Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  November 28, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EST

12:00 pm
david: from bloomberg's world headquarters, here is what we are watching. mr.'s fly to moscow, and officials in vienna start more talks to try to salvage a deal on production cuts. and the president-elect alleges millions voted illegally. it is cyber monday, the biggest online shopping bonanza. we speak with the ceo of wayfair to see if trading will increase. for now, abigail doolittle joins us now. abigail: first down day in u.s. stocks in five days. this after the three major averages closed at record highs to the dow and the s&p 500 had been on a four-day streak of putting in record highs, the first since 2014.
12:01 pm
perhaps investors taking a breather after the record highs. oil andgy complex -- gas trading higher. oil up more than 2.5%. natural gas on its six-day hold for a row on a december. investors hoping opec will hammer out a supply cut deal. if we go into the bloomberg and look at g #btv 5128, this is a chart on interest and oil going back to 2000. we see the number of contracts that have changed hands each day are near the highs going into the hopes for this first supply cut deal in eight years. we will have to see if that comes through wednesday. as for an area of weakness, we are looking at the banks. citi andower eyes
12:02 pm
sfl, thego says the more than 10%. and finally, we are looking at arbitrage in under armour. under armour is getting a nice is, but under armour class c up nearly 9%. the company will turn ua into "uaa." they will take the under armour now class c and put it under the traditional symbol of "ua." does not, the class c have voting rights, but the b holds most of the voting rights.
12:03 pm
so it is more valuable than investors previously thought. vonnie: thanks. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. emma chandra has more. emma: abc news reports one suspect is dead after an including a shooter at ohio state university. wtvn in columbus reports nine people were hospitalized. two are in stable condition. no details on the other seven. shelter in place warnings have been lifted and investigators say the senior secured. classes have been canceled. the death of fidel castro have raised questions what the president elect will do about u.s. policies toward cuba. on twitter, trump says if cuba is not willing to make a better trade deal for its people, cubans, and americans, and the u.s. as a whole, he will terminate the deal.
12:04 pm
wisconsin election officials are expected to meet to discuss a possible timeline for a recount of the presidential vote. recounts are also possible in pennsylvania and michigan. this follows revelations that hillary clinton leads the national popular vote by it close to 2 million ballots. donald trump won the electoral college votes. -- ministers tried to remove zuma if the president does not quit. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. david: -- vonnie: i just want to point out what is happening with the markets. the dow down one quarter the --
12:05 pm
a percent. health care stocks are leading the way. but the vix is important today. 13. above it has been falling most of the day. vonnie: --david: we will look at the "bloomberg markets" deals report. in focusg media deals as time inc. rejected a takeover from bronfman. john chachas is a managing advisor at methuselah capital advisors. he advised clear channel on its $18 billion buyout. he is begin with alex sherman. alex: i want to dedicate the segment with the divide between traditional and new journalism. on a processsed
12:06 pm
that takes many months. in hindsight, d second-guess the strategy at all? -- in hindsight, do you second-guess the strategy at all? there was a lot of public disclosure about what our client wanted to do. it is a shame it took as long as it did. the outcome speaks for itself. i think in the end, the news industry and print in particular, will continue to go through substantial changes that necessitate consolidation and horizontal consolidation. is it a target itself? john: there are people that make lots of noise about these companies. when they make it known, they make it known. alex: david mentioned time.
12:07 pm
is time one of the companies lumped in with those publishing companies? is a lot of speculation that anyone in print, there's a lot of changes. the boards of these companies have to look dutifully at well-financed proposals that create shareholder value. they are going to have to decide if they want to turn down cash bids. there are times when that is warranted. possibilitieser that create lots of synergy, hundreds of millions of dollars. i think investors in these companies will demand the boards be really scrupulous in their analysis. analysis isneral traditional media companies have failed because they did not get into digital media early enough. i want to show this graph.
12:08 pm
it shows based on analysis, the growth in digital media is all in google and facebook. if you look at the graph, everyone else combined is actually losing shares. correct, doess is this mean digital media is a disaster of a business for every other company? john: it is an interesting graph. wehink what it validates is have seen 15 years of transition from traditional assets and we have seen the emergence of a couple real giants, who already have massive market share among nowtal ad spend and are getting a massive amount of growth in digital ad spend. if no one else is growing, maybe we have hit a new plateau, where the media has changed. so the "new york times" and
12:09 pm
newyorktimes online. your digital businesses have a piece of that, but it may just be a piece and it may not be the nirvana that everyone thought. i have to do this for you -- these are my snapchat glasses -- alex: keep those on. john: these other things young people want. if that turns into a fantastic business or not as an ad medium, the jury is out. alex: can i just where these for the remainder of the interview? for $1000. there is a line out at 58th street where you can buy one. alex: the trouble election cast doubt into does the traditional media have any teeth anymore. cast outump election
12:10 pm
into does the traditional media have any teeth anymore? are these companies actually in danger of becoming more irrelevant and therefore losing value because the general country has decided they have lost faith in the? m? john: i think you will see case studies in business school, entire white papers written on this election. the judicial license news organizations, as well as broadcast news organizations, such as your own, cnn in particular, they really had a comeuppance. i think there is a distinct possibility that the reason the eets get aslect's tw much attention, even when they are not grounded in information that supports them, is i am not sure the consumer cares anymore. the consumer has been fed a steady diet of news and narratives exactly for their demo or their age or their
12:11 pm
ethnicity or religious orientation by these organizations. so the consumer may be thinking he is not telling the full truth, but are they telling the full truth either? looking at the election, you have to have some respect for that. how is it possible that such a vast number of news organizations, that purport to have such posters, fundamentally missed the election by a lot? they got there but -- their butts kicked. we are in some really unchartered territory. managingn chachas, director of melissa -- of methuselah capital advisors. vonnie: i just want to say not only those glasses will change the results of the 49ers game. sorry about that. coming up, donald trump will meet with retired u.s. general
12:12 pm
david petraeus today. could he be the next u.s. secretary of state? this is bloomberg. ♪
12:13 pm
12:14 pm
vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn. david: i am david gura. time for the business flash samsung electronics announced it will try -- it will announce ways to change shares. issung of if there designated as have been talking about investor overhaul proposals. rates afterterest the election of donald trump may
12:15 pm
far, according to prudential's manager. hold growth in interest rates in check. leon cooperman camera the billy cooperman,d -- leon -- investors,ording to who say cooperman told them he anticipates his insurance will cover all of the expenses. that is the bloomberg business flash. isnie: the president-elect back in new york. his transition team says he is meeting with former cia head david petraeus. joining us now is margaret talev.
12:16 pm
the four-star general had to leave under a cloud. could he be considered? >> it is a really interesting question. he could pave the one question is how much pushback with that get from democrats? perhaps it does not matter, given the composition of the senate and the confirmation process, but as a political energy given how much donald trump put into criticizing hillary clinton for her use of a private email server, david petraeus is widely respected across the aisle for his oversight of two conflicts, both the war in afghanistan and iraq, and has a lot of foreign-policy experience, a lot world.act across the david: what could this mean for mitt romney who was, as of last week, reportedly in the front running to be secretary of state? to thet: it is important
12:17 pm
member that donald trump is scheduled to meet with mitt romney. that would happen tomorrow. it appears there is some schism world donald trump's about which direction to go. it is hard to say precisely where the president-elect's mind is at this point, but david petraeus would be a strong counter candidate to mitt romney. and there is a lot of pushback and the core trump support group. against romney. but romney still has many fans in republican politics. vonnie: in terms of hawkishness, rate them. ?ho is more hawkish than whom and does it matter? margaret: they both have completely different experience. the romney is more of a businessman and has contacts in that world.
12:18 pm
david petraeus more of a military man who has contracts in that world. there are a couple of things to keep in mind. one is how heavily does donald populate his cabinet with either active or retired military generals? another is precisely this question about how much power the secretary of state would wield. under president obama, his secretaries of state have ownmpted to start their version of foreign policy, but the national security council has a strong hand in shaping it. that has been the truth since richard nixon. -- and there are other potential candidates as well. david: you took a trip through twitter stream, and you see him reacting to reports that jill stein, the
12:19 pm
green party candidate, would pay for recounts in wisconsin. what are the next steps there? does this move outside of wisconsin? margaret: it is interesting to see how the trump transition team is responding. saieh that what jill stein is doing is a shiny object, pay no attention to that. the question is what steps would a trump just been -- justice department do once he takes office? vonnie: can you tell us why hillary clinton's campaign will get on board with this? margaret: it appears hillary clinton's campaign felt they had a better chance to monitor this once jill stein made it clear it would progress, but it runs counter to her campaign message, which was that the results speak for themselves. vestigaes of the clinton
12:20 pm
ges ofgn -- of the vestig the clinton campaign trying to say they will have a hand in this. this is bloomberg. ♪
12:21 pm
12:22 pm
vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn. david: i am david gura. opec ministers are trying to salvage a deal on production cuts. foundations of the deal are looking shaky. villa biter -- the lumbar return buiter spoke earlier today. willem: it is not just the usual suspects disagreeing.
12:23 pm
in the background there looms a likely increase in u.s. production as to regulation, fuelially in fossil leading to a boost in u.s. production. so as far as i can see, it is hard to see a successful and enduring outcome of this freeze or cut, whatever they try to achieve. >> even if you do have a freeze or cut, whatever it is they come with, do you think we see oil prices low enough to remain stimulative to the global economy? it depends on what causes it. if there is a boost in supply, it will be's derivative. if it is weak demand, it is a reflection of weakness. if the u.s. starts producing significantly more, i think we
12:24 pm
see weak oil prices. if not, we could see at this level or even higher. it depends on what the u.s. does and whether opec will get its act together. cartels are notoriously fickle beasts. >> how much of this is political and how much is economic? in respect to u.s. production, how big of an effect does the president-elect have if he says let's drill more? willem: it is huge. this is a president who aims to deregulate. there are there controls -- and there are other controls that have limited mining. as al will be boosted result of him being president. that should be reflected in prices, especially when we get to 2018. >> so when you look at the energy landscape now, whether be
12:25 pm
shale production in the u.s. or opec, and you try to way that other economic factors around the globe, how important is the price of energy, at this point, in terms of your calculus of economic growth? willem: it is not my major concern. i am more concerned that peace reigns in the international trading field and we get the kind of fiscal boost that markets in this country seemed to have are ready internalized. if that works, then the price of other energy sources will, of course, be lifted alongside. a highly successful overground --ld be damaging to economic
12:26 pm
david: enough to reverse trump trade? willem: no. think it is too deeply rooted to get kicked out and we will have to wait to see what actually happens in the way of tax cuts, infrastructure , and, of course, the tax cut. the markets are assuming the best. david: willem buiter, earlier today. vonnie: coming up, wayfair's ceo niraj shah. this is bloomberg. ♪
12:27 pm
12:28 pm
12:29 pm
♪ bloomberge from headquarters, i'm david gura. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." >> there was an attack at ohio
12:30 pm
state university. abc news is reporting one suspect is dead. abc is siding the columbus department of public safety. affiliate in columbus are reporting nine people hospitalized. a spokesperson said injuries in the attack include stab wounds and being hit by a vehicle. officials say the scene is secure. classes have been canceled for the day. president-elect donald trump is seriously considering retired to bel david pretorius secretary of state. he plans to meet with him this afternoon at trump tower in new york. that is according to a senior official with the transition. the celebrated four-star general left in a cloud for sharing documents during instrumental affair. the man accused of killing nine black parishioners will act as his own attorney. dylan roof came against his
12:31 pm
lawyer's advice and the judge said he would reluctantly accept the 22-year-old's unwise decision. prosecutors are seeking the death penalty. that thedenying computer network suffered a cyber attack, possibly sponsored by another country. officials said the attack was viewed as a crisis. a defense ministry official says the report is not true. they said the ministry is a target on the tax -- for tax on a daily basis. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, in more than 150 news bureaus across the world. thank you. i wanted to give you a quick look at the u.s. majors. the dallas down 32 points -- the
12:32 pm
dow is down 32 points. nasdaq is down .2% of a percent. tramadol -- let's go to abigail doolittle. abigail: shares of time magazine are surging and on pace for their best day since two and half years. -- since 2.5 years. fact ijected a bid access industries representing a 30% premium from friday's close. below thet 33% stock's all-time high. they believe the company will release shareholder value. look at time revenue -- the bulk is from print ads and we see a broken up pipe between subscribers and others. the small part of this revenue
12:33 pm
pie is coming from digital, which is amazing considering they are making more money from the newsstand than from digital. they're hoping to boost it up, but they are straddled with lots of debt. another big winner is cognizant technology shares, nicely higher on pace for their best day since a company wasfter in a letter outlining a path that could take the stock $90 per share, more than 50% higher. year foren a rough cognizant technology. the question is whether or not that $80 to $90 per share will help? suggest thaty upside is a potential. this is a five-year chart. you see a beautiful -- we see a beautiful uptrend. the stock is back above the
12:34 pm
moving average. paving the path for the stock to climb higher up toward that $80 to $90 per share affiliate management. vonnie: thank you, abigail doolittle. david: it has been a tepid kickoff to the holiday shopping season. consumer spent less than average on black friday, but could cyber monday turn things around. never go is the ceo and founder -- niraj shah is the ceo and founder of wayfair. this is a data has bled into the thatnd -- this is a day has bled into the weekend. niraj: cyber monday is the biggest day of the holiday season. starts at theason end of october. are are different things
12:35 pm
going on every day. how do you compete with the likes of amazon rolling out deals every hour? looked like there were amazing markdowns? how could you have made money over the weekend? niraj: one of the things that is exciting about our business, which is home, which is all we do. we are really playing a role bringing the exciting items to consumers, figuring out what styles they're interested in in. styles they are interested in. do makesure that we money, but the major the customer gets great value. vonnie: is a weekend like this more about customer acquisition, or keeping customers coming back to the site than actual margins? niraj: for us, it is about both.
12:36 pm
we do not give away our full margin to get repeat business. our margins are still quite good while it is a great period for repeat business. barometer good of a is the u.s. consumer wayfair? how does it tell you how americans are spending? niraj: online has been running five to seven times as off-line, and we had been running three times. it is hard for us to read the consumer. we were nervous based on some of the things we have been hearing from the other retailers, but there is a big shift online. we have been seeing incredible results this holiday. the consumer is doing fine. the consumer may be shifting more online than what was expected. vonnie: what are your thoughts on president-elect donald trump,
12:37 pm
and what kind of trade arrangements he would make that could affect your business? niraj: as a brand, as wayfair, we don't take political stances because we service everyone. but in terms of whether there is important duties, there have been different ones over the years. the vast majority of furniture and a core is imported into the united states. sourcedo have as much in america as we can. there are a lot of customize product. ends up being better for america, will be fine for wayfair. because we soar so broadly, we can evolve. to investorsked and policy makers and they say seeis the time to pause to what happens, if there is an
12:38 pm
infrastructure plan, tax cuts, new trade tariffs. are you in a wait and see position as the await the new presidency? niraj: we are not. our direct this has has been growing. last year, we did a little over $2 billion. this year, we will do a little over $3 billion in sales. we need to focus on things on the logistic side. we are seeing large gains from that. regardless of what decisions are made for the country, there is a huge amount of opportunity to be gained from investing now. vonnie: there is also the hiring aspects. you are hiring for the holidays, however, what an immigration clamp down, or some kind of rollback policy, or a of some of the affordable care act policies, with that impact your business? we try to be very
12:39 pm
progressive. and we were offering our employee-based health insurance for before the affordable care act. we don't wait for legislation in order to take care of our own folks. a lot of what may change would not affect us at all, so we will figure out the best route. david: when you look at the opportunity to expand internationally, where are the greatest opportunities globally? arej: in north america, we in the u.s. and canada, and in europe, we are in the u.k. in germany. america isnorth what we are focusing on. vonnie: i know you will be happy to speak to the people who are supporting your stock right now. i was on the phone with an investor who still does not
12:40 pm
believe in his business model because it is not profitable, and at some point, you will have to raise caution -- you will have to raise cash. what do you say to short-sellers right now? niraj: our view is let's take a long term. we know how to run the business profitably. we were profitable for 10 years, which is the reason my business partner and i own most of the business. most of the short sellers have not done a lot of research. these are people who wanted to short sell netflix when it first became public. think about the debate around amazon 10 years ago. you are welcome to short our stock, but we will build a great business. there will be a day where each of those short-sellers will discover it is time to buy the
12:41 pm
stock to close out their position. vonnie: do you need to raise money within the next three to six month? niraj: no. we have over $300 million in cash. the short-sellers try to make comments. vonnie: thank you to niraj shah, wayfair's ceo. niraj: thank you. david: we are finally getting details on what the deal means for the two companies. we will to you about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
12:42 pm
12:43 pm
12:44 pm
♪ you are watching bloomberg. i'm vonnie quinn. >> this is your global business report. released gdp forecast based on the incoming president. well his policy hurt -- will his policy hurt or hurt growth? -- policy help or hurt growth? merkel's risela to power and whether she is likely to be reelected for a fourth term. shares of aberdeen asset
12:45 pm
management are moving on monday after the firm maintained its dividend. the firm has outflows of $9 billion in the most recent quarters. the ceo spoke with bloomberg tv. >> i think it was looking right -- looking a lot better the fourth quarter. the saw inflows into our emerging market product. president-elect trump may be good news for the u.s. market. people think he might be a protectionist president. it could be a buy option. vonnie: despite outflows, aberdeen asset increased. we have seen the president-elect donald trump's affect on stocks, now it is having an effect on economic forecasts. gdporganization says world will explant 3.3% -- will expand 3.3%.
12:46 pm
stimulus plans a boost for major economies. forpilots union is calling more strikes for lou fonseca. the two sides met yesterday, but there was no resolution. china's government is about to put the brakes on overseas dealmaking. committeeto people with the matter, regulators will prevent chinese companies of making overseas investment of $10 million or more. vonnie: time now for our bloomberg quick take. angela merkel has been germany's chancellor since 2005. she is the last major world leader in power since the war the financial crisis. germany's voters will decide.
12:47 pm
here is a situation -- angela merkel announced that she will seek a fourth term. in september, she had offered a culpa with her admit thousands of asylum seekers. she spoke to trump after the election. here is background. hamburg, -- in on the night the berlin wall fell, she continued with her routine only later joining a crowd pushing its way over a bridge into west berlin. she has been working at a lab aysicist at a sweatshop and
12:48 pm
35. she sweet through to become germany's leader in november of 2005. she has been reelected twice. her 2013 victory was the biggest for any party since 1990. here is the argument -- angela has been criticized for her economic perspective. budgetsstence on tight hard stream lake popular on the refugee influx, it was the , losing support at home. you can read more about angela merkel on the bloomberg. head to for more stories. ♪
12:49 pm
12:50 pm
12:51 pm
♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. as starwood marriott joined forces, questions remain on how the profits will change. what do we know now about these properties? >> they are sticking to 30
12:52 pm
brands. i was expecting them to consolidate. for the time being, they are looking at keeping all 30 brands and there is no indication that they will go away. i think marriott is doubling down on luxury, which is refreshing after we have seen the hotel industry prioritize. to find the things that make each brand special and make your resume. -- and make it resonates. travelhow much do brands -- how much do brands matter? some people may prefer the saint regis to the ritz-carlton. brands. are two similar what makes these brands resonate? what makes them different? they figured out that thatcarlton prefers
12:53 pm
specific brand. customers, the destination is the hotel. they are going for the jazz legends or parts of their overall vacation experience they go back for. that is what marriott is looking at to make these brands feel separate and create a very discreet brand identity for each one of them that travelers will recognize and go back for again and again. david: you talk to the executive in charge. she is from starwood. makes me wonder how disintegration has gone so far? >> it has been seamless in some ways, and in some ways, she makes it sound complicated. she was the perfect person to talk to because of her extensive background in both companies.
12:54 pm
she and everyone else is so excited about the opportunities. they have been working very fluidly as a team and it has been great. but they have very different systems. the infrastructure is completely different. finding a way to untangling those systems has been a challenge. that is what a loyalty program is taking a long time and why every bit of news is so separate from the last. david: give us an update on a loyalty program. they have is piecemeal, temporary decision to keep the program consistent. >> that will happen at some point. but the current two programs will stay in place through 2018. you got time. you can currently use your points in either program. that is easy to do. i got some clues from my personal friends. it seems like design hotels is a
12:55 pm
wonderful collection of independent hotels. only half are available on the program right now. all become available on the marriott rewards program when it becomes one program. the autograph collection well become a great -- the autograph collection will become a great addition to value. is notph collection falling into that top luxury tier. that indicates you are going to get a really good bang for your coin by booking into those properties. david: where they trying to go after? millennials are looking for the same things as everyone else. there is no reason to cater to them individually. that is a refreshing perspective.
12:56 pm
the hotel industry has been prioritizing the lifetime -- prioritizing the lifestyle hotel, to upsell a three star as a four-star and a four-star the five star. tina made a really great break from that tradition by saying these are our luxury brands and we will prioritize innovation and technology, and not just try to cater to millennials. david: thank you very much. out pursuits.k damonahead, we talked to job's his opinion on the report. this is bloomberg. ♪
12:57 pm
12:58 pm
12:59 pm
♪ david: it is 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. i'm david gura. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪
1:00 pm
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are covering stories from san francisco to toronto and indiana. two days to go before opec managers try to finalize. the foundations for a dealer looking shaky. the go live to vienna for an update. we go live to vienna for an update. starting a new initiative. to the bank of canada for an interview. halfway into the trading day in u.s. abigail doolittle is here with a synopsis. abigail: looking at modest declines in the u.s. have all indexes lower. the focus has been the idea that
1:01 pm
the string of record highs for the dow and s&p 500 has been snapped. the focus should be we are still on record watch. the dow was down 26 points a a 10th of 1%. as for the russell 2000, this small cap index is being hit the worst. up 15friday, it had been days in a row, the longest winning streak since 1996. pretty amazing, but looks like it is coming to an end. interestingly, we are not looking at a strong risk on or risk off seen. oil, the growth year, risk on commodity is up nicely. we do have the bloomberg dollar index down slightly. sense ofnot a huge
1:02 pm
modest declines. risk we do have distinct is retail, this after the black friday holiday. amazon, macy's, and jcpenney all trading lower. online sales rose 18% over last year. amazon is lower. jcpenney is really getting smacked. ways are more in some the home furnishing stores. looking at restoration hardware, pier 1, and where fair -- pier 1 and wayfair trading lower. shah, the ceoj said consumers are moving very quickly to online sales.
1:03 pm
he said the short investors, there is a high short interest -- 38%.tock of 30% doolittle with that cyber monday update. "time."breaking news on you heard alex sherman speaking about an all-cash offer that it is beneficially rejected. -- it has been officially rejected. check in with the bloomberg first word news. emma chandra has more. >> eight people were stabbed and hit by a vehicle and injured in an attack this morning on the ohio state university campus.
1:04 pm
a spokesman said a suspect in the attack was shot and killed. no details on a possible motive. officials said the eight victims have non-life-threatening injuries. officials say the scene is now secure. classes having canceled for the day. president-elect donald trump has resumed meetings to determine choices for his cabinet and type -- in top white house staff members. trump would meet with mitt romney tomorrow -- will meet with mitt romney tomorrow. this comes after kellyanne conway said that voters would feel betrayed if he picked the secretary of state.
1:05 pm
in syria, state media is reporting that much of the underrn part of aleppo is state control. over the past few days, forces have captured 10 neighborhoods putting nearly 30% of aleppo under government control. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm much andra. vonnie: thank you. if let's get back to the markets with u.s. stocks under all-time highs. joining us is david kotok. let's not worry too much about today's price points in s&p 500 or the dow.
1:06 pm
in general, will the new administration be good for growth? detrimental to inflation? what happens next? david k.: we are speculating on what happens next, but they were not permitted to talk about it on thanksgiving day. [laughter] vonnie: in your house, i am sure. david k.: half the country agreed to not have discussions on politics. we have massive change and we do not know details. we will not know for at least a month, and the speculation -- vonnie: but we know what he said on the campaign trail. david k.: there are general themes. the energy patch will get help, approvals on pipelines instead of the dials on pipelines, things like that. i don't know how to read negotiations of trade deals.
1:07 pm
youin cuba, how do renegotiate the cost of a montecristo cigars? it is one thing to say things on the campaign trail, we'll know that. you have to originate budget bills and taxation principles. there are rules. we are down to the continuing resolution debate, once or twice a year, and anything and everything that can be put in it is the only way you get it through the senate without a deal. navigate this as an investor? there is so much focus on personnel and who he will pick for certain jobs. how are you making sense of the uncertainty? two issues -- treasury
1:08 pm
is a big one, and we do not know. at the end of the day, we still don't know. the fed is a little different. we can make statements about the fed. janet yellen will be 72. she is unlikely to do anything after her chair term is up. stan fisher will be 75, a lengthy to continue. regulation supervision with cirillo is likely to change. this new president is going to name five of seven governors of the federal reserve, maybe more. and monetary policy is going to change. regulation in the financial sector and banking will change. energy is doing well. type to the markets. vonnie: if you are a long-term investor, do you change your
1:09 pm
path until we know more? david k.: i think you have to. at the risk of a little more inflation there. maybe perhaps desirability of a there.more growth they'r guessing at the details? yes. dollar is stronger. small caps over large caps. that is an easy trade. we are overweight, the highest we had been in the small cap --tor in our we had a huge swing in bonds. after brexit, everyone was terrified. the 10 year treasury, which is down to it at a low, 1.3% is 100 basis points higher now. we think we have had a 35 year low in interest rates last july.
1:10 pm
so if you feel that you want to take positions in bonds now, you have to manage them differently. on the other hand, the tax-free bonds got clobbered during the trump selloff. i don't care what the new tax rates are going to be. that is still an attractive piece of paper. bill at: was talking to citigroup and he says part of the risk factors is the material temperament -- the material temperament of the president-elect. a refacing an atmosphere where investors will have to decide what to ignore what to take at face value? david k.: yes. and you have to follow general principles that still apply overlong terrible loss of time. that still apply overlong periods of time. this president-elect has added volatility. volatility from politics is here
1:11 pm
to stay. we are going to see it in italy and across assets. and in liquid assets, it will evidence itself very quickly. non-liquid assets, like real estate, it will take more time. vonnie: does janet yellen not have to worry anymore? david k.: she is chair of the fed in the fed -- vonnie: giving undue monetary stimulus a little faster? david k.: it would seem they will. we are speculating about the dodd-frank. i would say she has a very strong freehand for the next year. -- is: those attractive it too late for the banks? huge k.: bonds are
1:12 pm
oversold, you have to look at the timing of position in the volatility indicators and to wait -- and the way to see it. it vonnie: thank you, david kotok. david: watching oil trading higher as opec tries to salvage a deal on limiting production. we will have a live meeting from the enough, coming up next -- will have a live meeting from vienna, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:13 pm
1:14 pm
♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. time for our latest bloomberg this is flash. shareas declined in $18 a takeover offer from a deal
1:15 pm
backed by access industries. third judge and comes as time continues to transition for the digital world. since it's 20% today been off from time warner. lender has started the first crucial plan. bond ownersasking to swap. lou found the will appear -- the german airline accounted for more than 1700 flight schedule for both days adjusting travel plans for passengers. if the strike colts, they will be the union's longus against the german airlines -- if the strike holds, it will be the
1:16 pm
longest against the german airlines. vonnie: oil moving higher. saudi arabia says, a production cut may not be essential. joining us now is him or he for 10. -- joining us now is in marie horton. a recloser to a deal? >> we are not closer to a deal. it was just a break from a preparatory meeting with delegates traveling with the oil minister. .hings are still split until they get on board with what they are going to do, there will not be a deal. it is a high-stakes poker game with a lot of bluffing. they are all holding their cards closely. basically between the saudi's and arabians. the other players right now
1:17 pm
don't matter? the things of the iranians is they keep insisting they will not cut --they want to keep their pre-sanctioned levels of more than 4 million barrels a day. there have been a few offer circulating. to 3.9re offered to cut billion -- 3.9 million barrels a day. they are accepting of opec, a saudi-led deal, which will be very hard to sell to the hardliners. until the iranians and iraqis get on board, it is going to be very hard for opec to get a deal done by wednesday. david: how much of the focus is on moscow? there was an effort to bring russia into the fold. a phrase might be on the table, but cuts are not.
1:18 pm
is that were a lot of the focus is right now? because to oil be heading to russia meeting with the oil minister. they have said they will be a phrase, but they will not cut. vladimir putin said this himself. callt word on a phone saying they co pack as the need to stabilize the market. the iranians are aligning themselves with russia. no clue on what that may mean. ,ertainly playing a big role when you have the president of the two countries calling about this deal. it is going to the highest levels of the government. it will be interesting to see if russia is willing to cut. offered non-opec members a plan of 600,000 million barrels a day to cut.
1:19 pm
for russia, it will be interesting to say they will do it. i doubt it. vonnie: what is the official deadline? is there one here at all? effectively, they could be the meeting without a deal. deadline ishe wednesday. this is the official opec meeting. they have had some many meetings since this algiers deal at the end of september. they have met in doha twice. they have met in istanbul. they had been meeting all less week. there are technical teams in vienna. wednesday is supposed to be the bottom line for a deal. it will be interesting if they decide to pick up talks next week, or if they start playing hardball and that is it for six months. david: thank you so much. still ahead, amazon is
1:20 pm
.racking down the steps are taking to get rid of fakes. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:21 pm
1:22 pm
♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. vonnie: and i'm funny quinn. onlineld's biggest vendor is getting serious. by a bloomberg technology reporter who covers amazon. spencer, it is not a unique problem to amazon. is that theyought are now getting series not counterfeit? spencer: it has been lingering
1:23 pm
for a wild. alibaba is the biggest marketplace namely comes to counterfeits. amazon is big and growing and has a lot of spending going on which makes it a prime target for counterfeiters. david: how difficult is it to police this? amazon has is marketplace in great and its site, so you can be buying something from an amazon warehouse, or something vonnie has manufactured? spencer: that is a great question. amazon was to streamline that for legitimate sellers. they want to have it is seamless as possible. they have to balance that with that same ease for legitimate sellers. but it makes it vulnerable for counterfeits. vonnie: these products, i want to make sure that amazon does
1:24 pm
not try to sell similar ones to the ones i am manufacturing, so they will keep me as a customer. how do they do that? do they put a huge amount of reserve, inside, in case it should be necessary, or what? that is what is coming. the only legal responsibility these marketplaces have is that a mechanism to use the legitimate brand to report fakes when they pop up, and then take actions to knock them down. amazon has said in a lawsuit is that it spends tens of millions of dollars a year on scientist and programmers trying to be more proactive and identify these things before the infiltrate the site. but it is still happening. they're dedicating resources to it, but the counterfeits are still infiltrating. david: you wrote in your piece,
1:25 pm
spencer, that sports leagues are worried about this. any sports league would like to offer their merchandise on the world's biggest online marketplace. how big of a concern is it to amazon? spencer: that is a concern where counterfeits are inhibiting amazon to get out of the marketplace. majorly baseball and the nfl -- major league baseball in the nfl had a standstill. they want to see amazon doing a better job of policing and keeping fakes off their site. they want them to be more proactive about it and left reactive. their process gives counterfeiters time to get buyers before they pop up somewhere else. mores want to see a proactive approach.
1:26 pm
not just knocking them down afterwards. vonnie: spencer, it is a great story. one we will continue to follow. you can get more on that story and other top tech stories with emily chang. david: shoppers opt for the couch instead of the crowded mall. ceo.ll hear from ups' this is bloomberg. ♪ .
1:27 pm
1:28 pm
1:29 pm
david: live from bloomberg headquarters, i am david gura. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn.
1:30 pm
this is "bloomberg markets." emma chandra has more. nine people were injured in an attack on the ohio state university campus. officials of the suspect was shot and killed. a.m., the9:52 emergency dispatch center and report that the vehicle had struck restaurants. but 9:53, and osu pd officer called on the radial the radio that shots were fired and engaged the suspect to have after out of the vehicle hitting pedestrians. the suspect cut multiple individuals. the ups or engage the suspect and shot and killed the suspect. officials said the victims had nonlife threatening injuries. warnings havece been lifted and officials say of this scene is secure. classes have been canceled for the day. the green party says it will ask a pencil in your court to order a statewide recount of the presidential election results. it's unclear if the courts have the authority to do so.
1:31 pm
a lawyer for jill stein wouldn't discuss what would be alleged in the expected lawsuit. edged out hillary clinton by about 1% of the vote in pennsylvania. thousands of cubans are lining up near the plaza of the revolution have on a -- in havana for the start of memorial services dedicated to former president fidel castro. many of the cubans work at state businesses. castro led the nation for almost half a century. his body is due to be cremated, but the government hasn't yet said whether his ashes will be displayed at the monument of the national hero hosing my tape. the city of london has approved plans for what would be the tallest building in the capital's financial district. the 73 story tower will be located on a plot of land between the gergen and the cheese grater. it will have 900-7000 square of development.
1:32 pm
global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm a much longer. -- find them at chandra -- i'm emmett chandra. e-commerce sales are expected to jump to $2 trillion. what's being done to ensure the surgeon shipping runs smoothly? david westin asked chairman and ceo of ups how the numbers are looking so far. >> we got off to a very good start. we've been planning league season since the beginning of the year. weekend cameer the in about where we planned. obviously, higher than last year. to anotherward record-setting peak season, which we think we will see. an important part of your job
1:33 pm
is planning for the season and trying to anticipate how much capacity in need. how much of an increase or you projecting? this year, we are going to deliver over 700 million packages between thanksgiving and christmas. that's an increase of 14% over last year. we are certainly ready to handle that increase load. >> obviously, we've seen the shipping grow by leaps and bounds along with online shopping. it doesn't seem like it's going to slow down anytime soon. is there a level at which the capacity not just for you all, but for the global in just six system is going to be too much to handle? are we far from this place at that point? grexit speaking for ubs, can tell you through working with our customers that we have increased capacity and will continue to do that as demand
1:34 pm
increases. we are adding people. , vehicles,rcraft buildings, temporary buildings. truly making sure that we collaborate for customers and find out what they need, add the capacity, give our customers more control, and in the commitments of all of our upses around the world to make absolutely sure that we meet the needs of our customers. david: how direct we correlated is your growth to amazon's growth? >> for our network, we correlate growth to anyone customer. no customer would be responsible for 10% or more of our revenue. all of thely, retailers, the retailers and the large brick-and-mortar retailers, as a group certainly affect what our volume increase at this time of year. we have a new president-elect
1:35 pm
and i wonder what your internal planning tells you about what a donald trump presidency could mean. i can make it three issues. one is consumer spending, if there is growth, that could be more and customer spending. and infrastructure, number three is trade. an important part of the growth is titan international growth and international sales. what do you projecting to two 717 -- 2017 and beyond? >> we look forward to working with this administration just as we have in the past. we are focused, with we have common ground with the administration, increasing american competitiveness and that certainly is adding infrastructure, makes a big difference. corporate tax reform we think is a big part of that. making sure that we have rules and regulations that encourage technology and productivity gains. and then in trade, we believe the trade is very important. and that trade agreements will
1:36 pm
help even the playing field across the world with the united states. >> are you and your colleagues in touch with the trumpet transition team already to talk about what's going to happen at treasury or commerce? with any administration, we work together and we have had conversations with staff members and the like, but we, as the administration comes into office , we will certainly have much more time to discuss the key how weand just explain think we can accomplish making america much more competitive than we have been in recent years. david: that was david abney earlier today on bloomberg daybreak americas. vonnie: by how much is the american consumer be stepping up this year? the ceo of aged son joined
1:37 pm
bloomberg daybreak americas to tell us how shoppers fared. people were engaged postelection, but they were really driven by the deals and promotions they were saying. is, is not cyber monday, it's cyber every day at this point. i think people have an of what they're going to pay for. and they are buying what they want, but they are waiting. i think the biggest news from the last week is this device is no longer a pos, this is your flagship store. i think that is what everybody has to thinking about. reported in the third quarter that digital was 53% of overall business. mobile was 22%. that number, we're going to see jump in the fourth quarter. just what we've seen in the last week, mobile traffic, mobile engagements, even in the high ticket brands, you saw mobile sales increase very high
1:38 pm
double-digit. hear what theyo are buying. in other words, what kind of trends are you seeing in luxury versus some of the other spectrum of price points? and what kind of stuff is most popular now? >> certainly electronics this time of year drums a lot of business. that's everything from four k tvs to drones to mobile. >> you see that every year. >> that trend is intact. for there going to look best values because every thing is transparent today. it behooves us to work closely with our partners to be able provide those values and promotions to the customer. we are also seeing what i would call practical presence. straight gadget gifts. we saw strength in nfl, for example. lesson things like apparel and jewelry, which we don't promote very heavily this time of year.
1:39 pm
gifts,n anything in whether that's for oh-fer were gadget or without anything else, people are definitely in very specific about what they are buying. you mentioned values and discounts. that brings me to a question about margins. can the business make it up on volume? the instant comparison across the world about prices has to drive john margins. >> that's the big question. and we're all talking about sales. it really is going to come down to margins. what i've seen in the past week is deeper discounting than we have ever seen before. and that, on top of shipping and handling. we're trying to do things like customization and personalization in the new design stores, we had in store monogramming that was driving a lot of traffic. treating the customer like a vip, investing more in exclusivity on it. investing more in the talents that can do that. it's a big focus. mindy grossman, hsm ceo.
1:40 pm
an address ahead of the interest-rate meeting. we the latest outlook on policy in a preview of our exclusive interview with the banker, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:41 pm
1:42 pm
david: this is "bloomberg markets," i'm david gura. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. abigail doolittle has the chart of the day. abigail: one of the big stories is oil and opec investors hoping that opec will hammer out a supply cut deal on wednesday, so our chart of the day does deal with this. 4210.
1:43 pm
dealort, if the supply cut from opec comes through, it may not be that big of a deal. on top we had non-opec producers, on bottom we had the opec production. year, that over the last year-and-a-half, opec production has been declining while non-opec has been increasing. so this chart may suggest that whether the deal comes through or not, it may not have much of a weight on the price of oil going forward and whether or not we do go into a fourth surplus in a row. supporting the idea that the non-opec producers are really having a big influence on the oil market, when we take a look at the five-year chart, this is of the department of energy crude oil production data over the last five years, up nearly 50%. telling us about a lot of supply here in the u.s. a different look at this is an important index over the last five years, down near the lows of the last five years. this chart max we suggest that opec cut could help the oil
1:44 pm
market, but it also can suggest any not be enough to really sway it all that much. lots of volatility and uncertainty. when you take a look at the oil oil volatility index, it's been trading around the bottom, not a lot of volatility. more recently all of these hopes that opec could cut supply, we see it topping back higher. lots of uncertainty around oil and we will more on wednesday -- we will know more on wednesday that deal is handled out. vonnie: abigail doolittle, thanks. david: time to the bloomberg business flash with the biggest stories in the news right now. a $160 million funding round for stride just minted ireland's youngest billionaires. they own about 29% of that business now valued at $9 billion. the bloomberg billionaires index net worth data puts the founder
1:45 pm
ownership pool equally between the two brothers, getting each a $1.1 billion stake. china is planning sweeping curbs on overseas acquisitions, occluding barring most foreign investments of $10 billion or more. that's according to people with knowledge of the matter. the curbs will last until the end of september 2017. regulators pay extra attention to deals by highly leveraged firms and companies with poor return on assets. the biggest online spending day is on the line. the number one status is threatened by a surge of shopping online. cyber monday spending is on track to reach a record three point three $6 billion -- $3.36 billion. last week's numbers were not far behind. that is your bloomberg business flash update. consumer confidence remains subdued amid a worsening outlook for housing on the economy in general.
1:46 pm
stephen poulos is giving a speech today. he will likely address canada's economic struggles and growth. -1.6% at the last reading. speaking canada anchor exclusively with us, joining us exclusively from toronto. added: much has happened since the last meeting. in october, when the bank decided not to move, they held study that rates are at .5%, which consists among the higher-yielding central banks in the world. they came very close to cutting, and unusual telegraphing of their intentions at that meeting. some of the reasons they cited were the weakening of the economy, the fact that we haven't yet seen the federal government's fiscal stimulus showing up in the economy. and uncertainty around things like housing, as you mentioned and the u.s. election.
1:47 pm
you fast forward to next week's meeting, december 7, ask what's changed? the canadian economy remains weak. we've yet to receive a kick in from stimulus spending and we have bond deals reacting quite election ofthe president-elect trump. you put that altogether and you have to questions about whether or not they are not going to cut next week. the betting sort of point in that direction. david: i wonder if he's been to talk about yields. is that going to be on his agenda? amanda: very much so. one of the questions that's true for investors on both side of the border is the back of an yields we've seen due to genuine fundamentalist dictation of inflation from a trump presidency, or other short-term factors at play. could this be a buying opportunity for bonds or not? where is this a real inflection point. he has a factor that in on two fronts as yields go up, the cost of oil -- of homeownership goes up, and the housing market has
1:48 pm
been a real focal point for all of our regulars. only today, the financial services regulators warning the banks not to count on rising prices as they assess whether a mortgage is risky or not. this thing could come to an end, and sure you are not offside on their mortgages. as was he was rates go up, the cost of lending goes up. for the central bank, gives the room to maneuver. he can actually cut rates and still have some space. he's not encouraging risky borrowing. mixput all of that into the of those the kind of things he's going to have to factor in, even as things like policy around housing is up. unorthodoxmay be that is been floated around various different banks, he could potentially do that would involve an interest rate pause. amanda: the expectation is he still has a lot in his toolbox. of that central bank overnight rate, this bank could still go to zero and beyond.
1:49 pm
there's a possibility of negative here if it was deemed necessary. there's also quantitative easing the possibility that canada has not yet taken advantage of. in terms of cooling other parts of the market, we are other government agencies asking on that, including the federal government. in our country, we have a system of insurance around mortgages they really insulates the banks from the worst effects of a big housing market correction. regulars are pondering making them really share the pain of a big risk in the mortgage market. and a laundrylts flinch or invite by taxpayers, but the banks have to share some of the pain. that is not the governor's jurisdiction, but that kind of thing comes into play, he has to weigh the effect it has on the economy. on i imagine he's going to be asked tout trade and the degree which things have changed since
1:50 pm
tall front has been elected. what have we heard? amanda: he will actually address it. his speech is actually on the services component of the canadian economy, which is one of the fastest-growing. a little bit of good news. we have an 80 billion dollars and $90 billion hole in the economy thanks to lower oil prices. we deceive growth -- we need to see growth. globalization, free trade, it will definitely be asked by tradeers about protectionism and what effect that will have. it's hard to try and make a guess about what will happen to try and guess all policies. it does have to go into the mix when he is how much stimulus this economy needs. vonnie: the canadian dollar .8% stronger. , caps on exclusive
1:51 pm
you miss.on what did david: it donald trump follows through on his controversial campaign promise. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:52 pm
1:53 pm
david: this is "bloomberg markets," i'm david gura. immigrants living in the u.s. are preparing to life after president obama. donald trump is that he would cancel a document and workers permits. renickassar and oliver spoke to someone who profiled this. >> he's in his 30's and engineer to silicon valley company. he doesn't know what is going to lose his permit to work at his protection from deportation within the next couple of months. he is someone who in many ways could be a poster child for president obama's deferred action for child arrivals
1:54 pm
he was brought here is a seven-year-old on a visa that he and his family then stayed past the expiration of. i spent almost as whole life in the united states. and wasn't able to work legally until 2012, when he was covered under this program initiated through executive authority by president obama, which so far, has shielded over 700,000 people who have been here a long time and came here early in their lives from being threatened with deportation and has provided them work permits. hesitated, he told the, about applying for the program in 2012. he worried about what would happen if mitt romney got elected. now he's in this position of reckoning with what this unexpected victory by president-elect donald trump is going to mean for him. is information, and address, government now has.
1:55 pm
>> he likens of thousands of others provided information to the government, which people involved in the program have confirmed now will be information that's available to president trump, and his governments, which she has committed to take a more aggressive approach when it comes to forcing people to leave the country. oliver: what has trump said about this specific -- what is he said about a juliet -- appealing it, addressing it? >> he said he is going to end it and other executive moves by resident obama on day one. -- president obama on day one. what remains to be seen is how literally and how specifically he chooses to keep that pledge. and if he does, if somehow he can be swayed by others, including people in the business community to change his view. among the questions is whether he would revoke immediately,
1:56 pm
instantaneously, all of the work authorizations. meeting someone who was legally employable one day would be unemployable the next day, or whether he would allow them to run out. and also, how much of a deportation risk there will be for people who previously were daca.ted by dr. -- you can check out josh's story in the latest bloomberg businessweek. here for more every saturday and sunday on bloomberg television. vonnie: coming up on "bloomberg markets," rob thummel joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:57 pm
1:58 pm
1:59 pm
vonnie: it's 11:00 a.m. in san scarlet: it's 11:00 a.m. in san francisco, i'm scarlet fu. welcome to "bloomberg markets."
2:00 pm
we are line of bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour, covering stories in washington, toronto, vienna, and saudi arabia. opec ministers try to salvage a deal to cut production, but obligations remain even as a rock so that minister -- even as iraq's opec manager expresses doubt. how investors can use volatility to their advantages donald trump to take office. the latest from from towers counter just cabinet interviews progress. david addresses the new front front runner for secretary of state. u.s. markets close in two hours time. let's check in on how equities are trading without a guilty little. it looks like everyone -- with abigail doolittle. averages downajor ever so slightly. this after the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq closed at record highs on
2:01 pm
friday. standing a bit of a record streak, especially for the dow and the s&p 500, which put in for record closes in a row. averages are down slightly, so fractionally away from making new record highs. two more hours in the trading day, let's see what can be done as the data does progress. as with a very small move, it's exemplified as we go to the bloomberg and take a look at g #gtb 2839. this chart shows as the intraday trading ranges in the s&p 500, right around the election. receiving trading range around the brexit, right now looking at relatively small trading ranges. as scarlet was saying, we're looking at investors taking a bit of a breather. one place where does seem very likely that a long record winning streak is going to be snapped is the russell 2000. this is the russell 2000 on it's amazing 15 day winning streak, the longest since 1996. nine of those closes were record
2:02 pm
highs in a row. of the small-cap sector, but today we do have the russell 2000 down 1.5%, this could be coming to an end. one area where we have strength continuing, the commodity complex. the bloomberg commodity in the very nicely, especially the bloomberg industrial metals. we're looking at big strength the best five-day runs in october 2011. at the highest levels in june of 2015. we also have delivered dollar highs,lose to his record putting a record high earlier this month. your commodities trading higher on the dollar strength really speaks to the idea that some investors are seeing a bit of a growth picture ahead. to around the picture out, let's take a look at bonds. looking at a rally in bonds as shown by the two-year yield declining with price trading in verse two yield. this is the first today dropping somebodyce november 4,
2:03 pm
amazing. after a big rally in raids in bonds, investors may be taking a bit of a breather. bondst: with or without just a moment. at guilty little, thank you. in second -- let's check with courtney collins. cartney: a man slams his into a group of pedestrian ohio state university and then got out and began stabbing with a butcher knife. campus police that he was shot and killed by an officer this morning. nine people were hurt, one critically. the collapse police chief said they are looking into whether it was a terrorist attack. shelter in place warnings at the university have been lifted and officials say the scene is now secure. classes have been canceled for the day. president-elect donald trump is seriously considering retired general david petraeus to be secretary of state. he plans to meet with a former cia director this afternoon at trump tower here in new york.
2:04 pm
as according to a senior official with the transition team. the celebrant four-star general left government under a cloud after sharing classified documents during a next marital affair. the man accused of killing nine black parishioners at a south carolina church will act as his own attorney. the request came against his lawyer's advice and the u.s. district judge said he would reluctantly accept the 22-year-olds quote unwise decision. prosecutors are seeking the onth penalty against roof hate crimes, instruction of religion, and other charges. thousands of cubans are lining up near havana's plaza of the revolution for the start of a weeklong services for former president fidel castro. many of the cubans paying homage to castro are workers at state businesses. white house spokesman josh earnest talks about the u.s. relationship with cuba in the wake of castro's death.
2:05 pm
>> from the u.s. standpoint, i wouldn't expect any impact on the kind of progress we are making rn to begin to normalize relationships with cuba. >> they haven't said whether castro's action would be on display. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney collins, this is bloomberg. scarlet: turning to the bond market, treasuries are headed for the steepest monthly loss since january 2009. president it -- president-elect trump's election and the forecast to drop rates are driving declines. joining us is kathleen gaffney, at eaton vance, which oversees $300 billion. there are different ways of
2:06 pm
looking at this selloff. one way we could do it is by technical analysis. if you go to the bloomberg terminal, you can see that the is the most overdone as far back of the data takes us. is the worst of the bond rout over? ms. gaffney: for now, i think it is. we're definitely going through the positive refreshes. in general, we can see the low interest rates, the secular bull market is over. i think we are -- we have to get prepared for a lot of volatility because it still is so much uncertainty out there. scarlet: there's a lot of uncertainty out there, and yet when you look at the forecast -- 2.54%10 year yield by the next year.
2:07 pm
how high you see the 10 year yield going? ms. gaffney: i do think the direction is up. out 12 monthsg from now, we're going to be closer to 3% that anywhere near where we are today. scarlet: closer to 3%. all right. i know that in your note, you mentioned credit as a whole. that whole spaces overvalued. you noted that the drop in treasuries is not credited valuations. why is that? sharpffney: we had a move, but we also had a fairly positive backdrop in terms of what got the treasury market going, this whole idea that growth is going to pick up. that's a positive environment for corporate. we're still looking at interest rates that are fairly low, historically. they are low interest rates. there is still a demand for yield. i think it's going to take a few moves to get investors thinking
2:08 pm
more broadly not changing investment executions. some of that we've seen with the steepening of the yield curve. i see not a huge opportunity because interest rates are going to continue to climb. scarlet: he safeguarded take a while for investors to get their expiration -- inflation excitations in line. we are starting to see that creep up. what is that a knee-jerk reaction to? reactioney: that's a to thinking about the new administration and the potential for broader fiscal policies and every structure spending. and as i mentioned, the uncertainty that still lurks is global. next on day, we are looking at the referendum in italy and we have a number of elections coming up in europe next year.
2:09 pm
all of that will indicate what direction the global economy is going in. and while overall, i think we are headed for stronger growth and rising inflation because with these elections, it is time to get growth going, think we are to have a lot of volatility. there's a changing environment, and that type of uncertainty will create a back-and-forth in the rates markets, and bond markets overall. it really is important for investors to remain nimble. when bonds and selloff, i'm talking corporate bonds, that can be a good buying opportunity. was daily from sovereign bonds, think the yield their don't compensate you for the rate rise eventually. you're looking at negative rates of return. scarlet: i get what you're saying about volatility, but if you qualify that little that more. are we talking about gyrations were you have price swings?
2:10 pm
or a sharp movement where the trajectory is much faster than what investors are accustomed to? ms. gaffney: we have a sharp move just in the last six weeks i think we will sell down and we may even reverse course in the short-term if the outcome in europe is unexpected. but when we get those big moves up, we broke out of the range quickly in 230 very the span of couple of weeks. and aype of volatility back-and-forth i think is going to create uncertainty for investors in terms of which way is the market really had it. market isng-term, the headed with rates moving higher and you want to be buying when bonds are getting cheaper and cheaper. scarlet: you are be buying is local currency emerging market debt, with all the uncertainty we have in the u.s., wouldn't
2:11 pm
that plague the emerging markets as well? ms. gaffney: that's an excellent example. what we've seen is an initial knee-jerk reaction for emerging markets picking that trade barriers are going to go up with the new administration. but if the end goal for the global economy is for greater growth, emerging markets will benefit. it's important though to look for emerging markets that do not have a lot of external dollar-denominated debt and countries that are putting reforms through. i think 2017 is really a year about strong reforms, rates moving up, and better growth and changing inflation expectations, which is a very different environment from what we've experienced over the last several years. and why i think there's likely to be a lot of volatility ahead. scarlet: pretty much a 180 from week highest in previously. kathleen gaffney, thank you.
2:12 pm
coming up, the chances of an opec deal. to amrita sen. where oil is trading with 20 minutes before the saudis crows -- the saudi's close, up to 4725 a barrel. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:13 pm
2:14 pm
scarlet: breaking news and politics, the associated press reports the donald trump has been certified the winner of michigan's 16 electoral votes. bezos in press said the michigan had certified donald trump as the winner of the states 16 electoral votes. 16 votes.t state by
2:15 pm
another jill stein had proposed a recount, we are expecting her to file the request by wednesday. she has until wednesday to do so for a recount in michigan. she filed a request for a recount in wisconsin. you can be posted on further developments. a look at the biggest business stories in business or not. samsung heir apparent faces rising pressure from investors for broad change. he says they have been talking with investors to sound out opinions on the overhaul proposals. --ental financials says predental for -- provincial -- he sayssays investors may now be overestimating the new and
2:16 pm
administration's to kick the u.s. economy and higher gear. mays is a range of forces holders rates in check. the hedge fund billionaire accused of insider trading may turn to his investors to defray legal costs. -- legal bills may exceed what they are spacing. themtors say he has told he anticipates his insurance will cover all of the expenses. that is the bloomberg business flash. oil is back on the rise after iraq's minister says he is optimistic. he told reporters as he arrived in vienna. [indiscernible] scarlet: will that kind of
2:17 pm
positive rhetoric helped seal the deal? -- amrita sen her opinion her opinion spraine general market opinion is if opec can't come together now, when can they? ,rices are at such low levels we really want to avoid where they have to call russia and the nothing happens. get opec in order first, that's why they want the iranians in the rockies -- and a rockies to come together. hopefully they get a deal. >> what do you expect from that meeting in moscow? there's between meeting with the russian energy minister. what are you expecting? >> is a very difficult time in. russia has consistently said they will only join in if opec know what they are doing.
2:18 pm
we still haven't heard exactly what the technical meeting brings today. hopefully, they will no whether iran and iraq are going to join this meeting. if they do, they can take the deal to russia and then russia can come back with a proposal. if they don't, again, it's a wasted opportunity. >> how badly to the saudi's need a deal? >> they would like to see oil think -- i don't think they would do the deal by themselves. think that's why iran and iraq have been try to push them into a corner, expecting they would check the cut all of themselves. and that's why the saudi's have taken the hard line now. i market is to be aware of this because this is not going to be down to a lack of will, it comes down to a lack of logic. logically, they should cut. it's about the little baggage between all these countries and it may well be that they don't come up with a deal because of the saudi's are bearing this
2:19 pm
cost by themselves, there is no deal. >> the rockies are sent to have alternate deal of taking a cut of 3.9 2 million barrels a day. could they sell that back home domestically to the hardliners? >> the problem with the iranian deal, i will continue to say this. there is no one deal. there are lots of different proposals. but the sims is one of the proposals. iran has always said they can do for million barrels a day. 3.924, when you are in the room, i think it's a close enough number that they want to do a deal, they can get the deal done. i think it's more question of trump's victory, do our letters feel more empowered and are they pushing for more and saying potentially the threat of sections coming back, they want to get to 4.2%, but iran can't increase production. they are pushing for more. >> last question.
2:20 pm
no deal wednesday. where we see oil trade? isthe impression the market is is opec and the end of opec. i'm not saying that's the reality. i'm saying that's the perception. if wedn't be surprised see 20's again. not straightaway, but i think perception would be very negative. that was amrita david betrays is now at trump tower. because can see has arrived at trump tower earlier this afternoon. is a possible secretary of state candidate. this just moments ago, meeting currently with the president-elect, donald trump considering him to be secretary of state, the celebrated four-star general arriving in midtown at trump tower. this is bloomberg.
2:21 pm
2:22 pm
scarlet: this is bloomberg markets, i'm scarlet fu.
2:23 pm
president-elect donald trump is said to be considering david betrays to be secretary of state. the general live -- general arrived at trump tower, but the he made capthat mitt romney is fueling concern from from insiders. they are angry over his prior comments about trump. this is what kellyanne conway told nbc's meet the press. kellyanne conway: people feel betrayed to think the governor romney who went out of his way to question the character and the intellect and the integrity of donald trump, now president-elect, would be even the most significant cabinet post of all. that's a decision that only one man can make, resident elect donald trump. i respected and supported 1000%. scarlet: let's bring in ben brody in washington. betrays -- david petraeus enterprise tower. did he become a candidate
2:24 pm
because there was so much outcry over mitt romney is the dental secretary of state? ben: it might seem that way, but trump reporters are telling us the general has been in the mix for a long time, even when it seems like it was a done deal with mitt romney before a lot of this hullabaloo came out. he has been in the mix in he'sous and ministrations been at the top of the foreign policy establishments for a long time. it's not that surprising, but it does come new today and it is sort of infighting. this very public declaration you have my kellyanne conway. he also have them by newt gingrich and mike huckabee, saying mitt romney is not acceptable. rubbed: her comments people the wrong way. david axelrod, a former adviser to president obama said she had been assigned the role of trashing obama publicly, or she
2:25 pm
is trying to box in donald trump. was the early read -- what is the early read on which path he is taking? ben: you can be very difficult to know exactly what's going on in these type of tight circles, particularly around donald trump. there can be a lot of politics going on around there. can be a lot of different unorthodox ways of going on. people also suggested that she is trying to reach donald trump, who is an avid consumer of the media. it's a little long clear him we do know that kellyanne conway is a very good soldier. -- she was the campaign manager at the end of the campaign, she is always come to the president elect defense. makes all the more striking that she was coming out and saying this. but it also suggests there might be some internal machinations that she may be expressing. what they may be, it's hard to know. a lot of factions. scarlet: the associate press
2:26 pm
trump was awarded michigan's electoral votes. what do we expect in the coming days? ben: she may try to go for a recount. the clinton campaign would probably then in turn say they are supporting at revising it, but not fully undertaking it by themselves. i think the key thing about michigan is what happened on november 9, which is the breaking of the blue wall in the democratic state. ben brody, thank you. reporting from washington. still ahead, the commodities close. oil is rising is opec ministers try to salvage a cut. oil minister says he is optimistic. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:27 pm
test test
2:28 pm
speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second.
2:29 pm
you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. but behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. wifi pro from comcast business. public wifi for your customers. private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business. >> from bloomberg world headquarters in midtown manhattan this is bloomberg markets. commodity markets are closing in new york. stories in theig
2:30 pm
commodity complex. highs. oil near session day.s best day on best investor hoping for a deal from ofebruary. o-- opec. interestingly when we go into the bloomberg and take a look at etv, this chart may suggest potential opec deal. it maybe more psychological. production.opec on bottom we have opec production. we see over here that opec been falling over year and a this chart may suggest that it's more psychological. com q economist over at keep economics, he's a deal is made, it will equal about $45 per barrel. gives the chances probability
2:31 pm
handed out onal wednesday 60% chance. time will tell. theher big story in commodity complex are the metals. we have the industrial metal in the bloomberg industrial metals wanted touse me, i take a look at one other chart highlights divide between opec and non-opec. that. me for we have the russia output. non-opec oil producer. we see that russia supply has been increasing, saudi arabia falling. a bit of divide there. really suggesting that a deal could be a bit more psychological. now turning to the metals. the other big story today. look at the five day chart in bloomberg industrial metal index. rally here, up nearly days since buy october 2011.
2:32 pm
highest level since june of 2015. aluminum,rength in copper, led. copper is on paper, its best since 2009 up more than this point for the month of november. >> i know you're excited to get to industrial metals. brought that chart. let's get more on the outlook markets with rob thummel. arounds over see $15 billion in assets. you. to see saudi arabia's oil minister ploted the possibility of anving a deal without agreement. can a deal get done without the of saudi arabia do you think this is a negotiating tactic? >> good to talk to you. it's a negotiating tactic. is running out of patience.
2:33 pm
happening incrisis venezuela. it's pretty important opec needs thehigher oil prices in future saudi arabia will be a important component. >> saudi arabia being important component, this brings us back andovember 2014, compare contrast the stakes for opec to inch a deal this time versus november of 2014? >> oil prices were much higher. we had u.s. production on the rise. total the different environment this time. falling.uction is non-opec production has been falling. demand is increasing. stronger demand and lower production from outside of opec >> do you think saudi arabia is counting on demand to continue to rise?
2:34 pm
>> that's the great thing about where we are in oil prices. even if prices rise, we think will rise and be w.t.i.ound, $50 to $60 per barrel range. that's actually a great thing. that's a good thing for u.s. producers. good thing for opec and demand. demand will remain strong. averagerobably above more than a million barrels a for anear of growth extended petered of time -- period of time. the demand side. back to the supply side. is the outcome of the opec discussions binary. do you get a deal, if you don't to $30eal, it goes back again? it's shortnot a deal term volatility. that's short term. prices are too
2:35 pm
low. oil $50 ored to see higher. to really incentivize future production. where is that production going to come from? right here from the puss. -- u.s. deep water projects off the and africa.xico they're gone. where the swing producer will in theom is right here united states. u.s. producers need at least $50 to grow production. anything below that, they'll cutting back capital. >> shell producers are not competitive with oil below $40 around $30 a barrel? this is the interesting thing. the shell producer have done a of lowering their cost structures. competitive in west texas. they are competitive in the ofbal oil markets with a lot opec. the break even cost of some of
2:36 pm
these companies like eog west texas is lower than some opec producers. u.s. shell oil will be competitive. u.s. shell oil is here to stay. it's going to be a long term the global market. funds.oise has eight up about 20% so far. it's best year basis, performer in the category of energy equity funds. making totments are this fund? using?sumptions are you >> investing in energy sector is not just about the direction of oil prices. oil prices don't have to go up or go down to impact or make sector. the energy that's what topics captures. it captures opportunity. based across the entire energy sector. there are a lot of interesting things. infrastructure, energy great thingse, going on. lot of new infrastructure being inlt in the marcella shell the northeast.
2:37 pm
lot of energy infrastructure andg built throughout texas oklahoma. investors 6.5% yield.d it raised dividend on average 7% 7%ry year over every year over that 10 year period. that's a great we to play it. the u.s. is really the saudi arabia of natural gas. opportunitiesof on the natural goose. right, rob thummel thank you so much for joining us today. adviser andital manager director. bloomberg news. into an plowed his car group of pedestrian at ohio state university and got out and stabbing people with a butcher knife. he was shot and killed by an
2:38 pm
officer this morning. 9:52 a.m. a vehicle pedestrians. an osu police officer called out that shots were fired. engaged the suspect who gotten out the vehicle after hitting pedestrians. suspect cut multiple individuals. the officer engaged the suspect the suspect.killed >> nine people were hurt. the columbus police chief they looking into whether it was a terrorist attack. officials say the scene is now secure. been president-elect donald trump has won michigan 16 electoral votes by fewer than 11,000 votes. victorye veteran if id today nearly three week afters the election. margin out ofage 4.8 million votes is the closest presidential race in michigan in
2:39 pm
than 75 years. jill stein candidate is expected to ask for recount. chemical weapons watchdog is poisong syria for using war.uring civil it has concluding syrian government forcers were behind involving chlorine gas. chemical as using weapons. the mayor of london says the will stay strong providing a approach it taking upcoming talks. single market access and easy access to foreign towns must be retained. ehe's urging the british government to release short term brexit.nty over a day news e24 hours
2:40 pm
powered by 2600 journalist and analysts. courtney collins. this is bloomberg. >> thank you so much. selling author tom friedman joins us. this is bloomberg.
2:41 pm
2:42 pm
>> this is bloomberg markets. president-elect donald trump busy holding cabinet meeting tries to fill many jobs including post of secretary state. betty lou is standing by with a special guest who knows about global affairs. >> he does know a thing or two. he maybe one of the few who knows a lot about global
2:43 pm
affairs. i'm joined by tom friedman, the "new york times" columnist and the new book "thank you for being late and optimist the age ofriving in acceleration." so good to see you today. you.ank >> let's talk about some of the news of the day. which is president-elect donald meeting right now with general david petraeus. headlines coming out over the weekend about whether fit to bey is secretary of state. i'm curious given the context of talk aboutwhere you the conversions of trend between technology, market and climate it's gettingw faster. how do you think the role of has changed state versus eight years ago? the big change has to do with the fact that the macro change is to be secretary of state, for so many years of the united states, especially during war, wa about
2:44 pm
managing and power and strength. and our strength. so much being secretary of state is about managing weakness. weakness. weakness of russia and the weakness of many states around that are falling apart if your hand. managing weakness is hell on wheels. agweakness. let's dig deeper. fit for better person that job when you look at who has been put out there? romney, david petraeus and rudy guiliani. who is the better person fit for that job? wouldn't get into the endorsement business, it is think can -- to be secretary of state now, you have know how to manage the great power relationship. -- also have to deal with we're in this strange geopolitical inversion. friends -- when world gets
2:45 pm
interdependent, our friends can ilus faster -- kill us faster than enemies. viewer todayrg will be affected one way or another. greece is an ally. it's in the eu. greece can do terrible damage to us today. interdepend i want world, your rivals falling is more dangerous rivals rising. china takes two more islands in sea, if chinaa stock market melts down tomorrow, every viewer of this it. will feel same as russia. i don't like what russia is doing in ukraine. i'm glad we're standing up to it. at the same time, if russia to collapse and pill nuclear weapons and nuclear scientists, far more dangerous than anything it's going in eastern europe. >> it's not necessarily a troublesome blush
2:46 pm
president-elect donald trump wants to work closer with russia? atnothing wrong with that all. there's very few big problems in the world we can solve whether syria orng about climate or nuclear proliferation without russia's help. is on what terms. putinon terms that allow to stomp his neighbors. it's really all about the terms. >> you mentioned in your book, i book.o get into your there are 18 things that the american government should do a single payer health system, to more free agreements to focusing on climate change. oneou were to single out important thing that president-elect trump or congress should do to make america great again. what would that be? >> the basic argument i'm the book, iard in
2:47 pm
think we have to get out of this dichotomy.t-right i don't think that model serves century.n the 21st our two parties built around answering questions of the new deal, the early i.t. revolution and civil rights. i think that the parties of the future have to answer the question of how to respond three great accelerations in the that's globalization, mother nature, climate, population growth and technology. most out of those accelerations. where that take me politically, a singlee should have payer healthcare system. sweden, why can't it work for us on singapore. i would abolish all corporate taxes. i would replace some of the carbon tax, tax on sugar and small financial transaction tax. to get radically in
2:48 pm
order to sustain much more safety nets over here. this fast world it's going too fast for more people. extreme ideas, tom. actually executable? an idea?ctually >> i don't think they are extreme ideas. theink going along with status quo, it would be extremely stupid. >> okay. talk about why -- was the impetus writing this book. >> the world isn't just changing. it's being reshaped. workplace being reshaped. geopolitics being reshaped. communities are being reshaped. reshaped. being after chapter in the book called space."in cyber
2:49 pm
who's rules and values will cyber spacehis where we're all connected and no one is in charge? wek at this election what saw. we saw fake news. we saw post truth. hacking.ople all so much of our live have moved into this realm where connected and no one is in charge. it's a hugely important issue. it's going to get more important everyday. >> you met with president-elect donald trump when he came to the last week.imes" you were actually -- you were on surprised thate he was a little bit more moderate than candidate trump. come away feeling like for there was more hope executing more moderate policy. did you come away from that thinking? >> i was focused on one issue. that's climate and trying to -- trying toelection,
2:50 pm
focus on the climate issue. of things trump can and can't do. even supreme court appointment, may take a long time. decision that he can irreversible. be mitigate climate change. i was focused on that. the question you have to ask which trump? this is someone who learns much talking to people than from reading. certainn surrounded by group of people since his election began. he's now opening his universe up like david petraeus or mitt romney or whole host of other people. he said bill gates called him. to tim he's talking to a wider range of people. that's good and healthy. i would encourage that wider range to get in there. the election is over. the struggle for donald trump has just begun.
2:51 pm
>> on that note, before we go, i know you're close to many ceo's around the country. people like tim cook and others. them?u run these ideas by what did the business people say to you about this? by them.'t run them i was intrigued trump brought it up. i would encourage all the smart this country, in there are many, to get in get in there with their views and ideas. he's entirely up for grabs. he's listening to a wider range of people right now. very important that they get their ideas in there. he's been really clustered with a very small group of people. views. them with extreme it's very important if he's himself up that people dive in there >> so good to see you. tom friedman "new york times"
2:52 pm
and author of the latestest book. back to you. >> thank you so much. we'll see you this evening. be speaking tol governor steven. bloomberg.
2:53 pm
2:54 pm
>> bank of governor canada steve give a speech. he'll be speaking to bloomberg. --w is joe wisen
2:55 pm
currently overnight rate is at top of one percent, which is a record low. lot of head winds now. oilbviously there's a fact has been a major contributor to its economy. still not coming back lots of the oilarts in recovery. there's the fact that it mexico fornd of with exports into the u.s. peso is plungerring. there's the real estate, which hangs out there. people see in the major cities this incredible real estate boom. different moving pieces, real challenge for the canada. >> rising bond yield. that willt rates provide some relief. you wonder whether that's going enough, especially with president-elect donald trump threatening to rip up nafta and changing any kind of trade agreement with canada. >> even beyond nafta, another factor is historically long term canada, trek long term
2:56 pm
rates just like other areas. in other words, the bank of canada's own influence over its only look at england and germany and the u.s. all of these sort of move together. interest rates in the u.s. are rising if they continue to rise, policies.hange in that could have a spillover for canadian rates about 30ll be back in minutes time. canadaup, the bank of governor will be joining us 3:3. take on where interest rates in canada headed. this is bloomberg.
2:57 pm
2:58 pm
2:59 pm
>> it is 3:00 p.m. in new york, 12:00 p.m. in san francisco. bloomberg markets.
3:00 pm
bloomberg world headquarters in new york. we're covering stories in toronto. u.s. stocks are struggling to extend recent highs. and energyhealthcare companies among the hardest hit. with bank interview governor steven poloz. latest from trump tower. from the close of trading. let's get a check how equities fairing. >> we're looking at more what all day.n looking at modest climbs. the dow and s&p 500 and nasdaq trading lower. the big deal here is these break a streak of record highs for all the averages. and s&parly for the dow
3:01 pm
500 through friday, four record closes in a row. for the small cap index down the most of the averages today. breaking a streak of nine record row.s higher in a 15 day winning streak the since 1996. have been trying to take an optimistic view, we weren't so making new record record high. we may finish in the red. for what's happening beneath the surface. we take a look at the s&p 500 imap, we see lots of red. performing well are some of the interest rates including the come -- utilities telecom. let's take a look at the retail stocks after the black friday holiday weekend. looking at red. 's and j.c. penney
3:02 pm
lower. did decline 1.6%. the national retail federation. we have amazon down sharply. down 2%.d s&p 500 17%.e sales actually rose it will be interesting to see if shakes out. banks. sector, the we have bank of america, j.t. morgan and wells fargo trading lower. atigroup and wells fargo to whole. bank evaluation after the election is tough. this sector has been on fire. have the xls for the bank. overp more than 10% november. big breather there. not ay just to take it, very strong risk on or risk off picture. gold to be safe haven.
3:03 pm
we have crude oil creating than 1.5%.ore index sort of crossing each other out. dollar index down for aing day in a row. neutral picture here. investors are waiting for more week.oming later this opec nonfarm payrolls. trump'son donald cabinet appointment. thank you so much. let's head over to courtney collins for first word news. >> thanks. aman plowed his car into group of pedestrians at ohio state university then got out with aan stabbing people butcher knife. he was shot and killed by an officer nine people were hurt one critically. the columbus police chief they're looking into whether it a terrorist attack. classes have been canceled. president-elect donald trump is seriously considering retired general david petraeus to be secretary of state. his seniorrding to
3:04 pm
official with the transition team. he's meeting with the former cia trumpor right now at tower here in new york city. generaled four star left government for sharing classified documents. in cuba thousands are lining up near havana of the revolution week longart of services for former president fidel castro. talked -- josh earnest about the u.s. relationship with cuba in the wake of castro's death the u.s. standpoint, i wouldn't expect any impact on we'rend of progress that committed to making on our end. relationso normalize relations with cuba. government hasn't said whether castro's ashes will be display. pope francis confirmed plans to trip to ireland.
3:05 pm
talks were under way about whether france should visit northern ireland. roman catholic country by sex abuse cases. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalist and analyst. collins, this is bloomberg. >> thank you so much. today.een falls >> i think it was looking a lot quarter.e 4th president-elect donald trump might be good news for the u.s. been good news't for merging market. aople think he might be
3:06 pm
protectionist president. it could be a buying opportunity. >> is it buying opportunity for you martin? >> i hope so. i tend to think if he lowers feel, i think people will good, spend more and that will markets.merging going to seeor you huge in emerging markets if the december?in that's pretty much in 100%. see this in america. the next three to six months request? expect to seeld is a slowing of influx. see.e just wait and certainly a lot of our clients who were positive on emerging back to neutral. lot of the private banks. we see thet's where
3:07 pm
change. is ittin, how important to stick to your dividends in times? >> i think we're very pleased to dividend.ged i think the industry, by that i mean the asset management industry, has a lot of head winds. more regulatory capital, fee pressure, fee income pressure. the rise of passives. of these things pointing towards difficult times ahead industry. i'm not going to give any predictions. unchanged dividend next year. we'll have look and see how you never know, emerging markets may recover hugely. >> they could recover on the exactly?hat
3:08 pm
>> i think they've had five horrible years. i think there's a lot of catching up to do. they're growing well. very well. doing reasonably.wing of course, there's latin countries. they're all doing pretty well in growth terms. >> martin on the call with investors and reporters i believe, you said you like similar deal to janet henderson. are you looking to merge? could finde something like that. asaid that i thought it was very clever deal. to thewant more access u.s. market and the u.s. fund such as janice are keen to go more global. a trend we'll see. planned,ing really sadly in the near future.
3:09 pm
looking?u what's your ideal deal? would you be acquiring someone equals?ger of >> acquisitions are always to integrate than mergers. as i say, we have to look at for the business. this great opportunity, i've in america,to you it's got more than half the world's wealth. be. an area we want to we want to be more involved in. for an opportunity that gives you exposure to united states? is that right? >> yes. i think so. especially distribution in the u.s. always been keen to -- for our product and capabilities to be bought by u.s. investors. gives us that is
3:10 pm
really where we -- but also the the asset industry are looking as well. unique here. >> that was aberdeen asset management martin gilbert. it is cyber monday. growth?eing the kind of joins me next. ecommerce and retail stock. gaining 7 cents, target .9 of one percent.
3:11 pm
3:12 pm
3:13 pm
>> this is bloomberg markets. the number of black friday thepers grew this year but average amount that each person 3.5%.shrunk nationalcording to the retail federation today cyber full swing. our next guest runs companies that help companies find deals. cunningham is chairman of retail me not. cyberto see you on this monday. give us your early read on the stats.riday there are a lot of stores, some opening on not thanksgiving day or malls like not of america that did open on thanksgiving day. did they lose out? on.hanks for having me i think in general, we see black pretty positive when we talk to retailers we've seen our own traffic. went prettyhings
3:14 pm
wealthy in general the deals great. consumers seem really pleased with them. little bit ofa down tick, it's due to stores weren't open on thursday. >> how does this set things up monday?r i wonder if black friday kind of the tone for what happens on cyber monday? >> historically for us, we've tone.hat it does set a good black friday leads to good cyber monday. we feel like it kind of sets the consumers in the right mindset and cyber monday for us ine bigger day terms of revenue and sales than black friday. >> what are the main distinctions between online purchases and in store transactions when it comes how is spent and how many transactions are made?
3:15 pm
>> in stores still dominates the consumer landscape and still really dominate the american consumer for sure. fascinatingost things we're seeing is historically, retailers have run and instore separately. you'll see a great deal online replicated in store. one of the more interesting trends we're seeing this year is a really nice consolidation where they're running that together. they're having a deal that crosses the line and is good online and in stores. we had a huge increase in those this year. going to be a trend you'll see continue. seeing more convergence between online and the store. theme of discounting is something that we've seen over the last couple of years. since the recession. what is new about how these stores are picking their dick --discounts to shoppers?
3:16 pm
a little biting of use of gift cards, some are bigger retailers spend 50 bucks, get a $10 gift card. little bit more around special offers. thingsr door busters and like that. -- it'sighlily discount highly discounted but one or two items. store and getthe you excited. you're seeing more focus this the 30% offybe everything. i say that and we saw some thely big discounts across board from a variety of retailers. broadcould see further discounts later on in the shopping season as well. i wonder, how much dynamic pricing can retailers impose on transactions.
3:17 pm
as airline, when you buy a ticket, you have to buy now. if you go back in a week or two cookies in your computer make it so that you're to pay a higher price next time around. >> there's some retailers able to take advantage of that. most retailers in our experience can't. you still are getting kind of pricing that's good for everybody. if you feel like that's a use.rn, it's easy to incognito setting for your browser. in general, i will say that's less of a concern for most people. shopping around, coming to sites like retail me not and making aware of the coupons that's how to find the best deals. >> that's new when it comes to coupons? >> we're doing two things that are unique to retail me not this year. the first is, we have a variety of discounted gift cards. cards you buy from us at a
3:18 pm
discount. they can be used on your purchase that day. it's called a gift card, you're buying it for yourself to use right now. savings are incredible. off across thent board. really relates nicely to our consumer. peoplesumers tend to be that really want to save money and they're willing to do a lot to save it. you come in and buy gift card use it right now. the other thing we're using more rebates. you spend $10 on a -- we'll give a $50 purchase. two >> thanks to cotter cunningham. today fromjoining us austin, texas. it is time now for the bloomberg business flash. biggest stories in the news now. dick's sporting goods is to digital,ansition .ame changer media
3:19 pm
disclose.or goods has been tweets of sports goods. for the first time since 2009 its own is issuing currency. people hit the streets to protest the bond notes during a currencythe 2008 crash. people saw entire savings and out when they printed so much local currency, experienced hyper inflation. it stopped printing cash 7 years ago. our business flash. still ahead with the opec meeting in the news, we are today'soil and gas in options insight. strategy is next. this is bloomberg.
3:20 pm
3:21 pm
3:22 pm
>> this is bloomberg markets. it is time now for options in with abigail dolittle. >> joining us today is jim strugger. stocks. a quite day for lots of risk events ahead. can you walk us through what is ahead? >> friday was a half day. had a niceyone thanksgiving. three events really. two over the next week. opec wednesday, much waited meeting in indiana. number two is the italian
3:23 pm
referendum next weekend. looking forward to december on the 14th, there's a two day meeting. we'll get their decision on the 14th. almost 100% chance that the fed moves. known risk events. opec.focus on >> we have volatility index near record low. events the big three ahead. what does that tell you? the fall werep combining cyclicality with seasonality and really had event ofa volatility some magnitude. what we got around the election, retrospectively was benign. really to what happened with the outcome brexit. that said, historically, when events, one of those think vicks peaked.
3:24 pm
you move into a trough and stabilize there. equity volatility remains relatively low and end.e into year that's pretty positive a backdrop >> interesting t may point to volatility ahead in the new year. being at those trough levels. eventsst of these risk opec this week. what is options market telling us? showingions market not much angst. we don't have a great view of opec. cover the energy market. extract information. etf impliedrude volatility is 53%. a half ago.nth and term structure has inverted. that's not a surprise. you expect that ahead of event. some angst there. really only other angst out xopp that's the inder exploration
3:25 pm
production. open interest has exploded to $2.3 million. applied volatility is pretty low. both on the commodity side and equity side.dual >> interesting. that's what we would expect. what sortr clients, of creates around opec and oil recommending? >> long gamma. say, options cheap.ely if you long stock, xop, up about 30% year to date. much better than integrated names and the service fames as well. there, just buy downside end.ction into year if you using xop, we're showing or 38 strike puts. you want to be around 30 delta. you can buy about a dollars.
3:26 pm
that's protection on the downside. of have a more positive view the outcome of opec on wednesday, same thing on the upside. keep it simple. go out to december 30th contract. >> great stuff. simple strategies there. us.k you for joining >> thank you so much. still ahead interview with bank canada governor steven to poloz. he addresses a broader form this evening. the sneak preview. this is bloomberg. wow, x1 has netflix?
3:27 pm
3:28 pm
hey, drop a beat. ♪ show me orange is the new black ♪ ♪ wait, no, bloodline ♪ how about bojack, luke cage ♪ oh, dj tanner maybe show me lilyhammer ♪ ♪ stranger things, marseille, the fall ♪ ♪ in the same place as my basketball? ♪ ♪ narcos, fearless, cooked ♪ the crown, marco polo, lost and found ♪
3:29 pm
♪ grace and frankie, hemlock grove, season one of...! ♪ show me house of cards. finally, you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business.
3:30 pm
>> around 9:52 a.m., the emergency dispatch got a report that vehicle struck pedestrians. called out that shots were fired. he engaged the suspect after hitting pedestrian. the suspect cut multiple individuals. the officer engaged the suspect. killed the suspect.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on