Skip to main content

tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  November 11, 2016 2:30am-4:01am EST

2:30 am
you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. ♪ guy: welcome to bloomberg markets: the european we have your first trade of the day. i am guy johnson in new york. caroline hyde is in london. what are we watching? who is on the team for donald trump? we will be talking a lot about this story. china enters the bull market and copper has its best week. is the market getting ahead of itself? .imco
2:31 am
with treasury selling off and trump-flation. perhaps moretion, signs of green ahead. less than 0.25% if you --k at the euro stocks 50 stoxx 50. such phenomenal technical signals. function on your bloomberg. drop-down, look below the settings line and you can see the option of going to -- since donald trump elected. look at the flashing boxes and what they are signaling. huge outside moves.
2:32 am
some real standout stories on gmm.umana -- on the the mexican market down 6.7%. look at what has been happening with the yen. an amazing move -- down by nearly 4%. the dollar rallying. look at the rial. the bond market a real center of attention. based the burke curve. the bond market telling off big time. copper -- what a week. rest in 30 years. up since donald trump has been elected up nearly 10%. rateg at an extraordinary as he talks about making america great again by driving infrastructure. an amazing story. it is encapsulated beautifully there. on us get you caught up everything you need to know. here is the bloomberg business
2:33 am
news. tte: demonstrations against donald trump's of victory continue across the u.s. >> we are all immigrants. we are all immigrants. juliette: hundreds of protesters gathered outside of trump tower on fifth tower chanting angry slogans and waving banners that read -- not my president. former new york mayor rudy rudy has called the protesters a bunch of cry babies. donald trump has told his british counterpart that he wants to rekindle the kind of relationship shared by ronald reagan and --. a very the u.k. is special place for me and my country. it would be the greatest possible honor to host her in washington as soon as possible. alibaba is on track to smash its
2:34 am
singles day record. alibaba enlisted top celebrities, including david beckham and kobe bryant to promote the date which dwarfed black friday and cyber monday in the u.s. leonard cohen, the hugely influential canadian singer-songwriter, has died at age eight 82. -- at age 82. he says he got into music because he could not make a living as a poet. the canadian prime minister has tweeted that no one else has felt or sounded like leonard cohen and his work right -- registered across generations. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. , juliet.k you president obama met with his
2:35 am
successor yesterday at the white house. the meeting came just days after obama warned donald trump -- warned voters that donald trump was dangerously erratic. donald trump tweeted his appraisal of the meeting. d.c. -- a fantastic day in met with president obama for the first time. great chemistry. meanwhile, in europe, details about what a donald trump presidency will look like continues to worry leaders and policymakers across the globe. we hear from bundesbank's president. not only the sentiment and current behind the brexit boat but more recently the results of the presidential election raised the question of how much reductionism and isolationism will determine the future political agenda. caroline: let us get the take from europe on president donald
2:36 am
trump. we are joined on the phone by the eu trade minister. thank you for joining us. how worried are you about the unraveling of trade deals between europe and the u.s. since donald trump's of election? is absolutely essential that the eu has good relations with the u.s., whom ever is the president. the message has to be continued. but i am worried that the new sosident is speaking negatively about free trade. that could be a problem. dead?s ttic >> i do not think it will be dead but there will be ongoing negotiations for years to come. we have to say that it is put on hold. us some: minister, give
2:37 am
information about ttp and nafta. are these deals going to be unwound? see because donald trump has said in the election that he would not go forward with the ratification of tpp and he will try to get a new deal from nafta. he has not spoken to much of ttic but he has been more or less anti-trade in his rhetoric. these will be hard years for trade. i think this will be negative also for the u.s. because i think the u.s. is benefiting from trade. take for example sweden where we have 130,000 jobs in sweden which are actually depending on the exports to the united states but in the u.s., 300,000 jobs
2:38 am
are because of the exports from sweden. guy: a relationship. and you think about what happens next, was the brexit vote against globalization, was the vote for donald trump a vote for globalization? becauseme extent it was so many people feel frustration of globalization, of the widening gaps between people, of and it isf any income not possible to say well, we are going to do something against globalization. what you can do is to stop trade agreements. so it feels like you are doing something if you say no to trade. i think you need structural changes in the countries to be going forward. jobs.nnot save old you have to go forward and -- whate but what has
2:39 am
is not happening so far in the u.s. is they have not taken care of the losers of globalization and free trade. they have to take themselves individually. you have to have a system where you have reeducation, a welfare system so that it is good for many and not paid for by the few. caroline: it is arguable that does just -- that not just the u.s. is guilty of that. can the eu work together, can europe work together to see positive impact on their economies post-brexit and the u.s. -- which is the biggest risk to the eu growth? brexit or donald trump coming to the presidency? the influencet is of both brexit and donald trump. they could both be influential when it comes to the economic
2:40 am
forecast but at the same time, we have to find ways to work. the united states and the eu are the world's biggest trading areas. we have to find a reasonable way to work even if many of the values are not the same. and it has been easier to work with president obama but to find a way to work with donald trump is essential. my government will try to do that. when it comes to brexit, donald yesterday that he wants a special relationship with the u.k. but the fact is, as long as the u.k. is a member of the eu, they cannot have ,rade deals individually bilaterally with other countries. it has to wait until they have actually left the eu. that could be several years. guy: do you seriously think the u.k. will not be negotiating a u.s. until it
2:41 am
leaves the eu? it would be surprising if this relationship did not produce a trade arrangement. that would make brexit a more difficult situation for continental europe. >> the member countries have delegated to the eu. tore is no possibility negotiate a trade deal. of course, you cannot say anything about discussions going on but formal negotiation cannot happen. that would be against the eu relations. -- eu regulations. caroline: thank you very much indeed for your time. coming up on the show, donald trump's wall street policies -- is it the end of dodd-frank? we will discuss his pledge to dismantle the reform. we will be talking trade again. welill ttic be put at risk?
2:42 am
program, shopping frenzy gets underway as china enters an able market. stay with us. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:43 am
2:44 am
guy: -- caroline: welcome back to the
2:45 am
european open. let us get you up-to-date with the bloomberg business flash. here is juliette saly. juliet: a lance has said third-quarter profit rose i more than one third beating estimates. the company confirmed a target for full-year operating profit at 10 billion euros. pimco had its first quarterly inflows in more than three years with clients adding -- euros. it was helped by higher earnings in its insurance unit. rejected an approach from a belgian rival. the offer does not rise and officially good enough deal for its shareholders. they ended earlier merger talks in may. seesan sachs ceo said he few terrific assets to donald
2:46 am
trump asking dimon to serve as treasury secretary. blankfein says he would be a great treasury sector -- treasury secretary. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: thank you. let us pick up on that last story. sweeping pay limits on wall street. trying to do so by january. we know what happens in january. the government agencies are making last-minute adjustments to the measure to complete it within the next two months. the rule by the finance industry is that it is the last major unfinished piece of the dodd-frank act. we await further updates from the donald trump transition site.
2:47 am
find outiting also to who will be the next treasury secretary. the wall street journal is talking about a republican from texas. he is the chairman of the house financial services committee. he is not a great fan of dodd-frank. is dodd-frank dead, what would replace it? good morning. the banks have had quite a week on the idea that maybe we are going to see the regulatory burden lifted, rolled back, and we have a steeper yield curve. how much further to the banks have to run? >> it depends on how much further we think the yield curve will move. looking at there valuation rally in the european banks, you are some sort of relief rally. they were trading at lowe's. it is important to distinguish between those that have u.s. abroad -- u.s. operations and those that are not affected by
2:48 am
the dodd-frank. the is a big positive for european banks and banks like barclays that have business in america. wilbanksggregate, benefit generally -- will banks benefit generally? it feels like basel cannot go any further. the regulatory run which we have seen since 2008 has hit a high water mark. >> i would broadly agree with that. to be a bank investor at this point, you have reached peak regulation on both side of the the -- on both sides of pond. if you look at places like italy where they are attempting consolidation, that should be a positive for the market as well. caroline: let us draw our attention to what is happening in the u.s. treasuries. a phenomenal spike.
2:49 am
this steepening of the yield curve has been so quick and explicit -- is that what is driving the banks? >> i think you have a number of buyers on the sidelines waiting to see what was going to happen in the elections and what might happen going forward. you have a clearing -- clearer path now on the easing of regulations. i think this will only help the move in the treasuries. the steepness of the curve is a critical point, in particular the 10-to. -- 10-2/ . i think that is very important for banks in the future. they are still trading at all-time low valuations. caroline: sub one. barclays potentially would benefit. thanks with the u.s. operations.
2:50 am
-- banks with u.s. operations. >> the u.s. banks are a few years ahead. you have more confidence in the capital basis of those banks. they have comparable ratios but the assets within the u.s. banking system are of a high quality and that is not that ambiguous compared to the european peers. there is still a need to write down assets across the books. you will not see that coming through in cash. guy: we still want to understand what those assets will mean in terms of unwinding them. stay with us. great start to the conversation. we are minutes away from the european open. we will take a look at the movers in trade today. sincehas its best quarter 2013. those stories and more our next.
2:51 am
this is bloomberg. ♪
2:52 am
2:53 am
>> it is the first positive quarter for pimco. net in euros. it is the first positive. customers are valuing this strong franchise and the performance of pimco.
2:54 am
it is paying off and we are turning the corner. cfoline: comments from the speaking to bloomberg this morning. this is one of our key stocks to watch. called up 1.5 percentage points. keep an eye on pimco. finally, we see after more than three years, their first quarterly inflows. allianz profit is up 36%. is it time to start getting into these players as we see these yield curves steepening. freddie, bond funds had a great run. over the last few decades. is that coming to an end, do you think? >> it has to.
2:55 am
they are already yielding negative interest rates. you cannot go a lot further. think we are certainly near to the situation where there is little value in bonds. it is very hard to see the value in the sort of government bond funds in particular. caroline: in terms of use setting up new fund laterals. what our clients feeling? -- what are clients feeling? >> they are cautiously trying to i too much. they are much less cautious on bonds. asset allocation models are broken by the quantitative easing we have had for the last five years. clients do want participation in equity markets. but they want something to hedge
2:56 am
the risk. freddie, great stuff indeed. the market open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
guy: welcome to the bloomberg european open. bloomberg markets. i am guy johnson. in new york. she is in london. caroline has your morning brief. caroline: who is on donald trump's team? china enters a bull market. in 30n has its best week years. and the dow jones industrial hits a record. sees itswned pimco first inflows since 2013 with the treasury selling off and talk of trumpflation. guy: we just take you down to
3:00 am
the european open. let us show you what is happening. eight seconds to go. let us show you what is happening. we are not expecting fireworks. but this is what we are looking at this morning. -- i suspect ours are a little bit jaded. london market just dropping a touch at the moment. xd 8.27. -- 6827. looks like we are seeing a more cautious to the start of the day. we are just flirting with a flat line. caroline: i am focusing on how the sectors breakdown this friday morning open. we have seen such a run in metals. and a bull run in china. let us look at the miners. financials currently doing the trade, up 0.2%.
3:01 am
energy up 0.25%. equitiesmoving into cautiously. up 0.3% on the stoxx 600. the yield curve goes steeper. checking in on the gilt yields. picking up --elds clearly, yields picking up a little bit. keep an eye on u.k. gilt. i want to show you the disparity we are starting to see in the u.s. versus europe because u.s. treasuries is where the real run to of the selloff has been. inflation is on the agenda. we see this curve -- a space happening between german and u.s. yields.
3:02 am
yields have. climbed over the course of the week and we are starting to see that disparity grow. is money going to be flowing out of the u.s. more so than in germany? .lipping over to metals what a ramp-up for copper. relative strength index showing we are the most overboard on copper since 1986. usually, the technical signal -- it is time to get out if it comes below the red line. copper is seeing a 16% rally this week. let us look at one of the stocks that has been outperforming on the back of this. look at it outperform. what a ramp-up.
3:03 am
postal ramping up. rejecting the approach from the belgian mail service rival. sufficiently compelling for our shareholders. thank you very much. meanwhile, allianz up. profit jumping 36%. check out the yield story. u.k. 10 year yield climbing more the first.ce june guy: the bond market will have to think about what happens next. it is veterans day in the u.s. armistice day in the u.k. will be -- we will come back to that a little bit later. we reference to this earlier in terms of what has been happening with inflation and the bond market. theation is something that erratically should be good for equities going forward but this is a chart that takes the yield all the way back to paul
3:04 am
volcker. and then into the greenspan era as well. we see this declining care of lines. are we about here starting to break that trend? and what is the meaning of this for the investment community and for the corporate sector? donald trump's transition team launched a website outlining the president-elect's plans regarding health care, immigration, the financial sector and the energy sector. and what the regulations for those sectors will mean. how does big business feel about what is happening, trumpflation, and the regulatory story? here is what the ceos have to say. >> he will be pretty pragmatic. he is a businessman with a lot of experience in property development. he has run big projects. i think he will surprise on the upside and i think he will be a
3:05 am
good president. >> there is a big opportunity here when the government and the president wants to rebuild the infrastructure. >> the policy of tax reduction and getting rid of dodd-frank and replacing it with something else. fiscala of getting discipline. those are positive. there is a lot to be hopeful about. >> the media played a positive role in this campaign in the sense that it was ever present which media is today. did the media get it right in terms of predicting the outcome? deserves some scrutiny about the media and how they got it wrong. >> maybe it will not be in the u.s. context quite as bad as some people think in the medium term. in the short-term, the immediate impact, many companies will be faced with making some decisions. >> donald trump is pro-business and pro-america and he wants to
3:06 am
see companies grow and do well. and create jobs. caroline: that infrastructure is helping. allianz really surging this morning, trading up more than 3.8%. the reason is that they beat their profitability. this is the biggest move since -- seen it since june 20. market capitalization is up. a big deal. emco getting some inflows after three years. guy: i wonder what the next quarter will look like in terms of what will happen with the bond market going forward. we have sown you some charts about the long-term stories of bond markets. let us talk about inflation and what trumpflation could ultimately mean for the investment community. freddy is still with us on set in london. people are talking about a big
3:07 am
push in terms of infrastructure spending but the u.s. jobs market is already pretty tight. what does that mean for investments? policys an inflationary and you are just about to have a push through from commodity price inflation. wage inflation is coming through in america already which is broadly positive at a low level and in particular to solve the issue of a disgruntled working class in america. you have to be careful that it does not get out of hand. it could lead to the continuation of the fed rate hikes. a december rate hike seems very likely to me and people should be wary about how they are thinking about their asset allocation on the back of inflation. if inflation comes back, bonds are in more trouble than they are already. caroline: we are starting to see yields be more attractive.
3:08 am
what then happens to the stock market amid this inflationary cycle? >> it depends on where you get to. people keep calling for a 4% yield on the 10 year treasury as a normal level because it was like that during the greenspan era. if you look at the 30 year chart, it has been a straight line downwards. to me, 4% seems too high. if the treasury stays around 2.5%, you could still see a lot of attraction in high-yielding equities. i think you have seen a lot of the stables and the utility stocks selling off in europe as well. but ier has been hit hard think that is a temporary setback. it is a twin problem of the emerging market selloff on the donald trump victory. guy: how do we play european industrial? we spoke to siemens yesterday.
3:09 am
european industrials priced in euros --how do they fare in this next phase? >> i am sure he has a lot of kit he is willing to sell to them but looking at the valuation of european industrials, trading at margin, highs on a high you have already placed in all of the good news. and also even from here if donald trump does come out with an infrastructure plan, it would take many years for that number to come through. midtermit is probably bullish for the earnings outlook for the shares you have had all of the good news. -- insurersemens and banks are still leading the charge. freddie will stay with us. up next, we are talking about
3:10 am
pre-trump highs. any visibilityve as to what the fed will do? china enters ebola record as the dow jones industrial hits a record. are they getting added themselves? a week that made history. a truly historic week for the u.s. and the world. we look at the years to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:11 am
3:12 am
3:13 am
guy: welcome back. you are watching the european open. there 12 minutes into session. let us see how the markets are performing. we have seen quite a week. we are wrapping up on more of a subdued tone. the stoxx 600 is up by 0.4%. london is a laggard. the dax is driving ahead. what is moving the market? caroline: the banks are still leading the charge. the insurers are outperforming. looking at the stoxx 600 -- leading the charge is r.b.i. -- is ubi. 32 million euros. not a big month number but more
3:14 am
than expected. chryslerye on the fiat . 4.8%. donald trump seems to be helping the likes of fiat and gm. allianz up, the leader of the pack. 36% hike in profits. this as we see the belgian rival not offering a enough money they say. rejecting the approach from the belgian rival, not sufficiently compelling. let us get the bloomberg first news word. >> demonstrations against donald trump have a continued -- have continued across the u.s. >> we are all immigrants. hundreds of protesters gathered outside of trump tower
3:15 am
on fifth avenue. they chanted angry slogans. rudy giuliani has called the protesters a bunch of spoiled crybabies. donald trump has told his british counterpart that he wants to rekindle the kind of relationship that margaret and ronald reagan shared in the 1980's and he told prime minister theresa may that the u.k. is a special place. donald trump added that it would be the greatest possible honor to host her in washington as soon as possible. alibaba has broken last year's single day sales record. it wrapped up more than 91 .2 billion yuan in its annual shop at him. it enlisted top celebrities like kobe bryant to promote the spending blitz which dwarfed black friday and cyber monday in the u.s. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. bankthe federal reserve
3:16 am
president says the election of donald trump should not delay and interest rate increase next month. is voting member of the fmoc trying to assess the impact of the vote. breaks gridlock in washington. which has been a key complaint of how the economy has operated over the last six years when we have had divided government. when you do not have divided government, many are wondering what will happen and markets are taken aback which is natural. guy: we want to take you to what is happening in south africa. the rand is under pressure. appears this may not just be a localized story. i want to take you to my terminal to show you what has been going on with the carry trade over the last few days. the white line is the bloomberg emf carry trade index.
3:17 am
as you can see, the carry trade has been unwinding and unwinding very rapidly on the right-hand side of your screen. appears thislet me assume in se what is happening on the right-hand side. big moves to the downside. freddie is still with us. is the carry trade under real pressure? will the feds have to push rates higher? >> i think that is probably right and i think the currencies are getting hit by a lot of traders who are taking the obvious view that the emerging markets will have a tougher time under a donald trump regime not to mention the underlying weakness to a lot of their economies. this will persist longer and the critical thing is that the government bonds of these countries that have been sawed out as a safe haven for their yields will also be selling off. caroline: looking at some of the selloff happening across the
3:18 am
emerging market fx spectrum. the russian ruble -- russia still seems to be doing rather well. look at the south korean wan. the indonesian currency. if you go across to another key chart, you can see this is an emerging market get out when it comes to exchange traded. look at the amount we are seeing pulled out. the emerging market exposure is not what is wanted. but then you see china entering a bull market. orthat about miners separating china from the rest of the emerging market world? >> i think it is about the commodity rally. and it is being fueled in part by the recent moves of the chinese government to stimulate demand. i don't think it will last. if you look at the long-term correlation -- if you look at
3:19 am
the correlation between the asian currencies and the dollar, it is overvalued. asian do not see currencies reversing the current trend, i would argue that you have a long way to fall in the market. opec has had its largest month of reduction. i think from a supply demand perspective, monetary futures buying versus demand. at one of theok things donald trump might do moneywould be to bring held offshore by u.s. companies and repatriate that. similar to the homeland investment act we saw a post 9/11. i'm interested in the implications of how u.s. equities will perform versus global equities. one of the things that has driven u.s. equities has been by backs. we have seen that clearly and it is related to the credit market. is that plays till going to be
3:20 am
in and could it be exacerbated if we see some of that money rolling back into the u.s.? >> if he does allow companies somegoogle to repatriate of its money. i think you could see either investment with a decent rate of return on the home soil or a return of more cash to shareholders. i think it will be positive for the u.s. market. when he tries to combine it with a lower overall corporate tax rate, don't forget that the u.s. ratese of the highest tax , corporate tax rates in the world, that -- bringing that back down will increase profitability. caroline: we have managed to you thinkof you -- that metals and commodities could see a 25% slump going forward. if you look at the u.s.
3:21 am
potential he picking up, which sectors should we be looking at? >> other than the u.s. banks where i think you should be bullish, i think the u.s. consumer. one of the big threats to the world could be inflation, so you will see a better earning consumer. you have tightness in the labor market. i think wage inflation will increase. the multiples of spending will come through quickly. the consumer stocks tend to sell off when rates go up. the consumer stocks though have held up much better than a lot of the other rate sensitive stocks. believe that big tech like google has a place in someone's profile. the indiscriminate selloff seems to be second-guessing the market.
3:22 am
i think there could be some value in the big tech. guy: putting up this chart to reinforce that point. the selloff that has come through. left out ofe being the recent rally. so great to see you this morning, friday. thank you. up next, eu trade ministers are set to discuss how to handle a donald trump white house. we go to brussels next. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:23 am
3:24 am
3:25 am
guy: i want to take you to portland, oregon to the second night of protests taking place there. as we were watching these pictures a few moments ago, it sounded like the police were firing tear gas to disperse the crowd. we have the authorities in riot gear as they tried to contain this event taking place. we will come back to this. that maybeen a scene be more than most cities but nevertheless, we continue to see protests in many cities across the united states. this may be a step further than
3:26 am
that. caroline: this is the people's protest. the human reaction to the donald trump when in the election in the u.s. let us look at the fx reaction to donald trump's when, we still see pain in the emerging markets. it seems to be a dollar strength story. ism showing you what happening in terms of emerging market currencies. on the low side to have the you had the on, south carolina -- south african rand. the peso, another record low. we are currently off by 0.7%. risinglar-mexican peso to a record. you can see that this is not just what is happening in terms of the emerging market. shifting to major currencies. wonder if someone is out there executing a big basket trade. london liquidity is now part of
3:27 am
the story. it will be interesting to see how this will develop. we will speak to the world leading social trading network to get a take. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:28 am
3:29 am
3:30 am
caroline: we bring you live pictures from portland, oregon. it is half past midnight there and protests continue their for a second night. police are calling it a riot on the streets. several thousand protesters are taking to the streets in reaction to the election of donald trump. windows and car windows being smashed. s been declared a riot. u.s., this is the people reaction on the streets. what iset a sense of happening in terms of the political reaction. not just in the u.s. but on this
3:31 am
side of the atlantic. a meeting today in brussels to discuss the next step for the tt ip. eulier, we spoke to the trade minister. president-elect, we do not know what will happen. there is strong reason to that there will be a hold in ttip. nejra joins us from brussels. who will be there today? what is the focus? there seems to be a shift in the mood. i was about to speak to the foreign affairs minister for belgium but he had to go to the meeting. there was a flurry of activity behind me.
3:32 am
there are still cars arriving. economic ministers and trade representatives. earlier, i did speak to one of germany's representatives but first i want to turn to what we heard from the eu trade commissioner. she said earlier this morning to reporters here in brussels that there could be a suspension in the ttip negotiations. i believe it we have some sound. here is what she said. -- we new president-elect do not know what will happen. there is strong reason to believe that there will be a pause in ttip. the biggest be priority for the u.s. administration. nejra: there is a lot of uncertainty. they had the 15th round of negotiations, the eu and the u.s. at the beginning of october and the eu says it still wants a free trade agreement with the u.s.
3:33 am
when i spoke to the deputy economic minister for germany, he says that is what they are hoping for. how might this impact brexit thatiations -- and he said it will not impact it at all because they do those decisions separately. u.s., thee eu and the trade negotiations are very important. s biggesteach other' trade partners. $700 billion. in terms of the eu, who has the most to lose? germany. they export the most of any of the countries to the u.s. caroline: fascinating. foreign ministers gathering through the weekend and sunday and monday. let us turn our attention to china. guy: the top right-hand side of your screen. data coming out of china.
3:34 am
loan andot new aggregate financing data. both looked to be a little bit shy of the numbers we were expecting though the money apply, you're on here is little bit stronger at 7.2%. , 650 -- downoans from 1220. quite a big drop in terms of those numbers. we continue to watch what is happening in terms of the china financing story. as the chinese authorities try to figure out how to keep the economy going and maintain the political pressure that they want to do. at the same time as they understand that bubbles can be built. what will the relationship looks like between a donald trump white house and china. president obama met with his
3:35 am
successor yesterday at the white house just days after president obama warned voters that donald trump was danger with -- was dangerously erratic. donald trump tweeted about the meeting -- fantastic day. great chemistry. he ran out of characters? are just onybe they that kind of unofficial relationship already. details of what a donald trump presidency will look like continue to worry leaders across the globe. not only this sentiment and current behind the brexit vote but most recently also the results of the presidential election race a question of how much protectionism and isolationism will determine the
3:36 am
future political agenda. caroline: from brexit to a donald trump victory. how are these events being traded? and where is the money going? wonderful to have you on the show. there is anyse if trend. has there been a change in the appetite for risk? >> we are seeing more and more people switching positions to short. people are expecting the markets to go down. people were super surprised in the last 48 hours -- we are seeing volumes the same as what we saw after the brexit.
3:37 am
similar scenario. people are surprised. they do not know where the markets are going. with one big difference, the brexit was quite clear -- the pound was getting pounded. here, people were expecting the s&p to crash but it stayed the same. the only thing that really happened was a mexican peso getting pounded this time. and all of the rest is back and forth, back and forth. around the world from our office in russia we are getting feedback that they are very optimistic. things in russia are looking optimistic. as they expected a deal with the u.s. soon and maybe a better relationship now with the u.s. when we asked our offices in china how traders were reacting, i was told that they are mainly laughing and sharing funny things about donald trump. caroline: not taking things too
3:38 am
seriously there. guy: what will a donald trump presidency mean for traders? >> i think first of all, it means volatility will go up. that is generally good for trading and that is generally good for traders. it means things are going to get more interesting. i think everyone is looking forward for the next couple of tweets from donald trump to see if they affect the market and how they affect the market. and it is age culture change. as wel impact the markets have seen and the last two days. we just got a statement from our analyst saying -- let us make it great again. caroline: how many times can that particular phrase be repurposed. you are a social trading platform. it is amazing how much this u.s.
3:39 am
election has been socially oriented. how much facebook and twitter. much do you feel technology and social means of communicating has changed -- have changed of late? the entire election. represents a different type of narrative. he is talking to us in twitter at 3:00 a.m. in the morning just like every trader on our platform which is something we do not expect from the u.s. president. we are seeing more people from around the world interested in what is happening. i have never been so involved in the u.s. election. a lot of people outside of the u.s. feel the same way. they are gaining interest
3:40 am
through social networks, reading what is happening on twitter and facebook and we are seeing the impact on the markets. and that means it is happening faster. people are reacting to news faster. people are reacting to fake news faster which is very interesting and you need to constantly monitor what is happening out there and what are the opinions of people being informed. guy: we are not done yet. we have had brexit. we have the u.s. presidential elections out of the way. two big surprises. we have a series of events coming up in europe in the next 12 months. we look forward to the french election, the italian referendum. kinds ofpect these events to be major magnets in terms of trading on your platforms? definitely. around each of these events, a flock of interest from around the world to understand how this
3:41 am
impacts their trading behavior. a newt recently launched feature which enables our users from around the world to set up thematic investment funds around different scenarios. we had the donald trump win coffee fund. sure to pay so. long ruble. -- short peso. long ruble. you talked about the italian referendum. people are building coffee funds are around that. if the referendum passes, good for the market. if it fails, that for the market. people build positions around that. traders are making money out of volatility and each of these events is interesting for any of our traders globally. caroline: that is a fascinating take on what is happening in terms of investor mood. thank you very much a joining us on the set here in london.
3:42 am
he is here in london for a big tech event called nowhere. -- called noah. guy: we want to take you back to the scene in portland, oregon. the police are now advising the crowd that they have designated thatprotest as a riot and is due to criminal behavior. you can see tear gas being used to disperse the crowd. ais has been re-rated as riot. this is probably the most serious protest that has taken place since the victory of donald trump. we have seen protests in a number of cities, new york, for example that much more peaceful. this city is feeling the full force of this. these are live pictures from
3:43 am
portland, oregon. we will come back to the story in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:44 am
3:45 am
guy: 12:45 a.m. in oregon. this is what is happening in portland right now. -- this isin oregon on the other coast here in the u.s. riots happening right now. the pleas advising the
3:46 am
protesters and the last few minutes that they have now be rated what is cap -- that they have now rerated what is happening on the streets as a riot. we are watching some amazing scenes developing in this city as the people protest the election of donald trump. we have seen similar scenes but not as violent in other cities. protests have taken place in a number of places including here in new york. tower that this is taking it further. heavily geared up police operating in the city. they are in full riot gear. you can hear them talking about how people need to disperse. it has been an incredibly volatile week. let me show you what is .appening on the gmm function you have the option on the
3:47 am
drop-down to show you what has happened in the global market since the donald trump election. mover has had the biggest this week in more than 30 years. offbond market has sold really aggressively. the french five-year seeing the biggest move in terms of the deviation scores. the u.s. five-year really moving as well in terms of standard deviation. the dollar has been a big gainer . the euro coming down as well is the japanese yen. but the commodity story has been fascinating to watch. long copper, short gold. caroline, in terms of what we are seeing this friday morning, what is going on with some of those stock stories? caroline: one of the most sure did miners on the stoxx 600 doing well again today. we are seeing a flood of money coming into some of these minders on the back of what is happening with metals.
3:48 am
allianz doing well on the back of inflows into pimco. outperforming expectations. the belgian rival did not offer enough. we will be keeping a clear eye on what is happening in china. china coming out. the yuan trading at near six-year lows. credit expansion moderating. miners money moving into and the chinese overall stocks entering a bull market. the january lows. expansion is moderating particularly in property. the credit measure moderated last month as government ruled out efforts.
3:49 am
-- rolled out efforts. money moving into stocks. the miners helping chinese markets. today in china is also singles' day. alibaba breaking last year's singles' day record. bloombergs tom mackenzie joins us live from shenzhen. has a slowdown in the chinese economy -- it is not stopping the stock market and it does not seem to be stopping the shopping bonanza either. tom cole and some pretty eye-popping numbers. you can see them on the screen behind me. they just burst through $14 billion in sales. fast closing in on last year's record. and we still have around a little more than seven hours to go. $20his rate, they could hit
3:50 am
billion in u.s. dollars for online sales in less than 24 hours. international companies are interested in getting on board with this shopping day extravaganza. 14,000 international brands like nike and others. it is a litmus test as to how the sentiment of the chinese consumer. in september showed a pickup in retail sales of 10.7%. consumers remain bullish and this seems to point to that. alibaba has some controversy around it. in the u.s., there is an investigation into last year's numbers as to -- regarding concerned that some of the numbers were fake. guy: incredible numbers being posted. it will be interesting to see what next year's numbers will be. let us take you to what is
3:51 am
happening on the other coast of the united states. these are live pictures from portland, oregon. police have declared a riot. they are advising the crowd of this difference. it does affect the rules of engagement in terms of how the place operate in the city. we have seen demonstrations across the united states but this has been a step up this evening. it has only just gone midnight, just approaching 1:00 in the morning. we will watch to see how the situation develops. the donald trump team seems reasonably unconcerned judging by the reaction so far though i suspect we have not seen many tweets regarding what is happening in oregon tonight. comingre live pictures to you from portland, oregon. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:52 am
3:53 am
3:54 am
guy: this is what the scene looks like in washington, d.c. right now. that is notalm being replicated in the rest of the u.s. people areng that not exactly happy with the outcome. you can get a sense of that as we take you live now to portland, oregon on the other side of the united states where anti-trump protests have
3:55 am
ratcheted up to a riot. quite incredible scenes being generated here. it is just approaching 1:00 in the morning in portland, oregon. no signs that the situation is abating at the moment. this is a place that voted for hillary. voted overwhelmingly for hillary clinton as did california where we have seen protests in oakland and san francisco and in new york, a hillary clinton stronghold. people outside of trump tower. therennot get through because it is a security zone. a line of dump trucks. it is amazing on how it has transformed new york city. places where donald trump was not popular to begin with. it is hard to see where it goes from here. if you saw something popping up
3:56 am
in alabama or tennessee or ohio -- places that were strong for donald trump, it might be different. it will be interesting to see how he reacts. his twitter feed a little disappointing for a lot of people. guy: he probably has not had a chance to respond to the pictures we are seeing right now. this has been an escalation. he other protests have been largely peaceful. >> you would expect the president and the president-elect to be a voice of reason. let us calm down. instead, he seems to be trying to inflame it. thank you very much. you will continue to monitor the situation in oregon. you're looking at live pictures where the police have now declared the protest a riot. plenty more coverage coming up. it has been an incredible week
3:57 am
for the united states and the global market. we will wrap up our coverage on this program but surveillance continues next with tom keene and francine lacqua. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:58 am
3:59 am
4:00 am
francine: the emerging market routes even in concerns of capital outflow from weaker trade as commodities and european equities get a boost. bonds extend the selloff as treasuries see their worst week since 2009 on surging inflation expectations. a shanghai bull. trump is to crack down on the world's second-largest economy. this is bloomberg "surveillance ." i'm francine lacqua in new york, roughing up the week


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on