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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  November 6, 2016 6:00pm-8:01pm EST

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>> hillary clinton cleared -- the fbi directors is the latest review love her e-mail use has drawn no new conclusions. volatility hits a record ahead of tuesday's election. we will highlight what to watch this week. >> renewed anger over beijing's police mood and on protesters. >> and lowering the temperature markets to move property
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as much as 50%. asia." is "bloomberg it's just after 6 p.m. on this sunday evening. a big week ahead in the u.s. >> and i'm yvonne man. welcome back, betty. you came back just in time with two days before the u.s. election. hours,the last couple of james comey clearing hillary clinton on the handling of her e-mail and a market breathing a sigh of relief. miss thisould not week. i had to make sure i came back. we will be talking about this new revelation that came out from the fbi. yvonne: this shift in tone could help the market after we see what we get has been. it's look at how things are
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kicking off in new zealand. starting off with stocks really positive. peso sore.dollar and let's look at australia -- a slew of chinese data out today. stocks up at the beginning, but quiet on the aussie right now. take a look at the yen in the last couple of hours. we also threw in the mexican, the clinton-trump proxy. the peso sore and the japanese yen weakening substantially. it could be a big boost at the tokyo open this morning. that's an early look at what to expect in the to region early this morning. it's all going to be about the election in the next 48 hours. betty: we have seen the markets fall in anticipation of this tossup and what could happen in these next you days. the f ei coming out today saying that they have cleared hillary clinton of any cnal
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wrongdoing. , thenew review of e-mail brodie has been tracking all of these developments. what does this mean for the hillary clinton camp? been: when we first saw the fbi come out and say there were more e-mails to look at about 10 days ago, we saw hillary clinton's numbers start to go down immediately. she was about six points ahead and his right now two or three points ahead. one of the things we could see is two days before election, we could see the momentum starting to come back to her. betty: not too late? ben: it's not too late. it's possible that some of that loss in altitude could be trump supporters coming home to their party. you could see a point or two in these next 48 hours. just a really short time that
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people could start coming back and they may have their enthusiasts -- enthusiasm reignite for her. betty: there are a lot of editorials that comey should resign there is a big mess up at the fbi. what does that mean now? then: we are seeing both sides of the aisle really unhappy with the way this was handled. that this has caused what we would call a lot of volatility. people were not sure what was going on and what was going to happen and both republicans and democrats are calling for him to resign. he's going to have a lot of questions to answer as soon as we finish this election. betty: every day that past weekend, let's look at the states we are watching closest on election night. then: the list of what i'm focusing on changes daily. we see a lot of volatility in the polls, but i'm going to be
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looking at nevada, pennsylvania, and florida. that's where some of the really interesting movement has happened and some of the early vote has shown some momentum from clinton when she was lagging, especially in florida. they are also vote-rich states and if she is able to claim them , there's a good chance she's on her way to becoming elect the president if she wins those. it is going to be an interesting 48 hours. now let's get to first word news with tom mackenzie in beijing. former aides for the south korean president have been arrested as protesters called for her to resign over and influence peddling scandal. one aide is accused of linking -- of leaking confidential documents. another is accused of pressuring businesses to donate to the foundation. she has volunteered to be
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questioned by investigators. a source has told bloomberg that sears mistry has performed mistry is -- as a -- said to have asked the board three times to boost the payout ratio. the claim counts that majority owners were starved of information on group units and cash flow. a spokesperson said the information does not provide a complete picture. prime minister theresa may says herb exit timetable -- timetable will not be altered by the constitutional ruling. it has worsened relations with conservative papers. may says the government has a strong case to appeal the ruling that parliament must approve brexit negotiations and called on parliament to accept the outcome. >> what we have to remember is that we had a vote on the 23rd of june.
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a majority of the video -- of the british people voted to leave the european union. the government is now getting on with that. may is on the ground in delhi to leave the groundwork for a post exit deal. open full trade negotiations and still -- until it has started proceedings to the the eu, but sources say prime minister will use talks to explore what a future relationship might look like. day powers 24 hours by more than 2600 journalists and analysts more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. wrote blocked by protesters in hong kong were reopened after an overnight sent off with police. let's bring in my guest who has been following this threat the
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week will stop the video brought me for flashbacks of you and i covering occupy hong kong two years ago. >> there were some things that brought back those pro-democracy protests, but overnight, we saw scuffle between police and protesters in the western part of hong kong and what we saw was protesters blocking traffic, hundreds of police were devoid wearing riot gear and they had to use pepper spray to contain them within a designated area. some of them wore facemasks, some of them carrying umbrellas, partly to shield them, but the yellow umbrellas have come to be a symbol of the pro-democracy movement of 2014. police say four people were arrested. in the afternoon, there had been peaceful
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some 13,000 people joined the march. police it is more like 8000. off andtesters split toward the office which is what we saw in the nighttime scene. march was one of the demonstration since 2014. what more do we know about the interpretation of hong kong law? >> they could issue there interpretation as early as today. who relates to lawmakers have been in front of the court since last week. when they had to take their oath into office insulted china. they mispronounced china's name notsaid hong kong is
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representing china. the question is will they be allowed to take their seats? you can see pictures where lawmakers have tried to retake their oath and preventing other business from taking place. has sued them and wants to houston and beijing has confirmed they are discussing the issue but the committee meets behind closed doors, so we don't have any further details about what they have been discussing specifically. some people are unhappy because it is meant to be under one country, to systems and some in aboutong are concerned increasing reach of beijing into hong kong affairs. move that any move by
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beijing could undermine courts and cause unrest. certainly more to come on this story. here in the u.s., the vix rising for a record ninth straight session on friday. they question is whether volatility is set to continue in the markets. joining us is su keenan with more on this. milestone on friday. the question is will it continue ? let's go right into the bloomberg. you see the measure of market .urmoil of 73% will we make it 10? stocks posting their longest slide since 1980. the parade of earnings continues with elian's coming disney, deutsche telekom all reporting this week.
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let's go to a chart of hsbc. the focus on europe's largest lender, they said they are searching for a new group treasurer. a big deal because of the protections for taxpayers there. we got a pretty decent jobs report on friday. what kind of economic data are we looking into? will beig report tuesday with the presidential election. what we have is consumers front and center. they aresaying expecting things to be barely improved. continue. ride will in the past six sessions, it has been down 11%. analysts say we don't see any path for opec agreement and that is putting pressure on price.
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back to the chart -- you're a one-month high. it has been caught in the the safe haven has a lot to do with what if trump becomes president? hedge funds have been using gold as a hedge in the short term. and a jet -- hsbc saying by gold regardless of who becomes president. up ahead, we'll look at how china's push into the property sectors is paying off. and we will look at what impact a trump could have on gold and the markets around the world. his bloomberg. ♪
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betty: we are counting down to asia upon first major market this morning. trading in sydney underway. markets of just a touch higher despite concerns australia may lose its aaa rating. this is daybreak asia. more on that story in a moment. thene: a quick check on latest business flash -- german prosecutor said to be investigating the chairman of volkswagen over the emissions scandal. the second board member to be investigated over alleged market manipulation. relates to inquiry the time when he was the chief financial officer. ae automaker is facing potential $15 billion settlement in the u.s. over its so-called defeat devices. betty: the agricultural bank of 215a has been hit with a million dollar fine for hiding transactions. the new york banking regulator says deals by newly served
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clients tried to silence a compliance officer that raise the alarm. this comes after the bank was ordered to overhaul its money laundering protections. yvonne: cicada has raised its forecast. the airbag maker expecting net milliono rise to $194 compared to a net loss last year. they are currently shortlisting bidders for a sale. shares fell to a five-month low on friday over concern they may file for bankruptcy protection after losing one of their potential buyers. >> we believe only an out-of-court settlement can assure stable supplies. a bankruptcy will make it difficult for the business to continue. this is not just in japan, but globally. we have not announced anything about our u.s. unit, so i am not in a position to talk about that. only two more days until
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we find out who will be the next president of the united states. clintonl a trump or presidency mean for other countries around the world. my guest joins me now to talk about that. the chart and talk about volatility and the stress we see in the markets. we're talking what the implied correlation which does breach the brexit levels. we see things at a fever pitch. this latest development from the fbi clearing hillary of any charges? does this bring meaningful relief to the market? actually, i don't. i think what we have seen in the strength of the dollar is a bit of a misread in politics. i think this last-minute announcement, the number of people in the u.s. are reviewing it pretty skeptically. what i'm seeing on social media and personal comments is a lot
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of a skeptical read of it, so i don't think it is the relief any i don'think, and necessarily think it presents a clear runway for hillary clinton to go into the presidency. we still see polls tightening, suggesting it's not a done deal. we have had some economists speak about a trump presidency. could it take us back to the days of the great depression or are these concerns over done? guest: i think they are way over done. we are expected to have between now and january 5. a trump presidency, because of the uncertainty, would create a higher amplitude and that volatility, but over the medium-term, that would subside a bit. would happen is when he announces his cabinet and his
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department heads, i think there around how clarity people can position portfolios and how businesses can position themselves. there are a number of impact on asia. the china relationship becomes a different. you saw the philippines and malaysia government swings over the past couple of weeks and with a clinton presidency, i think that trend continues because the much lauded and to asia has been really hollow. with trump comes a chance to recalibrate some of those relationships and they may not have the same form and may not i the same expectations, but think a number of asian countries are looking for a recalibration of their relationship with the u.s. and a different political regime brings that opportunity. earlier, you were seeing
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some video, to show you how high-stakes this election has been, we were showing you video from a rally in reno what he was rushed off the stage when it seemed like someone was coming to rush him at the podium and someone allegedly shouted gun in the audience. i want to explain that video to our viewers who had not been up dated on that. but you mention the recalibration, so let's get more specific stop what are you speaking of when you say a recalibration if we were to see a president trump? present amay requirement for japan to amend its constitution and provide more defense and military activity. tomay require china reevaluate its position in different parts of the region. china, you say is prepared for clinton, not trump? yes.:
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and they are prepared to continue in the same manner which they have with the philippines, and malaysia and gradually taking over those traditional u.s. allies. same team clinton had when she was secretary of state would take over, largely the same team, with the asia policy, so there would be zero change from the status quo in asia and i think many asians role of the u.s. and asia and they need to see a redefinition. look where korea is. remittanceskorea's to china are in the chinese currency and they are very deeply entrenched into china's supply chain. aes korea want to come to point where it has to choose between the economics in china and politics in the u.s.?
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if we continue down the current path, korea have to -- korea may have to make that choice. quo is what the status political and economic relationships in asia mean and quite frankly, i don't think it's a good status quo for the u.s. and asia. asians are more educated, they are wealthier, and they have much more autonomy that may have had in the past stop the old u.s. model and view of asia really has to change. thank you so much for joining us. we will be talking much more about this in the next 48 hours. downgrade down under. why blackrock says australia could use it -- could lose its aaa rating as early as next month. we will go live to sydney for why that is. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: this is a daybreak asia. westpac ares of trading in ostrow you, up about 1.3% after the bank announced a full-year profit in line with estimates. allen in over to paul sydney. how do the numbers stack up? paul: very well. three much in line. the market was expecting 7.83, so what is $10 million between friends? headline is the return on equity, that is down 185 basis points. the ceo is saying low interest rates, higher regular three
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costs and increase capital requirements mean a 15% return on equity target is no longer realistic. that was set by his predecessor, gail kelly. 13% to 14% in the medium-term, there's a lot more in line with what is realistic, but the witht is responding well shares up 1.25% right now. the government is going to update the state of australia budget and lack rock says it could be the aaa credit rating. why is that? : this is the outlook the government puts out around december and is expected to show a blowout in the budget deficit which back in may was a shade over 37 billion australian dollars. they say that could be a catalyst for s&p to cut their aaa rating and the us trillion
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government had been serial under delivers and it could try the patience of the ratings agencies. yvonne: find out how the latest yvonne: find out how the latest jobs report could affect the yvonne: find out how the latest jobs report could affect the i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. but behind that door, i need a private connection for my business.
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in hong kong. we are starting with asia's spurs major market open. this is hours before hundreds of protesters ended and hour-long standoff with police. clear day shaking up in hong kong. it is 6:30 p.m. sunday. it is getting darker earlier here. we don't know yet where the markets are going to be said to
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open. futures trading to the open in halfhere and hour. we expect some quite sessions before the elections on tuesday. yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. you're watching "daybreak asia." >> a boost for hillary clinton today days before the election. the fbi is sticking to its conclusion that her handling of e-mails as secretary of state -- secretary of state was not a crime. they reviewed the batch of e-mails, but found nothing to conclusionbureau's that clinton did not commit a crime. faced offf people against officers against china's liaison in the territory. peopleers say 13,000 participated in a peaceful march against the government.
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protesters in india's capital have rallied against the choking air pollution. the particles have soared to 90 times the recommended safety levels. untils are closed thursday with bands on construction work. diesel generators cannot be used except by hospitals. this is the worst smog in 17 years. strange" made 185 billion dollars for disney. it also helped push disney to more than 7 billion dollars in sales. the second studio to cross that mark since universal did it. dayal news 24 hours a powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yvonne: let's look at how the
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markets are shaping up. changingtatement is things for us. in a lot of ways it reset relations between investors and the risk appetite. it gives an added boost early this monday. we're seeing money move out of havens like gold. we are down from the last trade on friday. take a look at how we are doing. opened at the top of the hour. a big jump in new zealand. the biggest in three months. australia and in tokyo, we're going to get a nice pop. that is some of the features on u.s. and marx. benchmarks.
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i'm just doing my math here. we're looking clearly above 17,000 here on the nikkei 225. we did see a fairly steep drop last week. it seems to be more risk appetite at the moment. yvonne: how is that fbi letter playing out on the currency markets? david: similar to what we saw for gold. shift out of havens. above 104. it is still pretty tight when you look at other majors like the aussie. he felt the pound coming off of a steep gain. i have to keep going back to that gold and mexican peso and the japanese yen. a pretty good start to this
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week. yvonne: attempts to rein in property prices seems to be gaining traction. our correspondent has been looking into this for us. it looks like this is paying off for china, we're seeing a bit of a cooling? this is coming from official data for the month of october, which shows, for example, in cities like beijing that sales volumes fell 14.1% year on year. theyu look at shanghai, were down 18% year on year. transactions in major cities fell 60%. prices in the first tier cities have risen on an average of 30% year to date. cities trying to increase the down payments that you have to put down on properties and
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restricting the sales of properties and some of the cities. getas governments try to these cooling prices, we knowledge that the real estate sector props of the economy here. morgan stanley saying this could reduce the gdp anywhere between 0.6% and 1%, depending on how aggressive these curves are going to be. for now, the government is going for this goldilocks mix. they are concerned about financial stability. of see a gradual aging down these commodity prices and top-tier cities in china. yvonne: we've seen hong kong raise stamp studio property. how much of a role are these mainland buyers pushing up prices in the city? hong kong has been a favored
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destination for mainland buyers as they look to hedge their bets against the beginning you want -- yuan. hong kong hasofficials in hongs struggled to put a cap on prices because mainland buyers keep coming in. phil's clients are expected to contract, some say by as much as and, of course, some say prices could fall by 3%, 5%, and 8%. they could have an impact on the movements of cash from the mainland as well and that is something that beijing is going to be paying attention to. we know that executive leung chun-ying is going to be under pressure to get this right in hong kong as well. seen the shares falling on the back of this news already. an impact on the shares, but also the political future of hong kong's chief executive. back in the u.s., the
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october jobs report out friday has all but sealed the deal for a rate hike in december. as long as the election doesn't throw everybody through the loop. that is the consensus. what you make of the jobs report? was it goldilocks? payrollsstart with because that is the number we always watch. provisions may be number look better. let's look at our chart. 73,000recast was for 1 jobs and that came in at 161 ,000. jobs in october than september. the fed is watching the october unemployment rate. it fell from 5% to 4.9%.
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bloomberg television was told the numbers are strong enough for the fed to start raising rates. where we at the point should remove some amount of accommodation. the context is in .f a very gradual, shallow path much more gradual than we have experienced. >> of course the market is betting 76% odds for rate hikes in december. bloomberg intelligence says the october jobs report makes the rate hike not only feasible and appropriate. yvonne: we've seen these kinds of numbers before. why is the consensus getting stronger? >> it is all about wages and paychecks. bloomberg intelligence point out evidence of higher rages --
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higher wages. they are showing the fastest rise in seven years. let's jump into the bloomberg again. average hourly earnings times the number of hours worked. it is basically what is in your paycheck. it never has been moving higher. he says the fed's rate to move. employment report shows, absent a major shock to the market, the domestic indicator or the fed suggests they should hike in december. yvonne: a pretty big if. a story over the weekend pointing out that the december rate hike odds with fall dramatically if donald trump were to win and throw the market into turmoil.
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thank you. the u.s.days until election. we take a look at the market expectations head of voting day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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this is "daybreak asia," and i'm yvonne man in hong kong. betty: and i'm betty in new york. samsung is hoping artificial intelligence may help make a strong comeback after the global fiasco of its galaxy note 7 lineup. something next year that is very different from apple and google. lanka has gained
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more than a billion dollars in equity funds from china. it is expected to draw more foreign investment into the country. bloomberg was told it will help the country cut it debt it'ss-2020 -- it will cut debt levels by 2020. >> depending on the u.s. election, if the fed hikes rates, bill the money moving not only out of sri lanka, but out of the stock exchange. we are looking at direct foreign investment. yvonne: he says 2016 could be a record year for global downturn. told bloomberg he is seeing double-digit growth in every market. that coincides with a 15 month
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decline in exports for the wider industry. hong kong and saudi arabia suffering some of the worst glut in a long time. haveelection anxieties left markets wondering which candidate will be best for their portfolios. inocencio has a summary of what they are saying. not lining their pockets in a bad way, but making money for them. let's start with asset performance from october 28. the new e-mails were discovered to be duplicates. latin american stocks are down by about 6% during that timeframe. -- if you look at this on the flipside. safe havens performed on the other side.
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for example, the japanese yen, gold, and silver up by 5% in the next week -- in the past week and a half percent. since october 28th, it was more than 4%. but it is comeback. rated it with their own ethics forecasts as well. if clinton wins, jpmorgan says the peso will strengthen. for asian currency, the bank of mitsubishi will say -- say it will rally by about 2%. jpmorgan office says the yen could strengthen 3% against the dollar. that he take it to the ¥100 level. -- that could take it to the ¥100 level. yvonne: what about the u.s.
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sectors. some favor clinton and some favor trump. blackrockrding to investment institute, there are correlations. clinton here is in orange. donald trump is in blue. consumer durables and transport capital, if clinton wins, the sectors with in a fit. consumer durables are appliances that last more than three years. clinton is saying she is going to invoke -- in on this infrastructure plan of about $275 billion. it has empowered drugmakers as well. about theps and downs
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candidate who could take the white house on november 8. is the epning us now co worldwide senior counselor. i don't know if you get into that chart, but i can't help but seeing, there seems to be more positive sectors than negative ones it clinton were to be elected. would you agree with that? sentiment the general . how long-term that is, i would leave it to experts to say. the 3-wood shakeup markets in asia and everywhere around the world. betty: we were talking to a guest earlier he said the shakeup is not that bad in terms of a recalibration in relations with some countries in asia. i guess so.
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there are other factors involved , such as, what happens to u.s. policy in asia and other indications revolving around the t to asia and the tpp . betty: what are you expecting? if clinton wins, what happens? wins, what happens? wins, it is difficult to say because he hasn't been clear. in office, you never know. win will when -- help people settle down, especially in terms of asia. in terms of actual policy, we still have issues. no matter who wins, i think the
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pivot to asia is in trouble. the allies in the united states are not as confident because of the rhetoric that has been going on in the past few weeks and months. thehe same time, tpp, transpacific partnership, which is essential to the non-and places like japan, it would be in trouble. vietnam and to places like japan. it will be in trouble. betty: you must've thought of some scenarios. no country would be prepared for a president trump. and think they probably are i think most countries are going to want to sit down with trump wins and finde
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out what is going on very quickly. are the alliances with japan and korea in trouble? i don't think so, but we have to nail that down. they have to talk about trade and how you look at trade barriers and so on. betty: we're going to continue the conversation later. we are going to ask you more in the next segment. impact on asia, ending a trade deal, we will look at the implications. this is bloomberg. ♪
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some breakinge news out of japan right now. the meetingtes from
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for the september policy. this is the time they target their yield to about 0%. saying members need to boost expectations to 2%. the boj was one of the first central banks to formally boost inflation past 2%. the has been dominating market in the early sessions has been the u.s. election. with japan opening just a few nikkei from now, the closed on a brutal friday, but look what is happening with the yen. 104.28. the dollar soaring as well as the mexican peso. that is after the fbi statement clearing hillary clinton of any charges about her e-mails.
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earlier our guest was saying this could be a short-lived relief rally. let's bring back the chairman of the ceo forum for asia. they are not going to be in favor of this whoever becomes president. has this deal collapsed? >> i don't know if it has collapsed, but it seems to be on life support. congress,embers of and we heard this from a group kong, they hong don't feel like they have political cover. many constituents feel like the economy is not coming along well for them and their wages are not going up. they blame someone else. that might be trade agreement or too much dependence on china or other countries. that makes it very difficult to
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get through politically. yvonne: we were talking about how the calibration could affect japan and asian nations. china couldn't bear the brunt of -- china couldmp bear the brunt of the risk if trump becomes president. >> the chinese are pretty pragmatic and i expect the trump administration will be more pragmatic. no one is certain about that because there is not much of a trump record. but the chinese have to plan for contingencies. on the other side, they had done well in terms of u.s. allies in asia. the tpp seems to be in trouble.
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these are positives for china. the person who is the next president is going to have to deal with a potential china shop. the weakening yen and the weakening gdp, who is more conditioned to handle that better? >> it seems that hillary clinton is at this point because her advisers, you can argue they were not always right, but they have experience in many of these areas, as diplomatically and economically. at the same time, mr. trump's advisers don't seem to have the same kind of background. they, again, don't have much experience. there's not much to judge them. yvonne: great to hear your perspective. plenty more to come here. have the first major market open just minutes away. this fbi statement could be
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shaking things up at the open. betty: as we just saw that headline cross with the mexican peso on track for its
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♪ futures gain with the mexican peso, while havens fall. reaffirms that hillary clinton's e-mail use was not a crime. as policend arrests move on protesters in hong kong. arrested as big rallies demand the korean president step down. market volatility it's a record.
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we will highlight what to watch this week on wall street. a lot going on. >> i am yvonne man. >> i am betty liu. other way to cut it, it will be historic on tuesday evening. this is an election we have never seen before. that is why you have seen the markets jittery ahead of this. right now, equities futures have just come online, pointing to a higher open on monday. we have a whole session ahead of us. jobsoks as if the october report on friday created a bullish sentiment in the market. thet could be snapping longest losing streak we have seen in decades. .t is a relief rally
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let's go to david. david: happy monday. is a clear unwinding of that risk all trade we saw on friday. through theseu asset classes and give you a better picture of what is happening. a very good start for equities in the asia-pacific. out you look at this moving from safe haven assets, the japanese yen. worst look at the performers and australia, precious metals miners getting sold off substantially. at where we are as far as bond yields are concerned. get an initial indication the 10 saw a spike of in year bond yields, about three basis points. above 1.80 year, back
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percent. currency markets doing this. aussie dollar lower. a tight range for most majors at the moment. i come back a at little here. valor-yen, big spike up above 104. dollar-yen, big spike up above 104. quite a move of here. let's look at the mexican peso. there we go. popfor its biggest one-day since february. 18.63 buys you a dollar now. fbirly that letter from the , clearing the way, if you will, for markets to take more risk this monday.
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, with the elections, expect more jitters. would have thought we would be looking at the mexican eso as a barometer of the u.s. elections. let's get the latest with james comey reaffirming no crime has taken place. we have been tracking these developments. is this going to make a difference? >> it could make some difference. when the first letter came out and james comey said they were looking at more e-mails, hillary clinton started to lose altitude. of trump,us six ahead and after that, down to plus two or plus three. she lost altitude very quickly. consolidation among trump supporters. she will not get those back.
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some of the rest of that are still available for her to try and recoup. >> there are reports out today where it showed there seems to be record turnout in some of polledlaces that are early or voting early. if you see record turnout, is that good for clinton? >> not necessarily. some of the states you are referring to, particularly nevada and florida, record turnout among democrats or a diverse electorate, which is good for democrats, especially in nevada. of latinosng a lot voting early, a good sign for the clinton campaign. despite the polls, there are a lot of people on the ground who
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say it could be a blowout in the state. are youspecific states watching closest on election night been? >> some of those states i mentioned before. on a daily andg hourly basis, but i will be watching pennsylvania, florida, and nevada. i will be watching north carolina somewhat. these are tight states where we have some interesting indicators in recent polls and in the early votes. if hillary clinton can put those away quickly, it may go a long way to making her president on wednesday morning. if she can't, i think we are in for a long night. >> thank you. 48 hours before the election. now let's get to first word news with tom mackenzie. tom: prime minister theresa may won'tard brexit timetable
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be altered by last week's ruling. the decision has worsened relations in britain. theresa may says the government has a strong case to appeal the ruling that parliament must approve brexit negotiations. she called on opponents to accept the results of the referendum. >> what we have to remember and what mps have to remember is that we had a vote on june 23, the majority of the british people voted to leave the european union. the government is now getting on with that. theresa may is in new delhi on monday to lay the groundwork for a post-brakes and trade deal. she was joined by over 30 is this leaders. the u.k. can't open formal training go she is in's and tell it has started proceedings to leave the eu, but sources say that theresa may will use the talk to explore what a future relationship might look like. thatrce has told bloomberg
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an ousted chairman had proposed doubling dividends to shareholders by 2020. they asked the board three times to boost the payout ratio. a spokesman says the information does not provide a complete picture. two former ace for the south korean president have been arrested as protesters called for her to resign over and influence peddling scandal. is accused of leaking documents to president parks friend. the other is accused of pressuring businesses to donate to foundations. park is yet to be questioned by investigators. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. china could decide on an interpretation of hong kong's
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law as early as today. sawnight demonstrations police use pepper spray against protesters. we have been following developments. interestinght was on the difference between what occupy hong kong was to this was that what has been created is a more radical type of movement. rosalind: that is true. we have seen younger people getting more involved in local politics, a merging out of what happened two years ago. this has partly sparked what we saw happen overnight. in the western part of hong kong , we saw police in right gear using pepper spray on some protesters to stop them trying to breach police lines. ,ome protesters wore facemasks carrying umbrellas, some of them yellow, which came to symbolize
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the pro-democracy protests of 2014. about 4000 people marched to the office. police say that four people were arrested. followedternoon, it what organizers said was a largely peaceful protest where there were 13,000 people. still, one of the largest demonstrations since those occupy hong kong protests in protestershen some split off and went to the office where we saw the overnight clashes. aboutt more do we know this move by beijing to interpret the law and hong kong? rosalind: china's national people's congress standing committee is discussing this issue. issue an interpretation of hong kong's basic laws earlier today.
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what it is looking at is this hong kong basic law bit declares that hong kong is an inalienable part of china. must uphold the basic law and declare allegiance. this relates to these two young earlier. mentioned were oaths to office voided. oath,ried to retake the creating chaotic scenes. statement that was released after discussions i the standing committee on saturday. itjing legislators believe is unnecessary to interpret law 104.
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there seems to be some indication that some interpretation is in the pipeline. this would only be the second time that china has unilaterally 1997,d local law since but hong kong is meant to be under this one country, two for 50 years, and people are increasingly concerned about beijing's reach into hong kong law. they believe it could lead to unrest and undermine the city's laws as well. should being days, it and just think to watch in terms of what happens politically. >> thank you so much. dousing the flames, china's move to curb its red-hot property markets appears to be working. the details from beijing a little bit later. >> up next, more on the fbi's
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november surprise. hillary clinton is again cleared of e-mail wrongdoing. this is bloomberg. ♪
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.> this is "daybreak asia" i am yvonne man. >> i am betty liu. a quick check of the business flash headlines. a up after it raised its full-year profit forecast on improved performance in the u.s. and asia. net income is expected to rise to $194 million. a five-monthd to low on friday over concerns that it may file for bankruptcy protection after losing one of its potential burs. >> we believe that only an out-of-court settlement can ensure a stable supply of our
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products, while bankruptcy will make it difficult for the business to continue. i am not in a position to talk about our u.s. unit. chinaicultural bank of hit with a $250 million fine in the u.s. for hiding transactions. banking regulators say the lender of secure deals by middle eastern, russian, and chinese clients. a compliance officer raise the alarm. it comes to bring months after it was order to overhaul its money laundering protections. china may let wall street banks run their own units. u.s. firms have long had a partner with chinese companies, but officials are reportedly considering changing the rule as part of talks on a new trade and investment framework with the u.s.. the journal says any agreement would need to be ratified by the
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u.s. senate. wall street's fear gauge, the vix, rose for a record ninth straight day on friday. the question is whether the volatility will continue our rise further after the elections joi. joining us now is su keenan. >> will it be 10 days as the monday session opens? anxiety over the election is unparalleled. check out the bloomberg and look at this chart. what you have here is the upsure of market turmoil, 73% over the past nine days. posted the longest slide since 1980. meanwhile, earnings continues in the days ahead. disney, toshiba,
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deutsche telekom, the market continuing to focus on these earnings for clues on the health of the economy. hsbc, at the chart of lender in the red so far, europe's largest lender, and analysts say the focus will be on revenue. wasriday, the bank said it in the search for a new group treasurer. plenty of earnings to look out for. about economic data? >> the biggest barometer will probably come on tuesday when we find out who will be the president for the next four years. aside from that, there will be a report later in the week on consumer sentiment. are expecting barely any improvement on that front, and that is significant to the health of the u.s. economy.
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there is a big focus on the direction of oil. the wild ride likely continues on monday. it has been down 11% in the past six sessions. lot of traders not seeing any cap for an opec agreement to cut output. near a one-month high. hedging on concerns about the election. it is all about the elections. thank you. , james more about that comey does it again. last week, an october surprise. now, a november surprise. signal and unwind in the market, a relief rally? >> it will be a short-term relief rally. it might even fade in the next newson, but clearly the not the markets last week, but
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the markets were looking for an excuse to take some profit. that was the reason used. it will be volatile until we know who the president is. >> you are saying we could be returning back to a post-november eighth. something hillary clinton could be risky for assets. how easy it playing out in the region? >> if clinton gets in, markets will rally because of the relief , and also probably rally further because they sold off. if donald trump gets income there will be a selloff. i think it will hit the region relatively well. you have seen that recently. i expect the region, particular china, will hold up better than global markets. >> why is that? because it is less exposed to
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what's happening in the presidential election. why we are taking profits -- >> you're talking about tpp, trained -- >> you're talking about longer-term factors, which is not in the stock market. the stock market has not gone up because of tpp. ultimately, these things are not factored into earnings and growth and monetary policy. they are long-term theoretical economic plans, and the stock markets are much more short-term. why we are taking profits in china, the banks, and properties is because it has had a good run. we have talked about the discount between the a share and the h share. in the bigger stocks, was about 30% to 40%.
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that discount of a month ago had been narrowed to 50%, but the banks, property companies, which has been helped by money flowing into china, there was no discount. some stocks were at a premium, so it was natural to take profits. given that, you rightly point out that a lot of this will be more about the long-term and the markets will be reacting aret-term, but in the end we breathlessly talking about reactions in the markets when maybe six months from now, there will not be that much of a change? not sure that is the case. going into this event, we have had a good run since the brexit worries. markets have done well, bond yields have come down,
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currencies have been stable, and commodities have been stable, and equities have had a good run. there is not much juice left in either bonds or equities. things selloff, and that would change our investment philosophy. ultimately we have to see who gets in. what will change is that we are in a low growth environment and rates will go up in the u.s. at some point, but the world economies are not strong enough not to need central bank or physical health, so the search for yield will still be there. i think that is the most important point from an investment point of view. >> thank you for joining us. gaming out what happens in the markets after tuesday. black rock gives a gloomy warning on australia's credit
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rating ahead of the interim budget review. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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in westpac are of over 2.5% in early trade after the bank announced full-year profit in line with estimates. let's get over to paul allen. tell us more about the numbers and how they stack up. paul: the number that really matters is the $7.82 billion cash profits, so that did me estimates. it is the same as last year, although in a tougher the real headline out of westpac is they are walking away from this return on equity target. ceo saying that 15% set by his predecessor is no longer realistic. $1.84, andividend
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the market responding well. westpac shares of 2.5% right now. >> we are awaiting for the update on australia's budget soon. does not seem optimistic about it. not terribly. typically, the budget deficits expand. another bad result could probably s&p to cut their rating. month.arly as next thank you. the south korean president under pressure to step down after authorities rest two of her former aides. the latest on that influence peddling scandal coming up. we continue to watch how things in going with a relief rally the asia-pacific region after
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the fbi statement clearing hillary clinton of any wrongdoing in the handling of her e-mails. we certainly see risky assets back on the table, more risk appetite. more to come here. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ are now just a half an hour away from the open of trading. a cloudy picture out there. yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. sunny evening in the city. let's get the news with paul allen. paul? paul: the peso has soared since february after the fbi revealed that the secretary of state was not guilty of a crime. been a currency has
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delete for the campaign. the present timetable will not be altered by last week's constitutional ruling. conservative newspapers are blasting high court judges. that parliament must approve exit -- brexit negotiations. executives are seeing prices falling between 5% and 8% in the coming months. government raised stamps. global news, powered by more , i'm paulournalists allen, this is bloomberg. must go to date in less for
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more. -- let's go to dave ingles for more. taiwan, you have a picture of green here as well. we have been talking about it all morning. it has been quite a substantial drop when it comes to equities. it is a bit of an unwinding if you will. we are waiting for that window. there is a weaker japanese yen. the 225 stocks are on the way up. new zealand is having its best day. looking at australia, 9/10 of 1%, most stocks are on the way up there. decliners, aners, little change here.
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seeing,the rally we are the drop in gold and silver are taking their toll. through each to go one but these are gold and across the screen there. but have a look at what we are doing. the u.s. yield is 1.28% we are coming off of it there. japan, that will be accurate. 2.34%, 1.5% better than last friday. guys? >> let's talk about something else. i will take a break from the election talk. oil. there is news out of algeria. based onis some hope these local reports. there is some hope that we could see a deal. it is unclear, there are no
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willls as to what the cuts be. have a look at the oil. i will explain that in a moment. oil, we are doing this at the moment. they are coming in at 10%. member will be committing a reduction based on current output levels. that is a sliver of solace that we may get a deal there. betty? glass -- david ingles there. here is news from china. china correspondent tom mackenzie is having a look into this for us. give us the details on this
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latest news. tom: this is data that has come through for the month of october. 41% year overfell year. quite a significant drop if you look at shanghai. they were down 8%. is highert of this prices, prices rising around 30% year to date. as a consequence of that, a have been puts into place by policymakers to ease back the prices. by raising the down payment, you have to put on a property. to government is trying strike a difficult balance here. they are trying to support economic growth. coulday that these curbs reduce the gdp anywhere between
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6% and 1% next year. it depends on how aggressive these future kurds are -- curbs are. they are trying to strike this goldilocks balance. also, they are looking for investment from developers as well. betty: we have seen the hong kong raising stamps here. how much of a role do mainland buyers have here in the city? am: they may have had significant role. they have been piling in in the last few years. when hongy 2012 was kong struggled to put a cap on prices. as you say, raising the stamp to 15% with some watchers seeing volumes reducing by up to 70%
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and prices falling 5% or 8%, that is likely to put a damper on those flows from the mainland. isknow that hong kong incredibly unaffordable. the most unaffordable city when it comes to property prices. they are concerned about social stability. this is likely to be one measure by which beijing gauges the call --e attempts to curb these prices. shows ahis chart that ball up and shares from hong kong developers. properties are feeling the pain already. some developers have more pain ahead as well. betty: we were just talking to sean taylor.
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tom mackenzie, thank you for joining us live from aging. now we are going to talk about president park geun-hye as she fights to stay in power. who willtalking about replace her. we will talk about what can save her job. this is the political scandal that keeps on giving. here?y be able to hang on >> potentially, yes. a lot of people want her to leave. out,0 people came organizers counted 2000 -- 200,000 people. what they are not clear on is who should replace her. that might buy her some more time in the scandal. betty: we have heard calls for her resignation. a have been talks of her impeachment as well. point isation at this
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a very fluid situation. it is changing all the time. many experts don't see resignation as on the table for her. she loses immunity if she resigns. >> she has an approval rating of 5%. >> she can buy some time by staying in power. impeachment is a whole other process that will take some time with a court ruling as well. that will take months to happen. if she is impeached, who might replace her in the early election? two that seem to be in front of the polls. is one of those people. he has until the end of the year. interested in coming back to run in the election.
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he is not part of any party yet. it is not clear which party he will join. the other main candidate is the runner up to park in the previous election. he is the leader of the biggest opposition party. betty: thank you dan. that is what happened in the political scene and south korea. what about in the u.s.? both candidates claim friday's job support as a win for their vision of this country. kathy hayes is here. hillary clinton says that the economy is accelerating. : there are a lot of economists and investors that a gray with her. let's hear hillary clinton explain why the job report is good in her words. hillary clinton: we just got a job report last friday.
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it created 165,000 jobs. that is 73 straight months of job growth. our economy is poised to really take off and thrive. they: it is true that october payrolls were up 161,000. months, theious september number went up to 191,000 from 156,000. this is a cool chart. -- followingllin along, we are looking at averages. payroll, line is for the orange line is for the u.s. gdp. you can see that they broadly track each other. they are up over 200,000. the gdp average is down below 1.5%
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if the pattern holds true, that pattern could hold up to the white line. they are saying that maybe to say is white -- right that. the jobs report may signal a rate hike in december. it looks like it may be appropriate. donald trump called this jobs report a disaster. what is he looking at? >> let's listen to white donald trump says that the -- listen to why donald trump says that the jobs report is terrible. >> it increased by 425,000 people. that is what you see the phony numbers about 5% unemployed. people have stopped looking because they can't get a job. these numbers are an absolute disaster.
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>> one of the things that is going on here, if you want to see what donald trump is alluding to. two employment rates. unemployment rates are stabilizing. that white line, that is you three -- u-3. it fell to 4.9%. that is the broadest measure of job growth. nearly 10% of people in this country who want to work can't. this whole question of labor markets comes up. there is some justification in the charge that donald trump is bringing up. >> what about wages? they are rising at the fastest pace since 2009 kathy. kathy: it has to do with super
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misery workers. the btv is 4800. the blue line is all employees. it is up to 2.8%. if you take at supervisors, the worker bees, their average hourly earnings actually fell back from 2.5 to 2.4. you have two kinds of numbers and two kinds of conclusions. it is interesting how there are lots of different pieces of this. hillary clinton and donald trump are obviously seeing different things. betty: how this will possibly work for the fed. much coming up is a wild ride as the race for the white house comes down to the wire.
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we'll tell you what to watch on the markets. that is coming up next. we are looking at live pictures where donald trump is speaking to a crowd in michigan in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ .etty: this is daybreak asia i am yvonne man in hong kong. betty: and i and that demand, in new york. york.m betty mann in new plenty of analysts have been putting out their own outlooks. has compiled all of these. y: let's start off with asset performance from 2008. we know what has been happening
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with hillary clinton's emails. 20, you can see that risk assets have performed worse. they are only down about 6% in the past week and a half or so. look on the flip side of this. safe haven assets have been performing better. hillary clinton's chances have fallen and they have affected it. let's keep diving into the peso as well. we know how that relates to clinton's chances in the white house. since november 3, this has come almost three percent or so. it has continued to climb today. there is some a new optimism for clinton. if clinton wins, jpmorgan says that the peso which rank to 18.25 per dollar.
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it is at 18.7 right now. if trump wins, it would weaken 23 per dollar. money, jpmorgan says the yen could strengthen 3% against the dollar. betty: a lot of volatility. sectors, some favor a clinton win, some favor a trump when. -- win. is that correct? positivere is correlation to the sectors. orange represents hillary clinton, blue represents donald trump. then consumers, durables here, as well as capital goods and consumer services and autos can see this.
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hillary clinton has tied into this infrastructure plan. there is $275 billion there. big banks could get a bump. morgan stanley says that a clinton win would be the toughest election went for a bank. is all abouton stopping price gouging in big pharma. donald trump is all about importing prescription drugs. that could hurt economies. impactings could be democrats or republicans. betty: remy, thank you. this is a signature trade agreement. these may be heading to the scrapheap. how would these presidential candidates engage asia?
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>> on all sides of the campaign, trade has been a hot topic. the candidates have talked tough. hillary clinton: i will stop any trade deal that kills jobs or holds down wages, including the transpacific partnership. donald trump: we are going to stand up to china and keep america out of it. >> some dismiss that as popular rhetoric. america's rise among top trading partners. this is the big thing that america is doing in the asia-pacific. views onndidate's trade very greatly. if trump wins, asia may face the biggest threat after mexico. he is bound to label china a currency manipulator from day one.
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>> it would be very damaging if donald trump one. -- won. >> about a third of these will come from the u.s.. on the other hand, a clinton pushy -- presidency could asian companies to the edge. showsn's voting record that she leans in favor of losing international trade. including deals with australia and singapore. trade between them has jumped 57% in the last 20 years. the future could be very different between the two residential candidates. bloomberg news. else's joining the japanese casino base. we are going live to tokyo after this.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ,etty: this is "daybreak asia" i'm betty in new york. yvonne: i am yvonne man and hong kong. >> we're looking for the ramifications for asia from a clinton or trump presidency.
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what next for this. we are speaking exclusively to japan. that is happening during the show as well. we are finally nearing a launch date for the hong kong connect. that will be over the next couple of hours. yvonne? betty? preparing toock is make a major investment in japan. the lawmakers are reconsidering the ban on casinos. is there. grace, what is hard rock saying? rock'si met with hard international ceo last week. keep it out. -- keep it out. there is more discussion
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happening in japan right now. they a saying that it is more likely that the casino launch in japan is likely to pass. this time, more than ever. hard rock is looking for partners. local partners and japan -- in japan to open a casino in this market. betty: this has been a very heated debate. what will happen if casinos are legalized? grace: this is a chance for casino operators. there is -- the japanese government is looking to pass this law to stimulate the economy. olympics ining the 2020. after that, they are saying that they need something to stimulate the economy and the markets.
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are looking forward to integrating results, including casinos to play that role. casino operators are all coming to japan in recent months. i attended a conference last week and there was an g.m. resorts, all of the big casino operators were flocking to japan. they have a big ambling appetite here. betty: grace wong at the hard rock. that is it for us. but the more still to come. we are counting down to several more markets opening in asia. ♪
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♪ i am rishaad salamat haidi. haidi: i am haidi lun. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪ rishaad: asian stocks climbing with the mexican peso while havens fall. reaffirms hillary clinton's e-mail usage was not a crime. haidi:


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