tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg August 13, 2017 12:00am-1:00am EDT
infrastructure minister from the uae as they hope to write out ride out the-- slump in oil prices. tracy: this is "bloomberg markets: middle east." we have the exclusive interview with the infrastructure minister coming up. we will be asking him about all sorts of things, to buy spending blockade the qatari dude first, let's check in with what is happening around the world. here are the first word headlines. let's check in on those headlines. incidents related to clashes in a wiser premises to rally in
charlottesville, virginia left to some dead and others injured in a helicopter crash. it was to protest the removal of a statue of general robert e lee. >> we condemn in the strongest possible terms this egregious display of hatred, bigotry and violence you'd on many sites. --sides. many are criticizing the president for not coming out against the far right groups that supported his campaign. president trump is sending his son-in-law into senior adviser to the middle east to restart peace talks between israel and palestine. jared kushner will lead the delegation in the meetings along with leaders from qatar, jordan, the uae. trump wants to set an ambitious agenda and is hopeful your kushner can start a -- kushner can start a peace process.
killedposition party kenya'sn disputes about elections. winner of the elections was --lared, but there has been the results. .nd a train disaster in europe friday's crash was the deadliest and more than a decade on egypt's aging network and left around 120 people injured. officials say the train traveling from cairo slammed into the back of another train, which is stopped suddenly due to an engine fault. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
rhetoric onump's everything from north korea to venezuela has soured sentiment on emerging markets. let's geteing -- the to our editor. let's get to the broad picture. was down on friday. this is say something specific about em? >> it says something about the sentiment toward risk assets in general. emerging markets have been doing quite well this year, particularly the stock markets, the msci has come out strongly. this is an opportunity for investors who have seen to some extent looking for an excuse to get out of some of these positions. it is not a specifically
emerging-market focused phenomenon, but you'll probably see investors continuing to take money off of perhaps the weaker credits in the horizon. tracy: one point to make is that south korea is still counted as an emerging market country despite having lots of multinationals like samsung. it shows up in indexes like this. another point has to be venezuela. trump also has words about venezuela. how is that playing out following his talk of potential military intervention? justin: it is interesting because it plays directly into thataduro narrative venezuela is a victim of u.s. conspiracy, it is being spied on by the u.s. it plays into his hand to some degree and takes the wind out of the sails of the opposition, who are in a bad place at the moment.
conditions on the ground in venezuela are dreadful. we will have to see where that goes. it probably isn't exactly what the opposition are looking for, if we are going to see the eventual regime change that a lot of the liberal elements in venezuela and latin america as a whole are looking for. tracy: we have important elections in argentina coming up. but are you looking at? justin: these are not national elections, but the crucial thing the --much support support a certain group gets. it's this party has a strong a littleit will take bit of a positive sentiment toward argentina coming out of the market. them trying to reform the way the argentinian economy a structure. the challenges controlling inflation without upsetting the strong labor unions should --
unions. you cangroup does well, see some worry kicking into argentine market tomorrow morning when they open. tracy: in terms of the broader outlook for emerging markets? successful -- big success story since donald trump was elected. are these hiccups? justin: we are looking at the part of interest rates -- u.s. interest rates and the production of the fed balance sheet. the looking for signs of appear inbeginning to the u.s., and the key thing is wage growth. that is not coming through at the moment. as long as that prevails and the fed seems steady as you go, the bid for emerging markets and the relative pickup you can get on emerging markets assets and bonds particular relative to the rest of the world will stay there, regardless of the geopolitical backdrop, which is a distraction. should it get worse, we are in a
very different situation. right now, those fundamentals largely prevail. tracy: always lovely having you on the show. speaking of geopolitical risk, let's discuss some of that a bit more. we are joined by the founder and head of research for lighthouse research. we were just talking about geopolitical risks, it seems like it is everywhere at the moment. how do you see the market trying to price that geopolitical risk? justin was talking about north korea before, and we are really getting closer to potential catastrophe. if you think back to the human missile crisis. this was a catastrophe that was narrowly averted, according to robert mcnamara. if we look then, we had kennedy, khrushchev and castro, and
trump, xi and cam. i'm not sure i like -- xi and kim. i'm not sure i like our odds. and it is also venezuela, it is all over the map and unpredictable. tracy: another story in emerging markets, or supposed to it's a frontier markets, the iran cabinet announcement last week. rouhani has been getting flack for keeping the status quo. we did not see any women promoted. what does that tell you about the reform efforts in iran? jean-paul: i think i can understand why people in iran are looking for more social reform are looking -- are upset. the broader reform effort i think is positive. we saw a lot of continuity with story, there is a reform going on in iran right now, it is just largely going untold. likeu look at indicators
the world bank survey. central honey has been elected, he is been one of the biggest performers in the world. atis not being looked because we have distractions like donald trump, ongoing threats, increasing sanctions. the business environment in iran, it is not switzerland and it is never going to be and does not have to be. that is not stopping european investment from coming in. tracy: how important is the u.s. angle to the iran story? trump was also making noises about iran, saying he thought iran was not in compliance with the nuclear deal. what does that mean? jean-paul: in my opinion, no matter what happens with the cabinet choices, the greatest risk to iran's investment climate is that they are external. not just from the threat of increased sanctions, but the
ongoing reluctance of u.s. banks , and banks in the region that want to do business with iran. that will remain a perennial threat over the next four years. i don't see that changing. i don't think there is anything that can be done domestically in iran to change that. out last results came week, sales and iran grew over 100%. the market share increase over four percentage points. that is a massive increase. it is not just a niche market. there is a lot of untapped potential, and a lot of europeans are willing to invest. tracy: scenario where the u.s. backs away even more from iran, does europe become the de facto business partner? jean-paul: that is a great question. iran is looking for its own hong kong. hong kong made a great role for multinationals to enter the chinese market. it used to be played here in the uae in general and dubai in
particular. if you look across the region, there is not seem to be a lot of willingness to take on that role at the moment. the question is, who is going to be iran's hong kong. moves coming out of the market like oman, but they are too small. if i look like delhomme -- if i look at doha, they are tied by the natural gas deal. qatar has many of the benefits the uae has, in terms of a welcoming investment climate. tracy: a bit of a contrary and take on qatar. i want to dig into that with you in a few minutes. in the show, we will be joined by the uae minister for if a structure development. we will get his take on the country's economy and the impact of a prolonged spat with qatar. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ tracy: this is "bloomberg markets: middle east." i am tracy alloway in dubai. we are here with the founder of lighthouse research. we want to discuss oil because oil just posted another pretty bad week despite the best efforts by opec, which just held a technical meeting. i want to show you a chart. the 100overing above day moving average, which would be a bearish signal traditionally. you have to think the momentum is trending downward. walk us through what is happening in the market. i know you are not an oil expert, but from a broader macro respective, why has opec not had
the desired effect? jean-paul: i don't think we have seen opec's test efforts -- best efforts at the cut that was agreed in november. i think compliance is around 75% in july. that is from opec, not opec compliance is less than that. in what world 75% compliance is considered a success or best effort, i don't know. if i give a client 75% of what i had agreed to give them, i would be out of a job. we have not seen the full agreement from last year be implemented. from my perspective, it is way too early to talk about additional cuts following the expiration in march, 20 18, because they need to comply with the agreement in the first place. the broader environment, a lot of the rallying that has been driven in oil prices has been a factor of dollar weakness.
the dollar index is down about 10%. the fed doesn't look like it will raise interest rates anytime soon after we saw that low inflation reading on friday. that has been supportive for the dollar, but to the extent we don't expect the dollar weakness to continue through the remainder of the year. my perspective, i look at the chart and i think the prices will hit $40 per barrel before they hit $55 per barrel. tracy: let's say they stay in the $45 to $55 range. what is that due to gulf economies? jean-paul: hopefully it keeps reform in check. every minute we are focused on the oil price, it's a minute we are not focused on the broader reform efforts that need to happen to put the regional economy on a sounder footing for the longer term. we need to continue our efforts at cutting back on expenditures. we have seen a lot of reforms
but not the most notable changes in terms of cutting back on public-sector salaries and raising nonoil revenues. there are different ways they can do that. we're seeing the introduction of a vap on generate first next year, but there are other avenues they can take in terms of developing a nonoil sectors across the region. none of it has to do with oil. my perspective, when i look at this region for the long-term, the best case scenario for the long-term outlook is for out -- while prices to say about $45 to $55 per barrel. that will keep it on track. tracy: the best of both worlds. you pointed to saudi consumers sentiment in a recent report. let me show you this chart. withdrawalsy atm versus oil price. you could argue there is a bit of a correlation there. and terms of the outlook for saudi spending in the face of
oil prices, what you think of the latest data? jean-paul: it is not great, to be perfectly honest. it is always guaranteed saudi arabia will be part of posting a full your recession this year. leaving aside the cuts to oil production, if you look at what is happening in the nonoil economy, it does not look great at the moment. you are pointing to atm withdrawals, that is a great indicator. i also look at things like ribbons outflows -- remittance outflows. the nature of these economies, a lot of ex-pats phil -- fill jobs in the nonoil economy. it is an indication of what is happening on the ground. it has slowed down considerably out of saudi arabia. you look at things like cement sales, a proxy for a fixed investment. they have collapsed. consumer confidence hit its lowest level on record as of august. all of that tells me there is
very minimal growth taking place in the nonoil economy at the moment. tracy: let's switch over to qatar. it has been two months since we seem -- we have seen the embargo get off the ground. walk us through your thinking. jean-paul: i have a contrarian take for the long-term. for the short term, i thought qatar would be relatively isolated from what is going on because of the structure of its economy, but that does not mean i'm you. it will be impacted by what is going on. we don't have a lot of data on the qatari economy in terms of monthly data availability. you look at things like the value of cleared checks. those collapsed in june. you'll get monetary data, that is not been great. q2 results were not showing signs of strength. their economy in 2017 will probably post zero or even negative growth. the long-term is what i think we
should be concerned about. the reason i am more optimistic on the long-term is because the crisis creates a sense of urgency for reform. we've seen reform in terms of allowing foreigners to have residency, we have seen tourism these a liberalization. the most important one i think as we mentioned before, is there potential relationship with iran , closer ties with iran and being the gateway to that huge market. tracy: let me play devil's advocate. you are very bullish on the reform prospects for the region, but i have seen some very illustrious academics make the point that oil exporting economies have a comparative advantage when it comes to producing oil. the idea that they will be able to diversify completely might be a nonstarter. jean-paul: i might have given the wrong impression as myself as an optimist on reform. i am certainly not.
i think there are a lot of different areas for reform in the gcc that we are looking at. we are seeing the most progress on the lowest hanging fruit, subsidy reform, allowing energy prices to rise, that is an easy reform for a lot of these governments to make. we've also seen progress in terms of trading new investment laws and incentives to create stronger growth in the nonoil economy. the third rail of reform in the region, and the most important is probably the public sector employment. when i look at the market hike saudi arabia, one of their biggest fundamental structural weaknesses is the size of the public-sector workforce. we've not seen any efforts to fundamentally reform that sector. we saw it last year, the government cut back on public-sector bonuses and salaries, that those were reversed in april and again it was announced they would be fully reinstated. that shows me that when push comes to shove, a lot of these governments are not yet willing
to take the most urgent actions at reform. you are actually sticking with this for the entire show. you're sort of a guest host today. we will have more with you in a second. coming up next, we will discuss egypt. cap inflation data out on thursday. it shows a record 33% year on year. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ tracy: we're back with the founder of white house research. -- lighthouse research. with the talking about egypt because we had inflation data on thursday, it is that a stunning 33% year on year. thursday,s we saw on double-digit growth continues when it comes to inflation. when do we expect the figure to
begin coming down? look at that you chart behind you, obviously a lot of this has been driven by the valuation of the egyptian pound. once the effect of that unwinds in the summer of this year, you will see the headline rate of inflation drop by potentially 10% points to the low 20's. that is still quite an elevated rate of consumer price inflation, a lot of it in the most recent release in july was driven by an increase in subsidies, energy subsidies, which is a positive sign. tracy: part of the imf agreement, as well. jean-paul: absolutely. i said i was not an optimist, but i have not been optimistic about the egyptian economy, but the past few months i have been encouraged by about -- by the amount of reform momentum from the government. they are pushing through difficult measures. quickly, we have a bank
of egypt meeting coming up next week. they have been surprising people in some ways with their recent action. where do you see them going in next week and beyond? jean-paul: next week, i don't see any change the policy. last time i think they raised rates by 200 basis points. i think they will come down to the end of the year. a lot of the monetary policy tightening we've seen this year, it is not have to do with inflation. we discussed this before. there is little that monetary policy in egypt can do to contain inflation that is being driven by the valuation and subsidy reforms. i saw the interest rate hike, and saw the previous rate hikes as a way to attract foreign capital in the portfolio market. every statement we have had, the positive has been positive in the since they are tracking record amounts into the local debt market. reserves are increase. tracy: i wish i could ask you
♪ >> it is a: 30 a.m. in dubai. there 90 minutes away from market open and the start of a new trading week. let's take a check of the first word headlines before we begin. the chinese president has moved to calm tensions over north korea telling donald trump all signs should maintain restraint and avoid inflammatory comments. the phone call came shortly after the trump added to aggressive tweets saying the military was locked and loaded it north korea acted unwisely. earlier, north korea accused trump of moving the korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war.
defense minister said his country will defend itself from what he called the madness of donald trump. the statement came a day after the u.s. president said he is considering military options in response to the escalating little and economic crisis in the oil-producing nation. venezuela has been subject to increasing sanctions since its president convened a national assembly to rewrite the country's constitution. iran is reportedly in talks with airbus to buy 35 helicopters. thenews agency quoted deputy aviation minister saying they will be bought by the health minister -- the health ministry emergency division. it is said to be part of an earlier deal to buy plants from the european aircraft maker. the minister also said an additional three helicopters will be bought separately for maritime use. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
the uaeur next guest is minister of infrastructure development. his excellency, thank you for joining us today. i want to start with the biggest question i could start with, the blockade of qatar. walk us through how that is affecting the uae maritime trade and it sports -- its ports. >> good morning to you and your audience. is, as far ase the infrastructure minister, the strategy of our port is a minute issue and we are not discussing it at all. tracy: not at all, all right. the us through some of uae's upcoming plans in terms of infrastructure spending. we've had reports saying you are looking to increase that spending. what is the thing -- the thinking?
infrastructure as roads ports, airports and trendings actually within the region. as far as the ports, we are 25% investment over the $60 billion worth of investment being put in place in the uae. that is for the next decade. we are looking into plans of improving our airport facilities during the next 10 years. talk to us about the financing you envision as you seek to improve various infrastructure projects and transport developments here in the uae. is the scope for more public-private partnership? the ptp issue is trending
buty, not only in the uae it is a worldwide issue. sector have the private as a partner in most of our projects come out infrastructure projects. or other projects, we are driven by the private sector. we are a market-driven country. always,ate sector is has always been considered as a partner for the development of the uae. what is the private sector appetite for financing these kinds of infrastructure projects like at the moment? >> it is huge. tremendous. investors, many
institutions are looking into partnering with us. we recently are getting into some lighting projects. we are seeing offers from all over the world to probably put the new street lighting on our road infrastructure in the uae. that is tremendous. you've seen a huge appetite within the uae specifically, and the region in general. tracy: new street lighting. that is exciting. we had a report recently about to buy planning to reform a one billion shipping investment fund . walk us through the thinking and what you might use that fund for. not within the
circle of such a project. all caps very little input to give you on this issue. nonetheless, any investment that is made within the uae, it is actually building on the stability of the business the appropriate strategies the government is putting forward for investors. whether this project or any such project, it is having a good climate for business within the uae. tracy: your excellency, since we're talking about the industry, the shipping industry, i noticed the uae is the only arab country to be bidding for category b never ship in associationitime
council. why is that important to you? >> this is probably continuing offset previous question. -- all of the previous question. this is driven by the private industry. we have courts within the uae. within the uae. islso assumed the council where most of the legislation rules and regulations are being prepared. within that industry that is industryn the uae, the that we as a government, we should be an incubator for the willingness for the uae to be a member of the council. one thing the industry requiring, we have a great infrastructure in the uae as far
as maritime. we are number three in the world as far as infrastructure as far as maritime is concerned. be able toeed to participate in formulating the rules and regulations. the second part is the legislation we have. the rules that we have, the business environment we have, it would actually be a great incubator for us to be participating in a win-win situation with the imo. we can provide them with what it takes to improve also their business environment. region,have within the we have over 20 ports within the uae did three of them -- within the uae.
three of them are in the top 10 for the last three consecutive years. we have good reason to be part of the council. sea tolet's jump from land transport good i want to talk about the gulf rail project. is that officially dead given the existing delays and the situation with qatar? >> i don't know where we got the idea of dead. project, and we as far as the uae, we are -- we have completed over 266 kilometers. we are negotiating with saudi incorporate in their activities within. we're also arranging with our neighbors to continue with that.
thear as the rail within uae, it is on the go, and we are looking into options of executing it. tracy: looking at the whole of big, weit, which is have air, land and sea transport. give us a holistic, rough estimate of your upcoming financing needs. -- we are give you billioninto over 20 dollars of investment over the next decade. for such industry. most of it is going into the maritime. wellaritime industry is a -- is well-established in the uae, and we think we should
improve the status. uae, we have a from where they -- a firm with a management and 57 ports worldwide. with these, we really need to put additional investment, additional strategies to improve the market, as well. abu dhabi ports are also improving the status of their ports. and willen tremendous require additional improvable. as far as the uae, we are doing great on that side. as far as the rail, our new strategies have to be
established, and probably by the end of the year we will know who is participating on the rail. overr as the road, we have a billion dollars in investment over the next few decades -- $8 billion in investment over the next few decades for improvements. uaey: all right, the minister of infrastructure development. thank you for joining us. coming up, can penny for the upcoming german elections has kicked off. we will have more. this is bloomberg. ♪
in september and campaigning is underway. matt miller filed this report from berlin on angela merkel's current position in the race. this is bloomberg. she is the reporter: clearreporter -- candidate to win. but they don't want to assume she will win. things have changed quickly. to fight on a number of issues. the most important of which looks like right now it will be the diesel issue. this interrupted two years ago in the u.s., volkswagen cheating on its omissions. here in germany, it has just become a massive issue in the past you weeks. merkel has to appear tough on the automakers even though the employee 800,000 people in the country. one in five jobs is some way connected to the auto industry. that does not leave a lot of room for the spd to work against
her. the minister on volkswagen's board is an spd minister. there will have to take a hard stance, that they will not be able to push her to much on that issue. the also will not be of pusher too much on the refugee issue, since she has done a great job of occupying the center. that is her strength on every issue. she holds the center, she takes the credit for all of the victories she achieves and manages to spread the blame along all of her coalition partners. remember the cdu and as the you are a grad -- grand coalition. losesr she winds are after the election, the question is what does the next coalition look light? if she winds, will she tried to continue the coalition or will she tried a coalition with smaller parties? manages to pull out a
victory, will they work with the liberal sdp, will they work with the greens and left? will they be able to put together a coalition with smaller parties or will they have to look at a grand coalition? the coalition russian is the biggest right now and it looks like merkel is a clear favorite to win with a 16 point lead. miller int was matt berlin for us. let's get back to our guest from lighthouse research. he has been with us the entire show and we are not done with him yet. the elections in germany, angela --kel clearly the figure it the favorite to win, but if we have learned anything, is that we can see upsets when it comes to political races. what are the chances we get one of those again, what would be the driving force for that and the market impact? jean-paul: i'm not going to say we have not -- we're not going to get a surprise, since we have
seen surprises. but as matt miller said, i think the key is not the headline election results, a 16 point lead is strong. it comes down to a portion of representation and talks over coalition partners. --portional rep position representation, we don't know. were not looking at much change in german politics, but when you look ahead to 2018, there are issues they need to confront. were talking about refugees, brexit, relations with the trump and russia. there is definitely a lot on the agenda. talk about politics in 2017 have impacted market, it has been quite contained overall. i don't know that investors are necessarily looking at politics in europe right now as the main risk factor. i think that has come from the ecb.
tracy: speaking of the ecb, we do have jackson hole coming up relatively soon. mario draghi, you will remember in 2014, kind of still the headlines when he gave a speech that ended up in a front runner to the big bond buying program the ecb eventually announced. what might we expect to hear from him this time around? jean-paul: i'm not sure, but i'm sure a lot of people in europe are hoping he starts to talk down the euro. we have seen a rallying this year. it is quite surprising. 2017, we are 10 years out from the financial crisis. a lot of attention is on the ecb and how it helped the eurozone recovery. when you look at the eurozone from a top-down, macro perspective, 2017 versus 2007, you are still presiding over what is ultimately a dysfunctional currency. we've not seen much progress in terms of fiscal union, not all
the way in terms of any kind of the banking union. a lot of the structural weaknesses that have undermined the eurozone over the past decade, they are very much there today. tracy: speaking of dysfunction, that's jump -- let's jump to the u.s. we have the debt ceiling deadline soon. how much of an issue is that for you? are you watching it closely? jean-paul: it's like groundhog day. it comes up every year. ultimately you get down to the wire and the resolution gets past -- passed. the main risk factors coming out of the u.s., we talked about that at the top of the show. i don't see it as the debt ceiling. you have trump in north korea and venezuela threatening war. these are risks i think investors are underplaying at the moment. obviously the fed, what will happen with not necessarily interest rate hikes, i think one
rate hike in december is maybe a 40% chance at this rate, but what also happens with the normalization with the fed balance sheet and the leadership of the fed. we don't know in 2018 what will happen. tracy: no we don't, and i love the characterization of the debt ceiling as groundhog day. we see it come around every couple of years, and every year people by u.s. treasuries to hedge the risk. thank you for joining us for basically the entire hour. always lovely to have you on. coming up next, we will try to get a read on what to look out for in gulf equity markets as we start a new trading week. that is coming up ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
things going on in the region. we had a very important announcement friday involving two telecom companies in the gulf. biggestone of the operators in the country. they announced they are buying a stake in kuwait, which is an important player, they have operations in several different parts of the region. it has moved a lot of stocks, in kuwait mostly, investors see this as an important move in terms of lowering leverage -- and it will be seen as interesting for dividends holders. we should see a lot of movement in both names. mostly for kuwait. tracy: it's interesting to see that kind of cross-border deal. >> it is, it is an interesting opportunity to have more exposure to markets they don't. very much restricted to
the omani market, we know it is limited in terms of revenues in comparison to other markets in the region. tracy: we will watch the shares and a little over an hour for sure. what about israel? that has been interesting story given what is going on. >> we saw a very hard day for israeli stocks on thursday. the index was down for 11 consecutive days. the longest losing streak in 11 years. i'm sorry, or than 23 years. since 1984. 11 was number of days it was down. there should be a continuation on that. we had it makes on this very bad sentiment toward, companies, a companies,rd pharma and also political tension. it is the worst moment for the city happening. one company was the opposite direction.
the only company up on thursday in tel aviv, basically because they increased their estimates for earnings for last year. it was up 21% in tel aviv. it was close to 20% thursday and friday in new york. this could be a name that might be the bright side in israel right now. tracy: some fireworks in that market. thank you so much for bringing us the latest, as always. , whereead over to doha yousef is standby. what are you in qatar and what you have for us tomorrow? out andi like to head go to some of the actual hotspots, if you want to call it good -- call it. the line has been that qatar's economy is resilient. i'm here to find out how resilient. we will have conversations with key decision-makers to get context. interesting to point out, ongoing pressure on the balance
sheets for some of the qatari name. also, what is happening with liquidity. big lenders might cap the market to try and overcome, from what we understand, that are shortages when it comes to liquidity. also, in creditors -- ian creditors are looking at short data spreads. these are interesting place. withovernment play implicit government support, most of the revenue government driven. and then you have where most of the revenue comes from out of the country. relative toder their peers. tracy: we will look forward to your reporting from doha to market that is it for this edition of "bloomberg markets: middle east." we will be live from the region again tomorrow. yousef gamal el-din will be in doha, please do check it out. ♪
scarlet: from new york and our bureaus, i am scarlet fu. we have 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ coming up, joining a course of investors saying the time to reduce risk is now. plus, elon musk brings his term to the debt market. as tesla looks to raise $1.5 billion. new u.s. inflation numbers for janet yellen 221, where does it -- janet yellen to chew on