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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  November 23, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EST

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>> brussel under lockdown. the week begins in europe but the belgian capital metro remains closed as authorities warn of an imminent terror attack. the commodity crunch continues. a slump deepens as the dollar pushes higher. lows.dex hits fresh 1999 pharma megamerger. health care history in a deal worth more than $150 billion. monday morning, welcome to "countdown." it is going to be a
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busy week. what are the real themes is, what is happening with the dollar? the dollar index is tracking back towards 100. we're very close. be a bigt 100, it will deal for the market. it is driving commodities, driving the emerging market. we haven't hit it since march the 13th but it is going to be a big, big theme of the day. we are joined by david owen. he is managing director and chief european economist. with him in a moment. >> hero stories you need to know this morning. brussels remains locked down as this -- as the authorities keep the city on maximum terror alert. the issue of terrorism will dominate a meeting of european finance ministers as they gather
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in the belgian capital this afternoon to discuss the budget. the commodity slump is deepening with oils and metals retreating. crude has extended its decline with venezuela predicting prices below $20 a barrel and less opec takes action. the san francisco fed president has reinforced the view that there will be a rate hike next month. case" for "a strong the hike. $150 -- the leonard billion dollars merger between pfizer allergan could begin today. it could make it easier for the combined companies to cut taxes by moving the official address outside of the u.s. the next president of argentina after winning the general elections.
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the two-time mayor of print this ra's will take over -- of windows ra's will take over on december 10. it heralds the end of punitive export taxes in may of reach an estimated $8 billion in shipments. let's get up to speed on what is happening with the markets. the dollar is dominating. it is having an effect on commodities, stocks. yvonne man is here with details. yvonne: a pretty tepid day overall. for the most part, you see quite a bit of green. it is the big players that are really wait down on the regional benchmark. japan has been closed for a .oliday
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7/10 of a percent as we wrap up the training there. shanghai stocks are not getting much direction. they were starting off on a slightly higher note but now we are seeing some pressure up to 10th of a percent. the jose weighing down for tenths of a percent. we did see the securities regulator give the go-ahead on 10 ipos. five approved for listing the shanghai stock exchange, five others though in the shape jen. tons of confidence. a silent confidence there. we saw singapore inflation coming up last hour or so. unexpectedly reporting a steeper drop. cpi falling a 10th of a percent in october. i do want to mention some of the other sectors. you talk about the commodity slump deepening.
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materials is really the only section that is falling right now. i do want to talk about the movers here. dnp is one of them that is way down. scrapped its domestic dividend policy. even if they say scrap or not, they may still have that risk. up forhina, shares tenths of 1%. trying to shore up their balance sheets. , china's biggest aluminum producer. shares falling 1.6%, the president resigning. we see those tourist rivals also falling.
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finally, i want to end on this one stock. shares falling 12% today. the company saying the ceo and chairman cannot be found. they haven't talked with them since wednesday. send it back to you. guy: thank you very much, indeed. arrested 16ce have people in the hunt for an islamic state terror cell they fear is planning an imminent attack on the belgian capital. locked down for the third full day. schools, shops, the metro network go a large buildings. the prime minister spoke about the perceived threat yesterday. i confirmed, as i was able to indicate yesterday, that we are fearing a similar attack to that
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which took place in paris involving several individuals who might launch an attack on several different locations at the same time. we have information that leads us to believe that the potential targets are places which are regularly frequented, we are thinking for example of commercial centers or streets. another example might be the public transportation system. hayden is in brussels with the latest. collects -- jones: they're trying to do things normally but it is a little difficult with this terror threat at the maximum level. now, the subway continuing to be close as the week starts over here. last night, they had a major operation looking for suspects in this case. they arrested 16 but they didn't find some live this long -- they didn't find salah abdelslam.
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guy: finance ministers are going to be gathered today. out of is that meeting going ahead given what is happening elsewhere in the belgian capital, and how much will that meeting be impacted by what is happening with the wider terror story? it is able to go ahead because the airports in the regular trains are not affected. the belgian authorities say the threat is against public gatherings. they are shutting down things were a lot of people would come together. it is not against the airport or against the train. those things remain open and operating fairly normally. getting from the airport to downtown maybe a little difficult without the metro, but you can take a taxi. for the finance ministers, they the terrorism in
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that the are talking about the cost of it, talking about the budgets for next year. the cost of the security. france, in particular, has said it will increase to radically its spending on security in the wake of these attacks. they will have to take this into account when they did the budgets. the european authorities have already said that they know what is happening in france, that they see what is going on, and that there is room for flexibility within the rules. thank you for the update. david owens, chief european economist at jefferies, is with us. move -- does this
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we will see increasing budget. that will be the central story in a certain right. obviously the movement of labor and goods around the eu -- if that is impacted because people can no longer move freely between borders, that will have an impact. frustrations about what is going to happen on december the third. you would expect to see that speculation increased. guy: how do you actually build this into your models? ask -- goingto be to be x, how do you then change that? david: with transportation become more difficult, go back and see what impact you think the european commission. me things had a gdp anyway.
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everyone has been positive but no one knows exactly how positive. estimating andof less things completely shutdown in europe and nothing moved ever. end of the day, the ecb will be doing more. guy: brussels is selling paper at 20.25, 20.28 today. david: investors may be slightly less certain about buying bonds. i just came back from asia. they have actually changed their view. they actually think it is recovery. that is a few i got last week in japan in particular. there was this whole thing about when the bond yields are going to start writing anyway. they may suggest that spreads and start wiping out in some cases. some countries are affected by this.
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guy: what happens with the spread? let's see the -- let's say the german in the u.s. two-year. the other interesting than their -- interesting thing there, i think they will start thinking at some point, it will go up. this level of spread. again, we were getting that feedback from asia investors. the idea that you basically bund and along the treasury at some point. when do see this being priced into the u.s. treasury? the fed is going to move on december 16. maybeve a situation where there will be more international investors that go back into the
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treasury market. we will come back and talk about that a little bit more. let me tell you about your day ahead. it is all about pmi data. first up, we get ready for france and germany. get u.k. time, we will manufacturing -- we will get eurozone manufacturing pmi data as well. storyt, the commodity front and center as ever. dollar metal losing, the gaining traction. we will dig deeper, next.
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6:16 in london. ra: here are the stories you need to know this morning.
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lockdown asains on authorities keep the city on maximum terror alert. the issue of terrorism will dominate a meeting of eurozone finance ministers as they gather in the belgian capital this afternoon to discuss the 2016 national budget. meanwhile, u.k. prime minister david cameron will push for the budget to be increased to 12 billion pounds in response to terror threats. he will also visit president francois hollande in paris this morning to discuss the security situation. cutsche bank's plans to 1000 jobs in london next year. they say the layoffs were part of a plan announced last month. the bank plans to shrink its workforce by 9000 over the next three years. the next president of argentina after winning the general election.
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the two-time mayor of wayne authorities will take over -- mayor of buenos aires will take over december 10, thanks the for economic liberalization. an estimated $8 billion of shipments in stored crops. that is going to be part and parcel of the commodities slumped story. the agricultural sector will suffer. oil leading the loss of this morning. the dollar behind all of this. to bloomberg's asia metals and mining reports. are we bottoming out or are we to believe some of the comments that we have got significantly further to go on the downside? i guess that is the
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question that will be forefront in the minds of investors. continue?onger can it again, the signals don't look positive. china's demand shows no sign of strengthening. investors we have saying that the outlook is becoming gloomier if anything. it didn't add up to any positive news on the demand side of the equation. you mentioned strength of the u.s. dollar, that is another problem. expectations of the u.s. rate rise. the commodities make raw materials more expensive. enough, thewasn't potential headwinds for soft commodities. the election of argentina's new , that could of 8
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billion of stored crops. it is a gloomy outlook across the board, really. we have dealt with pricing, dealt with what is happening on the demand side, what about the supply-side? >> we have seen some attempts for producers. zinc, thee copper and supply of aluminum. all of those things haven't really proven to be any help to prices. we have seen some short-term gains in various commodities. it seems that those cuts can't help balance our markets in oversupply. the glut of various metal the markets have could require a lot more action if those markets are
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to be brought into balance. guy: david owen is still with us. chief european economist at jefferies. let's come back to the emerging markets story. pictures of the new argentinian leader dancing his way into the story. how much more gloomy do you think the story can get from here? david: it will certainly get gloomier if you get china continuing to slow very sharply. asia, itming back from is doing better. there are little bits of the world where things are getting better. europe was recovery in the u.s. along with the u.k.. though thathe case
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is as bad as it has got and therefore it is only up from here? it is so depressed, so grim, so miserable, do any marginal improvement. david: that is certainly possible, but it is certainly also possible. obviously, there is going to be tightening in the u.s. and the world. there is also this risk that we get the markets more internationally. loss of concern. as the u.s. starts raising interest rates, you will see some em markets coming under pressure. one of the things we don't really know about. you raise china. 30%.
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that would be cataclysmic on asia and probably the rest of the world as well. u.s.: we see the unwinding treasury holdings as part of that story. begeneral, i think it will kind of a gradual solution. that is a big number and would be a huge surprise. is general assumption creeping depreciation of the exchange rate rather than a 730% move. move.n a sudden 30% guy: you've been talking to guys in asia, what are they saying? >> we didn't discuss china much, to be fair. it was more about europe and the u.s.. guy: the two are linked? david: yes. i think the concern investors have is when the u.s. start raising interest rates, does that have an effect on other financial markets it serves of
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-- in terms of more e.m. credit. crowded trades in the fixed incomes are you suddenly see rejections occurring. that will also stop the u.s. raising interest rates probably any further. -- have ae it situation where they are cautious, they say they are not going to raise rates quickly. obviously, if markets misbehaved, and certainly that will stop the raising rates for a long period of time. guy: we're going to come back. i want to talk a little bit more. in the bull market, it is getting quite stretched. we will have that conversation in a moment. pfizer and allergan could announce a merger agreement today. it could be the biggest pharmaceutical tap in history.
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nejra: of course, we were talking about this deal last week, the potential for it happening as early as today. one sticking point was the u.s. treasury tightening the rules around taxing where u.s. companies by -- u.s. companies buy foreign companies abroad for tax purposes. pfizer and allergan are looking to propose a record merger worth more than $150 billion. we heard the boards in the companies were expected to sign off on the agreement yesterday. pfizer will exchange 11.3 shares for each allergan share. what this means, is the fact, is that the transaction is structured so that dublin-based allergan is buying the bus larger pfizer. kind of a ruler -- kind of a reverse merger if you like. this is also a way of getting around the tighter rules of the
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treasury which were talked about on friday. this will be the biggest merger in the pharmaceutical injury ever. we are talking about the biggest merger in any industry this year. talking about the biggest tax in version in history. although we did see the u.s. treasury make those moves on friday, it does look like these companies determined to come to some sort of an agreement. guy: thank you very much indeed, nejra. after the break, we will get you up to speed with what is happening in brussels. we will be live there at the authorities keep the city on maximum alert us. ♪
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♪ 6:30 in london, 7:30 in brussels. let's get you up to date. nejra: david cameron will announce plans to boost britain's military equipment budget by 12 billion pounds. visited francois hollande in paris this morning to discuss the security situation. is commodities slump deepening with oils and metals retreating. crude has extended a decline in venezuela, predicting that prices may drop to $20 a barrel unless opec takes action to
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stabilize the market. presidentancisco fed has reinforced the view of a rate hike next month. there is a strong case for december lived off. he says it depends on data continuing to be encouraging. cut ahe bank plans to thousand jobs in london next year. the sunday times says the layoffs are out -- part of an overhaul announced last month. macri is the next president of argentina after winning the general election. the mayor of buenos aires ends 12 years of leftist populism and heralding the end of punitive export taxes.
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those are the stories you need to know. belgian police have arrested 16 people in the hunt for an islamic state terror cell. the entire city remains on lockdown. david cameron is heading to paris to meet with president hollande. what is the latest? these raids last night. there was a press conference after midnight announcing that they had detained 16 people. they do not find the prime suspect they are looking for, bdelslam, the one who is enbeek and one of the perpetrators of the attacks in paris. he remains at large. that is why things in brussels are jittery.
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terror alert is at the maximum. they have the subway closed, the schools closed. they are trying to make sure an attack like paris does not happen here. they are afraid of that kind of attack is what is being planned now against public gatherings, cinemas, concerts, sports stadiums. let's go to carolyn in paris. hollande rallying international leaders against islamic state. what can we expect from the process? later in the week, it is going to get really busy in the u.s. and moscow. what can we expect? >> it is probably going to be the busiest week for president hollande's presidency. the first meeting, breakfast with david cameron. they will probably discuss the possibility of joint airstrikes
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in syria, something that u.k. is not doing at the moment. they have only been targeting iraq. france, so far, is the only western country with the united states to be directly involved with airstrikes in syria. of course, the week will continue with intense diplomatic discussions on tuesday. flying tohollandee is washington dc for a meeting with president obama, then a meeting with angela merkel before flying to moscow. taskurse, the difficult for president hollande is to act as a bridge between the u.s. and russia. the russian president has shown support for france, saying they want to help in the region. the charles de gaulle aircraft
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carrier is arriving in the area and is ready to strike syria. of course, the u.s. at the moment has been reluctant to join military forces with russia . russia is supporting bashar al-assad. assad go.ants to see france has shown more flexibility in working with the russians. it is a tricky situation given that france canceled the sales of two mistral warships to russia. so far, the russian airstrikes in syria only in all airstrikes, no troops on the ground. something that will not change in the short term, according to the defense minister. guy: how do you pay for all of this is part and parcel of the
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story. finance ministers are meeting in brussels today amid the lockdown in the belgian capital. deliver?age will they >> i think they are standing , saying thatn this the fight against terror trumps the budget situation in this instance. dealing with the extra cost of the refugee situation. they will need to spend more to beef up security. we are looking to see flexibility on the part of the eu masters, particularly france's budget. other areas are boosting spending for refugees, if not the fight on terrorism. this is not just a european fight, but a global fight. guy: jones, carolyn, thanks.
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andill be back later on keep you updated as the morning eve all. david owen is still with us this morning. as we watch the story unfold in europe, how do we think about this politically? how do we start to maybe get a new narrative about european politics? things are changing quite fast. >> europe is under unprecedented security threats, by russia in the east and islamic insurgencies the likes of which it could not dream of in the west. theou look at some of analysis, american intelligence puts the number of potential migrants coming across the mediterranean at 45 million. we also know that many of those will be driven by war. we have a whole range of instability.
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what is happening is the narrative of the eu is byentially being supplanted the need to develop a security narrative. european armies are nowhere. have any ability to project power on the british and the french. the poles do not have the necessary infrastructure. we will see austerity trumped by security politics. we have not yet got the political will to garner the west to fight at a distance and on the ground. guy: how about the security story? economically, we will see the narrative changing. we will see money on defense spent in that u.k. but security will change. how quickly does that happen? that will be a major negative to the european story. >> here is the interesting
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thing. france invoke article five of nato? instead, hollande invoked article 48, which calls on all eu members to come together. given america's pivot to the east and its new cold war with we will need to develop a common security policy that can act at a distance. i suspect this will have to be led by an anglo-french alliance. no one else has the ability. it may well be that hollande is building support to invoke article five. it is not clear that that will happen. what i think we will see is the beginning of a narrative about the need to deploy european troops on the ground.
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nobody thinks we can defeat isis. hollande has declared war. others believe this is an ex essential threat. are we going to see the narrative change to deploy european troops in theater to essentially wipe islamic state off the map? i think so. i think that is what is needed. i suspect it will be a pan- european project, bolstered by the americans, possibly at a distance. then a new security theater. guy: what you are talking about sounds incredibly expensive. when you look through history, coming out of the great 1930's, youhe early had policies going into the second world war. these tend to boost growth. >> it may be helpful for gdp. economically, who will be
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on board with that? >> the germans, particularly. they do not want to be spending beyond their means. they have a balanced budget in place. guy: how does this get funded? >> at the national level. in the u.k., it will be the budget figures. they were expecting a surplus in 2020. they will probably push that into another year. i assume france will spend more. foot,y is on the back really. i do not think they will be economically able. guy: let's talk about angela merkel. she has delivered economic policy via migration policy. does she have the hammock -- economic policy right? merkel has become a
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verb in germany, to set out the debate and decide with the majority. she did that over nuclear power. the trouble is a security situation is not something you can set out. germany has almost no military power whatsoever. legacy by looking outmoded by events. the new security requirements are so extreme they will probably demand or require a different leader. given that she has made a strategic error that could prove that europe will take all the refugees, we now know that inside, there are people running for their lives. phillip thinks angela merkel could be out of office on the results of that.
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we will talk more about angela merkel in a moment. industrial metals are leading losses among commodities. i can show you here. copper is down about 2.7% at the moment, a 2009 low. 5% down, its lowest since 2003. we have seen gold off by .7%, belowoil extending a drop $42 a barrel. of course, we had comments from the venezuelan oil minister saying prices may drop as low as $20 a barrel unless opec takes action to stabilize the market. we have seen an impact on emerging markets. the emerging market index is off a bit.
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market at emerging currencies, looking at a gauge of 20, they are down for the first time in a week. this is about the dollar, a stronger dollar. 88 --llar index is at eight-month high. comments from the fed officials over the weekend driving the dollar higher, pushing down commodities. we are seeing oil weaker with an impact on emergence -- emerging markets. guy: thank you very much in the. the dollar index trading very much higher. after the break, we will get , pressurerkel increasing on her liberal migration policies. we will look forward to what happens next. ♪
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guy: 7:47 in brussels.
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ejra at the top stories. nejra: brussels remains on lockdown and in maximum terror alert. schools and the underground system are closed. security will dominate the discussion of treasury ministers as they gather in the capital to discuss the national budget. david cameron will announce plans later to boost britain's military equipment budget to 12 billion pounds in response to the terror threat. cameron will visit francois hollande in paris this morning to discuss the security situation. the 150 going dollar merger of allergan is expected to be announced today as a and in version, that may allow the companies to cut taxes by moving its address
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outside the u.s. deutsche bank plans to cut 1000 jobs in london next year. the sunday times says the layoffs are part of an overhaul announced last month. itsbank plans to trade workforce by 9000 in the next three years. guy: thank you very much. we have been discussing angela merkel. , merkel hasade faced increasing pressure at home over migration policy. hans nichols is in berlin this morning. how do the germans see the last 10 years? remarkable, it is remarkable to see how angela merkel is viewed as a weak chancellor to a strong chancellor. s andas way up in the poll
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barely won. a plurality thought she was a weak chancellor. later, 42% year, 16% said she was wea over 60% of voters in the surveyk. did not think another leader could handle the refugee crisis as well as angela merkel. there is always this question of who will replace her. of course, she is dealing with this crisis from a position of economic strength. unemployment is down 6.4%. when she came to office, it was around 11%. 2 million people have been taken off the unemployment rolls. is weher big decision
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aning germans off of nuclear power plants. right now, we are at 25%. of their goal is to get into 45% in the next 10 years. polls we note on the have seen, only 19% think someone else could do the refugee job better. point to her, 6% sometimes ally in the south, the president of the csu in bavaria. angela merkel did not make much fanfare yesterday with the 10 year anniversary. i cannot find anything in her public schedule to note that she celebrated it. guy: very quietly. you bring up the issue of the coalition. what is happening inside the coalition? horsehoffer announced he will go to russia to have a meeting
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with vladimir putin. on friday, time, there is a big meeting in bavaria. rebuke merkele onstage, he sort of backtracked and said, it is only the two of us that can do it together. himself and said it is only angela merkel and zeho ffer that can make this change. he is clearly at odds with merkel on refugees. guy: thank you. hans nichols, our international correspondent. philip is still with us. you think she is in trouble. >> it is the first crack in the facade, the first break. it is a fundamental break. if you look across europe,
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politics has changed arguably in every single nation. the new politics are going to be working class and protectionist -nationalist. if you believe that the rise of the robots stuff, most of the middle class jobs are going to vanish. and actually, once that rises in germany, what most people do not germany has the highest rate of policy, inequality, in the whole of europe. i think there is a constituency that could oppose merkel. being wrong on migration is one of those axis essential questions that will not come back the other way. migrants coming to europe will potentially be 100 times greater than that currently being experienced, and
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the terror threat willingly rise. if you are out of step with the changes is when you fail as a grand politician. guy: merkel goes. what does that do to the european bond market, to the grounding that germany provides economically? >> 10 years ago, germany was on the mend. we had a situation where all those market reforms came through. all of a sudden, the economic miracle is being tarnished by the weekend -- weakness we are seeing in the international market. off.s are sort of drifting you can see other countries outperforming, like italy. italian gdp is outperforming expectations. germany is losing its step in being the lead economic power. guy: she has functioned at the
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core of europe, cap the eurozone together. provided reasons for keeping greece in. it was hollande that brokered the deal, but it was a situation that angela merkel was determined to keep it on the rails. >> you can imagine a story where suddenly -- guy: who is the core of europe? who is the person that you call? >> opinions divide on whether the eurozone survives or not. arguably, britain votes to stay in, and the eurozone fails, i would argue that britain becomes the de facto leader. we may potentially have a london-paris axis.
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britain has a huge amount of sympathy and friendship with countries that feel threatened by the paris-berlin axis. if they win the vote to stay in, people have to think, what does this mean? that she stay in office, do you think? sarkozy willnks win it. if the money is on anybody, it pen, who will be bolstered by these awful terror events. is almost they old socialist model. it is the new politics of europe. people who have been failed by globalization. guy: guys, fascinating conversation. phillip blond, david owen.
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in the next hour, the latest from brussels. the city remains on lockdown. we will see david cameron arrived in paris to talk with francois hollande over the security situation. lots to talk about. ♪
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>> brussels on lockdown and the week begins in europe in the capital stays shut. authorities warn of an imminent terrorist attack. higher and ithes is going to be fresh. and, a farmer megamerger with a deal worth more than $150 billion. good morning and welcome to
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countdown. the european equities are part of the story. we'll talk to stephen. he is a chairman of the investment committee here and we are going to talk about the stockshere and euro pointing to a flat open. this is the two-year. keep an eye on that. it is driving this index up here in march. 100 back worldk our way around the and we will talk about soil little later in the program. let's get to the stories now. is on lockdown with authorities keeping the city on maximum terror alert. the schools and the networks are closed with eurozone finance ministers in the belgian
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capital. minister, the prime announced plans to boost the military budget in response to the threats. we will discuss the security situation. the fed president has reinforced a view that there will be a rate hike. there will be a strong case for a december lift off. encouraging a $150 billion the deal is and being structured as a takeover with an inversion. is the official address outside the u.s.. pledging to be the next afterent of argentina
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winning the general election. taking off on december 10 with argentina setting the stage for economic liberalization and a heralding the end of punitive actions. those are the stories you need to know. >> thank you very much. have arrestedlice is the entireit city on lockdown. the metro network is closed. the minister spoke about a threat yesterday. confirm that we are fearing
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similar attacks to what took place in paris involving attacks launching on individuals that several times. we have information that leads us to believe the potential targets are places that are , likerly frequented commercial centers and streets. the other example would be a public transportation system. let's figure out what is the latest. >> here, we had this overnight ending at about midnight and they announced that they had arrested 16 people. brussels, he is still at large and considered very dangerous and on edge.
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it is why we are jittering over here. and theyh continues were in a broader area than they had been before. they were in several districts and they will be continuing today. the national security council will meet at noon and we will get an update on a terror threat and they will let us know how long the lockdown is going to continue. >> briefly, you have come to work in the morning and what are you seeing? how is the journey affected? it was a feeling. >> if you are a regular user of the subway, the journey is different and difficult. i have to drive and walk some to get here. you will feel more on the weekend and there is lots of
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people around the downtown area. over the weekend, they were very few people. there were more police than soldiers. they need to make sure everything was ok. closeecommended they were and some stayed open. deserted andd of it continues today with people trying to continue to get back to work and make it seem like a normal day. >> in the capital, i assume the meeting is going ahead with a security story front and center. >> it is right that the finance ministers have a scheduled meeting and they decided to go ahead with it.
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threat continues. as for today, we are talking about the budget for the euro-area countries and france has boosted defense spending in the wake of the attacks in paris with a big issue they will be talking about. there is flexibility within the rules in emergency situations. the president says they're are going to do whatever they can and there are other countries that are trying to battle terrorism more. >> thank you. the terrorists story is a big one for you. what is your thinking on the
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economic implications? iswhat happened last week apart from the overnight selloff last sunday. the markets rallied and the s&p had the best week with a dramatic rally. why is that? is that because the terror attack is not great? it is because people are looking to the ecb extending quantitative easing and that is the story that has propelled markets. if you follow the fed or the central bank, you would be able to disregard other stories. is there a point where that story runs out of steam? once the announcement has taken place, there are other fundamentals and we are seeing a fear of disruption to activity levels in brussels when there were not a lot of good souls over the weekend and everyone in
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europe is sitting down and saying to themselves, do we go to a shopping center this weekend? there are doubts in minds and, again, a more obvious level, the tourist industry is impacted. in places like the middle east, egypt, tunisia, industry is destroyed. again, will there be another terrorist attack and where will it the? you cannot trade those issues. say it will take some time to play out. the ecb coming up and adam thinks the fed is talking.
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the dollar index. much more extended do the trades get? >> we are at extreme levels cannot see ad i story of where that is going to end. and we havecendo not seen that. a rio tinto strategy. will be produced.
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we need to see an actual event and we have not seen that yet. >> stay with us. there is plenty more. the daywalk you through ahead. later,ce and germany and we get the eurozone first look. get u.s. manufacturing pmi. what else are we talking about? some get a green light. we will talk about that.
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>> in london, the sun is coming up over the capital. it looks nice and it is cold out there. brussels, he remained in lockdown. on maximum terror alert, there is school shock and it would dominate eurozone finance ministers. meanwhile, the u.k. prime minister said he would -- the military budget. he went to paris this morning to discuss the security situation. be advisor is expected to announced today and it is a
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takeover. company to move there a dress outside the united states. those of the stories you need to know. >> thank you. the european markets open and asia wraps up the day. look at the latest foot that. -- latest of that. you see the indices. do not be confused. you see green and the equities are up. a lot of the big names are dragging down the regional index you see right now. and we have that region here. there is 12 straight month of deflation.
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shanghai is not getting much direction. what is really going to happen? you may remember back with the money markets climbing. the investors try toward more cash and we expect the last up billions of dollars. the market can stand alone. the hang seng is down and malaysia stocks are up. and almost breaching
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the 100 mark. and that is the shanghai market down. i think the other metals are not looking too great today. i want to talk about the brokerages and we saw a mixed picture. is falling at the end of the session. we need to talk about the big ,tory of the day and this story we have not heard from the ceo or the chairman and the have not talked to him since wednesday. there is shares plummeting more than 10% today.
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>> thank you very much, indeed. the security regulators being tired of the freeze on the new share sales. we are joined by you. why now. >> well, i think you are seeing a government wanted to let the market go on its own and they have really pleased things up sure it did not go down too far. they are having a rally and things are looking good. they have to allow the ipo's. you can only clamp down on the offerings for so long. andave the economic reform they want to shift away on the
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old euros -- the old growth drivers and power the economy. this fits in with the plans. the chairmant seen of the brokerage firm and we are worried about that. it is the short side and the long side. >> well, what you are seeing is a great deal of caution at the beingime with the market and that is something that causes a great deal of concern with the government increasing the margins and fine tuning the market to not allow people to
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borrow too much money to invest in the market. messagestradictory where they want the market to get out and run and they are tweaking the margins. potentialoader downturn. >> nice to see you. thank you for joining us. and theemerging markets x is here.f fa good morning. -- is the fed a done deal? do they have a free hand? >> they have a free hand with the emerging-market currencies a done deal at this stage with emerging markets and
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rate hikes and wage data. we get a clear idea of the scope respond.cale and they we have rushed at the moment. >> the commodities are going down. they get a lot of new it isation quickly and continuing. >> it is continuing and it is bad news for the commodity producers. the bigger deal is the commodity seenne and we have currencies react and declining. whether or not that continues is we will seew
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aggressive commodities and we will see it a little bit more. coming into 2016, i do not think we will see a capitulation of the currencies. it is more or less in line. >> are we getting to the point where we can start looking at quites and, we are not there yet. we are bottoming out. it is all doom and gloom. the improvements start with a big pickup. >> the markets have a mindset and i understand their point. china is the biggest consumer and it depends on where you see this going. i see china in a hard landing. >> they can be a devaluation. that seems like a big number to me. >> they tried to control the
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market and they had done that with the shanghai index as they are potentially in a bull market territory with a bit of smoke and mirrors going on. with commodities, they are telling you the real story. decimateduction was in the markets around the world with people in the u.k. having problems. they did not set -- it did not of itd they have a habit dominating. >> can we understand china and the dynamics of what is happening with the commodity story? can we make the decision on the emerging markets? >> you are asking if we can
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believe the chinese data and, on the official gdp numbers, they are smooth and they do not seem to correlate well with the releases. if you look at the underlying that, it is analyze clear that there is a more aggressive slow down than the official numbers would indicate. in the end, i do not see the the retail consumer side seems to be reasonable. >> how much risk is that? >> it is a risk. unquestionably. not something you see in the data. it does not mean it cannot happen. >> if it were to happen -- >> you would say yes.
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trading, itat the is moving with a botched evaluation that they have and they have stabilized a bit. open this will a move.and we could see that would be slow. that would not be a one-off. seen this year, we see the valuation and it is aggressive and fast. >> thank you very much. stephen isaacs will stay with us and we will talk about what is happening with the story in a moment. paris within francois hollande. we'll have the latest in a moment. ♪
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we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. guy: red sky in the morning, shepherds warning. you are looking at a very red we over london and i suspect will see some equity news as well coming out of the british capital as well. london has cooled down by 6/10 of 1%. on the fair value calculation. the commodity story. commodities are down. quite hard in asia and that will be rippling into the london market this might art we will check in with your top stories. >> brussels remains on lockdown today as authorities keep the city on maximum security alert.
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the metro and shops have all been closed. terrorism is topping the discussion. of pfizeron merger and allergan could be announced as early as today. the deal is being structured as a takeover by the much smaller allergan. an inversion may make it easier for the combined companies to cut taxes by moving its official address outside of the u.s. deutsche bank plans to cut 1000 jobs in london next year according to a newspaper report. theu.k. sunday times says laos are part of an overhaul announced last month. it is going to shrink its workforce by 9000 over the next three years. the next president of argentina after winning the general election the two-time mayor of one of cyrus will take office on december 10. buenosne of cyrus --
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aires. it also heralds the end of punitive taxes. those are the stories you need to know. guy: that is affecting the trade today. get to paris right now. david cameron is about to arrive for his meeting with the french president. it marks the start of a very busy week for the french president. what are these two guys going to be talk about? it is going to be a very busy, probably the busiest week in terms of diplomacy in terms of the french president. david cameron is expected to arrive any moment. will suggest the possibility of joint airstrikes in syria. so far, the u.k. is not involved
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in any airstrikes in syria, only in iraq in this fight against the islamic state. see,e moment, as you can we are still expecting the arrival of david cameron at any moment. so far, france is the only western country a long with the united states to directly target the islamic state in syria with airstrikes. of course, the rest of the week, the present -- the french president will fly to washington to meet with barack obama and he will have dinner with angela merkel on wednesday before going to moscow on thursday to meet with russian president vladimir putin. -- the frenchn president will try to unite all of the allies in this fight against terrorism. the difficulty is to build some sort of bridge between the u.s. and russia.
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as you know, the u.s. has been very reluctant to have any joint military action in syria with russia. as long as russia's of words the syrian president. france has shown more flexibility and willingness to work with russia. the french aircraft carrier charles de gaulle is going to work with the russian naval forces in the region. accordingally ready to the defense minister to strike syria as soon as today. obviously, it is a tricky position for france as well that that we are just after the crisis with ukraine. at the moment, the french activity come the french involvement in syria is only airstrikes. no troops on the ground. in the short term, it will stay this way. guy: thank you very much indeed.
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looking at a live picture. it looks like david cameron will be arriving any seconds. driving through the courtyard. aswill look for this arrival we see the british prime minister walking across looking very serious. things to talk about today. a lot of things to talk about. how the british and french work hand-in-hand? how will they deploy their militaries? see then would like to wiping off of the face of the earth of crisis. britain plans to announce a little later on today that it is going to be spending more on its military, increasing the budget by 12 billion pounds. this in response to the terror threats. let us talk about this.
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we are in a world of austerity yet we are going to be spending more on defense arm of the u.k. government. how will this happen? >> security is our priority. george osborne will also make it a priority. the picture has changed dramatically. five years ago, big cuts to the armed forces. david cameron has been warned by military and intelligence cheese that britain faced a certain security risk because of that. he has also got to make the case for airstrikes in syria and he cannot be seen to be doing that while cutting back the defense budget. he has boosted equipment by 12 billion, he is making sure that they can deploy new rapid response teams. the focus is on preventing terror at home but also abroad. guy: at the same time, the
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budget for the police cuts. how do these two things fit hand-in-hand? the police play a major part in the force that secures the u.k.. >> indy. this is a tricky question for the prime minister. it looks like bullies numbers will because. counterterror budget are going third which is a quite a substantial increase. we know that all of the departmental cuts have been agreed upon. the home office will take a hit. it is a balancing act. the public finance figures are not good. the october november -- the october numbers were not very good. guy: how difficult a balancing act is the chancellor facing
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when he makes the announcement later on this week? how bad were the tax receipts? how much more spending will there have to be? -- french has completely have completely changed the number. they said they will do whatever it takes from a military or security point of view to defend what happens in france. we --will we hear a similar line from the u.k.? >> the government has put itself in a difficult position. what might happen. we have had some hints of that. the surplus might be scaled back. if a chancellor or prime minister stands up in parliament and says -- we have got to increase spending to boost security at home, very few people will take opposition to that. it is a necessity.
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at the moment come the main thing for cameron is to convince parliament to vote for airstrikes in syria. remember, two years ago, he faced defeat and he does not want that to happen again. guy: how does this fit inside the labour party? you have a leadership and a parliamentary party that are on a different page. >> there were extraordinary moments at the prime minister's discussion time where we saw labor actually criticizing jeremy corbyn. it is a very tricky moment for corbyn. it could be decisive for his leadership. guy: is it a done deal if you can get this through? >> i would not say it is a done deal because there are a number of conservative mps that are opposed to the strike. he needs the support of people in opposition including the labour party. the noises we are hearing, there are quite a few labor mps who could back the government on this.
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on thursday, he will explain how he intends to do this. the new to has changed since the paris attacks. i would guess that it will be carried through. the political script has been changed. has the economic script been changed in the u.k.? >> the same sort of issues at play in europe. and securityse going to change overall fiscal situations. the keynesians. if you cut spending and carry on doing that, your economy will contract. that is what has happened to the eurozone. the u.k. is an exception. they have gotten away with it. are we now seeing that whole position up and it in particular because of the ending of the german control over europe. i have to believe that merkel position is very much at risk now. maybe the 10 year itch.
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other political leaders come in italy and britain, people like blair and thatcher, you get into a situation where something comes along, people look hard at you. with blair it was the iraq war. what the germans were trying to say last week was that -- may become some of the passports were planted in paris and hence, there was no connection. they were angry that people were saying that the refugee situation was being used by terrorists. germans have put themselves and europe in an awkward position. can they now continue to dominate discussions on things like fiscal policy? i do not think they can. prepared to play a european leadership role? >> the referendum remains one of
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the stickiest situations for him. i think it has not helped the camp to see yes these examples of what people associate with the borders. there have even been questions from the tories saying we need support -- control over our borders. cameron needs to get approval for these airstrikes first. he cannot play a leadership role while he is not allowed by his .wn parliament to intervene without the military intervention, he cannot really be seen as leading. guy: it will be an interesting couple of weeks in politics. about what has been happening in the corporate sector. pfizer and allergan could announce a merger.
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$150 billion. one of the biggest in the pharmaceutical sector is ever. will, therere is a is a way. the u.s. treasury may be trying to cram down on mergers. taxrder to legally move its domicile abroad and get tax benefits. it seems like pfizer and allegan are determined nonetheless to come to some sort of agreement. what is interesting is the way the terms seem to have changed here last week, we were talking about a takeover. pfizer taking over alabama. we are hearing that pfizer will exchange 11.3 shares for each allegan share. it is structured so that allergan is technically buying the much bigger pfizer. worth 100 $50 billion. it could be the biggest deal in the pharmaceutical industry, in
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billion.50 it could also be the biggest tax and version in history. these two companies are fairly determined. the boards were expected to sign off on the agreement yesterday and we could hear news of the deal as soon as today. guy: something to watch out for today. what else should we be watching out for? data out of europe today. we will take a look at those never scared the french, german pmi. we will look ahead at those numbers later on when we come back. ♪
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guy: 7:47 a.m. in london. brussels remains on lockdown today as authorities keep the city on maximum terror alert. schools, shops, and the underground network have closed. the issue of terrorism will
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dominate a meeting of eurozone leaders. they are discussing 2016 draft national budgets. the commodities slumped is deepening with oil and metals retreating. copper test the lowest level since 2009. crude has extended its decline with venezuela predicting prices may drop as low as $20 a barrel unless opec takes action to stabilize the market. for about 1.8 billion euros. the deal would create the biggest maker of cash machines and security systems with more than $5 billion in sales. those are the series you need to know. guy: let us talk about the data we can expect later. french and german eurozone pm eyes. france first. germany, a half-hour later. what will it look like? let us go and get a preview. hans: middling.
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the expectation for france manufacturing and that is the one i am looking for for france because it is a question of how durable the recovery is. expectations for 50.8. the last time france had a print above 51 was way back in april 2014. i will see if they will break through that 51. any number north of 50 signals expansion. in germany, manufacturing has been at 51-52 range all year. are for 51.6.ns we will see what happens on the services side. service and composite has been holding up much better in germany. holding at 54. the eurozone number again. we will see how far north of 50 it is. i think the composite expectation is 54.0 and for the last month, it was 53.9. there has been a lot of talk from especially when we got upset about gdp figures a couple
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of fridays ago, there is no longer discussion of how soft the recovery is. at least the composite survey further eu has been north of 50 or high 54th.s that number is what i am looking at. it will come out at 9:00 your time. i will bring my wife iq even faster. we will not complain about technical albums on air. we will just talk about the numbers. guy: we never ever complain about those kinds of issues. hans: inappropriate. guy: nice to see you in berlin. a quick stop check. product is down heavily in hong kong. it cross into the european luxury stacks. the commodity sector will be hit hard. keep an eye on the luxury sector this morning. product is hit in hong kong. the chairman is with us.
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let us go to the states and talk about the corporate story there because on the face of it, people are comfortable with what is happening with the u.s. economy. the corporate story -- the profit numbers -- it does not look so rosy. >> if you have a vampire portfolio, facebook and network and google, that is where the earnings have been this year. -- facebook amazon -- if you look more broadly into the u.s. economy, energy is in the tank. even industrials, and there were some pungent comment made last week. a manufacturer of heavy engines said we were in a recession already. this is -- guy: is this the dollar or something else?
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>> capital goods cycles move at a different pace. the first thing that happened to take down earnings was commodities, particularly energy in the u.s. which was ace bill over. -- which was a spillover. after that, you have capital goods. starting to spill around the world. i have to say it makes a very concerned. ipo we saw the square saw a number of technical ipos not be as punchy as we expected. is the text area safe? tech area safe? >> it is difficult to say. there are no earnings.
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it is a complete growth stock. i am hazarding to call time for them but what i am saying is that their ability to carry the entire economy and the entire earnings story has been reached. guy: where you put money then --where do you put money then? >> private equity. a comment on private equity -- they have the ability to see the longer term, to take advantage of big dislocations. they have an opportunity if they can shelter them behind a private equity wall. they are not subject to the vagaries of the day-to-day market. i think they can do well. guy: nice to see you this morning. thank you for your time. it will be a very busy day. he will be opening the cash market for us. >> the commodity crunch continues. 4.5% for the first
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time since 2009. the commodity market together with the fx market and it is the story would expect. the dollar index pushing back towards the 2015 high, pushing back towards the 100 mark. the commodities slumped deepens. that story but the brussels story put together. brussels is on lockdown. the commodity market, the prospect of more intervention in the middle east and that the u.k. may take part in strikes. from $40 a down barrel. the supply story for now insulating the commodity story from any impact or drive higher that could come from middle east tension. put that together with belgium. look at the belgian front and bond curve. the yield is still negative. the supply story insulating commodity reaction. the qe story insulating any bond action. we will talk about bond markets because the german pmi number comes out.
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i would ask the question even if that is a blowout number, it will not stop the ecb . guy: how big does he go? looking forward to that. sounds like a great show. a lot of analysis and data to go with it. reaction at at that 10:30 a.m. want to show you what is happening on the european equity -- equities. london is down more. the commodity story as john said. you could see some of those big commodity producers very much under pressure this monday mine. that is it for countdown. on the move is next. have a great day. that is a pretty shot of london, isn't it? ♪
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jonathon: good morning. welcome to on the move. i'm jonathan ferro. live from the city of london. moments away from the start of european trading. let us get street your morning brief. the commodity crunch continues. copper dropped to the fresh six-year low as the dollar pushes back to a 2015 high. the slump deepens. argentina elects a probe is as president. business a pro president. brussels on lockdown. the working week begins in europe with the belgian capital staying shuttered down.
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20 seconds away from the market open. 15 seconds away from the market opening here in europe. >> equity markets going to hold on to last week's rally? part wethe question have hawkish comments from the fed over the weekend. we of the euro zone pmi's to throw into the mix. let us take a look and see how the markets are opening. you are looking at the ftse 100 just off a little bit right now. there is the ftse 100, down to death of 1%. still waiting for the dax to open but it looks like these markets could be opening a little weaker. -- fromy from taking last week taking a breather. the big story is the continuing slump in commodities. let us take a look at some of the main movers. starting with commodity producer, it bhp billiton down 2.7%.


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