tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg February 7, 2017 12:00pm-3:31pm EST
david: from the world had gores in new york, we take you to washington, beijing in the next hour, here are the top stories from around the world we are following. in markets, u.s. stocks with an earlier gain, the dow, s&p just off come a rally in tech shares leading to the nasdaq in a record close of the dollar strengthening against its major peers. devos coulder betsy come down to mike pence, he could make history by breaking an expected time in the u.s. senate over the nomination of her as education secretary, the go expected to take place this hour and we will bring you the latest on bloomberg television. lamborghini latest supercar, its new flagship store, it should arrive in our courtyard any minute and i will speak to the coo of them are getting america later this hour -- of lamborghini america later this hour. >> let's just fast forward.
on,s look at what is going this is sexy, records for the dow and s&p, the s&p a bit lower , not sure if it is a record at the moment but it touched the level earlier before falling to lowe's and recovering to some degree. when we looked at stocks going down, trying to figure out what was going on, one trader told our markets live team that it was perhaps the 10 year yield breaking below 2.4% which triggered the move. look at the bloomberg, this is an intraday chart of the 10 year yield in orange with the s&p 500 in quite and this yellow dotted line around 244% -- 2.4%. when we saw the 10 year yield all below 2.4% as when we started to see stocks go lower. even though the 10 year remains below the threshold, we have stats bouncing up, still trying
to figure out what is going on today. in terms of stocks on the move, strength and technology, the nasdaq 100 is at a record and the dow and s&p, apple rising for the third straight session, at its highest in more than a year, since july 2015, amazon rising as well, and alphabet, strength in big cap technology. we continue cap earnings reports, a few of the highlights, pushing the stock to be the best performance in the s&p 500, national oil, varco, that company revenue ahead of estimates and raymond james points out there were some cost-cutting efficiencies at the company. a hospital company beating estimates. health insurance company i should say, there managed-care membership rising. a couple of other movers, today.rs are on the rise
we got number from hasbro yesterday that powered the shares higher by more than 10%, they continue to move up today, speculating if now is a good time to rekindle talks between these two companies, mattel shares up by 1.9%, this seems to be speculation on the part of the folks at deal reporter but it appears to be enough to push the stocks higher. vonnie: thank you. david: let's look at the u.s. capitol, the vote for the nominee to be secretary of education, betsy devos, taking place, expected to take place in this hour and we will bring you updates. vonnie: we may need a tiebreaker vote. let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> president trump says the -- the immigration been could end up in the supreme court, government lawyers will make their case in a federal
appears court in san francisco and today the president said he is ready to go through the system to get the travel ban reinstated, saying, "we have to have security in our country." paul ryan says the affordable theylaw is collapsing and are committed to rescuing people, paul ryan says lawmakers are taking action, step-by-step, on health care legislation, and plan to finish their work on a new build by the end of this year, however, he says implement a replacement for obamacare could take till 2018. david jones warns in parliament -- if parliament votes down the brexit deal, there will be no renegotiation, he spoke in the house of commons. >> i cannot think of a greater signal of weakness that for the south to send the government back to the european union and to say we want to negotiate further. i think that would be seized
upon as a sign of weakness, and therefore i cannot agree. >> jones was a combining the british government's position during a debate on legislation that would trigger the formal start of brexit. frenchm is -- former president will face trial on campaign finance fraud charges, the paris prosecutor's office says nicolas sarkozy and 13 others will go to court to answer allegations that his failed campaign in 2012 went well above the legal ceiling, he plans to appeal the ruling. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thanks. turning back to politics, vice president mike pence could make history today by breaking an expected time in the senate, to confirm betsy devos as education secretary, you are watching live
pictures of the senate floor, they have begun voting on her. the first test of the democrats ability to sort donald trump -- thwart donald trump's nominations, this is after two gop senators said they would not vote for you how likely will we see mike pence to make the tiebreaker? >> it is looking likely that mike pence will become the first sitting vice president to cast a pick, thecabinet broader story is republicans have begun cracking away from president trump and his agenda, this coming to confirm the department of education secretary pick that has inundated offices with teacher union phone calls, activating the grassroots among the left in opposing the spec. -- this pick. one of the most controversial picks in the new administration.
david: what has the administration done to defend the pick? one gop senator says he does not care that she does not have experience, what is the administration doing to back its case? >> in pennsylvania, senator pat toomey, the republican from pennsylvania, he was pressured heavily by the white house to defend his decision to continue evos because so many teachers unions in the state have inundated his office. they have targeted this white house, republicans who -- progressives and democrats have carefully try to pick off, they have been set -- successful in some cases, pat toomey will be voting with the white house and falling in line. vonnie: we are expecting other key votes this week, including the attorney general, jeff sessions, whom the president talked about this morning.
and various other positions like treasury secretary, could the vote today be a harbinger for what we could see later in the week? >> the other shadow over lawmakers, including dhs secretary kelly, john kelly, who is testifying early today, the looming court decision from the west coast at 6:00 p.m. today in which the circuit court will rule whether or not president trump's temporary travel ban on immigration is constitutional, that could set up a supreme court battle. earlier today, john kelly speaking, actually taking cover for the administration in congress. let's hear what he had to say. >> this is all on me, i should have delayed it a bit so that i could talk to members of congress, particularly the leadership of committees like this to prepare them for what was coming. >> i can say that for weeks top republican aides and members of
capitol hill have been frustrated about the rollout of the executive action that has since launched, not only a political battle but a business one with groups in silicon valley like google and facebook activating themselves in opposition of the executive action. i can tell you that secretary kelly taking defense is sure to call nerves of top republican members who haven't quite frustrated -- who have been quite frustrated as a result of the executive action in which they were worried that would cost the president key political capital heading into the new legislative agenda. toid: since secretary kelly defend it on capitol hill and a representative of the justice department will defend it later today in the ninth circuit, give us the timetable, what to expect tonight at 6:00 eastern time when both sides argued that case before the ninth circuit? >> the white house is prepared to battle, should be judged ruled against this white house,
they will take this to the supreme court. not all of the judges are on the supreme court now. they are prepared to take this battle had on to the american people, their messaging strategy , according to the source i am speaking with inside the white house, has evolved since that rocky rollout of the executive orders. you can also anticipate democrats will pounce on this, this would without question set up a showdown between the business community in silicon valley with the white house, as well as democrats trying to weaken this administration on what could be one of the first key decisions the supreme court makes against president trump. continuing to watch the senate floor, the vote on betsy devos taking place and we may need a tiebreaker and we will bring you results. what about the other issues on the agenda that took a backseat, like the affordable care act, and other priorities for the
administration, will they get back to those pretty fast? >> there are house hearings later this week about the affordable care act and how republicans will decide to repeal and replace -- repair is the new language, part of the aca, known as obamacare, and the have been several meetings followed -- following friday's developments with president try to repeal parts of dodd-frank, republicans on the house financial services committee have been beating and on the senate banking committee to craft out an itinerary in order to set a game plan for how to repeal parts of dodd-frank. when you get the tax reform, that is in the works and i anticipate legislation moving from the house, which will move more fast then the senate, within the next couple of weeks but before the end of february definitely. david: what is going on with jason chaffetz at the white house? meeting with the president. >> a host of issues, one
to a republican member of said this could be everything from a matter of judicial affairs to economic affairs and tax policy. on, wemore on that later continue to monitor the boat on betsy devos, the pick for secretary of education. coming up, we talked to a china expert about if the u.s. does not find a more effective way to negotiate with china. this is bloomberg ♪.
even though it is raining and wet. my coanchor seems to know a lot more about new england than me. david: the same duck boat. vonnie: this is number five, congratulations. david: the rain does not seem to matter to them in boston. vonnie: the senate voting, we will bring you the results live on the confirmation of betsy devos for education. david: the relationship between u.s. and china at a precarious crossroads come the conclusion of a passport on u.s.-china a report out today, they suggest a way forward for both countries, the cochair of the task force on she-china policy joins me, is a professor at uc san diego and joyce beatty from washington, d.c. -- joins us from washington, d.c. we can talk about the economic relationship in a moment, james mattis took a trip to south
korea and japan and talked about u.s. policy toward that part of asia, what did he say and how different debt what his predecessor said in the region -- different than what his predecessor said in the reason? countriesal in those restated our commitment to those countries because president trump had raised question about how committed he was to those alliances. he also said that he believed that our military presence in the region should be supporting the -- diplomacy, particularly in the south china sea. other members of the trump administration had suggested we may use military force to try to push china off the island, that is as -- had occupied for quite some time. that was highly provocative. it could even have led to a
direct military conflict between the countries, said james mattis has cooled the tempers and reassured all parts of the asian equation that u.s. policy will not be as radically different from the past as we thought it may be. david: experts on north korea that i have talked to say it is up to china to make a noticeable change in that relationship, that we have been through sanctions and we need china's participation, are they willing to participate in more sanctioning or taking a tougher stance against the north korean regime? thing,a says the right it says it is complying with the u.s. sanctions, but we believe it could do a lot more. the reason is that it is worried about the collapse of the north korean regime, and it believes that if it titans pressure -- titans pressure on pyongyang,
the north korean regime may collapse and lead to a reunified korea with u.s. forces on its order. we have -- border. we have to recognize they have that security concern and we have to engage in a high level, president trump, we believe, should appoint a high-level special coordinator to work directly with china to address the growing threat from north korea. david: you mentioned maritime islands and disputes, your group advocates formal rules-based approach, how likely is that to happen when you have china rejecting the ruling of international tribunals? is china willing to engage with your rules on the matter of maritime islands? >> china can say do not mention the tribunal ruling to me. it rejects it entirely. xi jinping made a big mistake by
sitting it out, he gave up all opportunity to submit briefs, to help select the judges, whatever. now he says do not mention it. the fact of the matter is this is international law, international law, it is there, line, the expansive claim for almost all of the south china sea, the claim to have an exclusive economic development around land features, rocks that do not come above sea level for most of the year, these kinds of claims really have no standing in international law anymore. i believe the tribunal can be a andl point for a peaceful diplomatic solution in the south china sea. economic relationship we saw preserves that below $3 trillion today, i wonder, how much the chinese government is
reckoning with debt. >> xi jinping is very worried about the chinese economy, and worried that if an economic or financial crisis in china could and to a political upheaval challenge communist party rule. that is why you now have the very strict capital controls. the focus is on control of the economy, rather than market reform. from the standpoint of u.s. businesses, and u.s. workers, what we need is for china to get back on the cap of market reform -- path of market reform even if it leads to greater volatility if the renminbi. david: we hear all the protectionist rhetoric, how much optimism do you retain? report we think
is -- task force report is a smarter more effective way we think to try to push back against the way china is negatively harming our interests. i am hoping that people will read it and there will be a debate about it andy roddick of ideas early ideas -- and the radical ideas of president trump may be modified, he may turn to his secretary of state and the secretary of state tells me i need to keep the one china policy. you may say, he is my man, i will follow his direction just as he said that about mattis and torture. i am hopeful there will be a learning process. david: thank you very much, research professor and chair of the china center at uc san diego, who co-authored the report.
pieces -- visas, the immigration order caused worries, i spoke to of hisho said two employees were affected by the travel ban, one cannot have an elderly relative visit from abroad and another had to cancel a trip outside the country for fear they could not come back to the u.s. 160 biotech executives and scientists and investors this morning wrote a letter to the saying thatournal it was causing major structure and because of fear among sevenees, not in the muslim majority countries only, but more generally, there could be a broader crackdown on immigrants who are critical to doing the basic scientific research and work in these companies that they require to carry out. and develop medicines. david: is this affecting doctors as well?
>> it is, we know that there are u.s. 15,000 doctors in the from the seven affected countries. there is generally a lot of fear that this could cause a general crimping of people wanting to come to the u.s., rural communities are affected and particularly. response who led the to the boston bombers was a greek immigrant here. vonnie: we will get back to you, thank you. that was our biotech reporter. david: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
vice president mike pence, president of the senate casting the tie-breaking vote. betsy devos has been confirmed as the next secretary of education. we are joined by kevin on capitol hill. give us the back story. we assumed we would get to this. when did we learn the senators were going to come out against the nominee? kevin: last week and it sent shockwaves across the administration would thought it would be able to get republicans together in order to ensure all president trump's cabinet appointee picks. this is a win for the republican senate. this is a win for people like paul teller, the former senator staffer who has been working tirelessly with vice president mike pence's political operative -- operation to
maintain votes in the senate to secure what would have been an embarrassing blemish on behalf of the administration as it looks to take advantage of the republican majority in the upper chamber. there were no surprises today while senator murkowski and partyr collins did buck lines, there were no last-minute senators in the republican party who voted against them. this is a win on the republican senate with operation. vonnie: this is definitely one of the nominations that look like it would get the most opposition. does this mean now that we have a confirmed vote and an education secretary that all of the other nominees will get confirmed? kevin: there was a lot of noise in this nomination and that noise reverberated, especially as criticism has mounted across -- against the white house, particularly following the executive orders on the temporary travel ban.
decisionit court expected later today. with regard to the other nominations, i can tell you the the worksnations in include treasury secretary steven mnuchin, there will be a hearing on his nomination expected to be this weekend. i can also tell you that the republicans feel confident that they will now be able to move all of president trump's remaining cabinet picks. this was the toughest, but so far, they were able to clear that hurdle. david: the first time a vice president has had to cast a tie-breaking vote. kevin joining us from capitol hill. betsy devos has been confirmed as the next secretary of education. vonnie: but get a quick check on u.s. stocks. we have markets relatively unchanged. the s&p 500 up .5%. toward up .2% headed
20100 and the nasdaq is the winner today, up .2%. the vix, below 12, a pretty calm market. let's go to abigail doolittle. overall arecks higher today. it is worth noting the major averages are well off day's highs. the dow and nasdaq put in record highs and this is largely the reason. energy is the worst sector for all three indexes and it is at session lows, down about 1.6%, really being dragged down by oil. oil down about 2% and continues -- as supply fears -- this is the worst sector drag. dow, the twohe worst drags are exxon mobil and chevron, both down into busy with oil. as for the boost helping to explain why the dow is up, we are looking at apple and boeing. apple among continued chatter
about an iphone 8 super cycle. it looks like it could be a good thing. when we hop into the bloomberg 563 take a look at g # btv 3 this is a chart of apple we have shown before. onle took a big dive disappointment around the iphone 5 and a huge climb higher on the next upgrade that proved to be a success. last year we saw the big drop down on the iphone 6s disappointment and we are hearing a lot about the iphone 7. a big growth along with the iphone 8 super cycle. this is explaining how the dow and nasdaq put in record highs. will apple hold onto those gains or will they drop? second help to explain the pullback many strategist including goldman sachs and oppenheimer think could be ahead. vonnie: thank you for that.
we will certainly be watching. the stock market hitting new highs today. wharton school finance assessor jeremy siegel predicted the dow would hit 20,000 back in 2015. today on "bloomberg markets," he was asked what now? jeremy: if trump follows the republican agenda, lower taxes and lower regulations, we could easily go 10% higher from here. if he veers into protectionism, currency regulation -- manipulation, we could go 10% lower. i am surprised the vix is as low as it is. that is the volatility index -- given the fact that i can see it can see it 10% higher or lower depending on which direction trump goes. i guess the market says it will be at a standoff for a while and no one is going to prevail in the short run. vonnie: how long might that take
for the policies to be implemented or not implemented as the case may be? jeremy: that is the big confusion. everyone got excited and thought that corporate tax reform was going to be one of the very first things and now, it seems like trump has thrown everything into the mix and there is a little bit more confusion about what will be priority. more and more people thinking tax reform will not be affected until 2018. i still think corporate tax reform will be effective here in 2017. it takes time to formulate it and particularly with the controversy on the border tax, which i do not think is eventually going to be into the bill, hopefully the house will come up with a much cleaner bill in march that the government can move forward on. mark: can you make sense of the lack of volatility right now? you cannot see this chart, but i
will tell you what it is. it is the market risk index. the index of volatility for the four main asset classes. volatility is at monthly lows and the gauge i put on talk is globalon top is the economic uncertainty. why do we see volatility so low across asset classes when clearly economic policy uncertainty is at heightened levels because of these geopolitical uncertainties? jeremy: you have to understand oppositeeally moves the level of the market. when the stock market is at or all-time highs, volatility is low. when the stock market takes a low, people get nervous and they send premiums up and it goes high. one reason the vix is low is the reflection of the fact that there is more confidence. the bulls are coming out and
there is less fear of big market drop. as i mentioned at the beginning of my interview, if he veers into a protectionist mode, i could see a 10% drop. i think there is political risk, but the players in these markets look at where the market is and they also look -- as you --tioned before we came on it has been how many days? 60 days where we haven't seen a 1% move. this data feeds into the computers that tell the players how to play the vix. no past volatility, they say no future volatility. a lot of that is just technical. i agree with you. if trump moves in an adverse direction, you will see the vix jump up 14, 15, 16. i might be a short-term buyer at these very low numbers.
mark: what measures do you look at? another chart you cannot see is bond yields and bank of america has said watch out for the combination of rising yields and rising gold prices because if we see that happen in combination for an extended period -- a few quarters, that could herald a lot of volatility as it did in the early 1970's in the bond black monday in 1997. the you have indicators that might tell us we are storing up possible volatility going forward? trump has been collected, we have seen inflationary expectations as marked by the difference between standard treasury bonds and those inflation-protected tips bonds. we have seized arrived -- we have seen a rise -- we have not seen the long-term bond market
fall apart in any measure and i do not believe we will really get much above 3% this year -- maybe even 3.5% in the whole cycle. people still like these bonds. they are diversifiers and they are safety. if there is financial risk, it is what people cling to. there is a huge demand for treasuries. i do not know whether we will get a lot of challenge from the interest-rate figures and don't forget, inflation data -- although it did move up, it is very modest. the dollar is strong. we have seen wages far more moderate than we expected. very little pressure from the labor front. really, there is not a lot of inflation out there and i think that there is not a lot of reason to all crowd into gold at this time. vonnie: that was jeremy siegel, finance professor at the wharton school of pennsylvania. aol's chief marketing officer and ceo of makers, allie kline
woman sat next to me, none other than allie kline. makers and af relatively new brand, all about women in leadership and storytelling of women in leadership. how is it doing for you? allie: the timing of what is going on around us around women's issues and particularly the opportunities that women and girls face, there has been a lot of attention and energy put into makers. we have over 500 female leaders from organizations around the world. some of the top women in their field working and thinking about an agenda going forward. caroline: rather than just a discussion aunt debate, it is taking -- discussion and debate, it is taking action forward. allie: there are several commitments leaders can make. number one is the talent pool and recruiting into
organizations. making sure it is a nice balance of men and women and it is diverse. that is a very important factor we have in our own business success and many companies see there is a lot of -- a ton of data to prove your business will be more successful the more balanced the workforce is. what tends to happen in organizations as women do a great job of getting into an organization and into middle-management and then the growth from there, the executive level really cuts off and a lot of the work done here is what type of policies and what type of programs and what type of --tor ship needs to plague take place to help women moved from the middle. as chief in your role marketing officer you said the companies that get ahead at the moment are those that act on data. our company's analyzing the overwhelming amount of data coming in and able to respond to the community as well? allie: i think the ones that are
are clearly making great shrines. as a consumer, with so much coming at you whether it is media, social, internet, it is constantly surrounding us. the more precise and targeted and personalized, the more valuable it is to a consumer and the deeper or stronger the brand relationship can be. that is what everyone is working towards, it is not easy. something that has been around for a long time, so the rules are just now being written. when we do it well and we do it right, we see an explosion in consumer loyalty around this brand. caroline: -- video, mobile, content. how is aol -- through its various brands whether it be techcrunch, or makers --
allie: video is the pillar. whether it is techcrunch and gadget makers and huff post as well as build which we launched in a street-level studio in new york -- those are the brands that are all anchored in a quality relationship between consumers that has a set of content standards that is unprecedented. we do not believe in a lack of an editorial voice. journalismelieve should go away. we believe in the investment of that premier content and storytelling content, which leads to video and one of the biggest trends we see in video is live. we are live streaming the makers conference today so viewers can log into that. live is a huge trend we are seeing, not just for the sake of having live content broadcast, but for having brand
associated-valuable editorially-driven content in .he most powerfully medium the last piece is accessibility. the notion that you would ever do anything that is not mobile first going forward feels antiquated. caroline: having gone through the earnings season of facebook and google, they dominate this space when it comes to mobile. how do you and short a lot -- ensure becomes the number -- aol becomes the number three? the brand--allie: peace. google is very anchored in search and facebook is anchored in social and i think you will know us as being anchored in brand. caroline: before i comes to the yahoo! wasent -- meant to bring in a lot of web users and an e-commerce platform for advertising.
are you disappointed with the timeframe? allie: there are always unexpected things. yahoo! is doing a great job working through the process. we have a lot going on, so we do not spend a lot of time worrying about how long that will take. caroline: you sound optimistic about yahoo!. what about optimistic about females in leadership question mark what do you want people to take with them from this conference? feel: i want them to responsible. it is one thing to consume information. it is another thing to assume responsibility for taking that information and doing something actionable with it. whether that is going back to the thousands of women network on aol and all of our brands and making sure they experience at least a significant scope of what i have experienced, it is lighting up and putting pressure on the other female leaders inside aol -- we have a general counsel who is a woman, a cfo
who was a woman, lydia from "of the new york times" it just .oined us at huff post we have suzanne lindberg, the head of the build brand. we are fortunate to have a lot of female leaders inside the company and it is my responsibility to make sure they take the same responsibility. caroline: wonderful to have you with us. allie: thank you for having us -- being with us and being a female leader. caroline: i appreciate you saying that. much. thank you very caroline hide in the makers conference. lamborghini's next generation supercar is here at the bloomberg headquarters. we will seek -- speak with the coo. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
david: this is "bloomberg markets." ever gaining is coming off -- lamborghini is coming off another record year. they are launching their new flagship supercar, the aventador s. help us understand the difference between the aventador and the aventador s. >> just an s. meanshe heritage evolution, in this case and evolution of the aventador. received.as very well is what our engineers were able to do and the horsepower
from 700 to 740 horsepower and it improves the arriving experience. has a new system for the first time ever in a lamborghini. it gives the car longevity and stability, but that is not enough. we also added the forward suspension with the system that can adopt the driving motor to the customer or the driver and wheele have the full drive system that moves the car basedhe front to the rear on the needs of the customer. the last -- the icing on the cake, is the full driving motor. -- it has an option
where the driver can select how he wants the steering system, the suspension, the engine. more than 24 options for our customers. david: we saw it in the courtyard and people walking by lustfully looking at this car. where is it popular in the united states? alessandro: men around 45 years old -- something like that. we usually sell most of our cars in south florida -- miami is one of the biggest markets together with california and beverly hills, the los angeles area and in texas. the united states is the number one market overall globally. we sell almost 35% of the entire
sales. aventador represented 25% of these cars. david: thank you for bringing the car. i am said it was raining and i was confined. pursuits,check out your destination for the finer things in life. still ahead, our next guest, the fixed income manager of the year, tim schneider will join us in the next hour on bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: it is 1:00 p.m. in new
bloomberg world headquarters in new york we take you from washington to detroit and newport beach. here are the top stories and from around the world. u.s. stocks repair earlier gains. major averages near session lows. meanwhile, the dollar strengthening against all major peers. disney shares falling for a fourth straight day ahead of the results -- watching the impact of lower nfl ratings and the outlook for the film business amid -- ahead of the release of several major blockbusters. -- high inventories and drinking margins and a flat u.s. auto market overshadow a record year of profit. gm is sticking to the 2017 guidance.
we are halfway into the trading day. julie hyman is here with the latest and it has been a little choppy. julie: we hit records and now coming down to the lows of the session. the dow and nasdaq holding onto records, the s&p turning lower. one of the things investors are watching is yields on the 10-year move lower and lower, breaking below to .4%. as the dow holds above 20000 and we put the debate behind us over the significance of the 20,000 round number, it is interesting to note that it did trigger inflow into the etf that tracks the dow. if you look at the price of it as it climbed to the equivalent saw a huge inflow of $1 billion into that etf. just one affect of 20,000 appeared to be drawing more money in.
in terms of what has done the best within the dow jones since it hit 20,000 -- we have apple which has risen 8%, at the highest since july 2015. goldman sachs has been consistently one of the out performers as we had been seeing yields rise. also on the outlook for decreased financial regulation. merck one of the bigger winners up.visa the best group today we are looking at is consumer staples, hanging onto a gain of two thirds of 1%. we've got earnings from a couple of companies, church and white -- the maker of armand hammer products, -- arm and hammer products. over at archer daniels midland, that company blaming weaker than estimated results on poor
execution on the international trading. it says they are taking steps to fix that situation. those shares holding onto a gain of 1.7%. david: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton has more. mark: betsy devos has been confirmed as u.s. education secretary after a nailbiting vote in the senate. betsy devos squeaked through after vice president mike pence cast the tie-breaker -- a first time a vice president has done so for a in u.s. history. a 51-50 vote was the first test of -- to challenge president trump and the gop led congress. trump says the fight over immigration could end up in the supreme court. government lawyers will make their case later today in a federal appeals court in san francisco. the president said he is ready
to go through the system to get the travel ban reinstated saying "we have to have security in our country." the president was tweeting early today about vladimir putin. mr. trump wrote that he does not know mr. putin and has no deals in russia and the "haters are going crazy." his comments drew fire from both republicans and immigrants in congress. david jones warns that if parliament votes down the brexit deal, there will be no renegotiation. jones spoke in the house of commons. mr. jones: i cannot think of a greater signal of we this than for this house to send the government back to the european union and say we want to renegotiate further. be seizedat would upon as a sign of weakness and
therefore, i cannot agree with this order. mark: jones was explaining the british government's position during a vote on legislation that would trigger the formal start of brexit. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you for that. hold your fire seems to be the prevailing themes in the market at the beginning of 2017. investors bracing for fiscal stimulus and also preparing for prospects of higher interest rates here in the u.s. investors might be making a mistake according to our next guest. he says short end strategies will continue to lag. was the fixeder income manager of the year. -- the you say
jerome: people are generally looking for safety from volatility. we are in a continual normalization process for the fed. we see that with the latest announcement last week. are very concerned about the prospect of policy measures in the united states and abroad. -- a likelys likely theme for many investors. what many people have done is moved to money market funds and it has been a remarkable tool to andize to manage liquidity produce positive income and positive returns. most importantly, things have changed. we have had money market fund reform over the past year which will serve to structurally -- vonnie: it looks like we are losing our connection to jerome schneider desk -- he is back.
you were talking about volatility and how it has been crazing investors. why is the vix below 12 and not gotten above 12 really at all? is it really only currency volatility and that rate move we saw was just a one time thing? jerome: not necessarily a one time thing. while volatility is relatively low from a technical point of view and a vix point of view -- people are preparing for unexpected volatility whether from fed policies which will continue the normalization process -- these are things that will weigh on investor sentiment --deploy capital through the through 2017 and 2018. investors are going to want option alley to seek higher returns. they will want option alley -- optionality. investors want to have that
balance, have some income and upside potential, but not leave a lot on the table. that is the balance for 2017 as we see it at pimco. can show thenk we performance and the etf that tracks the fund. jerome: we see it from two different perspectives -- investors looking to move out of money market funds -- the yield have not recalibrated that much while short-term have reduced returns well in excess of a few hundred basis points. effectively, you are in a relatively low risk environment and getting paid for managing liquidity in an actor manner -- active manner. we are looking for folks looking to dericsk. that is where fixed income comes in. short-term strategies at pimco in the bond fund fit the bill
because they provide income in a very low infrastructure footprint. vonnie: you told us recently you were looking for interest rate increases -- but not for the -- until the second half of the year. does the jobs report put a fly in the ointment and the federal reserve statement didn't take march off the table. we also have pat harker talking about march and even john .illiams'comments jerome: williams posted he believes there are three hikes coming. this normalization process from the fed will continue. with that in mind, what we need to think about is march only has about a 15% to 20% possibility of a rate hike. that does not mean all hikes are off the table. i have been saying there is likely to or three rate hikes this year. likely june is more in play than march. investors need to be preparing for the normalization process initially through rate hikes and
ultimately through a recalibration of the balance sheet. vonnie: are you still thinking there is a possibility of three hikes and june may not be the first one? had disciplinee within the wage data last friday, the jobs outlook was pretty good. we averaged 183,000 jobs. it is not necessarily something you can dismiss and the fed will not do so. if they continue to get positive data on the normalization, they will continue that normalization trend. that is something investors cannot dismiss. higher rates are coming and they may be in a slightly more prolonged period. two rate hikes -- if we get upside potential, three may be in the cards.
we are really focused on interest rate exposure. one of the great overlooked asset classes is floating rate notes. the pimco short-term strategy and low duration strategy -- we think they have an asymmetric payoffs. you get the upside in upward rate movements and we don't think rates will be cut in the near-term. from that perspective you can embrace and earn a higher premium in a money market fund. vonnie: what is supply like for floating note rates? jerome: right now we see issuers in the marketplace looking to lock in interest-rate we have now and also coming to provide new issues in the float rate market. one of the things we find attractive is given our credit research capacity at pimco with the 65 analysts worldwide we can understand, underwrite, and dive into the credit minutia. at this point in time, taking appropriate credit risk is prudent given where we are
currently at an 11 year low. john malone and others are saying disney should consider divesting espn. is importance of espn important and the operating income. in fiscal year 2016 the media network made up half of the operating income. it is highest profit generating network. espn leads. in monthly affiliate fees, but the leading position exposes it to the highest risk as well. the tv bundle concept is falling out of favor. ratings fell 11% in 2016. the subscriber base shrunk and disney will launch an online version next year. they are adding streaming services and the revenue remains under pressure because of the erosion of the typical customer base. this studio division has been a bright spot delivering record profit.
$3 billion at the box office last year and let's not forget the theme parks, the company is the largest themepark operator. a new park in shanghai weight on profits. disney expects to break even in this book year 2017. it is still expanding with star wars and avatar seen the traction. disney will make a deal when it does not have anything to do with the calls for espn. there has been speculation it could buy netflix or even twitter. we will get more -- here is analysis from one of bloomberg's best. vonnie: we are joined by paul sweeney, the director of north american research. how realistic is it that espn gets spun off? think it isot something disney is looking to do here. it is almost half the possibility -- profitability of the company. i think they are clearly looking
for ways to take the disney espn franchise into the digital age. i do not look -- think they will look for a spin. vonnie: why wouldn't espn want to get away from disney and be possible on its own? paul: i think they like being part of disney is the big disney balance sheet which allows them of dollars for sports contracts. it has been a tremendous marriage over the last 20 or 25 years. i think all parties clearly want to see that continue to go forward. however, if we see may be starting tonight after the close quarter results, a decline in subscribers and i thought that might raise the pressure on management to think about ways to either turn the business to get it back on a growth plan or maybe spin it out. -- thereere won't won't be a "rogue one" in this bottom line --
paul: movie has been an absolute star for this company. disney does not seem to have too many misses. bob iger and his team spent the end of dollars buying proven franchises like pixel and -- reapingd now they are the benefits. if you take a look at the output for the disney studios, it is year after year after year of multiple potential hits from marvel and star wars and all these other franchises. vonnie: what about the parts of business that aren't movies? paul: the themepark business has been a steady growth business, kind of a high single-digit growth business. they just hit the -- put a $5 billion investment into shanghai, that will not contribute to 2017 profit, but 2018 when they get past the product -- start up cost should
boost. it is a diversified company at most pieces are doing well. the biggest profit generator is espn and the growth rate has slowed. the company needs to think about how to reinvigorate the growth of that segment. david: what you get out of comparing this company to 20th century fox? paul: it is a larger company and much more diversified. fox has done a good job in the cable business and i have great assets. that is a more global company. they get more of their revenue outside of the u.s., but disney has a larger company with much more diversified business interest. the question is -- both of those companies have performed well for shareholders and the businesses have been performing companies havee been very shareholder oriented about returning excess cash to the share -- vonnie: thank you for that, that
was a great breakdown. we will see the earnings after the bell. shares are down almost .2% today. paul sweeney, the director of north american research for bloomberg intelligence. let's have a look at where the markets are trading right now. you will see it is a mixed picture with smaller cap stocks not doing as well as larger ones although it is pretty unmoved for equities. we hit records earlier today. we know the dollar index is strengthening again for another day and that is putting pressure on the euro and also the canadian dollar. is 2.37%.r yield a 10 basis point drop. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
what is moving in the retail space today. julie: we have more pain in retail being led down by michael moore's, shares down by -- kors,el corbat -- michael they are seeing dwindling retail traffic. is one of the company relying on department stores as a channel, which has been feeling a lot of pain as well. tos did leave the door open m&a on a conference call. perry ellis replacing the cfo and that appears to be weighing on the shares. take a look at the bloomberg through the bloomberg intelligence tool -- looking at what happened at retail versus wholesale. retail ended up rising. it is really the pain in wholesale and the company gets about half of -- half and half
of revenue from each source. selling step through other means, including department stores. we also got numbers from gap and i wanted to look at gap over the past 24 hours or so, basically the after hours session when the stock rose and then it fell as a got underway in regular trading. 3%uary comparable sales, up three for the fourth quarter, sales were flat. that is the first time it hasn't seen a decline since the fourth quarter of 2013. even though the company said fourth-quarter earnings came above analyst estimates, an analyst said it was largely because of tax reasons and another analyst said elena -- and in a republic need to complete -- banana republic need to complete brand revamp. we talked about this theme a lot -- this is a chart of apparel manufacturers in white and we have specialty retail in yellow.
we have department stores in the aqua color, all down over the past year and the purple line is amazon. this really illustrates a secular change we are starting to see -- that we have been seeing within the retail industry and how it is playing out with stocks. vonnie: thank you for that. that is julie hyman time for the latest bloomberg business flash. biotech executives are warning about an impending -- of science in the u.s. as president trump at restrictions for skilled immigrants to the travel ban. $400 billion industry relies on the best scientists and lower-level researchers. executives say a crackdown on -- setback send research particularly in the treatment of cancer. the bank of england's policymaker says if the u.k. economy entities on the current
strategy -- accelerating inflection -- inflation may push her to vote on it interest-rate increase. employment and overall -- continue to show resilience since the brexit vote. increasing energy prices means the central bank should be moving toward a tighter policy. that is your bloomberg business flash update. up next, we find out how the creator and director behind the makers conference plans on empowering women to be bold. this is bloomberg. ♪
journalists and in 120 countries. -- i think for five years later with the force of a wall behind it, it has really become a movement and platform. i think a big piece of how it has evolved is we need to reach women everywhere. we have done videos. we are produced our first song. thinking of ways we can reach people everywhere with women's story.
>> and itn men for it is an educational piece whether it is at school, work, play for it >> i think you have to celebrate the men who are speaking out for women's rights. we are trying to highlight the story of those women. other men will see it and get inspired. u.s. -- >> we launched in china and then -- it is interesting. it is one of those things that you want to focus on the countries that need it and we
fail like -- feel like china has the scale. it was a great way. we wanted to have on the ground presence. give us an inkling where you can go next? >> no. >> what can people -- and why we are trying to create an image, action items coming out. we are going to share it not only with the attendees, the everyone joined. that is going to be everything
from how to resolve -- we have a lot of people coming saying what can i do to impact change and we bring these people together. we have started the conference because we have a stage and platform. . -- share their message on stage. how has that changed perhaps what the energy level is? >> it has completely changed your it they women's march happened and everyone came out of the woodwork and said we want was bowled ind
2016 wasn't bold enough. we feel like people are coming here ready to make a change. the feeling of disenfranchisement. progress? >> i think that is a big piece. we have to work that in. we are to make sure leaning across the out, talking to women. >> it is also the beauty makers. >> certainly a political. also trying to shine light on the truth.
-- election has been about they can use for it do you ensure the stories you have have authenticity. >> our stories our personal debts are personal. we are letting them tell their own. -- i think they will both speak to that as well, making journals now is more important than ever. >> i think that is what is going to be interesting. how do we tell these stories and share these stories and shine a light. and take action for. is a political environment from the united states. we have the german and french
election as well. -- i think i can. at the end of the day, we want to take these incredible voices and give them a platform so they can share their perspective and shine a light that is being done from all perspectives. colleague atas our -- makers college conference. coming up shares dropping at lowe's. this is bloomberg. ♪
ahead straight over to bloomberg. -- let's head straight over to bloomberg. sachs ceo and lost talk about stimulus from the donald trump administration. announcement of the new administration tends to be in the direction of a stimulus. not necessarily what they are , lighterout trade regulation and financial services across different industries, possibly military as well.
he says that loosening some of the rules would help the industry overall. investigators with the sec there were violations during a three-hour power outage. they received a wells notice meaning enforcement action could -- orced soon and that is your business flash update. motors postedl record profits. gm's bfo spoke earlier today. >> we will remain committed
acause it balancing -- balancing -- vonnie: joining us now save it was. i'm sure you have some time to listen to the interview. it was polished, but with caveats. there was a lot of uncertainty about the future and a lot of pressure on cost margins. >> gmb expectations on the street. they were ahead of consensus. not a lot of complaints. incentivesin, higher and investors looking at north american margins for it makes the most of its money in north america selling pickup trucks and suvs. it was enough weakness for
message say maybe it is behind us. david: how is seem reconfiguring going forward? -- how is gm reconfiguring going forward? they have got as high as $650 per share. they are saying we can still grow this. you're looking at some of the vehicle coming out. these are crossover suvs they need. a lot of the vehicles they replace our pretty old. gm should be able to boost sales items and get better pricing and profits. can the increase profits offset
with their losing in passenger cars because those vehicles are moving. this is a problem with all of the detroit automakers, right? >> it's a problem with everybody. dealing withs this. another big question, you look at some of the cars with the buick line. that brings up the question is do they need to cut at another plant. -- they said it will go from being the oldest crossover suv line to the youngest. -- about gm intends to do.
>> what she's saying is they want a more -- want to work constructively with trump. workers in thee u.s. and that will be harder. none of that says they need to be building factories in the united states unless they were .oo close something in mexico none of that makes sense if you want to keep pricing discipline in the u.s. cars were on average 12 years old. intothat suddenly come
line and the average went down? you do have natural demand right now. the levels we are coming off of our record sales. courage people have the -- there were older vehicles on the road. the growth is gone and gm has been the best of the u.s. automakers. showu are starting to lower margins, maybe it is time to move on somewhere else. vonnie: thank you. let's head over to bloomberg's abigail. >> we are saying a little bit of
intraday volatility. the s&p 500 is slipping between small gains and losses. biggest reversal is for the 10 year yield. row, the firsta time it has happened this time as year. say this is setting up for higher socks and a lower vix. jim sugar is making the point that this chart of risk is at low, suggesting we could see a massive move higher of risk in
daily press briefing. trump was talking about reform agenda. we are also getting some other headlines. requests forroved assistance in mississippi. sunday river and may not seem like they have a whole lot in common. beer really has driven these parties into one another's arms. we're talking about israel which is had a long-standing conflict with arab nations.
our stories is how over the last 5-8 years some israeli businesses led generally by intelligence has done very well. the israelis excel at cyber security and other computer related defenses and they have been a trim a helpful to golf arab countries including saudi arabia and that is a shocker because very little has been arabented in the way of countries working together and we do so quite extensively. talk to us about some of our
-- slow bar -- >> a silicon valley version of a data minor. in the deep web for u.s. intelligence agencies. they have contracts with the nsa, cia, and fbi. ago -- whenwo years you have spent 30 years into israeli intelligence, you are used to tracking arabs and saturdays and iranians. these are israel's adversaries. email that says we heard the interview and your technology. in somewhatas
disbelief. he then followed up with a skype call. we would like you to go and figure out who these folks are and he did that. that is how they are coming together. >> this is not the lion lying down with the lamb. this is really all about mutual fears. countries,lf arab especially saudi arabia and israel have an existential fear of a ran -- iran.
starlet: we're live at bloomberg headquarters in new york. plus covering stories in washington, massachusetts and london. there goes the rally. after record levels, equities are pulling back. still holding on to their advantage. gold.l look at the texan -- his contention like this a sign of things to come for health care and financial reform? -- pump thel post most crude since 1970. blanche joins us in today's commodity close.
u.s. markets close in two hours. let's get a check on where things are headed. we are still up, but certainly a long way down. >> averages touching record highs today. little change, especially for the s&p 500 which is experiencing push and pull in today's section. let's talk about the push and pull. tobacco companies, philip morris, up. both companies have been making inroads in that area. variouslso watching beverage companies from none.lics -- alcohol to
pastimproving over the four weeks while pepsi did not. so three are trading higher that is on the plus side. on the downside, we had energy. part in pressure -- under pressure because of this week's supplied data. mobil with oil prices. the 10 year yield below 2.4%. points asple of bases we continue to defy predictions. a three-year auction that drew relatively strong demand. one of the things we have looked at is positioning. termsre we looking at in of within the treasury market?
we had a short positioning. people cutting dramatically. here and forimism now, that is not being born out of the market if we continue to see buying out of the treasury market. scarlett: thanks for the heads up. oliver: let's continue to dive in today's market action. kevin, let's talk about what is highs at the dow. basically, we're hovering -- what are we looking at in terms of the valuation question mark has been up over
the last or months. a lot of that is the talk of evaluation. i'm looking at the mrv function. in violation score in this looks at violation for price to earnings and dividend yields. this means over the last three months or so, it has gotten to the point of frothy. waited the violation score based on some of the metrics is showing you might want to get scarlett: a little bit cautious scarlett:. the top and green means it is undervalued? how the violation score is castrated is based on the historical average so it uses these scores. oliver: you can also click
through the sectors for it i want to bring in a soundbite. he was talking about the valuations and what it means for the market. >> i would think about, how high can pes go in this of iraq? right now, they are about 17 times in next year's earnings. i think you will be in the very high teens before this cycle is over. i think the market is expensive compared to history, but will be complaining that it's even more expensive in a year from now. oliver: i'm looking at the price of earnings. you can obviously see this average. at what happened are, once of violations high, it does not mean the markets are going to stop. they can keep getting higher.
>> if you think a higher grocery, you are paying up the and your expect the u.s. market to scarlett: see growth. specifichugh deal with company financials as well. a lot of companies are holding cash. we are waiting for the chop administration to roll out a new law or rule to repatriate that cash without a huge tax burden. most recentt the big talkcompanies, a about cash held overseas. when you look at companies in the s&p, a lot of that cash is right around $1 trillion.
what is interesting is when you lot ofbout how much, a the cash won't so you might actually hold assets. this is a function you brought to us. there's a lot of money over there. >> you want to be able to look at these companies from where they have exposure. maybe they are investing over there. not as much incentive to bring all of that there. oliver: what happens when the over?does come is looking at buybacks versus -- to expect them to ?utting it to new plants can we speculate on that? s&p in blue. the
oliver: both beating the s&p but also the -- the companies that buy recreated >> i think the big picture here is when the cash does come back, you want to see what historically a company has done. definitely something you want to look at. all three of those industries outperform the s&p. oliver: now we have a very different environment. thanks so much. let's check on the bloomberg. mark crumpton is in the newsroom >> with more.
john kelly admits he has some regrets about trumps travel ban. >> i should have -- this is all on me by the way. i should have delayed it so i could talk to members of congress, particularly the leadership of committees like this to prepare them for what was coming. secretary kelly's comment was the most direct acknowledgment that the rollout of the president executives order had been mishandled. in a historic vote, the u.s. senate confirmed betsy devos confirmed as secretary of education. mike pence had to break the tie. >> the vice president votes in the affirmative and the non-from
-- nomination is confirmed. based her to schism from .emocrats >> they got to republicans, but needed three. iran hasr of sarcastically thanked trump for revealing the true nature of the united states. bomberanistan, a suicide struck outside the country's supreme court. at least 19 people were killed, 40 others.
million from the deal. has chosenfounder was art to sell argentine ranches. -- lazard to sell argentine ranches. that is your bloomberg flash update. devos has been confirmed as secretary of education. mike pence had to break a 50-50 tie, a first. democrats held the floor for 24 hours. in hopes of averting another
republican. that's converting another republican did they get close? no. there were two senators who did effect within the republican vote. we are talking about lisa michalski and susan collins, but the bottom line is the vice a historic vote. the first time the vice break at has had to tie. oliver: what exactly is the complaint? union andcher
progressive base activated himself at the grassroots level to flood and and in the new senatorsand anyway offices. the second is all this is happening in a vacuum in which trumps executive orders regarding immigration has created a situation here in washington as well as the country in which they are is an intense divide. even silicon valley has come out against that. a -- say, we are expecting we could have a situation where president trump has to take his case to the supreme court. i want to play for you a clip
about what secretary kelly said about what he said that are false rumors that trumps again order could be expanded. something where there were an additional 12 countries being considered to be put on the list for it is not true. good friends of mine that were on the list asked and i said it is not true. we are right now not contemplating no other countries. >> when you look at this, there were frustrations against republican aides. now, secretary kelly trying to get out in front and take the fall. confirmed.e is who else could face more opposition than expected? asyou've got people as well stephen finish in four
department of treasury. that next hearing is saturday when the finance committee will meet. the was without question one pick betty democrats tried to block. they were unsuccessful. for now, this is a win for the republicans and the white house. coming up in the next hour, kevin will be joined by senator casey of pennsylvania who will get the democrats view of trumps pick. oliver: still ahead, record fourth-quarter sales for general motors. that is next. this is bloomberg.
oliver: this is number markets. scarlett: general motors reported record-breaking earnings. closely field by north america with $12 billion in profit shares down on the larger inventories. america,erg daybreak chuck stevens was asked about a tax plan currently and the house of representatives. support tax reform. we believe the border adjusted taxes are too complex. what we really want to do is work with the administration to make sure did changes beneficial to the united states and manufacturing competitiveness leading to growth and jobs for it when want to be part of the
solutions going forward. oliver: the vortex might actually hurt gm and make up for it by other tax reforms and tax cuts? >> i think it's too early to speculate how early this plays out. thatnt to work to ensure it is best for the u.s. economy and manufacturing. a strong base is good for the u.s. and jobs in the u.s. oliver: oliver:are you having discussions with congress about specifically the auto industry? ofwe are engaged on a number regulatory tax reform and other issues. again, we want to be part of that discussion and be part of the oliver: constructive solutions. oliver:we have seen several
times now -- as the chief financial officer, what extent are you adjusting your plans and response to what president trump has urged to bring manufacturing jobs from mexico. >> i think it is one piece of the equation. decision -- you just don't change overnight. we look to make the best decision for employees and shareholders, but again, it is not something you can change overnight. you make those lovely decisions, are you changing your plans? >> we have not changed any plans from a product allocation standpoint. we have 40 facilities in the
united states. we employed 100,000 people in the united states and most recently announced another investment. the united states is important from a manufacturing perspective . what are you projecting into 2017. >> when you look at the results after brexit, brexit is a reality. inis going to be a headwind 2017 or at least the impact from a currency standpoint. as we look at the overall environment, moderate growth, pretty challenging environment. we would expect to see a flat performance. was chuck stevens
actually wrong trend. that is oil. actually down 2%. expectations and yet may have to import the sweetener. sugar off by 2.2%. a safe haven and it is on the rise. money pouring in that tracks the precious metal. see -- it is listed in germany. the white line tracks the shares outstanding. that is the case of demand for that etf. vix is the blue line and hovering on a two-year low.
that has certainly widened the last couple of days. oil dropping by more than 2% today. actually that is gold, here is oil. investigators -- investors are looking tomorrow. joining us now with his globale for oil, head of commodities a bank of america francisco blanche. he has a new report that details present trump will for america's energy future. thanks for joining. future.ng the energy we know about keystone. order made an executive to get the ball rolling on that. this was done on day two, so
clearly sending a strong signal that energy is top priority for this administration. athink we are going to see speeding up of construction. we are already seeing a pretty big increase. frankly, he's going to ease up fracking regulations so all of that leads to a somewhat better production and of course there is the issue on tax reform. we still don't need -- know what the details are going to be. i presume that the details will end up favoring energy development. not sure in which form, but that is a more important factor that
i think trump will try to push through the agenda. scarlett: those are big issues were we don't really know the timeline. when you talk about the dakota access, that is on the supply side. house do to white increase demand? outhat is what we pointed in our peace. we're going to see more supply. that is in the making already because of higher prices. we are going to see a faster increase in production and on other side, there's not many things the government can do to boost assumption. there's obviously limits of a physical package, but in changing epa rolls around feel efficiency will take time. even if epa decides to change
some of the rolls around feel efficiency, it is unlikely any of that will be implemented before the early 20 20's because car manufacturers have already been adapting their vehicles to the rules that were set in place 3-6 years ago. that will have a very limited impact and one of the wrist we have been highlighting to ultimately impact the emerging markets on a negative. it could be a challenge. >> shifting from the raw materials standpoint to what this means for some of the drillers and the companies, we have this new wave of production coming online. perhaps that puts some laid on oil prices. are they going to continue to bring them online or will the v consolidation?
i think we have seen some consolidation indian street and that will continue. some of the majors have been and ig to acquire assets think we will see more of that. they will be a degree of consolidation because there are requiretax changes that more consolidation. show oil has developed from the ground up. seeing, i think we are some of those continue. i still think if prices are see more going
activity. that's one of the reasons the prices for oil will remain well anchored. for the last two months. we have actually seen back in in july ofng down last summer so that is why i think we see a lot of forward selling and the pressure is coming from the front of the market. you've given us the outlook that prices will remain under pressure. wti will it take to bring out of the range of the dollar. >> we are constructive on a short-term basis. we think the stock prices will go to seven dollars a barrel.
that is going to be based on summer seasonals. onwill be based restructuring on output with russia and on the basis of limited supply response from shell. second half of the year, we get starting topplies slip. then, we get somewhat slower demand seasonally. basis, i don't see prices going up much frankly i will takeing natural gas as a guide as to what we will see. that means a lot of producers which were happy to sell at seven dollars a barrel -- $75 per barrel in the past are happy
markets. scarlett: continuing our discussion on oil and gas, we will head to julie hyman. this is like so. down two point 4%. the slowest in 10 weeks. today further, i was looking at the biggest declines within this etf and you get california resources group which is a spinoff. that has not been doing well as of late. this is pioneer natural resources.
analysts predict $.32 a share. you look at that adjusted number, revenue estimated to rise 13%. take a setback. i've also been looking at how the xlt has been bearing. the results have been surprising. we have at of the and white. the two were tracking pretty well. if you look at the bottom, we look at the correlation. that is perhaps u.s. focused companies as we have predictions for opec. as i mentioned earlier, weekly
supply data out of the u.s.. that should also be telling for the xltationship and trade. deutsche bank ceo in israel has tax arrested over a legend -- deutsche bank says it is cooperating with the investigation. turkey is on the hunt for a few good bankers. management is set to be working with international recruiters. that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. turkey will transfer holdings.
investigators with the sec believe the new york stock exchange violated the law during outage.hour the operator confirmed it received a wells notice. that means action could follow soon. 8e nyse was shut on july because of a botched technology upgrade. that is your business update. oliver: the bloomberg makers conference is in full slaying. the theme this year, for the women's conference, be bold. bloomberg's carolina hyman asked her about what it was like to join the women's march last month. >> for the first time in my life i have gone to march there was
nowhere to march. me fromre calling nairobi, from berlin all over the world. i think it is a combination of technology so we can communicate. the good news is it is not only technology, people are willing to go there with their bodies and i'm so relieved to know it contact.mpede human in fact, it facilitates him and. >> most of the marching all sending together as one. what does that take? it is reversing hierarchy. are supposed to do what we are told. if we look at each other, it is very different. because we have the most dangerous present of the united states in my lifetime
and i believe the rest of the world recognizes the dangers. it is very important that we act democratically and empower from the bottom up. -- can you name someone? there have been many in the , but there are people emerging all the time, but it is not about the president only. it is about exercising the muscle and set -- self-government and self decision-making from the bottom up and i think we has social half to payn
attention to legislation and lower levels of government which has kind of taken over by big mrs. -- big businesses. >> you talked about how you had whate from africa, berlin, about the rest of the world? how are they doing the united states? >> i can't speak for the rest of the world, but what i get back is a sense of connectedness and intimacy, which means they are very worried about what is happening in this country, very fearful. i have not been contacted by anybody who thinks it is a good thing so far. so, there is a sense of connectedness and of course are one's not so
in parts of europe right wing is. we are struggling in many of the same ways. the differences there are majority there now that wasn't there before. .his is what has frighten them the old majority doesn't rule anymore. it is also heartening that there is a majority that is concerned about the environment and doesn't want to divide people up by race and religion. majorityough of the came to the polls to vote. >> yesterday. 10 million americans voted for somebody other than trump. archaicave this
electoral college left over from era and the slave states wanted it. changed? be >> absolutely. >> you sound optimistic and many ways to estimate -- pessimistic. >> i am not going to be pessimistic because that made you are defeated. i will be skeptical. hope is the form of planning. was gloria steinem from the makers conference for it coming up, harbored surpasses -- harvard stanford. this is bloomberg.
oliver: this is bloomberg markets. scarlett: harvard university raising $1.2 billion from donations in 2016. that is an all-time high and the most of any school. the fundraising basically helped harvard stay in place. >> actually the value of their endowment fell by about 5% so the fundraising help, but keep -- in addition to the endowment lost, they had their payouts. that fared not so great for them. been better, have but at the same time some of the use of those funds are expected?
>> absolutely. the money goes towards things like financial aid, professor salaries and it is a huge amount of money that comes from the endowment. scarlett: if you come inside, you can see. what you're looking at is ranks. that otherher schools in the direction. one thing the schools have been doing is looking for gifts to offset that. had just -- in terms oft this donations. take a look at what he said.
donors like mr. johnson want to invest in the future. for him, this is an investment. help him, cornell, and the united states of america. to give him a tax break to do that, i think it is important. a lot of the public support for research university is going downhill. . we have to counteract that somehow. scarlett: do you get the sense schools are preparing for less gifts? think endowments and colleges
are thinking about their investment returns. usually they have been a great bolster to fundraising. there is a lot of concern. there is a proposed bill that would make all new donors put 25% of gifts towards financial aid for middle-class students if they want to get the tax deduction. what we have been hearing is a low return environment. endowments can expect the double-digit returns. aller: over a quarter of fundraising comes from 20 schools? that's pretty crazy pretty wealthy or are continuing to get wealthier. you look at harvard and stanford, they are usually the top schools. gap in a pretty big
altra: we are live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york for the next hour. we will cover stories from washington, atlanta, and china. here are top stories from around the world. the nasdaq and dow jones touching all-time highs failing to build on that momentum. the dollar strengthened against most of its major peers. we are from senator bob casey, a democrat who helped leave -- leave the campaign against betsy devos's nomination. what does this signal about further issues with congress? just below three chilean dollars last month falling to the lowest level since early 2011. policymakers and their rattle against outflows. an hour away from the close
of trading, we will get a check with julie hyman here julie: it does not feel like a big record day. moves in thehese major averages. as weuching records today have got an updraft going on particularly in consumer staples. take a look at the bloomberg here. we have come to this frequently over the past month or so. moves on the closing basis are relatively small. we're looking at the 61st calendar day since we have a 1% move in the s&p 500. it has been a long one. it will be the longest small move streak we have seen in the current bull market.
to do withis has earnings. michael out with revenue that missed estimates, a forecast below estimates as many department stores are struggling . general motors coming out with an optimistic forecast for the year but analysts say they are not optimistic general motors can meet the forecast in part because of the high level of inventories now. rounding out, both of them missing estimates on the revenue side. rounding out some of the worst performance for the s&p 500. i want to come back to the biotech index which scarlet mentioned earlier after sean spicer in his daily briefing stillresident trump is considering some kind of a price negotiation or control for drug companies. we saw a drop off after that, though it has covered to some extent, and lower than where it
was before those comments were made. finally, let's take a look elsewhere. the dollar is strengthening for the second straight day though it has given up earlier gains. still up one third of 1%, gains on concerns over europe about the french election. crude oil conversely is down 1.5%. apple supply in the u.s. and gold futures hanging onto the games of about .2%. oliver: a great job. wrapping up his record day for jobs, hopefully not that exciting. scarlet: mi has more from the newsroom. betsy devos was confirmed as secretary secretary -- education secretary. 50-50ence had to break a tie, the first time that happened on a nomination. >> the senate being divided, the vice president votes in the affirmative and the nomination
is confirmed. >> the secretary is a wealth of a poke in donor who advocates school choice. blistering criticism from democrats due to her lack of public school experience and financial interests. democrats staged an all-night , at least three republican senators to join the nomination. he was home and security secretary john kelly defended president trump's immigration crackdown to argue broad authority over national security and demand reinstatement of the travel ban. fromotects "all americans foreign nationals who intend to commit terror attacks in the united states. " a judge has apologized to his
counterparts from -- for overstepping his authority. he agreed he should have consulted other house lawmakers before issuing the van but maintains he might surpass trump for speaking during his visit. france's former president will face campaign-finance -- his -- to court that allegations that it was well above the legal ceiling. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: the u.s. government to grant easement for the dakota access pipeline. a redhead on the bloomberg, a
notice of intent for easement. and -- intent to grant easement for the pipeline. want to look at how earlier today, the nasdaq and the dow hit record highs are the dow continuing at the 20,000 mark, still elevated. faster jeremy -- jeremy siegel is known for protecting that milestone and he continues to belong on equities. he was asked where markets go from here. >> if trump follows the taxesican agenda, lower and lower regulations, we could easily go 10% higher from here. if he is into protectionism and currency manipulation, we could go 10% lower. i'm pretty surprised the fix is as low as it is. a volatility index, given the fact i can see 10% higher or 10%
lower, depending on which direction trump goes. the market says they stand off for a while and no one will prevail in this short run. take forng might it the policies to be in a demented were not as the case may be? >> that is the big confusion. everyone thought corporate tax reform was going to be one of the very first things, and now it seems like trump is throwing everything into the mix. there is confusion on what will be priority. more and more people think tax reform will not be effective until 2018. i still think corporate tax inorm will be effective here 2017. .t takes time to formulate it particularly the controversy on the border tactics, which i do not think will eventually be put in the bill.
hopefully the house will come up with a much cleaner bill in government can move forward on. you make sense of the lack of the volatility right now? i will tie you exactly what this chart is. it is the market risk index, the index of volatility for the main asset classes. we know volatility is at monthly lows. the gauge i put on top of it is the global economic policy index, at a record level. why are we seeing volatility so low across asset -- asset economichen clearly policy uncertainty is at higher levels because of the geopolitical uncertainty? understand the vix really moves opposite the level of the market. when the stock market is at or near its all-time highs,
volatility is low. when the stock market takes a big fall, people get nervous and send the premiums up and it goes high. is ason the vix is low reflection of the fact that there is more confidence now, that the bulls are coming out and there is less fear of a big market drop. as i mentioned, if he veers into a protectionist mode, i can see a 10% drop, so i think there is political risk. the players in these markets look at where the markets -- where the market is. as you mentioned before we came over 60 days, or we have not seen a 1% move. these data feet into the computers that tell the players how to play the vix. to volatility, they say no future volatility. a lot of that is technical.
i agree if trump moves in an i might be ation, short-term buyer at these low numbers. mark: what measures do you look at? another mark -- another chart you cannot see his gold versus u.s. bond deals. bank of america has said watch out for the rising you and rising goal play -- gold prices. if we see that happening for fewnsive -- extensive quarters, that could herald a lot of volatility as it did in the early bond market crash and black monday 1987. you have your preferred indicators which might tell us we are storing up possible volatility going forward. >> one thing, since trump has been elected, we have seen inflationary expectations as betweeny the difference
standard treasury bonds and inflation protected tips bonds definitely rise. we have seen a rise in inflation expectations that we have not seen the bond market fall apart in any measure. i do not believe we will get much above 3% this year and maybe 3.5% in the whole cycle. people still like these bonds. diversifiers, there is safety, financial risk, it is what people cling to. there is a huge demand for those treasuries. i do not know if we will get a lot of challenge from the interest rate figures and do not forget inflation data, though it it is very modest, the dollar is strong and we have seen wages far more moderate and we expected. thatlittle pressure from weaver front. waiver front.
for the dakota access pipeline. we continue to watch that, as we were just talking about those energy changes under president trump. we see those happening. up. at some ofo a look the biggest business stories in the news today. general motors posted record earnings last year and the biggest automaker sees more growth in 2017. gm expects to match or exceed 2016 passes profit. suv's sales of lucrative in north america. gm is looking closely at the impact of a new border tax or tax reform. >> we believe it is too complex and when we look at tax reform overall come we want to work with the administration to is beneficialform to the united states andfacturing capability competitiveness in the u.s.
because it leads to growth and jobs. back slowerscaled models like the chevy care -- the chevy -- scandal by imposing a pay cap for top executives. will thoughmiliar, moremonth on a pay plan, performance than the company's results. a little less than $11 million. that is your bloomberg business flash update your scarlet: still ahead, today's trade is coca-cola, posting latest .esults after a flat year down almost 2%. this is bloomberg. ♪
casey, a democrat from pennsylvania. the ninth district court is expected to rule on president trump us his executive orders on immigration. int is the next step opposing the president's orders? atthe administration i think that point will have to rethink the executive order and maybe go back to the drawing board. i would hope they would do a better job if they want to pursue this to crafting something that is both constitutional but also consistent with our national security priorities. >> what will democrats do ahead of that at the supreme court? >> if they bring this to the supreme court, it is a matter of the court has to dispose of, they have to hear argument on it , if they choose to actually take up the case. the problem that is being missed, this is an executive order that has already made us less safe. michael and others, national security experts, have already determined that.
if they are really concerned they national security, would craft and put forth executive orders that will keep the country safe, and not just .ngage in a political stunt >> there are several cabinet appointee picks making their way through. betsy devos was confirmed despite vehement democratic opposition. what can democrats do? >> we have a number of questions and concerns put on the record with regard to the representative with health, mr. treasury and the epa. >> do you have enough to block these? >> we won't know until the vote time arrives. what americans are seeing an engaging in his real debate about qualifications and public policies that are being debated, and also, giving us the chance
for the senate to advise and consent. talk about that just the other week with regards to stephen mnuchin on the semifinal -- senate finance committee, democrats led by then, like cottage committee hearing, giving no warning to republicans and what you say to people who think this is not how government should work, to show up and engage in the process? >> we wanted to register opposition or even protest against what mr. mnuchin did not do. number one is that he did not answer questions. number two is he gave answers that were found to be totally misleading if not totally untrue. to question about how many modifications, like i asked him, modifications instead of foreclosures, and he says
100,000 is more like 35,000, when you have basic facts like that that are wrong, we wanted to make sure the american people knew that we have real concerns about his nomination and we wanted to highlight that. of course we will still have debate leading up to the vote. >> what is next? >> he is on the counter now, likely to be the next one up, senatornd one up after sessions for attorney general. we will have a lot of debate and see what happens. >> we appreciate you stopping by bloomberg or to question. with regard to the affordable care act, a lot will be underway in terms of policy. what, if anything, can democrats do to slow down this administration? repeal.l oppose it is a mistake and i hope we can stop them. republicanto ask my
friends, it will be seven years in march, where is your plan to meet the promised you put before the american people? compound promised to repeal it and enact something better. i'm still waiting to see what the plan is. we appreciate your time. back to you, scarlet. scarlet: timeout for options insight with julie hyman. is manager at me kkm financial, joining me from chicago. as we were talking about earlier in the show, an all-time high here and yet it is a very small move. have you seen anything today that confirms the record or the uptrend? >> we did see some weakness where we saw selling pressure.
i heard from traders down there, the dollar-yen trade triggered and we saw a reallocation fixed income looking at areas in the bond market. we are still seeing the markets here. record territory. >> one area of strength has been in consumer staples. you're looking at one of those stocks in trade today. in part because of nielsen beverage data to what do you like about the stock here? >> there are a couple of things. moving forward, dollar moderating will help as well. standpoint,ical touching above its 50 day moving average. it looks like the moving average is starting a trend higher. from a technical standpoint, it is higher as well.
>> the stock is down after the five of the past six earnings reports. do you think it will be different? >> i do. it is priced into some degree because of expectations we have seen the stock dip lower. i am looking at how to play this doing it by risk reversal. i am looking at april 4143 risk reversal allows me to sell the 41 foot by 43 call. if the stock moves higher, iwever, if it moves lower, still might get put in the stock at a better level, which i do not mind picking up the stock. some weakness, i am ok with it. julie: thank you. we really appreciate your time. out with earnings on thursday morning. still ahead, we will speak to economist george from oxford.
he is expected to move ahead. hiscrats question commitment to civil rights, opposition to immigration laws, -- president trump estimation's chief foreign officer. says the affordable care act is still rising and repellents are committed to rescuing people from it. lawmakers are taking action step-by-step and plan to finish their work on a new bill by the end of the year. implement a replacement for obamacare could take into 2018. in london, parliament votes down plea.al, there will be no spoke in the house of commons. of a greaterink signal of weakness than this house to send the government that to the european union and say we want to negotiate further.
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