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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  August 30, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT

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anna: a political death sentence. that is what results suspended president is calling the impeachment process making her plea in congress. investors way the odds of a fed rate hike. we speak to the central bank vice chair, stanley fischer. an apple day of reckoning. it faces a tax bill running into the billions of euros as the eu is set to say that ireland granted it illegal eight. -- illegal aid.
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welcome to the program. this is countdown. manus: what does the day ahead look like? stanley fischer will be on bloomberg. a discussion with him. will spain get a new government? anna: risk radar. asia equity markets stronger this morning. at the centerncy of things for the japanese equity markets. extending losses post jackson hole. a big impact on the stock market yesterday. the dollar is climbing. the yandex ended its losses. the longest losing streak in five months. it a fed story or a yen weakness story? mark the fact that it
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looks like president rousseff's days are numbered. it is tying in to the currency there. the biggest stock market. the best-performing stock market today. it looks as though president rousseff is saying the impeachment would amount to her death sentence and put at risk the country's democracy. anna: we are supposed to get the final vote. the weakness in the brazilian economy. about ahead of the informal gathering of the opec members in september in algiers. we spoke about that yesterday and how the markets are positioning. one analyst said people keep running from one side of the boat to another which is a nice way to some things up. we have had a volatile asian session so far.
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-- s: anna: it is down at about 37 or so. manus: all ahead of the jobs numbers. let us get the bloomberg first word news. facing ais set to be potential tax bill running into the billions of euros. with an eu ruling as early as today. the commission is expected to say that ireland provided illegal aid for a sweetheart deal in terms of creating jobs. apple said it had nothing to add to previous statements. anyand has vowed to fight adverse data. stability may be coming to an end. the relative markets are pointing to depreciation. monthly increase since january. have alsocators --
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climbed indicating rising expectations for a decline. german foreign policy spokesperson and ally of angela merkel says the u.k. will have to pay into the eu budget if it wants the single market advantages. if someone wants to benefit from the european union single market structure, he also has to contribute to the cost of that operation. for example, as norway does. they pay into the system. referendum, no one talked about that. joined by be bloomberg reporter in berlin.
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salaries have come under pressure in the u.k. and companies are advertising more contract positions. according to an index by a job-search engine. the salaries are down by 2.4%. japanese airlines have canceled more than 19 domestic flights in the face of a typhoon expecting -- affecting at least 5000 passengers. some factoriesng as a precaution. the storm could bring more rain in one day than what normally falls in the whole month of august. the american actor gene wilder has died at the age of 83. took the lead role in the willy wonka and the chocolate factory. he also starred in such comedies as blazing saddles. he died on sunday in connecticut
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due to complications from the alzheimer's disease. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. topcan find more stories on go. get into the markets now. move in thes on the automakers are pacing higher. david: we are pushing towards a session high when you look at dollar-yen. decent move.g at a we are coming off of the top on monday. aremarkets that did well treading water at the moment but the markets that underperformed are doing well today. have a look at what is happening in australia. have a look at this decline.
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we are up 0.4%. well off the high of the session. japanar bond auction in drew fairly high coverage. four and half times the yield. people are still lining up around the corner to buy debt yielding you basically nothing. that is an important point to make. two-year yields over japan is falling. equities looking like this across the region. a decent session across asia if it were not for the fact that there were low volumes. 20% thinner in terms of trade compared to what we are used to seeing this time of day. setting us up for what could likely be a more interesting september. september has not been kind to equities but it sets us up for something more interesting.
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across asia is -- theere is still volumes have not come back to where they were a few years ago. anna: thank you, david. brazil's suspended president impeachmentat her trial in the senate and is issuing a personal appeal. to ag that it would amount political death sentence and put at risk the country's democracy. >> twice, i came close to death. once when for days i was tortured suffering aggression that made me doubt humanity and life itself. and a serious and painful existence almost made my life shorter. today i am concerned about the death of democracy. .anus: the emerging market president rousseff -- if she can
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convince the congress not to impeach her, is there any possibility of that? does not seem to be the case. she gave a very emotional and very intense speech yesterday. as she was widely expected to do in brazil but she did not bring anything new. people are expecting the procedures to happen as they were supposed to. and the acting president right believes that he has 60 votes against her, that are in favor of her impeachment. which would mean that he would be the president through 2018 if that happens. so even though her speech was very intense and very strong, it seems like things will not
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change from what we previously knew. anna: when do we get the final results? it seems the purse -- the process has been a long one. will it really be over later today? >> that might take a while. we have more than 50 brazilian senators that have are the signed up to speak publicly in the senate about the whole impeachment process. senators against her and there are supporters of her case into brazil -- in the brazil senate as well. the team of the acting president believes this could be over by the end of the day. but there is no guarantee that it will actually be done either. know for surely the voting later today or early tomorrow morning.
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manus: the markets have had a nice run every time the impeachment draws closer. we have had this whole impeachment discussion happening in brazil since the end of last year. the local currency and the main stock benchmark in brazil have both rallied this year. they are among the top performers globally mainly because investors believed this would happen. they believe this is necessary for brazil to get out and recover from the deep economic recession we are seeing in the country right now. so there is a big expectation within the markets that this is just a formal procedure. that it will be over in a matter of a day. reactsets should not differently from what we have seen so far.
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actually, as a good example of this, we saw the currency and the market both climbed yesterday after she spoke in the senate. there is not much surprise. markets and the investors are tending to look at right now is how he will view the support for his own government from now on. anna: thank you very much. our emerging market reporter. cio of the investment management. great to see you. let us talk about the brazilian story. the closer we look to be to the final rejection of president rousseff, the more appetite we seem to see for brazilian assets. how strong is the brazilian investment case for you? >> there is quite a bit of hope in those prices and more blame on the president then what may
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actually be factually the case. there is still quite ahead for the brazilian economy. just like we saw the slide last year -- anna: are they vulnerable? >> they are no more than fairly priced. manus: it is the best performing index in terms of equities. looking at the corporate bonds. the have delivered 23% this year. is that a reach for yield or a relief as it were in terms of a political state of play? will these rallies run out of steam? >> it is a combination of hope and reach for yield. sloshing hot money around. until we see some actual factual
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revival of the brazilian economy, i would be a bit careful. anna: it seems like brazil stands alone with the things theirrive interest in assets and their investment case in terms of the politics. the broader emerging market story, how attractive is that you at a time when the fed is likely to have a rate hike by the end of the year? thatere is always the risk with a dollar rise, it would be bad for the emerging markets. time there is a bit more positive momentum in the emerging market economies. there is more momentum and positive demand around the world so i am not white is concerned the time that we will have same backlash against emerging markets as we had in the past. to getwe are going stanley fischer on bloomberg tv later today. great weight of
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expectation in terms of what he is going to say about to rate hikes. ,ooking at the short interest short interest on emerging-market stocks. 3%? short interest is declining quite aggressively. our emerging market ready for the potential of a stanley fischer swipe and to hikes -- and two hikes? two rate going to get hikes? i am not convinced. a lot will depend this week on the employment figures coming out of the u.s. i think what i am reading out of is thata at the moment the emerging markets are not quite as vulnerable anymore to the dollar going up as they were in the past. anna: what are you expecting from the payroll number? august payrolls have a history of disappointing. i think we have got this
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graphic. jp morgan pointing out that august often disappoints. some people like that seasonal statistic. what do you think? are we going to get something that will allow the fed to hike? above the as it is 150,000 mark -- anna: that is quite a low bar. >> the market is expecting 180,000. that is the consensus. i would be surprised if we got a lot less. but the nonfarm payrolls are quite volatile. anna: remember may. manus: it would be nice to get the job report off the table and jackson hole and then i think we can reset in terms of what happens next. >> indy. . am not currently -- indeed i am not currently convinced
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that we will get that height. -- manus: we have stanley fischer, janet yellen. at for september but there is high expectation. anna: and there is the small matter of the u.s. election. thank you very much for that analysis. here are some highlights for your day ahead. manus: the bank of korea at 8:00 a.m. inflation data out of spain. and a half later, mortgage improvements. cpi data.german coming up, why apple has even more to show us in september. will it be dinner and faster than ever? and fasterbe thinner than ever?
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for governor kuroda to throw away the rulebook? manus: spain's acting prime minister will be hoping to avoid but theelection in 2016 socialists are not playing ball. all of that is ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back everyone. this is countdown. 6:21 a.m. in london. set -- is said to be developing new features for the ipad including features for the desk top. upgrades for the ipad include a wider operating support. hardware will include the macbook laptop.
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be issued asould soon as late 2016. the investment bankers are said to be among 17 employees who have left voluntarily. according to people with news, theof the investment bankers are managing directors each covering major industries. a record number of overseas investments were made in the u.k. between 2015 and 2016 according to the department of international trade. funded by foreign direct investment. it rose by 11%. made possible by a surge in the emerging markets. the company has walked away from negotiations with hershey. the owner of the oreo brand said
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paththese no actionable forward towards an agreement. in june, hershey unanimously rejected the proposal. the very latest from hong kong. japan's labor market has problems with unemployment falling. spendingd household was less than estimated. to the japanese they minister abe, says should courageously intervene. he is still with us, our guest. this is a key question about japan. will they have to do more in september, will the boj have to do more in september? or because of the way that the market has interpreted jackson
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hole, does that by them sometime? -- some time? to dohink they have something if they want to participate in the global upswing. is important for them. this would not be good news for their exports. generally, itapan is still very much a question of will japan do any better than the world? the domestican get consumer spending again and that is not happening. data: if you look at the today and you break it down, we have hr for you. this is the japanese consumer, the propensity to spend. it falls below 70%. the lowest since 2015. i think this tells an important story in terms of the difference between the american consumer and the japanese consumer. what it is that the bank of
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japan has got to try to impact. it is the psyche of the consumer. >> unemployment has fallen to 3%. if that was not a sign for me to trust in the future, my job is safe and i can spend. on the one hand, it is the bank of japan who needs to make sure that japan can participate in the global upswing but it is also very much politically and structural weight how you can get japanese consumers into a more positive mood about the future. tatianhere is an expert -- or was an expectation en vogue that there was going to be more about fiscal spending and also structural reform. spoke with ubs wealth management. if they are not going to walk away from their targets, then the boj will have to deliver massive stimulus. and double down on what they have already done.
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which way would you sway on that? at theglobal sentiment moment is that the central banks have done their bit. it is limited how much more they condemn. it is the abe government which will have to act. we got very excited last month about their fiscal package. abe talks advisor to about courageously intervening. it has not struck a note with traders.vestors -- fx >> not really. we have yet to see courageous stimulus. that is what i would be looking out to get more excited about japan at the moment. weakness current benefiting the carmakers. thank you very much. you stay with us on the program. manus: after a shining
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performance, silver prices slip. we have hr of the hour. anna: later this morning -- we have the chart of the hour. will and stanley fischer be with us on surveillance. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: a shot there of tokyo's imperial palace. dollar-yen is on a losing streak. new addition of -- edition of daybreak. this is thin against gold. -- finnegans gold. what is this about? this is all about ireland and they gave apple. and what it could potentially cost apple. we are waiting to hear if
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aid and ad illegal favorable tax arrangement. betweenead everything $100 million. worst-case scenario, if the irish are found guilty of doing a favorable tax deal and helping apple, it could cost apple $19 billion. and 2007. anna: who would be more angry about this, the irish government, apple, or the u.s. treasury? the next story. prime minister rajoy he will ask the spanish parliament to back him for a second term as he's weeks two and an eight month political deadlock. pp has already done a deal with ciudadanos. that does not take them far enough. they need a few more votes to
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take them over the 176 level. manus: it is touch and go. he has the liberals from ciudadanos. one nationalist from the canary islands. if they fail to elect him and put him through as prime minister, there could be another election on december the 25th. the final story is chocolate. the companyes from interested in hershey. bid was rejected by the chocolate maker. financials have been leaving the hang seng higher today. it has been a good august for the market. n: hang seng index. hong kong has been on fire. of .9%.
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of about 5% for the month today. the best day since august the 18th. we have gotten signs that the property market in hong kong is improving. and we have companies continuing to be to estimates. chinese banks this morning are earningshead of their release. investors expecting good news from banks in hong kong. definitely something to keep your eye on. staying in asia and we were just talking about the yen weakening on the back of the speech from janet yellen in jackson hole. really interesting. the weaker yen has helped japanese stocks over the last couple of days. tad.opix down just a we have decoupling between japanese equities and equities elsewhere in asia. msci comeine is the excluding the japanese index and
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the white line is the japanese index. they are getting further and further apart from one another. at the bottom there is a correlation between the two almost falling to zero. the spread is the decoupling if divergenced the between japan's equity market and the asian equity markets in general. the greatest it has been in almost two years. it is the yen driving equity markets in japan. in case you have not noticed. with $50 aflirting barrel. as it has since january. climbing a little bit higher today. interesting to see if it will hit $50 today or later this week. on the terminal, traders are thecipating when we get government dated tomorrow on inventories from the u.s., getting towards 1.5 billion euros a day. for theld be bearish
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price of oil. i am a big believer in general with this stuff. nothing like a good cup of texas tea. prices have dropped after what has been a shining performance this year. the hour. chart of >> for the best part of the year, we have had an upward direction for silver. the reality is that august has been tough. down 7.2%, outpacing gold. it is coming under pressure as expectations for a rate hike index not just for september but also for december were certainly. this chart shows you what has happened with the two metals. a 7% drop.
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i have highlighted it for you. we are also seeing pressure in the holdings in the biggest etf act by silver. 25% even after this major correction. and for gold, you are also still up substantially. the bloomberg median forecast $19 an to bely, the expectation taken realistically is that there are more downward pressure. howt will have to do on the data shapes up for the expectations of a rate hike later this year. anna: thank you very much. chart of the hour. a senior lawmaker in angela merkel's cdu's says the u.k.
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will have to pay into the eu budget if it wants the single market advantages. this is diminishing britain's prospects for a low-cost solution. >> if someone wants to benefit from the european unions single market structure, he also has to contribute to the cost of the operation. as norway does. norway is paying into the funding. but written before the referendum, no one talked about that factor. manus: we are joined by our government reporter in bloomberg in berlin. why has angela merkel been so reluctant to defined germany's redline in these negotiations with britain and yet here we are raising the first flag about the reality of perhaps the german position? >> good morning.
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angela merkel has been reluctant to say openly what she wants or what germany wants simply because she said there will be no pre-negotiations before britain has officially triggered the close 40 which would start the whole process of right fit. she also does not want to give away the german position. but mainly it is also because she just wants to see what britain says first. anna: we had thought she would wait for that to be triggered. thats freedom of movement, eucific tenant of the agreement, why is that so important to her and her government? >> it is one of the basic principles of the eu single market and i think that angela
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there is worried that could be a bad precedent or a bad example. and she just wants to make clear that there will be no special deal for whatever country leaves the european union. special deal,s a the next country will also want a special deal. very much forou joining us and putting that in context. we are talking about brexit and where we go next on this story. i was drawn to the data, foreign direct investments into u.k.. it has done very nicely. that it isrgue backward looking. it is up 11%. a number of investments by foreign direct investors into the u.k.. you could argue that it is backward looking but we knew the
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brexit boat was coming. does that show that investors were comfortable or did they never expect this to happen? >> i think it is the latter. it was not expected so i would not read too much into it at the moment. the positives are that the consumer does not to -- does not seem to be phased in the markets have ignored it more or less and given it the benefit of the doubt. i think we have had a nice summer lull so far. are better in august then in july. the jury is out but if the politicians return and make new statements about what may or may not be, i expect more volatility in the markets. manus: the politicians return and the hubris will return. sterling has lost 1.37%. respite inmentary
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sterling. upswinga believer in an in sterling? we willnk we are where be for a while. i think it will go sideways with a bit of volatility unless we get the article 50 triggered quicker than we think. manus: is that when we understand the real german position, the franco german position? think we will know what the position is exactly at that point but we will know the clock has started ticking and we are out of the hiatus where we are at the moment. anna: you wonder if things will look more negative just after article 50 is triggered. that is when you will hear the opening arguments. they will probably look very far apart, it won't -- monday?
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--won't today? they? >> freedom of movement is not just an issue in the u.k. and for the u.k. electorate it is an issue everywhere. i am not sure how strongly they will push that point. manus: we have a story. u.k. salaries weekend as employers start to hesitate post-brexit. they are advertising salaries follow it -- falling. if you think of the punches we will take, one is brexit and what that means, another is the drop in sterling and the inflation. spendingeality of our power is annihilated. bit is concerning but i will not draw any longer-term conclusions because
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that is still very much under it the july timeframe, those are not the august figures just yet. these are advertised figures as opposed to reported figures. it talks about our real income. word let us have a quick on spain. we have an important process taking place in spain today. underlying economy is doing quite nicely without any official government. read into that as you well. december was inconclusive as was june. >> there seems to be a a lot of hope that we will get movement from a caretaker government to an actual government. i am not so positive on that. manus: we will get a little bit more on spain and what that means. stay with us. anna: raining on the parade.
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fresh launch from apple. manus: a political death sentence. president rousseff nine-month impeachment process reaches a fevered pitch. it looks like the senate is standing strong. anna: spain's acting prime minister, rajoy will hope to avoid a third election in a year. but the socialists are not playing ball. that is straight ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 1:47 a.m. in new york. u.s. trading day had a nice pop yesterday in the post jackson hole environment.
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that is carrying through to the asian session. flash broughtness to you from hong kong. apple is said to be developing new features for the ipad. to cater to professional users along with new desktops. software upgrades for the ipad includes wider operating support with accessories. the first mac hardware includes new versions of the laptop. the company hopes to ship the updated software next year. investment bankers are said to be a among 17 employees in web left voluntarily since the japanese bank cut pay and personnel in the americas. the investment bankers were managing directors covering major industries. a spokesperson declined to comment. a record number of overseas
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investments were made in the u.k. in the 2015-2016 financial year. projects were funded by foreign direct investment and they rose to 11%. buoyed bye was investment from the emerging markets. condoleezza has walked away from takeover discussions with hershey two months after the bid was rejected by the chocolate maker. the chocolate maker it says it sees no actionable path forward towards an agreement. in june, hershey unanimously rejected the bid. the european union is expected to say today that ireland provided apple with illegal eight through favorable tax agreements according to people familiar with the situation. apple billionsst
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of euros. choice -- bureau bureau chief joins us. how will the story likely unfold? >> take a step back. this is a process that began about three years ago. and today is the latest stage. it has been clear for some time that there will be an adverse ruling handed down to apple and ireland. midmorning i expect to get that decision and quickly afterwards we will see ireland saying it and appeal the decision apple as well. all eyes will be on the size of the fine. the question is how big will the fine be? an us there is everything between the upper band and the lower band.
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the lower band does not look too bad. morning, some thought it would be close to 100 million. that mood changed yesterday afternoon when it was thought the fine would be much larger, closer to billions. told not to beng surprised that it will be a massive amount. we are expecting a big number today. this is just the latest stage in the game. the case could be in the courts for five years or more. is the broader implication here? it is hard to know, this is about specific sweetheart deals that ireland signed with a particular tech company. the european commission might
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have something to say about the tax environment in ireland. any sense rejects that it gave out a sweetheart deal. i do not think that this case is about ireland's low corporate tax situation. there is no threat to that low corporate tax rate. that is important to ireland biguse those rates attract companies like google and facebook. this is the one specific deal with one pacific company that ireland may have reached with one specific-- deal with one specific company that ireland may have reached with that one company. thank you very much for filling us in. our dublin bureau chief.
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our guest is still with us. this is a fantastic story. we don't know the number. the ramifications could be quite profound. the u.s. tax authorities are also quite peaked about this. >> yes they are. interested in these sweetheart deals. but they want to get their cause tax revenue.that you -- there is a phenomenon at the moment that technology companies based in silicon valley are not able to bring that money back home because of fear they would have to pay too much tax in the u.s. are you excited about the tax story in the u.s.? >> yes, but generally no.
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there is too much hype about individual stocks. it is a stock pickers market. i would not buy the sector as a whole. manus: let us talk about one of the charts we have. global perspective. where do we go next? volatility. the net short is in the blue. the white line is an etf following the s&p 500, the nasdaq. the highest since 1986. are you part of the retail camp or the institutional view that five decades will continue? fund and ofhe hedge
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things. reads to me that the institutional cap is quite bullish about equities going forward. what we have at the moment is the institutional world can see the medium term. manus: you are drawing a clear differential. when we talk about the -- you areal market suggesting that the hedge fund is one way and the in -- and the institutional market is the other way. >> they are not liking it. they are opposing risk for the market because we could get some distinct volatility in september. september is a difficult month and there is a rate hike looming as well. i would be with the institutional pension side. in the medium term is positive at the moment that in the short term we could get some -- quite some volatility.
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anna: we have the opec meeting and the boj and the fed. we have all of these things on the radar including the presidential campaign. a back-to-school feeling for september. what is the biggest risk to the equity rally? what is the big risk? that weiggest risk is get something similar to january and there is a growth scare coming from somewhere be that china or the u.s. the general sentiment is that growth is ok in the medium term. suggest that would that is not the case would be a risk. manus: thank you for joining us. anna: it is 6:56 a.m. in london. brazil's suspended president makes her plea against the
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impeachment process. we have all of the details next. late intove to wait tonight to get the conclusion of this drama or at least the next stage of this long, multiyear saga. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: a political death sentence, according to the president of brazil. making her plea in congress. the dollar trips higher as investors weigh the odds of a fed rate hike. we speak with the central bank vice chair stanley fischer at 11:30 a.m. and apples day of reckoning. the iphone maker faces a tax bill running into the billions as the eu is set to rule ireland on the legal aid.
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you are welcome to "countdown." anna: welcome to the program. 7:00 here in london. yesterday we saw equity markets in the u.s. a little stronger getting into the asian equity mscion, we were up in the and it looks like it will pick up a little bit on european equities. manus: the rest of the markets are fresh to the upside. i had a day off yesterday, did you notice? i was missed. the rest of the european equity markets -- let's have a look at the risk radar. it will be about the conversation with stanley fischer and will spain get a new government? will deliver south finally go? anna: we have the risk radar for
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continuations of that scene yesterday, 102.18. we saw the yen extending losses posted jackson hole, the dollar climbing -- will the boj have to do more or has the fed done enough in terms of turning the dial on the japanese currency war? manus: w.a.r. pete has dropped -- wirp has dropped. automakers are driving the and ine stocks higher, months that is the longest losing streak. , stillrude numbers up hanging around $47 with the inventory data. divine toneed to be divine this, it will be more volatility. the iraqi prime minister has
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agreed with the kurdistan regional government -- more output to come. anna: oil prices in the morning. 1%.sually moves by at least that is what we are looking at on the risk radar. on the u.s. 10 8%.r, 1.5 german bund+++
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word ns with rosalind in. let's t the bloomberg first rosalind: apple is saito be facing a potential tax bill nng to billions of euros with an eu r eing ly a today. e eupe commissiois expected to use a legal aid for a sweetheart deal eating jobs. apple said it had nothing to add but did say they received selective treatment. ireland has denied any adverse findgs. derivative markets are pointing to depreciatn with a three sinceexpected price january. discount over the spot rate has also climbed, it ti wining expfo decline. a senior lawmaker of uncle and says thegela meel eu market will have to pay, diminishing britain's prospect for a low-cost solution to exit the eu. benefit ofwants to the european union, they also have to contribute to the cost of raising -- there is no way
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and they will pay into it britain before the referendum, nobody talked about it. anna: u.k. jobseekers are starting to feel the impact of brexit. companies are advtising more contract positions as they resist committing toermanent hiring. it says the average advertising is down in july. japanese airles have canceled more than domestic flights in lion rock, affecting at least 5000 passengers. factoriesclosing to in caution. raintorms could bring more in one day than the whole of august. and the american actor gene wilder h died at the age of 83. he is best remembered for his lead roles in the original
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"willy wonka and the chocolate factory." he was also in "blazing saddles," well as "young frankstein." global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on t bloomberg top . i'm rosalind chin. this is bloomberg. manus: let's get into the markets withavid ingles standing by. the dollar-yen is on a losing streak -- how to the aan markets he hated? -- asian markets behave? david: it's very interesting. we are really pushing to the --ide, so manus: we have a little bit of a sound problem.
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technically monday morning for me. we will get back to him hortly. the marketare stronger this morni. anna: it seems to be benefiting from japanese exporters. brazil's spended president took to the stand in her issuingent trial, cotry's da death, i came close to once when for days i was tortured, suffering aggression that made me doubt humanity and life itself. a serious and painful illness almost made my existence shorter. today i am afraid of the death of democracy. was sge able to convince the senate not to impeach her?
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that doesn't seem to be the case. ion't thk she was tually le to bring anything new to the discussionn the enate, basically she ga a very intense and passionate in front of the whole ouny and they were full of supporters and people against her, and there was a lot of pressure and expectations what she cod tually bri up. her speech was intense, but it didn'add anhing new, so basically there is an expectation that things will contin as they were expected and this should not be a game changer. anna: give us an idea about the timing. are we going to have to stay up late into the evening here in europe to get some kind of clusconn, and even if we do will it be the end of the story? >> the vote would definitely be
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the end of the story for her, ut we dnot knowor sure when and out exactly what moment. we have more than 50 brazilian senators already lined up to speak in the senate today and the discussion can last the whole day in brazil and there is a voting expected to happen by the end of the night inwhole die happening but they couldn't finish tomorrow morning. at this point it is hard to say when. manus: thank you very much. we are joined on set by the global market strategist at j.p. morgan asset management ice fothe demise and for economic success -- this is the
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best-performing stock of all the major indices we have covered here, that the 4%. is that fully priced for an impeachmen >> certainly. markets arethat the really pricing in a close of this chapter, to me rward in terms of what is next budget the fundamentals justify that? . d't think so sim: : does that mean -- hisl they bwhled out meomorrow to tk about at we sn brazilian equities? >> there's a poibity of that, there's a loser timeframe in terms of voting but i think there could be some volatility in that market, selloff if the news doesn't go as most hope. manus: there has be aal i
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markets but this is the corporate bond story s&p with a negative outlook on more than 60% of brazilian corporate marks . this year they have come from brazil, this is the year dropping like a stone, and yet if there was ever a peication of t reach f case? is th a bt i the fundamentals-- wouldn't say it in those exact terms but i think there's a lot of tourism going on in the world when you have 75% global government bonds, when you have european central bas and corporate bonds, the bank o gland dog that, the u.k., emerging markets are further down that spectrum that you can see this happening even in one of t less credit wory emerging markets spaces. anna: so they aren't even pricing in the a itchman but
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possibly a lot of expectations for her successor, if they are takingnote what global markets want before starts followinghugh and really getting itnvesfuhein brazil -wh do th a couple things to really pleased the market and more importantly get economic growth growing from the government expenditures, being wiser about bt senngd reform te pensn space where a lot can be done for this young country that needs a bit of reform to make sure money i't ingspent on things that aren't necessarily boosting th.grow we arhoping to make the case in the medium to longer term. manus: i like the new phrase, yieldtourism. what we have is a chart on short interest, just to broaden the conversation, short interest is dropping precipitously in emerging markets base and this
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is the question i have for everybody. we have stanley fischer on the the esons stroneay one of fed is in terms ote hikes -- is this folly in terms of the short interest drop, this bullishness in terms of emerging markets? >> there is certainly fferencerosix mohsgo en there w a real panic and that february space and the fundamentals are actually looking better -- you have a stabilization in oil price with some fears out of china, and then y havesome of the asian earning expectatio reundingm the loe s -- with that you can see a slightly better outlook for emerging markets in general, and general market sentiment looking for a positive economic outlook moother. fedand a bit anna: so you don't think with
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expectatns increang, y d't think at underminethe emging markets sry? at a big so. i think they have been telegraphed throughout the world and everyone is loing at so even theen, corporate's have issued u. dollar debt and if theare't ready for this event it's a missed game because of how well it has been communicated. anna: thank u. heta with us. ma it is said that bad news travels in threbut n spain's prime minister avoid having to go back for a third time? we look at hices.s chan anna: later this morng, manus mentioned it eaier, tom keene will be interviewing the vice chairman stanley fischer. that's on "surveillance." this is blmberg. ♪
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manus: just gone 7:17 and we are playing the catch-up game. davidtrading at 130, ingles is with us. david: thanks. applis sa to be developing new features for the ipad along with new ltops and desktops according to people familiar with the matter. e are hearing that upgrades will include wider operating system support and a freshed hopesreand the company to shiftpward next year with the new ones expected to be out soon. bankers are said to be among 17 employees who personnel according to
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people familiar. the investment bankers were managing directors a okesperson who denied comment. and r shhas wa away from they say they see "no actionable pass toward an agreement. and that's your bloomberg business flash. anna:thank yo spain's acting prime minister looks to end of eight-month politil impasse witthe confidence vote today. saidthe that ople's pay y fall srt of the ma as it can't count on support from the socialist leader pedro sanchez. manus: let's get to our eu
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government editor -- great to see you. i we finally goin get a gornmentn spain this week? tman doesn't really want to buildihe polls. >> no, the country does t wa to go back to thepolls thwe arunlikely to get a government this week. his problem is that he is still a handful of votes short of what he needs to get through and everyone he hasn't tapped looks like we have anotherst couple months of wrangling before he figure out how this shakes out. anna: why is it proving so difficult to find some sort of compromise? when i look at the numbers, am i right that they have -- they have 170 and they only need 176 to get this done. it proving so elive? what special is that you ha
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one ofhe main parties riddled with corruption allegations and that makes doing a deal complicated. either they disagree over ideology and they won't go into work or they disagree with the corruptionand so ty say because they haven't dealt with that we c't go into government with you, and that means none of the potential match ups are viable. manus: against the backdrop of all this political crisis, we have an economy which is holding up. the economy is taking along fine and the ce has slowed slightly in line with the rest of europe, but the economy is running fine. there are question marks of an - of investment does this
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majostment disions a therare a number of places the shorrm iis fe andt for when we finally do get another administration in place, they have a good se t reinvigorate the revival and to push on from here. sills,tencils -- ben still with us in the studio from j.gan asset management -- how excited would you be or how much more excited would you be about the investment story if we had this political uncertainty out of the way? >> very excited. ient is what gets people excited -- whave a strong consumer story, consumer spending ticking wa, what is missin thame pce if there is all this uncertainty overhanging. , it:tointa extent
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has fallen 11% this year, the lowest since 2014 -- do you want outee political clearing before you raise any exposures? i think weeed to see clarity but i will point out something about the larger headline, the spanish indices are mostly comprised of financials and we know all about european financials taking a big , so staying active within that exposure, they are only 12% of the msci index so if you want that consumer story you have to be selective. anna: do you go into the tap in t missi pt of the to igsawhh is investment? >> thkouant to he th nsumerxposure ready there a srt thinking about a few the industrial materials because when there's a government in
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place a lot of infrastructure spending will get pushed through which will boost part of the index. rins: house prics he in this quarter, and this is where the relief potentially cos, fhe or the and on a broader perspective,n a global perspective, we have a lot of pply coming to the market, billions of euros worth of papeork. seen the blowout of yields relative to one another -- do you see that coming back off the boil if there is political imprt?ovemen >> you could t f s yidsperipry countrs, but
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but in general i think we are in this big search for yield and even brazilian corporate debt so i don't think there will be a huge bump like april of last year when you had some blowout. anna: talking globally about the stock story, ere yo inment strategy ta he a great story it's talking about buying cyclicals and suggng that over the past two months they have managed to turn the tide against things like utilities, essentially buying -- >> it's a key part of investment strategies and they are looking so looking earnings at those stocks and understanding the framework now where we are less concerned about global growth in general,
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we still think it will be lower for longer and there are areas of shakiness but you have a strong u.s. economy, and ok u.k. brexit,ddlinthroh and that genally gives us more coidence. manus: you aren't getting out today without talking to stanley fischer -- have you shifted at all? what are you thinking? >> i think we to t a ook t rert rath be as weden i it los likeork but evything is s sing -- sometngus to expect steer. na: one ofheir colleagues pod out how all th sething in sepmber. anna: payroll n be dappointi.
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thanks for coming . nus: that's it fm an and i. you haveon the move" up next. forget,tanley fischer. that's the conversation at 11:30 a.m. today. payroll can be disappointing. ♪
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guy: welcome to "on the move." , we are counting it down to t europeaopen -- this is what we are watching. picking a fight at apple. is european commission likely to force billions of dollars in back taxes as brussel claims of state aid. how hard will it hit transatlantic laons. pain svoid its third election in a year? the parliament is holding a vote of confie


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