tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg January 17, 2018 10:00pm-11:00pm EST
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we speak this -- with the ceo of the world's biggest mutual fund. market, cutting back on plans for billions of additional borrowing. no shortage of news today. the gdp number from china later on this afternoon, but here is the markets. treading water, we have given up a lot of gains this morning on the regional benchmark, but we are still seeing mostly green across major markets today. the nikkei 225 in focus. it broke above 24,000 at one point, the highest since 1991. we are slightly off that now. perhaps what is pouring cold water on the rally, the pickup some boj members are set to say it is time for normalization. look at the yield, slightly lower right now.
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at one point, it rose to the highest since july. a slightly stronger, ahead of those gdp numbers. weiland markets right now, are seeing ties stocks up about one third of 1%. a lot of focus has been on that -- as china says they will curb. india looks to be a green day. the rupee seeing strength at 63.89. haslinda: taking a look at currencies, the aussie weakening after rising to four-month highs versus the greenback on risk on at 111.29, up 3% versus the dollar since november. investor interest in japan stocks. bitcoin on a trip down. people are beginning to ask what does bitcoin and dot-coms have in common?
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that plunge spooking some investors. we stay prepared for the worst. we get more on the markets later on. on to theet's get first word news. rose china's home prices in the most cities in six months in december even as the government prolonged a campaign to curb property speculation. rose and 70 cities tracked by the government compared with 50 in november. isis fell in seven cities from the previous month and were unchanged in six. officials are trying to control home prices without triggering a property slump. bitcoins wild start to 2018 has below $10,000 before rallying to stay unchanged. the gyrations across a trading
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range of more than $2700 over 18 hours. this low point pushed past 50%, but bitcoin is still up 1000% from a year ago. about $30 billion in tax on hundreds of billions of overseas dollars it is bringing back to the u.s.. is also promising $30 billion in capital expenditure over five years, creating 20,000 new jobs at existing sites and a new campus it intends to open. tim cook says apple is in focus -- focusing investments on job creation and preparedness. toshiba has jumped after agreeing to sell claims in its westinghouse eunice to bolter capital by 3.7 billion dollars. that should avoid being delisted after-tax profit, they expect wanted to have billion dollars from the deal. the deal to sell memory chips may not close by march. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700
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journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen, this is bloomberg. thank you for that. china is expected to reveal a year of economic acceleration when it reports annual gdp figures later on thursday. -- currently having expanded 6.8% on year, although it has been reported tipping 6.9%. will the chief -- the chief economic list asia joins us. it does look like it has been leaked. 6.9%. it is a debate between him and market economists on how fast china grew. i will put my money on him being correct. he has probably seen the data already. that said, 6.8%, 6.9%, this is not a huge difference.
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both numbers point to an acceleration from 2016. first growth since 2010, comfortably above the 6.10 part -- target. it will be a positive data release. apart from the headlines, what else are we looking for when those gdp numbers come out? a coupleink there are of things we will be trying to delve into. the first is the pace of nominal growth. how fast is the economy growing in current prices? , it hasterms accelerated from 6.7, to 6.9% but in nominal terms, it has accelerated a lot, from 6% to 11%. that is critical, because faster nominal growth drives industry, more tax revenue, earnings growth for households. that makes paying down debt easier to do. it makes it easier to deal with
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china's debt. beyond the headline gdp growth number, we are also going to be paying attention to that nominal gdp growth number. a slowdown there, that will take some positive edge off the data. yvonne: we saw an improved picture in the property market, as well. does this give more upside to growth this year, despite the deleveraging campaigns and property curves? yeah, the property numbers this morning, the price data looks somewhat positive. price is increasing in a larger number of cities. i think the remarkable thing about china's property market is the type of mismatch between what we see from an economic macro level and the mood we see on the street. the mood we see from china's property buyers. if we look at the macro numbers, there is alarming oversupply in china's property market, and that suggests a pessimistic outlook. it suggests prices have to come
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down to bring supply in line with demand. if we look at the mood in property showrooms, talk to china's households, we see unchecked optimism on the outlook for china's property sector and if that -- it is that optimism from buyers which remains dominant. even if we have a slowdown in 2018, it will be a moderate slowdown. that seems to be the case. going through other headlines we have through from china, the treasury holdings falling to a four-month low. even when we see 11 straight months of increase, do we put much weight on this issue or story, tom? tom: i think what has happened with china's treasury holdings is not really geopolitics, not a strategy by china to put pressure on donald trump in one way or another, it is really just a change in the way china
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manages its exchange rate. in the past, the yuan faced one-way appreciation pressure and the government had to buy u.s. treasuries to lean against that yuan appreciation pressure. in the last few years, we see the yuan goes up and down and the government is more about the market playing the leading role in moving the currency. that means we don't have accumulation of fx reserves or accumulation automatically of u.s. treasuries and that is what we are seeing in the data. inis not some change geopolitical strategy. it is not the use of fx reserves as a doomsday threat to the u.s., it is just a change in the way managed -- china manages its exchange rate and the path toward fx river -- reserves and treasury purchases. yvonne: speaking of treasury holdings by china, i want to bring up this chart. haslinda: it says treasury curved drop.
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thee is always alarm in market when there is indication china may cut down its treasury purchases. can other countries like japan pick up the slack? that is a good question. china and japan are the two giants when it comes to foreign purchases of u.s. treasuries. for china, i think the question remains more about management of the exchange rate rather than some kind of change in geopolitical strategy. whenigger picture is that expectations of the federal and the tax cut from the trump administration could lead ofthe me -- mean the lead more treasury financing. the markets will be on edge and any china -- signs in change of behavior by big buyers, china and japan have the potential to send ripples through the
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♪ this is bloomberg markets, asia. i'm haslinda amin. yvonne: a quick look at the headlines. for the first time in more than decade, goldman sachs is worse -- worth less than morgan stanley, after reporting a 50% plunge in bond trading, market capitalization felt a 99.4 billion dollars at the close.
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octoberp a streak since 2006. it has been a rough year for goldman, long considered the envy of wall street. haslinda: the largest asset manager blackrock is offering staff unlimited time off. the company wants to provide a benefit considered appealing to younger workers used to more casual and flexible environments. the ceo transformed blackrock into a more tech focused firm. says the move should help it compete against silicon valley rivals. tiffany posted a rebound in holiday sales, helped by new accessories like $90 pencil holders and $450 rulers. 3% in the final two months of 2017. the pencil holders and rulers sold out online, but higher priced products are still available, including a $9,000 sterling silver ball of yarn. [laughter] wow, yvonne.,
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a small shift is taking place in discussions among bank of japan policy makers. according to people familiar with talks, minority group is raising the need to start discussing policy normalization. my next guest believes a shift in market sentiment in the boj could send the yen significantly higher. let's bring in nader naeimi, head of dynamic markets. he is betting on the yen to gain. he joins us from sydney. a pretty different call on the yen, going long there. why is that? nader: the strategy over the past few years has been to short the yen on the back of aggressive policy easing by the to have noappeared
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end because the boj was well below the inflation target. boj you look at what the has targeted in terms of buying 80 trillion worth of qe program versus what they actually have done, which is about 40 or so, there is already some tapering taking place. why? because they can't buy any more, number one. there is not enough supply for them to buy. number two, they don't need to anymore. japan is coming out of a the last twoperiod decades. unemployment is fairly low, growth is on the way up. for thoseo need open-ended quantitative easing programs. when you put it all together and look at the valuation of begin -- the yen, very cheap.
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soonerft, any change than expected will send the yen much higher from the current levels. out of deflation, but still sluggish growth and you have negative yields. and surely, if oil prices keep going up, it will weigh on the economy. agree.yeah, i but if you look at the fundamental improvements in the that kind ofomy, qe which was aggressive when -- deflation was a threat -- now is no longer required. he also look at -- we have the boj meeting coming in a few days. that will be the first time in four years where the boj won't
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need to cut their foe cap -- forecast. that will be a shift in monetary policy. ondoesn't mean it will go tightening, it just means they don't need to ease as much as they have. and market pricing toward the yen is pricing for the boj being the last central bank to think about normalizing policy, meaning the ecb -- euro has had massive strength because of the belief of the european economy growing. there is the need for normalization. when you look at japan, that hasn't been priced in yet. it will be a 2018 story, when yen will strengthen against the when a lot of that central change attitude has been priced in. yvonne: isn't this pickup and yields -- we are seeing a synchronized one, not just with europe, but the u.s. as well.
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given the fact that it is unlikely the yields will narrow, doesn't that give -- seem premature to be long yen at the moment? at the costu look of the -- on the short end of the u.s., rates have jumped. for any japanese investor, buying u.s. treasuries and hedging it is becoming more costly. in fact, it is better to put the money in japanese bonds. there would be more need for repatriation of capital from japanese investors into their own country because the cost is a lot higher. we talk about global equities also. we are in a phase in the market where euro correction is probably pretty high. not only is yen a great
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standalone because it is undervalued and we are seeing a shift in central-bank attitude, but it is a currency we will see repatriation of capital in the case of a risk off environment. yen will benefit in that kind of risk off environment. yvonne: at what point -- where are we in terms of yields before this starts to become a headwind for equities? notr: first of all, it is surprising yields are going up. for the past few years, with thought yields -- we thought yields were going up, but they become a head fake. the first time yields are breaking out because inflation is coming. first of all, with growth improving, you want to get to a level of nominal gdp growth.
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in the u.s., as bond yield gets over three levels, that becomes a little concerned but not too much. 3.5 has a level that would concern equity market investors. haslinda: the boj said earlier today that it thinks the markets are getting ahead of themselves. what is your response to that? nader: that's right. they do worry about if market sentiment changes toward the yen, but markets are not. look at the balance sheet. the target was for 80 trillion of purchases in qe program. they have done about 30, 40. if you look from the peak of the qe program to where they are now in terms of asset purchases, there is already tapering happening. i don't see markets getting
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ahead of themselves. the market is not paying enough attention to it, but the central bank would need to make sure a disorderlyt rally in the yen, which could stretch recovery in japan. appreciation,y the yen is in the cards for the next three months. empinda: the head of capital investors, we thank you for your insight. still to come, the world's biggest mutual fund has big plans for growth in china. our interview with the chairman next.
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investment as he explores opportunities in china. bill: i am not sure yet, but i think it means to us that there is a lot of opportunity for what i would call low-cost investing. there is still a lot of high cost product in the asian markets and whether it is passive or low-cost active, you can make a case for both. you will likely see us doing both. --the likes of philip fidelity are lowering their fees, becoming more competitive. what changes are you seeing in the fund management industry? for the first time, there is widespread belief that price matters and their are a couple of things driving back. one is our success. blackrock's success in the etf space. people aren't just coming to us because we are lower cost, they are coming because the net return to investors is the whole driver of the cost argument. people are awakened to this and the data are overwhelming.
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you can't just -- if you are a active fund, you charge 100 basis points, you have very low probability of outperforming over the long run. money management has been a lucrative profession for active managers and it will get less lucrative. i don't know what to say except people have to get smarter about how they loan money. there there are --tom: are skeptics out there who say this huge embrace of passive investing poses a significant risk to the markets. how do you of -- defend against that? bill: the data don't support it. investing has provided is better returns in a risk controlled way. if you think about it, it is a zero-sum game at the end of the day. the only difference in returns is cost. i think the cost differential is the only thing that is driving the growth of indexing. that was not always the case and is not the case in every market. there is markets where
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a big retail presence, where the investor owns a huge part of the equity market overall. active managers will do really well in those markets. in particular, if they are low-cost. it is not a zero-sum game. the source of all for will come will come -- alpha from those investors. i will also say to the set -- incomes that because providers are long-term in outlook, it is much better for the economy and much better for corporate governance. i think it reduces the risk rather than increases it. haslinda: vanguard chairman and withill mcnabb speaking tom mackenzie. speaking of exclusive interviews, we have lots more interviews. for me live in davos extensive coverage of the world lotsmic forum, and we have
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>> the lion city taking a breather from the rain, but still clouds out there. we are in the middle of the trading day. taking a look at the sti, reversing yesterday's slump. it posted its biggest gain in and looks last year, to do more. >> as you know, temperatures in hong kong edging to slightly higher. not as warm and hot as singapore, but we did have some warnings in the government yesterday about air quality risks may reach serious levels.
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30 minutes until we see japan come back to markets. haslinda: you are watching "bloomberg markets: asia." let's get to the first word with paul allen. paul: trump to fire tweeted a link to what he calls the 2017 take news awards, the link to the gop.com blog site initially awards come up the page went off-line moments later. republican senator jeff flake said the president was in bolding authoritarian leaders by dismissing the coverage of his administration as fake news. >> the enemy of the people was how the president of the united states called the free press in 2017. mr. president, it is a testament to the condition of our
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democracy that our own president uses words infamously spoken by joseph stalin to describe his enemies. us trillion employment surged while the jobless rate ticked up as more people look for work. employment rose by almost 35,000 from november, almost doubled again forecast by economists. back,ime jobs roared starting to soak up the lackluster growth and inflation. china's holding a treasuries fell to a four-month low in november, a sign that china may becoming it appetite for u.s. government debt. holding of u.s. bond notes and bills fell from a month earlier. china's treasury holdings are attracting extra attention now from bloomberg news reporters last week. the beijing was considering tapering its purchases. north and south korea will march under one unified flag during the opening ceremony of next month plus winter look at, the strongest sign yet of an easing
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in recent tensions. i have not marched together at an international sporting event since 2007 -- they have not marched together at an international sporting event since 2007. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts from more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. >> thank you so much for that. speaking of korea, i want to touch on them. alarm bells are ringing simply because it is gaining to psychological levels. i want to bring up this chart. the one having risen 6% on trade-weighted basis. nine versusls are the yuan, 1000 versus the dollar. job running on monday came as the one new psychological levels
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as they were threatening exports. the yuan has been rising. >> 6%. what a run. >> it certainly is. it is a cause for concern for the bank of korea. it was really the guidance coming through from the governor during the press conference saying they still think inflation is going to be below their 2% target for 2018. you have soft inflation, the strengthening yuan, very difficult to continue on this tightening path. the majority of the analysts we survey think it is going to be more about a q2 story if not later. >> when will it happen? speaking of central banks, the federal bank is in no rush to raise rates, but it does have something to fret about at its [inaudible]g
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good to have you with us. this is not so much about rates, but about rice. the price of rice in indonesia has been rising. >> yes, that's right. as you say, it is something new for the central bank to worry about. inflation was largely benign last year, but rice has risen 6.1% since november, prompting the government to actually import 500,000 tons to try to counter thosend price rises. of course, rice being quite a vicar this ingredient in meals in indonesia. people eat it every day nearly every meal. -- a bitenefit concern of a concern as they go into the first policy meeting of the year today. >> certainly a staple for many meals all over the region.
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but what about growth? these interest rate cuts we have seen over the past seat years -- has it had any impact? >> we will get a better picture of that in the first week of february when we see the gross domestic product because for all it must bet so far, leading central bankers to kind of scratch their heads because growth really -- they are expecting the fourth quarter to probably be the strongest quarter of 2017, but really, growth is struggling to get above 5%. while most economies would be happy with a number like that, for indonesia, that is quite low in historical terms. they are quite worried, expected you to pick up to maybe 5.3% next year, maybe as high as 5.5%, but a lot of economists are thinking probably indonesia's growth number will remain around 5%.
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also consumer spending, even though consumer confidence has been rising. they are not spending the money. why is that and what can the government do to reverse the situation? >> that is a mystery, too. cuts,fter all those rate confidence, as you point out, is rising and hit a record mark in december, but retail sales are soabout 2%, growth of 2%, it's leaving policymakers a little bit puzzled, and do they have room for more cuts? with interest rates rising elsewhere in the u.s., of course indonesia andeave policymakers in a bit of a dilemma. they may have to think about raising rates at some point in the future themselves. that does not leave a lot of room to try to get people spending. >> thank you so much for that.
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>> this is "bloomberg markets asia." >> china's home prices rose the most in six months in december despite continuing government cuts aimed at reining in property speculation. joins us correspondent from beijing with the details. what are the key takeaways here? in 57 outices rising of the 70 cities that are tracked by the chinese government as compared to 50 in pricesr, and you saw
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rising their fastest in seven months. that's pointing to this divergent picture we are starting to see now between top-tier cities like beijing, shanghai, and shenzhen, and smaller cities. you have the chart that shows what has been going on since 2012. up until this point, you will .ee that big pickup the white line is the top-tier cities really surging on double-digit price rises in 2015, and then you start to see it edge lower, dipping down and now prices rising in these major cities, below the prices we are seeing. that would be welcome to some degree by policymakers because many of the smaller towns and cities had excess inventory and there was a process in place to try to draw down some of this, but we will also continue to hear very likely from regulators, from authorities
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that they will focus on restraining what they say is speculation in the property markets. despite these pickups in prices, there is a consensus here that the view from authorities is they want to avoid this bubble continuing or a bubble blowing up in the property sector. we heard from the likes of the property sector and an analyst talking earlier on the show saying despite those attempts from regulators and enthusiasm around the prices, you could see price rises in 2018 very likely, possibly also for the next three to five years and certainly, the property stocks buying into this. china, country garden holdings have had a recording start for 2018 as if you the sales are going to pick the sales process, are going to do pretty well, restrictions in the north part of china, seeing some easing around the property curves, but this is a mixed view from economists as to if the property
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.ectors continue to power ahead this also a few you may get sector consolidation that is going to favor some of the big players out there. >> thank you. let's discuss more of this with the chairman of portland capital who joins us in our hong kong studio. thank you for joining us. what is your take on these numbers? it seems like the mood is still quite upbeat. >> it is still pretty bullish on chinese real estate, but barren mind, there is a huge range of conditions across the country. i think the biggest range we have ever seen in 20, 25 years of history, and i think it is also worth bearing in mind that china is now in its third property cycle since the global financial crisis. everywhere us in the world, we have only had one cycle, we are in the third. those numbers show very big differences in price performance between two or 1, 22, and tier three cities. what we are seeing, though, is a
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bit of a slowdown in the growth metrics across china. >> we're going to see a pick up and prices the next couple of years. the issue they are seeing is land undersupply. this has been going for years now and we are not really seeing signs of a turnaround. >> i would have a slightly different view on that because i think you have seen on the national average prices go growth of about 10% in 2016. average growth across the country today is about 5%. we are also seeing a slowdown on housing starts. we are seeing a slowdown in actual volumes of sales in recent months. what is picking up, however, is the volume of land sales, but numbers you are seeing from developers, last year property sales were very, very high. we saw earnings growth of 20% to 25%. we also saw contracted sales
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which will show up in next year's earnings. up 15% to 20% higher than expected. >> i was just going to go to that. oh chart talks about some of these properties. it seems like it is two different worlds. you tracked them with home prices and what we see from some of the developers in china. you mentioned china resources. 200% jump in sales. why do you think there is a disconnect? >> it's very dramatic across the year, but on average across the top 35 or 40 companies last year, they actually had an increase of sales of about 20% above what they forecast, so that bodes very well for 2018 earnings because those sales will actually get reflected and 2018, 2019 earnings. from that point the view, i think we're still in a very positive trend as far as earnings with the developer community is concerned.
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these stocks still trading at steep discounts to underlying asset values, giving you a dividend yield on average of the .2%, 3.4 percent, so from that point of view, they are still a reasonably attractive asset class and still be third cheapest sector in china. i think banks are still cheaper than property stocks, but just about everything else is more expensive. >> you say the general theme in the market is deceleration, but there is a fine line. if property is such an important sector for the chinese economy, accounting for 20% of gdp, as much as china wants to slowdown down its property market, it .eally needs this capital >> that is absolutely correct. it is walking a very tight rope here, balancing the risk of a bubble, which will create all sorts of financial problems in the country, and secondly, as you say, the property sector
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80% of gdp, so the last thing they want to see is a crash in the property sector which will create problems for the banking sector and also national gdp. having to balance this risk of trying to slow down property bubbles and slow down the excesses in lending to the property sector but not create such a sharp downturn that it creates a financial crisis and also possibly creates a negative impact on gdp. talk about property, we have to talk about hong kong, awash with capital, awash with cash. that could only mean property prices are going up despite efforts to rein in prices. is that correct? >> that is correct. in hong kong, we are in a slightly different position. we are, however, seeing some certain trends in hong kong which between slowdown on property prices.
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firstly, the hong kong interbank rates, which is what a lot of properties are based off, has risen about 50 points in recent months, so that will increase the cost of mortgages. we're expecting it to raise another three times this year, so that will further increase the cost of mortgage. affordability is already very stretched. you are starting to see a little bit of a build up an inventory being held by developers, and you are starting to see completions actually increase significantly. completions for years ago were 60% below the long-term average. they are now about 30% below the long-term average. land sales and completions are picking up, which will fill that supply gap we have had in recent years. >> what about the need for rental yields? have we seen rents pick up with prices? >> prices have picked up much more than rent in the cycle, which means rental yields have
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come down, but that is consistent with what we see around the world where you see interest rates at record low levels. around thekets world, you look at the u.k., germany, australia, new zealand, america, we are seeing the same pattern, but i think we will see as interest rates picked up, that cycle reverse, whereas rents will perhaps say stable pricesstay stable and may come down. >> we had a story yesterday talking about ex-pats and the rising rent they see in cities like hong kong and singapore. hong kong takes the cake for now, but how are you seeing the singapore market price now? >> singapore is in a very different position than hong kong and china. it is right at the end of a bear market. we have seen household incomes over the last five or six years
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grow about 25%, 26%, whereas prices are down 7% to 10%, 11%. affordability is a lot better. you are also seeing the excess is disappearing and we are seeing stronger demand and less supply. uptick,we will see an so get in there now. you seeing the market coming back to life? >> yes, it certainly is in singapore. you have already seen that reflected in property stocks in singapore. they had a very good run last year, but the property market is is only justf starting to pick up. already, property stocks have reflected that expectation of an improving environment and property. bear in mind that singapore is a
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different market from hong kong and china. singapore's property market sector is largely dominated by real estate investment trusts, which are different from the property developer seen we have seen in hong kong and china, so there's a different dynamic in the list of space in singapore. property is at very sensitive issue, especially in the lion city. thank you so much for that. >> still to come, india says it plans to cut ties for additional .orrowing the outlook for bonds up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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they helping as we see a report that india is considering raising the limit on foreign investment on both state run and private banks. want to check in on some other companies that are due to report earnings. ivanka: indian stocks have hit multiple records in the face of corrections fears, some still see value. >> it looks like they are playing catch-up when it comes to the growth picture. and after the better than this currentings, earnings season, that will set the path ahead given that we are seeing a slowdown in the pace of downgrades. .heck this out
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indian stocks may be among the priciest in asia trading at 3.2 times book value, but you can see here that their premium to asian stocks is now at the narrowest in about a year. infinite finance admits it is very uncomfortable with the run, which is backed by a billionaire, staying that long indian equities even with a chance of a significant correction happening at any time . >> speaking of india, it is cutting back on planned additional borrowing for the current fiscal year, providing relief to the nation's sovereign bond market. yields fall on wednesday by the most in more than a year. take us through what is happening. in the bloodbath we saw in the
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fixed income of last year. >> there has been a really rough .atch for indian bonds the yield on the benchmark bond has risen for five straight , which is kind of the longest streak in about three days. it has been very volatile. periodee the shortened for this week, bonds, massive .elloff on tuesday governor said the regulator , which are out banks the biggest holder of securities and losses due to the rising yields. a massive rally
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after the government declared it would cut back on traditional borrowings. overall, it has been a very volatile year for sovereign bonds. >> what is the outlook for bonds going forward than? >> the outlook still remains very cautious. we saw a rally yesterday. , the into the budget outlook still remains very cautious. the market is worried the government may go into a wider deficit this year, which means the income back to the market with excessive supply of bonds, that is the main reason worrying the bond market players, and at the top of that, we have surging oil prices and global bond use hardening, so all in all, it is like a perfect storm.
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>> thank you for that. well, that is it for us. "bloomberg markets middle east" is up next. do not miss their exclusive interview with the qatar national bank ceo. >> that is definitely one we will watch. before we go, though, roses are red -- i've got to do this -- violets are blue. nestle is getting in on the act, withead of valentine's day red chocolate. the company is launching ruby kick cats in japan just in time for february 14. s the company is launching ruby in japan. i think it is kind of cute. >> i'm undecided. i like some of the flavors have launched in recent years like was savvy chocolate. this ruby color is actually
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alisa: i'm alisa alisa parenti in washington and you are watching "bloomberg technology to come let's start with a check of your first word news. jerome powell is one step further towards the coming chairman of the central bank. the senate banking committee has approved powell's nomination. puerto rico is a risk of not receiving federal community disaster loans because it's cash balances may be too high. the federal emergency management agency says it will not provide additional recovery aid until the territory falls below a certain level. the government was predicted to run out of money in late
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