Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  June 8, 2017 9:00pm-12:01am EDT

9:00 pm
♪ the middle of what is turning into a dramatic night. indications with the pound dropping as it looks like a honk parliament. hung parliament. at the moment with the way things are going that, well, theresa may after trying to get a mandate for strengthening her hand in order to leave the european union, certainly not got that. on top of that, it does look as
9:01 pm
though perhaps we could be seeing an opposition coalition as well. chart, looking at this the biggest reflection has been the currency markets. towardsd edging down 1.27, session lows at the moment , 1.7 percent fall back or that is the scene outside jeremy corbyn's house. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: uncertainty in the u.k., a hung parliament with conservatives falling short of a majority. plunging theling most since january and raising doubts about negotiations with the european union. the u.k. could be without
9:02 pm
a full functioning government 11 days before brexit talks are due to begin. rishaad: the questions are being the primet minister's future. she may not survive. this is our special coverage of the british election. i am rishaad salamat coming to from our asia headquarters in hong kong. in sydney. haidi lun asia awaking to political turmoil. when will we learn? trump, brexit, and now more political uncertainty, the range of outcomes is starting to narrow when it comes to what sort of situation theresa will be dealing with. to theot arguable contrary that this has been a disastrous results for theresa may and her political future is in doubt. let's haveght, well
9:03 pm
a look at what is going on. we have currency reaction. 9236, this is sterling heading towards a key level of 1.27, a since the middle of april. now sterling in this broad thee, looking at one stage it swing towards labor was not as big as reflected in the exit polls. polls forecasting labor will win 200 66 seats, up 34 seats. snp losing to the conservatives. , bookmakersnutes have started taking narrow odds
9:04 pm
on the next prime minister, not theresa may, but jeremy corbyn. let's have a look at 9241 showing labor betting odds spiking, looking like it could be the labour party being asked to form the next government. to agree to london have a breakdown of what we know so far, and the results are starting to come in, some labor inroads. >> that's right. the pace is picking up. more than 50 results in. the latest include stockton. labor is gaining that one. another part of the country, we saw them holding on to their seats by a margin smaller than expected. labor is starting to outperform in the northeast of england, but places like car while, places we thought -- carlyle, places we
9:05 pm
thought would be easy for labor to gain, but a mixed picture there. we have seen labor do better in wales. the media was talking about the tories going back to a majority they have not seen since the 1850's, but labor now seems back on track leading wales. that is the third most winnable seat for tories in wales was so a mixed picture and it seems like this one is edging towards labor at the moment. thank you so much for that. let's get more analysis. we are getting a fuller picture. let's get it over to london for a bit more detail. this is clearly an upset. we were saying that the list of probable outcomes is quickly starting to narrow. what are we looking at here? say it is early
9:06 pm
and the range of outcomes is reasonably wide. a could end up with reasonable size conservative majority of 30 seats, lower and what theresa may was hoping for, but a workable majority. another scenario is with a much slimmer majority, 1-2 seats, a bit of a nightmare for theresa may or whoever the next prime minister is. third's and our is a hung a range ofhas mathematical possibilities. you could get a conservative minority government with enough support to govern on a case-by-case agenda, but not inconceivable that jeremy corbyn an arraymand enough of of support, a loose coalition across parliament, to govern as well, so it is still early on.
9:07 pm
we don't know a lot more than we knew four hours ago, but the results are starting to trickle in. we should start to get a clearer view of how this will play out. are seeing labor doing quite well across london. these are live pictures of jeremy corbyn's house, a surge in popularity for a fairly unpopular leader. it must be taking him by surprise as well. we are seeing the treasury minister losing her seat. what happens to brexit negotiations now? we are 11 days out. this will be a nightmare. pro-remain, voted strongly to remain in the eu, so you are seeing backlash against that. it is one of the reasons why labor is doing so well.
9:08 pm
you are right. in fear he these negotiations are supposed to start in 11 days. we will have af government to run those negotiations. if we do have a majority, those negotiations will possibly begin. no government, they won't have any choice but to push back those negotiations. this is happening, the clock is taking on britain's membership in the european union. they have triggered the constitutional mechanism under which the u.k. will leave the eu in 2019. in theory, i suppose the next government could go to angela merkel and emmanuel macron and ask for more time. get anyld say you don't more time. you have triggered the two years and you have to get your act together.
9:09 pm
we have gold surging to the highest level in seven weeks. saying, "she is toast, but the tory party can't admitted." her position is tenuous at best at the moment. >> yes, that is true. we don't have the results yet. i think we will have to wait. it is possible that if the results are as bad as the exit polls suggest, she could signal her intention to resign. that is one into the spectrum. the other is if they can form a majority, she might battle on, but the party is suzy damage now
9:10 pm
after this election. rishaad: it seems like a massive own goal by theresa may as well, doesn't it? >> >> it doesn't get worse than this and she did not have to call this election. she had a working majority and authority within her own party. there was no need to do this. lead of 20 percentage points at the beginning of the campaign. again, we have learned that the polls aren't always to be trusted, but the polls are pretty uniform. how she could squander that so quickly and dramatically, that is the real problem, the question she has to face. to be honest, she does not have an answer to that. year,g back over the last we have seen a lot of drama whether it is brexit, trump, or other things, but it is hard to
9:11 pm
think of an example where a politician's scores on own goal as dramatic as this one. you for that. 11:00 in the morning, scenes outside jeremy corbyn's house. he is probably heading for labour party headquarters. that is what we have at the moment. jeremy corbyn, good night for him to say the least. there are other headlines. >> ecb president mario draghi has he eurozone economy turned the corner, but the job market is lagging behind. he said threats to growth are now balanced and has stop saying he may cut rates again. he warned nothing has changed on inflation and employment and said little about how the ecb's bond buying program will continue. james comey has accused president trump in the white house of lying and defaming him
9:12 pm
and dramatic testimony on capitol hill. he said the president vince shifting explanations were "lies, plain and simple." detailed memos of their conversations because he felt the president would alternately paint a false picture of their encounters. administration then chose to defame me and more importantly the fbi by saying the organization was in disarray, that it was poorly led , that the workforce had lost confidence in its leader. those were lies, plain and simple. >> the trump administration's this mental post-crisis byancial rules were approved 233-186. seeninancial choice act is as having little chance of passing the senate and its current form as democrats are unimpressed. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700
9:13 pm
journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: thank you for that. let's get a reminder of the reactions to the political drama and unexpected outcomes so far. counting does continue. take a listen. a good was absolutely her to call,for but the absolute rule should have been, don't take risks. i thought it would be a boring campaign with some very interesting -- ishaad: right, this islington. this is jeremy corbyn. holloway, part of his constituency.
9:14 pm
shaking handss with one of the other theidates, probably from monster raving loony party. house, saw him leave his jeremy corbyn there at the moment. a very good night so far, and it does seem as though the current prime minister theresa may has lost a bit of credibility and could be forced to step aside. we have had a few notable labor wins. polls suggests the conservatives will win 314 seats. the magic number is 326 seats. is needede mark that for a clear majority.
9:15 pm
these polls, she 14 and be shy of that majority. win 266 seats, which should put them in the position of the biggest minority party, second place, and that would be up from 34 seats. scotland expected to do fairly well, and the conservatives to do well in scotland, with the scottish national party expected to lose 22 seats. the remain party, pro-eu liberal democrats come also expected to increase their share. they are expected to have 14. we still have conservative and labor commentators that this picture could change. if you remember last june when we had that brexit referendum,
9:16 pm
things did change and change fairly radically. a bit of caution at the moment. the seed distribution apparently changing by less than 10% after a similar poll in the last election in 2015, so there is talk coming through. haidi: always exercising caution. we are starting to see the pace pick up when it comes to these results being counted. we are seeing a clear picture being painted, and another labour win for the very north. bellwether constituency that has voted for the winning party and every general election since 1983. take that with a grain of salt. we have labor continuing to grain ground -- again ground. reported so 50 c's far, and clearly falling short of that majority, that outright majority.
9:17 pm
the pound trading at a session .ow of 1.2695 given the shock, it has been a pretty muted reaction on the market so far. let's get some analysis from the deputy director of european studies at the university of sydney with me here on set in sydney. are you shocked? >> not really. if british politics have shown us anything it is that they are unpredictable. sort of like him and do we learn our lesson to check our expectations? a lot of people would have put money on the remain vote winning in the u.k. come so it is not a shock as such because what is surprising is jeremy corbyn's radical turnaround, labor's radical turnaround. sudden and traumatic
9:18 pm
him and now a huge swing to labor in britain. one of the surprises is the loss of snp seats. ground afterlosing performing strong and the last election. haidi: we were talking to the peterson institute this morning, saying this is not a vote about brexit or europe. it is about a u.k. deeply divided in the same way the u.s. turned out to be deeply divided following the november election result. is that how you view it? it feels like there were domestic issues. mastic, were indeed the and that is why labor has pulled so strongly. jeremy corbyn has been talking about social, economic exclusion and theresa may's tax, which aims to increase testing for people needing care and their homes. that was an extremely popular move by jeremy corbyn.
9:19 pm
concerns.used also, the terrorist incidents, which one would have taught would have given a philip to the incumbent party and the incumbent party was conservative and usually do well on anti-terrorism, security has made but labor hate that theresa may cut police numbers in the u.k., and that has been getting airtime as well. haidi: the forecast from the bbc, 322 seats for the tories, 261 for labor. what is the possibility we will get a dysfunctional or non-functioning government, and what is it mean 11 days out from the start of brexit negotiations? thing is article 50 has been triggered, so it is difficult for the u.k. to back out now. both labor and the majority of
9:20 pm
the conservatives were for the remain vote in the lead up to that huge referendum, but both have changed their tune, and i don't think there will be a turnaround on brexit. i agree with a commentator speaking a moment ago that the eu will hold britain to the timetable. rish and hong kong, you mentioned the dementia tax, is that where it all went wrong, or was it theresa may's performance in this election? >> i would say generally her performance because she has not been a strong performer. a lot of commentators said she was lackluster, woodenly reproduced stump speeches in her media interviews and was not a particular strong performer. neither was corbyn, but he has come up in recent weeks. i think theresa may has not been a strong leader, and her hard
9:21 pm
line on brexit has not been terribly popular either in britain or across the channel. indeed. she made it a single issue, didn't she? and the labour party had a multipronged attack on the health service, the dementia tax, education, tuition fees, which probably helped the youth vote to get out. young people, all the polls are showing young people are going more in the direction of labor, and jeremy corbyn has the advantage of actually going to the heart land of values and those values of andal a quality, justice, that has been worrying people in britain more and more and boosted labor, and yes, brexit may come a theresa may campaigning only on brexit was a bad call. her mantra of frexit
9:22 pm
means brexit, then saying you have to in brace brags it and you can only negotiate brexit if believe in brexit, would smack of nonsense and's nobody knows what brexit is. brexitdiately after the vote, there were people immediately campaigning against for the eu, brexit is a done deal. people in theof e.u. are saying, good riddance, because the u.k. has been a .horn in the eu's side they have argued about everything. they have not been favorable to regulations after the eurozone crash, so in the eu, they will not turn around. in the u.k., they have started moving down that path. done deal,s to be a
9:23 pm
and there are other issues coming to the fore. s&paad: just hearing the westminster leader angus robinson lost his seat in moray. does that put on another referendum on independence on the back burner? >> it very well may. lost a lot of ground in this election. p was doing sn strongly in recent years, and nicola sturgeon was pushing for a referendum on scottish independence. i would agree that that will possibly go back on the back burner. haidi: what happens to theresa may?
9:24 pm
it is clear that she will probably not hang onto her job. thatst got this tweet theresa may probably made the biggest political mistake in history. >> she has a lot of competition there. perhaps michael gove, boris johnson -- would not rule out anything, but boris johnson would surprise me. catapulted to the front as foreign minister, but under a theresa may government, so that might possibly rule him out. people have come back into politics. anything is possible. haidi: the bbc exit paul has been updated to 322 seats for the conservatives and does put
9:25 pm
them in a position to form a majority coalition, but not the 326 needed for an out right majority. not much for spite for theresa may in what is a nightmare scenario. if we look at this as a populist resurgence like vote and we take a look at potentially an earlier than expected vote from italy, you are seeing surging support for the five-star movement, what happens when you have anti-e.u. governments in both london and italy? a donethe eu, it will be deal because brexit has been triggered. it would be surprising if that got walked back now. the major concern for the eu is losing a big financial market and military power, which will give more power to france given that we now have a centrist neoliberal president.
9:26 pm
we have the power axis of the eu being consolidated within germany and france. there is a resurgence of nationalism, but at the same time, more people wanted to join the eu, so that federalism will probably win the day in the long run. haidi: we will leave it there for now, but you are staying with us through the hour as we get more updates through as counting continues in the u.k. areing a recap on what we seeing. the bbc estimating we would get a majority coalition when it comes to the conservatives, just not an out right majority we were looking for. and certainly this has taken markets by surprise, but we are seeing that fallout when it comes to financial markets being sterling.on that is trading at 1.2760. we are off session lows. asia, treading water, but
9:27 pm
not the contagion see we were when this first started to break. this is the only story in town. this is bloomberg. ♪
9:28 pm
9:29 pm
rishaad: 9:29 in hong kong. 2:29 a.m. in london. i am rishaad salamat coming to from bloomberg's asia headquarters. haidi: i am haidi lun in sydney. picturesatching live of counting underway in his and 10. -- islington north. you can watch it live on your terminal. situation when it comes to the market reaction. spiking lower, japanese equities solidifying gains.
9:30 pm
we had that tepid reaction when it comes to u.s. treasuries as well as u.s. equities futures. this move has been contained to what is happening in sterling. even that 2% move in the pound is not that great given this electoral surprise we have had with theresa may and the conservatives. clearly not going to get that out right majority. expecting the results when it comes to jeremy corbyn's constituencyee -- in the next few minutes. just getting a recap in terms of what we have. we are seeing at last a count. we are looking at that bellwether that has gone to labor and to the winning party in every region are since 1983. we are getting some numbers out of china.
9:31 pm
inflation numbers, producer and consumer prices for may. ,> the pace of disinflation falling pace of inflation on the factory gates, is intensifying. at 5.5 percent. the consensus was 5.6%. it counters the previous month of 6.4%. prices are still inflated, but we are seeing host cell prices come up a little bit. this would be the slowest pace of factory gate inflation so far this year, and the third month in a row of price disinflation. we have 4.5 years of deflation at the factory gate. that took a sudden change nine months ago and we have seen that peak, perhaps reflecting the commodities prices that have come off, so crisis at the
9:32 pm
factory gates are also coming down. seeing that feed into cpi inflation because of overcapacity issues in china. fairlylation still benign, however, it is the highest pace since january at 1.5%. cpi inflation in may was 1.2%. recapping again, ppi inflation in may 5 point 5%, a little lower than the consensus estimate of 5.6%, and cpi in line with estimates at 1.5%. inflation benign cpi takes her, and from the chart, factory gate inflation coming off on the back of lower commodity prices. reactiongetting normally from the aussie dollar with the data like this. being sental tremors
9:33 pm
out of the u.k. front and center. sophie: it looks like the aussie is running into more turbulence on the back of that chinese data. as you noted, we are seeing a backdrop of risk aversion given that drag and currency markets and the fall in the pound. the aussie was headed for its best week in march, so this is adding to its woes. remain the best g10 performer this week. the pound set for a weekly drop of 1.5%, sterling tumbling, losing as much as 2%'s morning, and now flirting dangerously with 1.27. asian markets generally not looking to wrap up by the u.k. vote. asian currencies are now in the front, but with the korean won
9:34 pm
leading the rise. theshanghai composite on back foot marginally, but the shenzhen is up .1%. sengan saying -- hang swinging between gains and losses. it closed up for the first time in two years on thursday. the yuan daily fix weaker for a second day. now to pull up the board and show what we have when it comes to movers in hong kong. man wah, questioning if it is really more than apple. dali foods was also upgraded to outperform. the share price adding nearly 4% on thursday. aac tech also with gains.
9:35 pm
that is a reaction to some short seller activity in hong kong. coming: some lines through. let's get some other developments out there. labour has made gains, including taking the welsh seat from the conservatives. polls are saying theresa may's party will lose its majorities. jeremy corbyn says labor has changed the face of british politics. sessiond touch new lows, weakening below 1.27 against the dollar as the tories
9:36 pm
trail to win some seeds from labor. also stronger against the sterling. the ftse 100 futures down. the u.k. could be without a fully functioning government days before brexit talks are due to start. that could upset negotiations with the eu with the clock taking on the two-year time scale. questions's also being asked about the prime minister's future. george osborne said she might not survive. by theresa backed may when she became prime minister last summer. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: thanks for that. picking up pace. still a lot of uncertainty. a fair degree of caution.
9:37 pm
labor leading with 71 constituencies so far. 326 needed for the outright majority. to london wither the breakdown of results so far. >> let's bring you up-to-date to the minute. 176 reported. 72 the conservatives, 85 to labor. seats, is saying 322 what the conservatives are on track to get. 326 for the outright majority, so they are in position to have a majority coalition and will have to band with other parties to make this happen. the other thing we are looking at is what are they doing and scotland.
9:38 pm
the tories seeing some gains in scotland, but labor is getting it seats on the conservatives are not. we have heard this one said, it is a well weather since 1983. this see has predicted the overall outcome every single time. that is a key one to look back to. this raises the question of what with brexit, lots of questions and uncertainty. this is #9243. it will show you sterling and how the gains, the drop we have seen today is put into perspective. not that big compared to the start of the year. this is the drop in sterling here. this was the brexit vote back in june last year.
9:39 pm
this is when theresa may said we will leave the single market. not a big gap as you might expect there. haidi: that's right. we are talking about how this reaction has been contained to isrling and that reaction comparatively subdued. the betting markets turning her brown, saying theresa may now favored as prime minister. that according to the bookmaker william help. elsewhere, you are seeing cold starting to spike lower, stability with the yen, japanese equities solidifying gains, so maybe not much of reaction on the market at all. we were talking earlier, if they need a coalition, who will it be with? >> northern ireland unionists would be the first port of call for the conservatives, otherwise they will have some problems. there are not many options, because the snp won't form a
9:40 pm
coalition with the conservatives. won'tls have said they form a coalition with either changebut might their tune if we end up with a hung parliament. haidi: how messy does this get? >> it could get very messy. if it is a hung parliament, it is the first time in recent history. parliament a hung before they were able to form a government, so it may not be an possible that you could have a hung parliament in the u.k. again, this muddies the water, they will want to extract something out of brings a negotiations because the north of ireland will be britain's only land border with the european union. indeed it will.
9:41 pm
the people in the south of ireland are getting conservati d about that too. last year, there was nervous no's about the reintroduction of a hard border. there is currently a soft order between northern ireland and the republic, and there were concerns about the reintroduction-- of a hard border. those concerns will increase. rishaad: naturally, but what does this mean for theresa may if she is forced out i her mp's? rise it be the remarkable and return of boris johnson come even though he said my chances of becoming prime minister are the same as finding elvis on the moon. about donald that
9:42 pm
trump winning the presidency as well, but given that boris johnson is theresa may's foreign discredited,may is boris johnson may also, so the tories may be looking for a new leader. rishaad: would you characterize this election as a vote against theresa may more than anything else, and they vote for let's say something other than brexit? d out inle brexite the u.k.? >> they are. there is a return to domestic issues, health, welfare, education, and so on. has had a strong renationalization platform and now seems to be playing better. anti-theresa may vote has helped him anonymously. i think the terrorist attacks have also helped labor because they have made hay out of the
9:43 pm
fact that theresa may did tapley's numbers when she was home secretary, so surprisingly, the terrorist attacks have been at the foot of the underdog. rishaad: what are the odds in your view, what are the chances of jeremy corbyn become britain's next prime minister? they would seem to me right now to be pretty slim. anything is possible. i would have put money on clinton winning in the u.s., so i'm not a good person to be laying odds on this sort of thing. it is not beyond the realm of possibility. labor and liberals could form a coalition, even though the liberals have said they do not want to. and jeremy corbyn, labor has to want to as well, which is a long shot, so i would say it is a very long road. it interesting.
9:44 pm
it is surprising not to be cynical, but it would seem like nn easy political capital wi when it came to the attacks in london, but that has not happened. we have the bbc projection looking at 322 seats to the and skyand itv forecasting 328 seats for the tories, so a little bit that her and would give them the outright majority. happens fromhat here and how we got here, to play devil's advocate, is there a sense we were coming off a low base when it comes to the popularity of jeremy corbyn? >> it was a low base and he was in some ways unpopular. one would have thought that -- haidi: there was always the
9:45 pm
sense that he was unelectable. >> yes. there has been a lot of commentary about that come and jeremy corbyn has lifted his game and i think theresa may not doing so well has helped jeremy corbyn to become more percent to ,ull in the face of the public but he was one of the least popular labor leaders in recent memory. it is quite surprising, his rise in the polls is very surprising. also has not been that great when it comes to women leaders. these brexit negotiations, what with the eu be thinking at the moment? been playing hardball. there is a sense that it does not matter whether you get theresa may remaining in the job or get a complete political overhaul in the u.k. has set its course for
9:46 pm
negotiation, but i don't believe it would deviate from that course. with theresa may's hard line, whoever is now prime minister and britain will have to soften that line because theresa may's line has not got her anywhere, and a bad deal might be better was thedeal, where it opposite with theresa may. i think there will be a more conciliatory approach in relation to brexit, but in the eu, it is business like usual and they will pursue negotiations per their agenda. rishaad: right. breaking news coming through. the former liberal democratic leader clegg has lost his constituency.
9:47 pm
labor has gained it from the democrats. we should get an idea of how big this wing was towards the labour party. that let theader democrats was defending his constituency and has -- what else is going on? seats.t 97 the conservatives on 79. this after 200 results. that is according to the press association. this is the situation in deed pending on terms. this is the foreign secretary boris johnson at the moment. let's have a listen. >> 716. party, 884. u.k. independence party, 1577. , 18,682.rty
9:48 pm
liberal democrats, 1835 or it number of ballot papers rejected declareand i hereby alexander johnson is elected to serve as a member of parliament. rishaad: i do beg your pardon. this coming as his name is touted as possibly a replacement theresa may after a disastrous night for her and the party as well. the other big headline is the former democratic leader nick
9:49 pm
his seat.lost sterling having a rough time of , one point.27 cable 27 83. projections are at the moment of something like 321 seats for the conservative party, and that would of course be below that toe, the line in the sand get a majority, which is 326. just seeing also the result come through and boris johnson retaining his seat. get details on is this 13% swing to the labour party in that particular constituency. just coming through on twitter that one. let's find out what is going on and get back to our guests. -- our guests.
9:50 pm
it really puts the liberal the only solid pro remain party and the selection apart from the scottish nationalist. what has happened to them and their campaign? where did it all go wrong? have made a bad call in making this all about grexit. brexitave been saying -- . as we have been saying, there are other issues that have come to the fore. sees to thest liberal democrats, the tories particular, and one commentator from the scottish press association saying there are now more tories than pandas in scotland now for the first time. result, sousual things seem to be going against predictions practically everywhere. the liberal democrats, possibly a bad call in making this about
9:51 pm
brexit and remain. rishaad: the president of the european council donald tusk came out saying article 50 could be revoked. there is a bit of debate whether it can or can't. indeed maybe i am jumping the gun because the two major parties have accepted the results of that referendum, so it is dependent on whether there is a change in terms. this certainly does not by time buy time for the next government. see anysonally don't backpedaling and the u.k. come except maybe on the terms of brexit. the liberal democrats and the we haved have to -- snp to win by a landslide for that
9:52 pm
to happen. the terms of the negotiations might change, but brexit itself, there were not be a revocation of article 50. rishaad: rishaad: how how badly damaged is theresa may? is she wounded? long time ina politics, so anything could happen. anything could happen to her fortunes in the next months or years. we have seen politicians marginalize make comebacks. may may come back herself, but that is hard to predict at this stage. popularity has taken a beard didn't and it is unlikely she will remain leader or if the conservative party do manage to win a majority, prime minister for a very long time. haidi: we had that itv polls supporting the bbc saying
9:53 pm
conservatives will get 322. you see those reversals and losses on the sterling. this is #9233, more stability. if we look at that run towards 1.28 for sterling, that would be a decline, but all in all, not too bad. classes,ok at asset the yen doing much of anything, gold bit down, so we are seeing this recession when it comes to the risk off appetite that has started off the asian trading session. could we get another general election though going forward. they might be fatigued with elections and referendums. 2015, last year, and now another general election, probably not a good decision to call this election this year, and theresa
9:54 pm
may is wobbly thinking it herself right now. i think people have election fatigue. i think britain is looking for stability. we get a functional government. if there is a hung parliament, we may go the way of belgium, or there may need to be another election. i would possibly suggest another election if there is a hung parliament and no one can form government, but that is not the problem right now. this may well be changing the political landscape in the united kingdom. i want to ask about the labour party. jeremy corbyn has been seen as a maverick and socialist and from and the left's fringes of the labour party as well. him doing so well will perhaps add to his values and his ideas as well.
9:55 pm
could it be that he would be vindicated to a large extent and it could drag the labour party further to the left? >> that is possible. it depends on what if the conservatives do manage to retain power and what they do and what they do in terms of socioeconomic issues in the u.k. and how things pan out in those areas, whether the hard left re-nationalizing industries that have been privatized for example, whether that will play well in britain. times in british history where that has played well. whether that will play well depends on what is happening in coming weeks. indeed. this is what we are looking at. there will be a lot of horsetrading going on. labor code also cobbled together something, couldn't they?
9:56 pm
>> labor would have to go with , as nicola sturgeon express, she would be open to negotiating with labor to forming a coalition, so that will probably be labor's first port of call, talking to the snp , but the liberals seem a less the bet for labor, but liberals don't seem to want to play ball with anybody right now , so where the parties will go to form a coalition is very much a movable feast right now. haidi: is this a populist move? might have -- is >> populist moves, again, we saw left wing populism in spain. they did not get anywhere. we saw extreme right-wing populism in france.
9:57 pm
is still a centrist liberal politics that one the day -- won the day and that is where a lot of governments have headed in europe. haidi: we will continue to monitor as the u.k. votes. ♪
9:58 pm
9:59 pm
♪ shots are looking at live , the constituency at the head of the labour party, jeremy corbyn. this is the political theater that is unwinding across the united kingdom this morning. minutes away from jeremy corbyn's home, literally around the corner. 2:59 a.m. here in the city of london. the main issue at stake here is the bbc exit polls along with a number of others are suggesting on target for a honda parliament. the risk is shifting, but it is
10:00 pm
just struck 3:00 a.m. and there is more to play for. i am right here in hong kong, i am rishaad salaam it. we have more going on market-wise, and the political earthquake in the united kingdom. haidi: i am haidi lun in sydney. asian markets looking at more political turmoil. this is "the u.k. decides." ♪ >> a dramatic night in the u.k. exit polls are just a hung parliament. theresa may falling short of a majority. in the uncertainty climbs the most since january. it raises questions about upcoming brexit negotiations. rishaad: jeremy corbyn says labor has changed --labour has
10:01 pm
changed the state of modern british politics. bronwyn: a former chancellor says she may not survive. welcome to this anchored show , sydney, and the city of london. ,he biggest political scoop nick clegg of the liberal democrats. potential for a hung parliament. many seats to come through. if this poll is anything accurate, it is catastrophic for the conservatives and theresa may. the pollsters are saying we cannot rule out the possibility the conservatives could still have an overall majority because
10:02 pm
it is quite early. this is the witching hour, the momentum drives up. what has gone wrong for a squandered lead of? this is the personification of the challenge for theresa may. 8284.ode on this chart is it shows dissipation in terms of flatlining. labour momentum accelerated. election wass called, labor relative to the conservatives rose by nearly 70%. those are the questions that will be asked to this morning as the day goes on. where did that super majority possibility go to? rishaad: you mentioned nick clegg, but he is out of parliament. the former business secretary of the liberal democrats, vince cable has won his constituency.
10:03 pm
we want to get to the price action. we have been looking at sterling and how it has been performing against the dollar. looking at a traditional cable. let's look at sterling against the yen. we have this move below this 200 moving day average against the yen. the pound edging lower, sterling as much as 2.1% at one stage, 139.6. shouting distance of that 200 138.92.ay average, a basket of currencies. just taking a quick reminder of what we are seeing in terms of the bid on cable, it has been going back-and-forth. iny have been taking it stride. largely, the market reaction has been contained when it comes to sterling. you can see this back-and-forth,
10:04 pm
the struggle we had seen as the polls come through. both of the bbc and others projecting for conservatives. if you look at other risk assets, the kiwi, the aussie, good gauges of sentiment for risks. the yen looking stable, japanese equities consolidating gains. safe havens like gold going lower. islingtontraight to north and here we go. angus, liberal democrat, 4946. [applause] nundee, independent, 41.
10:05 pm
james sophie clark, conservative, 6871. [applause] bernard corbyn, labour party, 40086. [applause] >> michael adam foster, 208. [applause] fraser, independence party, 413. [applause] george, 106.
10:06 pm
[applause] james william martin, known as ill martin, the socialist party, 21. [applause] andrew mendoza, communist league, 7. [applause] manus: those of the shots of jeremy corbyn, islington north constituency. 10,000 votes in islington north, taking him past 40,000. this is a retention of the seat for the labor --labour leader. many around the labour party were preparing different speeches for the leader this evening. morey corbyn has added than 10,000 votes to his majority there in islington
10:07 pm
north. let's get an update, give you a feel for the map of written and the potential for a hung parliament. peak electioning targets. this minute throughout hour. jeremy corbyn extending his majority. wind across the board, bristol northwest, the latest gains from the party. petersburg may have not held since 2005. a long time in tory control. clegg losing nick his speed. and the slowest recovery in 300 years, forcing austerity on the poor. it is back in for joe swinson in .cotland and the cable let's talk about scotland. snp is losing seats. jeremy corbyn, the leader
10:08 pm
of the labour party. >> it shows the importance of a fully staffed police surface to make sure we are kept jeremy cot all times. i do think the police for their work last weekend and today. [applause] >> it is an enormous honor to be elected to represent islington north for the ninth time in parliament. i am honored and humbled by the size of the vote that has been cast as the labor --labour candidate. i represent the people of islington north in the best way i can and continue to learn from them as well as represent them at the same time. i believe representation is as much about listening as about telling other people. from -- i think -- thank them for their support and all those who have worked so hard in this campaign.
10:09 pm
unfortunately, or maybe from their point of view, fortunately, i have been out on the road of the last six weeks. they have been holding the fort and working incredibly hard. i am grateful to them for all they have done. i'm also very grateful to all of my family and my wife, all the people that have worked so hard in our team at labour party head office, as well as the constituency office for achieving this incredible result tonight in islington, and the results coming in from all over the country. in terms of islington, this is the highest turnout of any election in islington since 1951. received largest vote for winning candidate ever in the history of this borough. i am grateful to the people of islington. [applause] >> this election was called in order for the prime minister to
10:10 pm
gain a large majority in order to assert her authority. campaign has gone on for the last six weeks. i have traveled the whole country, spoken at events and rallies all over the country. and you know what? politics has changed and politics is not going back into the box it was before. what once happened is, people have said they have had quite enough of austerity politics. quite enough of cuts in public expenditure, underfunding health care, schools, education services, not giving our young people the chance they deserve in our society. i am very, very proud of the campaigns my party has run, a manifesto for the many, not the few. i am very proud of the results coming in all over the country tonight. people voting for hope for the future and turning their back on
10:11 pm
austerity. [applause] if there is a message from tonight's result is this, the prime minister called the --ction [applause] [no audio] manus: islington north to maidenhead, the prime minister theresa may arriving there. this is her constituency. jeremy corbyn saying the politics of the united kingdom changed, not back in the box. austerity is been rejected. people want health, schools, education, hope over austerity is the leading message from jeremy corbyn there. his majority in islington north. you are looking at pictures of theresa may.
10:12 pm
-- best caseenario scenario for the market, you see the sterling dropped to 1.2765. , the magnetresa may legislator there in her constituency, maidenhead for the county. it is one of the safest constituencies the conservatives do have. she will have no problem holding onto that. some of the other action going on at the moment, saying the conservatives will perhaps get 325 seat in the next parliament and that would be one shy of the they need. suggesting sterling could be, by friday, which is today, or maybe next friday, heading to 125. what is interesting when it comes to these market
10:13 pm
scenarios, it is nothing like the volatility we saw on brexit or the day before brexit, nothing like we saw during the markets on u.s. election day. if you look at the scenarios when it comes to the pound, these key forecasts, you have at the very top a strong win for conservatives, followed by a small win. at the bottom, a labor win. in yellow, the possibility of a hung parliament. that would drag sterling down to 1.2349. we have not seen those levels of a plummet in sterling yet. we have seen gains off those session lows. this has really been contained within cable. we see a little bit when a comes to the pound. this is the yen. and gold, the nominating pound seeing a pretty big move. elsewhere, if you take a look at these classic risk sensitive assets, safe havens like of the
10:14 pm
yen and gold have come up quite a bit. has gone nowhere. the likes of the kiwi and aussie, these risk assets looking pretty resilient. let's take a look at what the broader markets are doing and how this is playing out are not playing out. -- seeing?ying >> asian markets looking fairly sanguine. the pound at 1.5% lower this morning. uncertainty very much seen as the achilles heel for sterling. futures in london indicating a softer open, down 0.4% for now. take a look at what is going on in equity markets in asia. korea south headed for a fresh record. leading up tension is it shifting to next week said meeting. higher afters inflation data came in mind with
10:15 pm
estimates. we did have this inflation intensifying. that is heaping on more pressure to the aussie dollar. let's check in on equity movers in asia. have the likes of softbank rising today to a 2000 high, set to buy alphabets robot unit. urging in hong kong the most on record, since muddy waters. technologies leading the game, up 8.3%. the hang seng is on the decline. a trend we see across most of asia with utilities leading the drop. all in all, asian markets are able to look beyond the u.k. vote so far. manus: thank you very much. sophie kamaruddin with the
10:16 pm
latest on the markets. that is the state of play in terms of the markets. sterling coming under more pressure. you are not seeing any dramatic moves at the start of trade. about 0.3%. stocks, to the euro this is going to be in focus. let's get back to sebastian for the latest in terms of those numbers. is one dramatic geography we should be focused on. that is the movement from the scottish national party. andarty, toward labour conservatives. >> snp on the surge, knocking out labour in scotland, leaving just one seat. slightly reversing this time around. butlabour party holding on,
10:17 pm
also losing a lot of seats to both labour and the tories in scotland. that went back to joe swinson and we have seen the tories gain in the east. seats so far0 reported. 155, we are about to get maidenhead. that is theresa may's seat. rishaad: getting to maidenhead and the magnet leisure center. theresa may, one of the safest seats. the declaration coming out there as well. she is expected to hold onto that seat. they are waiting for the returning officer to decide -- there we go. retaining one of the most ardent leads in the u.k..
10:18 pm
we also have gains being made by ther from the snp as we see snp weekend. this is the returning officer. let's get to windsor and maidenhead. there we go. i do hereby give notice that the number of votes cast for each candidate at the election is as follows -- u.k. independence party, 871. yemi hallimary, independent, 16. jonathan david, known as lord buckethead, 249.
10:19 pm
charles, known as tony 540., liberal democrats, 6 an, the official monster raving loony party, 119. [applause] nigh, andrew david, animal welfare party, 282. may, teresa merry, the --servative party candidate patrick known as pat mcdonald, labour party.
10:20 pm
11,261. reed, julian michael, the just political party, 62. bobby, 3. grant jonathan, independent, 152. victor edmund, christian people's alliance, 69. derekand norman, --, green party,
10:21 pm
once of official mark, zero. waiting for more candidates than the voter was entitled to, 19. right in or mark whereby the voter could be identified, three. wholly void, 86. rejected in part, zero. total rejected votes, 108. that theresaare may, the conservative party candidate, has been duly elected. i would like to ask the successful candidate to come up and make a few words. [applause]
10:22 pm
thank you, thank you very much. first of all come on behalf of myself and all of the candidates, i think the returning officer and dollars staff for the hard work they are put in today in running this election here in the maidenhead can agency -- constituency. police in think the ensuring the security of this event. have you to all those who -- it is a huge honor and privilege to be elected as the member of parliament for this constituency. and i pledge it will continue to work for all my constituents, as ofave done over the periods time i have been your member of parliament. a huge honor, a wonderful constituency. i look forward to continuing to work with you, to see further improvements to the lives of
10:23 pm
those who are living here in the maidenhead constituency. as we look more widely across the country, returns are still coming in. we have yet to see the full picture emerging. both are still being counted. at this time, more than anything else, this country needs a period of stability. if, as the indication has shown it is correct that the conservative party has won the most seats and most votes, it will be incumbent on us to make sure we have that period of stability, and that is exactly what we will do. i would like to thank those who have voted for the conservative party today. we setan this campaign, out to consider the issues that are key priorities to the british people. right, the brexit deal
10:24 pm
making sure we identify and address the big challenges facing our country, doing what is in the national interest. that is always what i have tried to do in my time as a member of parliament. my resolve to do that is the same this morning as it always has been. as we look ahead and wait to see what the final results will be, i know that the country needs a of stability. whatever the results are, the conservative party will ensure we fulfill our duty in ensuring that stability so that we can all, as one country, go forward together. thank you. [applause] eli aldridge, labour party, 483.
10:25 pm
haidi: we are hearing from the prime minister theresa may speaking there as she held onto her constituency at maidenhead. againstee his swing conservatives in may's own constituency. but in west of london they are hanging on. interesting points from that acceptance speech, really driving home, she says the need for the u.k. to have a period of stability. and if the poll's indications are right, the conservatives will get the most boats and seats. it is incumbent on her and her ofty to ensure that period stability continue and the need to get the best brexit. acting in the best interest of her voters. a bit of a positive tone coming through from theresa may,
10:26 pm
despite, not the ideal outcome in the votes being counted for. rishaad: i might be reading too much into this, but she said the conservative party would give britain that security, not necessarily her leadership. caps on am reading too much into that. a strange results coming through, historically speaking. the conservatives lost to labour in canterbury at the same times -- canterbury is a traditional kent conservative heartland. we could consider the political ramifications. the let's get to a chief investment officer for the asia-pacific. i will not get bogged down into the political discourse, let's talk about market implications. we have been talking about gold, the yen, sterling, cable.
10:27 pm
what about equities in the u.k.? our exporters doing better? 4100 will see the outperforming the 250. have ar sterling does more global feel. my sense is, we have had been enignreactions -- b reaction so far. the market is less willing to go into these particular events, leveraged one way or the another. brexit and the trump election have put us off that. it has put us more comfortable. rishaad: we have gotten used to shocks. >> exactly. think about the hang seng futures on brexit and how much it reacted to that event. rishaad: every time we have reaction it gets taken back.
10:28 pm
at a quicker and quicker pace. >> the leverage community were well-positioned and got cleaned up. shy, we are twice holding off. that is not to say there will not be important ramifications. the whole market or labor minority does put a question mark over the company slated for nationalism. beckett have a huge impact on domestic equities. the market is probably right to be holding its breath for the time being. we do not know how things are going to turn out. the type of forecast we were sitting across the market, the base case for various shops was around the 40 to 60 for the conservatives. the potential for a hung not the 30, 40,
10:29 pm
50, 60 seats we thought they would get at the start. what does it do to the medium-term expectations on brexit? that was the linchpin on what she went in on come of oh-fer may, i give you a strong brexit. does this week and perceptibly the hand of the u.k. in terms of brexit negotiations? they are now forecasting 267 for labour. >> it does open up the option of a discussion. maybe there is a continuing relationship with the european court of justice, a softer shape of the brexit is more likely, given there is a completely lack of mandates for something harder. a hard is now yesterday's story.
10:30 pm
brexit is now yesterday's story. it is going to be interesting in terms of where she might have to turn to. want to bring in sterling. if i take this forward, it has been a rather sanguine level for sterling, we are hitting the fibonacci area. we brokered scenarios. win hung parliament, labour seems to be off the cards for the moment. in the medium-term if we look at a hung parliament and dates brexit,- and a softer is that an upside in the medium-term? lack of clarity is probably pound is supported. at these levels, the pound is
10:31 pm
fundamentally cheap, relative to the last 10, 15 years. we reflected that in positioning we had post-brexit. softlarity toward brexit, or hard, will be reasonably positive. we are in uncertain territory. we do have a discussion starting in around two weeks. the timeline is extremely short. it will put pressure in the near term on sterling. , youwe get more clarity can only think it will be supportive. i suppose-- haidi: the worst-case scenario is an another layer of uncertainty. another note on our top line blog, the language of what may said, more votes, more seats, that is language you use when you do not have a majority. of talking about this period
10:32 pm
stability, saying we cannot have another general election in the near term. mike that be the worse case scenario if we do not get a working government formed? >> as i understand it, if the government cannot form, the opposition has 14 days to make their efforts. if that does not work, there is the option of a second election. at that is a catastrophic out turn for markets. i would expect sterling to react violently to that proposal. it is early days yet. we do not know. the market is appropriately stasisning itself in before we get a sense of what is happening. rishaad: i want to bring up this chart, giving us some idea of what the most likely forms of the new government will take. let's take a look to see what is going on. conservative minority government, the favored outcome at the moment.
10:33 pm
-- not on labour their own, but the odds do increase if we have labour and snp coalition. but it is not the winning line. they need basically everybody else. >> which increases the odds and the likelihood it will not happen. inevitably, they have that complication. herding cats. they could represent something of a working government. the best tasting talked about right now. that is being spoken about as a possible and probable likelihood. manus: that is interesting, if you look at the u.k., these coalition possibilities are
10:34 pm
coming. of aave rising probability conservative coalition coming through. i just wonder, anyone who walks in through number 10 has got a tough, tough economy to handle, don't they? fieryy are walking into a crucible, the article 50 brexit negotiations. that will be front and center. the economy is looking more resilient and more robust than we give it -- it is given for granted. and one the focus market will be focused on is the negotiations. we did on the lot of
10:35 pm
number crunching from the equity market. it is different when you listen speech about what the country wants, less austerity, etc.. if we get a minority government what does it mean for the bank of england and policy? they have to be so much fuller and square are behind the economy, one would presume. ,he possibility of a rate hike late 2018, early 2019, what does it do to the bank of england with a hung parliament scenario or small majority? >> monetary policy is also front and center. the weaker sterling is probably quite likely impacting import prices. overall, the demand story and the shift to safety will keep it on hold. that will remain the case for quite some time. in the u.k. we have a slightly perplexing combination of
10:36 pm
reasonably strong growth and quite benign inflationary pressures. i think that is the key boe hasm and key risk to manage. i think it will remain on hold for some time and that will have to be reflected in the level of political risk and uncertainty that exists. we will leave it there, but you stay with us the rest of the hour. at let's talk about the reactions in what has an extraordinary start to counting in the u.k. do not just want brexit, they want change. someone at stand up and speaks for them. i am afraid that theresa may just represented the establishment. she came across as wholly insincere, stolid, robotic.
10:37 pm
corban, even though i am not a political supporter, he come -- he came across as being human. this was absolutely a good election for her to call. but the absolute rules should have been, do not take risks. make it a very boring campaign. i thought it would have been a boring campaign with interesting results. it turned out to be not a boring campaign at all and conservatives should have been in blazed across everything we were doing. >> volatility levels were different. at that has applications globally. when we had the brexit vote back in june, the gut reaction was that this would have global ramifications. be the case.ot to even though we see higher sterling volatility, there is less prospect of that pouring
10:38 pm
into broader markets. still a little local difficulty rather than an event of global proportions. even more than most of us realize, u.k. politics and the political economy are incredibly regionally divided country with concentrations of wealth and sophistication and immigration in certain places and complete backwardness in other places. to get agreements and huge decline in productivity growth. the reaction over the past number of hours for this election, let's bring in our political correspondent, the joined me on the set in london. me update our viewers. we have more than half the , they havey reported, 160 24 labour, 26 to
10:39 pm
them snp. this -- the tories. what went wrong? what is the biggest thing that went wrong? tax, terror, or the wrong argument -- brexit, brexit, brexit. people think about other things in their lives, don't they? mistakesalked about theresa may made. how they cost her the majority she might have got. down toput all of this the tax? what ministers are now talking about is ministers coming out and talking. they say the thing about young people is that they don't vote. i have to say that last year
10:40 pm
with brexit, a whole bunch of people came out and never voted before but voted for brexit. they say you have nonvoters that say they do not vote. last year, nonvoters voted for brexit. this year, young voters are normally do not vote seem to have voted. black -- they seem to have a backlash. perhaps theresa may was a weak candidate. that became clearer during the campaign. -- way jeremy corbyn is a the things he finds difficult, he does not have to do that in a political campaign. he just has to make speeches. he is good at that. >> listening to theresa may, her speech in maidenhead, she talked period of- a
10:41 pm
stability that is needed. one thing that comes to mind is questions about her leadership, whether she can stay. boris johnson can be the protagonist from the right. it could get messy in terms of politics of leadership, couldn't they? to imaginery hard theresa may being a conservative prime minister a year from now. we should get out of the predictions business. all of her authority within her party rested on the idea that she was a winner, -- theresa. >> she looks like so many that had taken a body blow, and indeed she had. was it she going to cry?
10:42 pm
who do you replace her with with?ogo -- replace her and do you start brexit talks? what was the mood amongst mp's going into the election? a sense of, here we go again, we can do this. and then the mood became more despondent? we have a nicola sturgeon and snp leaders saying it is a disaster for theresa may. some saying she is toast. will they dump her? >> on the mood going into the election, if you were a tory mp, the mood was euphoric. i was sitting in the gallery,
10:43 pm
looking down in the chamber as they were debating and i was looking at graham brady, the chairman of the 1922 committees next to another mp. a were grinning. i texted them and said, could you look a little less smog about this election -- smug about this election? they texted back, no. despondent,were thought they would lose their jobs. some had only just got to parliament. they thought they would be swept away. to be honest, although they started to get more confident at the let -- as the election went this, it ist like more the tories were happy, and then the exit polls command and plummets. 10 minutes after the exit polls
10:44 pm
come out, labor people were saying, what is going on? we do not believe this. it is not just the tories that have been taken by surprise. candidates were toast. sturgeonwe have nicola talking and glasgow. saying theresa may is in a difficult position. it will be a big loss to parliamentary politics. won this election in the city of glasgow. i congratulate all mp's that have been elected. >> could you have done better? >> there are a number of different factors. surgewas clearly a lead
10:45 pm
not just in scotland, but across the u.k. issues of theare country feeling uncertainty in the wake of brexit. independence has been a factor. is aiggest issue was disaster for theresa may. she called this election unnecessarily, arrogantly thought her position was a safe and that she would win by a landslide. tonight she had an absolutely disastrous performance. the snp results, will not make rash decisions. i will think through the implications of these results. let's not lose sight of the fact that disappointing -- i will not try to take away from that. inis a victory for them snp scotland. before 2015, the maximum seats
10:46 pm
held in manchester would have been 11. i congratulate everyone tonight. i have not heard confirmation of the situation in gordon. manus: that was the leader of the scottish nationalist party, had -- said theresa may had a tough night. she said it was an unnecessary election that was called. i disaster for theresa may, and an unnecessary campaign, and arrogant to that theresa may culd presume to cruz to -- to ruise to a landslide. nicola sturgeon, no sleep, facing the cameras. there was a guest that said there are more tory mp's in
10:47 pm
scotland than pandas. and there are not a lot of pandas. >> won a silver lining, a scottish independence referendum. that seems to be off. it looked like it was becoming more likely. the scots are one referendum period ofhe u.k., a peace would be nice. manus: thank you, get those keyboards. let's get to sebastian with the latest on the heat map of election 2017. >> 2/3 of constituencies reporting. 193 is how we stand, conservatives, 197 to labour.
10:48 pm
the tories will not get a majority -- they have the number at 320. it is hovering around a similar region, below that key 326 figure. that is what any party needs to get a majority. i want to take a look at the map. scotland is looking fairly different from where it was 24 hours ago. taking the conservatives seat from the snp. it is a win for the lib dems in a few places. joe swinton winning their seats. it is a small come back there. let's have a look at the pound. scotland, another tory win.
10:49 pm
128ling, testing that level. it is at its april low, the most since october. hesitancy in the markets as people are looking for certain day. any idea where we are going from here? haidi: thank you for keeping us up to date. interesting point on our online blog, the pickup of votes when it comes to conservatives in scotland and what it means for pushing off the momentum for a second scottish independence referendum. let's pick up on that conversation with the cfo from asia-pacific. election, a triple whammy of risk this week. the markets were not so preoccupied. to me it seemed like the event to produce the least binary
10:50 pm
outcome. does this tell you markets have become reluctant to pay , as much as policy we talk about politics being a driver? >> all three events were rapidly discounted by politics. of risk assets around asia make that clear. point we doat the not have a firm sense what will happen. markets are holding their breath before they react. even sterling has been benign in the way it has responded. has beents response limited and diminished. rishaad: let's have a look at brexit. platform tosa may's
10:51 pm
get a mandate, strengthen her position. ben had a seat at twickenham. market is the single back on. that is an inevitable conversation. the hard brexit conversation is probably not going to happen. the softer form is probably quite likely. whether there is a chance for another look at the brexit story, that is what vince cable is referring to and suggesting. european economic area is an option. hard nowhere close to the brexit.
10:52 pm
rishaad: a former british diplomat, fraser cameron. thank you so much for joining us. i will put the same question i put to john woods, vince cable suggesting it is back on the table following this likely result. >> i think so. now a negotiation based on the real interests of the u.k. realize the huge economic and of walking away from the single market and customs union. this will be back on the table. we are conjecturing about the possibility of a hung parliament, a much weekend political mandate people would say. how do you think that is going to be taken in germany and by
10:53 pm
mr. juncker? is it an opportunity for europe to play harder ball with a weakened prime minister? >> i think they have been remarkably united so far. now there is a lot of uncertainty in the u.k. about what form the new government will take. this uncertainty will perhaps delay things. i do not think it will ultimately change the result unless the u.k. says, we do want to stay in that market. it then that is a game changer. this is a populist --ising, does this suggest the italian elections, more support than expected for that
10:54 pm
movement. what does it mean for europe? if you have these anti-e.u. governments in london and rome? >> i would not call it yet anti-e.u. government. you cannot draw one lesson here. trendsre global populist . hasno populist government taken over on the continent. german elections, you will see a renewal of the german engine, which is so essential for european integration. that will get moving again. overall, we can say europe is in a better position than it was one year ago. we just got pictures of theresa may, just driving on the
10:55 pm
that is the magnet leisure center in maidenhead. is she, politically speaking, mortally wounded? >> she is wounded. whether she is mortally wounded depends on the makeup of the conservative party. there is no obvious candidate to take over for her area i think they will stagger on in a much weaker position. she will have to change her attitude. more than anything, it was the arrogant attitude, simply give me another 108 and i will do a brexit. you talk about potential changes in cabinet. we're talking about the hard brexit said to be off the table. there will be challenges and pushes and shoves. does she need to change or accident negotiating team quickly? no, i think david davis.
10:56 pm
. will stay.vis manus: thank you for joining us from of the e.u. that is the state of play in this first half from london, australia, and hong kong. great to see you. i am never up this early. it is never usually this exciting. we will continue our election day coverage right here from london and hong kong. across the globe. pictures of theresa may and her cars traveling back to london after she won her seats. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days families want to be connected 24/7.
10:57 pm
10:58 pm
that's why at comcast, we're always working to make our services more reliable. with technology that can update itself. and advanced fiber network infrastructure. new, more reliable equipment for your home. and a new culture built around customer service. it all adds up to our most reliable network ever. one that keeps you connected to what matters most. manus: you are looking at live
10:59 pm
pictures of the cavalcade of theresa may and her entourage. won the seat at maidenhead. she talked about the need of stability in the u.k. she thanked the police in her acceptance speech for the job they had done. the issue is, a hung parliament. the north of ireland, the unionists, are picking up seats.
11:00 pm
acrosss a swing from snp the political spectrum. ofs is a special edition daybreak election 2017. it has just gone a 4:00 a.m. in the city of london. i am manus cranny. >> i am david ingles. >> and i am angie lau in hong kong. manus: a night of high drama in the u.k., exit polls are just a hung parliament. theresa may falling short of a majority. we saw sterling plunge. it raises the dice about the upcoming brexit negotiations.
11:01 pm
jeremy corbyn and labor performance. he says whatever the result, they change the face of british politics. questions aregie: to be asked about the prime minister's future. they are saying she may not survive. manus: the markets are moving, nothing like it was across this brexit referendum last year. what i can tell you, the markets had a conversation, hard brexit potentially off the table. we have sterling in the gold market moving. this is the british government bond market. in the event of a dissipated majority from what we saw, you would see people by this -- buy gilt. marketshorting the gilt
11:02 pm
in referendum 2017. you can see the decline. we are concerned about the outcome. potential seats for the tories. the press association, 325. there is still a raft of seats to come through. 0.2%.s of only lost good to see you, good morning. david: the next 60 minutes are crucial. message when you look at the currency market, it is not as liquid as we saw year back. what we areat following. i want to talk about the dollar-yen. it is not typically what we are looking at now. the risk showing you aversion, caution, not spreading
11:03 pm
into the broader market. when you look a dollar-yen you have to consider the big dip we saw yesterday. wes is following the drop are seeing right now in sterling. we have thehasize session lows at the midpoint. of the asian trading session, we have been trading really tight, 127.50. markets are very much on hold. that it is not as liquid as we saw year back. angie: take a look at what the intraday is for gold. following on what you are saying, what are the safe bets? thisu go into this chart, is what we saw when the bbc did 314 seats, would get that is below the magic number of 326.
11:04 pm
right now it is settling somewhere between there. it did surge higher after that. ring back that initial reaction, the press association saying the conservatives could get up to 325. it takes one more to get a coalition government. in london withan a breakdown of the results. 494 reported, 650 in total to report. 217 for the conservatives. as we get more results in we fill up the map to see who will rule the country. seat., a key target jeremy corbyn went straight down to croydon. it is a mixed picture from all of the royal areas -- rural a
11:05 pm
reas. 326, theese are below magic number any party needs to have a majority. story still the playing out. the tories gaining sterling from the snp. is this the part of the country that could save the tories? how will that play out for the markets? the amount of blue there. northern ireland, the party there have their own interests when it comes to brexit talks. we need to see what theresa may has done to protect your future before making calls there. that could be a potential coalition partner for the tories. that is where we still have more constituencies. david: great reporting.
11:06 pm
we are seeing a lot of these projections in favor of the tories getting scale backs. across the asia-pacific, two-year highs. volumes are not right there. except for japan, the whole softbank deal is playing up. we not getting a lot of risk aversion at the moment. we have shane oliver saying no one actually cares about the u.s. elections when it comes to a global investors standpoint. u.s. future switching into the green, indicating again for the open on wall street. we do have softbank contributing the most to the nikkei 225, gaining 70 points. when it comes to the kospi, it is a record. chinese shares i do record, set for a fourth day of gains and best weekly gain since november.
11:07 pm
and miners, we have copper futures in shanghai up 1.5%. oilip in crude prices, prices set for a third weekly drop, weighing on regional producers in asia. despite dollar strength, we are watching asian currencies having a cheerful friday, unlike the pound or korean won. perhaps as the attention is shifting to next week said meeting, we do have the pound down 1.7%. there is a sharp selloff earlier this move, citigroup anticipating a 5% tumble in anticipation of a hung parliament. we have safe havens of falling. a continued pickup close to the top of gold exchange, similar to
11:08 pm
what we saw in 2011 when the euro crisis sparked. gold at a high. angie: joining us is victor chu, chairman of the hong kong euro business council, and chairman and ceo at first investment. we will be talking about not just the impact of the u.k. brexit, as it relates to and its relationship to the global economy. when you have potentially a hung thatament, a coalition, means there is less mandate, less of a solid move forward. what will it mean for those relationships with china and beyond? >> probably we're back to square one. it is a lack of complete clarity. will be hour or two
11:09 pm
important. it what it means is, the british inernment's legitimacy brexit negotiations will be weakened. the market will still be volatile in the short-term. probably there will be another election in the autumn. i think there will be more uncertainty in the market. investors here will still want to see opportunities, but they will be able to wait and see. thank you for joining us. the prospect of a harder brexit seems to be stepping back i degrees. that is what credit suisse told us if it is a hung parliament. do you think that would make the u.k. more attractive over the next couple years if it is not such a hard brexit, in terms of china wanting to acquire more, position more, and use the u.k. as a jumping off point? as far as chinese and asian
11:10 pm
investors are concerned, the potential of a hard brexit is already digested in our psychology. betterefully there will be a political environment to create a more harmonious field. i hope politicians of all sizes at the end of the day will find a workable solution that will work for all parties concerned. lose-lose it will be for everyone. great to see you. help us understand what is important. businesses tends to be resilient. capital flows less so. put yourself in the shoes of ceos waking up across europe. what is the first thing they are thinking? >> for those who have a
11:11 pm
,ear-term sterling commitment probably looking at the currency movement. tois probably a good time cover your commitment. for those looking for investment, we want to see what opportunities are there going forward. positivehey are more than people probably think. if there are still murky uncertainties, people will wait and see. looking, but when will they make the investment decision? too early to tell. manus: i am looking at the trading relationships between the united kingdom and china. china is the number three trading partner.
11:12 pm
take set into the exports area. we see a drop down to number seven. whoever comes into number 10 will want to solidify that relationship with china and asia because it is critically important either way, over the next two years, isn't it? >> absolutely. it will be crucial. at the same time, china and the e.u. are getting closer. we are finding more and more common ground. in the paris agreement, for example. a lot of progress has been made between the e.u. and china as well. here watching this, it is 4:12 a.m. in the morning. we're looking at the prospects of a hung parliament in the
11:13 pm
united kingdom. next time you come to the u.k. and talk to business leaders, the prospect of the brexit board having to be reshuffled is something we're discussing here this morning. in terms of our relationship with of the eurozone, the eea membership, this is where it gets important for china. that have a softer brexit, drives the possibility of bigger chinese investment in the u.k. because you can still be a gateway in europe. >> absolutely. obviously, i chinese investor would like to see britain have a workable, harmonious relationship with europe. we have been used to using london for european investments. we hope to continue to do that. angie: i want to break some lines crossing the terminal right now.
11:14 pm
broadcasters forecasting a hung parliament. theresa may as we heard in comments, she stressed the most seats, hinting she knows what the outcome might possibly be. for i want to ask you about sterling. that stability in the pound is not what we are stability. seeing. let's dive into the bloomberg now. market breach the 127 slightly, it is hovering above their right now. it could drop to the next level. if it drops below 127, it would be 125. does this make london and the u.k. more attractive because the purchasing power and being able to snap up resources there? short-term, definitely. before the long-term investor,
11:15 pm
we are neutral. we have to look at other geopolitical consequences yet to unfold. certainly. for people with a near-term sterling commitment as i mentioned, it will be a christmas present come early. angie: what would you get? what would you buy? >> sterling. angie: what other investment could we see? example, some people already have commitments in the cashbuying infrastructure, flow businesses, technology companies or service companies that may have a good market in asia and china. they already have commitments, but yet to be fulfilled. the creation of sterling in the short-term would be good. angie: it would be a nice discount. on that point you just made -- angie brought up a good question there.
11:16 pm
i am wondering -- you can take a look at the bloomberg to see how these are widening. at 127, how much of those commitments in your view from the people you talked to are put on hold? this goes back to last year. what was the incremental pickup and interest from investors in asia looking at this, and the pound value? >> i think a lot of people after brexit were adopting a wait and see. they are interested in u.k. opportunities but want to see how brexit unfolds. the selection still does not provide clarity. square one.o because of short-term peopleation of sterling, may celebrate some investment decision to take advantage of the short-term potential currency gain or savings.
11:17 pm
long-term, people are interested in u.k. people in this part of the world like the u.k. we hope despite uncertainties with a hung parliament, we can still find a way of working with europe to find a workable solution. that is what we are here, really hoping for. david: i love the word hope, victor. we do not know if theresa may will hold on to hurt -- hold on to her tenure. is that the biggest risk for sterling, gilt, investment? prevarication in terms of who is running the show here and with europe? we start with teresa but end with someone else, is that the biggest risk for markets? absolutely. obviously, business does not like volatility.
11:18 pm
unfortunately, a hung parliament does not give us better comfort than yesterday. comforting is that the potential of a scottish, another argument on scotland, probably will fade away. that point gives more certainties from this point of view. victor, i want to ask you about free trade agreements between britain and china. britain has expressed the desire to open up stronger trade relationships after it exits the e.u. does this affect that outcome? the difficulty is, china and britain cannot even start formal negotiation on an agreement until we have clarity on britain. before britain leaves the e.u.,
11:19 pm
the relationship is an e.u. -china one, rather than bilateral. it cannot do individual deals australia, and china until we have more clarity. angie: the question is whether any deal with china will be influenced by whatever happens after brexit? i think china and the u.k. are enjoying a golden era. we have seen allegations from china and hong kong going into london. so people are interested. i think that a china-u.k. deal would be welcomed by both sides. it is the timing, methodology, and structure remains to be solved. in the studioy
11:20 pm
with angie. we will take a quick pause. hop onto your bloomberg and you have it there. conservatives have one more seat. sebastian, is that a heat map for 2017? seats.out of 650 conservatives inching, 245 labour the latest moves, conservative gain in mansfield. seats continuing to change hands. if we pull up the maps, here is the picture so far. the top line is, they are forecasting a hung parliament. it is a mixture. conservative constituencies edgar -- bigger.
11:21 pm
mix at the moment, that is why we are seeing a hung parliament. thearties set to hit 326, golden number to get to a majority level. an electioncalled to strengthen our hand for brexit, but now it has done the opposite. things tougher to score a deal with brussels. there is a second recount in hastings. just how close is that? that could be a big casualty if labour has taken that seat. let's see how the markets are adopting this. sterling, average price throughout the brexit process, it is just above this. the current price of sterling, 1
11:22 pm
.2764. the average price throughout the brexit process is 1.2705. david: thank you for that. we have been fairly steady. we are getting live pictures and news, the tories win. alex speaking on the snp. let's listen in very quickly. this is part and parcel of the process we have been going through all morning. long story short, when you see 540 of going on, roughly the constituencies are in out of 650. 248 for the tories, labour at 227. i want to bring back our guest, victor chu in hong kong, chairman of hong kong europe. he is also the chairman and ceo
11:23 pm
of first eastern investment. i am asking you a question from the outside. we can talk about the nuts and bolts come a policy differences between the two parties. from a business perspective, do the policies have that much difference? when you're making your decisions and plans? victor: we hope at the end of the day, whichever party is in power will want to strike the best deal possible for britain, which is workable with the e.u. we have to remember that what britain wants may not necessarily be what the e.u. once. on paper, a labour-led coalition, you have a better
11:24 pm
chance of a single market remaining. there are other issues about tax increases and new dimensions on spending. a tory-ledospect of coalition, the prospect of a harder brexit. mrs. may, as the vote currently shows, would not get the upper hand she wanted to achieve when she called the second election. probably there will be protracted and tough negotiations. i think whoever is in power at the end of the day will try to want the best possible deal that is practically workable and acceptable to the e.u. still at the end of the day, common sense will prevail on both sides. but we will have to go through rough negotiations and
11:25 pm
uncertainty. for some it is an opportunity. but some may be discouraged from acting quickly. david: victor, i love how hopeful you are. you pick up on a good point earlier, london has remained the gateway from asia looking into europe. you think we have to rethink that now? to see any alternative to london when you look at the continent? i think business leaders in this part of the world are all fairly smart and practical. most of us would take the view that whilst we enjoy being in london, london will still remain a very attractive destination for investment in britain and internationally. english law is something we are familiar with. but we will all consider additional european platforms or
11:26 pm
non-u.k. european investments. that is already did -- been considered over the last few months. david: how do you think xi jinping will look at this hung parliament? he has trump in the white house theresa may.ned how does he look at the world through this political prism? >> i am not so sure yet. it will at this time, be a better time to discuss. right now, he is busy with of ,he shanghai organization talking publicly about the opportunity. will have to see what
11:27 pm
xi jinping has to say. victor chu, thank you for joining angie, david, and myself. -- a shot interview of theresa may coming into london. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:28 pm
11:29 pm
>> as we look more widely across , we have yet to see the full picture emerging, votes are still being counted. more than anything else, this country needs a period of stability. >> i am very, very proud of the campaign my country has run. a manifesto for the many, not the few. i am proud of the results coming in all over the country tonight, people voting for hope for the future and turning their backs on austerity. biggestnk one of the
11:30 pm
issues is the wage forces. it is a disaster for theresa may. she called this election unnecessarily. she arrogantly thought she would push the opposition aside and cruise into a landslide. tonight she had an absolutely disastrous performance. >> u.k. voters do not just one brexit, they want change. they want someone that stand up and speak for them. i am a frayed theresa may just represented the establishment. -- shee across aswholly came across as wholly insincere. jeremy corbyn him across as being human. manus: welcome back, you are watching "the u.k. decides." david: i am david ingles in singapore. angie: i am angie lau in hong kong.
11:31 pm
100 more results left to go. 650. 326 is the magic number. one of the interesting losses, alex salmand. the nationalist movement in scotland is over. what are you looking at? manus: markets are smaller in the movement. will that continue? one line coming through is a question whether theresa may will stay. this is volatility. london traders are already at their desks. relative to the stock, the markets are going to question whether this is potentially a less hard brexit. what does that mean for sterling and its relationship with of the
11:32 pm
market? there have been pretty big speaking,litically across the spectrum. i will keep an eye on volatility. equities not.k. exactly tanking. david: it is worth noting when you look at a few days preceding today, risk assets do not exactly selloff. tode-rifeel the need portfolios. they built up their hedges. sk as far as sterling is look at this chart. context,is into relative to what we saw at this time last year, still withintwo
11:33 pm
standard deviations. within two standard deviations. it will be tracking all the moves in sterling. in the meantime, i want to get to sebastian in london. doing a great job with the results so far. where are we at the moment? declared, 90 seats from the home stretch. from tories and plymouth -- in plymouth. this one was a key target for the party. this is playing out in the market. let's bring up a chart of sterling. on the up ever so slightly.
11:34 pm
it has been moving all over the place. boris johnson, gives some hints of a possible leadership challenge before a new government can be formed. we do not know how long that could be. hashed out,to be given brexit talks are on the table. seesaw in the currency, above 127. investors are looking for some level of certainty, that is not what we saw today. angie: taking a look at what the futures are telling us, futures really dropping on the heels of that possible hung up parliament. that is the reaction we are seeing on this index.
11:35 pm
it is paring off that intraday low. the latest check on market reactions in asia with sophie kamaruddin. >> when traders wake up in london, it will be an interesting time. when it comes to the reaction in asia, it has been fairly muted. one of said that global investors do not care about the u.k. election. it looks like wall street is set to strike it off the future signaling a higher open in the united states. today we have the pound airing the brunt of the shifting leadership in the u.k., falling the most since october. this morning it earlier dropped 2%. citigroup anticipating a stumble of 5% for sterling.
11:36 pm
the nikkei 225 a leading gainers, facing a jump in softbank shares, rising to a 17 year high. up, kospi sending the benchmark to fresh record. chinese shares on a solid footing, the best week since november. inflation data out of china in line with estimates, -- putting more pressure on the aussie dollar, the second worst performer after the pound. also weakness in the euro, as well. when it comes to stocks in australia, the asx 200 tracking moves in base metals. copper shares in shanghai up 1.6%. regionalragging on energy producers in asia.
11:37 pm
let's take a last look at the hang seng. this index is bucking the regional trend as utilities are dragging on the benchmark. it is keeping afloat, above the 26,000 level. in hong gaining 2.6% kong. manus: thank you very much, sophie kamaruddin. alan crawford, our european government editor, thank you for coming down. this election,d coalition chaos, that is potentially what you are going to get. where should we start? it is just political chaos from parliament. this is the worst case scenario for theresa may and the tories. casesolutely, the worst scenario for the country and the markets.
11:38 pm
theresa may made an appeal for stability, but it looks like the last thing she is going to get. remember that two weeks ago we were told the tory strategists were laughing at the idea of a hung parliament. now that looks like exactly what we are going to get. manus: that is the hard right someone say. a cio fromrlier with asia and he said a hard brexit is potentially off the table. we could assume a dissipated perhaps not the prime minister in six months time. >> her future is very much in doubt. brexit, there are scenarios of that it could be that she tries to limp on in her own coalition with the unionists.
11:39 pm
she could bety is, beholden to the hard brexiteers in her own party. the traditional catholic unionist, hard pro-hard border, potentially, the people theresa may could be looking at in terms of having to do an alliance. you are right. this could indeed move the argument to the right and back at the polls by the end of the year. is that a risk arising this morning? >> it has to be. the single biggest factor is uncertainty. given the fact we do not yet know whether she was -- how she could form a government at all, it is still feasible if unlikely jeremy corbyn could try to form a coalition.
11:40 pm
all of that points toward a distinct possibility would could be looking at fresh elections. two great big boats with massive uncertainty in two years and potentially a third. talking about your homeland, scotland. the leader of the scottish national party, much dissipated as well. a big swing to tories and labour away from the scottish national party. of aere was a wee bit silver lining, does this not quash and independence vote in the near-term? in the near-term, and independence referendum. >> ironically, not necessarily. what we have seen, if you will hate a return to plurality and democracy in scotland, remember has diminished.
11:41 pm
they are still by far the biggest party. if there were to be some kind of unofficial alliance with the labor, that could come back and independence may come back into play. i think it is unlikely, but we cannot rule it out. about i want to ask you northern ireland, you have the noter saying she may or may go with may. she said it was beyond the political pale when it comes to corbyn. if there is a movement toward dup coalition with theresa may, what concession would she have to give angela foster, who is soft -- or arlene foster, rather? >> a good question, hard to answer at this stage. because it is so close at the moment with no overall majority,
11:42 pm
it is simply impossible to say. i think it may become clearer in the next few hours. continue the conversation with victor chu in hong kong, chairman of the hong kong business council. he is also chairman and ceo at first eastern investment. we are talking about the pound and the hung parliament and what this means. outside ofeurope, the u.k., people are observing that this is a country that is neither wanting hard brexit nor soft. neither wanting a hung parliament nor a real clear mandate. what is the u.k. want? >> looking at the results, i have a feeling they do not want a hard brexit. but brexit -- the train has left the station. they want a sensible brexit. i want to say it is up to them e.u. leaders to be sensible about it.
11:43 pm
secondly, people do not want a disintegration of the united kingdom. that is why it is not only a disaster for theresa may, but possibly the snp side. lookingite interesting, as a friend of the u.k. from afar. we enter the, as last leg of counting i want to bring up something on the bloomberg chart so our viewers can take a look. we are looking at a hung parliament. mind, is this the worst possible outcome for -- from a business perspective, a hung parliament? victor: no. obviously, a hung parliament in the recent two weeks is a real possibility. i am not surprised.
11:44 pm
it would depend on the combination of that hung parliament. who?er it is tory plus i think the political leaders should hear the people loud and clear, that they do not want a hard brexit, they want to sensible brexit, going forward. a lot ofcan be done, political wisdom from all sides will need to come into play. negotiations will be difficult, protected. but the voice of the people coming through the last 24 hours is quite clear to me, looking at this from hong kong. manus: just a quick one. victor, you can listen in. the political machinations we are facing, a number of recounts. the current home
11:45 pm
secretary, a recounts going on there. a.m., the prospect for markets as you log on to your terminal, it is a hung parliament. this is on your top live blog. get in there. thebbc are projecting tories, 43%. 40%.r up 10 points to we have a number of recounts here. as you and victor and angie and i have been talking about, this is potentially the risk. i think we will see more uncertainty going to gold and sterling and gilt. it could be that my country holds the key in many ways to power at number 10. extractld the unionists
11:46 pm
from theresa may if she does remain prime minister? that is the question for markets, hard brexits and borders. david: absolutely, who would've thought we would be here now. we are talking about all these potential outcomes. let's get more views. i want to bring into the conversation a china chairman of the british chamber of commerce from taipei. nicholas, thank you. your initial thoughts on what you're seeing now? nicholas: i have been glued to the tv screen like many people around the world. just as many political events last year also defied what pollsters said. there is some uncertainty going on. it is too early to take a view on how the future government will look in the u.k. from our perspective on the chair of the chamber of over 900 members and china, we are
11:47 pm
talking about business. we want whatever the political outcome, we want the china-u.k. relations to continue as they have been the last few years. trade and service incorporation between the two countries to continue to grow to the benefits of british and chinese business. angie: nicolas, i want to ask you about the pound. a weaker pound makes your job easier as you try to sell britain's goods overseas, it gives it a great discount. take a look at the volatility right now. that chart tells the story of the pound as investors take a look at what a hung parliament could mean. you see that volatility. once again, a weaker pound makes it easy for you to do business overseas. pound cutshe weaker
11:48 pm
both ways, certainly for british exporters it could be positive. at chinese investors looking the u.k., after the referendum last year when the pound fell significantly, we saw chinese, hong kong, other asian investors come into the u.k. parliament. especially in real estate, very much bold in that area. the currency could be beneficial to british business and chinese investors looking at the u.k. offd: nicholas, this may be tangent the part of the larger conversation, especially when it comes to relations between the u.k. and china -- when i was living in shanghai for several years, a lot of these wealthy chinese of families send their kids to the u.k. for school. that is a given. attacks we have seen in london and manchester, from
11:49 pm
the people you have talked to, has that destination been rethought? and whether or not we see that playing out in business commitments or concerns? on a businessink level, i do not think it will have too much impact. we have to remember terrorist attacks have also happened in france, bangkok, mumbai, the u.s. it is happening in many markets, including australia, not too long ago. these things, as tragic as they often massively affect business sentiment. it could impact tourist numbers to some small degree over the coming two or three months. often these things rebound quite quickly. really, really tragic events. but in the long term for u.k.-china relations, it should not have too much impact. manus: nicholas, the one thing we are debating here is markets, sterling, and the inward
11:50 pm
investment impact into the u.k. if a hard brexit, which is our -- many do not know what a theresa may assumption is. but if we are talking a less aggressive exit, a form of relationship with europe in terms of the eea, does that shift the dial on the conversation in terms of london, destination number one, number two after new york or hong kong? i think the outcome of the brexit negotiations are going to have an impact on certain industries. certainly banking and finance, passporting rights of investment banks. beckett have an impact on london is a financial center, in a narrow sense. london sits above paris, amsterdam, dublin, frankfurt by quite a way.
11:51 pm
when it to chinese investors or those looking at the u.k. market, london is still head and shoulders above the rest. one thing to remember, the makeup of the u.k. economy, especially london, it is changing. whereas banking and finance was the major driver of demand in london and other central london markets, technology sectors are really driving demand, really attracting a lot of inbound investment. a lot of big global technology companies, whatever happens with brexit, they are headquartered in london. we have had snapchat, google, apple. ,hatever happens with brexit soft or hard, london is still the place to be. angie: that may be the case, but if you have a weaker economy as a result of softer brexit, that changes the dynamic, doesn't it? 2% team of forecasting
11:52 pm
impact on u.k. gdp aced on a may victory. on a may victory. that uncertainty means there could be a bigger hit on gdp. nicholas: yes, uncertainty is never good. the thing to keep in mind if you think about the last 12 months, the u.k. has outperformed many of those on the 23rd of june is that we would be in dire straits now. inbound investment has been very strong. 77% of acquisitions in the central markets were by foreign investors who really believed in the long-term future of the u.k. and london economy, whatever happens with brexit. uncertainty will have some impact. but looking longer-term, we still believe the u.k. economy looks attractive, especially for chinese investors. david: i find it very hard to
11:53 pm
imagine it is not having any material impact. if you are sitting on a capex plan, looking at london for years, and you do not know what the legal framework will be between london and the confident , hownsonant, -- continent can you be confident to deploy that money? nicholas: it is true there are question marks, but that is true despite what happens in the u.k. there are issues in greece, italy, southern europe. we have to see how angela merkel can connect with the core axis. it is adding the next element of risk for many investors. investors are looking more closely. yes, uncertainty can play a part. manus: i am going to interrupt
11:54 pm
you there. we are going to go to the constituency for amber rudd. this is hastings. let's listen in. >> nicholas john wilson, independent area -- independent. that ame --c notice elected.d has been [applause] thank you, i would like to thank all of those who have done the job twice this evening. you did such a professional job, thank you. i would like to thank my team
11:55 pm
for such a fantastic job supporting me, working with me, making sure we were out today. i would like to thank also a labour candidate i know well. thank you for having a good, effective strategy. i am deeply honored to have been reelected a third time by the residents of hastings and rye. this is a fantastic place to live and work. i will continue i hope, to build on this great opportunity and regeneration taking place in this area, improving our schools and getting infrastructure investment we need. this is what really matters to me and what i hope to continue to deliver for the fantastic constituency of hastings and rye. thank you very much. [applause] rudd, a speech from amber
11:56 pm
with 70%. very, very short acceptance speech. is a secretary here in the united kingdom. it is under her watch we have had the rise of deeply unfortunate events, in terms of manchester attacks, london bridge attacks. waysnd theresa may in many they are the responsibility. officers,0,000 police and that goes into this dissipation of a great leader in the polls. up 20%. that is amber rudd. that acceptance speech was short. angie: the critical question now is, whether or not the conservatives are going to get 318, which is what the bbc are predicting.
11:57 pm
also as much as 325. it is all about northern ireland and whether arlene foster will to per hand and make a conservative coalition government there. absolutely. for our waking up in london i want to point out on the bloomberg terminal to give you a sense of where we are on euro sterling, we pushed above 88. 87.89, the current level. and i am looking at sterling or up,e, to those just waking 1.27ly -- we did dip below . we quickly recovered and have been trading at these levels for the most part over the hour or so. manus: thank you so much for being with us. , that is the euro
11:58 pm
sterling. 1.2752.pound theresa may, much dissipated. will we be back at the polls by the end of the year? is it she held hostage to a hung parliament or government by unionists? what might they extract? how once earned of a time is this in the u.k. in terms of our income? david, you focused in on at the past two hours. we are done. go ahead, angie. angie: i want to jump in on that point. with of the current situation you have arage brit, savings rates going down, a weaker pound, uncertainty economic future and unemployment. people are feeling that political uncertainty play out in their real lives.
11:59 pm
this is what is playing out. unemployment low numbers, but a squeeze on real wages. you hit the nail on the head. david: when we do carry the conversation into the economics of it all, from here in asia when we were watching these debates leading up to today, you got a strong sense that the key issues were not really about brexit, they were about core domestic issues. like wages. -- where does funding go? security, more policeman on the streets. we are looking at live pictures, there is theresa may in london. to give you a sense of where we are as far as counting -- my
12:00 am
mistake. those are not live pictures. 650 is what we are looking at. 604 is where we are. angie: manus. manus: let's see what shape this takes. great to be with you both, david and angie in asia. i am manus cranny in london. ♪ manus: the election gamble backfires. teresa's made future as you k's u.k.'s prime minister. a hung parliament. >> this country needs a period of stability. if, as the


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on