Skip to main content

tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  November 7, 2016 3:30pm-5:01pm EST

3:30 pm
leader ginsberg noted that stay law already forbids voter intimidation. the case is part of efforts by democrats to head off what they say is vigilanteism by the trump campaign and its backers. tomorrow the justice department will send more than 500 election monitors to 38 starts. that is 35% fewer monitors than to your years ago. federer poll watches has been curtailed pause of a 2015 supreme court ruling that gut add key provision of the voting rights acts. white house press secretaries says president obama continues to have confidence in f.b.i. director james comby and views im as a man of integrity and character. he sent a new comment about hillary clinton's e-mail than and saying the f.b.i.'s review is complete and stands by the recommendation that no charges be filed. russia is said ton on board
3:31 pm
with an opec agreement to limit crude oil production to balance the market. they say members are still committed to a deal reached in september to trim output. says cooperation from non-opec producers like russia will help bring the market back into balance. efficiency are scheduled to hold talks in vienna this month. negotiators are in makarova o- to implement the paris agreement. u.s. commitment to the accord could be affected by tuesday's presidential election. donald trump has said he cancel the deal if he wins, while hillary clinton supports the accord. 100 nations have officially pledged to honor it. a top priority for delegates now is how best to hold the countries accountable. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton ton, this is
3:32 pm
bloomberg. >> we are 30 minutes from the close of trading here in the u.s. live from bloomberg headquarterses in morning, i am . >> dollar jumping, and the gold and yen sell off. the f.b.i. said no new charges against hillary clinton. >> the question is what did you miss? a final bloomberg national poll says hillary clinton ahead of donald trump by three percentage points as both candidates hid to key states to make their la stella appeals. the financial markets showing global relief. last week's flight to safety comes to a halt after f.b.i. director james comey says his agency will not recommend charges against hillary clinton
3:33 pm
again. with less than 24 hours to election night, we playbook at all the scenarios for the economy, for trade for emerging markets in either a trump or clinton house in today's special election coverage on what did you miss. >> first we have to set the scene. julie hyman has the latest with less than 30 minutes to go before the mark close. >> i like not only the word that matt use used, but the tone in which he said it. relief. that is the way we are seeing markets express themselves today, traders and investors expressed themselves. we will see if it lasts after election day. coming on the heels of the nine-session losing streak, we are now seeing the biggest one-day gain, which was march 1, super tuesday. but still seeing increases. a broad-based rally here. so all of the groups in the s&p 500 are beginning. the imap on the bloomberg shows
3:34 pm
a lot of green. when i checked a you few moments ago, only about 20 stocks in the s&p 500 were trading later. financials leading gains as we see interest rates go higher, which has been a positive indicators for financials. even telecoms, which are doing the worst today on a relative basis are up .6%. i have always been watching voskuhl. if you are a bewell and it is an up day, you want to see a -- if you are a bull and it is an up day, you want to see the volumes. this is the volume tracking at the same time over the past 20 days, the averages pretty much in line, about 1% below the 20-day average volume. we have the biggest volume increases in utilities, health care and financials. some of those groups that are gaining most. individually some of the biggest movers here, a the big cap familiar names at the top of the big movers list.
3:35 pm
we have microsoft,, j.p. morgan along with the financials, and g.e. gaining with the industrials. as money is flowing back into stocks, back into these risk proxy assets, it flowing out of some of the, seeing inflows over the past nine sessions. gold for example is selling off today after having gained recently. you can see it is done almost 2%. the 10-year yield is higher. it is up five basis points and the dollar is gaining as people are selling the japanese yen, a safety trade. oil prices, which have fluctuated a little bit today, but now rising into strength at the end of the day here, up by about 2%. still below $45 a barrel. we did have an earthquake in oklahoma. there is speck ration -- speculation it may have affected surprise and
3:36 pm
production. thank you, julie hyman. >> what did you miss? more than 30 million votes have been cast across 38 starts with early voting, and hillary clinton and donald trump continuing to urge their supporters to vote. who is hitting the polls early, and what does that say about tomorrow tonight? let's talk about the bloomberg economics editor who has been looking at the issue. i swear this early voting it feels like it is looking at sprails where anyone can come up with any story they want to to explain why either donald trump or hillary clinton is doing better. who is the consensus? who has the edge? >> i think after looking at sfwrails, how -- at entrails? what is that? >> sort of meaningless. >> not meaning carnage. >> some of the far right groups have accused hillary clinton. remember when nobody filed their taxes electronically and
3:37 pm
it shot up? the same thing is happening with early voting. you send your ballot information you don't have to show up at the polls if you dope want. colorado is one of the states we have a lot of data on. so far colorado has had about -- well, 1.6 million votes. uble checking the latest figures. 2.6 million voted in 2017. well over half martin havlat voted. they break it down whether it is a registered voter. they don't tell you who is winning. you assume the democrats are voting for clinton, and the republicans are voting for trump. for the most part it looks good for hillary clinton. over the last 24 hours, the republicans took a bit of an advantage. they have 35.2% of the ballots
3:38 pm
ve gone to republicans, 34.% have gone to dream kratz. in nevada, almost 80% of the voters have cast ballots. a big lead for the democrats, 41% to 35%. that is an almost insmoundable an almost insurmountable lead for clinton. >> and that leaves out the people who have voted yet. we do know that elderly voters tend to come in at the last moment on election day, and more of them tend to vote republican. -- n a state like falla like flee florida where hillary clinton has a narrow lead in the votes so far. there is a lot yet to be
3:39 pm
determined. >> the important point that you us, this morning to all of we are unlikely to have a brexit style surprise in the u.s. we get all of this early voting, and you didn't have that there, and b, we can talk about exit polls as soon as tomorrow morning. so unlike in the u.k., where no would not can say anything until all votes were cast, it is unlikely we get a shock result here? >> right. this is not a yes or no vote. we look at the data from 2012, 2008 et cetera, and you can pars the voters on how they have voted in the past. this graph really tells you what happened. the polls weren't wrong. the polls at the very end were within the margin of error. choice for leave
3:40 pm
and remain. what happened is the bookies took bets, big amounts of money on remain. t more people voted for -- more people put money on it in smaller amounts. the media ran with the idea this was going to be a big remain victory. we don't have bookies here betting on our election. >> what do we know about how financial markets are getting ready for the election versus what the polls indicate? are financial markets lead the polls or are the polls leading the markets? >> it looks like the financial markets are adjusting to the polls. market moving higher today on relief that hillary clinton is more likely to win the election. my question is yes, we moved back up to basically where we were before. what happens after the election? have you price it had "inbusiness" we go back to trading on earnings, and maybe it is a tired market. do we go higher? hard to say.
3:41 pm
>> it is hard to say that just based on today's action along, why do you think that is? what is the main connection there? >> there are two things. one, they are fairly certain about what she is going to do because she has a detailed set of policy proposals. donald trump has thrown things against the wall, and very little of it makes coherent sense. in hillary clinton, you have a democrat in the white house. odds are that you are going to have a republican house. that is a recipe for gridlock. no big wild spending, no big tax increases or anything like that, and the markets like that. >> give us a sense of how mexico is preparing, if there is a surprise vehicle try here for donald trump? >> it was interesting. there was a policy panel sense
3:42 pm
of here there if trump gets elected. they gave an interview saying we have started making preparations for what we could do. he wouldn't say what. he met with the finance minister to talk about it. there was talk they could raise interest rates by as much as 1.5% to prop up the peso should it fall in the case of a trump victory. the u.s. connection is maybe if there is a liquidity problem, dollar shortage, there could be a swap line developed. they had discussed the situation. >> is it necessarily clear that a clinton administration would be positive for mexico and mexican assets. >> it doesn't look like there is going to be any immediate action on changing mexico trade agreement, which markets line. >> you are going to stick with us after the break. coming up, former offerman m.b.
3:43 pm
director, david stockman, will be our guest. he is going to explain why a recession is on its way regardless of who wins the race to the white house and talk bout his latest book, "trumped ." this is bloomberg.
3:44 pm
3:45 pm
>> i am matt miller. what did you miss? our next guest says no matter who wins tomorrow's election, neither donald trump nor hillary clinton would be able to stop a recession. david stockman is the former director of the u.s. office of management and budget and the author of a new book, "trumped, a nation on the brink of ruin and how to bring it back." we have our economics editor still with us here on set. it's unclear after reading that
3:46 pm
title whether or not you are going to cast your vote for donald trump. have you already voted? >> well, i voted in colorado early and often. i voted for trump because on the margin i think hillary will be a disaster beyond all the uncertainty you would get with trump. that is why my point today is that i am not mincing words. if we need any proof that there are only idiots and robo machines left in wall street, look at the market today. we are on the cusp on a break-down in governance. if trump happens to win because of a presidential election it's effect, and it is possible, there will be unmitigated disaster in washington. if hillary wins, the election recount will start the next day. i am not talking about arguing about nevada. the house will be controlled by
3:47 pm
republicans. there will be 10 committees holding investigation with the subpoena power. we haven't seen gotten to the beginning of what is coming out of the the f.b.i. and the justice department, and the weak pleeks, and the clinton foundation and the rest of it. government will be frozen for at least a year, if i can say that, and in that year there hand-off, fiscal which is what the markets won't oday, and it happen. there will not be a debt ceiling increase that we desperately need over the $20 trillion mark in march. there will be a huge political stand-off before. that i think it will spook the markets like never before, they are over valed and they will crash. >> so what you are saying is all of us are saying finally, the election is over, and wore day until the national nightmare comes to an end.
3:48 pm
the fundamental forces we are seeing in the break down in institutions, parties and norms of politics, we are just getting started with that? >> i would say the nightmare starts wednesday morning. i happened to be around long enough that i was there during watergate during 1973 and 1974. i remember when the acrimony reached a pitch. government shut down. then it didn't matter so much. china was in the midst of a famine, and mexico was in trouble. it is a totally different world today. >> although we learned a lesson from richard nixon, erase all tapes? >> but she didn't do that. today it is althere, including he 33,000 e-mails. they are all there, including
3:49 pm
the nasa spy in the sky which collects everything. we will have a crisis like we have never had before, and the market is ignoring all. that >> you said you voted for donald trump. some of us are old enough to go back that many years along with you. i remember a director of the office of management and budget who was famously taken to the woodshed if i can call that up correctly. >> talking about you. >> exactly. for saying that reagan no, ma'amics wasn't going -- reaganomics wasn't going to pay for sit evans. trump has proposed zero spending cuts, but massive tax cuts. if you want to talk about a disaster for the economy, wouldn't that be? >> it would be if it was going to pass, but it is not going to pass. trump has no policy at all. my argument is with the fed, and the one thing that trump
3:50 pm
has said is the fed has created a massive bubble. it is art fibble. it is one big fat ugly bubble, and it has got to change. we can't get interest rates at zero for 94 months. this is a great function that shows you a heat map across the u.s. if i change it to mortgage delinquencies and go back to quantitative easing in 2009, you can see that mortgage delinquencies have gone down across the nation. you can see that personal income has gone up in every state across the nation. what the fed has done, what the obama administration has done for us as far as the health our economy has been pretty wonderful? >> it has been nothing at all. that is correlation, not causation. when you have a great recession at the depth and violence we had, of course capitalism on its own is going to bounce back.
3:51 pm
when you have declining arenases that soar off the shots, the worst were carried out on their shields. this is the weakest recovery in history. we basically have no more -- >> better than most of our global peers. >> it doesn't matter. we have no more full-time jobs than we had in 2007 or 2000. the fed has actually caused the outcome to be worse. we have a massive bubble on wall street. we have a huge diversion of resources in the financial engineering. coompingses have spent $7 trillion buying back their stock, dividends, doing m&a deals that are going to fail. there hasn't been investment in real plant and productive equipment. so i would argue we are worse off rather than better. why would you want a 2%
3:52 pm
inflation target in a world where we can't compete with the rage levels we already have? i am saying don't be confused by correlation. the big fat elephant in the room is the fed. trump will go out the fed. that will cause chaos, but it is the chaos we need to purge this system of the massive inflation and false basis that exists today. >> i can't help but think of it in context. you are saying we are doing better than peers. this is a chart on my bloomberg. you can see the united states has covered nicely from lows of 2009. china has trended down. japan has recovered a bit here. germany is only country here with a surplus compared to g.d.p. >> there is a chart on my creen of full-time jobs in the u.s. the idea that we are at the levels of 2000 and 2006, we have surpassed them.
3:53 pm
>> if i may say, we created 22,000 full-time jobs per month since the peak in 2007. that compared to 120,000 per month in the previous cycle, 125 thousand per months in the 1990's. >> we had a collapse. >> 22,000 a month in an economy where it is growing 150 month, it hasn't grown at all. after 86 months of expansion, you would expect the deficit to go down. t was up last year, up by 35%, up by $86 billion, and we are heading back towards $1 trillion very quickly. you can't extrapolate indefinitely, and we are heading the wrong direction very fast. >> i can do this for hours. i could listen. i want to take mike mckee and
3:54 pm
david stockman down to the bar. >> that is andrew miller over there. herbert hoover's treasurer said liquidate reels and other things. >> we don't have time to go further. it has been fun. thank you mike mckee for sticking with us, and david stockman, former o.m.b. director. the author of trump, a nation on the brink of ruin. >> we know who he is voting for. >> i am not sure he voted in full faith. >> a reminder to turn in toe bloomberg for complete election coverage tomorrow night. david gura will be your host. this is bloomberg.
3:55 pm
3:56 pm
>> we are minutes to go before the close. stocks rallies after nine days of losses in the s&p 500. i am looking at safe havens. the russia safety is fading
3:57 pm
here. gold, sovereign bonds and the yen had rallied in the last 10 trading days. you can see that leg lower today. year to date, gold is still up 24%. this is bloomberg. . .
3:58 pm
3:59 pm
scarlet: we are moments away
4:00 pm
from the closing bell. "what'd you miss?" global commodities rallying. and gold retreated across the board. i'm scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. matt: and i'm matt miller. we want to thank all of our viewers tuning in live on twitter. you can watch her coverage every day from 4:00 until 5:00 eastern. scarlet: we begin with the end of the nine day selloff in u.s. stocks. .ow gaining 350 points u.s. stocks gaining 2% with every major industry group higher. for the s&p and dow, this is the best one-day performance since march 1. it's like a steady grind down. it feels like an up crash today. matt: the biggest gain since march 1, everything will group up, every stock up. green across the
4:01 pm
board. every industry group is that band it's hardly even worse talking about individual stock stories today. there are some out there like lending club, but really, the story is a rising tide lifts all boats and that's why we see such a big rally 24 hours before the start of voting here in the u.s. joe: in the bond market, some interesting things going on. 10 year up to 1.38%, reflecting that risk on scenario and people selling off u.s. government bonds. the mexican five year yield is dropping with mexican assets across the board sensitive to this. people buying mexican bonds on the rally. i want to focus on italian
4:02 pm
government bonds because i think if trump were to win, people might start thinking about what is the next country where we could see -- there is that referendum coming up, so it is interesting italian 10 year yields are dropping. from looking at this election from a global bond market perspective,'s those are some good things to keep an eye on. scarlet: the yen and other safe haven currencies declining. dollar-yen back above 104. joe mentioned mexican assets getting a bid. indexoomberg dollar ending a six-year losing streak. what is getting lost in the shuffle is china continues to weaken its currency, falling to a record low next to a basket of its peers. the people's bank of china is preempt any sharp
4:03 pm
spikes after the tuesday election were fed rate increase. on commodities, let's look at a few big movers. huge rallies in iron ore and nickel. the chinese base metal rally continues and lots of suggestions that the speculative fervor is picking up again. goldore up nearly 3% and the flipside of everything we have seen as people pile into safe haven assets. matt: a good day for david stockman dubai. some he asked me on twitter where he has all his money and we already know -- cash and gold. scarlet: let's take a deep dive down into the bloomberg. joe: i'm looking at a new function on the bloomberg. scarlet often starts looking at global macro monitor and gives the picture of the bonds, commodities and we also have the
4:04 pm
country macro monitor looking at individual countries. this left column here, we see equity surging across the board, up nearly 3%. mexican assets seen as pretty sensitive. this is a mexican government .ond with yields dipping over here, it does not quite show it as well. currenciesll of the plunged against the peso today. the view crs, the world currency ranking and -- that did not quite work. there you go.
4:05 pm
there's the world currency ranking. the mexican peso the way with a 2% gain. to the ongoings sensitivity of dollar peso to this election. that lookse a chart at the rich getting richer. joe, i know you were looking at this chart. one, you can see the effects some election events on the richest 500 people in the world. at $4.5 trillion, but you can see they took a huge hit during brexit and now that hillary's hopes have returned with james comey kind of lame when no one was
4:06 pm
paying attention, he lasted out the investigation on friday which freaked out the world and then some people noticed when he said don't worry about it. billionaires and millionaires got $37 billion richer. you can check that out on the bloomberg. scarlet: for more on this election eve, let's check in on some much needed perspective. team clinton has been talking up their ground game for weeks. can we expect?, he states bothvisiting today? guest: are bringing out their surrogates. the ground game is going to matter in states that are close. north carolina's close and ohio
4:07 pm
is close. trump has the edge in ohio. he needs to win all of those states plus iowa plus one or two other states. she is looking at about a three point lead in the popular vote. we will see what happens tomorrow. isn't he showing up in states that are tilting toward the democrats? why is he spending time in michigan? guest: he is spending time in michigan and wisconsin because he's performing extremely well with non-college-educated white voters. that have belt states a higher proportion than the country as a whole. if he is going to hit 270, he has to win some democratic states and he has about as good a chance to win pennsylvania, so that is why hillary clinton is playing defense in states like new hampshire. joe: the abc and washington post tracking poll, by yesterday, clinton possibly had hit three
4:08 pm
.omey letters -- levels it seemed like she was already losing ground prior to the letter and has -- the first letter, and has been gaining ground going into the second letter. what is ultimately going to be the ramifications of this whole episode? .uest: it's a great question between the nine days in the october 28 letter, clinton possibly get of ratings had doubled from negative seven two -14%. that always tends to be the case anytime e-mails are in the news. her lead in the popular vote decreased to about two or three points. she never really lost on the electoral college but the effect was to tighten national polls and make a number of states harder to win. matt: what are the chances donald trump gets very close or even wins the popular vote but
4:09 pm
loses the election because he does not get to 270? guest: pretty slim. it's hard to lay out this areas where he defeats are in the popular vote and loses the electoral college because she has an edge in the popular vote. if she ends up winning the thatar vote, it's likely the states leaning in her direction are going to tip in her direction. the scenario has to be most likely she wins the popular vote and wins the electoral college vote. scenario number two, she loses the popular vote that wins the electoral college. at least likely, donald trump wins the electoral college and popular vote. and i'm -- am i wrong about that? guest: i think that is right. the only way that would happen is if trump over performs in texas and states like oklahoma and alabama and runs up the numbers in the popular vote but does not produce the same numbers in this wing states. i would not that much money on
4:10 pm
that outcome. scarlet: we learned there is an undercounting of the latino turnout, but the real unknown seems to be trump supporters will go to the poll even though they've given no indication that they would. guest: there has been a lot of talk about the missing white vote. this is the big bet trump has made that there are tens of millions of white voters out there. there are also tens of millions of hispanic voters and turnout tends to be lower than the average nationally. we see a huge surge in the hispanic vote. they say that one is a much gone. it's helping in florida right now. if she wins that state, that will be the reason. the flipside is that african-american turnout is down, which democrats need to be strong to win. if clinton wins north
4:11 pm
carolina and florida, it's over. i know the networks are not going to call it until california and all of that, but what is the earliest we can get a read out of those states? the polls in north carolina are among the first to close. i wouldn't expect a call right away. say he istty safely toast. scarlet: we will be looking for that. in -- reminder to turn tune in to bloomberg for complete election coverage starting at 7:00 eastern tomorrow night. scarlet: we have results from priceline -- shares climbing in after-hours trading as the company gave an adjusted earnings per share outlook that missed estimates. nevertheless, priceline purporting -- reporting a charge on its opentable unit.
4:12 pm
charge.lion impairment it seems like bad headline numbers. priceline reporting third-quarter adjusted etf's beating analyst estimates and that is enough to push the stock higher in after-hours trading. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:13 pm
4:14 pm
scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" the s&p could plunge tomorrow if donald trump wins. financial markets have artie felt the shock this year. let's look at the four main asset classes in the numbers don't lie. talkedn with the most about indicator, which is the mexican peso. we have inverted it here. when the line goes down, that means the peso is losing value.
4:15 pm
it has been trading in tandem with trump's polling numbers. you had trump's rhetoric, renegotiating nafta, all driving sentiment of the peso trade. when thestrengthens peso strengthened its lead like when the axis hollywood take wrote. you can see trading patterns tied to the election. up 36 basis points since clinton possibly began widening in july. treasuries cutting back a week and a half after the e-mail drama was reignited, but they have reversed again. victory could lead to another bond selloff as investors sabr riskier assets. when it comes to stock, all of a redneck took a look at the
4:16 pm
companies are most politically sensitive. 69 have moderate to strong therse relationships with clinton numbers. one clear group stands out and that is linked to trump and aat's the financials with positive correlation to trump and negative correlation with clinton. that spread is bigger than any other group. you look at commodities, gold, platinum and silver tend to be the biggest winners if trump wins. prize disclosure on october 28 tro is prices higher along with other safe havens. we will be following all the markets beginning at seven eastern time on tuesday. matt: for more on the election and the impact it will have, we're joined by the head of policy research at strategic's.
4:17 pm
thank you for joining us. let me ask what you make of what seems to be clear, that this market wants hillary clinton to win and when we see the chances of a donald trump victory, the market tanks. why do you think that is? have 100 years of data showing that when the incumbent , so inins, markets rally a certain sense it's no different than any other time we have had when we have an open election. .hat makes sense to us you know what hillary clinton wants to do and you could put bookends around it. where she isand going to go on policy and by extension, markets. trump has a lot more uncertainty than we have seen with previous candidates and in particular,
4:18 pm
his ability through executive order, he doesn't even need congress -- i don't think he will do that but looking at the sensitivity of the mexico trade, it is clear evidence that is a concern to the market. usually point is you have to wait a month or two before the new administration comes in. they show you what their budget is and investors can handicap those outcomes. there is a work through when a new party takes over. market: a falling stock three months before the election usually leads to the incumbent party you -- losing the election. not happen this time around. why did that happen? not there yet. we were down 4% on friday and we said either this is a false signal or trump has a better chance that people are giving him credit for. we tend to rally on election day and we get another 2% of that
4:19 pm
means stocks will be positive if the incumbent party wins, but is there a chance for ace of -- for a surprise question mark the polling looks just like exit in the probabilities look just like exit. maybe the market is holding in a premium given the populist environment we are in. back to theto go last thing you said. yes, we had the brexit vote go contrary to expectations, but obama's approval ratings are the highest of his term ever or close to it. incumbentike a lot of senators who are mainstream are going to win. it is possible that people are overstating the populist wave and maybe this is not a change and anger elections way people thought it was going to be guest:? guest:that's right. our theme is angry as the new hope. president obama ran on hope and
4:20 pm
change it anger got a lot of attention in the primary with donald trump at bernie sanders. it may not be enough for a majority at this point, but if we muddle along at 2% growth, you will see these populist movements continue to grow. for each new election, these nontraditional parties in europe are gaining steam with each election. if you think about it, the five-star party in italy didn't exist five years ago and they are now running the two biggest cities and you see that across all countries. that's the real challenge for the next president, particularly if hillary wins. as far as polling is concerned, it looks like she's going to win, so anger doesn't when the oval office. is it a day for congress? republicans are picking
4:21 pm
up steam in the down ballot races. nate silver put the senate for the republicans, but in the house you see a major surge among house republicans. they were expected to lose between 10 and 20 seats and most were on the high side. if you look at the generic ballot, it suggests republicans will only lose two seats. where you see that anger play out is whether paul ryan could become speaker. does, the conservatives will have a tighter grip on the house and they may not want him to be speaker of the house. the first fight of the new congress may not be republicans versus democrats, and maybe angry republicans versus establishment republicans. stay with us because we should continue to talk about what happens after tuesday, not only as far as internal fights but how congress works with the new president.
4:22 pm
stay with us. this is bloomberg. scarlet: before we go, some quick breaking news on news corp., publisher of the wall street journal and new york post. they reported first-quarter just a lot for share of one cent when analysts were looking for zero. 1.90 $7 billion. no real change in after-hours trading. preliminary adjusted earnings per share will be anywhere from $.59 to $.69 per share. were looking for 4.1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:23 pm
4:24 pm
4:25 pm
joe: a beautiful shot of new york there. still with us as the head of policy research at strategic. eightors have had a great years or seven years or whatever and part of the winning combination has been this fairly frugal federal government, not much fiscal stimulus outside of the recovery act and an accommodative fed. that combination seems to have been really great. under a trump administration, we have been promised tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, repatriation of cash. see a different policy. how would the changing of monetary policy, what might that ultimately mean for investors?
4:26 pm
guest: we think of you have a trump presidency, you will see more focus on getting gdp growth higher. a lot of his tax growth are designed to put money into the economy right away. we can argue about whether that's effective or not. but if you look at where george bush did a large tax cut in 2003, you got high gdp in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2003. i show you that example because at that point, it allows the fed to normalize monetary policy. what happens for investors is investors got smaller returns after that. higher, is to get gdp but you have to sacrifice lower returns. if you converse that with hillary and she tries to do a package like the recovery act, i'm concerned you are not going to get a lot of gdp out of that. there's a long time before the money starts to come out.
4:27 pm
that you could get higher stock returns and less gdp. care shares have been linked to hillary clinton rightly or wrongly. what's the justification for health care shares to do aptly when you have the drug price initiative that has had more of an effect on this company? guest: i would make a difference between biotech stocks and health care related stocks. you have the california drug ballot initiative and more republicans in the senate, initiativeing on the is why you have a rally in biotech docs today. joe: thank you very much. look at coming up, we the future of tpp and the trade landscape following the election. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:28 pm
4:29 pm
4:30 pm
mark: i'm mark crumpton. time for first word news. andy, hillary clinton donald trump were barnstorming the united states in search of last-minute votes. mrs. clinton says she's the clear choice for president. she calls mr. trump a loose cannon and added if elected, she would wake up every day in the white house and think about what she would do to knock down barriers and create opportunities. mr. trump kicked off his last they have campaigning with a rally in sarasota, florida. he criticized the fbi's decision not to charge secretary clinton in connection with her newly discovered e-mails.
4:31 pm
it is up to the american people to deliver justice at the ballot box. trump plans to continue a breakneck campaign with five rallies. century clinton has appearances in three states. the lone american off the planet has cast his vote from space in keeping with nasa's motto of vote while you float. ballotronaut filed his from the international space station. the most polluted city on the planet, new delhi, india is toing unprecedented steps change air quality. the local government shut down schools for three days and put a five day ban on construction and demolition. ande's concern the auto real estate sectors could be most at risk if the government cannot clean up the polluted areas. global news 24 hours they powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
4:32 pm
i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. saylet: you are tempted to box office. it does feel like entertainment when we are talking about u.s. politics. the market recap on action. you can see the s&p 500 getting better than 2%, snapping a nine day losing streak, the longest since 1980. the dow interest reels, all major groups climbing on the day. the best one day advance since march. joe: futures continue to climb after-hours, so we are on a huge hair. on both sides of the campaign, trade has been a hot button topic. regardless of the winner, that deal may be in jeopardy. what does the postelection landscape portrayed look like question mark joining us is an adjunct scholar joining us from raleigh, north carolina.
4:33 pm
great to have you on the show. here's a question i should have asked a long time ago. he hasay trump wins and antipathy toward nafta and a lot of our trade deals. what can he do unilaterally? guest: with respect to the trade deals, he can do quite a bit. the trade promotion authority under u.s. law grants the president pretty significant leeway to withdraw from our free trade agreements or renegotiated. can't dodo or at least without really stretching the text of our current laws is act unilaterally to impose massive terrorists on chinese imports or companies that move abroad were so forth. to do that would require a really liberal interpretation of the law and not to mention would encounter tremendous pushback
4:34 pm
from the u.s. business community , trading partners at the wto, and congress. scarlet: to what extent do you think tpp is completely dead? support itnton did and took a closer look and decided she was opposed to it. is it dead on arrival or just dead in its current form? the rumors of tpp's death are greatly exaggerated. looks in thep water. even during the lame-duck section, we are not going to see tpp make it. after things die down a bit, it seems quite likely that tpp will rise from the dead under a clinton or trump presidency after some tweak to the text to get either one to support it. on the clinton side, guess is
4:35 pm
that's going be far more superficial, just basically looking for an excuse to say the agreement she used to support and opposed is now good enough for her to support again. on trump's side, it might take longer but he is going to want to put his name on it, so in a it might still go through under a president trump. scarlet: alice hillary clinton campaigning the day before election day, she continues to barnstorm through several states. i think it is six states she's hitting today? ist: one of the things she talking about. both of them seem anti-trade. both candidates are doing well in america which strikes me as odd because art we build on free trade? something we learned in school is detection is him was a horrible idea economically. you are coming to us from the
4:36 pm
cato institute, but refresh our minds as to why. i'm looking at manufacturing ins nafta was put in place 1994. they plummeted and have hardly come back to the great recession. trade a good thing? what evidence do you have nafta has helped us out rather than helping out everyone else who seems to have gotten a better end of the deal? guest: you mentioned manufacturing jobs and that's always what everyone looks at. manufacturing jobs have been declining as a share of the workforce since the 40's and total numbers since the 1970's. most drop lot -- most job losses are not due to trade agreements but automation and so forth. when you step back and look at manufacturing output, the united states is the number two manufacturer in the world. we produced a record-setting $2.4 trillion in output last year.
4:37 pm
we are just very efficient at it. has nafta help this economy? is tpp going to help us as well? guest: certainly. if you look at the consensus economic view of nafta, you find a consensus view and the trade commission just did a study on this. there was one by the obama seenistration that shows we a small but significant gdp gains, productivity gains, wage gains. the problem is, and this is why trade is a political hot that an issue, the cost to trade or automation or any type of creative instruction and that being born by a discrete minority of the united states workforce. the benefits of trade, whether from lower prices or more
4:38 pm
productivity are far more diffuse. situation like that, it is right for political demagoguery. in 2008, president obama was protectionist himself. he was anti-nafta and anti- outsourcing and now he is championing the tpp. went you get into office, the political calculus changes. the majority of the country supports free trade and free trade agreements, but they don't follow the issue closely. the people who do follow the issue closely are those who have lost from trade or any other type of industrial job destruction or those who stand to lose from future free market competition. you are associated with the cato institute and you are a free market guy. a lot of people on the left or writes a global trade is good and free trade is good, but we
4:39 pm
need a domestic redistribution to ameliorate some of those effects you are talking about in that last answer. do you agree? should we have some domestic redistribution to smooth out the benefits and whatever the opposite of benefit is from trade? guest: yes, but not just from trade. we have adjustment assistance programs in place and they are horrible failures. that is not a cato institute view. that's the department of labor that looks at it the program and has found it waste millions of dollars and beneficiaries are actually better off. i rated -- i wrote a story a few months ago about how we have a serious labor dynamism problem and a failure in our adjustment jobrams, whether it's programs or any other assistant -- assistance from the government.
4:40 pm
we need a better safety net when it comes to job losses, but it is not about trade. losses are dueb to automation. we need a broader based adjustment system to help displaced workers, but we need to think about better government policy to help workers help themselves, to help them save trade before disaster strikes. we don't have this in place and that's a serious problem, not trade. is there any chance of the tpp being taken up in the lame-duck? guest: i think there is a small chance. if you see tomorrow president-elect clinton emerge and a democratic senate, perhaps, that might give mitch mcconnell and the congressional republicans a little incentive to go forward. butink it's pretty small,
4:41 pm
it is certainly out there and i think the obama administration is going to try. joe: thank you very much. really appreciated. emerging market stocks gaining the most in three weeks and the peso leads frenzies higher. we will discuss whether the rally has more room to run. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:42 pm
4:43 pm
scarlet: tomorrow is election day and we have our special coverage beginning at 5 p.m. eastern time. we have a two hour "with all due " and then at 7:00
4:44 pm
eastern will be our bloomberg election special. will take you through all the election results and any overseas market reaction starting in new zealand and australia. matt: emerging market stocks had their best day since september as some perceive a clinton win being positive for the group. i am assuming the wind for emerging markets is an at hillary clinton would be better off for them as president at that it's a risk on play in today's trading guest:. guest:hiding it's both. at the risk on day and i think you are seeing an improvement in sentiment about emerging markets. you talked about things like the
4:45 pm
tpp and that has been an overhang since september. concerns the new president, whoever it may be to will be less friendly to big trade deals and that may weigh on the potential for emerging markets to grow. scarlet: how much of that totoric pushes politicians pull back on free trade ideas? guest: i think it depends on the country. when we talk to people in mexico, they have been holding back on investments and it's clearly coming through in the economics numbers. if they see a more constructive relationship with the u.s., they are unlikely to unleash investments and you will see more growth. you see that to a lesser extent in other countries but trade in emerging markets is just with the u.s. half of them go through other countries, so we are not the only game in town. joe: let's imagine there were no u.s. election and we were
4:46 pm
talking about emerging markets in their own right. it seems like a lot of the data around the world is really good. the manufacturing data was strong and the global pmi hit its highest level in a very long time. just on a fundamentals basis, do emerging markets have more room to run and expand? guest: i think they do. you see them outperforming evolved markets by about 10%, but they are still behind why about 30% and still trade at a discount to develop markets, so i think there's more room to run and there's a lot of money on the sidelines. a lot of investors are underweight to emerging markets and have been concerned about trade and u.s. interest rate trends. they are waiting to see continued fundamental strength before they put more money on the line. matt: emerging markets have had
4:47 pm
a decent run. goldman sachs and every big bank on the street was saying this is an opportunity. do you think they have come back enough for it continue to be an opportunity or are they hovering around fully valued? most capital assets seem to be pre-will valued. guest: you make a fair point. risk assets are fairly priced around the world and yet emerging markets continue to trade at a meaningful discount whether you look at stocks, bonds or currencies. that reflects some skepticism among investors. they want to see fundamental improvements and with each data point, you see continued outperformance. joe: what happens to emerging markets if trump wins? are they on investable for a while? guest: if trump wins, it is bad for risk assets.
4:48 pm
the paine overstate that will be felt by global trade. the global supply chains are incredibly integrated in those cannot be reversed overnight or over the course of four years. treaty commitments cannot be done -- cannot be undone overnight and we are all accustomed to having electronic devices made at affordable prices. we are not going to allow that to change. as someone who follows emerging markets closely, when you look at u.s. politics, does it look more p.m. like? guest: i hear them say that about rish politics these days. joe: what is your assessment? the distinction between countries as if one is black and the other is white has always been to extreme. these are countries in different stages of development and we see some of these countries graduate
4:49 pm
over because they make institutional and structural improvements to the policy and there is a spectrum here. scarlet: west -- which countries have graduated the most? who has been laying the groundwork for progress and reform? guest: you see interesting progress in places like brazil. there's a new president and congress is making progress which fiscal reform, should stabilize their debt dynamics. countries like the at not longer-term progress and gaining market share. scarlet: what about china? the currency is falling to a record low against a basket of its peers. it steadily depreciating the andency against the basket the depreciation caused all kinds of recession concerns and questions earlier this year. this time, it is barely raising anyone's eyebrows. bigger picture is
4:50 pm
broader economic activity has been more stable than anticipated. tumbled in the currency meant the whole economy was falling apart and that's clearly not happening. we're just more familiar with a chinese economy that is slower growing. guest: these are known unknowns. scarlet: i love it when we can quote donald rumsfeld. hear whatxt, we will the u.s. election means for the rest of the world. and check out some stocks moving in late trading news -- news corp. and priceline getting 4% while marriott is falling 3%. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:51 pm
4:52 pm
4:53 pm
matt: "what'd you miss?" citigroup says things are still prone to black swan events. there were some examples of what does could be and how likely they are. we have to focus on election day. it's quite possible we don't get a resultant time for the market open in london, maybe even in new york, if there needs to be a recount in any state. that's probably the most benign outcome. you have quite a close vote in a swing state for that to transpire. we've had threats of terrorist attacks and the fbi announcement may be temporarily has taken one thing off the table but between the possibility of electoral
4:54 pm
irregularities and a terrorist anack and the possibility of intervention which the fbi is investigating, we've got three wildcards, it might not change the outcome, but it might mean uncertainty and you have talked about what kind of volatility we have seen. have we heard the last of hillary clinton's e-mail scandal? guest: a friend of mine uses the term brown ugly ducklings. i don't think we have heard the last squawk. i think we have a stay of execution because i understand and i think it's an obvious point that the wikileaks contain probably also content that's likely to be the subject of future investigations. on howpends very much congressional control goes.
4:55 pm
whether it is divided or a republican-controlled congress. >> is there still the risk of an impeachment process? >> i think it is a non-negligible risk because the fbi is investigating the clinton global initiative. base case?your >> we downgraded the probability hillary clinton victory to 60%. hillary clinton in the white house and they divided the ingres a lot will depend on down to get voting and that depends on turnout. one of the interesting points has been how may people have come out for early voting which says maybe how much americans want to get this all over with. david: we were speaking about the difficulty of whether the markets have priced in a clinton victory. would you say that they have? >> i think that is the case
4:56 pm
which is why you saw the selloff. then the rally we saw today. markets are having a lot of trouble pricing this election in the first place and lets her of choppyt kind trading sessions we get after a presidential election. days of volatility following obama plus victories but the s&p went on to some of its best days ever. matt: that was the citigroup she global equity strategist. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:57 pm
4:58 pm
scarlet: tomorrow is november 7. matt: scarlet: tomorrow is the scarlet: eight. we are going to talk about the election. it is our special election coverage starting at 5:00 with a special two-hour "with all due
4:59 pm
respect. matt: that's after "what'd you miss?" . then at 7 p.
5:00 pm
mark: john: i mark halperin. and i'm john heilemann. with all due respect to donald trump, that escalated quickly. mr. trump: this is going to be exit plus. times this is brexit times 10. this is going to be brexit times 50. it's going to be brexit plus plus plus. a lot of brexits. happy election eve sports fans. tomorrow in all 50 of these


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on