tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg December 19, 2017 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
. story.. the tax overhaul means three decades boat is this hour. can democrats do anything to slow the process? friday is fast approaching and the threat of a government shutdown is becoming more of eight reality as the house and senate struggle to reach a deal before the deadline. we will speak with ranking member john yarmouth in moments. protecting the palace. a coalition thwarted a ballistic missile fired by a around by yemeni rebels earlier today. the latest from that region this hour. ♪ shery: losing ground ahead of the tax vote. let's get the latest from julie
hyman. we have seen rallying in recent days in stock markets in anticipation of the taxable area now that it is here, we are seeing a pause in the upward momentum with the nasdaq losing the most. also, conventional wisdom is that some of the tech giants have less to gain from a corporate tax cut then do some of the more domestically oriented counterparts. something else we have been watching over time has been the beent of time that it has in between 5% pullbacks in the s&p 500. we are on a long stretch, 282 days without a pullback. one of the implications is that you don't have the dip phenomenon because the dips aren't very steep. if you are looking for value in the market or to buy on discounts, those discounts are not happening or they are happening to a smaller degree and more rarely. back to today, there have been a
number of large cap analyst calls today. let's run through them quickly. apple getting a rare downgrade in today's session. it was a downgrade to neutral. the analysts believe much of the good news is placed into the stock. we are watching walmart during that god an upgrade. the analyst says the e-commerce business is providing a case that you can see brick and mortar competition to the likes of amazon, or at least an alternative from brick-and-mortar to amazon. gender mortars to out -- general motors to outperform. the guidance for next year should be consensus. finally, a tobacco giant being upgraded. this has partially to do with taxes that this company will get tax savings as a part of the bill. there is also m and a activity today. we have kindred healthcare caring itself -- selling itself
to humana and a duo of partners. dollars pery nine share. they will split it up with humana getting 40%. kindred shares are down 5% because they were trading above the offer price very apollo is going to buy good obama -- kudo qdoba. david: house republicans are voting on the tax bill and about 20 minutes from now. it is expected to sail through the house, largely on party lines. it woodhead to the senate where it -- it would head to the senate, where it is also expected to pass. expressed her support. >> this legislation will provide tax information -- increases to
fan -- tax cuts to family and increased jobs right here in america and spur economic growth that will benefit all americans. david: joining us now with the latest is scipio -- see okafor kapur.il cup do they have a shot at derailing? sahil: they have been trying to chip away at certain pieces of the legislations. they are strictly looking at the bird rule. it has to be directly related to taxes and spending. they haven't managed to knock out some provisions from legislation, including language that would potentially threaten legal abortion in the long-term that republicans try to add to the bill by giving a tax break for unborn children. shery: in the house bill, not
every republican is expected to vote for the bill, especially those from high-tech states. republicansuse voted no. i believe 12 of them were for new york comic new jersey, and california -- new york, new jersey, and california. exact numberw the of house republicans who will vote no. they can afford to lose 20 or 20 two member spirit we count about 10 house republicans who are officially know at this point -- members. we count about 10 house republicans who are officially a at this time. david: another thing happening is the possible shutdown of the government over the weekend. where does that stand? sahil: negotiations are continuing as to what will be in the bill. they are still wrangling for those who want to increase defense spending on the republican side and democrats say any increase is to be paired
programs.tic spending those conversations are still going. there are some democrats who want to vote against it unless it includes codifying of daca that president trump has canceled. there are still in number of balls in the air. there is still the health-care bill that susan collins wanted as part of her support for the tax bill that are likely to come up in the senate. the house is still chilly to them. republicans that control both chambers of congress and the white house, is there any chance that a government shutdown will happen, and what are the next steps to prevent that? there is a chance. if there is a shutdown, it will be the first time in modern era of budging that the party that controls the white house, the house, and the senate would shut down its own government. this would be an extraordinary thing.
they need to get to 18 votes in the house, which they can do with republicans. they also need 16 votes in the senate. they would need to get democrats on board. the democrats will not get everything they want. they will meet some priorities in the bill. david: sahil cup or from capital kapur from capitol hill. shery: who knows will happen at 1:30 if it will happen on time. we will wait and see. we are expecting it anytime now. there is little doubt at the moment that the tax proposal will make its way to the president. with democrats in congress left out of it. representative john yarmouth of kentucky is one of the democrats on the sidelines. he is also the ranking member on the house budget committee. he has called the plan run to
its corporate he joins us now from capitol hill. congressman, thank you so much for your time. the houseboat is happening and the senate vote could happen, is there anything the democrats can do? really, except making the case that this is a misguided piece of legislation that is being rushed through in an attempt to give it a secret from the american people and to make sure they can pay back donors. the idea that this has been put through in one month's time, it will go into affect in two weeks after it is passed. their own admission, there are things in there that will need to be corrected. chaotic absolute situation. this is a self-imposed deadline. there is no need to rush this thing through. there are 1100 pages and no one knows the impact it will have on the american people or american
corporations. we know it will be positive for corporations, but to me, it is a tragic moment in the history of congress for this to be rushed through. david: there is no question this has been a hurried piece of legislation as legislation goes. take us back to constituents. come the fall come what will happen that will cause them to say this is a mistake, or will it they say it cannot better than they thought? some some people will seal positive impact. they will get $20 a week added to their paycheck. i don't believe that will really convince people that this was an appropriate thing to do or beneficial. my constituents are overwhelmingly opposed to it. more importantly, i have not received one piece of input and support of the bill from any of and i cannoto
figure out who wants this, except republicans who think they need a political win and it want to pay back people who donate to their campaign. shery: another battle opening over federal spending between republicans and democrats. the battle seems to be framed between descendents and -- defense and nondefense spending. how can they get beyond that? john: it is important that we get past it. you have to remember we have had almost three months since we passed a continued resolution to get this point to negotiate. republicans have not engaged with democrats in trying to come to an agreement. here we are three days before the government would shut down, and we have not had a significant negotiation. i heard the last report from sahil. the republicans need democrats
to pass measures in both the house and senate. they have a funny way of showing it because they have not engaged and would not say what it would take for us to give them both. david: it is not to early to move onto the next potential battle, whether we will keep the government are you committed to keeping the government open or shutting it down on principle? john: first of all, we don't have a say in that. republicans control both the health -- house and senate and president. if it shuts down, it will be because they shut it down. we stand committed to negotiating as to what we need to continue to fund the government. we will not sit here and say because you are willing to shut the government down because you don't want to consider our priorities that we will forget our priorities and sit on our hands. have someere we do
leverage. this is the way it has been for the last seven or eight years where the republicans have negotiated with us to give the government open because they need to votes. shery: congressman, thank you so much for your time. congressman john yarmouth from kentucky and ranking member. david: how will the tax overhaul affect business? how will it change behavior? we'll talk to carolyn harris purchase chief tech council. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: to get to the passage of ryan isrm, paul praising his colleagues. he told reporters that in 2016, the republican majority in congress laid out and articulated a visit to help -- vision doubt help to get the country on track. >> we spend all of our time together. here is what it will take to get america back on its feet and what -- help people who are struggling. this will help get true growth and hit our potential. we are doing it today. voteark: the speaker said the is taking place later this hour. the associated press reports that the head of the environmental action agency used public money to have his office swept for it listening devices and bought sophisticated
biometric locks for additional security. the items are among a string of counter surveillance cautions -- precautions taken by the administrator, who requires around-the-clock reduction by an armed security team. the inspector general is already investigating the 25,000 dollar purchase of custom-made soundproof privacy booth for his office to deter eavesdropping on his phone calls. honduran president is calling on the country's leaders to help bring peace to the nation following disputed reelection. opposition supporters took to the streets to protest the election results. demonstrators have reportedly been killed in confrontation with police. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. crumpton. this is bloomberg. the tax bill a couple she
is a lot of what corporate america has wanted, lower tax capital investment. we welcome one of those who has advocated for such changes. she is carolyn harris. she joins us from washington. welcome back. you look to please the last time we talked, you must be happy now. last time we talked, it was about corporate minimum tax that got repealed. is there anything in this bill against what you wanted? caroline: we are talking about reduced rates for businesses and globally consistent system. that hit a home run. on the individual side, you are talking about more money back in the pockets of the american people. across the board, this is a home run. isry: the 21% deduction similar to the senate, it is smaller than 23%?
is it a win? caroline: if they reduce the marginal rate, at the end of the day the numbers will be similar. david: some of these things will phase out what is the possibility? does it give your member some pause because they like to plan for longer than five years? caroline: the corporate rate is permanent. the territorial system is permanent. those are things we knew had to be permanent to get impact. we understood we were working within revenue confines. choices had to be made. they made the choices that allowed growth impact. shery: deregulation is a big part of the white house's plan x cuts with republicans could we have found at bloomberg news the regulation that has been repealed has been pending regulation. how satisfied are you with the
pace of deregulation under president trump? caroline: we have seen positive movement. out anthe president but executive order encouraging treasury to look at regulations. they have indicated they will act on eight or nine of them. we saw them withdraw damaging minorities valuation. will advocate for that. david: it appears that you are going to succeed what you wanted in the congress. on quickly to the american people, we just heard speaker ryan that this is not the most popular thing in the world. the republicans will pay a heavy price, which could hurt you at the chamber if people don't believe they are better off. he said was we will see results. we saw the gdp come out and indicate that every tax break it will see more money back in their pockets.
as we move forward, people work positivehis is more than people give it credit for. positive than people give it credit for. shery: the u.s. chamber of congress has been vocally opposed to scott garrett as chairman of the export, import bank. your reaction? caroline: we look forward to looking at other qualified candidates. up for you on a priority on the hill? is it for infrastructure? resident and republican party campaigned on a bold infrastructure plan. we are ready to hit the ground running on the progrowth policy and we should actively pursue it. david: thank you very much caroline harris. she is u.s. chamber of congress chief tax counsel and vice president of tax policy. shery: the third missile in the south that they have intercepted. it could bring more confrontation. that story is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." me david. -- i'm david westin. and i'm shery ahn. the iranian backed militants were targeting a meeting at a palace. saudi officials were expected to approve the budget. this is the third missile the saudi's have intercepted in two months. we are joined by phone from divide. this missile attack was aimed at heart of theery saudis. how serious is this develop it? messageope is sending a
to the saudis that they can hit them where ever they want to. they are also threatening the oil installations if they so desired. they want to get into a tip for chat with the saudis. as long as they are bombing yemen, they're threatening to strike. the saudi's are reacting by pointing out that this explains why they are even after them in yemen because to them, it is evidence of involvement and the danger that was bring in yemen before. you. this has been a dispute that has been associated with the crown prince of -- it david: this has been a dispute that has been associated with the crown prince of saudi. it doesn't seem to be going well for the saudi's. started,t first officials were saying they expect this to take a wild. they were talking about x months.
we are now in the third year -- six months. we are now in the third year. it is not going well. the president said he is going to talk to the saudi's about a solution. so far, it is not going saudi arabia's way. it is not good for anybody. yemen is split down the middle and the yemeni people are suffering. shery: saudi arabia unveiling its 2018 budget. it seemed to focus on economic growth rather than just focusing on belt tightening. that's right. after almost two years which has , normallymic growth when it slows down you expect the government to open and spend more to get growth going.
they were trying to get the spending under control. now they are saying, first of all we know that it hasn't recovered. they're also saying they are getting more revenue into their because they feel like they have there is aing room significant increase in government spending. fory: thank you so much joining us. the executive editor for middle east. david: catalonia is having elections. will they clear anything? we go to catalonia next. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
an amtrak train was speeding before yesterday's failed derailment. according to the data recorder, it was going 80 miles per hour in a 30 mile brouwer zone. at least three people were killed and more than 70 hospitalized -- miles per hour zone. the train was making its first run along a faster, new route between seattle and portland. a nebraska commission approved the key sign pipeline is declining requests to change its decision. a nebraska public service commission denied motions today by pipeline developers transcanada and leaving opponents to the project. opponents say the commission overstepped its jurisdiction and denied due process to effective land owners when it made its decision. the saudi led military coalition that is fighting rebels in it yemen says it intercepted a missile over the city of riyadh. a explosion was heard in the smokend a column of white
was seen. rebels said they fired a missile at a palace in the saudi capital. south african media reports that oster's stories is repealing his recently lengthened prison -- oscar pistorius is repealing his recently lengthened prison sentence for killing his girlfriend. they doubled his sentence to 13 years, calling the initial six-year sentence shockingly lenient. the earliest he will be eligible for parole is 2023. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: spain is bracing for catalonia's elections this thursday, the first since it's failed attempt. the prime minister hoped to get some sort of clarity by calling election. he may be disappointed. a blackout period starting last saturday means we don't have up-to-date polls.
the last ones we have show a close race with a narrow advantage for the three parties that continue to push for independence. we are joined in barcelona. maria, welcome. give us what you and report. maria: it looks very tight. it really does look like it will be very tight. there were about the campaign in barcelona. the message is clear, you need to vote. the issue for the parties that want to remain in spain is that if they do win the election it would be good to form a government. they could head into a of long negotiations. the pro-independence parties who want to break away from spain could get the majority or we get
a party that can't work and that means another election and at another site goal of catalonia. ifry: what happens separatists clear another majority? could we see talks with the government? that is the big question. a lot of them are hinting that this idea of unilateral independence sibley cannot happen or can't -- simply cannot happen or can't happen the way they want. in october with the tension, the european union cited with them and said it will simply not work. we are seeing scaling back and it may be a different solution in a unilateral way, but there should definitely be in discussions with madrid. madrid said referendum can't happen. the constitution will not allow it. they are betting a record turnout will reset the politics.
david: back in october, the face of separatism was there and where are they now? been an unusual campaign. a lot of the candidates who were running in the election have been to prison or are still in prison. it has been an unusual election. the people talk about whether the former catalonian president might make a return. if he wins on thursday, he says he will come back to spain. that would be a nightmare scenario for the opponent. can you make a comeback? situation for him is difficult. the minute he steps into spain, he will be arrested.
it all comes down to how much of a risky is going to take before the elections. shery: given the uncertainty over the vote and how tight the race is, when it comes to the prime minister, is there still chaos in catalonia and is that better than organized rebellion against the spanish government? is that heproblem has a minority government in isrid and in catalonia, this an economic powerhouse for spain. it is difficult to keep hold of what is going on in madrid and in barcelona. he wants a solution. to his has to respond base. they did not want a referendum, and that is something he can't avoid. he is hoping on thursday that there would be a reset of catalonian politics. that is a big? keep inwe also need to
mind that he needs to approve a budget. he can't approve this if he can't get the vote from regional parties. if the situation in catalonia doesn't get solved, he doesn't get the votes. it is a? of how far can he survive? david: how are the markets reacting? our banks moving out of barcelona? is any reaction? banks, as you remember, basically left the region. they said they don't want to get into politics in the main responsibility is to send a clear message that no matter what happens, they are still andg to be a spanish bank one that is banked by the european central bank. what we hear is that it is a big miss -- mess and the economy has taken a hit. if you follow the economy, it is usually the opposite of
catalonia. the business community is asking for a period of stability, and they don't want go back to october. tourism figures drop in unemployment went up. it was not a pretty situation for the business people. david: thank you so much. shery: coming up, the first of president trump's nominees not to make it out of committee. the senate banking committee voted to reject scott garrett as the new chair of the import export bank or will get reaction of the man who chaired it under president obama. this is bloomberg. ♪
house of representative's. we are waiting for the vote. they are little behind -- are a little behind time for voting for the tax ill. this is the final vote. we will bring that life as it occurs. now for our "stock of the hour." community health trending lower. .his due to tax reform joining us to discuss it is abigail doolittle. what is the problem? abby: a hospital company came out and lowered numbers for 2018 and gave the first glimpse. it is above consensus. shares are trading higher. they talk about is the tax overhaul bill goes through in the current form, it will likely cause them to bring numbers down because of the issue around the deductibility and limitations on the deductibility of expense. that could really hurt. yesterday we had j.p. morgan saying that relative to net operating losses that community
them, does not disclose but they estimate they are arend $500 million and likely to be exhausted by december 2019 or sooner. not a very good prospect perhaps for the companies. we are seeing a dip. david: we argue corporations will benefit, maybe not all. abby: maybe not all. david: there may be some that do better. abby: some that may do better are those that are highly taxed. , allare trading higher beauty, cbs health. not related, but all within the goldman sachs high tax index. that happened it was interesting, if you look at this in the bloomberg, it is a roughly more than one year chart of the index. around the index it was even.
after president trump was elected on the possibility of tax overall would happen, high tax outperform in the s&p. then there was a dip in uncertainty, and now going back above election levels. the irony is, look at the fact that this index of the s&p 500 is well below it had actually been right after the election. i am not sure what that is on the part of investors. never a dull day. shery: especially with the vote coming up any now. abigail doolittle, thank you. david: will go to a different part of ec. president trump has complained repeatedly about lack of support for his nominees. republicans have given him as much trouble on the democrats with the banking. rejected hist nominee, scott garrett. he was going to lead corporate welfare and was trying to close
it down when he was in congress. when his nomination came to a vote, two republican senators joined with the democrats to defeat him. , who served as the chairman of the export-import bank under obama is joining us from miami. good to have you back. for most americans, why would you nominate someone who specifically tried to shut down the institution that you want to try to lead? what happened here? fred: it is baffling. president trump has repeatedly nominated people, whether it is acting head mick mulvaney to run the consumer bureau, scott pruitt, scott garrett, even rick perry. this is really good job of congress and the senate. today, the senate did their job. sendsaid president trump them five nominees and when it specter general we approved. nominees and one inspector
on a bipartisan. the committee rejected one member who was not interested in doing the job. actually beginning to work in this case. shery: it is still no head for the export-import bank. how functional is the bank right now? fred: if leader mcconnell goes forward, the four nominees and the inspector general could get a vote this week, and the bank would have a quorum and could continue working right now. it is estimated there are $37 billion in the pipeline and eight to $10 million of transactions ready to go within four to six weeks. if they choose to act, and it is up to leader mcconnell, the bank can get that to work within days. david: this is one of the puzzles. the president has made it a top priority for trade and particularly adjusting the trade deficit. the export-import bank as you
have pointed out has been a big supporter of exports. why doesn't the president like it, or does he? fred: i think the president does. when he talks about america first, he wants jobs and exporting, equipment, satellites, airplanes, and small businesses. i think you're may be some disagreement within the white house and it is not always well served by the people who advised the president put scott garrett as chairman to begin with. the president is leaning in the right direction, but may have gotten bad advice. shery: scott garrett is a founding member of the tea party and the free party caucus. this just shows the division in the gop. how'd you expect this to affect other nominations that president trump -- how do you expect this to affect other nominations that president trump hopes to get elected?
fred: starting with the ranking member and others who has said he had a vote. there was a real vote. sometimes the senate doesn't like to vote. the committee voted down the one nominee. hopefully that sends us a message to send us people who will do the job and we will do it. if you send us people who are not interested in the job, the senate will reject it. it is up to senate and congress to decide what the mandate and the work of the agency should do. and someone who wants to destroy it within is not the work of the executive branch. if the executive -- the senate wants to clip the wings, that is up to them. david: this is not a surprise. do they have someone waiting in the wings? is there a primary candidate? fred: they could take one of the republican nominees, the vice chair, and renominate them as chairman, and that would solve
the problem. let me be clear. the bank can operate with four board members. the vice chair would become the active head of the agency. go back could -- bank could back to fully operating if mitch mcconnell and the senate choose to have a vote this week. it is ready to go all it needs is three and we have four nominees that have all been approved by a nonpartisan committee. what: for the viewers, difference does it make a numeral real-world? what are we losing as a country by not having the bank of and running effectively? fred: there are about 90 export banks around the world, germany, france, britain, korea, china, all have export banks. they are financing their country's exports and crowding out u.s. exporters. they are not on a level playing field. the estimates are there are about eight to $10 billion worth of transactions ready to go.
support 50,000 to 60,000 jobs and small businesses. we have a lot of jobs at stake. these are high-paying jobs. these are jobs frequently in manufacturing and service injuries -- industries that are high-paying and are being held back in the export bank. it is baffling. it hurts wage growth and balance of trade. david: thank you for so much -- thank you so much for joining us. fred hochman, the president of the import-export bank under president obama. you are looking at live pictures of the house floor where the tax overhaul vote will begin shortly. it is 18 minutes behind schedule. that is speaker paul ryan giving a speech. they should start the boat right after he is done. vote rightpens, -- after he is done. when it happens, we will bring
♪ shery: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." i'm shery ahn. david: and i'm david westin. we are waiting on the house tax vote. we are watching speaker paul ryan getting an impassioned speech. you have to think he is preaching more to the u.s. audience than the people in the chamber. let's go to kevin cirilli, the chief washington correspondent. and we are also joined by marty schenker. give us a sense of what is going on in the chamber. kevin: not much drama. republicans feel they have enough votes to get this done. representatives police just sent
out the alert to members that the vote -- representatives scalise just sent out the alert to members that the boat is going to start. shery: how close is it to what president trump wanted? marty: he wanted a lower corporate rate, he got that. not as low as the 50% he wanted, but ultimately he will have a legislative victory of significance. you can't take that away from him. this is a monumental achievement. it was given a 50-50 chance a month ago, and it is about to happen. we want to go back to kevin cirilli who is there with a representative, who is a hawkish deficit guy. congressman, you are concerned about the deficit. what to say to folks who are concerned that this will grow the debt? >> if you look at the effect of
the tax bill, will it pay for itself? you can go either way. if you ask the realistic question is emma will the economy and economic growth that comes from the agenda pay for it -- is, will the economic and economy growth that comes from agenda pay for? we are looking at 4% growth according to the fed next quarter. i think it is looking good. you, a polle ask just cannot within the last hour that says that 47% of americans think taxes will go up under this plan. party can'tlican sell is, how bad will it be? >> we need to do a better job. nancy pelosi gets more time. we need to do a better job. once you see the check and
february and you see the economic growth at 4% next quarter, the evidence will be in. evidence.verwhelming if two senators sneeze the wrong way, what happens to the stock market? it goes down. after they vote, it is baked in the cake. the same in the mainstream media that don't do financial channels, they said when elected, themp was market would tank. it hasn't. about thewant to talk continuing resolution. it is funded through january 20. i am hearing republicans are divided on csr's and not so much disaster relief funding. will the government shutdown january 21? rcro, we have to first to tomorrow. no shutdown. we will send a cr from the house which will include disaster funding. doesig question is, which
the senate at on? the csr is probably a no vote. do they knocked down military spending? it depends if they pump up social spending. daca is in it. you have a three party system and that blows up the whole system. kevin: never a dull moment here in washington, d.c. we will leave it there, congressman. back to new york. isid: marty, after this done, you first try to sell it to the american people or do you move on to things like infrastructure? marty: i think you absolutely move on to infrastructure. this will be a difficult sell. as many have pointed out, the previous tax cut and most bill income people didn't even think they got a cut. the polls show that half of the american people thinks their taxes will go up. it will be a very difficult thing to sell. is veryinfrastructure
accessible. how they do it is another question. shery: how about welfare reform? marty: paul ryan says he wants to move on to that kind of reform next year. i would say good luck with that. that is a third rail totally. shery: marty schenker, bloomberg's chief accountant. we will bring you the house tax vote life. you are looking at house speaker paul ryan right now care we are expecting the vote to happen any time -- -- live a. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: the u.s. house of representatives about to vote, able vote in the senate expected to come later today. the latest, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. not expecting a hick ups as far as this is concerned. what about when it gets to the senate? >> it is going to clear the senate. susan collins came out in support. it clinched senate approval. i was six years old in the last tax reform three decades ago. >> what about nitpicking from the democrats. that is a possibility. >> republicans feel they have enough votes. we have been carefully monitoring this