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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  August 20, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT

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francine: minutes from the fomc meeting reveal continued concerns over slightest inflation. it's a time to say goodbye to a september rate hike? manus: european nations ratified the bailout. francine: the emerging markets rout defense as stocks had for their lowest close since 2009. welcome to "the pulse." i'm francine lacqua. manus: i'm manus cranny.
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coming up later, the strong frank puts pressure on swiss employers. we will be speaking to the countries economy minister johann schneider-ammann. at 10:10 a.m. francine: first this morning, minutes from the fed's in july show janet yellen and officials are concerned about low inflation is. in improving job market is bringing them closer to the first interest rate increase in a decade to manus: mike mckee has been taking a closer look. mike: it is all about inflation now. teresad officials met go, most judge the conditions for policy farming had not yet been achieved, but they noticed that conditions were approaching that point. what was missing? prices what continue to move up. to seembers continued downside risks from the
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possibility of further dollar appreciations and declined to commodity prices. in addition, several noted tighter legal markets -- labor markets had not yet pushed up wages. theyt all members indicate would need to see more evidence that economic growth was sufficiently strong for them to feel confident inflation would return to their 2% target. again, this was three weeks ago, before the latest plunge in oil and before china's devaluation pushed the dollar higher. at that time, some emphasized the economy had made progress over the past two years, and they felt conditions for a rate increase as having been met. ae member, however, indicated readiness to take a step at that meeting that was willing to wait for additional data. there will be a lot of it between now and the september 17 meeting, including more numbers on jobs and inflation.
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focused on a now december lift off, but the only thing you can really say is that a data dependent fed remain so. manus: that brings us to our twitter question of the day. is the fed brave enough to hike in september? francine: now, let's ask our next guest. who looks after 80 billion pounds. great to have you on the program. in, hike or not to hike september? long wayr is a away. if the market snap back into a more positive train of mine, if we going to the meeting with stock prices rising, it is still possible. we are talking about december as well now. and i think the key point for
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the minutes there was that almost all members want to see signs of inflation picking up. manus: this comes back to a great phrase i picked up yesterday when i was off for my troubles and norway with this -- the sovereign wealth fund. central bankers are more patients than markets. that is what the head -- francine: they do not have money in the game. manus: their perspective was a bit different. are they brave? there is no trigger for them to go in september, is there? apart from credibility. trevor: we're linking the marcus to central banking. towe are linking markets central banking. but what you have got to bear in mind is inflation is picking up from a really low level and it is crawling its way back towards targets from below. it is not your usual kind of
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inflationary pickup. i think we have an environment where you might see the fed possibly in september or more likely maybe in december. and then you have got a situation where it does not feel ore the beginning of a 1994 1999. there is a window. if you are central banker itching to raise rates, you've g ot a little window where growth is ok, inflation is picking up, but with china devaluing, oil falling it does not feel like this is a big turnaround. francine: once you hike, what do you do? manus: then you look around. you are data dependent. trevor: it is not the environment where you expect a hike in every meeting. just because inflation is not confidenceenough, if returns, you could see a few rate hikes. the bank of england would follow the fed not too long afterwards. see what happens to you guys. race at theorse
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moment between the fed and the bank of england. no one else is close to hiking. manus: that has ramifications. dollar hands -- and sterling have been strong. they have been the vanguards in terms of economics, currency, and markets. what they does has huge ripple and contagion effect. trevor: yeah. i think from a currency perspective, we have been long the dollar and long sterling for a long time now. i think that will continue to be the right place to be. the challenge is, of course, what the fed does has ramifications globally, particularly emerging markets. the fed has to have stomach to raise interest rates because of domestic inflation pressures, even though there will be other countries around the world squealing because a stronger dollar, falling commodity prices combination if you are an emerging economy,
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that needs dollar financing to get things going. francine: if you are exporter, lower oil prices it also a benefit. unless you are an oil producer, you should benefit. trevor: the oil producers are also the commodity produces, which are being hurt more by chinese devaluation then helped. crosshairs at the moment. if you are part of an emerging lconomy that is -- a lower oi prices good for the u.s. consumer. japan really fits that bill. they buy in commodities. they turn them into gadgets and cars and sell them to americans. manus: we have got citi calling oil at $32, back to 2008. trevor: i remember that. gary: we could be back, shilling says we could be back
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to $10 to $20. what is your view? not like too call levels but i wouldn't be long. it is like the 1990's. you have a big economy that was driving inflationary pressures. china -- the rest ofot the world awash with liquidity. it is not necessarily bearish for the developed stock markets. for emerging stock markets, it is negative and commodities are negative. if china's devaluation does so much for the economy that they are back on track, the whole thing turns around. francine: and that means implications for all of us. thanks so much. stays, and wer
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will be talking about greece. and japan. manus: here is a look at what else is on our radar. greece is said to have ordered a thebillion euro payment to ecb. it comes after european parliament's backs the bailout. the country is receiving 13 billion euro today. francine: oil is on the slide again. inventories were expected to barrels.20,000 slumped 30% since the year's closing peak in june. citigroup says it could fall to close last seen during the financial crisis when oil was just $32. manus: the international monetary fund has pushed back the earliest date that china's yuan can join the lender's basket of reserve currencies. the imf made the decision last tuesday, the data yuan fell the
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most in two decades, as china devalue the currency that francine: qantas says it is buying 8 dreamliner's and will return money to shareholders to read that came as the company posted its strongest full year earnings since alan joyce was at the helm. shut down its biggest source of production and china. another plant will lose output due to last week's explosion in the city of tianjin. it has emerged as one of the hardest hit carmakers at a port holding toxic material which killed 100 people. francine: germany could receive as many as 800,000 people between war on poverty. alkans accountb for most of the increase. manus: meanwhile -- are set to set up a joint command with
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border police. to stop illegal migrants trying to enter britain through the chunnel. will sign off on it during a meeting at the french port town later. francine: payday for greece. the country waits for a bailout cash to make an ecb payment. the latest after the break. ♪
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manus: welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv, streaming on, your tablet and phone. francine: greece has given the order to repay the ecb. our correspondent hans nichols is standing by in berlin. hans, the question is -- what now? they have gotten money to sweep up their bills. some money being set aside towards the banks. >> next? money has to go out the door. we are waiting for confirmation from the central bank's payment has been received. what we are getting from an official close to the greek government is it that has been sent. once we have confirmation. we will see what the first trash looks like. there is 26 billion in the firs t tranche. 13 billion four gree -- for gr eek coffers.
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then there is a payment they could get in november. what we saw yesterday is angela merkel containing a rebellion virtue lost 53 members of her voting block in july on the authorization. she lost a few more. then in the netherlands, you did not have a vote authorizing it. the cabinet there said, we can go ahead and authorize his ourselves. then someone introduced a motion saying let's take that back and repeal that cared and that vote failed by a pretty hefty margin. ter, the prime minister, survived his vote of no-confidence. only 13 vote against him. all the government are in place. we have to see what happens in athens. will there be new elections in september october? who leaves the government? tsipras find a coalition? troicka. a berlin
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hans: this was laugh out loud funny. they looked at the economy and asked what if the troicka visited in berlin? among the things they talk about, was maybe opening up stores on sunday. maybe having pharmacies be a little bit more liberalized, where where you sell some overpowering the medicine -- over the counter medicine. selling regional airports. some unprofitable regional airports. probably my favorite one in there -- removing the meister's title -- from plumbers and electricity. on social down welfare payments, those families with children would get a lot less money in germany. germany has a very generous social welfare, as they try to counteract their demographic trends. francine: hans, thank you so
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much. i love that story. i wish i spoke german today to read it. it is a great satire. love theu have got to irony. let's continue the conversation and bring in our guest, trevor greetham, the head of asset strategy at moral london. there is a certain amount of -- from the germans. they have restrictive work practices themselves. trevor: that goes to show that greece's problem is not as working practices, "the f.t. greece problem -- greece's problem is the euro, not having control over its own fiscal policy. got 25% youth unemployment in spain. it is getting better in spain, but it is a problem for the whole south of europe. manus: if i take your point, which is greece's problem is the euro. ireland took the medicine and have recovered. the exports are up. spain has moderately recovered.
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portugal has. is it just the euro? trevor: it is not just the euro. they have got other problems as well, but i think there is no doubt that if they were outside of the euro, they would not have had a five-year recession. with iceland. the problem is getting back on their feet. spain's economy is growing, it is growing at a time when europe is seeing its struggles growth and 10 years of 1 point something. this may not be sustained by europe, in which case the spanish problem is not over yet. i think there is a big issue in your. -- in europe. amid all the mudslinging going on early this summer with a greece set up, you had hollande saying we need an elected government for europe. we need more federalization. and i still believe that is the only way the euro survives the
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next 50 years as by the formation of the united states of europe. but do not think everybody in germany is in favor of that now. especially the meister plumbers. manus: thank you very much. francine: up next, the china central bank accident to stabilize the yuan. the latest from beijing after the break. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse," streaming on your tablet, phone and we are talking china's challenges. the country central-bank -- make into theon yuan financial system. why not? manus: timing is everything. nick, we have had a number of actions, but what is the urgency behind this latest move from them? i think what you're seeing are sort of the after affects of china's decision to devalue the week.y 3% last so what is going on is that they have devalued the yuan, but at the same time they want to prop up, to keep it from going too low. to do that they have to spend foreign exchange reserves to suck yuan out of the system. this is the aftershock. what looks like this happening is they have been spending so reserves tor forex
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keep the exchange rate from falling too low, that liquidity is getting tight. it is getting so tight that it is reminiscent of the holiday period in february when demand so high.was they are trying to walk this tight rope. what does this tell us about chinese currency? i think what you're seeing are some of the real competing demands that the government faces. you know, they want to prop up growth. they also want to meet imf demands for the currency to be used more globally. and to that, they need to let the market play a greater role, but in doing that, they lose some of control. financialuts stability at risk. you're seeing some of the pressures the government is under. 500us: it looks like the 3 is the new level to watch.
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the chinese want to defend that. is that a fair take? you know, again, what we are seeing their -- the chinese government is not the most oftenarent and they don't telegraph what they do. so everybody is sort of looking for signs that when the government will intervene to stabilize the economy. one thing traders have sort of focused on is that 3500 level for the shanghai composite. level,ocks get to that the belief is that the government will intervene to push stocks back up. again, it is really just trying to get a sense for what the government is going to do and where they are going to find that balance between giving the market a role and continuing to intervene with state support. manus: nick, thank you for rounding all of that up. our bloomberg beijing bureau chief. francine: let's bring back our greetham.vor you are not that optimistic about europe overall. on the fed, you are expected for
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them to do something in september. what is your take on china? doing: i think they are lots of things to soften the landing. it is a slow down. if you look at the chart of growth expectations in china the last two years, they have been declining since 2011. we are now down to people talking about numbers less than 7%. people are saying they're heading to 5% growth. it managed to gradual slowdown, which has similarities to the gradual slowdown that happened in japan in the 1990's after their bubble burst. so, it was not a plunge straight into recession for japan. it was something like 1995 before japan got to zero growth. they had five years of slow down , and china is doing the same. manus: five years of hard tragedy. your top call is still japan. just give us the underlying tenants. trevor: it is a combination of
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things. for any kind of an environment where -- because china is slowing down -- commodity prices are falling, but also an environment where the domestic economy, the low unemployment rate in america makes rate rises feasible in the u.s. you have that combination of weak commodity prices and a strong dollar, and japan is like an anti-emerging market. rts commodities and exports consumer goods to america. the stock market if you are long the japanese stock market, ideally without getting exposure -- shorting the yen -- that makes sense for the other side of the trade is being short of emerging markets. that is where we are positioned in our insurance funds. francine: thank you so much for that. going to next, we are talk retail sales. we have got them right here in the u k what might they tell us about the health of the high street? we were going to break the numbers down after the break. ♪
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i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live in london. manus: we are getting breaking data now on u.k. retail sales and the headline u.k. retail sales excluding auto and fuel comes in bang in line of a rise of .4%. and the year on year 4.3$. -- 4.3%. francine: if you include autos it is weaker than expected.
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manus: exactly. let's bring in the director of retail research. richard, we have had a little bit of a lift in the inflation numbers last month. we have got a whole lot of issues to deal with. retail sales are holding up on headline. once you rip out the autos numbers, .4%. we are spending. richard: that year in your figure, volume presumably, also looks in line. it is been a fairly uninteresting story. we carried on the same level, in spite of steadily falling inflation. people have carried on spending the same amount. month on month of you get more -- all sorts of distortions. last summer was a pretty hot july. i think that is respectable. francine: this is also wage growth. as that start filtering in? lower inflation -- richard: but i think it is just
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underpinning consumer confidence. retail sales were pretty strong one real wage growth was falling. just making people feel happier. everything is in consumers favor. having market strong, wages growth. i do not think they are too worried about the prospect of rising interest rates. everyone seems to be playing down -- francine: do think they do not realize. richard: i think people spend on the basis of the money -- they have in their pocket. and they do not -- they spend, and they judge on the basis of their own finances. a storye wrote yesterday. 25% of all new mortgages are 30 years in length.
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first-time buyers, you are seeing first-time buyers taking 4.5 times their salary. is it going to be a shock -- is it going to be a shock to the system? when it comes. richard: that is a ludicrous multiple, isn't it? how on earth can any sensible bank justified it? francine: to his point, doesn't it depend on how much interest rates rise by? the problem is if they double and go to 7%. what is your perdition. richard: i do not do those. i remember when interest rates wasup to 15 plus, and that painful. these things can go in cycle, and they do. our current expectation is there will be a slow but steady rise. francine: so the impact on retail sales will be fairly small. richard: the thing is we are right at the beginning of a government. heaven knows what is going to
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happen. at least there was no nasty shock in the july budget. perhaps we'll be ok. retailif you look at the environment overall, you were curious to have a breakdown in these retail sales. sales of household goods rose by 3.6%, the most since october. we are doing quite well there. food sales dropped by .2%. sales of clothing dropped by 1.5%. when you break it down, what does that tell you? richard: food is what we know deflation is hitting. and there is a major change in the way we are shopping for food. and the fact that we are using superstores. we are buying fewer nonsense there. clothing very much down to the weather month on month. yeah, we have got a strong housing market. what is interesting is household is what is happening elect agos -- in electricals. street is trying to fight back against online. francine: we're looking at
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strikes possibly in london next week. do people transfer their shopping habits online? richard: if they go shopping, they michael shopping elsewhere. i -- might go shopping elsewhere. one day is not going to happen effect. if a shop closes, there are some portion of that sales that are lost forever. it is odd but true. so, people, if they go shopping, they will buy things they did not plan to. if they cannot go shopping, perhaps a small loss. i do not think it will be major. manus: just one less question. amazon prime launched last month. we are doing more online. these are the disruptive issues in regards to retail. richard: massively understated. 6%ernet pure play only under of all retail sales. that is not much more than mail order used to take. ok, there is another 5% that
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goes for the website of store- based retailers, but for them it is a service to customers making it as easy as possible to customers to buy from them. so, i think the whole internet street is high massively overstated. it is not what is happening. people are changing the way -- changing things we need and look for on the high street. but how we shop, who we shop from is matters. francine: but that changes when you have a website because you can do price comparisons, things you can actually choose the quality you are looking for. andard: that is true people do compare sites. they're looking for something and they are quite happy to research. francine: think you so much. director of retail research. manus: here are our top headlines this thursday. minutes from the fed's fomc meeting in july show janet
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yellen and officials are concerned about's reverently low-inflation. that is even as they -- concerned about stubbornly low-inflation. closer to the first interest-rate increase in a decade. this comes four weeks before the fed's september meeting when most economist forecasts that liftoff will happen. francine: greece is said to have ordered a 3.2 billion european and to the ecb. the country is receiving 13 billion euros today. manus: oil has to extended is decline from the lowest close in six years after a rise in u.s. crude supplies were since the global glut. the government data showed surprise -- supplies rose 1.2 million. francine: oil has slumped 30% since this year's closing peak in june. citigroup says it could fall to $32 a barrel. postedchina mobile
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surprise profit growth today. and the markets like it. the shares finished around 3%. we have been following the story. what are the key takeaways from these numbers for china mobile? the key take away is -- the shares did reverse. concerns there are that at the end of the day they are pushed out a little bit. but the reason why they managed to do so well for the quarter was on two areas. they did quite well on the top line. their revenue did grow. and that was really because of 4g. rg is new in china. it has been going a little bit over a year in china and china mobile had to spend buckets of money to try and roll it out, not just in big cities like beijing and shanghai but out to the promises where fewer people are. they had to spend a lot of money
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on that. they are getting a bit of reward for that investment. more and more people are switching to 4g. that commands higher tariffs. that has been good for them. it also means that people are using more mobile data. that's good for telcos. the other thing that has helped them on the bottom line going through the numbers is the cost have fallen. in the last year, the government itself has indicated that all telcos has spent as much money on subsidies. the old model where a telco would go out and buy expensive andnes or samsung galaxies sell it to consumers cheaper, that is going out the window. so now they do not have to spend that money anymore. this is equal across all of the telcos. they can save that money on marketing and that has been benefiting them in the last six months. that is the two reasons why china mobile has been able to eke out profit growth for the first time in two years. manus: thank you very much.
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bloomberg's tech reporter. francine: we are going to be staying with china and looking at how the recent slowdown has knocked many off the billionaires list. ♪
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manus: welcome back to "the pulse" live from london. francine: with the greek
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situation doubt with, germany has another fire to put out. a migrant crisis. say it will not accept muslim migrants on the grounds that the country has no mosques. francine: the u.k. and france have announced a center in calais. germany is saying it could receive 800,000 people. that is a tiny come out -- tiny amount compared to the crisis as a whole. elliott: it is a huge amount in absolute terms. even as a proportion of germany's population, it has the biggest populationa -- 81 million. on. 1% extra. germany is saying we are quite happy to take in migrants and house and educate them. it is incumbent upon us. we cannot have the situation going on indefinitely. that is another call for a pan
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european solution to this. according to what is known as the dublin regulation -- asylum-seekers or refugees are supposed to claim asylum in the first european union country in which they set foot. of course, the greeks and the hunt guarantee know that migrants come in. they do not want to claim assignment -- assylum there. they want to make it to germany. and if they are lucky, they make it to the u.k. you thinkthat, if about france and the united kingdom, we've seen thaat calais. france and britain are getting tough in their own ways. elliott: it is an ethical and social and economic issue. allowing more migrants into the country at a time when the government has vowed to curb migration, even trying to refuse the number coming from members of the european union, it is not a vote winner for the conservative government to allow more migrants in. so they are trying to get
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tougher. with the home secretary in the u.k. meeting with her french counterpart today. they are setting up a new command and control center. they say it is to crack down on criminals, smugglers who are paid money by the migrants themselves to try to get them to smuggle dan in the back of lories or through the tunnel. overall, what the u.k. is trying to do is reduce the flow of migrants whatever way it can. francine: they can. elliott gotkine with the latest on the refugee situation. manus: let's get you up to speed with the top headlines. university says china's carbon pollution problem is not as bad as previously thought. lowerossil fuel emissions than estimated. researchers looked at 2013 and pollutionation -- was about 14% lower than had been reported. toicials meet in paaris
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strike a deal on global warming. francine: led by the former lehman's ceo has been postponed to let more bidders take part. it includes a guest house and the gatehouse. the auction is expected to bring it $50 million. has approved the first prescription drug aimed at boosting sexual desire in women. the drug will come with warnings. doctors will not be able to prescribe it until they have taken online certification program. they will have to counsel patients about the risks which include nausea, drowsiness and dizziness. francine: basically like when bulla first started the run created a lot of millionaires and billionaires, but the slowdown has hit some of the country's biggest fortunes. manus: for more, let's bring in bloomberg millionaires editor. let's get straight to business -- who are the winners, who are
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the losers, and what businesses are they involved in? >> as a group, they are all winners, which is a reflection of how high that that market got in first half of the year. if you look at the 28 billionaires from mainland china who are on our daily ranking of the 400, they are up close to 50%. but if you look at it from midyear, early june, late may, they are down 50%. so it has really been a rocket ride. another example is our team uncovered 50 new billionaires who are created -- who were created in this market in the first half of the year. half of them are no longer billionaires. commodities.t just this is budget airlines, consumer products. across the board, the entire china's economy. francine: are there any surprises? rob: surprise, yeah. there is one surprise in that it follows a trend -- there is
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this woman, the richest woman in china. at the end of last year, no one was paying attention. she owns a company called lens technology that makes glasses for smartphones. 'dr fortune, the company ipo in march, the fortune search from 2 billion to $14 billion. it is now down to 7 billion. every day she has swings. clear down, which is a example of what is going on in the chinese market. manus: so much of these people's wealth is the banking liquidity. and stability, the billion dollar question. is there any sign of stability? we have equity market -- the pboc doing more action. appear to bees not any sign of stabilities. experts seem to say that the hard landing is going to get worse. half say that china is pretty strong and growing at 7%.
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so i surely do not see any stability. we expect a lot of number movement in our index for the next six, 12, maybe 18 months. francine: i wonder whether they look at the list. and think, oh, no! are probably getting nauseous just like they would be taking those pills. it is paper money. they probably have other resources to draw from. francine: let's hope they do. head of our bloomberg billionaires team get manus: up next, sleeping on the job literally. new research suggests a nap at work is beneficial. we are going to take a look at the best way to have a snooze in the office. francine: but we will stay awake. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the tvse" live on bloomberg and radio. manus: despite research isgesting that a midday annap beneficial. taking one is a social challenge. rebecca greenfield has break the taboo to determine whether sleeping on the job is acceptable. a lot of research has come out this has napping in the middle of the workday makes us
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more alert and focused and more productive employees. i'm going to see if it is realistic to nap on the job. desks are not the most quotable places to sleep. this nap gadget industry has cropped up. i've ordered four nap helpers to myp me nap-simize workday. that is a phrase i learned online. first up is a device called the wrap a nap. a pillow, blindfold and earmuffs that wraps around your face. light which is nice, but despite having the consistency of a pillow, there is no support for your head. it is more like a robust eye mask. it is not really do anything for sleeping at your desk. next, i sued -- used the nap anywhere pillow. it supports your head as neck. it has an 11 step assembly process.
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it took me multiple tries to figure out before i could get to napping. this is more comfortable than it looks but it is not great. this product was developed by a medical professional but it is pretty terrible. it's basically a worse version of airplane neck pillows. it also does not block out any lighter sound. i was uncomfortable, and again, i did not fall asleep. next we have the ostrich pillow, the most well-known device out there. it is a full head experience. there is zero assembly which is atice.nap-er should come. there is room for you to put your arms. it is like wearing a straitjacket on your face. it is suffocating. maybe my expectations were too high, but the pillow did not support my head. i could feel the desk through the cushioning.
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s fell asleep. that counts. doesn't it? takes agency nap kit different approach to the game. it does not simulate a bed, it is a bed. me 20 minutes to inflate the air mattress which killed my naptime and disrupted my coworkers. there is actually a part two to the nap emergency kit. it is basically a sleeping bag you wear. it's so warm. and i feel like a huge freak. buts finally ready to nap, i could not lie down in the middle of all these desks. i found a copy room that looks like the best option for napping in the office. air mattress actually created a pretty nice cushion. i mean, i look and feel ridiculous.
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it's completely impractical. but better than the rest. napping at your desk is hard, even with the help of these products. if companies want to get employees to nap they need to create a culture were sleeping is accessible and provide the space for it. otherwise they will be stuck with overtired worker drones. francine: i would not actually advocate a nap at work. manus: certainly not at bloomberg. i cannot see mike issuing sleeping bags to lay on the floor. francine: in a company that is productive. for those listening on bloomberg radio first word is up next. a second hour of the pulse is coming up. manus: you have the swiss economy minister. johann schneider-ammann. that is going to be a one-to-one interview. we are talking about the fed and europe. francine: so, we will talk
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currency wars and china. we have plenty to discuss. a reminder you can follow us on twitter. our twitter question of the day is on the fed. will they hike in september? tweet us. ♪
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the focinutes from scene. meeting continues concern over sluggish inflation. long tome to say so eight september rate hike? francine: payday for greece. ordered to pay the ecb. manus: the emerging market rout deepens. ♪ manus: good morning to our viewers. welcome to those waking up in
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the united states. i am manus cranny. francine: life from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. manus: coming up, the strong frank. johann schneider-ammann. that is an 10 minutes time. janet yellen and other officials are concerned about low inflation. as we indicated, a improving job market is bringing them closer. manus: bloombergs economic editor is taking a closer look. mike come it is about inflation now. when fed officials met three weeks ago, most judged the conditions for policy firming had not yet benefit -- had not been achieved. they noted conditions were approaching that point. what was missing? confidence. prices would continue to move up. some members continue to see down risks to inflation for the possibility of further dollar
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depreciation. in addition, several noted labor markets have not pushed up wages and prices. they agreed to continue to monitor inflation of element closely, with members indicating they would need to see more evidence of economic growth was sufficiently strong for them to feel confident. was three weeks ago, before the latest plunge and oil. pushed theluation dollar yet higher. these destiny economy had made significant progress and they felt conditions for a rate or they having been met would be met shortly. one member indicated a readiness to take a step at that meeting. itre will be a lot of between now and the fed's september 17 meeting, including more numbers on jobs and inflation.
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investors reading the minutes are now focused on a december liftoff. the only thing you can say is a data dependent fed remains so. michael mckee, bloomberg new york. francine: that brings us to isay's twitter questions, the fed brave enough to hike? chief economist at bamberg banks. by all accounts that seems to be the takes. do you think september is still a possibility? are they still too nervous? >> it is still a possibility. forink it would be good markets, including emerging markets, to get over this first hurdle and then to know from the fed itself that this will not be a rapid successional rate hike, but a very leisurely place. september is possible.
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francine: holder, you think they should hike in september? holger: i think they should hike in september. react,ly the way markets that would be the most market-friendly way. -- cpido you think consumer prices are the slowest in months. oil is on the floor. oil is declining. that is a very clean word, it is declining. getting cessation back to 2%. is it doable in your mind echo holger: it depends on oil prices -- is it doable in your mind? holger: it depends on oil prices. we do not have to receive it in this particular timeframe.
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if inflation is low because of benign development and falling oil prices that is good. if inflation is low because of lack of demand, that is bad. what we see in the u.s. is consumer spending is doing ok. a nice to be strong enough to warrant a rate hike. i would not be fixated on if we will hit the 2% rate. the labor market all seen to soon at ae liftoff gradual pace thereafter. francine: you look at jet -- you look in china and you think how do i read this? move becauseperate it is going to undershoot expectations? adding to uncertainty doesn't make it better. of immediatetion
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rate hike open is not better than getting over with the first one and making it plain to everybody that for the next three meetings, you should not expect another one. even from these china , the fedmarket rout keeping us guessing is not really clear. manus: we touched on emerging .arkets give it in his desire that the currency or the third time. ruble moving of its own volition. is this the 1990's again? is that going to be another asian currency crisis? holger: the good thing is china is at the center of it. china is really big. the real thing about china is it is fairly stably -- fairly
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stable economy which does not depend on capital outflows or inflows. it can manage its own economy. if china really needed to stimulate, it could do so with domestic means. reason isicenter of the one economy that is not going to go the way of thailand in the late 1990's or of russia. economy andre solid if things were to get rough in turn outna will likely to be an anchor of stability. francine: we are having a headline. rand weakening for the first time since 2001. how much do you worry about devaluation? holger: i do not worry about currency wars. i do worry about the emerging-market rout.
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markets, not china , many other emerging markets, if they have to tighten their monetary policies and get collectively into a recession, that is a risk out there. think it will materialize, but that is one thing we have to watch. the much bigger part of the word economy is -- of the world , china, u.s. these parts of the world are , such as theortant one in iran. interesting, but not threatening. manus: thank you, very much. francine: here's a look at what else is on our radar. chris is desperate's is set --
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greece is set to make a payment to the ecb. the country is receiving 13 billion euros today. again oil is on the slide . the u.s. crude supplies were expected to drop but instead the government data shows it rose by 1.2 million. .rancine: oil has slumped citigroup says it could fall during the global financial crisis. the international monetary fund has pushed that the earliest date that the chinese yuan can join. china devalued its currencies. 800,000 people fleeing war and property this year --
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war and poverty this year. ares: the u.k. and france to set up a joint command center . police and border officials are stopping illegal of migrants entering the tunnel -- entering the channel. off during itng -- during a meeting later today. a strong francine: franc puts pressure on swiss employers. keep it right here on the pulse. ♪
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francine: welcome to the polls, live from bloomberg's european headquarters. the focus of asian economies. the franc putting serious pressure on employers. that is according to jan schneider auman -- that is according to jan schneider auman . how worried are you about currency wars? that theorried are you swiss franc will continue tackle the remark about the swiss franc and its currency.
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yes it is very strong currency. reflects oury ability. it reflects our taxable labor market. it reflects our employment situation. it is a challenge politically. francine: was it a mistake to abandon the cap in january? johann: i was swiss national bank is independent. fully aware of what the consequences could be. i would never speak about failure or specific problem. the 15th of since
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january, we are in a free currency market, and we have to find ways out. ways out means we are going to defend our industrialized country. we are going to defend our employment. conditions,y on the as far as politics. as theficiency as far private sector is concerned. i completely understand about the independents. answer this, is your job much more difficult since we saw the emerging-market rout? johann: it became more difficult. issue and we achieved up to now reasonable results with which we can live. hascine: the jobless rate
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risen to 3.5%. are you worried this is too optimistic? johann: no. 1.6 four 2016. it depends on the overall economic situation in europe. as you may know, we depend for two thirds of our exports from the european union. gdp,hree quarters of our we depend on the imports from the european union. in other words, what defines our future growth potential is the overall economic situation in the european union. i stay positively -- i guess 1.6 depending on the eu.
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the far east as well. the u.s. as well. weis a reasonable mark which set out as a goal to achieve. francine: what would be fair value for the franc? johann: the swiss franc has to powerp until a purchasing parity purchasing power relationship with the euro at 122. we are now at 107. we hope the development will go the right way. within days or weeks to come up to 110. then the swiss economy is far to stayondition
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competitive in the global markets. even today the swiss franc has been getting the most versus the u.s. dollar. if you think fair value is at 122. what would need to happen for that to be achieved? johann: what defines strongly of ourchasing parity swiss franc is the stability in the eurozone. the better the eurozone , thelidates its situation better the growth in the european union, the greater the tonces for the swiss franc find back to its real value compared to the euro. francine: when we are looking at a fed hike, when we look at what is going on in china, even if we
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have a stable eurozone, how much do you worry about the rest? johann: it brings pressure on our currency naturally. concerned about the development in the far east and particularly the republic of china. of 7%chieve a growth year-by-year, even in 2015. weakenok measures to sure yuan currency to make they can stay competitive and create volume, which helps china and the global economy. certainuestion of transition. -- transition period.
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that is important for the swiss franc as well. francine: when you're say you're not could -- you're not too concerned about china, is it because you're not seeing impact on the eurozone? or is it because you do not see a hard landing? be an: i used to entrepreneur all my life before becoming a member of the swiss government. intro nor -- in my entrepreneurial activities, i did a lot of business with the people's republic of china. phase, i learned how the -- based on that, i expect them to do the right things on the right time. up with their contribution to stabilize the global economy.
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by the way, we agreed on the free trade agreement, one year our based on that, relations improved from week to week. exactly what we wanted as a contribution to the forthcoming of the swiss economy. francine: quickly one last question. company, whywiss would you not think about relocating? johann: i am in a daily contact with the bosses of the flagship companies of our country. since i was a part of this community. i guess i understand them very well. i guess i get the accurate information. -- dof them do not
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nothing about the location, at least for the time being. offering.d has a good the best system about education. .mong the most we invest heavily into our infrastructure. -- we do whatto we can do. that is ok. it is a good offer to the big swiss companies. , they think price before they take decisions to relocate. francine: think you so much. -- thank you so much. the swiss economy minister joining us. manus: great line for us -- great line from him.
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he hopes in the next couple of weeks. up next, greece orders 3.2 billion euros headed to the ecb. we will get the latest after the break. ♪
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manus: welcome back to the false. greece is setting the motion and order. let's go to hans nichols. go -- hans: that is what
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the greece bank is saying. it has been released from the mechanism. most of that is for the banks to recapitalize. the bank stocks are being hit in athens. 3 billion chance of a at the end of november. at that point, we could have some clarity on whether or not the monetary fund is going to dissipate. we could have clarity on whether or not there is going to be a new government in athens. there may be early elections, early october. none of that is firm yet. that is the next issue that need to happen. all the political stuff from the creditors have been resolved. manus: thank you very much. up next, a record number of refugees are expected in germany this year. stay with a pulse. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the polls. where live from bloomberg's european headquarters. manus: here are our top headlines. minutes from the meeting. janet yellen and other officials are concerned about lowering inflation. indications that an improving job market is bringing in -- is bringing us closer to the rate increase. this comes through weeks before the feds meeting. francine: greece is said to have ordered a 3.2 billion euro
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painting -- euro payment. the country receiving 13 billion euros. manus: oil has extended its decline after an unexpected rise in crude supplies. the government data showed supplies rose by 1.2 million. jumped more than citigroup says it could fall to the lows that were last seen when oil was 32 dollars a barrel. francine: let's check in on the market. , we are seeing steep declines. caroline: risk aversion's abound. global growth concerns there. inflation. it is funny, before whenever we thought the federal reserve would push back rate rises, the
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market would have euphoria. it would be green. it seems to be highlighting what everyone is worried about. they're worried about china, inflation, commodity. the fact we are seeing some of continuing. oil, copper. all of these things concerning the market. every single energy group is lower. with oil trading lower, we see gas at -- consumer purchasing falling lower. coming in asnot hoped. let's have another look at what is happening to the dollar. the rate reserve minutes came up yesterday. they are still concerned about the lack of inflation. that was back in july it since then, we've had the yuan devaluation. communityf the asian -- you saw the dollar lose its value yesterday.
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today we are still flooding on those lows. the euro strengthening a little bit at 3/10 of a percent. look at what it is doing to gold. value, we'reses going to be piling back into gold. continuing to drive higher. that is pushing up some of those minors. i would to show you how the oil is continuing on its downward trajectory. not far off $40 per barrel. number coming out of the u.s. in terms of supplies. let's have a look at what is happening. this sums up what is happening. oil stocks being driven lower. the flipside, gold rally. gold up 3%. some of those minors are
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forming. this is a fascinating story. keep an eye on some of the luxury watchmakers. exports july down at 9%. declineres, china 40% in exports. exports, hongn kong. that was july. that was amidst the stock route. imports looking much less attractive. back to you guys. manus: 25 minutes to go until surveillance takes to the air. japan picked above 13. the lira picked above. this is a new move in the emerging markets. tom: there has been a move here. the fed meeting in the last 18 hours. the new accelerant. the news out of korea where we
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have a barrage coming from south korea over into some form of north korea territory. on it.little foggy where can to move this forward. stanleyears and morgan who'll speak to stephen roach about china. we may rip up the script to talk about north korea. margaret is on the move, and the fed is beginning to adapt and adjust to the rand or turkish lira. the devaluation we saw as they move to float this morning. this is a big move, this is a big morning, manus. whether theseee emerging markets continue on. tom, have a great show. stop who plunged -- kazikhstan who plunged
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this morning. who might be next to devalue. we are going to jane foley. look into the program. -- who endorse this isely? jane: exactly what is happening. we are concerned about very weak chinese growth. chinese growth is concern, but a number of emerging markets are quite weak fundamentally. it will be the country's better with -- we will see this particularly with the focus on malaysia.
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if you look at thailand, we see a mix of structural reform. south africa the same. turkey, a lot of concern about the politics there. these problems to deal with. effects that commodity prices are week, chinese growth is slowing, has exposed these currencies to what our inherent weaknesses. a tinkering.e seen vietnam has gone for the third time this year. ikhstan fallg kaz off a peg. they're not quantum market shifters, are they? ?ho will we see make a move has the firepower and reserves to make a credible move?
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jane: it comes back if you like. the emerging market economies stung the most. we look at the euro, the euro has been really pulled into this whole situation. why is the euro sofa at the moment? waseuro earlier this year being the currency for carry trades. those short euros are being reversed. the ecb won't like that. weak growth.w, they were enjoying the weaker currency at the start of the year. can they do anything? when we get to some of these central banks, all they could do is delaying the rate hike until december. it's really not so clear what
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else they can do with the japanese. perhaps step up in october. a lot of people are thinking that. will be further reactions. i think it is going to take all of september, maybe longer, to try and engage how far this type of change has gone. not just emerging markets, but through developed economies. francine: you're not affecting euro-dollar parity? jane: i never put in the table. i am thinking about changing that you two more euro resilience as of the money coming back into core countries and assets. had a cosmos it has a conversation with the swiss economists. i don't know why you're
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laughing. -- jane: good luck. manus: good luck. the challenge for the swiss bank -- is it going to get stronger? -- jane: i would say in recent months there been sides of negative interest rates. intervening in the market have had some effect. it didn't perform well. this was bank did not perform well when greece was in the headlines. perhaps some of that went to sterling. people went wait a minute. day, if peoplehe aren't frightened, people aren't you worried. they are going to make most of their money back.
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what would you rather be holding? it will remain strong. , theof this conversation swiss could of been having this conversation for 20 years. they do better on the back of safe even demand. francine: thank you so much for that. senior shortages. manus: great frustration the with for now. fire to putanother out. it is a migrant crisis. it could see its refugee intake quadrupled. -- manus: to stem the flow of illegal migrants, the ..k. has a joint policy for more on the whole story let's bring in elliott gotkine.
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it hundred thousand asylum-seekers this year. elliott: it is a large number. -- even a country the size for even a country the size of germany. 1% of the populace and. germany is saying we have to do our part. we are happy to accept refugees and asylum-seekers in a way that we should to house them, educate them. it is incumbent of them to do. this situation cannot go on indefinitely, because we do not have the resources. it is not fair. let's forget, going to the migrants aretion, supposed to claim asylum in the first country they set foot. migrants under the best of , they do not have many family ties there. there are not many networks of
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people from the country. most people want to go to germany, the most powerful economy in europe. or the u.k. when they believe they are more generous and there are more opportunities. francine: if you look at the figures of the amount of people that are arriving, it is a huge amount. it is difficult to do with them. elliott: greece is on the front line. the easiest but to get to is greece. in fact, you can see the island of costs. you get rubber dinghies ferrying people across the border. coming up from north africa as well. but the european union and the germans are hoping will happen, and they are in a position to nuts this along, is an
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arrangement whereby the burden is evenly shared by countries. willps not all countries play their part. they wills saying offer asylum to christians. they do want muslims. mosques.t have any they are lee only european country without a mosque. -- they are the only european country without a mosque. -- to meet with her french counterpart. they're setting up a new control center. what they say this is about is cracking down on the criminals who are helping to encourage migrant asylum-seekers to break into the channel tunnel to make their way to the u.k.. but are making it through
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they want to keep that flow as small as possible. francine: elliott, thank you. china slowdowne may not someone off the billionaires list. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the post. live from london on bloomberg tv. many billionaires and millionaires. had --nomic slowdown has
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has hit. in's bring it has been a roller coaster of a year for markets. it is a roller coaster year for billionaires. rob: they are a crew operating without a safety net. you have government intrusion. billionaires are front and center internationally. our team found about 50 billionaires who were creating an market rise between january and middle of june. more than half of those are no longer billionaires. ittunes are plummeting here -- plummeting. if you look at things from last year, they are still up as a group. not the new billionaires that we found. the 20 people who are among our daily index of the richest people in the world, are still up, you today a little over 50%.
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francine: when you look at those --rts and the most rich list bob: nobody is talking about jack ma anymore. get a big week that she had a big day a week ago. -- he had a big day a week ago. enough that she has fallen off. -- he has fallen off. he fell back down to two. then he went back to four. is a constantly on liquidity that we benchmark? rob: we have certain calculations depending on how much collected. what exactly what they do that cash is hard to say. they could be buying art, real estate.
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they would have some cash to operate. for the most part, the majority are at heart assets. heard from him yesterday saying no one could rule china. they can call it either. rob: that was comforting to hear him say that. i feel the same way. china, she woman in ipo to her company. her fortune search to $14 billion. fortune surged to $14 billion and then fell to $7 billion. you talk about stability. it rises and falls every day. we have seen it happening for months. i think they can look at this as paper money and this is going to
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ride out. in the end, i think they're going to be for the rich, i just on know how filthy rich. here are some of the top headlines. harvard university says china's carbon pollution problem is not as bad as thought. emissions lower than expected. -- said pollution was lower than have been reported. francine: the planned auction of an estate owned by former lehman chairman's -- former lehman brothers chairman -- including a main house with service quarters, a separate guesthouse and the gatehouse. to bring as much as $50 million. manus: the fda has approved the first drug to boost the sexual
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desire in women. it will come with a number of warnings. doctors will not be allowed to prescribe it until they take an online certification program. francine: i wonder how much of a big business this is compared to viagra? merkel headsgela to brazil. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the polls. bloomberg tv. streaming on the ipad and a manus: hunts nichols is a standing by. is angela merkel on your radar? she must be relieved. hans: she must be relieved. i don't know if she's going to rub in that victory. she probably will not mention it. she is taking members of her cabinet to brazil. they are talking trade. we've noticed a subtle shift in germany. they are starting to look outward for the globe, now that greece appears to be in the rearview mirror. they are wondering where growth is coming from. they look at the situation in brazil. they are concerned. they look at the situation in china, they are very concerned. take a look at china, volkswagen sales were down.
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they are looking abroad. they want to see where their opportunities. merkel wants to build ties with brazil. we will see what deliverables she will come back with. it is a short trip here it only about 24 hours. short trip, long before we go, let's check on the markets. european stocks fell off. this follows on the emerging-market route and concerns about global growth and what the fed will do in time for the u.s. rate increase. manus: gold is rising. , with thoseities exposures to china, that is one critical issue. the dax. that is it for the pulse. keep it right here on bloomberg
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tv. -- yought here for the can follow both of us on twitter. the twitter question of the day is in you expect the fed interest rate? ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." texas approaches $39. commodity currencies signal
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export deflation. kazakhstand -- reacting to china. meg whitman is no carly fiorina. wait. that is a good thing. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. ndan "the markets are moving" greeley joins me. olivia: they dropped the caller altogether -- brendan: they dropped the collar altogether. tom: exactly. today, they devalue by one quarter. why? brendan: they just could not sustain it forever. are we moving to a complete


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