Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  May 10, 2017 2:30am-4:01am EDT

2:30 am
♪ manus: it is "bloomberg markets: the european open" where we bring you the first trade of the day. i am manus cranny with matt miller and here is what we are watching. director trump fired comey amid an investigation into russian meddling in the election. trump said the bureau needs new leadership to "restore public -- restoreonfidence public trust." faces pressurent
2:31 am
from lawmakers when he answers questions on policy. how much detail will draghi give about his plans? an ipo says it plans to take its operation public and a buyback. how will the market react? matt: we are less than half an hour from the european open and european futures are pointing down. on here.e wpi i am going to click in this box, futures, and then we can see the futures trade in the first numbers column and a percent missed price next to it. you can see only the ftse is indicated to open higher today. the cac and the dax are indicated to open down, as are the rest of european markets. let me click into my bond screen yields moving higher.
2:32 am
you can see the real movement today -- let me zoom in -- we have had a real selling off of german debt and that is pushing the yield higher. manus: matt, let's look at gmm. the u.s. equities futures a little lower, a new president in korea. reopeninghe cost be down .9%. the bloomberg dollar index is down by .8 percent. that has more to do with kaplan's comments about the .allas federal reserve yield, turning around. crude, up by .5%. we have the trump side of this trade and the comey sidedness trade, but we have
2:33 am
kaplan, the dallas president saying he is confident u.s. pressures remain and it is possible the u.s. economy will unfold in a weaker way. a lot to digest. how much will the market store value in what trump has done? what does that mean for market risk? had,irst word news to be juliette sally is poised. months to go to the u.k. general election, wooesa may has set out to using a rare joint interview with her husband to show her softer side. her main rival launched the labor parties program for government with a tirade against "greedy bankers and hartline bosses ripping off workers." donald trump has approved arming kurdish forces in syria in the fight. the self-declared capital of the united -- islamic state.
2:34 am
strong objections from turkey which remains the kurdish fighters are linked to militants in their country. prices roseucer more slowly than expected in april, adding to signs of a potential easing of global reflation. the price index rose to 6.4%, below economists estimates. prices in consumer china rose 1.2 percent in april, slightly more than expected. the bank of england probably won't make any policy moves before brexit negotiations are concluded. that is according to the national institute of economic and social research and ahead of the boe's policy meeting isorrow and a rate change expected been. economists say officials will raise their inflation forecasts and lower their growth predictions. eight u.k. business groups as investors should have more power over executive pay.
2:35 am
wantsstitute of directors to force companies to put any pay policies opposed by 30% of shareholders to a second vote. the move would rebuild trust in corporate leadership, which the iod says is facing a crisis of confidence. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt? matt: juliette, thanks very much. president donald trump fired fbi director james comey late yesterday amid the agency's investigation of russian interference into the election. in a letter, he wrote the bureau needed new leadership to "restore public trust and confidence." let's bring in bloomberg mliv macro strategist mark cudmore in singapore. do you see any reaction in asset prices to this news? mark: the initial reaction was subtle but there. the news came out in the late
2:36 am
u.s. day, early asia time in the twilight zone. there was a tick down in the dollar and u.s. equity futures and a rally in treasuries. it hasn't sustained. the asian session was quiet, it helped there was a holiday in singapore. overall, no follow-through in this reaction. there are two arguments in this. the negative side is this is highlighting trump's ability to surprise markets with his rash decision-making, at a time when north korea is threatening another missile test and it undermines his ability to get further fiscal stimulus past. positive view is trump has already shocked so many times before it has lost ability to shock markets. fiscal stimulus is so low it is hard to lower it further. and stretch -- such strong earnings dominating politics.
2:37 am
manus: looking at the dollar, slightly better off this morning. is it politics driving that or the kaplan comments from the dallas fed where he talks about i am not against army growth side -- on the growth side. the economy will unfold a week away. he confident pressures are muted. absolutely, and i think both factors are probably affecting the dollar this morning. the comey story is marginal but had a little impact. kaplan is weighing on the dollar. the market is coming around to the view there is going to be another hike in june that is mostly priced. it is how many hikes we get after that. we may have one more this year and one next year, but no longer a sustained hiking cycle people expected months ago. growth is ok but not running
2:38 am
away. matt: speaking of the dollar, i have to ask about bitcoin. it has been on a pair against the dollar. i have a chart that bloomberg users can access. currency is the command to access bitcoin on your current -- terminal. 15% since the end of march in 1730r terms, to more than -- $730 and an ounce. an all-time high and for the second time in the last five years it is worth more than an ounce of gold. what do you attribute is incredible strength in bitcoin? mark: i think the chinese financial regulation, the capping down is having an impact on bitcoin. bitcoin's most volume is traded in china.
2:39 am
unfortunately, liquidity is not large enough that seriously large investors can consider bitcoin as a serious part of their portfolio. vogue atsolutely en the moment, particularly in china. matt: thanks very much, mark cudmore. you can follow live market insights at mliv . it is a great way to become informed about what is going on on enrolling basis. stay tuned now for a conversation with senator elizabeth warren at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. continue following these developments out of the u.s. and get the latest on the trump administration's move to fire fbi director james comey. coming up, a talk with barclays ceo jes staley faces investors as the agm goes on today. don't miss that interview. plus, we get an outlook for the euro.
2:40 am
what is next for mario draghi now that the french election is in the rearview mirror? we talked to unicredit head of fx strategy to see what is going on with money trades. this is bloomberg, the open is 20 minutes away. ♪
2:41 am
2:42 am
2:43 am
manus: 7:42 in london. 8:42 a.m. in paris and 2:42 in hong kong. juliette saly with the business flash. juliette: president trump has fired james comey saying the bureau needs new leadership to restore public trust and confidence. according to the white house, his sacking was recommended by jeff sessions and his deputy. comey had been leading an investigation into a legend russian meddling in the election and moscow's possible links to trump aids and associate and it is only the second time in the fbi's history its chief has been fired. europe's second-largest insurance is planning an ipo. it could return money to shareholders. 2020 profitd its target including an adjusted return on equity of 12% to 14%. the ipo would take place in the first half of 2018 subject to market conditions, helping up the 2020 goal.
2:44 am
, the biggest dutch lender has reported profits of 39% in the first quarter supported by strong loan growth, cost cuts and higher revenue for activities. offit rose to -- ahead expectations. the company says it is increasing lending to consumers and companies outside its home market. apple's 10-year rally since the arrival of the iphone now sees it become the first u.s. company worth more than $800 billion. shares have continued to rise even as the firm reports slowing sales of its flagship device. 185 -- $185ed billion in market cap. business earnings failed to assuage investor concerns in slumps last year as it continued to lose subscribers. speaking to bloomberg, while
2:45 am
disney ceo defended espn saying it is a product in demand. espn is still a very healthy, very profitable business. one of our most profitable businesses. it has a stable of live sports that it has licensed for a long period of time and will serve extremely well. it is serving it well on a traditional platform and on new platforms, and will see it well for the foreseeable future. it is a product that is in demand. juliette: that is your bloomberg business flash. matt? gains aftersumed industry data showed crude stockpiles decline. training and and the tory overhang. -- inventory overhang. it dropped to its lowest levels since opec agreed to reduce output in november. let's get to tracy alloway in abu dhabi. how much hope will oil bulls be
2:46 am
taking away. considering this month alone or over the last four weeks, we have seen a drop of 14% in crude? tracy: i guess every little bit helps at this point. we have seen the brunt price up about $.17 a barrel, now $48 48.90 eight dollars. it has not been anything on opec. the agreement is expected by the market at this point. we have seen verbal intervention from saudi arabia and russia in recent days, and that didn't have a big effect on oil price. is taking upgy because we had the release of data on u.s. stockpiles, the api data that comes out every week, that shows u.s. inventories drop by 5.79 barrels last week. out,ve the ea data coming
2:47 am
inventories dropping by to million. it speaks to the catch-22 in energy markets right now and that is the idea that as opec manages to push up the price of oil, we see u.s. production coming back on stream? -- on stream. matt: i see your chart of the global benchmark. i typically look at the nymex trade as an american. year, look over the last here is the four week chart, we are down from $54 a barrel to $46. a pretty steep drop. what are we seeing in trader or analyst reaction? i would say the vast majority of analysts right are holding on to their oil forecast for this year, although we have seen one or two cutting back. bnp cutting barrel prices.
2:48 am
we are seeing a bunch of analysts come in and suggest what opec needs to do and what form the production cuts need to take. for instance, we have olivier jakob saying opec should look to cuts.rt, sharp it shouldn't focus on these long-term production declines which may or may not have an outsized impact on markets given that when you are doing those sorts of long-term declines, you have to focus on longer-term forecasts for the economy, refinery, for all sorts of things and those have a much higher margin of error. they are suggesting opec comes in and does these quick cuts and shocks the market. whether or not opec listens, we will have to wait and find out. right, tracy alloway their reporting on oil for us from abu dhabi. manus? manus: we have got to talk about barclays and jes staley, facing
2:49 am
shareholders today. this is at the annual general meeting. his first public meeting with investors since the whistleblowing scandal that put his tenure at risk. to have a chat about this is michael moore. he goes in front of the agm. -- much -- these are british are very american affair. mom and dad can turn out for them. how much handwringing is he going to get? has he had the institutional handwringing behind closed door? michael: there are two avenues for shareholders to express what they feel beyond the meeting. there is focus on his own themction, which you had saying shareholders should abstain from that vote until the regulatory investigation is done, which could put pressure on that vote and you have the
2:50 am
vote on the pay structure for the executives, including staley. those are the votes we will be watching. most people don't expect them to lose on either of those votes, but the margin of victory there is something to watch for. then we will see on just his commentary, how he responds to some of the questions he will face from shareholders on this issue and on the questions about the credibility of his leading the cultural turnaround of his bank. michael, when you look at barclays stock this year to date, it is down 8%. by contrast, the euro stocks index is up 17%. are investors concerned about the performance in markets? michael: i think so. i think the first quarter did raise some questions. you had a couple one off items in their, but certainly they did not pick up share in the way
2:51 am
analysts had hoped for in the trading business. staleyink you will hear talking about the future of the business and how they are close to closing the non-core unit and they can kind of get past some of the legacy issues this bank has faced and really have the core business of the investment bank, the cars business and the consumer business, but there will continue to be questions about how profitable that franchise is. manus: michael, thanks. let's see if jes staley has it in the bank on the votes. thank you, michael miller. you can find. minutes away from the trading day. nottiful day in london, beautiful in terms of equities shaping up. anng for an american a -- american ipo. the stocks to watch. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:52 am
2:53 am
2:54 am
♪ london.:54 in counting down to european trading today. axa taking their u.s. business into initial public offering. in the savings brands united states of american. they are going to ipo a portion
2:55 am
of their u.s. business. we believe the current environment is supportive. the ceo saying the operation -- by doing this it would give them financial flexibility. those are the lines coming through from axa and they hope it to do -- to do it in the first half of the year. matt, you have the comey impact. matt: obviously a top story for us. donald trump firing fbi director james comey amid the agency's investigation into russian interference and last year's election. the president saying the bureau needs new leadership to restore public trust and confidence. let's see how the markets you this. we see futures down, although just a tick down. nowu.s. 10 year yield right is down a little bit as well. investors buying into government debt. the perceived safety, and the dollar index moving down a tick.
2:56 am
we will continue to follow all of the moves in these asset classes as this story develops in the u.s. market wakes up and gets going. coming up, the market open in europe. futures here pointing down as well. the open is next.
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
manus: it is a day for ipo's. breaking news. your favorite. it may not be your favorite sandwich shop were coffee shop, but they are taking the business public. this is owned by bridgepoint plan, a u.s. ipo, this year. they are going to hire jpmorgan and jeffries for the ipo. they are going to take their u.s. business into partial ipo, so ipo day this wednesday. matt. the: i'm taking a look at vix, manus. very interesting we have seen yearear gauge fall to a 23
3:00 am
low. that is the line in white. the blue line you see that is just running off the chart is ,he ratio of calls to puts showing the options market is going to have a rebound in the fix. manus: a rebound in the vix and low volatility in the gilt market and some of the equity markets. this is the market open. we go towards an undecided 73, 44, 45, on the future spirit we were better offered from the start of play when anna and i were looking at these. low-- ipo's -- we are seeing this. i would call it undecided. let us get ready for normalizing. the paris market is up by .8%. let us put it in perspective. anna edwards is standing by for us. anna: let us talk about the european open. a quick some up.
3:01 am
-- sum up. we have a nice makes going on here. a slight bias from the overall move in the stoxx 600. a bit of the trump/fbi effect. that is what the mliv debate was about this morning. uroplasty factor in a little bit of weakness late in the day in the u.s. session anyway. maybe it is the fed we care about more than capitol hill. about that as we get closer the u.s. open. let us talk about european equities in the commodities sector and how much the equity rally could be at risk because of what we have seen in markets. i have pulled up the bloomberg index in the blue. this is the performance of the stoxx 600 a sick resource index. miners, basically. they are headed towards a -- basic resource index. minors, basically.
3:02 am
still worrying about the existential crisis around the eurozone. or threatsese crises around commodities, around politics, play out for european equities in 2017? if we do see weakness and minors, -- that is moved to the gilt open. 1.193% gilts yielding right now. we have seen a rebound in the gilt yields since the middle of april or so. talking about how they liked gilts. neither of them had a rosy view of the u.k. economy in the short term. it looking ahead to the election, some pointing out a little too early to say what the government is going to spend all of its money on given we have not seen the manifestoes around the election and we do not what the government -- the makeup of the government is going to be. the shanghai composite closing up. a little bit of downside move.
3:03 am
ppi numbers looking sluggish versus the estimate and versus the numbers we got last month. is this the end of the reflation trade? is it far too early to say that? manus: one set of numbers does not necessarily change the entire direction for global markets. the us talk about some of the movers. telecoms on the downside. telefonica deutschland down by almost 5% on the stoxx 600. under pressure along with providence financials down. on the right-hand side, you have ksogoing for its ipo -- a going for its ipo. you have pret a manger going for news cominghe through that they will ipo their u.s. business as well. lundbeck delivered
3:04 am
there's. -- theirs. comfortablyme, beating the international pharmaceutical company. they are all on the right-hand side. match. trump, let us of get to our top story today. president donald trump fired fbi director james comey late yesterday amid the agency's investigation into russian interference in the u.s. election. president trump wrote that the bureau needed new leadership to restore public trust and confidence. eneddollar weak while investors bought treasuries. joining us now is the head of strategy at unicredit research. what do you make of the story? how do you think it can be
3:05 am
reflected in markets? >> hi. i do not think it is going to be a big impact, big influence on markets. politicalin perspectivea. it is tricky that the trump administration has moved on to such a development while we have some ongoing and very important intelligence investigations, but having said that, the market right now has been dominated by a number of other fundamental developments. vasileios: what is going on with the european outlook, what is happening with u.s. rates. if anything, i think at the margin, it is adding to the concerns and worries about how the u.s. administration in general moves on from here. manus: you say there is a number of other factors at play. one of them is the federal reserve. it is down. hardly a dramatic move.
3:06 am
it is more obsessed with the perspective from the fed. inflation capacity and he talks about a rather mediocre outlook for growth. that does not inspire me about a fed that can lock and load fully fertile me 17. i think you are right -- fully for 2017. vasileios: think you are right. the next round potential is coming in pretty much price in by now. i think if i was to reflect on the previous fomc meeting, i think it was clear that the fed has gotten a bit worried about the possibility of the market becoming far too complacent and pricing out a lot of interest rate hikes on a 12 to 18 month rise. having said that, i do not see the fed moving aggressively from here. line,g as we move in
3:07 am
pretty much with what the market expects, and given how much is priced in the dollar, short-term moves, we may get a strong dollar. the path of least resistance is for the dollar to go lower. narrativeave seen a or heard a narrative in the past few days and weeks about u.s. growth, the u.s. economic story not panning out the way investors maybe had planned and the european story solidifying and looking a little bit more stable. do you see that playing out as well? vasileios: yes, but in the following sense. first of all, let me just clear one thing. i do not subscribe to the notion that correctly we see a slowdown in the u.s.. i think that the slowdown we saw in 1q is partly seasonal, partly technical. i see steel growth pending ok in the u.s. -- panning ok in the
3:08 am
u.s.. when you take that and contrast what is happening in the eurozone and what is priced into the currency market, as we are coming out of an error of excessive pessimism, in general, not just the currency, i see the balance of risks for higher eurozone assets, including the euro. manus: we will talk about that undervaluation against the backdrop of better growth very shortly. stays withkionakis the team. the president and the ceo of the drugmaker joins us right here on the london that. we will talk about his outlook and a challenges in the united states, and you want to stay tuned because we have a conversation a little bit later in programming. senator elizabeth warren is at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. what does it really mean? this is bloomberg. ♪
3:09 am
3:10 am
3:11 am
matt: welcome back to the european open. i am matt miller at our berlin bureau alongside manus cranny. european markets open for trading almost all minutes so far. you see the stoxx 600 down .1%. the dax and the cac showing a little bit of weakness. the ftse showing just a little bit of gain. overall, un unchanged -- an unchanged picture.
3:12 am
nejra cehic. nejra: starting with a global pharmaceutical company that has risen the most since november. uplook at lundbeck, we are 3.4% on the spirit first quarter ebit cayman at a beach. -- came in at a beat. alk. thing talkt the most since 2010. reducing its dividend by more than one third. broadband provider tackling its debt. we have had revenue missing estimates. all of that eating into a lower open for talktalk. into a lower open for talktalk purity mixed picture in terms of the number. we saw a beat her first quarter sales and it concerned it's forecast. in first quarter coming softer.
3:13 am
overall, that is translating into losses. it is down 3.9%. matt, manus. manus: unicredit has raised the euro-dollar forecast to one dollar 14 at 4% higher than bloombergs median estimate. vasileios gkionakis is still with us. you join the fray, which is the euro is big. you talk about an undervaluation against the backdrop of more sustained ea. this is the euro-dollar one-month risk reversal and we are flying high. you have all jumped on a bandwagon, haven't you? you really have. before, we were initially out of consensus that we have always been constructive, and initially, we penciled in 110 for the end of the year. when the euro was at 105, we felt quite lonely back then. i was feeling reluctant to push it higher than it the mood for
3:14 am
dollar bullishness was amazing. thingssaid that, i think have moved on at the clip -- a faster clip than we initially expected. good news in the eurozone is stronger than we initially expected. we have seen pretty much a complete failure of the u.s. administration to crack on with anything really substantial or meaningful. the market has lost confidence in that amit all her, and at the same time, if you look at the bounds of payment status since the exit is we have a lot of flows in the eurozone of the back of the ecb's qe, they seem to be turning the corner. when these things happen, it is not just the plates, it is a continuation to multi-quarter process. i expect that support. matt: i have a chart showing the
3:15 am
euro-dollar since the election. the red line being the election of macron on sunday. you can see the trend is down. we have a story on the bloomberg saying that macron's assent to the french presidency -- the spd, the competitors, the opposition here telling angela merkel to get rid of fiscal austerity, now that macron is in. people want to get along. we need to talk about eurobonds. isn't that the concern weighing on the euro-dollar trade? vasileios: no, i don't think so. let me say there is an element of truth in what you describe at the political level, but on the price action, let us not forget that we are coming out of four weeks of quite substantial consecutive gains in the euro. so you know, i think the market has played it a bit by the rules. we have seen u.s. yields
3:16 am
gravitating higher from 2.3 now to 2.4%. we have seen the dollar being inerally beat, so you know, just think it is a short-term correction and i will add to this that there is a very strong evidence of dollar seasonality. out of the last 12 to 13 years, there has been only one year that the dollar registered losses, so in general, the dollar tends to be very bid in may. manus: one line coming from the ceo over at goldman sachs, where faces morethe e.u. existential crisis. would you take umbrage with blankfein? we had to get each one of them right, or again, it is an existence a moment and if you lose one of the elections, as a populist that runs, you are dealing with a crisis. do you take umbrage with that?
3:17 am
vasileios: there will always be problems and hurdles at the political and economic level, but i have to say i have grown tired of listening to all these doomsday sayers. there has been progress. you can argue that it is being delayed by political friction, but the fact of the matter is that we have seen the peak and populism. let us celebrate the fact that we are now seeing a turn in the political landscape. let me just make a statement on its. out of all the major developed regions, the eurozone is the only one that has resorted into a full-blown populist government. in the u k, you have brexit, aich in my book is quite closed populism. in the u.s., you have got trump. but on the eurozone. , headvasileios gkionakis
3:18 am
of global ethics strategy at unicredit research, is going to stick around because we are going to talk more about what is going on currently in the eurozone, but in two years, it will not be anymore. one month ago until the u.k.'s election. what does this mean for the bank of england's policy decisions amid brexit negotiations? we will discuss that with him next. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:19 am
3:20 am
3:21 am
manus: -- matt: welcome back to the european market open. i'm matt miller in berlin. i would normally check european markets right now, but they are doing absolutely nothing. let us look because of our top story at u.s. futures here. also, little change. you can see a red arrow there as yields fall because investors are buying in the u.s. government debt and selling in the dollar as well after president donald trump fired fbi director james comey. we are going to talk more about that throughout the day and see how the markets and assets react to that as the u.s. wakes up this morning. let us get a bloomberg business flash. for that, we go to juliette saly. juliette. president trump has fired fbi director james comey, saying the bureau needs new leadership to restore public trust and confidence. according to the white house, comey's sacking was recommended by jeff sessions and his deputy.
3:22 am
comey had been leading an investigation into alleged russian meddling in the u.s. election and moscow's possible links to trump a that associates. it is the second time in the fbi history that its chief has been fired. the second-largest insurer in europe is planning an ipo of its u.s. operations to fund the spansion and potentially return money to shareholders. it reaffirmed its key 2020 profit targets, including an adjusted return on equity of 12% to 14%. the ipo would take place in the first half of 2018, subject to market conditions, helping speed up achievement of the company's 2020 goals. ing, the biggest dutch lender up 39% in thefit first quarter, supported by cost cuts and high revenue from market activities. underlying pretax profit rose to 1.5 billion euros ahead of analyst expectations. it ismpany says
3:23 am
increasing lending to consumers in companies outside its home market. inerson says at deflation the market is waning and expect better pricing power in the second half to boost sales growth. the supermarket group reported first quarter earnings ahead of analyst estimates following cost-cutting after the company's formation through a dutch/belgian merger last year. rally since the arrival of the iphone, the first u.s. company worth more than $800 billion. shares have continued to rise, even as the firm reports slowing sales of its flagship device. climbed 33%, adding $185 billion in market cap. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus. manus: thank you very much. the lines are hardening in the back to negotiations. ambassadors of the countries meet today to discuss the mandate in brussels.
3:24 am
meanwhile, we get a rate decision from the bank of england. no great change expected. the national institute of economic and social research said negotiations will keep the bank of england frozen. rates willinterest remain unchanged until the u.k. exits the e.u. vasileios gkionakis is the head of global strategy at unicredit. there seems to be a move. when i go back to march, the market has ants in his pants pantsa rate -- in its about a rate hike. that is off the table. moving further away from the propensity for a hike. are you in that crowd or standing out alone? vasileios: i think that makes sense, actually. the reason the market has been doing that is largely because we are seeing increasing inflation, which is largely on the back of the sterling depreciation, but this is actually eating up real
3:25 am
incomes. given the size of the uncertainty that the u.k. economy is facing on the back of the brexit negotiations and the brexit outcome, whatever that may be, plus the fact that you are seeing a squeeze in real incomes right now and a potential deterioration in confidence, i think it is going to apply to the bank of england. matt: is carney doing enough then? what you think he needs to do more -- or do you think he needs to do more? vasileios: obviously, that will the pen on the extent of the potential slowdown we are going to see in the u.k. the bank of england right now is probably -- the policy of the bank of england is probably on the right balance, but you know there always the possibility that we may get a downturn which is more severe or extended than a lot of people inspected it to be pure the bank of england tomorrow is likely to revise inflation forecast higher and advise rose lower. it is all about confidence --
3:26 am
growth lower. it is all about confidence. what we have seen in sterling has made the number of assumptions, all of which are individually -- they may be valid, but i'm not entirely certain that in the end, this is where we are going to end up. i still bearish on the u.k. economy and i still have a bearish bias on sterling. manus: very briefly, the best-performing industry in the g10? vasileios: i think you definitely need to see a sizable move towards a soft brexit scenario, which i do not think we are going to get anytime soon. manus: that does not seem to be in the pot at the moment. vasileios gkionakis, thank you very much. global head of strategy at unicredit. ceo joins us. we will talk through his outlook. with novo nordisk.
3:27 am
we will top about his strategy, and what is going on. it is a beautiful day in london. , 7343.97. ♪
3:28 am
3:29 am
3:30 am
matt: president trump fbi director james comey. this amid an investigation into russian meddling in the u.s. election. trump said the bureau needs new leadership to "restore public trust and confidence." the dollar and u.s. futures flip. , the ecb the taper president may face pressure from lawmakers in the hague when he answers questions on policy. how much detail will mario draghi give about his plans? american ipo. it intends to take its u.s. operations public and by back shares. back shares. good morning and welcome to bloomberg markets, the european up and. imf miller in our berlin bureau,
3:31 am
i amside manus cranny -- matt miller at our berlin bureau, alongside manus cranny. manus: are they really reacting to donald trump? i ask myself. we are not lurching any lower in the market. we are much more focused on what mario draghi has to say here in the united kingdom. 2391.5, unclenched. there is not a movement in the market. they are digesting donald trump firing the head of the fbi. very much in their stride. yields rising ever so slightly in the u.s. and the dollar index down by .2%. i think that has to do more with the dallas fed president, who is saying he is questioning growth and questioning the proclivity for inflation in terms of the markets. trump, i do not think he is knocking the markets at the moment. let us see how the debate goes on through the rest of the day.
3:32 am
it is novo nordisk. .anofi they are planning to limit price hikes in the united states following an outcry over the rising costs of medicine. hold its potential growth to single budgets annually. we have the new ceo, lars ceo ofard jorgensen, novo nordisk. a valiant attempt by me. i will get better on the way out. welcome. how are you? congratulations on coming to the numeral. when you look at the united states of america, with the news flow that tom has fire the head of the fbi -- trump has fired the head of the fbi. your whole industry, pricing of drugs, a critical moment in repealing the obama law, what are the big implications as you said as you look at the changing
3:33 am
landscape of the u.s. trump administration policy? lars: short term, looking at 2017, i believe limited impact industry, but i also see the industry is taking actions to address some of the affordability issues on drugs and there has been a lot of talk about developing a higher list price increase. when you look at the net price after rebate, that price increase is limited. we have seen a number of companies taking initiative to also make sure that those who are outside insurance schemes or have higher stocks are helped by giving access to affordable medicine. when you look at the landscape for pricing and the introduction of sanofi, they pledged to limit their prices. you have already made it. do we need to get used to the
3:34 am
fact that pricing is now going to be so commoditized in the business, that this pricing pressure is going to build? lars: we do see more products competing in the long-acting segments, which means more price competition. also lead to price competition. when we look at some of the patient issues, where people in a paying prices, the industry rest -- people should never pay list prices when we get rebates that gets to a lower level of the net price. that is highly complex. we need to be part of solving haveto make sure patients access to their needs. matt: have prices in the past -- free market prices, have they led, in your opinion, two important medical progress? if we turn around and put
3:35 am
arbitrary limits on price increases -- i mean, why say 1% price increases a year rather than 10% or 15%? if we put these arbitrary limits, does that hold medical or hold back medical progress? that the statement from the industry should be seen in the light of the policy environment, were obviously, in the u.s., you have free pricing and you have seen some price increases over the years. when companies come out and say -- we also see we have to play a key role in addressing some of these issues and put a cap on pricing greases. i think that is quite forthcoming. , the industryrket should be part of addressing these issues, and we see the effect of what is happening now, so that is quite good. manus: cap about conversation in the -- you talk
3:36 am
about conversation in the united states of america. you talked about single-digit billion-dollar range we are looking at pharma and hemophilia. what do you do that? you are settling into this job, but you have got a vision. you have been around since 1991. you know what bits and pieces of this business you want to pick up. fill in some of the blanks. lars: it is going to come from our development. we have a very strong machine, a leading portfolio in each territory we compete in. the best part in the market about to bring the product. the majority of growth will come from our pipeline, but we see we have lower growth in what we , but wheniofarma area you have a lower growing area, there is an opportunity to build on products that can accelerate. manus: can we see a deal from your 2017? lars: i cannot comment on that almighty the -- on live tv.
3:37 am
you know that. matt: yes, you can. everyone would know at the same time! [laughter] let me ask about your possible collaboration with the trump administration or with u.s. regulators. have settled a probe into your marketing practices that some people would say is too competitive, and obviously, you have got a lot of other companies looking to take share of the same high. is it better for you to work with regulators so that one policy helps all of you compete fairly? lars: i believe the u.s. market is still going to be a completion market, where there will -- complacent market. it is still a category where you see a significant amount of representatives in the field going out and promoting products, so a lot of the tactics will stay the same, but of course, we work together with regulators and policymakers to
3:38 am
make it possible that we have the right model in the u.s., but i do not see that as something that would be a significant shock to them. matt: you are the biggest maker of insulin in the world, so the diabetes market is first and foremost for you. is prevention maybe the best way to attack this growing crisis? lars: i think you raise a good point here that we are there for if patients, and ideally, you can prevent diabetes, that is really good. we have a number of initiatives. we have a program called city's changing diabetes, where we collaborate with the biggest cities around the world, like houston. we know that today, two thirds of people live in big cities, and that is where you develop diabetes. the long-term issue is that we need to organize ourselves and our societies in a way that you can walk or bike to the office, you can live a more healthy life, and thereby reduce the
3:39 am
growth in diabetes, so we are committed to work with policymakers, stakeholders around the world, and how to organize. we are not developed as individuals. that is a sad reality. eliminating this. that is not likely to happen just around the corner. people have been with companies for the duration. you had a global job. many countries have been there since 1991. what do you hope to change? lars: we need to strengthen the commercialization of our products. we have data to about the products. we need to be a bit stronger in how we bring those values to the patients. products tolign our
3:40 am
the future. when you have more products in a category, you need to raise the innovative height of products you bring to market to make sure you make enough difference. and then, we need to make the company a bit more simple, a bit more agile. manus: is that going to mean a we organization of getting leaner? lars: we last year laid off 1000 people, so i do not foresee significant layoffs. we need to make sure that we structure it in a way that we are focused on what we do and we responsible individuals running the businesses, so empowerment and running it like a smaller company -- i think it is a way forward. manus: if you get a good gig, stick with it. lars fruergaard jorgensen, ceo at noble notice -- novo nordisk. a reminder, if you are a bloomberg customer, you get special privileges. you can cap tv . you get so much of me this week that you do not know what to do.
3:41 am
you have charts, functions, messages, and everything at the i.b. fontan at the bottom. as much of matt miller, manus cranny, francine lacqua as you can get. matt: up next, polarizing politics. our next guest says the real risk to brexit is the divide it will create in a british society. our conversation with carsten nickel, next. stay to enter our conversation with senator elizabeth warren. she has talked about inequality herself at 11:00 yo u.k. time. presidentcus on trump's recent decision to fire james comey amid the investigation into russian hacking in the u.s. election. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:42 am
3:43 am
3:44 am
matt: welcome back to the european market 45 minutes into training right now. we are seeing almost no change at all in the ftse. down .1%nd the cac each. not a lot of reaction in european equity markets to the news that president donald trump has fired fbi director james comey, and frankly, we do not see a lot of reaction in u.s. futures or currencies either. maybe we are waiting for americans to wake up before we start to see real reaction in assets and risk markets to this
3:45 am
news. let us go into -- deeper into our top european stock stories right now. for that, we cross over to nejra cehic in london. nejra: i'm starting with this company. it has been interesting looking at the french banks to see how they have been bucking the week trading trends among other european rivals like deutsche bank, credit suisse, ubs, barclays. done isixis has followed the rivals. fundreturning to management inflows in the u.s.. all of this has resulted in profit beating estimates and the shares rising up almost 1.3%. talking about trading income, this is part of the story for ing, the biggest dutch lender. we have seen underlying tax effort beat in the first quarter. that's profit pretax up 39%, supported by strong growth, cost cuts and higher trading revenue. still, we are seeing the share prices down 1% right now. a bit of a turnaround because we
3:46 am
were seeing ing gaining, so losing face for some reason as we get further into the session. cement, results from current operations before depreciation missed estimates and emerging markets in the first quarter were part of the weak spot. a decline. higher costing parts of europe overshadowed growth in north america. they did confirm the 2017 outlook and said it expects demand for building materials to accelerate later in the year in the u.s.. manus. manus: straight to our top story, president donald trump fire the fbi -- head of the fbi, james comey, amid the agency's investigation into russian interference in the election. in a letter, he wrote "the bureau needed new leadership to restore public trust and confidence." joining us now is our news
3:47 am
executive editor for international government, john. another moment of history in the making from donald trump. in his letter to dr. comey he says "-- director comey, he said "you are not able to effectively lead the bureau." departmentm the of justice. he gets to choose, a understand, who runs the fbi. this is a slow, progressive power sweep. john: that is what his critics are already saying in washington and certainly, this is the most politicized environment that the fbi has ever had to operate in. that was the case even before last night you had the affair of emails,clinton's reopening that investigation before the election. you had the russian investigation, which is something that clearly has disturbed him and told him from the get-go. now, effectively, controlling
3:48 am
both houses of congress. he will get to decide who his successor is, and that really will raise profound questions about the independence of the fbi in the middle of this political maelstrom we are seeing in washington right now. matt: john, our own mark cudmore on the bloomberg mliv blog wrote this morning that people are going to start talking about the possibility of impeachment again because of this. do you hear any of that out there? is that talk starting already? john: it is probably too early for that. certainly, there were some whispers last night in washington if you read some of the commentary that we have not seen anything like this since watergate, in terms of, you know, how a president has acted, and how politically charged it is, but you know, there is clearly a lot of people out there who are looking for donald trump to make a serious constitutional mistake that himd allow them to go after
3:49 am
. whether this qualifies as that, i do not know. it seems within his legal rights to do this. congress will get you approve the next fbi director, but certainly, it will just heighten the already poisonous atmosphere in some ways that is circling around the white house. i want to point out, by the way, that an fbi director has been fired in the past. bill clinton fired his fbi ,irector for ethical reasons but that was the only other example in u.s. history. does this heighten concern among business leaders and among market participants that the u.s. administration makes withouts too rashly, thinking them through? john: possibly, but i think also, if you look at this from the perspective of markets and business leaders, if you look at
3:50 am
sincerkets have performed president has been sworn in, if there was upset, you would not know it to look at the markets. a president who acts extremely impulsively. i think another interesting thing to think about is how foreign leaders around the world will look at this harol hurricane. if you look back over the event of the last two days, you could possibly see early evidence of this. this was in the works. if you are xi jinping or president clinton or angela putin or president angela merkel, you think anything is possible. manus: john fraher, thank you very much. thank you for joining matt and myself this morning. one month to go before the u.k. voters will be asked to choose who they want to -- how they want to leave the e.u.
3:51 am
currently, made's conservatives am a 20 point ahead of corbyn 's labour party. friend of the show, managing director of europe, he joins us now from brussels, carsten. it is always great to have you on the show. when you look at this run-up to sayelection, is it true to europe does not care a darn as to whether she gets a mighty mandate from the country? that is what is being pitched by the european. i put it to you that that is eluded. carsten: you're probably does not care an awful because the outcome is more or less a foregone conclusion. the question is how many additional seats will she win? the second question from the brussels perspective is what exactly will that do to her negotiation stance vis-a-vis you? skeptical
3:52 am
as to whether that changes substantially. she has two more years of time for transitional deal, so the following election is now not due until 2022. that is a positive thing on the one hand. at the same time, it goes to show has cured she already is in 2017, of bringing home a deal in 2020 which is not going to be enough for a society that is deeply polarized. guy: is there any chance, carsten, that the less than 50% apparently of that society who was against brexit wins some ground in this election? carsten: honestly, i think this train has left the station. if you look at the state of the labour party, which is not pro-e.u., if you look at the way in which the liberal democrats have been struggling lately in the local polls, which were seen as a test for the general election, coming up, we are not in a scenario -- i do not think
3:53 am
there is a credible opposition positionpro-european in a u.k., and that is the main problem we are facing. tony blair, maybe he can stand up for that particular voice. logic of here that the policymaking seems to be far from understood in westminster, which it explains. you question the ability of may and her team's understanding of the complexity of agreeing to european workers rights. is -- this administration is there a naivete? is there an understanding of what it will take to deliver brexit? carsten: to me, the biggest problem is that it is an administration that is focused on a societal discourse in the u.k., which is totally different from the discourse in the rest of europe and specifically in
3:54 am
brussels, of course. it is an administration that needs to cave to these extreme demands for a hard brexit, which represents more or less 52% of society. that is the main constraint we are facing here and the one factor -- let's face it, it has never been about parliamentary majority. it is this demand for populist, extremist, eurosceptic policies. that will pose the main risk to a orderly brexit. matt: what happened, carsten, longer-term if the u.k. populace this divide even more sincerely after the u.k. economy takes the heat from brexit? well, it could go either way through the benign scenario from the brussels perspective is of course that you are looking at a situation that is and where some people start to have second thoughts.
3:55 am
if you look at other cases from western europe, where economic situation is deteriorating, it is not usually the e.u. that iters turn to for salvation, is the e.u. that gets blamed. if you look at the current discourse in the u k, and the way in which may is already preparing to blame the e.u. for a potentially bad and painful outcome, then i am not at all sure whether economic pain in automatically leads to growing support for the you again. manus: you talk about the populist surge in the u.k. hasn't france just had a lucky escape with le pen and macron ? carsten: definitely. no doubt about that. i think to me, the main risk this morning's complacency. if i look at the speed with which the market has been moving from nightmares mario's about le policynow talking about
3:56 am
normalization and publicly is mario draghi going to move, the main risk of complacency -- we are only a couple of weeks away from parliamentary elections in france, and it is all but clear that macron is going to get a majority to reform his country. we are not at all out of the woods when it comes to populism on the continent as well. matt: carsten nickel, managing director of europe at 10 euro intelligence from brussels. you can watch mario draghi's q&a today live from 12:00 p.m. u.k. time, when he is quizzed by hague,awmakers in the here on bloomberg television. you can watch it of course on your bloomberg terminal three just type live . stay with bloomberg television. that is it for manus cranny and myself today, although you can dab digital ino, london. up next, it is "surveillance," with guy johnson and tom keene. ♪
3:57 am
3:58 am
3:59 am
4:00 am
guy: comey and the credibility questions. does this undermine the president's ability to pass this fiscal stimulus. reflation reaping. have we passed the peak in global reflation? as no budging at the boe, we await the rate decision tomorrow. will this remain on hold until after brexit negotiations have concluded. this is "bloomberg surveillance ,"


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on