tv Best of Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg November 13, 2016 9:00am-10:01am EST
♪ emily: this is the best of bloomberg technology. coming up, markets saw a big lift after donald trump won the white house, though most in silicon valley lost the bet on the presidency. plus, what a trump presidency means for key issues in tech. chinese internet companies face a new reality after donald trump's surprise victory and we hear from the alibaba president. first, the lead in reaction, we
saw one of the biggest single day reversals in stock market history and the dow jones industrial average ending just shy of a record close. amazon, microsoft, and facebook shares dropped with speculation of what a presidency would mean for them. we break it down with an analyst and the global head of tech coverage. >> i do not know that anyone knows with a degree of confidence. anybody close to him will admit that they do not know exactly what he believes. it will be an interesting for years. obviously republicans won in all levels of the government. we should see less taxation and less regulation and improvement
and flexibility to protect startups is the highlight because government constrains innovation of technology and there should be a degree of freedom we haven't seen in a while. emily: that said, a lot of uncertainty especially around policy initiatives. brad feuded with jeff bezos on twitter. >> he campaigned as a populist but he is republican and surrounded himself with republicans and you do not know how much to take him on -- on his campaign trail word. he said at one point apple needs to bring business back to the u.s. and he talked about repatriation and these are things maybe silicon valley likes.
emily: interesting apple ended the day slightly up and you wrote that trump could be good for tech companies in the long term. >> what i meant was begging of the tax were up each a lot of the tech companies. apple has more than $100 billion outside the u.s. and you look at large tech companies that probably have more than a trillion dollars outside of the u.s. when that comes in, where does it go? you can invest that money back into the business and it will go into buybacks and m&a. you could get buybacks, which investors like and they can help the stocks.
you can get more dividends. a lot of those activities can come out of these decisions. emily: peter thiel doubled down on donald trump won a lot of silicon valley -- on hillary clinton. listen to what he had to say about why he supported donald trump. peter: i do not support the specific language trump used in every instance, but i think one thing that should be made -- distinguished is the media is always taking donald trump literally. they never taken seriously, but always literally and a lot of the voters who vote for donald trump take him seriously, but not literally. emily: his comments about taking donald trump seriously, but not literally have been repeated over and over again as people have been digesting the results. you has so many people in silicon valley coming out and viscerally attacking donald trump. reid hoffman told me it would be a terrifying disaster and the venture capitalist telling me
hitler's was basically elected and he is funding a secession campaign. keith, what does this mean for the relationship between silicon valley and the white house? do you think there could be to grow up and they cannot take partisan opinions without consequence and donald trump will be the one who delivers the hammer.
emily: eight years have been sent's building -- building a bridge -- have been spent building a bridge. well all that work beyond on? >> that bridge -- the smoke is rising. your credibility as a venture capitalist is dependent on the photograph of you and president obama that you had in your office lobby and donald trump does not even have email. he has not embraced tech so the future of those initiatives is in doubt and i think the community has to get serious now and maybe a trump administration does too about rebuilding.
emily: you were his right hand demand at paypal, does peter thiel become the center of the silicon valley-white house connection? how does he revealed the bridges with -- with all the people who despise the decision he made? >> i think now he will look like a genius. he is half brilliant at half crazy and his art is between the two. he took an asymmetric bet and it will pay dividends for him and i suspect he winds up in washington with a substantial appointment with a lot of power. >> he said he didn't see himself doing that. >> well you want to do that enter you get nominated. emily: do you think he would work for someone else? >> i think chairman of the fed or secretary of the treasury. that is how wall street works, you take a bat and you get paid. emily: obviously the tech
industry has been blamed for eliminating jobs, building the future of ai and robots and now donald trump is saying coal miners, don't worry. what is it mean for jobs? >> when you have jobs at the cutting edge of technology they are still in the u.s. i think tax and cash repatriation would be very good for the industry here. what i would say is that some of these decisions that are made to give tax relief can create jobs and that would be good for the industry. emily: that was bloomberg's global head of tech and keith rabois.
of the biggest losers of the campaign was polling. almost all pollsters and political insiders and predictive models had hillary clinton rolling into the white house. popular sites showed her with a 75% chance of taking it all and that was one of the more conservative assessment. how did big data get so wrong? keith rabois joins us and the former policy director for david cameron. >> there are two types of failure on the data front, in the polling, the polling models basically missed two big groups of voters and one was the secret trump voters, those could be people who were basically going to support donald trump but in response to the moral shaming on people on the other side they did not want to admit it and the other type of voter they missed were those who were invisible
previously because they had not participated in politics because they didn't believe any vote would make a difference and so there was new trump voters who voted for the first time believing he was a different kind of leader who might shake things up. the other big failure was in the turnout and this is the real heart of what i think went wrong with the clinton campaign is they had this incredibly sophisticated data-driven machine to turn out the votes in very specific ways and places, but it turns out that if you do not have a message and a leader people really believe in all the sophisticated data will not get you the results you want. emily: do you think some of the voters were on reddit? steve: i am sure they were on reddit and clearly there is methodology with the polls that were done if you spend any time on reddit in the last year, last
night's results were not surprising. we have a lot of users that support both candidates, but the users per donald trump on reddit were much more engaged than other users. on average we saw donald trump supporters vote six times more often on reddit then supporters of other candidates so that engagement i'm sure translated directly to turn out and the results last night. >> if a product is broken marketing cannot fix it. emily: have they make sure this doesn't happen again? everyone was shocked. >> almost every election you see this with the polls. for the reasons you give in the way people are engaging which each other in society they are much more fluid in their views and i wonder if the whole thing is out of date.
one thing i would say is there is a way of looking at the failure of the marketing machine in a positive way, not necessarily in terms of the outcome, but if we go to a world where it is not just about grinding the vote through sophisticated targeting and soulless mechanistic approach, that it actually forces candidates to inspire people and develop a plan that people really can believe in and not just relying on data-driven techniques and that might lead to a more healthy political system all around. emily: it was partly driven with concerns around immigration and trade and that is why we believe he got elected. it is something people in silicon valley feel strongly about. google and elon musk were created by immigrants.
what do we think about the -- what do we think it mean on the effect on silicon valley? >> i think it will cause a relaxation of immigration. about a decade ago there was -- allow anybody who has a phd or a technical degree to immigrate freely. democrats and obama linked it to immigration for mexico under what is called comprehensive immigration reform and i think you will see the policies split back apart so republicans will pass bills that allow people with skilled degrees to immigrate freely and there will be a more controversy and -- much russell discussing about -- emily: obviously you have a lot of engineers from other countries. >> one dimension in which we compete is talent.
we need access to the best talent and we have lost people because of the h1v process. >> this is something we wrestle with because the impact of high levels of low skill immigration on working people is really tough and that is a serious thing you cannot ignore because it benefits particular parts of the economy were it is not a problem. getting the balance right will be something they will have to strike. i have heard them talk about for example the craziness of educating people at universities like stanford. i ever donald trump say that. i think that while it is not at all clear the direction it will
be taking, i think there are grounds for optimism. emily: we kept the conversation going with reddit ceo and got their take on social media playing in the presidential election. >> what technology has done is removed the role of the gatekeepers and intermediaries from eliminating travel agents to eliminating other third parties and now media does not have the role where it can screen and filter because people will talk to each other directly whether they do it on reddit or twitter and that will change the conversation because people who used to control the conversation and structure the conversation do not exist anymore and that will fundamentally change the rules and the kinds of debates people are participating in. in history class we talked about the nixon-kennedy debate and how
kennedy probably won the election because nixon was sweating too much during a debate which is a ridiculous way to choose a president. anytime you have a new platform, people who adopt the new platform of you who do not will thrive and people who -- people who do not will suffer. emily: there is an argument that facebook is making more editorial decisions. i saw one article that said facebook is harming our democracy and they should admit it. if you think about the fact that so much the news we are reading we see the f facebook -- we see via facebook. some things those things are click bait-y or wrong and inaccurate and that is what people are watching and reading on face book.
much as 10% after they are recalling 2500 of the new drones. a small number have been losing power midflight. they say no injuries or property damage have been reported and customers can return for a full refund. in the recall deal is another blow to the company's already dim prospects for the holiday season. after months of campaigning donald trump overcame all odds and became the 45th president-elect of the united states. the new position comes with a number of responsibilities including control of the nsa. this is a presidential campaign filled with hacking, primarily focused on the democratic party. brian white joins us along with keith of coastal ventures to address what private and cyber security will look like under president-elect trump. >> i think first we can all take a deep breath because there will not be an enormous amount of change, but what he said is he
wants to put a task or's in place to look at these issues. that can be expected of any candidate and i think the second is there could be more offense of activities and that is probably the one we need to watch closely because particularly post russia is that there have been some bertelli -- retaliations of late. it is been reported that we gained access to their infrastructure so the question is will that continue or will he want to use cyber offense more often or be more disclosing of the capabilities. emily: so you are saying the u.s. is going to hack rationale? >> i am not saying that. the question i think is on the table in regards to president trump and what may transpire is how will he use cyber offense? more than necessarily privacy because i do not see him making
emily: do you worry for our safety? >> if you look at president before, nixon clearly abused his powers. i think there will be a lot of -- there has been a lot of democrats and liberals ignoring the concepts of the constitution and limits on the executive branch that obama has pushed very far and i think there will be a consensus to pull back what the executive branch is allowed to do. emily: president couldn't -- president putin congratulated donald trump on the wind. how much do you think the hack influenced the outcome of the election? >> i will leave that to the political prognosticators. i will stick on security.
what was interesting about it is the fact that it looks like a foreign intelligence service went ahead and partnered with an organization such as wikileaks to disclose information. emily: and got away with it thus far. or accomplish what they had hoped. >> i think that is where speculation comes in, what we should focus on is what that means going over it and i think that is partly what we will consider -- continue to see. cyber will continue to be used as a tool. we are a know people are being targeted inside organizations to take sensitive data because the argument is someone internal has access. they were gaining information and that can happen more and more. emily: the u.s. relationship with russia has been incredibly tense. what do make of a potentially friendlier future? >> i am not sure being friends
with russia under the current leadership is a good idea. i think russia andputin has some bad ideas and somebody needs to stand up to them. emily: could donald trump force companies to hand over more personal data? >> it appears as if he will be more pro-law enforcement and he could be more aggressive going forward. i think we have to remember there are other branches of government that need to be engaged and enable him to be more aggressive and he would have to get a subpoena approved to gain access. i think this is an idea where senator warner and the commission to study encryption further comes in and i could see that gaining legs. of all the priorities coming up, going after and changing the way encryption is is probably not at
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you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. emily: welcome back. alibaba held its single day shopathon. the event has become a barometer of chinese consumer sentiment offering clues on the health of the chinese economy and its largest online retailer. retailers took notice. we caught up with the alibaba resident from china as the accident was underway. >> it's highly unlikely that we will continue to grow at six to percent each year because the absolute number is becoming so large that that would be difficult to do. as you can see, we are at least 30% higher than last year.
it looks like we will end up between $18 billion and $17 billion. that's a 9% depreciation in the remembyi. the real opportunity is that we are only penetrating about 10% of the china retail market on offline online so there is huge potential growth and that chinese market. ali baba emily: president elect trump said he would end trade agreements around the world. you worked at goldman sachs and you have traveled the world, what would a donald trump presidency and these policies he is indicating mean for alibaba and china?
>> these are the two largest economies in the world and for them to work together is what will be necessary not only for the benefit of the two countries but for the rest of the world. i am highly confident that's the direction both countries will have. emily: bloomberg reported that the donald trump trade policy could pose the biggest threat to alibaba of all the chinese technology giants. how would alibaba respond to potential trade terrace or sanctions or a trade war? >> the way we are set up is that we don't actually sell that much
product in the united states. the number one beneficiary of our global shopping festival, the u.s. has the largest number of brands selling products to the chinese consumer and other consumers around the world. it's hard for me to understand or imagine a reason why we would not want that to continue. it's great for the brands and it's great for retailers like macy's and costco and it's fantastic for job creation and wealth creation and all the things that many presidents are focused on. emily: the sec has been looking into single day data your reported last year. how are you changing your accounting practices as a result? >> we are not changing our accounting practices. we think the way we present our numbers whether it's single day or our regular quarterly report is accurate and in accordance
with the rules and regulations. the sec census -- the sec census the guidelines and we covered that. we feel very good about what we are doing and people have asked how we account for the gmb that is generated on 11/11. we have independent auditors where we record the financial and alipay and any recorded sale is in the numbers and then we follow the procedures put in place by ywc. we feel good about our numbers. emily: you are in charge of increasing the alibaba global presence. any chance that single day might be held outside of china as early as next year? >> jack was asked that question a few minutes ago when he was addressing the chinese media.
he said in the future, a fully expect to do that. we have a huge job ahead of us to connect so many great brands from developed markets and around the world to chinese consumers. the rest of my focus is the rest of asia and i will take many years to accomplish. emily: coming up, our conversation with walt disney ceo eiger. all episodes of bloomberg technology are live streaming on twitter. this is bloomberg. ♪
million visitors for the first year. we would be happy with the -- that number but we are not providing guidance there. about 50% of the people visiting come from outside the shanghai region. that is a big surprise to us. we thought it was going to be well above 75% initially that came from shanghai. the fact that it is so that once leads us to believe that word-of-mouth on this and the intent to visit from well beyond shanghai is very high. this has become suddenly not a local product but a national product in china, and national tourist destination, which is what shanghai is. that's really positive. david: one of the strengths of your company is the range of assets you have. if you hit and miss, you can hit with another one. media companies have gotten a lot of it tension because there are a lot of successes with large companies. there is a question of subscriber numbers on espn. what rate are you losing subscribers? >> we have been eyes wide open about what has been going on in the television business overall. we have seen a lot of disruption and people are consuming tv on new platforms in new places all stop mobile has become important.
we were candid a ago about what we were seeing regarding the espn subs and we saw losses and some of it came from cable light rumbles that did not have espn in them. we decided to embark on a campaign to make sure that espn was included in any new light bundles that launched and we have been quite successful in negotiating deals with distributors, particularly new ones, to make sure espn is included in the new package is coming out. we are heartened by a slight a basement in the loss of sobs due to the light bundles and the launching of these new digital plot arms which we think provide a great user interface and a very -- and are very mobile friendly. espn is great as far as programming and live sports is really popular. while there are some challenges due to some of the disruption we have seen, we actually believe there are some solutions and answers to some of the questions people have had about what's going on with espn and we feel good about our prospects. david: with the at&t/time warner deal, that's full center.
does disney need to own the distribution of digital platforms or not? >> i look at the at&t/time warner merger as a distribution company needing to on content as opposed to a content company needing to own distribution. i will not comment on whether those synergies work or not will stop it echoes what we have seen for many years and that is content is king. if you are a distribution platform today and you don't have great content, you better figure that out. the consumer is far more into sitting content and how they get it although that's important as well. what we would like to a compilation is to get closer to our customer. there are tools that exist that mine user dater and improve the user experience with
customization and personalization and are more tailored and contextual in advertising. it also gives the distributor or owner of the content and opportunity to monetize under more compelling circumstances. one of the reasons why we made the investment is we like bantech which is an avenue that gets us close to the company and gives us the ability to mine that data and grow our business and we will continue to look with an open mind of those opportunities. we don't necessarily have to own just for you shin, we are doing well without it. would we like to have the kind of distribution that solves the problem or provides us with the opportunity i just described? yes. david: one of your strengths is you go to scale and you don't like to do things in a small
way. $1 billion you paid for bamytech so is that a not to take you to scale? >> very good question. i don't know the answer to that. it's a step in the direction of achieving scale whether he gets us to the kind of scale we need, it's premature to answer. we have not launched the espn branded product on it yet. it's an important step. david: this has been a remarkable week not only because of your earnings but we elected a new president that surprised a lot of people. it's early going but the way you plan ahead, what are your first thoughts about how president trump could affect the walt disney company? >> first of all, so far so good in terms of transition even though it's early. both the president elect and
president obama have approached this really smartly. be cordial, be open and understand the most important thing is america, not one party or another and not one ideology or another. let the gentleman about it and that's what they are doing and that's great for the country. for the country to see that, it instills confidence in our country and faith of the future is good even if your ideology is not represented in the next president. i like what i have seen so far and i think the country is reacting well. david: you are a student of the media. it's not too soon to start asking ourselves about the role of the media in this election? it strikes me that this is a different media that existed even four years ago or eight years ago. certainly, donald trump took full advantage of that in terms
of ring able to get access to cable channels but also in social media. is the media starting to think about its role in future elections and what role it should be playing as the fourth estate? >> there is a lot of handwringing about the media this week and its role in the election. i think that handwringing is missing the point. the media today does not look anything like the media of yesterday. we are living in a world where the sheer definition of media, not the definition of what the industry creates but the definition the people create, is extremely different than what it used to be, how we get our news and what we consider news and
how information travels, l festa travels. it's vastly different. i would argue that the media played a positive role in this campaign in the sense that it was ever present which media is today, it was cameras on an voices on everything that went on. everything was exposed. everything was subject to scrutiny by the new media. that cannot be a bad thing. does the media get it right predicting the outcome? no, that deserves some scrutiny. how did they get it wrong? i don't think the manner in which the campaign was covered was necessarily something that deserves criticism. you can be reflective about it. that's fine. media today does not look anything like it did certainly 10 years ago when i started 42 years ago at abc. it's different and i think it's time for those that follow the media from a critical perspective accept the fact that the media they are following today is vastly different than
the media they use to follow or than they think they are following. emily: one stock that got up those from the donald trump election was sprint. still i had come our interview with the blackberry ceo john chan and what his thoughts on what a donald trump win means for business. this is bloomberg. ♪
emily: the alternative energy stocks saw a drop after the election donald trump. is a longtime climate ange denier who has vowed to undo cln energy. tesla shares slid off the news along with solar city and others. this is one week before tesla and solar city shareholders vote to approve the $2 billion merger. technology leaders are speculating on what a donald trump president means for business. i sat down with john chen and began by asking what it means for blackberry and business. >> this came out of nowhere. it's pretty shocking. emily:: what does it mean for blackberry?
>> i am an optimist so i think about it in a good way. it's reality. it happened so we need to make the best out of it. nobody really knows what he will do next. if he is really pro-business and a small government, less regulatory, it will actually be good for not only the tech industry but for thinking -- but for tanking and many different industries. it very much depends on who he taps for the people who surround him and support him. i hope they are moderates. emily: i know you are a registered republican and worked with president bush and you said you are an immigrant and you would not have voted for trump.
>> i am not going to tell anybody who i voted for but i remain truthful to the fact that eating an immigrant, it was problematic. emily: given that so much of the technology industry is built on immigrants and skilled workers who come from other countries, how do you think a president trump could impact the workforce? >> again, i could be wrong but i think his position is more deal driven. the reason why the these is never cleared the congress is because everybody in washington wants to link this to this illegal immigrant issue. it never got through the voting process. emily: donald trump says he will end the hib.
>> people have set a lot of things in the political election process. i think it's impractical. i think the visa would hurt the country in a profound way. if he sits down and looks at stack and i hope he is a business man enough to do so, he will know that ending h1b will literally hurt across the board for the tech industry, biotech, i.t.. i hope we don't get to bed point all stop emily: president bush appointed you to the presidents access council. how do you think resident trump will impact u.s.-china relations?+++
>> that's an interesting thing. i think it will be rocky in the beginning. i believe it gives an opportunity to restart a different type of narrative and dialogue. it might not be as bad at the end. we have been running the same framework. they call it containment. we have been running that dialogue for better than a decade or more. donald trump indicated on his website that one of his top priorities is to declare china as a currency manipulator, that's what he said. no president has done that. if he had -- if he goes to do it, he will create a lot of tension. i think the chinese will sit down and work those things out
with the u.s. it might surprise all of us and it might be a better deal. i hope i am not overly optimistic. emily: he could make a better deal? >> in china, there is a problem opening and broadening our reach in the chinese market. it goes back to the old way of being protective. maybe its economic drivers or other things. i think there might be an opportunity there. we have to look at it that way because it's reality. emily: he said he will and the
number of trade pacts. with china, there are concerns that it could lead to a trade war. emily: how likely do you think that is? >> i don't think so, it hurts everybody. i don't think anybody is that dumb. what do i know? if you want to be logical and a business person, you look at the well-being of everybody including your own people. a trade war would be devastating. it would the whole world into recession that would be hard to get out of. we don't have any more weapons left. the easing of funds are done. there is no growth around the world. starting a trade war right now is the worst time it could possibly happen. emily: my exclusive interview and that does it for "the best of bloomberg technology." tune in for our latest episode of studio 1.0. youtube is passing its tenure mark. this is bloomberg.
>> did you feel that there was a glass ceiling? kenneth: there were people that said to me, i do not think a black person could ever become a ceo. >> i said i cared a great deal about them and their families. david: somebody bought a work of art. was that to get points? do you ever leave home without your american express card? kenneth: i never leave home without it. and when i leave home, it is always with me. >> would you fix your tie, please? >> people would not recognize me