may not break well. some do need name recognition to go up. olivia: why do you think donald trump is still dominating the polls here? is it just a celebrity factor echo >> not at all. he basically appeals to every single demographics of regard republicans. rich, poor, college educated,-educated self identified conservatives, tea party groups and the only narrowly -- and only narrowly in second place against moderate republican voters. he is the purest expression of republican policy preferences and republicans preferred attitudes about washington elites and democrats so it makes a certain kind of sense he would be dominating republican field and the way our new poll shows he is. that is really interesting. i did not realize he had lost
the term in the field. i'm thinking of ted cruz, rick santorum and the like. olivia: that is a hug -- >> that is a huge open question. i do not see trump going the distance as a republican nominee. generally people got out of the race as they run out of money. that is probably not going to be the issue for him. he could continue as an independent. he could draw strongly for a democratic nominee. if he is not going to be the nominee, which once people get those are in the actual voting, it seems unlikely he will represent the party, the republican party is really searching or the soul. do they go for someone more establishment like a bush, someone considered an outsider like a walker, or someone who has been trying to go hard right like ted cruz? olivia: let's cross party. vice president running
for president mean for hillary clinton? >> i don't think it will mean anything at all, really. i think it is a purely media concocted phenomenon. there is absolutely no rationale whatsoever for joe biden candidacy seriously does not draw a group of supporters that hillary clinton is not already drawing. he will not get the far left fouled away bernie sanders is. probably not going to get african-american his anecdote or the female vote. hillary clinton's polling well among all of them. i think they are bored with the government ethics toward. here comes this i think tony biden phenomenon. phony biden phenomenon. olivia: what a lot of people like about joe biden is he is a straight talker. perhaps the same appeal that will bode well for him on the dem ticket. ?hat do you think yo
>> there is something to that. trump barely has a campaign. just cap him around, get some cameras on him. as we pointed out, the media gets tired of covering hillary all of that time. he could be someone that phase out there for a little while. i do think it is a value that he has in the field, sanders and o'malley and cheesy not really pushing clinton forward. there is always value in primaries to have to rush out the ideas. he could add the value in the primary. olivia: would you like to see him run? >> i think i could be a very interesting fall. olivia: could he perhaps be a backup plan for the democrats in e-mailse comes out of from the state department from hillary clinton's e-mail account? >> in theory, sure. gravitas, great track record. intainly would be a grown up the field if he decides to run. hard to believe that some e-mail
will take down hillary clinton and joe biden will have to leap into the race to save the democratic party. fun to talk about in august, but i think it will not be a name anyone is talking about. do you think there is another candidate out there that offer toa viable hillary clinton? >> note. -- nope. olivia: thank you very much, josh green joining us from the bureau in washington. , includinguch more energy stocks that have been hit hard along with the price of oil. if you are invested, it may not be all bad news. paying some pretty nice dividends. michael regan joins us next. ♪
olivia: welcome back to the bloomberg "market day." one hour to the trading session in the u.s.. time to the you caught up on the market around the world. we start in europe. we are seeing stocks drop in europe today, snapping the five-day rally we saw for the stock 600. taking a look at the markets across europe, largely lost as are seeing at the moment. -- stoxx 600. coursee a ibex and of the athens stock exchange actually leading the losses in europe today. the athens stock exchange down by 1.2%. nothing compared to the 16% drop we saw yesterday overall. it dropped as much as 20 8% at one point. i just want to drill down a little into the athens stock
exchange for you. this is the second day of trading after it was his end it for five weeks. there have been some restrictions, but look at this. quite spectacular drop. down for a second day. national bank also down. we have seen this happen impact on the stoxx 600. the equity benchmark for europe overall. i show you the distribution of industry roots here. a little more mixed than earlier. oil and gas leading the losses. basic materials gaining, up about .4%. i will show you financials down. of course we have seen commodities, oil, copper, gold rebounding today. that is probably why we've seen basic cereals impact there.
a look at the u.s. averages. the earnings pulling and pushing the major averages. i did want to mention one big important mover today. that is apple shares pulling back once again, going even more deep below the 200 day moving average. losses accelerating. the opening bell down about half this much. apple shares continuing to push lower. no fundamental news. apple now in a correction, meeting and has sold off more than 10% from the record high back in february. what effect did this have? a story on the bloomberg terminal talking about the effect of dow because it went into that average at the end of march and it isolated. i wanted to talk about the effect of the s&p. look at it since february 25 when it was not a record from
the s&p 500 going into today down half a percent. if you take out apple, that's a crime drops .10%. if you look at the s&p i.t., down more than 1.5% that time. apple is up .9%. that gives you a sense of the magnitude of apple's importance in the major averages. elsewhere, i want to look at commodities because we are seeing a rebound. a little bit of a breather day after the big decline -- decline in commodities. all trading higher, seeing a rebound. we are seeing a reversal in the treasury market as well. recently we are yields going slower today. going up a little bit. great story about apple. we are done a couple of stories about how it is a really shallow rally. territory.ect of
meantime, in asia, the shanghai composite amy .7%, snapping a three-day drop. amid thei in the red commodities route julie was just talking about. one big story from the region, chinese regulators making a fresh bid. the stock market plunge. brokerages have halted the businesses after the nations regulators tightened rules. ito stopping spoofing, including citadel securities. more from hong kong. suspendedthe account by chinese regulators. the company will offer a normally from its offices and continue to comply with all local laws. china has put the pressure on spoofing, the way to shore of investor confidence amid a stock route. making an order and then canceling to move stocks. well-known after prosecutors set of london traders use of a strategy led to the flash crash
2010. regulators have added restrictions to shortselling in the mainland. investors who borrow shares now wait until the next day to pay back the loan. mong pointed -- reported from hong kong. united airlines joining delta and the innings big game trophies as freight. i did not know you could ship animal carcasses. the carriers making this move after the killing of protective onion that generated global outrage. delta and united will relive it transportation of trouble is from elephants, rhinos, and water buffalo in addition to lions. speaking of lion. ty has created a settled the lyons stuffed animal in memory of the famous caps on -- by an american tourist in zimbabwe. 100% of the profit will go to the wildlife conservation research unit at oxford, the
groups being him when he was killed by the dentist from minnesota. to believe see it it, another way to catch the perfect way. robbie madison has tricked up his motorbike so he conserves. madison and french polynesia using his highly modified cycle with skis attached to the cycle. two years of training to make it make it allg -- to happen. it looks seriously cool. this are your stories at hour. energy stocks in the s&p 500 have taken a beating, tumbling more than 31% since the oil crash began last summer. the group accounts for 7% of the index market cap. that is the least in more than a decade. but dividends are another story. the dividend yield the third highest paying route among the 10 main industry.
michael regan bloomberg stock editor and joins us now on set. obviously oil stock, energy stocks sold off of paying big dividends. an they worth it? >> unusual situation. you are usually looking at , telecom. unusual situation to see the cyclical industry, now the third highest. if you look at the blue-chip, exxon mobil and chevron both highestts, chevron now yielding dividend stock in the doubt. i think chevron -- olivia: what kind of dividend? >> chevron almost 4%. exxon mobil about 5%. the highest for chevron versus treasuries and all the records we have going back to the early 1990's. howhe question obviously is -- olivia: is a 30% stock drop
worth of 5% dividend yield? >> and well lit drop further? if you buy today, will it keep dropping? pretty much impossible western to answer. will these companies cut their dividends? you can have a little bit of confidence they probably want -- won't. oil had a much bigger collapse after the financial crisis than it is having even though. chevron and exxon were able to grow the dividend. both of what is called the aristocrats index, companies that increase their dividends for 25 years. regardless of how bad the dividend is doing. they will still cut the dividend. >> exxon is cutting the buyback program in half. on a conference all they said we are committed to growing the dividend. that 3% real good even get higher if they are able to grow the dividend. that is incredible.
they will cut the buyback but still pay the dividend. is right. being an aristocrat is a bragging rights a lot of companies like to have. you want to be known as a reliable hair of dividend. hard to imagine they will cut the dividend, especially 2009. obviously a risk. the greater risk is share prices go down. when he tried to sell this talk, you are at a loss, but can collect 3% every year. olivia: what is the most recent crop of analysts note? do analyst inc. prices have hit bottom -- think prices have hit bottom? >> a lot of people try to make that call. not many people making that call. i was reading a note from gina martin adams. she said there has been a lot of focus on some live, but she believes demand is a big story. obviously the chinese economy plays into that. a lot of waiting to see more confirmation the economy will
olivia: i'm olivia sterns. bill gates is most -- knows a thing or two about software. microsoft made him the world's richest man. his business acumen may not apply to tell why. p one of the best stories i was able to find so far today on the bloomberg. not know but dahlia onions are protected by federal law. onions are protected
by federal law. just like parmesan cheese and italy, unless you actually grow these onions in the area in georgia, selfies georgette that vidallagnated as the area you are out of luck. his company paid sick leave i'm million dollars for a small tract of land in the country. unfortunately they were spotted delivering onions early to the market. everyone else in the neighborhood that what are they doing over there at this hanley farm we are not doing to get the onions to market earlier? turns out those onions apparently were coming from florida. they were organic, yellow onions. the state agriculture commission had a back and forth with them. those onions rotted, and apparently you are not allowed dallia onionsn-vi
into the same packing facility. olivia: sure. alleged mis-restaurant -- misrepresentation. what is the world's richest man doing growing onions? pimm: mixing assets. nothing to do with his foundation. many companies owned farmland. this farmland happens to be part really rich because it has the soil that i believe has less sulfur, and as a result, it produces the sweeter onion. olivia: fascinating. i would like to see you in a field with those. great story. appreciate it. pimm fox back in just a few minutes with much more on the bloomberg "market day." including our conversation with cheryl when done to explain what is driving a huge correction in
will the government help investors who lost money? be aa: could twitter takeover target? sure sitting in all-time low yesterday and some investors think jack dorsey is purposely trying to make the company more attractive to potential suitors. pimm: we all know people in los angeles hate the traffic, but could driverless cars transform the city of angels? olivia: good morning. i'm olivia sterns. pimm: i'm pimm fox. we are 90 minutes into the trading day. let's take a look at equities -- the dow jones industrial average lower by 26 points. the s&p 500 lower by two points