tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg September 28, 2017 10:00am-11:00am EDT
barton and welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪ bonnie: here are the top stories on the bloomberg and around the world. the tax reform plan as out there. president trump says it will dramatically reshape american business for decades to come. >> under the framework we will dramatically cut the business tax rate so that american companies anrkers can beat foreign competitors and start winning again. so, what are the main obstacles to passing tax reform in congress? theave an interview with house budget committee chairman, diane black. in europe, how are banks commissioned now that angela merkel has clinched a fourth term and negotiations remain
largely at a standstill? forill head live to milan an interview with vittorio grilli. taylor riggs is with us to explain what's moving. taylor: we were down a bit, we had big gains yesterday on the s&p and nasdaq and today coming off the tax form proposals, taking a bit of a breather. taking a step back to say how will we get this enacted, is it just the opening argument, when will the lobbying efforts start? i want to stick with tax reform. come with me to my terminal. we have been talking a lot about how small caps have outperformed large caps. small caps are more domestically-based companies in a fitting from a lower tax rate in the u.s.. here we have targeted the russell 2000 compared to the s&p
500 and you have seen a bit of outperformance. look at the big spike up yesterday. in the relative outperformance compared to the s&p. not anywhere close to what we saw after the election, but will nonetheless pretty big moves for small caps yesterday. when we talk about the individual stocks we are looking at, i'm looking at mcdonald's, which is a little bit higher uy.ay after a raise to a b legal a report, 43% of atijuana users eight mcdonald's in the last four weeks. mcdonald's and tocco bell, benefiting from legalized pot. let's wrap it up on bonds, because of a bond girl. look at the moves in the 10 year yield before the tax reform. we saw 226 up to 232.
take a look at those moves. i spoke with ben humans, who said that we broke out of that channel when the 10 year was between 180 and 220. the next mark we should be looking at should be 250 to 260. keep your eyes out here on bonds. mark? i can't top your mcdonald's fact, but i can tell you that stocks are rising. its touch and go, but oil and gas insurers are leading the advance. high close yesterday in a couple of months. sinking,s, earlier, the biggest decline in 15 months, marked down, squeezing profits, prompting the swedish retailer to step up investments in e-commerce. it's an expensive quest for new sources of growth. h&m planning to introduce another new rand this year after recently opening stores under the arquette name.
they say they are's -- they are expanding online sales after those summer markdowns hit profit margins. shares are down by 5.5% today. even bowls are turning into bears in the bond market. the 10 year yield, the highest since february, mirroring what's happening to bond markets across the globe. we are seeing more hawkish central bank commentary here. went shortstors after keeping a long position. through much of the summer the investors boost bets that they could raise rates as soon as november with mutual global maintaining a short position, expecting the 10 year yield to surge from 1.5% to 1.6%. the 10-year gilt yields have mostd 36% this month, the since october of 2016. this is our wonderful world interest-rate probability function. interesting comments last night
from the chief economist at the boe, he said he is among the majority of policymakers who sees the economy nearing the point where a reduction in some stimulus might be warranted. we have had similar sorts of , which is why we are seeing the probability of a rate hike in november at 76%. athe beginning of the month it was at 22% at it all comes today as the boe holds that conference, celebrating 20 years since independence. isn't it't -- vonnie: amazing? businesses and individuals will now have more clarity on the details of the tax overhaul. as the country changes, one topp is standing fast, the tax earners could be in line for a tax break. here with more what the framework might mean, peggy
collins, bloomberg u.s. investment editor. or threeere are two main pillars in the proposal, what are they? peggy: the first thing out of the gate is proposing to drop the top income tax rate. right off the bat, that sounds good for top earners. second thing is repeal of the estate tax. something that republicans have tried to do for many years and it again would be something that would be beneficial to the wealthy who are transferring their wealth to children, grandchildren, and heiress. -- heirs. a lot of people over there own business and set them up as partnerships. they are proposing to drop the rate on that tip 25% in turn of the past -- in terms of the pass-through income that goes through the entities. those are some of the biggest pillars. one of the big questions is itemized deductions.
that is a jump ball on whether or not that would actually take away benefits. mark: we vonnie: -- we will get will get- vonnie: we to that in the second, but advisers are telling you and yoteam that parts of the plan are unlikely to ever come to fruition and they are worried about other parts? that's right, one of the big parts that wealth advisors said hold on about was the estate tax. we thought a lot of wealth advisors would say it was great for their clients and instead they are saying they are not sure if it will go through because it is a huge hit to the revenue and what would they do in place of that? there's not details around the changes in capital gains rates, but that come -- could come into play. could there be a capital gains tax rate on items they are passing down to the heirs out the gate? thane: if you have more $5.5 billion, right? peggy: that's right.
and a couple of them are over $10 billion. mark: what about the concern in markets with high states and local taxes. peggy: itemized inductions are key for wealthy people who can own a home and they say they will be keeping mortgage interest in charitable duction's in the u.s.. state and local is something that a lot of people get a benefit from. the proposal includes an improvement on amt, meaning you are improving on the deductions. the devil is in the details and many wealth advisors are saying that they need more of those before they tell clients to make any moves in the markets this year. i would urge everyone to check out those stories on the bloomberg. let's go over the broader
implications of tax reform. we have one of the co-creators off discussedex, this year. due to the fact that it is at historically low levels. obvious question, given your cocreator, why is it at such low levels question mark why isn't it picking up? >> you could argue that it's not that low because volatility in markets has been a lot lower than the vix, which measures implied volatility. volatility is low for a number of reasons, including the fact that stocks have been moving in a number of different directions. and the fact that markets don't know what to make of the macro events coming up, whether it's north korea or elections in europe, or news out of the u.s., it has become so frequent the markets don't know how to respond to it. options are expensive and the vix measures those.
they are low compared to long-term. mark: what will press it, then? you mentioned the macro geopolitical risks. what's the signal? a couple of things. first, we should talk about whether it is good or bad and then whether it will go up. for people like me it's good news, the fact that stocks have been moving in different directions has given all sorts of opportunities. volatility tose go up? probably something that cses the stock to move more similarly agai, something the market realizes is a significant macro event. last year for example the big european political events turned out to be essentially nonevents within a few days. so, i think it would have to be something that really catches the markets by surprise.
the one that i think that we would worry about the most would be the fed raising rates more rapidly than the markets are anticipating. mark: sandy, i want to talk about tibbetts, the wonderful story that we produced yesterday . how ai went from nuclear bunker to stardom. fund, yourge company. so many questions. this way, whatt can humans do that ai can't or won't be able to do? sandy: we don't really think it's ai, we think it's machine learning and there is a difference. it's a bit of a science-fiction term, ai. mark: call the machine learning. sandy: i'd like that. the things that machine learning can do and benefits from, the amount of data out there has increased so dramatically, storing that data has become incredibly cheap and the cost of processing and doing things with it has become incredibly cheap.
that's either a good thing or a bad thing. if you don't know how to use those tools, it's a threat for you. if you are able to build the technology and harness it, it's a fantastically powerful thing. there are clearly things that machines have not learned how to do. we have taught them how to read, but they can't read right well. but they can read a lot. earnings transcripts, it we can read all the earnings calls in real-time, but we can't do with machines is come up with massively insightful conclusions. we have frets but not that when looking at reading, which applies to all sorts of other things. the machines haven't worked out how to do that yet. at what what -- vonnie: point do y anticipate machines being able to do those kinds of things? more accurately predicting company earnings is something that we end many
others are working on, very actively. right now. there are many ways you can do that but essentially you try to encompass as much of the available information as possible and more than a human could digest on their own. reading is harder and there is definitely reading going on. reading really technical stuff, bond prospectuses, as an comma lieshere the in the clause, that can change the clause, you don't need to wary about that. that's a ways off. vonnie: at what point will it advance to doing more than digesting huge amounts of data? when will they be able to make conclusions and parallels between things, perhaps even forecast the next financial crisis? sandy: well, forecasting the nest financial crisis the's that seem to be within the skill of humans or machines at the moment. i won't hold that one is the
standard that we will try to achieve. what we have got machines to do is rather high quality short-term forecasts. we are interpreting a lot of data very rapidly. you can help you in the next minutes or hours. they are probably less good in this particular field with the machine learning, likely to go more to the fundamental techniques for the medium term. i think it is making steady advances. the other thing that i think is worth knowing is that it is very hard to ask a machine learning technique why it came up with a particular conclusion. that is something that humans do well, but the machines are learning from the data but haven't learned how to get an explanation -- given explanation of what they've learned. mark: they operate in ways that are not always clear to even their creators. some researchers are advocating the establishment of a machine as weng review regime,
have in the drug industry. is that necessary? are there safeguards? sandy: the idea that the machines would run out of control and do something dangerous or terrible is reasonably far-fetched. i think that that is relatively unlikely to happen. i think you have got a world, actually, if you look at making almost in stocks, it's entirely done by machines. that role has shifted. there have been flash crashes and other events where perhaps a negative feedback has occurred to cause markets to run out of control, usually for a short time but the evidence is that there were just as many of those sorts of events before machines became a significant part of market making. often use is we our rhythm of version.
people are scared of algorithms and will often use these sorts of stories to explain why machines are bad and humans are good. does the performance of machine learning funds match the hype or not? sandy: we have been trying not to have the hype. others have created it for us. if you look both at the macro space, where humans have found have foundwhere they it difficult for a few years now, it's reasonably clear that in the macro space, machines have done better than humans have done. in equities and picking single stocks, it's actually a bit more balanced. machines are good generally, they take out the factor risk, the sector risk of exposure to large companies and things like that. normally when you create a machine driven strategy you say it's not the risk i want to take , i want to focus on the single name risk and humans have taken
that factor so as not to be so skilled at the factor risk. they tend to be good at the single name risk and i think that the challenge for humans is not to fight the machines but to which machiness can do better for them. check it out, the headline -- maybe they couldn't fit in the machine learning? sandy: i've tried, should i try again? [laughter] mark: sandy, great to talk to you. do come back, it's us -- it's a fascinating story. vittorio grilli, they're --sandy rattray, there. taking the last out of gold today, hedging for the biggest monthly loss this year. futures in focus is next. this is bloomberg. . ♪
♪ mark: from new york -- vonnie: from new york and london, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: and i'm mark barton. futures in focus, a continued rally showing crude stockpiles taking affect with gold producing a global glut, heading to the biggest drop since november. joining us now from the cme to discuss, ted site fred. , up we are in a bull market to highs we haven't seen since april. what are the key levels on the upside? ted: like you said, these are new recent highs. we broke the may 25 highs, this is looking pretty good. target, we put that
in last april and it's looking likely that we will go past it. the courtesy an independent vote brought in iran as restricting exports. earlier in the week we saw chinese stocks down, suggesting really good demand. stocks came down more than the api did. we were expecting another building here. 5.4 percent 86.8% this week, that's good, but production is starting to near the record of 9.5 million bushels -- barrels per day. if that continues to ramp up, that could keep a lid on crude oil. we have seen it top out in his mid 50 area a number of times before. are we going to see another weekly decline? you might start to see the number ramp back up again and we could be treading into territory that has been significantly
bearish for crude in times past. mark: gold is on track for its worst month of the year. it has certainly lost its luster since those early september highs. can the narrative be changed from the fed hiking rates in december? a geopolitics hasn't seemed to be able to sustain it on the upside. been so manyve chances for things to happen geopolitically that just haven't so far. we have taken a premium out of gold now at this point. the fed iseing very hawkis this point. they talked about continual and gradual hikes. fed funds are putting in over a 60% chance of the rate hike before the end of the year, so we will see. we really need to hold this 1275 leveling gold. this is an important level, it's a trend line. if we can hold it, which i've got to think we will, we could
see it bounce to 1310 and if we get back to that, back to the highs, but if we get to the 1275 level, the chart starts to look pretty bearish for crude. probably more likely out in the 1210 level that we saw as a july low. mark: thank you, ted. vonnie: coming up, an exclusive interview. eastern, be at 4 p.m. 9 p.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪
beatnalyst estimates with record software revenue, the software maker succeeding in a pivot away from hardware. they said they would meet the demands of those regulators with the watchdog informing companies of their compensation rights after 18,000 flights. to agoing process link pilot shortage, due among other reasons, to new vacation regulations. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. still ahead, vittorio grilli, the european investment banker, will join us. we will ask what the banking hyman is like with macron at the weekend, merkel in charge of the two largest companies in europe -- countries in europe. ♪
markets." let's check in with first word news and emma in new york. donald trump says a reducing the tax rate is an en route -- nonnegotiable part of his tax plan. >> we will dramatically cut the business tax rate so that american companies and workers can beat foreign competitors and start winning again. the president said he wanted to lower the business tax rate even further, but that the numbers really work at 20. meanwhile, he is waving the jones act to help order rico. it prevented foreign flagged ships from shuttling goods between ports. he was urged to suend the law so that desperately needed supplies could be delivered quickly and cheaply. the chief brexit negotiator says that it could take months before
talks move on to trade. they said they failed to deliver the break needed to progress to a post-brexit trade deal. the bank's says that independence has given it the tools to help deal with the financial crisis in brexit, but he said that doesn't make it a more powerful institution that can solve everything. the comments were made at a .onference in london global news, 24 hours per day, andred by 2700 journalists analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark? mark: a lot to discuss in the eurozone, facing the task of brexit talks, how are the banks assessing the shifting political landscape? joining us now for an exclusive interview, jpmorgan corporate
head of investment banking, vittorio grilli. thank you for joining us today. it would be wrote -- remiss of me not to dive into the big news of yesterday. mr. wolfgang schreiber, no longer the finance minister of germany. as the former italian finance minister, i'm show you know him well. what sort of hold as he leave? vittorio: i think you believe a of the being one longest serving finance ministers in the group and has clearly been a driver in the process of healing and building crisis.e after the big so, of course, it will be hard, but i'm sure that the new government will be very efficient in finding the super
valued substitute. mark: as you suggest, very big boots to fill. any inkling as to who might be best suited? i don't. no, of course, i think this will be one of the major items in the government'sf the foreign relation, so that's something we will have to see. the equilibrium will be found at the end. feel about do you central banks in europe and here in the u.s. and, more broadly, with roll on effects in countries where you do business, raising rates or tightening quantitatively. what are your concerns? well, we have been talking about this a lot. there are of course concerns
because both the stimulus has been unprecedent and, of engine was also unprecedented. however, the authority of the central bank has been guiding the market towards that moment as being very, very good, so problems will be linked to how the economy react for those who are less resilient than others in the monetary stance. to look at going yields, interest rates, what's going to happen to the sovereign bond market. all issues that, as i said, in a less resilient country, are there to be watched. us somecan you give
examples and perhaps an idea of where banking might suffer as a result of this? m&a investment banking, i don't see them as the primary institution suffering out of that area i think that to the country right now, the view of the market and our institutions is quite positive across the globe. it's been many years since we don't see such a positive economic outlook and all the average -- major areas of the world. america, europe, asia, all positive and getting bett. i think that is the driving consideration right now in evaluating how the market is going to perform. how probably the m&a world and transaction is going to develop and we have already seen a lot of activity and we don't see that, you know, stopping at all.
we see that there is a lot of interest for mna across the country. the big example right now here in milan, holding our annual italian conference, we have a 10% increase in investments coming down under 30 different kinds of investments from all over the world and showing a towards attitude finding out more about investment opportunities. mna, it's said that credit is known to have shown interest in acquiring commerce bank. us that the focus within the european banking landscape shifting from restructuring to consolidation? vittorio: many are taking care
of the big problems within the banking sector in europe, particularly in some countries. the feeling, now, that a lot of the work has been done, we should now look forward to the more constructive phase and of the european institution has been commenting recently about the need of consolidating in the creating ainess and real banking union in europe. i think we should look forward to that. we should also be aware that it's not going to be an easy transition. thel, i think that supervisory regulatory framework still needs to be clarified. that is still developing, something as well when you are talking about cross-country transactions, the ratio of how really can you make sure that there is synergy
driving these transactions that will be easily delivered. i think that that is the direction, but it is going to be not an easy path. mark: can we have just a quick question on brexit? given that we have come to the conclusion of the fourth round u.k. andbetween the eu, how much is the lack of progress within discussions between the two sides, how much nowern is that having right the banking community? vittorio: certainly there is concern, the right now as jpmorgan we are fully ready and prepared to serve our clients, whatever the circumstances are going to be in 2019 and forward. thinkk that everybody, i
the major institutions have taken the proper, proper decision to make sure of that. are sort ofe also relieved by this new sort of talk about transition. what now it's not clear exactly the transition will look know that when you move from a consolidated andation like the u.k. european union to one where there will not be any longer, that will take time to execute very us institutions of the proper plan. this sub transition, we think, is very important. vonnie: how are you preparing for the scenario in which janet yellen is no longer the federal reserve chair? vittorio: frankly, that is not
something that we, as a global bank, we are always preparing for all possible scenarios. i think that this is a , wesition that will have to will have to look when it ,appens and i think it is not this is not the moment now to discuss that. mark: thank you so much for joining us, vittor grilli. up, a pioneer in helping consumers cut the cord has made a public trading debut. the interview with the roku ceo, anthony would is still ahead. ♪
19%,s higher by don't forget, roku ceo anthony joining us in a few minutes. time for our stock of the hour, .v's are in this maker of motorhome and camper industries, strengthening today to a high after reporting earnings yesterday, oliver is here to discuss. have you sampled? oliver: i have not, but they are
fun. but this company is not fun, it's come under speculation as being one of the corporations that could benefit from the natural disasters we have had. this is basically a company that makes motor vehicles, motorhomes, homes on the move, basically, you can see why they would be a big use. fourth-quarter earnings per share from continued operations was $2.26. the highest estimate was 209. they just blasted through wall street positive locations and you are seeing this as a result of the eq rv function relative to valuation. clicking through the group dynamics, what we are looking at is the company was pretty cheap relative to peers in the industry. this is a company that when it reports well and you see those numbers come in, you look at a price that has gotten lower than the rest of the market in terms
of valuation and it's a good to buy. vonnie: and a great name. thank you, oliver. another stock mover of the hour, roku, shares are up almost 24%. the ceo, anthony wood, joining us in a few moments. republican lawmakers, meanwhile, coming together to come up with a tax rate mark after repeated failures to unite behind health care, but some are still skeptical about the road ahead for tax reform. kevin mccarthy brushed by doubts earlier. x you will see the first phase start next week. if you have a question about whether this will be done next year, start looking next week when we moved the budget. article one, section seven, says all tax reform starts in the house. ways and ahat
movement on the markup to move the bill out of the floor in congress this year. innie: for more, let's bring the republican congresswoman from tennessee, who happens to be the house budget committee chair. there.lack, you heard it it has been shunted aside to allow for tax reform. how do you feel about that? representative black: it's the golden key to unlocking tax reform, we will get reconciliation on that and i'm excited that we are moving forward, i'm ready for tax reform. your hopes forre the budget that may now have to be damped down a little bit to be -- in order to have success on tax reform? rep. black: we all knew that when we did the budget we were in hopes that we would have so thered replace,
will have to be adjustments within the conference committee. rep. black: the budget, every -- vonnie: the budget, everything you have been looking for, has been shunted down the road. but let's look at the actual tax reform part of things. you have said that you wished it to be deficit neutral. it doesn't look like it's going to beat. are you ok with that? rep. black: we are still having those discussions and we will continue to, but the main point is that we give true tax reform where the american people get relief. especially those in the lower and middle income levels, that's the most important thing we will do here. when we see the economy grow, and we hope it will grow, obviously, even more than what we anticipated would our own see the economy growing at 3%, 4%, 5%, that will be what's meaningful.
those are a lot of figures and projections you just threw in there. we are not even sure about that three-year representative. have you seen more details than we have? justblack: no, we are looking back over our shoulder in the reagan administration, where we saw tremendous growth there. we have used some conservative economists from around the country that helps us get to that point. we just looked back over our shoulder to tell you what happened in 1986, anticipating similar growth. vonnie: that's 30 years ago and it was a very different economy. senator corker has expressed some very strong, you know, skepticism about all of this,
saying that dynamic scoring is find to a degree but it has got to be valid. do you imagine that he will get on board? what will it take? rep. black: i haven't talked to her about his reservations, but we have use conservative economist and we again believe that it could be better than what we have. look at where we are now, the gdp this last quarter and we haven't even done anything with tax reform. think about what possibilities are when it gets implemented. the people ofll tennessee benefit from this specifically? right now the lowest rates move up. yes, standard eduction goes up as well, but where do you see more jobs being created and more money being spent on the economy
there? rep. black: actually, the lowest rate does not go up. i know that when we put out all the information, 12% was the bottom line, but we have another bracket in there that is zero. those at the very lowest end of or the taxe, bracket, will actually get a full break once we double that deduction and there is $24,000 now for the standard eduction, you will see that the lowest income will be in the zero bracket and perhaps we need to put that out there so that we can make sure people understand. couple, we i married should point out that is who that is for, but given that point, that's true, there is a you see jobse do being created with more money going into the tennessee economy as a result of this agenda? will bring that corporate rate down to 20% and we will see competitiveness across the world now with our
corporations, because we are the highest corporate tax in the entire oecd. we will be giving relief to small businesses to bring that down to 25%. it is all the way across the line, from the corporations to the small businesses and individuals we are giving the tax break to. have you in particular asked for anything for your vote? rep. black: i'm pleased with where we are on the tax-writing committee. we still have work to do. remember, this is a framework, not the final product, but i'm pleased with where we are in pleased that we are making ourselves competitive around the world and that we are giving relief to families, making for a fair, flat, implored vonnie: code. vonnie:you have said you are running for governor. now that corker will not be rerunning for the senate, any chance you change her mind and run for his senate seat? ma'am, i'm still
going to be running for governor and i look forward to being the executive of the great state of tennessee. vonnie: thank you for your time. rep. black: thank you. vonnie: tomorrow we will have an exclusive half-hour interview with jack lew, former u.s. treasury secretary. mark: roku shares have begun trading after its $200 million ipo. the streaming pioneer, cutting into the shares of cable giants. we are sending it over now to our ipo reporter, alex, in san francisco, standing by with a very special guest. right, i'm here, joined now by the ceo of roque two, anthony would. in new york is shares have just started trading. have $219 million of fresh, dried powder for you here. what do you plan on doing with that money?
anthony: this ithe right time for us to become a public company. the business model has transitioned from hardware to our platform business, selling advertisements and distributing content. it's just, you know, we're just usingg forward to flexibility and increasing our balance sheet. we don't have specific plans. businessink of roku's -- >> when i think of roku's thenesses, i think of devices, but you say you are pushing further into ads. why go that route? is it because selling hardware is so tough these days? >> the model as the company has been to build up being the leading streaming company. we have 15 million active accounts. licensing to build the scale and
monitoring -- monetizing that platform. always have. >> they were pushing further into the home with apple and google on its tales. can you own the content watching if you're not elsewhere in the home? how do you keep the number one slot? anthony: we have been competing successfully for a long time. 20% of all smart tv's sold in the first half of this year were roku tv's. our device system is the number one in the united states. know, year over year. we have been competing for a long time and we are just point to keep doing what we are doing. you are not doing anything differently even though the giants are pushing in, but
one thing that's different is that you are now a public company. why would this be time for roku to finally get public. we are having very successful platform businesses and it seemed like the right time to go public. >> focusing on the streaming services, where do you see the eyeballs? fastest the fastly -- growing supporis ad supported content. terms one top search our website is free. we are transitioning from mainstream, linear television to over the top and as consumers move viewing to over the top, they want a few services like and hulu, but they also want free ad supported content.
>> i hear you, anthony. thank you for joining us from the nasdaq. market? , thanks forarinka coming on. coming up, following stocks, less than 35 minutes away from end of the thursday session. yes, it is thursday. best run, by the way, since april. vonnie: i just want to point out that a new representative is walking into the chamber, -- is walking into the chamber after being shot over the summer. there were very little updates, but he has survived to come back onto the floor today. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: top stories we're covering from the bloomberg and around the world. wrecks of talks largely stuck -- brexit talks largely stuck in the mud, not so optimistic in brussels. >> we are far from being at a stage, and it will take weeks or maybe months, to say, yes, there has been sufficient progress on the principles of this orderly withdrawal to mark: will the stalemate caused prime minister may her job? in the u.s., economist weighing in on the president type plan, some calling it a short-term sugar high, will be tax cuts deliver more long-term benefits to the economy?