tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg December 26, 2017 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
♪ it is 7:00 a.m. in hong kong. we are live from bloomberg's asia headquarters. welcome to "daybreak asia." apple sales drag on wall street. since the highest mid-2015 on disruption in libya. could do better. abenomics has seen some success, but japan still has some way to go. >> from bloomberg's local headquarters, it is just after 6:00 p.m. tuesday. atcoin showing no signs of hangover, halting a losing streak and topping $16,000.
blockchain is shaking things up at old-school giants. inis now creating new life the stalwarts like ibm and oracle. ♪ betty: david, bitcoin was up, apple down, right? you saw some of that in asia yesterday, the apple suppliers getting hit on speculation about the numbers coming in far short of forecasts, in fact to 10 million shorter than what some analysts had predicted. i want to pull up a chart that you are familiar with. this is a 254. it shows you the revenue breakdown -- 8254. it shows you the revenue
breakdown by segment and shows you how important the iphone revenue is to apple, but that decline we have seen a bit worrisome. this replenishment cycle really going to turn out to be the way apple believes it will be with the iphone x come or is $1000 the breaking point? david: that is a lot of money for a handset. betty: yeah. david: you look at these numbers and forecasts, you mentioned 10 million short. coming out, may be shipping 35 million handsets in the first quarter, still a big number, that coming from 45, that is a problem, and could be a problem for suppliers in the asia-pacific. the one that puts together your iphones, hon hai precision, a seven-year look at the stock, 27% drop that has taken the share price to a key support level. things are where
when they open up later on. betty: in the meantime, apple was the big mover in the u.s. market. let's bring up the u.s. boards. .1%, the dow barely changed, but the nasdaq off by .3%, the big culprit again is apple. that is setting up for a down day for you in asia. david: 2.5% drop in apple. have a look at new zealand, also australia. there we go. .1%, nothing exciting. we will see tepid post-christmas bottoms until the new year. kiwi dollar weaker against the u.s. dollar. have a look at australia, 2.71% yield. there we go. , sideways trading there. the big story come oriole.
have a look at where we are. the big story. have a look at where we are. a problem for india. japan might get a boost as far as inflation concern. libya, an explosion there, one of its pipelines, the biggest export terminal, pushing up the price. in the meantime, let's get to first word news. >> copper rose to its highest in three years as china's is in clients. futures gained in new york, the longest winning streak in a year. futures ahead for the highest close since july 2014. china's leading producer was told to halt output for a week while pollution investment is carried out. bull whoy anian
forecast the yuan says it has further to go. said it would strengthened by the end of 2017. that call is looking like the most accurate. he expects to see 6.45 in 12 months time. a newhas announced barometer of the health of its provincial economies based on green-related indicators. the green index gauges the quality of the environment, the utilization of resources, and cleanup efforts. beijing tops the list despite air-quality being near the bottom. cap shanghai population of 25 million to limit the number of people who call the nation home. roomlan offers little to move with the population of
24 million. urbanization has been key to growth, but spurred pollution, ho housing shortages, and a widening wealth cap. hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated from the mequon in moved in.rm temb in 1997, tropical storm linda killed 770 people and 2000 missing. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am jessica summers. back. bitcoin is at least today. the cryptocurrency rallied strongly after plunging 25% in the previous five days. has the charts we need to know. >> let's see where bitcoin and
futures are trading. asia-pacific trading lower. bitcoin down. in u.s. trading, it almost hit $16,000. cme futures closed up, but taking a leg lower their. cboe futures also trading down. i want to point out the premium between the spot and futures. that was getting smaller and smaller as futures started coming online, and we're seeing the trend continue here. let's look at volatility. that is the name of the game. love volatility because it is a good way to see profits, but also losses. you want volatility, you got it. take a look at the yellow line. 127 volatility points is where bitcoin is. waslast time we hit that
september, august, july, but we are seeing this leg up because tothe false to -- falls $11,000. 7099.t chert, the top part of the chart is bitcoin futures for both exchanges and bitcoin itself. , boxing day, up by 14%, 15%, that we are taking a look at the low it hit over the past five days when it hit $11,000. weis now up 44% or so, and can see there possibly might be ofloor ins terms -- in terms december 22. these blues and yellows are volatility spikes, so as prices fell, investors didn't come in thinking there was a floor there , pushing it back up to where we
are now. we are talking about bitcoin, but there are many other bitcoin options. this is chart 465. bitcoin here is in white. 4.8% over the past 10 days through december 26. you can see it is the laggard among cryptocurrency rivals. oin downw, that is loiec coin down 4%. etherium.e is the theor so there are options here. one thing i want to note is bloomberg intelligence said bitcoin is not the best representation and he says second generation bitcoin, reptile currency rivals, could
be the bitcoin of the future, taking the place of bitcoin right now. he says look to this purple line, because that could take the place of bitcoin moving ahead. those are your three bloomberg charts you need to know as we continue our conversation about bitcoin. david: thank you for that. is shaping up to be all about blockchains. thee talking about technology breathing life into old school firms like ibm, oracle. our reporter out of los angeles. we know these companies are investing heavily in blockchain. the question is why. >> the short answer is it plays to their strengths, ibm, oracle, microsoft, companies that built their business on massive computing power and selling
companies the resources they need to drive large transactions, many transactions in a day. they also provide business consulting and helping companies to redesign their businesses to take advantage of new technologies. blockchain plays to both areas because it is about redefining transactions and how you record things over time to make your business more efficient and eliminate sticking points in your supply chain, etc. it is thereasons perfect convergence for them. david: we know they are doing it. the other question is how are they doing it. a lot of these old-school tech companies are adapting to blockchain. past two years, these companies have been getting into cloud computing, the idea is you don't want to store data and applications locally. you want to store them in the
fast computing resources of companies like ibm and microsoft. what they are finding is blockchain is taking up a large part of the cloud, so ibm for example things this coming year that blockchain will be one of the biggest a man's on their -- biggest demands on their cloud computing ability. it is interesting given how nascent the technology is. wayother is changing the they compensate sales professionals in their workforce. in the old days, you get compensated on how much ibm stock you sold to a client. are getting, they compensated if the client recruits other companies to be part of their blockchain and comes to ibm for services. it is like a mary kay cosmetics model. betty: what has it been like elsewhere? >> it has been all over. the people who are advocates for
it,kchain, enthusiast of say it is almost like a new internet in the technology world. we will see fast applications we could not have dreamed up over the next few years, so a lot of companies are in extreme and implementation phases, but it is anything where you need to track things moving through your system over a long time is a natural fit. food safety is another example, but were seeing all sorts of things. record label copyrights that have smart contracts that you can sell the rights to use your song in a movie without having people involved, very interesting stuff, so it will be fun to see how it evolves. betty: it will be. everything with bitcoin is fun to watch. we will have much more on and how the cryptocurrency is shaking off its holiday hangover. we have the outlook for the
this is "daybreak asia." i am betty lou in new york. david: over to japan. shinzo abe and governor kuroda have delivered their indent your message, saying japan is improving, but still has a long way to go. abenomics has strengthened the economy and beaten back inflation, but prices are not ideal and wages remain weak and japan remains short of this revolution shinzo abe pledge to deliver in 2012. conditions have improved, not just for large
firms, but also smaller companies. the labor market has picked up all over japan. an upper course, and we must continue this trend into the new year. i am asking business leaders to wage raises 3% at the next pay talks in the spring. japan has remained relatively sluggish compared to economic growth and a tightening labor market. annual cpi inflation excluding fresh food and energy has remained only slightly positive, and there is still a long way to go to achieve the target of 2%. the boj will pursue monetary easing under the current qqe with yield curve control. our next guest says the increase in wages and consumer inflation will be key factors to watch for the japanese economy next year. we are joined by the chief
economist from japan macro advisors out of tokyo. a good morning to you. we heard from the prime minister and boj governor, so assuming the economy continues to expand thingscurrent pace, all equal, exchange where it is, oil prices where they are, so when do we get to 2% inflation? >> the boj is saying 2019. i think our market has more or less given up hope for reflation. i think market start to think however low unemployment gets, there is not going to be inflation, but there is no theory behind it. yes, it is a puzzle why there is no inflation, global puzzle. it falling from , andto 2.3% next year along the way there will be inflation. david: we are at 2.7%.
of fullhink the concept employment is now much lower than it was in the 1990's? they have opened up something different with abenomics, haven't they? >> i believe there is more flexibility in the labor market. the labor market is more competitive. there are ways that companies can squeeze more labor out of the labor force, such as , sofemale labor force especially in this area, they have been rising. more than 23% of people over the age of 65 work in japan, one of the highest rates in the world, have a limit,s and i think 2018 may see the finally having to rage
wages to attract more workers. betty: what do you think if you were looking at this governor combination, where would you give them the most credit? isprime minister shinzo abe a guy who picked governor kuroda , so he has to get the credit for what the bank has achieved in the last five years. governor kuroda is the hand that has implemented shinzo hobbies policy, but the prime minister is the ultimate authority. abe's policy, but the prime minister is the ultimate authority. betty: this is chart 4491. we have seen the rise of both debt as ajapan's percentage of gdp, both pretty troubling. when it comes to japan, have
they stabilized the debt problem in japan versus in china, which is still a very big risk for the economy? call the last five years of disappointment. so thereent is down, are almost one million more people employed in japan, so more than one million happy families. as a prime minister, he did contribute to the greater happiness of the japanese population, so i would not call it a disappointment. it is a big achievement, and they say they will continue on the policy part. david: if only inflation was measured through happiness. the other thing i want to ask immigrationclearly is a big issue in japan and easy to say looking at how crippling bad demographics are for the economy that opening up immigration is the way to go, but help us understand them a
shinzo abe virtually controls parliament. why can he get meaningful reform through when it comes to immigration? well, politicians have to make a lot of balancing factors, and in prime minister abe's case , he needs to gain support from his nationalist, right wing part of his supporters, and that right wing part, they definitely don't want immigration, so prime minister abe does give lip arvice so they were open up little here, a little there, but in terms of numbers there has not been much increase in immigration because one of his es isrter bas nationalist and right wing. david: it is political when it comes to shinzo hobbies fragile, if you will, approval -- shinzo abe's fragile, if you will, approval rating.
i can't see a single challenge to shinzo abe. why do you think politics is the biggest risk next year? >> prime minister abe has been popular, but this year was a low , the year his popularity plummeted because of scandals. ,hen you look at the polls people do still support prime minister abe because they feel there is no alternative. the support for prime minister oblique is not particularly positive, so when another , his support ratio may plummet and people might start to think about replacing him. when he goes, there goes governor kuroda and is economics out the window. betty: as you mentioned, we are still looking at stimulus. let's not talk about taking away that stimulus yet in japan, but
do you think that might start to arise by the end of 2018? when does the boj join the other central banks and start looking at taking away stimulus? pair, primes the minister shinzo abe and governor kuroda, so long as they are in their current seats, i don't think there is much risk they will change this reflationary policy next. at will ber corrode up for reappointment this march. that would be one of the first important issues to look at in 2018. betty: thank you so much. from japanconomist macro advisors in tokyo with that outlook on japan. don't forget our interactive function tv . you can watch us live and die into any of the securities or bloomberg functions we talk about. you can become part of the
check oft's get you a the latest business flash headlines. toshiba, one stock to watch, has 97firmed it is being sued by institutional investors seeking damages for its inappropriate accounting scandal. this suit was filed in tokyo district court in september. of case brings the number cases to 34 come up for a combined $1.5 billion. 30%, selling assets in a debt restructuring program and cutting borrowing by $6 billion in comes after to the collapse of merger talks and a failure of
david: it is 7:30 wednesday morning in hong kong. it is warm as we approach the new year. the function on the terminal for the five-year mean, 17 degrees celsius. we are 30 minutes from the open of major markets. betty: it feels like 17 fahrenheit. closed deep in the red, at least when it comes to the nasdaq, tech shares taking a hit, but still a beautiful skyline, empire state building still celebrating christmas. i am betty liu in new york. david: you are watching
"daybreak asia." the china beige book says recent data offers a warning for 2018 now that president xi jinping is less motivated to prop up growth. there is an incentive to ensure the economy was harming a long, but fourth-quarter results show a shift to slower growth. china stepping up scrutiny of overseas deals. reform commission planning punishment for companies engaged in unfair competition and illegal financing. only approve projects in line with development plans. chinese companies have announced 145 million dollars in offshore purchases this year. hasa stock regulator ordered the founder of a video streaming service to return home
to deal with the company's financial problems. src wants the leshi founder to come home. the stock has been suspended since april. imports of liquefied natural gas jumped in november as beijing ordered record amounts. shipments surged to 400-7000 tons from nothing, making the u.s. china's third-largest supplier behind australia and qatar. china is using more lng as part of its campaign against pollution. blockchain earned a boost with china using it to buy oil from the middle east. to digital applications and smart contracts helped sinochem cut costs by 20%, 30%. it adds it will help improve
transparency and risk management. it is being touted as saving the commodities sector $100 million -- hundreds of millions of dollars every year. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. looking at crude prices now, close to $60, levels not seen in 2.5 years, after a pipeline explosion in libya. we are joined by our deputy sydney bureau chief to tell us more about this explosion, what happened there, and why we are seeing this rally. >> yes. was anotheron reminder of how unstable things are in libya. what we are hearing from sources on the ground is this is up to 100,000 barrels in production from libya, a considerable part of their daily output, which can be around one million.
that has been a trigger point for the latest move up in crude. the saudi government came out with budget forecast that suggest they will post their first surplus in a decade thanks to strong oil revenue. they are looking for a jump in oil revenue of 80%. that was viewed positively by the market. whether this rally can last is an open question. markets are not liquid and that tends to exaggerate moves. oft we saw was the trimming some long positions by hedge funds in the oil market. that may resume in january in expected sea, that is to come back to full production in january, and also inventory levels in the u.s. are expected to rise as regular maintenance is completed. revenue, it is certainly a big headline, but
copper also heading higher, thee iron ore going in other direction, and both of those involved china. >> that's right. china seems to be the main factor. copper prices hit the highest in three years. was afactor there pollution crackdown in china that continues. they decided to shut down the largest copper producer for a week as they take time to assess what sort of pollution that plant is causing. enjoyinge already strong supply-demand dynamics, and that is expected to continue into 2018. iron ore is a different story. we have had data showing iron china hitting in high levels, and again the pollution factor playing in the different way. the chinese authorities are looking to curb production of steelmakers, and that has a
knock on effect to demand for iron ore for those steel plants, so that is having a restraining impact on prices. going into 2018, we can see that dynamic continuing. the chinese government is looking to move away from the development of heavy industry and investment in that area and looking for two boosting consumer demand, and that might have an impact on the iron ore demand out of china, so the price outlook for iron ore is looking uncertain going into the future. betty: thank you so much. our deputy bureau chief there in sydney. apple analysts have lowered iphone shipment projections for the first quarter, citing weak demand. we saw shares here fall almost 3% on that news. is our bloomberg tech reporter in san francisco. what is going on here? is it just the price alone here
with the iphone x? >> the issue fundamentally is if you look at the iphone x, $300 more, and you're getting face idea and a little more. these numbers seem to be suggesting that is enough -- is not enough. betty: if we are seeing these projections and they are proven correct, perhaps falling short as much as 10 million iphones what doesrst quarter, that mean for apple, but also its stock price? we're talking about a pretty big leg lower here? >> the thing we have to be careful about is apple itself has not released its projections yet for the calendar first quarter. they have only released it for the fiscal quarter through christmas. that will be the real telling point here on whether it is affecting their top line.
the other element is they are going fast in other parts of the business like apple music and the app store, and that might pick up some of the slack. all know the iphone does make up the majority of the revenue for apple. you alluded to this earlier, they haven't come out and said we will be selling less of the iphone in the first quarter. when do we expect that to ever?, if remind us of what that forecast is in terms of the iphone shipments. >> they don't rake out apple breakouts, breakout -- apple themselves forecast for the iphones. that forecast they made at the last quarterly earnings call would still be a record christmas quarter for apple, even if that is not the same growth rate they have enjoyed in previous years. they will release the forecast for three months
through march is likely the next set of earnings towards the end of january. they have not announced the timing of that release yet, but bets are january 30. david: help us understand the other parts of the business. how are the other revenue streams doing for apple as we move into 2018? >> the iphone accounts for two thirds of apple revenue. that increases when they have a new iphone out. in the most recent quarter, good news for apple. after several quarters of declining sales, all product categories grew in the most recent quarter. apple services is a higher margin business, and it is a business they hope to double to $50 billion by 2020. that is the one investors and analysts are looking at with
massive interest. betty: we have been asking all of our guests come of the 2018 forecasts, the one thing you are watching in 2018 for apple, aside from the iphone? >> the one element is whether this iphone proves to be the start of a super cycle, rapid revenue growth, but the notion or idea that is crucial for apple is repatriation. they have $240 billion offshore. their ability to bring that back and how they deployed is something that people will be watching with a keen eye. david: thank you very much. our bloomberg tech reporter joining us live out of san francisco. you can get a roundup of the stories to get your day going, there we go. it looks like an emoji from the 1980's. there we go. dayb on your terminal.
it is also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. you can get the news on industries and assets you care about. seen one like that in decades. more on tech next. wild year fora bitcoin, so let's talk about 2018 and what is in store for the cryptocurrency. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
we sat down with a business professor scott galloway and started asking his thoughts on bitcoin. >> dominating the headlines. inknow it will be famous 2018. we just don't know what it will be famous for. this thing has so much interest. to imagine not going up here when you see it legitimized across exchanges. it is the largest case of fomo in the history of investment markets. >> i thought about it, yes. i think everyone has. >> we are all thinking about it. somethinghere you see like this run-up where there is not a basic understanding of it, it will be subject to wild fluctuations. blockchain will potentially for industries, and bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are turning index, the less
we trust institutions, the more bitcoin goes up. i think it is a proxy for the lack of trust in our institutions. >> some say that is how it started, because it started gaining steam after the financial crisis. >> every fiat currency ultimately collapses. a currency not dependent on a federal reserve our central bank is appealing when people don't trust institutions. >> unlike other bubbles like the housing bubble or the stock market bubble, if bitcoin bursts come will that have an impact on the bigger economy? $250e market cap is only billion, so it doesn't present systemic risks. a lot of young people have spent a lot of money on it. the crises in bubbles are what sets the market off in a downward spiral.
we don't see it coming. if everybody is calling for bitcoin to be a bubble, the comomists called the dotc bubble in 1997, 2 years before. the only thing we know is we don't know. >> that is true. let's try to figure out what we might know on the regulatory will, do you think there be a bigger clamp on tech guys? >> this is the year of that war breaks out in big attack. -- big attack. tech. i think a lot of us are coming to the realization that there are some downsides to the egg .ttack -- big tech we are especially angry, almost
like a spurned lover. we fell into this trap thinking technology was about the betterment of humanity, and we have come to the realization they are just there to serve shareholders. we are angry. the cultural problems at uber. the weaponization of these platforms by the russian government. we are starting to get angry and that will result in fines and calls to break them up. >> who could be most vulnerable to that? >> in terms of market share, google has 90 plus market share of search. would be hard to defend google's market share not being a concentration monopoly like power. in terms of political perception, the most momentum will be around breaking up facebook.
facebook or facebook, instagram and whatsapp as separate companies. they have been the most tone deaf in terms of criticisms. they launch a gateway drug, a product for 10-year-olds. i've -- >> you would give mark f?kerberg and f? -- an >> i think facebook will go down as a case study and how not to handle a crisis. millions, then hundreds of millions, then on the heels of that they launch the product for tenure owns. this company has shown it is incredibly tone deaf. >> let's talk about amazon. geteems like you can't through earnings calls without some industry talking about amazon. 2018? --he outlook and
in 2018? will jeff bezos only get bigger? and apple are closer, but amazon will get there first. we are heading towards an amazon singularity, where all consumer stocks trade on the underlying performance, the macro environment, and what amazon is or is not doing in that sector that day. up, goes on amazon, it goes every other shoe brand goes down. amazon acquires whole foods and it goes up by more than the acquisition price come and their competitors go down by more than their acquisition price. the value of kroger declined by a third between the time amazon announced the acquisition and when it closed. down 4%, 5%s go when amazon hence it's going -- hints it is going into the pharmacy business.
amazon can do jedi mind tricks and cause it to be down 20% to 30% just on a press release. >> this year it seemed to be amazon-whole foods. what about next year? what industry could they disrupt, not just by saying so, but doing something? >> it looks as if they are going into -- gosh, it is almost like what industry with a not disrupt? people talk about amazon versus walmart. i think the celebrity death match is amazon and netflix. amazon was number seven in terms of the amount of market share of streaming video during primetime hours. within one year, it is number three. they are spending four point $5 billion on original content, only second to netflix. have access to infinitely cheap capital, you can go into any sector and be a player because you can overwhelm them with cheap capital.
market in the u.s., not much direction for asian markets. this is "daybreak asia." i am betty liu in new york. david: ahead of the open, let's get an update on business flash headlines. mitsubishi ufj, you want to buy itster it agreed to stake in an indonesian company. it is expected to be completed after the third quarter of the coming year. the acquisition will help the japanese bank expand in southeast asia's biggest economy. lose itsng kong set to ranking as the fifth busiest container port next year. of theng is the only one top five to report weaker traffic. bloomberg intelligence expects it to pass hong kong on an
annual basis in 2018. david: over to china, this sprawling group is said to have options for hollywood production house, and we are told they include a fit. the conglomerate has discussed its stake and financing for films. about eight values it at $1 billion. the latest star wars movie again led the north american box office at the weekend, although demand disappointed somewhat. took $100 million, but ticket sales were down 54% on its opening performance. the decline is the second were seen by any star wars movie. box office guru says part of the eve on due to christmas
a sunday. i have not had a chance to watch this star wars movie yet, so don't tell me the ending. don't tell me anything about this movie. even if those numbers missed estimates, star wars is on track to generate almost $1 billion in ticket sales globally. i don't think that is too shabby for disney. david: not at all. it is quite a franchise, isn't it? i went to see it last thursday. there is a seasonal aspect to this. fairlyhave a stellar first weekend. have a look at this graphic. we just went through some of the numbers there. this is a graphic on the terminal which actually puts this current version or current
edition of the star wars movie in context when you compare it back to the first in 1977. what it shows you is it compares the drop or change from the first and second weekend. the last jedi is the second to there, quite a drop 54%. betty: rogue one was worse. david: personally it was always worst in terms of the movie, but that is just my opinion. betty: even $1 billion in tickets sales is a long way off from some of the giant best-selling movies of all time hike avatar, and of course my romantic favorite, titanic. almost $3 billion in ticket sales. it still has a long way to go. much more ahead on the next hour of "daybreak asia."
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hong kong, i am david ingles. welcome to "daybreak asia." your top story, apple ways on tech stocks in the asia-pacific market. this disruption we are seeing in libya. a crypto surge this year. there are signs things are changing. betty: from bloomberg's global headquarters, i am betty liu in new york, just after 7:00 tuesday. no sign of a holiday hangover. trading just under $16. samsung back in court, appealing
the sentence for corruption. prosecutors want a longer-term. david: as we try and shake off cobwebs from the holidays, christmas, a fairly tepid volume. all markets being opened today in the asia-pacific. one of the things we are watching closely 90 minutes from now, the latest read on industrial profits in china. normally we do not talk about this, but it has seen quite a comeback. the bottom of this chart is since -- consumer price inflation. a lot of these industrials clock in a decent 2017. betty: that has implications for
how economists and analysts are viewing not just the growth story in china, but the debt story. one of the biggest risk here in china is the rise of corporate debt. if we continue to see those numbers go up, it might alleviate those concerns. we will watch those numbers. but let's get the first word news with jessica summers. jessica: bitcoin bounced back, surging re-fleet passed $16,000. traders had to draw a line under a five day slump. renewed warnings from financial authorities about risk in digital coin. israel's companies treating with bitcoin. they are bracing for bitcoin exchanged fail. a contrarian bull who forecasted the yuan's rise of this year said the climb has further to go. he said a year ago the u.n.
would strengthen -- the yuan would strengthen. $6.45 in 12o see months. china has announced a new barometer for the health of its economy. the green development index measures cleanup efforts. despite its air quality being near the bottom. china is to cap the population of shanghai at 25 million for the next to connect a -- the next two decades. it offers little room to move, with a population of already 24 million. its bird pollution, housing shortages, and a widening wealth gap.
vietnam escaped a powerful storm, downgraded to a tropical depression. people were evacuated from the delta before it moved in. forecasters expected to dissipate in the gulf of thailand. storm lindapical left more than 2000 people missing. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers, this is bloomberg. david: jessica, thank you. australia has been up and running for about an hour or so. let's get a sense of where we are in this key narrative. that post christmas time, holiday volumes. mucharratives, not direction when it comes to the u.s. section. have to watch the tech space, given further volatility that
could come through on the apple -tech stocks. the kospi opening 0.5% lower this morning. we are seeing tech shares gain ground in seoul, despite weakness we saw overnight. tokyo, the nikkei 225 and topix opening weaker as the yen stays near an overnight high. topeoul, two of apple's suppliers, samsung and lg display, up. samsung gaining ground 1% while lg display has been moving. korea conditionally approving their oled investment plan in china. a.p. sharesasx 200, losing 0.2%. the asx 200 gaining 0.25%. this is the second key narrative today.
they are tracking the rally we saw in the u.s. peers. wtitv 665 shows you the trading near $60 for the first time since 2015, and is set for a fourth monthly gain. a boost coming from libya and the saudi bullish forecast. keep an eye on this space. betty: watching oil prices, crude trading at $60 a barrel, the wti crude the highest in more than two years. that pipeline burst, the bullish forecast and saudi arabia, shows oil prices today are getting that bounce. our next guest expects prices to peak early in the new year. i want to bring in dominic schnider from ubs wealth management. why do you think oil prices are
really keen here? back, thef you look messages, prices could go higher. in 2018, we think supply hit response quite heavily. we are looking at almost 1.9 million barrels of -- incremental increase. if you make the math, the oil price can be balanced in 2018. the tone forts prices to come under pressure again. betty: by the end of next year, where do you think we will be hovering around? dominic: if you look at brent prices, targeting 67 and on the wti, 553. you do get decent gains of 5% to 6%. but these will not be sufficient for the decline we have seen in prices.
if you look at speculative accounts, the ratio from a long to short are blown out, historically. some good news on the supply front. we have seen good news from the u.s., that story can turn quickly quite sour. betty: give us more detail about the demand picture for oil. dominic: demand this year was phenomenal. at one point, six or even more. everyone underestimated the demand side this year. if you look at the agencies that came in with a meager outlook, and have to revise it up. even in the latest report it was revised higher. if you look at global growth, it will not accelerate next your anymore. and some economies, decelerate. china, one of the main drivers, needs to be cautious. having a target of 1.4 million barrels is good. the demand side is supportive of
prices, but the supply-side will react more fearfully in 2018," call for a cut. betty: i want to talk about commodities. there have been factors pressuring commodities. i want to pull up a chart, g which shows you how far commodity prices have fallen. they have fallen to all time lows, according to an index relative to stock prices. money has been flowing into equities, bitcoin. is 2018 going to be a different picture? have commodities gotten so cheap they are now bargain and you would be remiss not to participate in jump in? dominic: i am not sure if that analysis -- you compare commodities versus equities on a total return basis, holds in the long turn -- long run.
that makes commodities in the long run a non-performer always against equities. isond, think about if there a risk premium attached to commodities -- probably not. are peoplestion, going to chase commodities? from our perspective, i think 2018 might be a flat year. yes, we start on a strong side and a classical myth cycle position, typically the sweet spot. commodities and base metals do great when growth is accelerating, it is globally synchronized. we see a list in ip. i think the supply side can respond. as i said, supply responding and side, thee metal second half of the year will see supply responding. i would be cautious.
at the end, we could walk away with a minus and commodities, unless we get a drought in agriculture prices. overall, i would be cautious, looking for individual picks. david: speaking of individual picks, what is your favorite commodity going into next year and why? what do you like the most in 2018? i said before, it is energy and base metals, from the top down. side, i think we look for aluminum. you have to have supply adjustment in china taking place. the world market outside china is in deficit. another 10%prices, upside. you can use other base metals, say, copper. where you sell
volatility at a premium. you want the correct exposure. another thing we like his gold, but not in the short-term. simply long 2018 story, because it is trading cheaply for equity. as an insurance asset, it is worth holding it in your portfolio. if you look at other insurance assets, agriculture commodity prices are very much depressed and reduce the risk on the horizon with regards to whether in the short-term it has upside potential for corn and other grains. if you want a potential spot in food inflation, look to the grains. david: look for the grains, words of wisdom from dominic schnider, we talked about commodities.
♪ betty: this is "daybreak asia." i am betty liu in new york. david: i am david ingles in hong kong. dominic schnider still with us from ubs management. we talked a little bit about oil in the previous segment. i want to segue into some of your currency picks this year. prices point, higher oil will spur the rupee and other asian currencies. at theselook economies, why are they dealing with account deficits? dominic: i agree with regard to the indian rupee.
here, the risk is that inflation had stored 5% to read we are looking at 2.5% for 2018. at,the market is looking looking at 6.6% this year headed toward 7.4%. but the story will be growth acceleration taking place. the indian rupee might be quite stable. you have the growth story, which is supportive. higher energy prices for asian economies -- yes, it weighs on the current account. but keep in mind, overall their current accounts are quite high. inflation increases, it can motivate asian central banks in terms of tightening monetary visit -- positions. export mind 2016 we had coverage continuing. we had earnings recovering come as you mentioned. we mention the chinese earnings
development quite strongly and look for in investment cycle. asian central banks are prone to tighten. higher oil prices might facilitate that move. i think it is going to be currency-supported. there is another side to the story we need to consider. latin america are supportive of higher oil prices. your highest conviction trade for 2018? i don't want to give you a pair, in general i would go for emerging-market bonds. i think that is really going to do well with midday high digit yields. we do look for broad weakness on the dollar. the dollar heading to 125, something to look at. if you ask me for the individual
take him i would go for the swedish krona in europe. economy isuse that the most advanced in europe and will see more tightening kicking and. you will see on top of euro-dollar moves, the swedish krona appreciating against the euro. that would be my top pick in europe. in asia, if an average trade but good one, stick to the sing singh dollar. u.s.: let's talk about the dollar, which has had one of its worst years in a decade, despite the fed coming in and continuing to tighten or raise rates. they are expected to continue the rate tightening pass in 2018, maybe even might surpass the forecast of three rate hikes. is that going to be anymore supported for the dollar next year? dominic: they really depends on
how bullish you are on the fed. we are looking for two hikes in 2018. it is pretty much hike -- priced in. from our side of tax reform, maybe add 0.3% additional growth. for us it will not move materially the inflation. the backdrop, look at the latest numbers from the u.s. off,growth leveled inflation expectation on the lower side. in terms of inflation risk, not much around. the phillips curve is pretty flat. if there is no inflation threat, why should we step on the parade heavily, giving a high inflation rate? that is not our picture. an interest-rate by itself does not always determine the currency. it is all about the growth we see globally. maybe for less liquidity, they are willing to do so because earnings look right.
going more broadly be on the u.s., that is what is weakening the dollar. the same place in 2018. betty: a little more dovish than perhaps some houses and how they see the dollar next year. dovish, at the end of 2018 are we going to see the boj the only major central bank still in stimulative mode? i think at least over the next six months, keeping monetary policy unchanged. that makes the yen one of the week currencies and 2018 -- weak currencies in 2018. -- stickinging toqe to qe and its policies makes it a weak currency. in might change as the economy
gets further apace. it has to gear up more in order for the boj to change its threat rate. betty: thank you so much, dominic schnider, head of equities at ubs wealth management. don't forget our interactive tv function, tv . watch us live, catch up on past interviews and dive into securities or bloomberg functions. the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
haslinda amin is following that story. what is the strategy in this expansion? area mufgbout growth is big in japan and looking to be big elsewhere. this acquisition puts an end to months of speculation. buying the stake from the state owned investment company, it will be completed by q3. the price, $1.2 billion for 39% take. -- stake. sinking -- seeking more. they plan to offer cash to their remaining shareholders. but nothing is for sure. remember they had attempted at one point to acquire them in 2013, but that failed. it was blocked from doing that.
it will need the approval from the indonesian government, given there is a 40% limit on foreign ownership. indonesia has been trying to consolidate its banking sector, which has more than 100 lenders. it may able -- may be able to do what they had not been able to. david: that is the picture in indonesia, this is the fairly big transaction. we know they have been busy in southeast asia. why has it seen all of these acquisitions? haslinda: it has been busy. if you take a look at japan, it is a shrinking market for banks like mufg, given the aging population and slowing growth. we need to look at the rest of asia for future growth. we talk about the growth story in this part of the world.
it has been on a buying spree. a 20% stake in security in the philippines with the option to buy even more. is this stake in danamon particular. mufg says of the investment is a crucial milestone for investment in asia. there has been a lot of talk mufg may merge its local unit with danamon. i want to look at the mufg shares. they are up 16% your today. danamon shares surged more than 60% in the same period. pretty good buy for mufg. david: thank you for that update. we are watching shares of mitsubishi later on. let's get a quick check of the latest business headlines with toshiba, which has confirmed it is being sued by foreign institutional investors, seeking inappropriate --
requested damages at more than $291 million. it brings another of suits filed against toshiba. a combined $1.5 billion. raising more than $5 billion through loans bond issued to refinance its debt. it would market their return to the international loan market for the first time in 18 months after selling unprofitable u.k. assets and focusing on india. shares closed 1.5% in mumbai. mumbai,lso surging in finishing this debt restructuring program, borrowing $6 billion. in october there were merger talks. they have been damaged by a vicious price war.
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david: we are half an hour from the open of trading in singapore. this is a live picture. a hot and humid day in the lion city. the monetary authority of singapore came out yesterday with 1%. in a lot of rice pressures the lion city. we will get to the open in 29 minutes. i am david ingles here in hong kong. betty: inflation dogging many countries and economies. i am betty liu in new york. you are watching "daybreak asia ." let's get first word news with jessica summers. jessica: china stepping up scrutiny of overseas fields.
they are planning punishment for companies engaged in unfair competition. china says it will only improve overseas investment projects in line with their development plans. $45ese companies announced billion in offshore purchases this year. regulator ordered a founder of a video service to return home at the end of the year to deal with the company's financial problems. them to provide loans since september, but without success. they made their fortune with the netflix-like company, but did not expand. liquefiedports of natural gas from the u.s. jumped in november in beijing ordered record amounts to be sent to business demand. it surged from nothing the month earlier.
making it the third-largest supplier. it is part of the campaign against pollution. blockchain earned a boost with china using it to buy oil from the middle east. there weretwo applications and smart contracts. -- there were two applications and smart contracts. the technology is touted as potentially saving the commodities sector hundreds of millions of dollars each year. copper has pulled back from its highest in three years after china stepped up the war on pollution by closing processing plants. futures earlier gains, the longest losing streak in over a year. china's leading producer was told on monday to halt output for a week while further pollution assessment was carried out. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: jessica, thank you.
looking at my market boards, it is fairly boring when you look. except for one market. sophie is here to tell us what that market is. sophie: so far giving us moves to discuss this, we have the kospi under pressure, lower for a second day. telecom losing the most since march, 26 seen. corp. energy space, s oil leading that drag. keep in mind it is among the stoxx trading. pulling on the board to check on the biggest laggards, hyundai falling by the most on record. plunging after its forecast for 2018 orders. sinking to a mid-2016 low after announcing its shares. -- wasck was cut the
cut. they believe it will worsen investor sentiment on the entire shipbuilding industry. this on the hyundai heavy plan. let's look at kawasaki in tokyo. that stock is rising, as much earlier as 9.3%. the stock was upgraded to buy at nomura. and another rising to an august high, even though they missed estimates. they are leading the rise in tokyo. david: sophie, thank you for that. let's go to the north. because neighbors are watching. amid warnings that pyongyang may launch another rocket. wednesday is constitution day in north korea. some watchers expect a reaction from kim jong-un.
here is our asia government editor. speed on viewers up to the situation. >> some reports suggest they might launch a satellite or long-range missile over the coming days. you mentioned the holiday they have. another round of u.s. sanctions against the regime, there is a heightened launch for provocation over the holidays. the next big thing we are looking for besides anything they might fire is kim jong-un's annual new year's speech. last year he used that speech to say, we are going to have an icbm that can deliver a nuclear warhead to america by the end of the year. that prompted trump to tweet, know you are not, we are going to stop you. unleashing the war of words
between the two. also doubt that the yuan sanctions or curbs on oil is having the expected result. what is going on here? dan: this is really a process. the united states has pushed china for a full oil embargo. the chinese won't do that. they see it as a destabilizing measure. what we have seen is them slowly tugging the noose on the regime. cut 90% ofround refined oil products. this is gasoline for cars, that kind of thing. they are still letting crude flow into the country. this is a step that measure. when we say unlikely to have much impact on the regime, it is unlikely to have an impact on the elite. the missile program for the military, they will still use the oil. what they will cut out first is
what the ordinary citizens have to use. they will feel the brunt of this so far. is stillnews -- noose tightening. theially, the latest round, regime still has enough oil to keep the missile programs going. betty: dan, thank you so much. let's get the latest on china. they released the latest assessment of the economy. it says recent data offers a warning for 2018 other president xi is less motivated to prop up economic growth. the beigeda curran on book. what is the latest survey telling us? enda: it is warning us we should expect a slower start to the first of the year. a robust your for china.
the beige book is based on anecdotal evidence. it is closely watched by the market. they are seeing a slowdown in employment and manufacturing sectors. and wage gains, too. all of this is reflecting the party congress in october. over that hurdle, there is the expectation that we could take the foot off the gas a little bit. we know we are pushing for that deleveraging campaign. i think it is a bit of a warning, a near-term hard landing -- perhaps expect a more modern -- moderate pace of activity in 2018. reform, theyng of either will or have already published the green index. we can surmise what that will be about. what will be the implication for the economy? enda: the backdrop is, this
index is new. we looked at it yesterday, a gauge of economic development based on environmental considerations. tonese provinces were known try and pursue political growth at all costs, that meant growth at any cost, and led to environmental aggravation. but it is changing. the authorities putting more scrutiny on how the level of growth they're achieving factors into the impact on the environment. beijing doing quite well in certain areas, but poorly overall. we know they have a problem with smog. it is part of a broader push to focus more on sustainable and clean growth, rather than the old, smokestack pollution growth
that drove china in the past. a lot of this pursuit of just growth came down to promotions. now that there is something more tangible we can latch onto when it comes to quality of growth, doesn't mean we will be looking at slower growth? enda: that is the key takeaway, but how much is the question. we had a big push to take coal out of the heating system. but they have realized they can p toyet linked up -- link u all the villages in the country. yes, there is environmental protection, but it will have to be step-by-step. the authorities will not pull a lever, it will be step-by-step. noroving for sure, but in drastic slowing. david: absolutely.
avoid the growth be fueled predominately by expensive credit to the economy. >> one of the advantages and important aspects of deleveraging policy is really to halt the performance. >> this is a tough one. what they have to do is stop building debt to gdp, be willing to accept a lower level of gdp growth, and have confidence that with the growing private sector, they can manage that. >> you still have an economy where debts are growing, double digits, faster than anybody else. twice in gdp. and where the banking system is getting bigger and bigger. the can is being kicked down the road, the can keeps getting larger and larger. david: some very big names on
the state of the chinese economy. governor,rom the pboc had said the country needs to step up its efforts to deleverage. but there are questions over these commitments when it comes to policy. hong said there would be a cost to the campaign next year. listen in. >> we have to sacrifice some growth. we aresame time, probably limiting our options. >> we have seen the selloff in bonds that first started in government, then corporate and equities. but we see a lot of global fund is actually% yield quite attractive and they are coming back in. does it mean this route is over -- rout is over? hao hong: it looks much better
than before. i think we were at 2.8. it has beenally, 4.5% or more. they are quality bond, the first to go when they have to the leverage. it is harder to get rid of. i would say yes, 3.9% is much better. taking a look at your outlooks for 2018 for the shanghai composite, you are thinking it will be pretty sideways, right? between 2900 and 3900 with rotation out of the large caps into the small caps you are saying as zigzags? hao hong: this year, it it did exceedingly well. they outperformed the smaller caps. all of losing 10%, 20% this
year. it takes a bit of time before it changes. they have been making really good money. --nne: is the risk ghigher is the risk higher of getting burnt? market,: in the broad the chinese market actually outperformed. [indiscernible] yvonne: how do you play the small caps space? do you stick with tech? i think in a year, the tech innovation cycle is still going on. tech stocks are outside of china. within china, we see some leaders talk about this segment.
i would stick with the leaders, the true innovators. those are the easy targets people can choose from. yvonne: we have seen reports the chinese security watchdogs are saying they need to limit how many hong kong stocks they can put in their portfolio. not allowing them to put all of gs in one basket. do they need the hang seng to stay at these levels? how big is the risk? hear the as soon as we winds of change, they start doing well. speaking towas azn. yvonne man. don't forget our interactive tv function, tv . watch us live, catch up on past interviews and divedon't forgetv
hong kong set to lose its ranking as the busiest port. profits dropped, making hong kong only one of the top five. they are closing the gap and bloomberg intelligence expects it to pass hong kong on an annual basis and 2018. fosun group's looking into studio 8. insurancen conglomerate has posted its day, as well as financing. the in mind fosun but studio three years ago and values it currently at about $1 billion. betty: the latest star wars movie led the north american box office at the weekend, though demand was disappointing. the last jedi took $100 million. ticket sales were down.
that decline is the second worst seen by any star wars movie. box office gross as part of the drop is due to christmas eve falling on sunday this year. david: that is down. when you look at markets across the asian pacific, the nikkei, the south korean kospi index, not very exciting. a lot of rumblings in the south korean market today, a lot of these shipbuilding stocks, down 27%. the third biggest drop on record on the back of fundraising activities. the stock is that -- asx 200 up 0.25%. we are getting fairly light volumes coming through. oil, following where the oil price is, closer to $60 in west texas. when we do get brent up and running we might just see $68
because of what happened in libya. betty: that is right. oil prices are what helped support the markets here in the u.s. we will be watching closely some of the tech shares. we saw apple fall over 2%. that of course being affected by with the asian suppliers. willie watching companies in taiwan. david: absolutely. samsung in the mix. jay y. lee in court appealing his sentence for corruption. prosecutors make their case. a judge will make a final ruling in the new year. let's bring in our asia managing editor for tech, peter elstrom. good morning. what are we expecting from this appearance? peter: the appeals process has been going on for a while. expecting prosecutors to
request the longer prison term for jay y. lee. they are appealing august, sentenced to five years in prison. prosecutors think it is too lenient, they're asking for something longer. initially they asked for 12 years. jay y. lee is appealing, saying stiff, and intoo fact, he is not guilty of any accusations. david: we were having this conversation months ago when he was going through this legal process and there were concerns over samsung. how was the company done? peter: the company has been doing really well. they had a great year, shares are up 35%. it is not just the smartphone business. they are bouncing back from this fiasco they had from the note phone that was bursting into flames. beyond that, their chips business is strong, generating tons of money for them. and they are selling oled screens to apple for the new iphone x. betty: but the south korean
chaebol, the lotte group, the chairman was sent to jail. how is the government's corruption crackdown going? peter: you see a real shift in the administration. the president of south korea had the stuff down because of accusations against her for corruption. now under the new president moon, we see a new stance toward the chaebol. he appointed to the korea fair trade commission one of the leading chaebol critics. he has gone after samsung and other big companies. we see him step up efforts to look at some of the things these companies have done for many years. he is going after them more aggressively. betty: thank you, peter elstrom, our asia managing editor. that is it on "daybreak asia." a quick look at what is coming
up on bloomberg markets. what are you watching today? >> we have this national includingin china, central bank governors, all up in the air as to what might happen with the current incumbent. a look at all of that. and our asia pacific senior market analyst looking at the -- at whater of 2018 the first quarter of 2018 will entail. and we have second and third tier data. inflation numbers also coming out. we have been yesterday. digesting the implications for what happens equity-wise and for trading. the head ofhat with asia fixed income in about an hour.
taking a look at the recent actions of bond markets and where is that at the moment. does that have implications when it comes to equity investing? and his of the bond market ultimately, or those involved in equities? last but not least, the chief economist. just a flavor of the things on the way. he is on and about 45 minutes from now. betty: a lot happening. that is it from "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ is this a phone?
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