tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 16, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EST
vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: here are the top stories we are covering, european stocks rise, their best week in one year with u.s. shares higher after fluctuating earlier. today, negotiators want more clarity from britain on what kind of relationship it wants with e.u. after brexit. chiefk with the siemens executive joe kaeser about ray galliano -- rate elio -- ray dalio's sure on the company. after a worse week in two years, the benchmark european gauge up.
last week, it fell 5%. the three-week losing run seems to be coming to a finish. sovereign bond yields, commodities. the difference between long and short data yields in european government bonds, investors say it will narrow this year, similar to -- global investors benefiting from a finding in the bunker, the german 5-30 year spread trading to the lowest level since 2016 led by increases in the shorter amid expectations the ecb will raise rates in the next year or so for the first time since 2011. by atrended is abetted inflation limiting the increase in longer-term yields. a wonderful chart. this is another wonderful chart, u.s. dividend payouts may have
lost their luster as 10 year treasury bond yields advanced to multi-year highs. some say approaching a threshold , a pain threshold for equities. europe, however, holds the theard with companies in stoxx 600 offering dividend yields and the 6.3% is the blue line, the highest among main markets across the globe. close to 300 basis points above the german ten-year government bond. allianz, the insurer with a record year, financial disaster insurance claims, not enough to stop them from raising its dividend. sticking with a plan to return cash to shareholders and shares up 4/10 of 1% today, europe's biggest insurer and they end -- increase the dividend last year by 5.2% eight euros -- 5.3% to eight --
euros. shares in alianza today at 4/10 of 1%. 90 minutes into the session in the u.s.. what is it looking like? >> modest gains for the major averages for the dow, s&p 500, nasdaq modestly higher with gains of greater than 2/10 of 1% after mixed trading, small moves to the downside, between small gains and losses. days of gainser with the major averages on pace for a six update in a row -- of d -- up day in a row. face -- hundred and on s&p 500 on pace for its best week since 213. -- 2013/
. these are the technicals, the s&p 500, the 208 moving average -- 200 day rising moving average in orange, rising. dip investors are moving into the near-term, supporting the index. this is the percentage of stocks above the 200 day moving average , which had dropped dramatically during the two weeks of selloffs and now gaining. there is something precarious, suggesting maybe the gains this week could reverse into more volatility to the downside. we could see a move similar to what happened in 2015 and 2016. a possible trigger, this chart fascinates me. i have a technical background.
the technicians come in and many of us have been talking about the possibility of the 10 year .ield, this is g #btv 3599 a macro strategist speaks of this, pointing out the possibility, it has been in the chart for some time. we are looking at the longer-term monthly chart, the double bottom, the two rounded itas confirms above 3%, means we could see an equal and opposite reaction to the upside towards for .5% to the tenure -- year.o the 10 a normalization the fed would not want to see, faster than expected. something to keep in mind. that would suggest the great bond market could come to an end. mark: thank you. after two weeks of selling off,
u.s. stocks could have the best week in five years, back to were we were -- back to where we were when we started. is nick watson of henderson global investors limited. you trimmed your equity exposure in mid-january. have you been adding to it given the recent volatility? >> we have rebuilt those positions we reduced in january. because the end of spring in 2017, you saw a range of asset classes supercharged by positive growth and low inflation. and qe continuing. this year, it felt like they were getting complacent with extremeweather the -- levels of enthusiasm for stocks and we wanted to bank profits. mark: which part of the market are you getting into? >> we think europe is interesting, particularly with the u.s. equity markets.
since 2011, earnings growth has been flat in the european market where u.s. has a decent profit margins. some of the selloffs to build by positions in europe and areas such as the u.k. market, ftse 100 has been pretty weak. through this rally over the past week, u.s. is doing well led by tech stocks. europe has gets a potential been -- catch a potential -- europe has catch a potential. vonnie: are you hoping for a quick buck? >> we are not short-term. we have the flexibility to support -- we are more constructive going forward and if you look at the global economic backdrop, there are positive standpoint and positive activity on a global basis. you want more cyclic kelly in your equity exposures. japan, a policy story.
and corporate reform. those are areas you want more cyclical. vonnie: your impressions on this, last week was a great week if you have 60% stocks and 40% bonds. chart 3420. but it is volatile. i am curious, after all this time in the markets, you are still constructive on a 60-40 balance as you may have been in the beginning? >> it is an interesting approach. not something we subscribe to. we want to look at further fields and diversified exposure. vonnie: how much of that would be stocks? >> one of our multi-manager portfolios we would describe as balance, 50% of equities at the moment.
that is our benchmark. 20% in fixed income, 10% underweight. mutual cash. infrastructure, property a nice way to diversify. mark: an interesting story in the last week has been ray dalio , his $22 billion short position on european bonds. he has a gauge to see whether a market is overpriced and maybe should be sold. witht a strong economy strong unemployment, what do you think of his short? he seems to be on his own. >> we can describe $22 billion as a big bet. interesting when you see hedge fund managers talk about their positions as you never know what is in the views. we had a long tilt towards what we try to do. we are not trying to deliver absolute returns.
, there arety markets areas where you see relatively stretched valuations. articulate with growth versus value -- particularly with growth versus value, you have not seen value come back in the bonds your. mark: why? >> if you think about dividend struggledidend yield with this rising bond environment. sold off in sympathy to fixed income. it is a tough one. i refer to the opera's rations about europe -- observations about europe. relatively attractive valuations and europe is playing catch-up. mark: how do you manage volatility? given we saw a big rise in volatility last week. it has come back down. as it often does. is it here now and how do you manage it? in 2017, positive growth, tv,
low inflation, a great environment to be invested. a range of asset classes performed really well. 2018 has a slightly different dynamic. over the last six weeks, more of what we will see going forward. to a degree it is making sure our portfolio is balanced with region equities. a range of fixed income equity -- equities. instances, react to market news and get diversified exposures through what we trying to do. mark: he has weather the storm better than may -- many have suggested. does that give us an indication of how key welfare during the rising desk will fair are in your rising u.s. rate environment? >> the challenge that emerging markets will face is that we have had rising rates environment over the last couple of.
the 10-year selloff. you have had a weak dollar at the same time. think, if you look at the long-term trend, a great time with developed markets performing economically more strongly that emerging markets. that is starting to go back up over the past two years. through that time, good developed market growth with struggles, underweight asset classes we built positions back in at the start of 2016. that has worked out nicely for our portfolios but emerging markets have performed quite well in the rally and more so than people expected with the bigger challenge as you see a stronger dollar. mark: do you think we will? correlations have broken down, higher rates, higher dollar. what is causing that? >> we say no. people try to explain what is happened to the dollar and why it is weak in this environment with inflation surprises and higher rates. beuppose the bear case would
to focus on the physical story in america. late cycle fiscal expansion, tax cuts, the deficit being removed. a more cautious outlook but a more constructive one is reducing the dollar as a safe haven currency and funding other investments off the back about. you could say the dollar weakness -- assets moving into europe or emerging markets. if it was finally balanced, today we had stronger dollar, particularly compared to sterling which has been weaker. mark: thank you for joining us. nick watson of henderson global investors limited. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news with courtney donohoe. >> former republican presidential candidate mitt romney has made it official, running for the senate from utah. he says his goal is to serve the people of utah and bring utah values to washington, hoping to replace orrin hatch who is retiring. president trump goes to florida
where he says he will meet with some of the greatest people on earth. he will meet with the families of the victims of the parkland, school shooting. withys he is working congress on many fronts but did not give specifics. congress approving a broad immigration deal this year or all but dead. the senate rejected a white house back plan and a bipartisan proposal to deal with 1.8 million young, undocumented immigrants as republicans say there may be an attempt to temporarily keep them from being deported. sentiment in the u.s. unexpectedly rose this month to the second highest level since 2004. according to a university of michigan survey, tax cuts and strong job market helping americans shrug off market volatility. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe here in this is bloomberg. -- i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. mark: we will tell you what is
♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i am mark barton. the european close in roughly 13 minutes. theresa may meets angela merkel in berlin today, the u.k. under pressure to reveal more details about their relationship it wants with the eu after brexit. joining us -- both leaders facing troubles of a similar nature. given angela merkel has to give so much in the recent coalition
talks, is she in a position to move negotiations with theresa may forward? >> yes, i think she is in a position. all of the troubles she had, she always made clear that germany had to be stable in order to play its role on the international stage. that is what she gets today here yes, she is ready to talk to britian,- written -- but she will talk for the whole european union and not just germany. mark: we are watching live the chancellor speaking in german in a news conference with theresa may. earlier this year we heard from sources that she was getting frustrated with theresa may wanting the eu to offer something before theresa may put
forward her own exit position. the you think the chancellor will get anything out of the u.k. prime minister when it comes to the u.k. and what it wants from this process? may willot know what offer but i am pretty sure the message of angela merkel will be clear, exactly what the eu has has to make britian up its mind what kind of relationship it wants, does it want a close relationship to the internal market? if it does, it has to be clear that free trade agreement, that will probably not work. tois more appealing to may take a clear stance, which he has not done so far. vonnie: chancellor merkel is saying we want to hold to the
brexit timeframe and the time is short. is there a message that is being passed from one leader to the other in this meeting? message definitely a which has to be passed from one leader to the other and angela merkel is speaking for the european union and will make mantra has been that europe cannot be divided. that is what is the mantra for the future. she will speak for the eu. vonnie: is this being seen as an effort by theresa may to make things more collegial with the european colleagues? or does it look like she is trying to drag in the chancellor? things did not go so well with france and she is moving on to germany, perhaps. >> she had quite a few encounters with angela merkel and she will know that she cannot drive -- drag the
chancellor out of the partnership. i think she will test the ground of where the compromises could be, where there is wiggle room. angela merkel is in a good position to say that. there are four issues which have to be resolved. tj, there role of the regulation in britain. they want to wind down for the regulation on labor. there is free movement of labor and the citizens rights. all of these issues are on the table and there is not one answer. there is leeway for compromise on these four issues but they have to be addressed. mark: thank you. the news conference between angela merkel and theresa may continues and we will monitor it for big headlines. vonnie: we are staying with germany next, an exclusive as we
♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i am mark barton with european close five or so minutes away. time for a bloomberg exclusive. let's get to the munich security conference with our executive editor for global business is there with joe kaeser, ceo of siemens. was here,ser co-initiated the signing of the charter of trust to combat cybersecurity. mark: take it away. us about thell
charter? by now and what do you expect to accomplish -- why now and what do you expect to come was in three years? >> companies getting together to get trust. seeing there will be more 20 billion devices connected -- soon there will be more than 20 billion devices connected. we need to deal with cybersecurity. the reason i wanted to do this is companies have so much experience in different areas and to bring them together will create value. >> ray dalio of bridgewater is targeting the dax, betting against the biggest companies, including siemens is he wrong? >> time will tell. i feel very good what i see with my numbers. >> the other issue that is
permeating the discussion is infrastructure in the u.s. spend, about the massive flooding the zone with infrastructure spending. what are you looking to see from those proposals? >> to see what the united states will be doing to improve its infrastructure and make it safer. industrial manufacturing. it sounds like a business for siemens. we have 60,000 people working for siemens in the united states. we are in 50 states with 25 manufacturing sites. we are established. we are poised to help build a solid and modern infrastructure in the united states. in a modern power infrastructure. >> a quick follow-up on
bridgewater, what is the one thing people need to know about why we need to believe in the sustainability and viability of your company? >> the investors need to make their own choices, it is a free market. i am a strong promoter of sustainability investment in long-term aspects on a high performance culture level. if companies that against something, they will have reasons -- bet against something, they will have reasons. fundamentals, if i look at my company, topline growth and i feel pretty good. >> you had a meeting with the iraqi prime minister, will that -- how will that translate to more investment in the region? >> that was part of the conference that i was talking to the iraqi prime minister and i will see him again tomorrow. we have been promoting a concept
of health to help rebuild -- how to help rebuild iraq. training, how to localize production and create jobs in the country and make it a better place to invest and a safer place to live. >> what do you forecast in terms of your investment in the middle east, generally? >> the middle east has been one -- volatile places, not just because of its activities but because of leaders who want to take their economics to the next level. -- in saudiabia, arabia, a massive undertaking. uae,got the --
engineering. seeatter where i go, i engage discussion about building a better place. how will cybersecurity translate into different investments on the part of siemens, either in hiring or personnel, or funds directed towards developing against cybercrime? >> we are the world leading automation and digital enterprise company. about 12,000 people who work actively on network platform.our we are well-equipped and we take it seriously. >> thank you. mark: thank you very much. joe kaeser, the siemens chief
executive. trade.e breaking news on vonnie: we will waiting for the results of the investigation at the commerce department and sources tell us that u.s. commerce department is set to recommend a 7.7% aluminum tariff. dutiese wants to do 3.5% -- 23.5% duties on china and russia aluminum. -- 7.7% aluminum tariffs. the commerce secretary today said results will be announced later on. this was an instruction from the president last year to the commerce department to open the investigation under section 232 of the trade expansion act of
1962. we will get official word later but as of now, that is what sources tell us. mark: let's look at european equities and how they finished the week, you see green on our function, which tells you a story for the day and for the week. four days of gains. nding a three-week losing run, the longest since june of 2017 on the back of the biggest weekly drop for the european share gains with the stoxx 600 in two years. the benchmark last week falling 5%. this is another great chart, investors driving up yields on german bonds on speculation of faster growth in the european region and the diminishing risk of deflation will eventually bring the first increase in ecb 11.es since 200
no signs of panic. the german 10 year yield is the blue line. euro, three-month, implied volatility is the white line. let's talk about retail sales in the u.k.. barely growing in january as consumers are reluctant to splash out among a squeeze in rising prices with sales increasing .1%, the estimate from economist was an increase of .5%. they rose 1.6% from a year earlier, the weakest in a january in four years with british consumers only slowly recovering from the time of shrinking real incomes after the 2016 reckitt boat pushed sterling lower -- brexit vote pushed starting lower. sees wage growth improving this year and says it will need to raise rates to keep prices under control. sharese stock, look at
with a record amount of oil and gas at the end of 2017, cap police on recovering true prices to significantly exceed profit estimates for the fourth quarter. the italian energy giant shares up .96% today, getting the rewards of exploration successes in recent years. just in time for the recovery in oil prices. all producers revenue growing after a three-year industry slump. europe's other oil company earnings showed a mixed picture, withth a jump in output seven new projects. shell missing estimates because of cash flow. shares up 1%. that is a look at the european markets. vonnie: and america, that in america, -- in america, who will
see "black panther." a little relief in markets. the dollar off the three-year low, below 89 in terms of the dollar index but a little stronger today. you see that in the yen as well. it is lunar new year and the yen is trading stronger, flirting with the 105 handle. in primarilys come because the 10 year yield has come in offsides at 225% -- all highs at 2.85%. some of the markets in europe did well including scandinavian markets, the extra bright green, russia with a down day and the lunar new year affected asia overnight. some pockets of better performance. we have a bonus chart. we will get aluminum tariffs
recommendations from the commerce department about the investigation -- after the investigation has concluded with the wilbur ross holding a meeting. sources tell us there will be and possibly much more, 23.5% on aluminum from china and russia. that is doing this to the price of aluminum in london, up 1.9%. should be noted that stockpiles have been growing. you would not have anticipated the price of aluminum would move up like this but it is on the news that is having an impact for traders. mark: joining us is market chatsworth -- marcus ashworth. to come did it take you up with the title? ryan's idea.
mark: it is a great piece. it goes against a narrative of one of the most read stories. selloff grips credits as rate fears take -- you are focusing on the european credit market which has not been hurt as much as other parts of the space. >> i am focusing on what is happening now as opposed to last week. the ending today is a classic, the week after the week that was with the turmoil last week. this week is a classic trading week. the hedge funds should have done really well because you see reaction into the close of day, all about a u.s. holiday on monday and lunar new year in china and a lot of asia. week everyone with a nice
-- close your books and everyone with a nice week. 18 million being -- retail sales week, no idea what the bank of the one thinks it should be rising rate but they know better than i.id -- then i -- shorts are getting closed out. vonnie: the easy -- mark: the ecb is standing in the background. >> ever present by 1.5 billion each week of credit. mark: is that a just world? >> it is god's work. ownsonds european sector negative, they are literally paying corporate money to lend the money. it is extraordinary. funding and credit throughout the eurozone, boosting the
economy. vonnie: will it follow the u.s. markets? we look at u.s. corporate spreads this week, do you anticipate that in europe? >> it is an interesting story. i am not sure how strong this thesis is by dollar weakness, is yesterday,th -- japanese selling of foreign bonds is picking up. , they sold 9 billion last week and 8 billion the week before. it is clearly picking up. it is because they are scared of the fed hiking rates and scared they are losing on both counts. the bonds they bought are dropping in price and their holding it not hedged. they are losing on the dollar as well. so they are liquidating. one of the reasons the dollar is so weak, i cannot make sense of
it other ways around. japan, china, they are liquidating dollar bonds. last week, we saw a liquidation of everything. if that is not keeping the dollar down, maybe causing markets to lose strength. vonnie: european corporate continued to issue like there is no tomorrow -- will they? bestietest is probably the week since august if you exclude christmas. one of the reasons credit spreads in europe have done so well, supply and demand, demand and the european central bank regardless and supply has dropped off only about 6 billion this week, even on the -- we do lowesty survey, the summer -- he had been coming in this week was 10 million and he only got six. less issuance coming in quiet on
corporate and high yields. spreads in europe to recover nicely because they have not had a lot of issuance. ashworth of bloomberg gadfly. vonnie: let's get the first word news with courtney donohoe. >> a report that donald trump had an extramarital affair with a former playboy model. his allies according to the york are used allies -- to keep reports out of the news media and the white house calls the story fake news. u.s. new home construction rose last month to the highest level since october of 2016, housing up almost 10% to an annual rate of 1.3 million, the big boom was a part of the buildings with multifamily start raising 24%. a federal control board is seeking a $300 million loan for puerto rico's power company after a federal judge rejected a previous $1 billion loan.
the company has warned that it may have to rationing electricity. 400,000 customers remain in the dark like months after hurricane maria. that is more evidence british consumers are being fleeced by higher prices, retail sales barely rose, climbing 1/10 of 1%, well below forecasts. the brexit vote in 2016 push the count lower and triggered a spike in inflation. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on the aluminum giant alcoa because shares are rallying following the news the u.s. commerce department said to be recommending a 7.7% aluminum beort target, that would good for domestic aluminum producers and you are seeing out, -- century rising as well with aluminum rising in london.
-- fundamentals. farmers are going to start to see that turnaround with the u.s. rural index in february rising to its highest since may of 2014 and the farmland price index rose, farm equipment index rose. you are starting to see some of this turnaround. 1908. i am looking at the inventory to sales ratio. fundamentals are improving and you want to see the inventory to sales ratio to climb because sales are falling or are they getting inventory because they expect it to fly out the door in the coming quarter? you are seeing a built up after the recession into the recovery. farmers will replace older tractors. vonnie: construction is becoming important. accepts 70% of the
revenue and 20% construction, five-tenures ago, only 10%, 15%. 57% increase in the first quarter. they are expecting that to be 80% year-over-year growth this year. vonnie: fascinating. an amazing industry. taylor riggs with our stock of the hour. mark: the italy election on march 4 with new and old candidates in the next. -- mix. berlusconi leaving the center-right coalition. in our italian government reporter. what do the polls tell us? >> today is the last day we can talk about it. likely thatow that
no single party or coalition is seen winning a parliamentary majority. mark: if a hung parliament is likely, what is the look, the constitution of the next government likely to look like? it is a big question. we have a new electoral system and it changes every few years. the look of what will be the 55th government since world war ii depends if the center-right, closest to getting a majority does gain points in the two weeks left before the election and, if that is the coast -- case, berlusconi cannot serve as promised or because he has banned from public office. he could decide who to appoint. vonnie: it turns out one third
of the electric is not decided. -- electorate is not decided and most are female who have not been to college. in thee disappointed current leadership. >> that is right. not voting.are key issue for a private list, establishment party. if it gets the people who are disillusioned with the political system and do not believe in the political class. if they manage to get them to the ballot box, the prospects for them will improve. them who key issue for have been campaigning in the north and south of italy with a strong -- where the strongholds are. annie: italy has been through range of different types of governments over the last few doades, from technocracy's
everything you could think of. it seems to run whether there is a government or not, right? >> that is right. when you talk to the establishment, they say nobody does instability better than them and they point to cases like germany, the u.k., spain, where not all is as stable as it may appear. the italian system has massive flexibility and we may see, after the boat, -- vote, enemies becoming friends and people may switch sides. it may be possible that we see a majority form behind a figure indicated by one of the major groups. rise we saw volatility ahead of the french election last year. is it fair to say that the market reaction ahead of the italian election so far has been muted?
>> to be honest, over the past few weeks, we have seen markets calm. mainly because the five-star movement has backtracked on his threats against the euro. it wanted a referendum on quitting the euro, which unsettled investors. now they say that would be a last resort as they want to change the treaties first. for that reason partly, the markets do not seem to be worried. i would caution against complacency because, if we do get a weak government with a small majority, too wide a hodgepodge of forces, it will not push through the structural forms which it desperately needs for growth, youth unemployment, the judicial system. none of that will happen with a weak government. mark: thank you for joining us. our italian government reporter in rome. vonnie: that election is coming
vonnie: let's get back to breaking news as the u.s. commerce department will recommend a 7.7% import terror on aluminum -- tariffs on aluminum. as i asked 23.5% from russia and china. an investigation ordered by the president one year ago and we should have a formal briefing and results of the briefing from the commerce department within minutes. let's bring in our manager -- managing editor.
the 7.7% and 23.5% in china and russia, how does that differ from what we anticipated? >> in line with what we anticipated, we saw all kinds of numbers thrown out by the industry and consumers of aluminum, people are afraid of the tariffs. you are seeing shares in aluminum companies go up, shares companies.mpany -- these are just recommendations and we will have to see what the president does. he has said he wants more tariffs. vonnie: it took a entire year for this to happen. of --s seem like a lot 23.5% tariff on china, in comparison with historical tariffs? 87% of only taken beyond what you sent to the u.s. last year. most of this will not be
affected. it will be the last 13% or so that we will be looking at to subject to the tariffs. numbers are just in and we are working out the details. we have seen the immediately pop in the equity markets. vonnie: in london as well. who will this be good for? >> people who have production in the united states. the alcoas of this world. vonnie: will the consumer notice a difference? >> that has been holding up this decision because of a lot of consumers, beer can makers and others are concerned about the stability of the price in their product and what it means for the price of their product on the shelf for consumers. ,onnie: why the difference seven point 7% overall and 23.5% in china and russia, why the disparity? >> it is meant to hit the places
we do not feel entirely friendly toward. venezuela is on the list and the anon -- vietnam is on the list. reporting indicates metals are being transferred to vietnam from china to get away from import restrictions. we are trying -- vonnie: excellent briefing. you are our managing editor for commodities. the recommendations are coming very shortly from the commerce department that the tariffs will look like that. mark: where european equities finished the day, up for the week and a day, up for the fourth day in five. ♪ retail.
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near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. we use so why do we pay touters thave a phone connected. when we're already paying for internet? shouldn't it all just be one thing? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you can get 5 lines of talk and text included at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. choose by the gig or unlimited. and now, get a $200 prepaid card when you buy an iphone. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit, or go to xfnitymobile.com. >> i am mark crumpton with the first four news. president trump goes to florida state where he says he will meet with some of the bravest people on earth. the president will meet with the families of victims of the parkland shooting and is working
with congress on many fronts he says but did not give specifics. in germany, the israeli prime minister met with united secretary-general at the munich security conference. concernedetanyahu about iranian military involvement in syria and says israel would take action if iran were to attempt to build bases there and he also said the goal -- the goal line height region heights area will be in israel forever. a city that suffer the most nowruction in syria, for many residents in the city carrying out renovation work themselves on their homes and businesses that were badly damaged by fighting. syria's government later this year is expected to launch the first government organized effort to rebuild three neighborhoods.