tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg November 7, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EST
♪ vonnie: we're going to take you from new york to london to washington and abu dhabi in the next hour. here is what we're watching. it is the final day before the u.s. funds for their next president. hillary clinton leads donald trump by three points nationally according to the bloomberg politics poll. mark: the election is driving the market move today. the dollar is higher against all major currencies. ae mexican peso viewed as proxy for a donald win. gold is falling back. vonnie: oil falling back. quotas.et waits for
the market waits for the abu dhabi convention. about 30 minutes into the trading day in the u.s., julie hyman is with us. julie: there is a lot of news. the election has loomed large over the u.s. stock market and any kind of risk proxy assets over the globe. now that the fbi is not going to do any sort of further action against hillary clinton regarding her e-mails while secretary of state, we are seeing a relief rally in the markets. this is on the heels of a nine day slide for the major averages. it was the largest since 1980. averages, wejor are seeing several measures of volatility coming down a little bit after spiking. we have been tracking one of those charts on the bloomberg. this looks at a couple of different types of volatility
averages. one of them is the vix. that has come back down. the bank of america merrill lynch treasury volatility is not trading today. we will see if that comes down. there is the index of gold volatility as well. all of those measures one would expect to come down today after those spikes. something else to keep in mind is how markets react in the wake of an election. this is not necessarily a predictor of future performance. this is something that we point out in a story today. moveu look at the average after election day, you have an average swing of 1.5%. the stock markets are moving in the same direction 12 months later less than half of the time. you can see that here as we see the blue line's and those 12 months following from from the
amber lines. getting back to today's session, broad-based rally. that is for the u.s. averages. as you can see all of the groups and the s&p 500 are going higher level by industrials and health care and energy. lastsl see if it tomorrow, wednesday, and for the following 12 months. mark: after 11 days where we failed to register an increase on the stoxx 600, finally every single industry group is gaining. after hillary clinton was exonerated as he said. lastly we fell by 3.4%. we fell to the lowest level in four months. this is the third game for the stoxx 600 since june 20. it is led by basic resources and
auto. look at hsbc today. rising as much as 5%. the biggest gain since april. a surprise jump in adjusted profit. regulatory decision boosted key capital rights. the chief executive making progress, combating this low growth environment, revenue rising faster than costs. thanhe first time in more a year in global banking markets, which houses the investment bank adjusted profit jumped $2.5 billion from 1.93 a year earlier. this climbed 46%. the biggest jump among european lenders. look at these lenders since brexit. most of their revenue comes from asia. chartered, most of their revenue comes from asia. they are up 11%. barclays is literally flat on
the period. we have safe haven assets declining today. silverllowing gold and lower today. news, goldhe fbi surging on concern that donald trump may capture the white house. llion prices have traded as a barometer of donald trump's of winning the contest even as investors track u.s. data for a possible fed rate hike in december. silver and gold also rising. today on shares rising speculation that donald trump is less likely to win the election, removing a perceived threat to the renewable energy industry.
reactiong is moving in to that clinton is. vonnie: thank you. let's check in with bloomberg's word news. eric: thank you. the final bloomberg politics poll before the election is out. it shows hillary clinton with a narrow lead. the nationwide survey has clinton ahead of donald trump 44-41 and a race involving third-party candidates. that is within the margin of error. the poll was taken friday through sunday. it also asked republicans and does lean that way what the party should do if they lose tomorrow. 64% said that they should become more moderate, tone down harsh rhetoric, or start from scratch and rename. new jersey governor chris christie says he does not know if the george washington bridge scandal cost him the vice
presidency. he was reportedly runner-up to be donald trump's vice presidential choice. allieschristie's former were convicted friday for their role in the bridge closure. iraqi officials say separate attacks in different suburbs of the capital have killed at least 14 people and wounded 43 others. the attacks took place in southern baghdad. it comes during a massive government pushed to drive isis from mosul. wherea may is in india she clashed with an indian leader over immigration. modhi wants the u.k. to take in more students who wants to study here. may supports the policy of requiring indian students to return home once their studies are finished. indian students studying in the u.k. to fall by 50%. a thirdrtega has won
term as president. initial returns show him what 71% of the vote. wasics say the election unfairly tilted against the opposition. his administration has been buoyed by low levels of violence. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am erik johnson. this is bloomberg. thank you. let's get to the global rally. stocks are starting off on a strong note after the fbi reported that they have finished handling hillary clinton's e-mails without a crime. boost demand for mavens. uncertainty remains over the u.s. election.
.ur next guest, matt miller if you are a traitor, do you take a position on this election outcome, whether it is top of the ticket or down ballot? matt: i would wait it out. when you get an opening like we had today, it is hard to trade. we had a couple of things going on. we do not know for sure that clinton is definitely going to win. we don't know about the down ballots in the house and senate, how that will play out. that will cause some problems with concerns about increased regulation if the democrats win. the idea is to just step aside. if you are a short-term trader, the market was getting overheated. the daily sentiment index, edges polll that -- which is a
of futures traders, they had gotten very bearish in recent days. to 10% on the s&p and less than 10% on the nasdaq. we have a lot of people on one side of the boat. you have donald trump wins, we were getting primed for a by the news reaction anyway. in the short term, we could see a bounce. in the longer term, we have other issues to worry about. vonnie: if we end up as a status quo, as in democrat president and republican senator, do we markets shifting back to central banks? will there be a reaction? matt: one of the things you have to worry about among the populace is your the situation where there has been a major election of change. even though hillary clinton was the nominee, she had a tough time against bernie sanders.
people want change. comes into ainton situation where she has a split government that she cannot get anything past, and the republican congress cannot do anything, people will see that nothing has changed. they want major change. that will be a big problem for the consumer. we are already seeing consumer stocks coming down quite a bit. consumer sentiment is dropping a little bit. i get a little bit worried about what impact this will have on the market if we get the status quo. mark: this is a chart. i don't think you can see it. we will tell you about it. one shows how markets fared day after both. and one year later. it is not an leading indicator how the market reacts one day after the vote. this is another chart that we made up. ignore that one right there. it shows you, don't assume what
happens the day after the vote is a leading indicator to further down the line. how best can we predict -- there we go. finally. lovely chart. how can we predict how the s&p looks in 12 months time if we get a status post situation? >> what you say is so true. so much of what happens first of all is emotional after the election. number two, sometimes the markets set up overly short or overly long on monday. so the initial reaction is not very good. question, as we move forward, what do we have? we have central banks around the world look like they will not be as accommodating as they have been in recent years. we see the fed looking to tighten and the ecb and boj not adding to their qe programs.
that is one leg of the stool that is concerning. the other thing we have seen in this low interest rate environment is that companies have not invested in their own businesses. it is odd. total debt is higher than it was in 2007. they are not using that money to invest in their own businesses. you have a situation where usually when you are coming out a recession, people start investing in their is this is in a major way. -- businesses in a major way. you get major next investment. when you don't get that, you don't have the foundation to build on as you go higher. that is a concern. mark: sorry, bonnie. -- vonnie. you like costco. it is a real bellwether for the retail sector and the economy as a whole.
why is this individual stock so important right now? basis, muchechnical like the whole industry had a great run since 2009, and now it has rolled back over, down almost 50%. if it follows this with a key lower low, it will show that the consumer is starting to pull back more than people had hoped or. that could be a negative impact on the u.s. economy. vonnie: all right. thank you. mark: coming up, more on hillary clinton versus donald trump as the bloomberg politics poll shows the very clinton leading nationally. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." there just one day to go before the u.s. election. hillary clinton has the edge over donald trump. she is ahead 44% to 41%. that is when third-party candidates are included. conducted friday evening through sunday afternoon before the fbi reiterated the clinton's handling of e-mails was not a crime. b,en, even iflead we only have to trust the polls. it is not a huge margin. she is just sort of outside of the lip of the kind of lead
that has sometimes been within the margin of error. she is working hard. she cannot take anything for granted. that is my opinion. vonnie: what does this mean today? if hillary clinton can win the west, is that her campaign strategy? they would love to see nevada. they have seen a lot of latino early voting turnout. they are focusing their efforts on pennsylvania, michigan, and florida. they have that same sort of within the margin of error lead, but they want to consolidate. vonnie: the donald trump campaign? >> they are going to the exact same states. it is one of those days where the planes are crossing on the tarmac. the circuits are going there.
-- surrogates are going there. everybody is making a play for them. mark: what about the mood? the polls show the sourness of the mood among the electorate. does that mean we will divide the nation after the outcome, whatever happens? and will there be general distrust about the president-elect? >> we saw probably in the polls that the majority of voters expect to see the investigations and scandals in congress over the next four years no matter who is president. that does not even begin to talk about the economic malaise that has been driving a lot of this election. you have people who are quite pleased with president obama in the last four years. that is something hillary clinton is hoping to capitalize on. mark: there is division within the republican party itself. you put it out there saying, what should the gop do after the election? what was the feedback?
>> a lot of the people who are republican or are leaning that way say they want the party to moderate. it is not 70% or 80%, but it is 60%. a lot of people said they would like to see a split off or a new name for the party. million votese 40 already. when we look at this election, what will have decided the election? will it be the hispanic vote or the women vote? >> i think both of those will be key. i think the hispanic vote will in particular the important. democrats and the public's have both been playing for this demographic and hoping to secure them for a generation. a candidate like donald trump and the way the demographics the, it seems like democrats have captured the mistimed. we will know when the exit polls
come out tomorrow. that could be one of the deciding factors. vonnie: it is a treat to have you in new york. i guess because the headquarters for both campaigns are here. tune in tomorrow for our special election coverage. it is after 5:00 p.m. eastern. from 7:00 p.m. eastern, join us for our election special posted by david gura. mark: we are looking at some of the big market movers in the early sesssion. this is bloomberg. ♪
news. to highshares of uber net worth clients. deutsche bank turned down the opportunity. tor turndown the opportunity release financial details about their business. shares thisother year. earthlink is a deal valued at $1.1 billion, including debt. they have over 1000 miles of fiber-optic cable across the u.s. more problems for volkswagen. germanbeen added to a investigation over and emissions scandal. vwmay face more trouble in the u.s. a german newspaper reporting
that american testers have found software to cheat air-quality tests in audi cars. that is your business flash. julie hyman is looking at early movers. -- oracle is rising along with technology broadly. it is gaining more access to cloud-based software services. the acquisition had been in doubt as executives were in a bidding war. they did when that approval with a $9 billion acquisition. netsuite has been acquired. oracle shares are up by 1.8%. had plungedchairs earlier in the year after founders surprising resignation. that is after the national bank of canada agreed to buy as much
as $1.3 billion in loans from lending club. this is even after the company posted second straight quarterly losses. berkshire hathaway reported earnings, third quarter robert on an operating business of 6.6%. that was a smaller increase than estimated. insurance and railroad profits were down. the company has a record amount of cash. it is $85 billion at their disposal. mark: thank you. 10:26 in new york. oil is rising ahead of that big election. we will hear from
let's check in on your first word news. erik johnson as more from london. erik: thank you. donald trump will keep up a breakneck campaign based through tomorrow. he travels through florida, north carolina, pennsylvania, and new hampshire. it clinton is going full force. she will be joined by her husband, president obama, and the first lady this evening. she will be campaigning and michigan, and north carolina. u.s.irst woman to serve as attorney general, janet reno, has died. she served under bill clinton. she was sharply criticized in her first year for ordering a deadly raid on a compound in waco, texas. she also got involved in other controversies, including when water and monica lindsay -- lewinsky.
she was 78. iraqi special forces are trying to clear islamic state forces from neighborhoods in mosul. because so many civilians are staying in their homes, they are iraqis cannot rely on airstrikes from the us-led coalition. prime minister benjamin netanyahu says israel will not attend a french conference and at resolving conflict with the palestinians. he has repeatedly called on the palestinian ambassador to return to talks. the investor has demanded a prisoner release that netanyahu has canceled. unprecedented steps to ease bad air-quality. as demonstrators protested, local government shutdown schools for three days and put a five day ban on construction and
demolition. those concerned in india could be at risk if the government cannot clean up the polluted air. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am erik johnson. this is bloomberg. vonnie: let's go to abigail doolittle as we check on the markets. we are looking at technology. abigail: we have the major averages in the u.s. surgeon. over the last few weeks it has been a different story. on friday, the vix had its first-ever nine-day spike higher. the s&p 500 dropped for nine days in a low. its longest losing streak since 1980. the question is are we bouncing higher, or are we seeing weakness? when we go into the bloomberg
and start off with currencies, the foundation for all asset classes, when we look at this function, this is the charge of the new zealand dollar against the yen. off.ring of risk on or you have the growth of the new zealand dollar versus the safety of the yen. we saw a recent and that the new zealand dollar went about its moving average. this suggests we are going to see some sort of near-term bounce higher. when we take a look at commodities. we look at the bloomberg commodity index, we're looking at the commodity index. on friday, we had a successful test of the 200 day moving average. that appears to be bullish. this is leading to the top of that range. with currency and commodity just
think risk on in the near head. equities, the best-known asset class. we take a look at the s&p 500. this is the s&p 500. on friday, the s&p 500 within a successful test of their 200 day moving average. we are seeing the index rising to the top of that range. longer-term, they are trading below year-to-date uptrends, adjusting we may have a near-term bounce, but jitters and downside may come or risk assets on related to the election. vonnie: thank you. turning to oil. crude is rallying ahead of the election. the national petroleum exhibition and conference in abu dhabi, discussing the future of the industry. -- poke to the ceo of outlook ofed their
the year ahead. [indiscernible] >> we have to try to optimize. being able to maintain production. we go ahead with our development. we will go with the country that low foroperating costs, us. -- capex for us. od in terms ofi go expenditure? what is good for you to meet those requirements? is $50 after what investors.ell to our our breakeven price for production is $77.
we made a big effort. of 3.4%.m our growth overall financial outlook for the company is $50. >> let's talk the marketplace. we going towards the opec market, could the oil rebounds this year? >> i think we are very close. the first six months of imbalance supply, about 1.7 million barrels per day. now we are under 100,000 barrels per day. we are getting closer. 2017 could be the year of rebalancing supply and demand. >> you are getting more efficient. you have a lower breakeven.
things are going. what is the message for investors today in terms of the dividend? how secure is the dividend in 2017? isn't that balanced between expenditure and outflow? >> [indiscernible] >> talk to me today though. confirm is $50 is ok. we're going through a better period. inething that can remain the next several years. our breakeven price is enough to develop and continue to invest and develop our core business. that is all i can say. >> we will take a positive message. those kind of numbers, we have
the opec meeting, what would a opec cut mean? can you get to 55 and sustain that level if they cut? 50 and 60 talk about and $65, we were talking about fundamentals. going without opec cuts. opec cuts are important for our financial investors that like to be -- they like to know that somebody is taking care of those markets. otherwise we are adjusting the end of our fundamentals. i think opec is a strategic role. that can give assurance to our investors. we have a floor. it is a floor for regulators. it is quite important that we find opec without --
bloomberg also spoke to bp chief executive, and asked him who the most important player was at the upcoming opec meeting? >> it certainly is not the ioc. iran will need to reach some sort of agreement. no special interest and where they're going with that. analyst,st world oil julian lee. ultimate deal among opec. three weeks away. >> i think they have to come up with something. analysts, ifou ask you ask investors, and the response you get is if they do not come up with something, then they have lost all credibility.
bearish sentiment returns. we are back at $40 a barrel and below. nobody wants that. even the saudi's don't want that. i think they are quite desperate or higher prices. there has been a subtle change of the rhetoric coming out of opec. saudi arabia from time to time sounds more amenable to a deal. and then they step back and say they will only do it if i ran freeze up production -- iran frees up production. and that is why we lost the last chance at a deal. vonnie: there is a rumor that saudi might even increase production if russia does not acquiesce. is this something that could be used as leverage? much leverage
otherwise. >> it could do. one has to ask the question of how much does saudi arabia want to deal, and how hard do they want to press for a deal? there is as global thought that saudi arabia is happy to go along with these negotiations as long as it gets a freezing of whichion from iran, would be a major step for iran, possibly one that is too big for it to take. i think saudi arabia itself is not going to make all the running in this field. yes, saudi arabia is the only country in opec that has significant spare production capacity that it can bring on quickly. therefore it is the only country that is in a position to say, if you don't agree, we will produce more.
it has not done that in the past. it is not a step that they would take lightly. crude trading at 45.63. thank you. mark: making a statement about last thursday's high court ruling that the government needs parliament approval before starting brexit. we will be monitoring the events. you can watch the entire speech and questioning on the bloomberg. place, provides another and the committee i think will be visiting my department tomorrow. ♪
vonnie: and i am vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." alan greenspan is a man who has seen a share of change in government over his career. he joined us this morning, and we asked him how the federal reserve can function in a political environment where the administrators are against the fed? andgreenspan: by statute history, the federal reserve is independent of the political system. the system has managed to function fairly effectively throughout a number of similar circumstances that we are going through today. i think what the board of governors and chairperson does at this particular stage as they have in all historically relevant periods is disregard that. chairman, i received
of -- an huge number of requests to lower interest rates. not a single one to raise them. takehat is clearly, if you what the politics are telling you, that is not the way to run the financial system. i think that you have to just disregard this. what is so interesting about where we are in the global populist movement is that this is not unique to the u.s., but we are seeing this in europe and the u.k. is this surprising you that we are having a conversation about the independent of central banks? dr. greenspan: i think it is somewhat troubling that the whole interest of what central banks do and what the economy is going to do has so fundamentally
that it is very hard to forecast what is going to happen, but i do know what the fed has to do. that is nothing. david: is there a danger in that? there seems to be a growing chasm between the elites in the economic and business world on one hand and the people who really feel disenfranchised. this is not just the united states. europe as well we are seeing this. at some point, the federal reserve needs political support. otherwise you will have curtailment of international trade and other factors that will impact the economy that the fed is trying to nurture. dr. greenspan: it is not the fed's job to put its position where we would like it to be. it is up to the political leaders of the country. it is not up to the fed to or theise its principles
central bank will disappear. if there is a concern, it is not the job of the federal reserve to change it. it is the job of the senior political figures, from the president on down to act accordingly. 18 and a half years at the fed, that is essentially what the issue is all about. i think it worked fairly well. alix: typically, if a current sitting chair is asked not to continue to serve, if donald trump is present, and if he does not ask janet yellen to serve another term, do you think she will stick it out to prove the point you are making? dr. greenspan: i think it is up to the individual. tost of all, i don't like discuss hypothetical issues when we will know what the facts are very shortly.
is thean tell you principles by which i think we and thosevern, for anmbiguously independent central bank which disregards the type of letters i used to get. in other words, if you took a how of the populace as to the central bank should function, everybody would be in favor of thing more money. we know what the end of the road is there. that is disaster. david: another important principle has been the benefits for everyone from globalization and free trade. inre has the failure been communicating those benefits to the people at the bottom of the food chain? dr. greenspan: that is basically our political system. it is not the job of the federal reserve to enunciate economic principles.
it is the job of the president, whocongress, and all those are specifically oriented towards finance to do it. that is not the job of the federal reserve. it is the job of the federal reserve to explain how markets work, to explain, for example, why free-trade is a value. it does not lobby for those particular plans, and should not. mark: alan greenspan on a break america's this morning. jonathan: -- vonnie: steve ballmer tells us tout his move from the board the desktop or. this is bloomberg. ♪
be the first. -- bought the clippers. >> it is completely different. comparing them may not be the most interesting thing to do. i love the game. i love seeing us go out there and win. there are aspects to the job as well. how do i properly interact with their coach, our staff, our players? what is my role? we have big decisions in front of us. where do we go in terms of changing the way sports is consumed, using digital techniques? virtual reality and live statistics in addition to let's go when some ballgames. hopes for theur new season? how can you beat the warriors this year? >> it is kind of like what we
say, anybody can beat anybody on any given night. the cavaliers and the warriors are still favored to get to the finals for the third year in a row. does the league have a competitiveness problem? >> i think we are the competitive, in any given year there are players who are difference makers. i think it is harder to win it all if you don't have at least one and probably two of those difference makers. >> how is the search for the new arena going? >> we are searching. the first question is, what is out there for available land? what would it look like to build the building. we have confidence that people find land and we can build at a good price. i am interested in building an arena. but before we are done, i'm sure we talk to the staples guy. i don't think it ever makes
sense to enter a renegotiation with a landlord unless you have an option. >> everybody is talking about over the top right now. get,would a clippers fan what would it cost, does it need to be more than just one team's content? >> the real power comes when you can start changing the viewing experience. can you change the camera angle, what would over time even be able with virtual reality ends up where -- and software watch the game around a player's perspective. i am exaggerating a little bit. what does all the -- of that look like? how do we get statistics and social and fantasy more into the game? we have the potential to do that with software and ott.
>> how do you see media playing in revenue? >> the traditional media business is under pressure. do i believe our content value will go down over time? no. the value of nba content will go up. it will take more digital expression around it. it will take a new business model to support it. i believe a lots in the value of what we have. there will be a disruption -- a disruptive process between here and there. mark: steve ballmer there. the european close is next. see housetops are faring today.
friday, i am cautious. a.l. mark barton. vonnie: it is daylight saving time -- what can you do? i am in new york. i am vonnie quinn. this is the "european close" on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: we will take you from new york to london to dublin and hong kong. here is what we are watching today. one day to go until the u.s. presidential elections as the candidates make the final push for the voters. we will discuss if the results mirror what happened with the brexit vote. surprisesbc reported a jump in profits. the ceos showed progress in his efforts to combat a low growth environment.