tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg November 8, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
york, this is the european close on him bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: we will take you from new york to london to washington and berlin in the next hour. here is what we are watching your voters take to the polls in the u.s. to decide who will be the next president, first results expected at 7:00 p.m. eastern and we will bring you the latest from the bloomberg's politics team and cover the market impact depending on the outcome. vonnie: u.s. stocks falling while bonds are fluctuating. polls showing hillary clinton narrowly ahead of donald trump. all of europe will be watching the results of the u.s. elections closely, what could the implications mean for u.s. -european trade relations? we will speak with the deputy finance minister of germany, jens spahn.
happening now, donald trump is casting his vote. he is voting at public school 59 in manhattan on the east side of manhattan. , he is casting his vote, he said he would be voting for donald trump. [applause] --[laughter] . mark: 30 minutes away from the close, this is gmm go, global macro movers. yesterday, we rose for the first day, these are the currency fees rising and falling against the dollar with the pound slightly up. bond yields and commodities today, a caution ahead of the outcome of the election and a busy day for earnings.
it announced plan to shut down 30 clothing stores in the u.k. and changing to food only outlets, their ceo wind in the expansion efforts of his predecessors desperate assessor, the retailer will shut 53 stores outside the u.k. and begin consultations with over 2000 workers, it retreats from 10 countries including china and belgium. it is cutting is margin outlook for the year underlying pretax profit fell a less than estimated 19% with shares getting hammered. our that fly columnist said, too little, too late from mns. a.b. food, shares of 5.7% today. -- 5.7% today. the budget clothing change to earnings should improve this financial year as the world sugar prices turned favorable
and the weaker pound boasts that boost the value of profit. twining tea is leaning on it sugar business amid slower growth. data out of macro the u.k.. surging the most in five months in september led by repair and maintenance of transport equipment including ships and machinery, factory .6%,t is rising by exceeding forecast for a .4% increase, manufacturing has been helped by sterling, 60% slide against the dollar since brexit, total industrial production dropped .4% as continued maintenance of north sea oilfields drags oil and gas extraction down by 4.5%. further evidence that starlings decline is helping the manufacturing industry.
90 minutes into the trading days in the u.s.. julie: only one data point that matters and we know what it is. we are not seeing many changes, big changes in advance of that for stocks, treading water after the biggest gains yesterday for the major averages going back to march. today, yesterday everything was in the green, all of the industry groups in the s&p 500, only 14 stocks traded lower. ,oday it looks much more mixed telecoms, utilities, and consumer discretionary stocks higher with health care, financials, and materials leading the decline. especially dramatic turnaround for financial shares which yesterday were gaining in part with the overall market and in rise,e saw bond yields they are still higher today but not helping the financials which are little changed. this was the game yesterday and today we are seeing the gas now although the to date return is still 2.2%, a big game yesterday
, the today return is still pretty sizable. earnings winners and losers today, priceline shares at a record, the company is forecasting strong growth and hotel room bookings. johnson controls also trading higher on earnings. that company saw its eye boost in sales related to its hitachi joint venture. acadia pharmaceuticals gaining after their losses were wider but revenue was -- moves,downside, dramatic hertz global holdings and almost half its eye after the company's earnings missed estimates. one maiden holdings, a financial company cutting is forecast for the full year and cvs as well saying it will see a loss in revenue related to prescriptions. , we saw its hiking in the past hour, half-hour or so that
it has come back to where it was before the spike. it appears to have to do with the announcement from india that it was scrapping the two highest of the nation's currency notes. -- denominations currency notes. gold is a very popular investment in india but it has come back to where it was before the headlines came out. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news from new york. + it -- >> it is up to the american people, they are deciding who will lead the country for four years, 50 million people's get the lines at polling places because they voted early. polls show hillary clinton with a narrow lead, she hopes to be the first woman to be elected president, she spoke after voting. i know how much responsibility goes with this and so many people counting on the outcome of this election, what it means for our country
and i will do the best eye can if i am fortunate enough to win today. hebefore donald trump voted, announced the polls that show him running behind. trump: i think they are purposely wrong, the media is very dishonest, extremely dishonest and i think a lot of the polls are phony. i do not think they interview people, i think they put out phony numbers. >> both campaigns have plant victory partisan manhattan. germany has arrested five men of recruiting for islamic state, authorities say the suspects focused on recording -- recruiting young muslims and sending them to syria to join with islamic militants. see thet in brazil inflation goals within reach, the government report tomorrow may show annual inflation only below 8% and economist forecasts that next year, up consumer prices will rise 5%. brazil's outlook has improved text to a slowdown in food
prices, a stronger currency, and the prospect that congress will cut spending. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: all eyes are on this country today, american voters headed to the polls to cast their ballot for a republican candidate donald trump or democratic candidate hillary clinton. one outcome in your certainty, a dysfunctional u.s. congress will get even more on workable -- not workable. steve, is that a fair assessment , will he get more non-workable? , you willer who wins see gridlock in government, the same gridlock over the past two years which is not new. depending on how the senate shakes out. may get easier for the next president, if clinton
wins and democrats pick up four senate, they would take back the majority in the senate but the house is a different matter, that is more difficult and nobody thinks that will happen. the senate is a tossup, in play. all the democrats need is clinton to win and four seats. vonnie: what races are you watching? >> nine in particular. one race in illinois looks like it will be a democratic pickup, mark kirk's seat in illinois, he could possibly lose which is one for the democrats. the other three they would need are going to come from states like pennsylvania possibly, wisconsin possibly, north carolina and maybe new hampshire. a competitive race between the
current senator kelly ayotte and the sitting governor, maggie hassan. if we get a slim majority in the senate, does that mean a couple of senators may be able to hold their leaders hostage over there ideological demands? >> more possible be slimmer the margin you can have that political gamesmanship happen. democrats take back the senate, this clears a way, a majority is all that is needed for some presidential appointments, judges and things like that which would, unless there is a filibuster, clear some way. they will get to set the agenda for the senate which is not everything but it helps a democratic president get things in front of voters instead of having it hidden away. , whichf clinton wins
areas will she be able to find some sort of compromise with congress depending on the outcome? >> i think we will see a number of things be floated in the next administration if clinton wins. you are seeing state-level minimum wage increases, something hillary clinton campaigned on. something that her supporters support if she wins, she may feel like she has a mandate to increase the national minimum wage, whether or not she will a compromise in washington, the house would have problems with that but if tonight we have a lot of the ballot measures passed in states, not all ifocrat leading state, minimum wage passes and some of the states across the country, she may feel more a mandate. vonnie: the nominee situation, not just merrick garland who is
waiting, he may not be the next supreme court justice and other potential supreme court justices and positions like the head of the sec. -- fcc. >> if hillary clinton is elected and the senate flips to democrat, you may see more republican say we will take merrick garland because clinton might propose a more liberal justice in the future and we will take the one we know and have been studying over the last few months who is better than maybe someone else. vonnie: you will be manning the electoral map tonight, everybody tune in for that because he wore a tie. that is our coverage starting at 5:00 p.m. eastern with a two hour with all due respect posted by mark halperin and john heilemann and from 7:00 to bloomberg election special, hosted by washington news bureau chief megan marciano's. cameos all my long. -- all night long.
this is donald trump live butgo, not moments ago, he voted on the east side of manhattan at ps 59. that is moments ago. he told fox earlier he decided to vote for trump and he is a little bit superstition but it has been a beautiful process. the clintons cast their vote a little while ago in chappaqua.
market as weat the await some reaction. major indices up a quarter of a percent and index is a little bit lower than it was earlier, just about 18. time for the latest is newsflash. canadian drugmaker valeant has but it's an overcast after posting a third-quarter loss, a $1 billion goodwill impairment to write down the value of some of its u.s. businesses. they became the focus of outrage over high drug prices in the u.s. last year sending stock prices down more than 90% from its high in 2015. shares of hurts plunging, earnings that missed estimates, they had a decline in rental volumes and a drop in the value of its cars. the british department store marks & spencer plans to shut
down outlets in the u.k. and overseas. 60 stores in the u.k. will be closed over five years, they will also close 53 stores outside of the u.k. their ceo is unwinding the expansion efforts of his predecessor while he tries to rework years of underperformance. that israel bloomberg is the splash for this hour -- that is your bloomberg business flash for this hour. mark: the question is how will the election affect the market. something's a trump victory would present an opportunity. >> i think there would be a short run selloff pretty severe if he were elected. that would go against market expectations. we know uncertainty is not welcomed by the risk market. if donald trump were elected, i expect a big downward spike on
the risk markets, equity markets , but i think that is an opportunity. certain, is for neither candidate is a marxist or a hugo chavez socialist. they are all going to basically believe in free markets. not going into a very severe direction but in the short run, definitely. we saw what happened yesterday when clinton went up after the fbi restatement. a trump victory in the short run would be severe. grabsnate is the up for and we may not know in 24 hours by this time tomorrow, but that is the one that has the markets more on edge now.
is a buying opportunity, we hear that a lot, walk me through why it would be a buying fromtunity, fundamentally a cross as that perspective, would the stock coffin dollars be supportive of that story, the idea it would you u.s. equities -- it would fuel u.s. equities? -- ifre is a question donald trump is elected, does he have congress behind him? i would say no. unilaterally -- she does have some power with executive orders on trade but unilaterally he cannot dismantle nafta or many of these trade agreements. he has to go to congress which will be very moderating and skeptical. , if heway, it appears should get an upset victory, i
would pretty well say the senate would be republican and the house is expected to be republican, all three would be republican. a certainly is not going to get a carte blanche on his policies but i would expect the dollar to decline. there is a lot of nervousness abroad. we saw that with brexit. the pound the klein, that -- declined, that fueled the ftse because the competitive position of the u.k. industries actually did improve. if the dollar declines, that is not bad for u.s. stocks. congress, controlled lower taxes, lower capital taxes in the long run, and a break on his more radical plans. i do not see it as a disaster for the u.s. economy. , a whartony siegel
school professor speaking earlier on bloomberg markets they break america's today. the u.s. election underway in -- in norway, investors taking caution, the stoxx 600 trading at a lower volume. europe has seen its share of uncertainty with the brexit vote in june. what could be the implications of the election outcome and what does it mean for you up-europe trade relations? joined by the deputy finance minister of germany, jens spahn. which outcome is better for germany, clinton or trunk -- prompt --trump? jens: you do not expect me to comment on election day, we just note that there will be a different kind of challenge. mark: can we talk about the challenges, what sort of challenges when it comes to
relationships between germany and the u.s. or europe and the u.s. does first a clinton presidency present and day trump presidency -- and a trump presidency present? jens: we need to talk about a common approach when it comes to free-trade. a big part of the campaign in the u.s. europe, ifr side, in it is syria, russia, ukraine, or north africa, we have tasks to fulfill and we need to talk about how much for example the u.s. want to engage in the future in europe and in the neighborhood of europe. actually, we have many issues to talk about. if it is trump or clinton. mark: some say deutsche bank might prefer a clinton presidency that -- and that heer a trump administration,
may be less willing to come to some sort of favorable conclusion to these settlement talks. it would have been better to have reached a settlement before the electio n? jens: this is a nonpolitical process with the settlement with and the u.s. authorities and i hope it remains a nonpolitical process and they talk about the issues they need to talk about and that they will find the kind of nonpolitical.t is something that has to do with the issue. mark: with many investors questioning deutsche bank's capital levels, are you feeling relaxed about the outcome of the negotiations, settlement talks? jens: i have trust in the negotiations on both sides. the u.s. administration and deutsche bank, that they are
talking about what is necessary to talk about and they take the time they need but they sooner or later will find a result we .ll need i do not going to details. mark: of course and i do respect that. we will smoothly move on to brexit. the high courts ruled last week and the ruling is essentially ensures until the supreme court makes its ruling at least that theresa may has to get the improvement -- approval of parliament before she can travel article 50. how much do you think this could delay the triggering of article 50? jens: it depends on how long a debate in the parliament of the u.k. will take. what we do expect is that the process starts sooner than later, i would prefer sooner
because the problem now is the uncertainty for both sides. the european union and the united kingdom. certainty is never good for growth. never good for the economy. what stood chart soon is the process -- what's -- what should start soon is the process. now, the parliament has a say in it and now we see what it will say. mark: what would be the impact of germany, sir, if britain stops contributing into the eu budget? under brexit, germany would become -- you would carry the biggest share of it. is that a massive blow? jens: i totally regret that the leave, not just because of the budget because there is an important partner on the leave, we had so many issues
we were in together with the united kingdom when it came to negotiations and brussel. the euro budget, we had a common approach that we have new priorities, not just more money for the same stuff but new priorities, migration, for example, security, fighting terrorism. budget, if the u.k. is normal, countries that contributes to the budget, it is about who else is jumping in given the money that is not there, talking about priorities. -- or whatthe money do we need it for and that will take years to figure out. mark: thank you sir for joining us. ♪
looks like stocks will finish up for the second consecutive day, yesterday was the first day of gains and 12. u.s. stocks rising, they seek point 3%,up one thanks, to come observers, construction, materials also rising today. ,he earnings season continues shares and credit agricole up by 5.6%, the biggest gain since march. the third-biggest lender, it pledged to keep its dividend at least stable, the chief executive in his second year on the job completing an 18.5 billion euro deal to sell holdings at more than three dozen regional lenders that own a majority stake in the back, boosting capital, but it's credit has record low interest rates erode earnings but it benefited from a recovery. shares of 5.6% today. they roast biggest dealmaker, 4%
lower -- steel -- the world biggest steel maker 4% lower. a dramatic surge in coal prices and a drop in u.s. steel prices will hurt earnings in the last three months of the year. it posted its biggest quarterly profit since 2014, prices for steel rebounded. has more thancoal tripled this year after china d output.curbe many expectedere extended surpluses. finishing off with best this when systems, shares early as rising as much as 4%, now 9% lower. today, the chief executive said growth could slow that year, 2016 would be a next ordinary year for the danish manufacturer of wind turbines and sales are
likely to slump in the u.s. in biggeste company's market, the expansion it is enjoying this year will be unlikely to repeat. the quarter marked the 12th consecutive profitable quarter rebounding from a slump from 2011 and shares jump yesterday after polls showed clinton yesterday leading trump. renewable energy shares in the united states. what a day but it is all about the election. voting.and , with the major , aexes, getting some gains second day of gains after nine days of declines commentating last friday in the drop.
not huge volume, when you see the dow up fortunes of 1% and only three stocks lower, not as significant as some other asset classes. 1%, better3/10 of performing groups are telecom stocks, up three orders of 1%. financials getting back on gains we saw yesterday. weakness for the yen, a half a percent, 105, the first time it has been available for a little bit. gains in the new zealand dollar. crude down to tenths of a percent. selling in the treasury market and yields move higher. 85 basis points for the u.s. two-year yield, a milestone. and the 10 year yield, 1.85%. bit.ening perhaps a little
we want to turn to some other boards. the two-year yield. the vix not as elevated as yesterday. currencies, the dollar index pretty much where it was yesterday. the yen, i mentioned that, the peso we are watching, it is strengthening. we will not make protections about the election by the run in remembi staying with your let's check on the first word is. campaign came to an end early today that a better campaign came to an end --a bitter campaign came to an end.
hillary clinton has a narrow lead. donald trump voted in new york earlier. notold foxnews he does trust opinion polls which he says are an accurate on purpose. british prime minister theresa may says she will work to reinforce the relationship with the u.s. no matter who the next president is. she told sky news she called -- he will call everyone -- whoever wins as soon as possible and she wins the presidential race have measured.calm and the british day trader accused of helping coffee 2010 flash crash was set to appear in federal court in chicago today but that has been delayed until tomorrow. he lost a year-long battle to avoid being extradited from the u.k.. --is accused of sprucing goofing trades from a computer program and they in -- and they blamed him for a trading frenzy that briefly wiped almost $1 trillion from the value of u.s. equities.
plans to cut carbon dioxide pollution by more than half over the next 15 years. that is according to a draft of a plan obtained by bloomberg. the reduction would be the most ambitious in the european union and the german government has global over how to divide pollution reductions among the biggest sectors of the economy. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: five months after the surprise u.k. vote to leave the eu.-- uv -- brexit is still on everyone's lips. >> this will be brexit plus. this is brexit times five. this will be brexit times 10. this will be brexit times 50. brexit plus, plus, plus.
acrimony surrounding brexit intensified? we are joined by mark who says it is. there is a certain joke, doing the rounds of twitter. >> brexit walks into a bar, why --long it is turning into a debacle. they say britain is sleepwalking into fascism, not quite that bad but some of the racist tone of the coverage, a daily mail front page accusing the judges of being enemies of the people for supporting parliament's right to have a vote on this issue. you used to do business around election time, do you support trump, clinton, liverpool, arsenal, this is pretty deep.
mark: both sides are accused of exaggerations and half-truths, scaremongering. is there still denial about the outcome? askinge was a poll people who voted to stay and they asked them where you are on the scale measuring people in grief and 32% said they are still in denial, they do not believe you kate wanted to leave. wanted tod the u.k. leave and only fifth have accepted the decision. the anger is high. vonnie: it was a stunning number. speaking about this poll yesterday with someone from citigroup. not regress the vote yet in as many numbers as you might think they would. once the economy gets hit, will
they? or when cns does not receive the ,oney from european subsidies will it then or when migrants do not stop coming because migrants in syria and turkey were not the migrants that were causing the great numbers of migration. , willhat does not happen they still regret the boat -- vote? >> it keeps people in denial if they think the hope the thing there any grief about did not happen. appealed to the supreme court which is parliament gets to vote, but there are people who think parliament will overturn the decision and whatever bill gets put in front of theresa may and the government, they will make a way to undo the referendum and not have the u.k. cleaving the european union. you are back where he started. mark: what does edmund burke
say? parliamentarian, 1700s, he says, if you are collected as the np from bristol, you are not there to represent the people of bristol come but the country as a whole. he says he must vote on any bill in front of you for the nation as a whole and not for the interest of the people who actually elected you which would argue that the fact that a lot of constituencies outside of london voted to leave the eu should not way up on those politicians. they should be voting in the interest of the country as a whole and from there it is not hard to construct an argument that says if you want you want -- a british trading position to stay descent and financial services within the city to be protected, maybe they should be somehow projecting the outcome of the referendum. you get into constitutional issues but it is not very hard
to construct that argument. jens: people need -- vonnie: people need to read your piece. you quote a french writer from the 1800s that talk about revolution, comparing this with a revolution. >> it is a bridges to -- it is a british coup. the divisions are so wide, you do not find anyone in the middle and if you follow twitter, a gets very heated, even at this stage and we have not trickled -- triggered article 50. investors do not like dividing countries and if the pound is thebarometer of what country will face, they are not in favor. mark: brexit starting to feel like a very british coup. by mark gilbert. vonnie: brexit walking into a bar, all right.
house and republicans hold the house of representatives and the senate is probably about 50-50. mark: it means yesterday's market reaction continues to play out. i think we get similar price action to what we saw yesterday on a clinton victory and i think where it gets interesting is on a trump patriot because that is a non-status quo result. that is where we get some of the price action we saw yesterday. to the assets, we start with the u.s. 10 year and one of the stories is focusing on the yield on the 10 year will be to bert 2.6% in 12 months which is more bearish than the median estimate which is 2.13%. ,linton wins, what happens short-term, what happens if trump short-term? >> in the short-term, we have
struggled to get about 1.9% for the past six to seven months in the u.s. 10 year note. if we get a clinton victory, i could see it go about 1.9. anger-term, i think it is much more difficult proposition because we do not know how much fiscal stimulus we will get or the makeup of congress or how they will work with the white house. a clinton victory in the short-term visas -- sees us about 1.90%. a trump patriot, 10 year notes about 15-20 basis points lower in yield. mark: not brexit levels? >> not immediately but it depends on how it plays itself out, we could revisit those levels but not immediately. mark: if the republicans hold the senate, what kind of rhetoric, what about trade? >> the knee-jerk is lower. mark: that is the 10 year.
this is the town. -- pound. tople are comparing brexit the election, donald trump saying this is brexit times 10, 50. sterling has had a small recovery until recent days, off its lows post-brexit. scenarios? , wen a status quo result will probably see the pound drift a little bit lower. if you think about the flash 126 range, we do not go to 118 ago substantially lower. could get patriot, we to the highs of 126 perhaps push a little bit higher because the knee-jerk reaction will be a weaker dollar. mark: if trump wins, what are
behaving currencies -- the haven currencies? >> we talked about this last week. 8, peopleck below 10 talked about it as an unofficial floor. should we have a trump big three, we could challenge the levels on the day after brexit, 106 and change. mark: for the euro against the frank. movecause he a reasonable lower on euro swiss if trump wins. mark: biggest moving currency pesobe, the pace of -- the it trump wins. >> i think people are trading it with a trump proxy so it is one
to watch. the yen could push 100 with a trump victory. mark: who intervenes? and i'm less uncertain about japanese victories. great to see you. richard jones, bloomberg rate strategist. time for the business flash. the biggest business stories in the news. the male operator -- we spoke to their chief it -- executive about the health of the company. that this last year year would be much better and we are on a healthy track, we had a record, all divisions improved. we are happy with the development this by the world
economy is pretty modest at the moment. we see the impact of the actions we have taken. ran signed its first big natural gaseous since it was easier this year. for $.8 is not enough billion. they had been working on the project when sanctions aimed at stopping iran's new the program forced it to stop in 2009. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. charts, fxe of the volatility of brexit highs versus the u.s. postelection velocity of money. which chart tells it best, i will be the judge next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: time for the global battle of the charge. some of the most telling chart of the day and what they mean for investors. you can access them on the bloomberg by -- abigail doolittle kicking things off. >> taking a look at what might be the focus for investors after the election. likely to be the focus prior to the election, a likely fed rate hike in december. can the fed raise rates without weighing on stocks and the economy. chart, a long-term chart of the s&p 500 in white, the king year yield in off what the velocity of money, as the tenure has declined, this is reinflate it stocks 500 and helped move higher and 40 while helping people lost the of money trade
mid-1990's, a stronger economy as money exchanged hands quickly. as the rate policy became more ordinary, the velocity of money has gone down to all-time lows. can the fed overtime raise rates without causing the velocity of money to continue lower and way on the s&p 500. a bit of a conundrum for the fed. mark: where can you find a chart? >> btv4840. vonnie: i love that. i question we need to ask tomorrow. jpmorgan'sty chart, index, g7 currencies but what is pre-brexi., t. the pund -- pound is a major element.
election will be dollar positive neutral or negative but not to the extent of the brexit vote was going to be and that is the way traders are taking it. significant event for the mexican peso or potentially the yen but even there the volatility before today's event is clearly not reflecting there will be huge currency moves. you can see that chart on the bloomberg. 4838. mark: brilliant. anything that brings up brexit and the u.s. election, she knows . abigail did the velocity of money and that is new, this is hard. i will go to my producer. -- who won?o
abigail is the winner and i do not get the blame. vonnie: no one ever blames you for anything. mark: love both charts. donald trump's vice president joe biden running mate mike pence casting his vote in indianapolis. matece president running mike pence casting his vote in indianapolis. stocks rose for the second day after 11 straight days when the stoxx 600 failed to register and event. all about the u.s. where stocks are trading higher today. this is bloomberg ♪.
bloomberg world headquarters in new york's, covering story from washington, d.c. to new york and to london and most all. -- mosul. americans eligible to vote for president with as many as 50 million having already done so. we will go to chicago and hear from austan goolsbee, the former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president obama. he is a hillary clinton supporter. been an exactver science and fight is getting worse. the training day, julie hyman joins us with the latest. julie: a remarkable turnaround, stocks lower earlier not by much lower after yesterday again, the largest -- yesterday's big game, the largest since march 1.