tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 24, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: here are the top stories from the bloomberg and around today, president trump in brussels meeting with the belgian prime minister ahead of the nato summit. from terrorism to trade, we will look at critical issues for investors. big day for central banks, the fed minutes coming in just three hours and two ecb leaders showing a desire to avoid market volatility. they will move slowly towards unwinding the eurozone stimulus. vienna and all signs point to a formal extension of production cuts, will it be enough to sustain the oil rally as opec continues to battle record u.s. shale production?
have a look at where european equities are trading 30 minutes away from the end of the wednesday section. -- session. the u.s. justice department filing a lawsuit against fiat chrysler and the china rate increase weighing on sentiment and the second column is the currency column. most of the currency against the dollar are in gray with little movement and sovereign bonds, commodities, your final three columns. kingfisher is a big recliner across europe, down 7%. europe's biggest home-improvement retailer reporting a slump in french sales as rivals gain market shares sales in france, it 5.5%tes two james and fell in three months through april, worse than the 1% drop in that country's total home-improvement market. shares down by 7.1% today.
let's talk about political risk because the difference in yields between the u.s. 10 year and the german 10 year bond is drinking -- shrinking. investors are fretting over the potential noise stemming from washington, the u.s. 10-year note about 185 basis points more than comparable bonds. the least sense donald trump was elected president in november. european political risk as being washed away and replaced by u.s. anxiety, the words of toronto dominion bank which expects the spread to tighten to at least 150 basis points by the end of the year. a big couple of days for opec, technical indicator are turning bullish for oil and brent crude futures in london rising above their 50 day 100 day, 200 day moving average as opec said to extend its production cuts for
nine months and prices in an upturn as the benchmark for more oil brokethe world's above the 200 day moving average which has been an important technical indicator over the last year. the yellow is 100 and blue is the 200 day moving average. how is it looking at the u.s. trading day? >> muted as it was yesterday but upside for u.s. stocks. one group leading the gains today is materials, steelmakers in particular upgraded over credit suisse, u.s. to outperform the analyst there said prices will recover by late in the third quarter because of strong demand trend and low inventories, and trade dynamics. u.s. deal of three cap percent. -- u.s. steel up 3.5%. oil, after the inventory report, it has turned lower, even after we saw inventory down -- 4.3
million barrels, twice what was estimated on average by analysts . we saw a drop in gasoline inventories. we are still seeing oil inventories in the u.s. about 100 million barrels above the seasonally adjusted five-year average. perhaps that is one of the things pushing oil down. the diversions between oil and thestocks, at the xle, spider etf versus oil prices, oil prices in white, it tends to oil,at when the xle lags oil catches up and comes down and most recently we have seen the xle not recovering as oil has. could we see a come down as it catches up? on ack on deutsche bank bloomberg story that democratic lawmakers have asked me back to hand over its findings on two matters which have been politically charged.
banking on president trump before he became president, and trade from the banks moscow operation that helped move about $10 billion out of russia and bloomberg reporting that democratic lawmakers have asked for more information on the banks investigation into those matters. shares down 2%. mark: central-bank policy taking center stage today, investors waiting the release of the fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. eastern time and 7:00 in london. mario draghi restating the bank's commitment to end asset purchase before raising rates. banks,look at central before we talk about -- that is overseas for viewers. let's talk about china. cut the credit rating for the first time since 1989.
do you have doubt that the leadership of china can rein in them and maintain the pace of economic growth? >> absolutely. they put a lot of stimulus at the back end of last year which has them off to a great start and almost means that they are pretty much guaranteed to hit 6.5% this year. we are seeing a tightening now. i do not think the downgrade itself is material but if you look at financial conditions in china, rising tribal, and on top of that, falling growth in lending. you have this initiative to stop the financing of nonbanking financial institutions. all balance sheet lending as they try to crack down into the second half of the year. those are assets to rein it in but in reality we have seen very little to adjust that. mark: domestic or sovereign debt is mostly held by domestic investors. that shields the country to some extent.
from a ratings downgrade, is that fair? >> absolutely and not much government debt. to do reform, they would have to take private sector debt onto the public balance sheet and even then they would only be up 80% debt to gdp which is not the end of the world and you can see a path where you slow investment growth and grow consumption. over the next five years, 10 years come you can stabilize potentially around 5%. you cannot keep pumping along at 6.5% without doing some sort of reform and accepting a lag. ps no intent of allowing -- he has no antics of allowing that lag. china is a likely to risk, at point, -- a tale risk, at some point it does blowup. vonnie: on the point, currency,y are strengthening little bit by little bit each day. at 6.8779,e yuan
where does that want to be at the beginning of the next five year plan? >> they wanted to be close to where it is now, pricing in very little weakening. and forward market, 3% weakening. you can see they have done a lot to combat that anxiety from president trump around the fact that they may be branded a currency manipulator. going into the con -- they want to be seen in a position of strength rather than weakness. that gives you a strong backdrop for them to protect the currency. what is interesting is one hedge we uses the hong kong dollar, long u.s. dollar as short the hong kong dollar and because they are paid, it gives you a tale risk exposure, if something goes more materially wrong in china, they may be forced because of their closeness to the chinese economy to depeg
and you get a devaluation against the u.s. dollar . vonnie: the u.s. is wrapped up and political goings-on and geopolitical goings-on. china has been expanding, funding projects in latin america and africa. all of these other markets, will that pay off for china to the detriment of the u.s.? >> particularly went around future technology it is more likely to pay off, things like lithium, future car batteries, it very well. and around copper. when you get into other areas, more questionable, they spend money to help prop up the venezuelan government because of the oil production and wanting to get a strategic stake. at the same time, oil prices structurally lower and more pressure on the less stable producers like venezuela. buts not one-size-fits-all
make sense to continue economic growth to be less susceptible to spikes in the cost of inputs a central for their future growth. vonnie: at one point -- mark: at one point did buster rhymes come into your head regarding underlying things in the market. >> turn it up, fire it up, to themes, the turn it upside down the search for inflation. the u.s. election, bond yields in the u.s. have come down and inflation disappointing. five-year u.s. inflation expectations at the lowest rate since the electiont. flation is gone and it is if and when that will come through. the turn it upside down we think is essentially important to future qe and the unwind of qe and we have confidence that ultimately the u.s. can generate inflation. we think that europe, they are
being too sanguine about the risk of the next downturn without having gotten it back" target on a call basis. on the flipside, fire it up, populism of politics which we have seen in france, we got through that fortunately and the polls closing in the u.k., more about non-populism in the case of theresa may. -- andar, italy has election in may and 50% of the vote is concentrated in the wing extremist pipe was parties. vonnie: that's populist parties. -- populist parties. sterling will in the year 120 and the bloomberg consensus, is 126 at the end of the year. they are saying that whatever happens, the u.k. is set for a damaging brexit process. that is why sterling will end the year at 120. have we see me games posed
theresa may calling the election -- posed theresa may calling the elections, do you agree? >> we disagree, we are marginally positive on the pound. we felt it was undervalued previously. it gives you some idea of what was being priced in. we look at on a probability basis and look at different scenarios and we get a number marginally above 130. a chance for a harder brexit but we recognize that is not in the interest of europe and the u.k. taught for a new partnership with the u.k., prior to him becoming president. we believe that will help any negotiations, a less antagonistic approach and a recognition that a one speed europe is set to fail. busta rhymese song? up --n it
mark: you should give us -- vonnie: you should give us a rendition. he comes in, ie will play it in a background. let's check in on the first word news. >> and the u.k., though it is convinced the manchester suicide bomber had help in carrying out this deadly attack. police have arrested four suspects. >> it is very clear that this is a network we are investigating. , this extensive investigation going on across greater manchester as we speak. >> the british government has raised the terror threat level from severe to critical 21st time in a decade which means another attack may be imminent. theresa may is taking unprecedented security steps,
ordering the military two guard landmarks and sporting event. the presidentws, has arrived in brussels on the latest leg of his overseas trip and will meet the belgian king and the prime and mr. p are tomorrow, -- and if prime minister and tomorrow will attend a nato summit. he met with the hope the vatican and the pope gave him a book on the importance of protecting the environment. reportedly lieberman no longer considered for at director coming from cnn which says the president has restarted its search. a number of senate democrats were opposed to joe lieberman even though he was departed that the parties by presidential candidate. --y said the fbi opec and allies are close to extending oil production cuts for another nine months, energy ministers down during to discuss way to prop up prices and revive their economies with the most
influential participants, russia, saudi arabia, iraq, publicly backing yeti of extending the agreement to . next march. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: u.k. soldiers deployed on the streets of london following the monday bombing. --s is the party that vonnie: mick mulvaney is testifying on the budget before the house budget committee. watch us on the bloomberg at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. the u.k. military will guard music and sports events as manchester police investigating network associated with the suicide bomber who killed 22 people at a concert on monday. theresa may announcing the u.k. terror threat level has been raised. >> the threat level should be increased for the time being from severe to critical. this means that their assessment is not only that an attack remains highly likely, but a further attack may be imminent. our u.k. government editor joins us with the latest labor has said it will start campaigning. what do we know about the restarting of campaigning following the manchester bombing?
>> labour will campaign on friday but no details of that. the u.k. independence party will launch its manifesto tomorrow. that will be in the morning and probably the real restart of things. the scottish national party has announced it will start with low-level campaigning. we have not heard from the conservatives and do not know how long they will be carrying on with this. mark: what will the tone of the campaign be? security will be the starting point when parties start to campaign again? >> that will be difficult. raised its has opposition to immigration, emigrants, muslim immigrants in the past will play on that. they are getting a small part of the share of the vote at the moment. the big question is -- what will
labour play on, they were doing quite well in the polls up to the event in manchester on monday night. not concentrating on security and it will be very difficult disease how they will play it. vonnie: are there in the these -- or jogger geography, where theresa may's popularity may not be as i or may have shifted since the changeover of power? >> theresa may has been doing quite well and there is areas of the country. that were not traditional for a territory, conservatives did well in the northeast of england where arehe conservatives
expecting to win seats in the northeast. the areas where they have been doing less well have perhaps been in london where there was very much a vote against leaving the eu in the referendum last year. it has been very regional. mark: it is unusual site around london, places, the security level now critical, the highest level, first time in 10 years, the army are on the streets armed police officers are usually not. we are usually not a critical alert for too long? >> the previous two occasions when the terror threat was critical, it came back down after only a few days. situationvery unusual
for london in particular. they are used to seeing on police at railway stations outside parliament, in downing street but not used to seeing troops in combat uniform with submachine guns. something people who have been to paris or brussels recently will have seen but, in london, very unusual for both residents and tourists. mark: thank you for the update, good seeing you. vonnie: thank you for that. president trump in brussels. there is the brussels prime minister, a bilateral meeting between the president and belgium. he has come from the royal palace where he was met by the belgian royals, the king and queen. that happened a little while ago. he will spend the day in brussels before a nato meeting will take place tomorrow.
♪ mark: time for the bloomberg is this flash, the biggest business stories in the news right now. tiffany that i could help form valentine's day, the luxury jeweler retailer posted unexpected drop in sales last quarter, they have sluggish demand in the americas and asia. a signal the chain faces a slow recovery from a slump and drinking foot traffic at its u.s. stores. the head of italy's second-largest bank is confident he can speed up the reduction of the nonperforming loans. he spoke to bloomberg in rome. >> we are delivering.
work to come back to precrisis levels in 2018 and i am sure we can be in a position to accelerate the plan we have. they are not that interested in becoming a shareholder of the new alitalia and said the bank would consider new loans if the airline comes up with a valid business and restructuring plan. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. that is european stocks or minutes ahead of the end of the wednesday session, this is bloomberg. ♪
the china rating on sentiment and automakers the worst performers with he just sits from it in the u.s. filing suit against fiat chrysler. little to shout about today. interesting call on sterling, blu-ray asset management said sterling is headed lower, yes the currency has rallied since theresa may called the election but begins setting -- selling sterling last week. the median view of sterling dollar and the beer is 126, 3% below the current level of 129 and change. 120 is where they say sterling will end up. on friday, 130-36, 13% weaker than it was before brexit, sterling up by 5% this year. this is gold, we have a golden
cross in gold. it is bullish. a bullish indicator for chart watchers. if anything happens four times in five years, typically it does mark a multiweek trend, the last time gold 50 day moving average cross the 200 and moving average was in 2016. the rally peak 16% above the 200 day moving average compared to .7% above the line at present. watch gold. moodyis a massive story, 's cutting its rating on china's debt. it challenge the view that the nation's leadership will reign in leverage on maintaining the pace of economic growth. it cited the likelihood of a material rise in economy wide debt and the burden this will place on the state finances while changing the outlook to stable from negative.
vonnie: we will look at chinese bonds in a moment. a challenging two weeks for the u.s. dollar with the dollar index consolidation -- little consolidation affect and they chose to show it by the yen which is weakening. the most recent high aroundinde. abigail doolittle will talk thet rising oil though -- 10 year yield up to 29 -- 2.29%, not above the dirty basis point threshold which is important. rise in the two-year, a the last five days as markets placed in a juice -- priced in a june hike. stocks lower in saudi arabia and canada after the bank of canada, , including the peso in which a stronger but still 18.55 on the peso. chinese yields, the five-year is
one of the major movers today, down for basis point -- four basis points. abigail doolittle is having a deeper look at oil. >> this is an intraday chart of oil and we see a lot of tiny moves, u.s. inventories came out today at 1030. a drop-down double and inventories have dropped for the seventh week in a row and we initially had a spike that now it pullback which would be, as investors are on hold ahead of the opec meeting. tomorrow, expected opec will extend the supply cut into the second half of this year and probably the first quarter of next year and investors on hold ahead of that. speaking up on hold, this is a longer-term chart and here is a range, a trading range on hold over the longer term, according to someone from oppenheimer, a
great call, oil is stuck between $43 and $55 per barrel and we see that. a goldentalking about cross in gold and this is a possible death cross and oil, condition to what happens. relative to the range, we could oil go up to 55 and perhaps drop but time will tell. inventories, and why we have u.s. crude inventories and in blue we have u.s. gasoline inventories. and for pool, dissolute inventories -- diesel inventories. crude inventories rising and then they drop seven weeks in a row. you have to believe that the gasoline inventories dropping what perhaps bring the price at the pump and that is true. a one-year chart of gas, overall, rising, up eight cents
from a year ago and $.25 on the lows last all. -- fall. inventories for gasoline, u.s. consumers may not like because it could hurt the pocketbook at the pump. mark: just hearing from the u.k., the two main parties, conservative and labour parties will resume national campaigning on friday as campaign was halted after the manchester attack which claimed the lives of 22 people and at least 60 injured. announcingrties just they will resume national campaigning on friday, less than two weeks before the election. friday will be less than two weeks before the election on june 8. the opec meeting, we have a special guest. have the chief energy
analyst and waiting for the iranians to arrive. wait.nversation as we welcome. is baked in an 1.8 million barrels, no shock at -- is that fair? >> yes, you look at the monitor committee report, it suggests that there will be compliance, they said that we need nine months. they should stay on board in the meeting tomorrow. however, there is always a however. >> what is a surprise? >> it could be, if they were still not to have -- the committee meeting today is not a confirmation from member might say, one
member may say that we do not agree with nine months and just 16 months. -- six months. what if saudi arabia puts pressure on opec members? they went to arrive to have a discussion. look at the five-year average. venezuela -- he said you just cannot say that. give me your sense, someone said the markets are in deficit. do you agree? >> yes, we are in deficit. the first order may have been average but we started off from second quarter in deficit because we see the effects of they have been deluded by the united states shall production coming online and will we see this continue? going too much higher deficits. we may not see the five-year
average within the next nine months because it depends on u.s. production. if there is more, we may require more. >> u.s.-japan reduction, not as progressive and will not trump everything else -- shale production, not as progressive and will not trump everything else. the price can potentially go big but do you see a wall of hedging? they haveis is what been doing, u.s. producers and producers outside of u.s. will take every opportunity. the downside risks have not disappeared. this year, a lot of investment online because of the hedges and currency is lost and they are bringing in that introduction this year and will do it again next year, they have technology on prices on their site and will be proactive in hedging, mexico will heads and other countries will had, you will see a lot of oil next year. >> 1.8 million barrels, where
does the price go and did he saudi arabian's fully engaged with the cuts if they get their ipo out the door before a nine-month deal expires? >> if you get the nine-month extension, you have a supportive prices but the sport may be shortened because of excessive hedging. a choppy ride for nine months. ravensond one, the saudi contribution or commitment, it remains a big question. they should commit. ipo, it isy do the the same. they may have more willing power within opec if you have an ipo. >> thank you for coming. still, the iranians have not arrived. three seasons and one day, storm
clouds above, i hope not and in this vicious -- thank you. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news. >> manchester police chief says authorities leave a network was responsible for the suicide bombing that killed 22 people. r have been arrested a british government has raise the terror threat level from severe to critical 21st time in a decade which means another fourk maybe in a minute -- the first time in a decade which means an attack maybe imminent. the father of the suicide bomber salman abedi cannot believe his son was responsible. he says that he spoke with his son last week to discuss a meeting in libya and says "my
son does not have extremist thoughts." the president in brussels for the tomorrow nato summit and rex tillerson says the u.s. supports a nato principle of collective defense, the idea that an attack on one nation is an attack on all. the president has refused to endorse that portion of the net of charter. the new york times says he is expected to endorse it tomorrow. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: in a bloomberg scoop, deutsche bank asked for files on president trump's family loan and lawmakers seeking details about handling of russian trade. shares of deutsche bank on this report are down 1%. we will have more next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: deutsche bank maybe close to -- it is still waiting for u.s. prosecutors to resolve a potentially more consequential investigation, the fed settlement being finalized and could be announced in coming weeks according to people familiar with the matter and they did declined to discuss any size of the fund which would million the lender has paid the u.k. new york state over lax and time under laundering processes after the fed questions how far the u.s. justice department could come down on the bank? something we will question in a few seconds. vonnie: staying with deutsche bank, a story we broke at bloomberg, house democrats are seeking documents on to
politically charged matters. acting on behalf of the trump family and trade from the moscow operation that helps move $10 billion out of russia. farrell whos greg has been working on the story. we know from maxine waters and four other democrats, they have written a letter to deutsche bank to get details. what will they get the regulators and other authorities have not gotten? >> they want an internal report, a review that deutsche bank conducted more than one year ago into the so-called mirror trade. that is a lot of information that has been shared with the justice department and the financial conduct authority in the u.k. but not the congress. vonnie: is this the first time the congress has asked for this? other agencies are looking at it and nothing criminal has come out yet. >> this is a new front and a
political component to this. they are in the minority, the democrats, maxine waters and other democrats have requested this information and rick -- do not have the power to force the bank to do it and the bank will probably be respectful in their response but interesting to see if they will cooperate. the other request they wanted, in some way separate, any details of the loans at deutsche bank made to president trump, loans may several years ago before he started his run for office as a developer in manhattan. that is something they want to have detail on. mark: the other big story is deutsche bank may be close to settling a u.s. federal reserve inquiry into how billions of dollars moved through the bank and out of russia. do we have any idea of what fine deutsche bank may end up with? >> we do not because this was something, a year ago, when the
review began, look like it could be serious for the bank. for a number of reasons, this investigation has proceeded quietly. we do not have insight into what the thinking of lawmakers is. because it is deutsche bank and because of trump, questions the democrats on the financial services committee have raised as to whether or not the justice department can impartially make a judgment regarding the banks which is an interesting question financially, politically, otherwise. mark: you go. vonnie: it is getting very confusing because russia is involved and so many investigations into political dealings with the donald trump campaign and russia, potentially. how does deutsche bank sidestepped this with it reputation intact? >> the new ceo has put in a lot of effort and energy to try to resolve all of the legal issues
overhanging the bank and the past year and they have made great progress so far. however, especially because of the loans to president trump, they continue to be in the news. the mirror trading investigation is the last major regulatory problem deutsche bank is under in the u.s. that we are aware of . once this is resolved, a great burden off of the bank. because of the reputation aspect of loans to donald trump, they remain in the news until congress has an interest in the subject. vonnie: that will take a little while. story.ou, breaking that there with washington, the budget in focus, mick mulvaney testifying, the office of management budget testifying and steven mnuchin will testify later and we await the cbo's scoring of the gop health care bill. of things will happen
today, watch it we focus on and what to deliver the biggest bombshell -- what should we focus on and what could -- >> interesting to see what republicans say about this budget. we have heard criticism from republicans about the budget and some of the deep cuts. it will be a budget that has to pass with republicans and democrats. it seems like the white house is getting even republicans on board. we want to watch the cbo score about the health care bill that passed out of the house without a congressional budget office core. important for the score to meet a certain target, $2 billion in savings, if they do not meet the target, possible the house would go back and pass the bill again. they had trouble passing it the first time and that would be a major blow to the effort to repeal and replace obamacare. vonnie: the cbo is not political
and any agency like that -- will be $2 billion be found and will it go back to the house for a vote? >> it remains to be seen what numbers the cbo will come up with, republicans have already criticized the cbs and said he have a poor track record of getting the numbers right on even inare but likely the house members who passed this bill do not know what the cbo will do. paul ryan said he is not sure whether or not the cbo number will meet the target they are looking for. that could be a major change to the health care process, if that .arget is not met everyone in washington waiting for the number which we should get sometime this afternoon. mark: what can we expect from the steven mnuchin testimony? >> at the treasury secretary, he has a number of things on his plate but one of the major tasks he has is putting together a tax reform package.
the president of white house put out the budget proposal without details about tax reform. that is something many people were waiting on but with the budget proposal yesterday, no details, just that the tax reform process would be revenue neutral. a lot of members will want to know what are the details and what is on the table, in terms of deductions that may be eliminated and how low the rates could go. what the white house things about the border adjustment tax, a number of different policies and tax reform proposals that the white house has not laid out. mark: thank you, our bloomberg white house performer -- corresponded. a look at food stamps in the u.s. and some data points in europe coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
where we look at some of the most compelling and telling chart of the day and what they mean for investors. axes these on the bloomberg by running the function feature at the bottom of your screen. chris king starting things off that christina kicking things off. >> are we reaching peak exuberance in europe relative to the u.s.? the u.s.s outperformed in terms of stock and currency market this year largely because of robust economic data. data out of europe this week show that expectations for the economy are still quite positive. there is a bit of a gap emerging between the heart -- what we have seen recently. gap between hard and soft data in the u.s. is closing. you see that on the bottom panel . the key takeaway for markets, if the gap between hard and soft,
european economic data continues to widen, the u.s. may look better in comparison. check out this chart. mark: great chart, can you beat it? vonnie: this will be different and educational either way. a social chart. in the budget, a call for the supplemental nutrition assistance program or foods stamps to be reduced by a quarter. the idea in terms of what mick mulvaney says is that more compassionate to how people get off of these programs and do it for themselves, lift themselves up by the bootstraps. we have the progression of this program over the last number of years running in 2007. under george w. bush and previous presidents, it became easier to get access to this as incomeecessary inequality widening to a huge
degree with the great recession really hurting. it is coming back down by its own accord, 42 million people in the united states on food stamps. are is the number that they getting on average, $124.99 per month to support their families. other statistics interesting itut their stance is that has been found that an extra $1 billion is estimated to create or maintain 18,000 full-time .obs, including 2000 farm jobs interesting to see what congress does about this in the budget. mark: i love the social chart but i love christine's chart and it is a tie. this is bloomberg. ♪
p.m. in london and 12:00 midnight in hong kong. i am vonnie quinn and welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories, markets and a holding pattern as investors await the fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. eastern and u.s. stocks little changed, near record with the s&p 500 hovering near the 2400 mark. gainsring earlier following an inventory report as investors waiting and opec meeting report to decide whether to extend supply cards. short seller carson block of muddy waters weighs in on snap, the parent company of snapchat, he says he does not currently have a short position in snap but has three major concerns. a lot to get through and all sorts of hearings and washington, d.c. ongoing. halfway ie
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