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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  December 20, 2017 2:00pm-3:30pm EST

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scarlet: we are live in new york over the next hour. here are the top stories we are covering from around the world and on the bloomberg. for the gop, lawmakers passing the most extensive rewrite of the tax code in decades, handing president trump his first major policy victory. we will discuss the impact of this new legislation on the commercial real estate industry with jason kearns. less, more of our exclusive interview with the new mexico central bank governor. that's just ahead. we have got you as the markets close in two hours. julie hyman is here to look at s&p.ounds we have in the julie: this is as a result of the run-up that we have been seeing and stocks coming into this tax bill. now that it is done and dusted, so to speak, we are not seeing much reaction whatsoever.
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just a drift now. this is not unusual, going into the end of the year, to see more sideways movement. when we are looking at heist tech stocks or low tech stocks, here's a look at the high tax and low tax index. you do see a gaffe -- a gap between them. it began this week when it was clear that the bill was going to pass. again, the lift and then the sideways movement, more or less, even for both of those divisions that we have been watching. wanted to look at some individual groups as well. fedex came out with earnings after the close and the company said that they would soon record deliveries this holiday season. they also talked about taxes and in a key fashion they raised their forecast but said that the earnings would be even higher as a result of tax cuts. not just the overall corporate but other measures to benefit the company. we are seeing a strengthening of
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other companies as well. this group pays the highest effective tax rate. particularly the railroads and domestically oriented companies, they are seen as benefiting more from the tax-cut as other groups. the sector with the second-highest affected tax rate , energy companies, those companies are rallying today in the session. helped as well by oil prices above 58 dollars per barrel. we got the weekly inventory and of 6.5 million barrels. the overall drawdown was the largest we have seen in four years. that definitely giving a boost to oil prices and then you see the energy stocks that are outperforming today in the session. thank you very much. let's get the check on the first word news with mark crumpton. trumppresident train -- claims what he calls a historic victory following the republican
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tax bill. he told reporters that thanks to mcconnell,nd mitch the legislation was done before christmas. mr. trump said that the tax bill essentially repeals obamacare by eliminating a tax penalty for americans who don't carry health insurance. the number of iraqi civilians killed in the fight to drive the islamic state out of most all was 10 times higher than originally reported. that's according to the associated press, which said that as many as 11,000 civilians died in the fighting. i human rights watchdog says that 92 people were killed during the months of election turmoil in kenya. a new root -- new election report on the commission for human rights says dozens of others were assaulted. the position leader accused the kenyan security forces of killing scores of supporters. the president there one that election with 98% of the vote.
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theresa may is being questioned about the latest european your -- european union move on brexit. says that theer transition will end on december 31, 2020. he says that there will not be an a la carte transition. the u.k. wants a two-year transition after leaving in 2019 and the before and knew trading deal takes effect. global news, 24 hours per day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. julia? scarlet: now to washington, as mark said, lawmakers have wrapped up a massive tax package for donald trump. he said "i promised the american people a big, beautiful tax cut for christmas and with final passage of this legislation, that is what they are getting. i would like to thank the members of congress who bill,ted this historic
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representing an extraordinary victory for american families, workers, and businesses. we have more from capitol hill. -- theblem, so he'll problem is that voters don't seem to be getting the memo here. these comments were interesting. are dumbfounded by the unpopularity of the bill. is this a communication problem on their side? or a lack of understanding from voters? it's a real problem that republicans have. polls show that this bill is widely unpopular, some by as much as a two to one margin. let's not understate the significance of this achievement. after one year of republicans getting very little done, they have now done a variety of things to salvage the year. the obamacare individual mandate is gone. taxes will be cut. and mark will be opened up to
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oil drilling. neil gorsuch is on the supreme court. appellate judges have been confirmed. and they have killed a lot of regulations. republicans can now go home for the holidays knowing that they have salvaged the year. julia: in the meantime cannot gary cohn saying that he is taking some of the blame, that he clearly did not inner -- communicate well. something else that he theioned, the president and oval office for unsuccessfully to strip a provision that mostly benefited wealthy investors. we are talking about the carried interest loophole. what did we learn? sahil: contrary to the promises of the candidate, it stays there. the holding for assets to qualify goes from one year to three years in the bill. one thing that you just mentioned about the middle income earners, they do get a tax cut.
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it's true that this tax bill will lower taxes for earners up and down the income spectrum, but the largest deficit go to corporations. there is a corporate tax cut that has been made permanent. the individuals are temporary, done to apply -- comply with the senate byrd rule. it goes back to the daunting sales and pr job that republicans have on their hands between now and 2018. the bill that will help them, i spoke to one prominent republican who said that if it works the way we say it well, we will be fine. if not, we're in trouble. scarlet: i do think that this very much ties to the pr exercise and gary cohn saying that look, they were successful, they tried 25 times to hold this out, but my understanding is that you now have to hold the assets to three years, not one year. are there many hedge funds out
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there that hold assets for three years? it does seem to have an impacted by these rules. jonathan: i don't think any voters are shedding tears for the hedge fund managers who are impacted slightly by the change. i think it would have been a symbolic victory, tangible for president to claim a populist provision that he can sell directly to voters. but that did not happen. they are relying on the standard deduction and increase in child tax credit as the major piece of middle income tax benefits. there will be republicans in high tax local states that will be facing unhappy constituents with swing districts, districts that democrats are very eager to target. where they are favored to take back a number of seats. we started scarlet: the week knowing that it would be critical for the white house.
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that congresse needs to deal with, now, funding the government to make sure it doesn't shut down. where are we on that effort? sahil: there are a series of hangups between now and congress passing a government funding measure. including an extension of the children's health insurance program, parameters around that. flood insurance, democrats are holding out for a fix for dreamers. that president trump canceled, they want it codified. many democrats are insisting on parity in any increase on defense spending. there is a lot that needs to be done. along with this, to health care stabilization measures that susan collins demanded as a part of the tax vote. she he did that that probably won't happen this year. we are looking at a situation where it might get kicked to january 19, extending the status quo, return early next year and figure the rest of it out.
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julia: makes sense. figuring it out, they do a lot of that. trump'sed for president remarks, live from the white house. that is at 3 p.m. eastern town. bringing you back to the idea of carried interest, if you want to fight a pr war, why fixate on the things you didn't do? or the things you didn't to if you did do. being honest, he's and perhaps is not wise in the way of how washington works. answering as honestly as he could. maybe. coming up, the mexico central bank governor defenses strict stance on interest rates. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ julia: this is "bloomberg markets." scarlet: time for the bloomberg business flash with a look at the biggest stories in news right now. chipotle, suffering its worst decline in a month following a report of another possible illness outbreak in los angeles. chipotle says they are aware of on userof sickness generated websites, but none to health officials. this is the latest crisis to hit the burrito chain. before the decline the shares a dropped 17% this year. the bank of england does not consider bitcoin an issue in the u.k.. mark curry spoke during the treasury select committee hearing. connected inis not general, it's not levered.
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it is orders of magnitude less than past the market cap. it is in that order of magnitude with the cryptocurrencies. it's more like an equity type risk spread around the world. -- scarlet: nova lifestyle, a market cap home furniture company jumped from 42% in premarket trading after it owned block change technology. since theyup 132% reported that they would accelerate the use of blockchain technology. that is your business flash update. julia: mexico, facing a challenging 2018. earlier on bloomberg, the new mexican central bank governor sat down for an exclusive
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interview, reinforcing the banks policyhten monetary stances. >> in this case we have to be clear about how we communicate going forward. see inflation converging by the end of next year. conditional on several things. it seems we are facing so many factors of uncertainty. inadditional supply shocks the non-core component. also noting the absence of pressures from labor markets. they react to lowered corporate rates in the u.s.? >> there are two variables. one, that i now xm financial markets. in the last days we have seen adjustments in long-term u.s. rates and in currencies
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throughout the world. that is one part of the adjustment. the other is how to make and to retain flows in mexico. that is a challenge to the rest of the world. not only mexico. i would say that they react to several factors, not only one factor. we need to be mindful of that and try to improve our competitive factors. >> what can be done to improve competitiveness? >> i'm sure that they will -- that they have already thought about this. in the rest of the elements i think we need to try to make costs and productivity and labor productivity gains more material. which is basically have a forceer -- stronger scale and improve the security and rule of law for the elements
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that work in these competitive elements and in the formula. that would be very helpful. >> what about coding corporate taxes? you think the next administration will have this on the table and ready to send to congress? >> it's too early to tell. we need to take a full evaluation of the whole competitive this of the economy and try to work on several fronts. this is not one single variable that needs to be matched up. need to be considering other options and other variables. >> the mexican central bank has used clues to try to control the volatility of the currency. do you expect that they will use different or new tools ahead of 2018, given all the factors that you mentioned that can have an impact?
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>> we think that the toolkit we have at hand is a good one. given what was introduced early this year, we have a full range of instruments that can be used with volume in the fx market. want to lean against the wind and a real exchange when that is needed. but we are also mindful to have orderly conditions in the market . that is precisely when and why we have those instruments. julia: that was mexico's new central bank governor. ahead, the smart beta etf report is not just the bitcoin. we look at the race to issue the first marijuana related etf in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ julia: it's time for our smart data etf report in the race to launch the first marijuana-based etf in the u.s., overshadowed by the bitcoin battle, has drawn a handful to the sector. here to discuss is our etf analyst, eric balchunas. eric: there are a lot of things you can do with this. the pot etf race is no joke. there are six filed hoping to be the first one out. my colleague, can shea, who covers the pot industry, he's a saying that the sales of cannabis could grow to 25 alien over the next 10 years. it's legal in many more states recreationally. we have some of the etf's file here. the alternative harvest, a lot of them don't use pot, they use
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more classy names. we've got the cambria marijuana industry with the agriculture etf. and then the marijuana supply chain etf. pot is also up tremendously. i like coke as the ticker. eric: tickers with verbs usually do better, so that's good for them there. could be a $1 billion product. how manywonder companies are publicly traded that are involved in the growing marijuana industry. good question. when you put together a new budding industry, if you will, you will have to put in more liquid names to offset the fact that some of these are micro caps. but there's one in canada that has some big companies and some small ones. let's put it up right
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now. there we go. jonathan: this is why i think this -- eric: this is why i think it will be a big deal in the u.s.. it's up something like 70% this year. if it were not for bitcoin, this would be a bigger story. see how the assets hung in there, even when it fell? this is a high demand, sticky asset. that market in canada, probably 1/10 of the size in the u.s. -- of the size as it would be in the u.s., this is an interesting undercard to the more famous bitcoin etf rates. -- scarlet: it's thematic, but how is it smart beta? vanilla,it's plain that's that. anything not that is this big circus tent. some of this will have equal weight. we will wait the products in a way that is different anyways. technically and connotative a smart beta. scarlet: you heard about
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socially conscious investing, but what about investing according to your religious belief? this fund is up 13% since launching in february of 2017. the inspire large-cap etf, or bless, is unique way to pursue value investing. the goal is to uphold morally responsible investing standards, finding companies based on their alignment with biblical values. it has more than $50 million in assets, a minor miracle for a new launch. .lmost 300 days what's excluded are companies involved in what the fund calls immoral practices. the majority of the market value is in the u.s.. 1/5 is from the u.k., australia, and france combined. it will cost you. the issuer says that they donate
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half of their upper profits to charity. are lovely,ic etf's themed. but it's all in the issuers. do even the big guys at dabble in those? not really. blackrock, little bit. vanguard, you won't catch them near anything like this. guys, a lotin the of times these ideas are -- do you want this? thatveryone that fails and people giggle at, there is a hack or a rowboat where people go -- that made so much sense. i like that there is this entrepreneurial spirit in the industry. sometimes you do see the big guys copy them later. you will see them come in if the money is there. they make up the bulk of the ones that are eventually liquidated? eric: it's probably about half. scarlet: that's why we had to
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feature it right away. onsure to join eric and me our first show to solely focus on exchange traded funds. you can catch it every wednesday at 12:30 on bloomberg every wednesday. julia: coming up, how could the passage in the senate of the tax bill affect the year ahead? i never tire of watching that gavel go flying. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.
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under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered.
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comcast business outmaneuver. ♪ julia: from bloomberg world headquarters in midtown, manhattan, this is "bloomberg markets." commodity markets are closing in
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new york. some of today's movers, starting off at oil, $58 per barrel, the tumbled more than expected in the last week as exports surged by the most on record. natural gas futures are down today. the commodity said that most of the u.s. east will see above normal temperatures over the next five days and then a solid cold pattern will push across later this month. let's end with gold, holding onto gains as the dollar declines slightly. the republican tax overhaul passed its final vote today and the revote across the house going to president donald trump's desk for signature. let's check in on the headlines at this hour with mark crumpton. says thatident trump the fight against the islamic state in iraq and syria is nearing an end. speaking at a cabinet meeting today the president praised the progress being made in combating
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the terrorist group that inspired attacks in america and europe. >> we have unleashed u.s. military might on isis and today the coalition to defeat isis has recaptured nearly 100% of the territory once held by the terrorists in a rack and syria. andre close to 100% relief we will finish soon with the isis situation in those countries. mark: jim mattis, who sat next to the president during those marks, said the u.s. must keep forces in the region to make sure that the islamic state can't "come right back to her: of themer president silva said that he would remain a presidential candidate until officially barred. that would happen if the conviction is upheld. currently leading the
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polls for the next elections. a boston lawyer who represented dozens of people who say they were abused by priests call the late cardinal warner an example of the immorality of the catholic church for shielding clergy. he was the archbishop of the boston diocese and he resigned under pressure for having failed to protect children from pro to file -- pedophile priests. >> you guys look at us now, this is who we need to remember. this little girl right here is who i was when the abuse was happening. people forget that. you forget, as you look and listen to us as adults, that this is the damage that was done. mcpherson and robert costello, another survivor of clergy abuse in boston, expressing outrage that pope francis will preside over the funeral rites tomorrow at the st. peter's basilica. south korea may delay scheduled wargames with the united states
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until after they host the winter olympics in february. the goal is to avoid provoking north korea. south korea is concerned that the regime may try to interfere with the games. global news 24 hours per day powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. scarlet? scarlet: let's get more insight on how the tax bill passed by the house and senate could give us more in the year ahead. -- jeremy zirin, great to speak with you. jeremy: when we started to see momentum around the tax bill passing, it was november. we think that there is likely and eight percent to 10% benefit to corporate earnings for 2000
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18. ballpark, i think the market is starting to price in the benefit , but it is very difficult to assess, until the individual investors and analysts start to get guidance from companies as to how much the benefit the companies will keep. ofrlet: in the absence specific guidance, in the past we have seen how the dow jones industrial average did better than the s&p 500. in recent weeks we have seen the return of the trump trade, getting a lot more inflows. is that going to continue to be the case with the dow leading the way in terms of generating interests? i don't focus on that so value the growth has outperformed the most this year. more recently with momentum around tax reform we started to see a bit more of a value bias towards the markets.
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is likely to outperform over the next six months. the shift in sentiment will continue, largely because the preconditions for value to outperform continue to be there. typically outperforms when you start to see short and long-term interest rates rise. our analysis of the last 40 years shows that when corporate profits have grown by more than 15%, value on average outgrows by 4%. next year we were penciling a percent earnings growth before tax reform passed. now it will probably be closer to the 15% threshold. julia: we have a number of discussions here about to what extent the dollar and u.s. not pricedtes have in tax reform and whether that technical reasoning behind that or not -- do you see that equities are leaving here in the there will be some catch up eventually? jeremy: at the end of the day
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you will have a bigger impact on equities and corporate earnings then you will have on the broader economy. ease off ofket will the economic growth, inflation, and compared to other fx markets, we will look at that in other nations. the dollar had a massive run from 2010 to 2016. the depreciation of the dollar in 2017 likely continues again, but probably in a bit more muddled way, given the fact that growth dynamics look stronger. julia: it's a timing thing. scarlet: that's a good point. we know that the tax cut is permanent but for individuals it will expire after 10 years. what kind of material benefit will there be to company earnings and prospects from the individual tax cut, if any? jeremy: i think you will see a little bit better consumer spending next year. not a lot, but faster growth for
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consumer spending. when companies see final demand improving, they are likely to pick it up as well. sending an incremental benefit for economic growth that will by thebe sequenced consumer with a bit more cash flow. then businesses are going to react and pick up investment spending. we haven't spent time talking about how i rate the europeans are. particularly the five nations that wrote a letter to the treasury secretary who said that they are concerned about this. do you expect a kind of retaliation tax overhaul from some of these guys that could potentially benefit the equity markets of some of these nations, to? i think we are in early days for that. the u.s. being one of the largest engines of global growth, if not the largest,
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likely means that foreign economies are actually going to incrementally benefit as the u.s. market picks up momentum. scarlet: you would be hard-pressed to make the case that any of those countries could pass a tax cut that quickly julia:. i could not argue with that. tax legislation typically takes years. the current bill was obviously fast-track this year. in most nations this is usually a multiyear process. julia: i'm sure the americans would argue that they are simply catching up. what we haven't talked about is bitcoin. to what extent have your clients been asking about this? are they looking ahead to bitcoin etf's? the answer, is interest picking up from investors? no question. looking at the charts and turning on the television, you
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can certainly see a lot of hype. there is no weston. this is a highly speculative asset. i wouldn't even classify it as an asset class. i do not think that bitcoin is necessarily a currency, given the fact that every little commerce is purchased in bitcoin. i don't think it's a currency because it's not a stored value. any asset class that is as a volatile as bitcoin, where you 20% of 30% up hours, let alone days, can be classified as a stored value. it can only be specified as pure speculation. yesterday we were talking about a 17,000% rally over 10 months. i will say one thing about cryptocurrency broadly is that we need to be very careful. investors at this stage after , if youarabolic move
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overlay the chart of several of bust favorites, right, like broadvision over the bitcoin charge from the past one to two years? it doesn't bode well for the to 24 months. that said, the underlying technology behind it is certainly something that will utilize foreign hands and productivity and could have significant economic and if it. but it does play in the blockchain and is difficult in this early stage. on the basis of saying that the underlying technology could be useful for many reasons, it's a spirited argument. jeremy: no question. there's no underlying fundamental cash flow right now. and you are in agreement with jeremy -- janet yellen that one. jeremy, thank you so much. coming up, we told you about hot etf's earlier.
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cigarettes, our stock of the hour is philip morris. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ julia: this is "bloomberg markets," i'm julia chatterley. scarlet: and i'm scarlet fu. we are focusing on a sector where m&a activity is only been heating up. julie hyman has the details. julie: consumer staple stocks, where we have seen activity of late with speculation that we will see more next year. that said, this group has not changed much today, seeing a bit of a decline. this is one of the worst performing of the sector spiders that we monitor in today's session. a session in which we has -- as we have been talking about is little changed overall. for the year, consumer staples
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are up, but they have underperformed the sp y and the s&p 500. 9.2ave seen gains of about 5%. first of all, of course, we have had lack of inflation, not good news for consumer staples companies. the stocks that have been outperforming are the ones where has been more pricing power or a more robust industry with m&a speculation. this is supposed to be a year to date chart, partly. estee lauder brown, monster beverage, companies were we have seen m&a speculation on the target side or the acquirer side. i want to talk about our stock of the day and how it has done this year. talking about philip morris international. this stock has done a bit at her as youe overall group, can see. it, like most of the other, many of the other consumer staple
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companies, is facing a tough environment in which we have seen increased regulation of smoking, not just in the u.s., because philip morris doesn't sell in the u.s., but globally. his this company has done turn to smokeless tobacco. or at least attempt to. there if you look at how things are trading in today's session we have indications that there may be some setbacks. is it specifically that it is finding itself challenged with? julie: this is something called by qos, a heated tobacco product. their sales have been relatively strong. the next hurdle is getting u.s. acceptance and approval from the fda. reuters has reported today that philip morris is experiencing regularities involving clinical trials with it. would then theoretically be a hurdle. they won't sell it in the u.s.. all triage will license and
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sally here. but it will still derive revenue from that. that's what's responsible for the pullback. taking a look at the bloomberg, we've got total tobacco sales coming to us, cigarettes and orange, total tobacco in white. cigarette sales have leveled off from declining. tobacco sales have held up better because of smokeless products. scarlet: fighting those regulators. julia: lobbying the government's on these stringent sees. scarlet: proving that these -- julie: attending to prove that these a smokeless tobacco products are safer. julia: thank you very much. time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. apple has a plan to combine apps ipad, and mac. software developers will be able to design a single app that works for the touchscreen, mouse, or trackpad.
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currently the mac has a ghost town of app selections. with swiftvestors duty-free retailers according to elliott management, purchasing the chinese conglomerate hedged a stake in the firm. , allowing customers to attend a movie every day for $9.95 per month, they now have more than one million subscribers. putting down pressure to monetize the service. they lose money on every sale and they plan to make up the difference by selling ads and negotiating tough at the concession stand. that is your business update. scarlet: i was going to say, of course you are going to sign up for it, you can't lose as a
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consumer. julia: absolutely. the business has to get monetizing yesterday. all right, coming up, we are talking the impact of tax reform on commercial real estate with jason kern. does it work better? does it work worse? we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ scarlet: this isscarlet: "bloomberg markets." julia: president trump promise to american people a tax cut for christmas and it looks like we will get it. one of the biggest gifts of all, according to some critics, going estate, thel real place where president trump and his family made their wealth. you can see the biggest first-year benefits of the bill are expected to go to the real estate industry.
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joining us for his outlook on how tax form will impact real .state, jason kern he has $18.5 billion in assets in the hsbcment asia-pacific real estate advisory group. great to have you with us. on this one, the devil is always going to be in the details as far as this is concerned. how optimistic and positive are you as a result? jason: it will be marginally positive for our business. like everyone else, we are in the throes of assessing the combined tax bill and what it means for us. you can't make a broad brush stroke assessments ever in real estate, but for us in particular on the investment side, it's going to be less impactful than you might imagine. if you think about it the vast majority of our investors are already tax exempt. they are states and local pension funds that manage retirement capital for retired , firefighters,
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and so forth. so, they are already benefited -- benefiting from that. we do have investors that are foreign institutions that don't benefit from that tax-exempt status for which this will be a benefit. we also have individuals that we invest property for and they will benefit from lower taxes on their dividends. hang on a second, you just said foreign investors will benefit from this. compare and contrast foreign investor benefits versus individuals. who benefits more or less? there was a tax law in 1980 that foreign institutions get taxed as corporate's when investing in u.s. real estate. ostensibly, their tax would be going from kind of 35% down to 21% if they are treated like domestic pension funds. that will be a benefit.
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probably creating more capital flow into a market that already has that, as you know, but there will be one consequence for this for everyone. julia: high prices? jason: potentially higher prices. the u.s. market is still very much driven by domestic capital so it's very much on the margin when we think that 10% to 20% of foreignin is on investors. there's been a large margin coming to the u.s. in various ways with that tax drag but we have found that that basis continues to be quite disciplined in terms of driving prices up. julia: interesting. you are saying that the impact will be neutral to slightly positive. talk about the different sectors that will be the most attractive as a result with the stuff that you might want to -- want to avoid. jason: one thing you have to realize is that when we talk about the impact of different things, not just factors on the pricing for commercial real estate, it's two things, capital
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markets and the fundamentals. the high point is on the capital market side, that's definitely going to be a net positive for sure. on the fundamentals side, it's less clear. i'm not one to prognosticate as to whether it will drive higher growth or gdp. if so, that's absolutely a positive for all types of property. there's no better predictor of real estate performance than gdp growth. if that's the case, retails will benefit. scarlet: all right, jason kern, we have got to leave it there. now, we have president trump getting ready to speak. he is basically giving a victory lap following the passage of the tax bill. let's bring in kevin cirilli, who at the moment -- there he is, at the white house lawn. this is the south lawn, of course, with the particle facing us. -- portico facing us. how will his comments differ
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from the ones he made at the beginning of his cabinet meeting? kevin: here's a white house were top -- [no audio] having someare difficulty with kevin's audio. but marty shanker, we have managed to get. our chief content officer here at bloomberg. if you look at the comments earlier this afternoon, what would he say now to push this along? marty: did people tell him not to go there when he talked about this being an effective repeal of obamacare and how the corporate tax cuts were the driving force behind this tax overhaul? when in fact the gop narrative has been all along that this is middle-class tax cuts. i think he's going to double down on how they try to sell this. i actually think it's an easier sell than many people might think. i know the poll numbers have been negative, but i think that once this becomes law, the poll numbers might well turn around. thatet: that's interesting
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you say he has to sell it now. they forward he done it. they should have been selling at all along and doing a better job during that time. marty: you can make that argument, but that's not what the gop did, they pushed ahead and now they have to try to explain it to the public. julia: i guess you would have had to leak some details as well along the way. this was surprisingly on leaky, quite frankly. tough.on this was what do you make of gary cohn's onments earlier, fixating something like carried interest, it feels personal for him in particular. it's such a tiny piece of the tax code here. finding it populist, perhaps? is unusual. he threw the members of congress
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under the bus without identifying who they are. he said that there were dozens of attempts at repealing carried interest and referred to the capital as stopping there. thinkingfascinating that gary cohn comes from wall street and that is a place where carried interest is much in favor. but from the beginning he said he wanted to eliminate carried interest. it was always an interesting narrative that it came from him. that's a really good point. president trump had weighed in on that as well. kevin cirilli, your audio is working and you are on the south lawn of the white house. talk to us a bit about who is their right now as the president gets ready to make his remarks. kevin: top republican officials and senior administration accompanying the president and vice president as they are scheduled to address this being a victory lap. it's the first major legislative
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a compliment of this president's term. we should know that they have been bolstered by headlines since at&t announced that they would reward $1000 to 200,000 u.s. based employees and announced a $1 billion investment in u.s. domestic projects. meanwhile, while the work here appears to be finished, the work beginning on the continuing resolution, a lot of these lawmakers are standing behind me on the steps of the white house and will be heading to a conference later tonight at 5:00 , when the work will begin as to whether or not they will be able to avert a possible government shutdown, but either way the white house is trying to bolster republican support right now and they are on the cusp of finalizing their first major legislative accomplishment. scarlet: that's quite the audience there. marty? marty: on those at&t bonus payments, it will be interesting if in high tax states they try to pay that this year as opposed the next year, so that they can
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deduct those taxes in april. because they can't next year. but a lot of these workers are not people who itemize, so i'm just being snarky. [laughter] julia: how concerned are we about what will happen now, the back-and-forth over preventing a shutdown and the technicalities of what they add versus what they don't? marty: it's a messy process that they are still trying to work their way through. it was a messy bill that had to be pulled back to scale. the leadership of both parties say there is no interest in a shutdown. late last night they likely came to an agreement to keep the government running through the holidays. at least for this legislation, the democrats have some sway and some leverage that they didn't have during the tax legislation. kevin: we just got word that we
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forabout two minutes out president trump to make his remarks, so i will keep this quick. cost sharing reduction is going to be a key issue for republicans. mind you, moderate republicans are insisting that these insurance subsidies for obamacare be included in this. it's a nonstarter for several of the republicans at the white house behind me. so, the work is just beginning of that front, quietly working for a one-month extension, january 20th. today, it is all about taxes. had to vote on it twice. feels like we did this yesterday and it is about to get started. what does he need to say today? you said when we started this thisssion that you think poll numbers will pick up from here, why?
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>> i think the controversy over willthe tax bill will do proceed in the background as these get distributed and as people start to see incremental increases in their wages. if the stock market goes up, and a number of people think the tax i will noto that, discount the general feeling of my life is better as a result of the bill. >> i think expectations could not be lower here. i think the fax that the negotiations are done, they are done in secrecy and people were not fans. so you sell the package agreed upon. at the audience stand up as president and vice president pence make their way and are find by paul ryan and
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mitch mcconnell, the senate majority leader. noryone, a big smile p are democrats here. >> it is not a chuck and nancy moment. >> paul ryan says it all for him. a degree of relief. we have questioned whether or andthey would get this done whether this would hit the by december.esk >> the bill bears no relation to the tax plan he had come up with. thet did not -- was not point. as it was one of the first things to go. >> they are declaring victory here. do you see any democrats there at all? >> there are no people there.
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>> we should not take it away either. this is incredibly fast to pull something together here. >> two months ago, they had less than a 50-50 chance to get this done. major accomplishment. >> such an accomplishment for what it took. let's listen to president trump speak now. president trump: it has been an amazing experience, i have to tell you in 34 years. really has not been done. is the largest tax cut in the history of reform.
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it isit is really something spel and i noticed this just came out two minutes ago, they handed it to me, at&t plans to increase 2000 u.s.1 billion employees are that is pretty good. this administration and this congress, you have heard it before. records all over the place. that will continue and then some because of what we did. the typical family of four will , more thanme tax cut $2000. that will be less than the average. [applause]
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trump: one thing that is important for the great farmers and small business owners forced to sell their is this is at argan basement numbers. we have provided, for the most part, estate taxes wiped out. they can keep farms in the family and that is a big factor. very big. this will mean companies are coming back. i campaigned on the fact that we will not lose companies anymore. they will stay in our country. they will stay in our country. you can see what has been happening even with this prospect. enthusiasmremendous and the company is pouring back company. new and young and beautiful and strong company spear that will be working. small businesses will be bigs --
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big beneficiaries. we will bring at least $4 trillion back to this country. likeof them do not even us. it is simple. america great again. i want them to get the glamour and the glory. they will speak in short,i wante shorter, the better. thank mitch mcconnell what a job. what a job. they will speak and say a few words but paul ryan, a little team and we just got together
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and worked very hard, didn't we are at it seems like it was a lot of fun. always a lot of fun when you win. if you work hard and lose, that is not acceptable but i will name a few names. some will,. people i saw so much of over the last month and over the last year, when you think of it, it has not been a year. him -- i hate to say this but we essentially repealed obamacare because week got rid of the individual mandate, which was terrible. and where is don? >> rectified you. donald -- president trump: where is dan? >> he is not here. between dan and don and lisa, you have done a great job.
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up and i mine called sit tell me about it and he said we have been trying to get that past. the country, the world tried with ronald reagan. we got it in this bill. we have a mandate and we have the tax cut reform. when you add up, thank you. cornyn, the great chairman, he will say a few words.
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where is john. great job. i said hello to john cornyn. where is pat? great job. he knows his business. susan collins, we want to thank. susan is around someplace. thank you, susan. these people and it is likely our warriors together. and diane paul ryan is a great speaker. kevin mccarthy. what a job.
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where is he? i don't know. he had a rougher year than most of us. but it is a hell of a way to lose weight, steve. not a good way. we love you, steve. great job. great job. do and iwhat i will mentioned at&t, but many companies said they are so happy and they will do similar announcements. the entrepreneur back into this country. we are getting rid of all the ties and you will see what happens. jobs, jobs, jobs.
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i want to thank everyone behind me. maybe i can start with mitch and then paul and a few of these folks can say a few words and we will have a little fun. thank you. how about you start, mitch. [applause] mcconnell: let me just say you made the case for the tax bill but it has been a year of extraordinary accomplishments for the trump administration. [applause] mitch mcconnell: we have seen the supreme court right of center for a generation. thanks to your nominees, we put 12 circuit court judges in place. court systemhe were established in 1891 p are you hold the record.
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that coupled with what we did last night, and the house finished this morning, means america will start growing again. thank you, mr. president, for all you are doing. paul ryan: a promise each and everyone of us made is a promised cached to -- kept today. something this big and something this generational, something this profound could not have done without exquisite exquisite presidential leadership. thank you for getting us where we are. i want to quickly say thanks
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because this is a team effort from everybody p are i want to thank gary cohn steve mnuchin from the president's economic team for what they did. i want to thank my partner, mitch mcconnell, and i want to thank the two chairmen, orrin hatch and kevin brady. thank you for your leadership. it is really simple. the message to the hard-working taxpayers of america is your tacitly -- tax relief is on its way. message struggling from paycheck. your paychecks are going up. this is the kind of relief americans deserve, it is the kind of tax reform and tax cuts that get our economy growing to reach its potential. this gets us better wages, getsr paychecks, and it the american economy competitive
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in the global economy. this is one of the most important things that we could do for all of the people we represent. it is generational and we are so excited that we will launch next reform sotastic tax americans can see how we truly reach our economic growth and potential and if it were not for woulde people up here, it not be possible. i want to thank the american people for putting their trust chancend giving us this to make the moment possible. thank you very much. president trump: thank you, paul. very hard for a long time. was a culmination. we hope to have bigger moments. a very special guy and a great friend of mine, vice president mike pence.
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vice president pence: thank you for your kind words and leadership. merry christmas, america. [applause] all of the members of congress, thank you, thank you not only for being here today, for the special moment, but thank you .or your leadership a pivotalthis is moment, a day when congress answered your call and made history.
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honestly, i would say to the american people, president trump has been making history since the first day of this administration. have been rebuilding our military, standing with veterans, and last week president trump signed one of the largest investments in national defense since the days of ronald reagan. have defended borders, uphold it -- upholding the rule of law, that illegal crossings are down with a 50% or president trump has been restoring american credibility on the world stage, standing with our allies and with enemies. as the president reflected earlier, nato allies are paying more. north korea is more isolated than ever. the president has put iran on notice. thanks to the leadership of this commander-in-chief and the courage of armed, isis is on the fallen, andital has
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the caliphate has crumbled. from the first day of the administration on, the president championed free and fair trade. americannleashed energy and today, mr. president, you fulfilled the promise you americansllions of struggling in the economy, to talk -- to cut taxes across the board. the president laid out his vision for a tax cut that would and middle-class miracle that is exactly what the congress passed today. this will make us more
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competitive to create good paying jobs and raise wages. day.ved with him every president donald trump is a man of his word, a man of action. with strong support of these members of congress, president donald trump delivered a great victory for the american people. we made history today. said when weent gathered this morning, a few of us with a few less hours sleep than usual, we are just getting started. i can ensure you this president and the entire administration will not rest were relent until the forgotten men and women of america are forgotten no more. so thank you, mr. president. thank you for your leadership, thank you for your love of the country and the people of the country. i know in my heart with strong
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continued support and the members of congress gathered, and with cheetos help, you will make america great again. president trump: thank you very much. a friend of mine, tim scott. i would like you to say a few , we were not looking too good a couple of times and he is really a tremendous help. thank you, tim. tim: after one of the conversations, we talked about ways to improved -- to improve distressed communities in the country. we talked about legislation that will move communities forward,
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you said yes. part of the tax reform package and the investing opportunity act has been included, which will bring trillions of dollars into poor communities because of your willingness to listen. trump: thank you. thank you. i onlypresident said have about 45 more minutes. [laughter] that. not say got it. let me say to the americans watching this process. it is not about washington. it is not about the left. it is not about the right. him and about single-parent mom's looking for a reason to be hopeful and 2018.
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the tax reform plan delivers for the average single mother a 70% tax cut. for the average family working paycheck-to-paycheck, looking for ways to be hopeful about their future and have a next her night for dinner out at a this tax reform package cuts their taxes by nearly 60%. because of folks like marco rubio and ivanka, they can folks thiskids in the household, plan doubles the child tax credit and makes about 7% of it refundable. this is a plan to be proud of. it speaks to the heart of everyday americans. president trump -- president
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trump: diane. come on up. diane: thank you, mr. president. i want to thank all of the folks behind me. we talked about doing tax reform and the job cuts act, it is what the american people will benefit by. as tim has said, it is the average american and that is the reason we did tax reform. we looked at the families that need assistance and help and the relief to live their lives the way we promised with the american dream. it is such an honor to stand here with the president of the united states, the vice president of the united states, who have been an integral part in making sure this happened. brady, whohank kevin i know hours and hours and hours worked hard to make this happen. in what was a short time.
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some of the folks being left out right now, i know we have thanked them before but i want to publicly thank them. that is all of the staff who has worked so hard in the house and the senate to make this happen. 2 [applause] >> now we can say merry christmas to the american people because we are giving them a huge gift. a break in these taxes and an opportunity for jobs to grow and to give them a bigger paycheck. you, mr. say thank president, thank you, president trump, for allowing us to have you as our president and to make america great again. [applause] president trump: thank you very much and we can say merry christmas again. people are saying merry christmas again and we like the sound. lisald like to ask
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michalski and dan sullivan to come up. if don young is here and he is around here, come here. dan, get over here. >> mr. president. i do not know if you recognize, it is of course a historic day but it is also the beginning of oyster salt -- winter solstice. it does not feel like it now but the winter solstice is the shortest day, the darkest day. for us in alaska, we have had recently some dark days. with the passage of the tax will, with passage finally almost 40 years later, to allow us to open up the 1002 area, this is a bright day for alaska and a bright day for america. so we thank you for that. [applause]
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think about it. 31 years, we have been working on tax reform. 38 years. this has been a multigenerational fight. i look to some of our friends from alaska who have come 5000 miles to be here for last night and today. there, toho live those who raise their families, to to those who are looking live for generations, know that our promise to you today is a bright future where we care for our environment, where we care for our people, and we also care for our country providing a only by theded not united states and alaskans, but by our friends and allies.
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this is what energy dominance is all about. >> i want to thank you and your administration. administration has come in and recognized this incredible resource that we have. developing our energy is good for jobs. it is good for the environment and we have high standards. you released or national security strategy a couple of days ago. you talk about the economy, what the tax bill is all about, but he also talk about energy dominance. on behalf ofnk you
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alaskans and the american people. we are finally doing it. >> thank you. the ladies and the people who helped me do this, i tried to get this passed. it proves one thing. perseverance overcomes intelligence. presidentthank mr. and my two senators. the team cannot be beat. the bill does what is right for the nation. and the great land will be great again. thank you, mr. president. [applause] president trump: he's a pretty
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popular guy. pretty good. i want to ask orrin hatch, a special friend of mine. he was in there, always fighting for all of us and a fantastic job as chairman. >> he lived up to everything i thought you what you are one heck of a leader. mitch mcconnell and the other leaders as well. i can tell you we are making headway. this is the beginning.
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mr. president, he has not been in office for even a year and look at all the things he has been able to get done. by sheer will in many ways. i hope we get behind him in any thise can and we turn country around in ways that benefit the whole world. america reallyt is. and how the rest of the world depends on us. and the country. i came from very humble roots. i have to say, this is one of the great privileges of my life. i appreciate it so much to with these wonderful colleagues and members standing behind us. i realize that you care.
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all i can say is that god loves this country and we all know it or who would not be where we are without him. we love all of you. and makeeep fighting it the greatest presidency with same. [applause] >> how good was that? another man who worked so hard and knows it inside and out, kevin brady. [applause and cheering] kevin brady: ok, guys. thank you, mr. president.


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