tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg March 3, 2018 11:00pm-12:00am EST
♪ on presidenttdown trump decision to slap duties on aluminum imports. the president says he is looking out for american workers. >> he is trying to level the playing field and bring jobs back to the u.s.. this is about jobs. >> china has already criticized the plan and they will loom large over the national people's conference that starts tomorrow. we are live in beijing. it is a pivotal day for your pain politics as italy both in a
national election and angela merkel finds out whether she can have a third term. jpmorgan is pushing ahead with a growth plan. it is 4 a.m. here in london. a lot of the classical safe haven plays are becoming more popular. let's run through the damage done if you are playing the long game. to stage a late in the day as i and bring home half a percentage point. saw quite a selloff in european stocks. that is the fourth day of losses overat the stoxx 600 down 2%.
2.1% to be specific. be feeding into further inflation. let's talk more about the safe haven places. is a key player. it is an important one to watch at 105. brent crude at a bit of a rebound. that is feeding into some of the thinking going and monday. gold, safe haven spirit. this is on the back drop of a slightly weaker backdrop. let's check in on first word news. a big weekend for
europe on the political front with two votes are picked up today which could set the tone for the future of the european union. italians go to the poll today, meanwhile in germany the center left social european party will announce its vote. theresa may has warned warring factions in her party to get real. she says the u.k. will not get everything it once in the brexit negotiations and she is prepared to put his miss interest ahead of ideology. or ats is a negotiation neither of us can have exactly what we want. but i am confident that we can reach agreements. we both want good accents -- good access to each other's markets. you want competition to be fair and open. we want reliable, transparent means of verifying that we are
reaching our commitment. ischina's parliament expected to enact sweeping changes kicking off tomorrow. repeal terman to limits. also creating a powerful regulatory agency, and to overhaul the finance and insurance sector. canadian prime minister justin trudeau is calling president trump's plan to impose tariffs " absolutely unacceptable." sense tot makes no highlight canadian oil as a security threat. in israel, police have questioned benjamin netanyahu and his wife as part of an investigation involving the
country's telecom giant. last month his confidence were arrested, in return for positive media coverage. bank of england governor says cryptocurrencies are challenging central banks but posed no real threat to traditional currency. he spoke at a bloomberg television event in london. >> where not worry about it placing -- about it replacing the at moneys. -- fiat moneys. the 90th academy awards take lace in los angeles today. it is between the shape of water
and three billboards. $3000 on th at week.billboards this this is bloomberg. about our toptalk story. stocks fell sharply. later pushed back against a wave of criticism, saying trade wars are not good. higher prices for domestic users. further clouding the outlook for economic growth. defended trumps action. >> what the president is trying to do is level the playing field and ring jobs back to u.s..
this is about jobs. that is the real purpose of the whole thing. it is also about national .ecurity, as defined by the 232 that is the legal basis for putting tariffs on. yousef: in response, european ismissioner says the block prepared to react forcefully. harley davidson, levi jeans, and bourbon whiskey. the market is clearly worried about this being a slippery slope. president donald trump is a president who is a savvy negotiator who doesn't mind some rattling. to begin with it will hurt the u.s. economy. stillht help the u.s.
workers but they're only 150,000 of them. he is hurting u.s. consumers. it could be a prelude to a trade war. that is what the markets are worried about herod obviously, this will be challenged it goes --inst you might have been able to do it when: still iron for the basis of the economy, but don't longer is the basis. it is very film -- flimsy grounds. yousef: tariffs are not unheard of. they are used on some goods. but what i want to get back to's president george w. bush is term. nasser: we had in 2002. yousef: this is what happened. of the u.s. imposing levies of 30% on steel under
president george w. bush in 2002 . trade partners retaliated. stocks and the dollar slid. the yield on 10 year treasury almost halved. nasser: and there was a loss of jobs. when you hear wilbur ross talk about job creation, he is living on another planet. you have lost of u.s. jobs above all. it will send the u.s. economy in a tailspin. the last thing you want is to jeopardize the global economy we have by starting a trade war. in addition, if the object was to her china, he is not doing that. chinese steel is mainly into asia and the chinese market. he is hurting his home allies like canada, brazil, south korea, and the europeans. uae, which way the is an exporter to the united
states. yousef: now that everybody had a chance to vent, how will this play out? what is the actual policy dynamic and the timeline? itser: he has to announce and he has to issue an order. this will then be challenged. it i go up to the end of march before we actually get a result. the europeans might also prepare retaliation. so will canada aaron the haveine will be, you will the better idea by next thursday if there is a presidential order coming up. yousef: we still have a lot to talk about. nasser saidi staying on the program. we are live in beijing later for a look at what to expect in the two-week meeting.
bond and stock sales improve. companiesto the website, the firm is working with clients who want to reduce their exposure to firearms. the floridaer shooting that killed 17 last month. investors are putting pressure. samerable source says the measure would struggle for the full year. that is your bloomberg business flash. yousef: thanks, christine. let's talk about the big weekend on the political front. now with two votes prepping up today, which could set the tone for the future of the european union. the italians going to the polls
today. we will announce the results. grandr to join a coalition. with italy, without wanting to prejudge any of the ongoing pulling. what is a key scenario here and the potential applications? andrew: this is a huge day for europe. in a sense, if you look back over the last year with the elections, it is the end of a super cycle of elections. two very different scenarios we are looking at. in italy, we have not had holes in two weeks. -- polls in two weeks. it is unclear what we are going to get. what you are seeing is a
populist -- different shades of populist going up against an establishment that is very weak and doesn't seem to be a player on this. as'll either get five-star butbiggest single party, the coalition looks like will have the biggest presence and will possibly end up as the kingmaker, they desire clear for a wild. alexa polls at 11:00 p.m. tonight. look for that to play out over a few days. yousef: in germany we have five months of medical uncertainty. uncertainty. every going to get clarity finally for another term? andrew: i think so.
the chancellor has worked very hard at this. five months of difficult talks that have cleared a number of hurdles. now it is a grassroots member speaking. about 66%. cap prejudging, because if there is one think this super cycle has taught us, you never know. it would seem as though angela merkel is back. it will bring her back onto the international stage with every new force. she did not want to prejudge what might come out. she will certainly be back front and center for germany and for the world in terms of trade talks and pushing back on president trump. yousef: then we have brexit well. theresa may not making the progress she was hoping for. yes, but she has also
inserted some constructive ambiguity. we had a big speech where she seemed to back off the lost her red lines, blurred them. in her case, she has been on the ropes and battered and everybody has said how she is out and she manages to find a way to keep going. with her latest comments, what was interesting is a lot of her critics seem to line up kind her. we're about to start a difficult phase of brexit which is the trade talks. yousef: andrew, we appreciate your time. let's bring back in nasser saidi . justf the three that were laid out, if i have exposure to europe, but should i be most concerned about here?
nasser: the point is that you have coalition government in germany and other coalition government in italy. it is less thing italy needs because it has low productivity. it has not recovered from the great financial crisis. it has a big problem in banking. they are zombie tanks. zombie banks. the fear is the prospects for europe are no longer as strong as they were previously. the markets were waiting on the m&m affect. the crown is the only strong leader right now in europe. spread -- the prospects have been weakened. but the one out of journey
aat we want out of germany is -- central in eastern europe and a large countries such as italy might fall into a populist camp. up.ef: we saw euro nasser: that's more dollar weakness. yousef: where do you see the euro headed from here? will investors wake up to some of the results and do some aggressive realization? nasser: i think it will be euro weakness. i think the ecb will be happy to see that. i think they will continue monitoring easing. under these political conditions, we will continue with our program here at i don't think you will see any rapid reduction in qe in europe before maybe september. yousef: what is the biggest risk
outside of the politics for europe at the moment? for the ecb specifically? nasser: the widening spreads. maybe a lower euro. germany will like eight lower euro because it is a big exporter. widening spreads is going to beat the major one. within the eurozone itself. yousef: always a pleasure having you on the show. that was nasser saidi. the's what is coming up on show. set to become the chinese president for life. a preview of that next. what to expect. this is bloomberg. ♪
connect sweeping changes that could allow president xi to rule indefinitely. he seems to be caulking the limelight with tariffs on steel. businessesve china's and needs in responding to threats? between thedialogue u.s. and china what are the realities? tom: that is interesting, isn't it. the plan here is to put a lid on the tensions. chiefard from the economic advisor to president xi saying that he wanted to collaborate with the u.s. and they hoped to have talks here in beijing. certainly, they would only be putting field on the fire here
they don't want these terrorists to be distracting. -pbocd hear from an ex official. some of the products to come out of those states, we heard from a big business leader, a main importer saying the trade tensions could hurt his business. he may have to look to diversify his soybeans. yousef: what reforms can we expect in terms of announcement over the next few weeks? reforms of state owned enterprises. we've heard in the last 12 hours may, that chinese eastern
according to reports, be planning to privatize part of their business. system, whichipo has been put on the back burner. that will be in focus. of gdp target is also interest to investors here. we will also get to targets around inflation and fiscal stimulus. as well as nominations to keep posts, like pboc. we will also see whether it they will announce details about a stronger, retooled, and read , regulator. yousef: tom, have you seen any indication of a non-diplomatic response from china? arecomments we're seeing diplomatic. anything that would indicate
intent -- a tit-for-tat response. tom: not yet. they'd set they do have measures. we heard that from the ex pboc member yesterday. they're trying to take a moderate approach. one main reason is these proposed tariffs have very little economic impact on china. they may want to sit back and let the europeans and canadians get angry about it and pressure washington. of course the corporate lobbies in u.s. rather than china getting embroiled in something having a limited impact on them. they want to keep a square focus on the domestic agenda and they are concerned moving beyond these tariffs but we might be seeing is an aggressive approach. that's where you will see chinese concerned. yousef: good to have you on the
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♪ yousef: it is 4:30 a.m. in london. shotre looking at a live of kingdom tower. brent crude rebounded in the friday session. you looking at the first rise in net since late january. let's get you a quick first word headlines check from around the world. christine harvey. big weekendt is a for europe on the political front with two votes wrapping up today and could set the tone for the future of the eu. italians going to the poll in a national election heard in
germany, the social democratic boat --ll announce the vote. theresa may has warned warring factions in her conservative party to get real. u.k. won't get everything at once in the brexit negotiations and she is prepared to put business interests ahead of ideology. a negotiation. neither of us can have exactly what we want. but i am confident that we can preach agreements. we both want good access to each other's markets. we want competition between us to be fair and open. , transparentble means of verifying we are meeting their commitments and resulting disputes. china's parliament is expected to enact sweeping changes during the conference
starting tomorrow. president xi jinping set to rule indefinitely. includes creating a powerful regulatory agency. possibly an overhaul of the $33 trillion insurance sector. canadian prime minister justin trudeau is calling president trump's plan absolutely unacceptable. he says it makes no sense to highlight canada as a potential security threat. eu and asian leaders have also condemned this move. in israel, police have questioned prime minister benjamin netanyahu and his wife as part of a corruption case.
bank of england governor mark carney says cryptocurrencies are challenging the central banks that posed no real threat when it comes to replacing traditional. >> we're not worried about displacing sterling or the u.s. dollar or conventional currencies, the out money. it does draw a challenge to central banks. how to reorganize organize them to better serve customers. the 90th academy awards take place in los angeles tonight. the oscar for best picture could be the closest race in years. one person bet $14,000 earlier this week. global news, 24 hours a day.
i'm christine harvey, this is bloomberg. ♪ xi jinping yousef: thanks, christine. pushing ahead with growth plan in saudi arabia. meanwhile the kingdom expanding refinancing. martinrg news matthew joins us. what have you been hearing exactly? yousef: matthew: what we have managed to pick up, but we have seen is the kingdom has been able to take an extra $6 billion. it's priced everybody when it took a $10 billion loan. now, it is taking another $6 billion from them. given the budgetary shortcomings, this will be helpful. it demonstrates that the kingdom is diversifying away from tapping the bond market.
side, it isking another sign that despite the corruption probe, the economic slowdown, the banks are keen on supporting the saudi story. they're hiring more. they're bringing more people into the country. there are still interested in doing deals there. despite a few bumps along the road, everyone is still very has a the opportunities in saudi arabia. yousef: anybody who doubted that they were here to stay as an international issue, or this is evidence contrary, this makes them in the emerging markets. the government told us they will refinance the loan and then come up with a pond. what we will see being done is the banks who will show the biggest commitment to them in terms of blending will be the ones who get the bond mandate as well. they will be playing that relationship card on the banks. it will be encouraging people to
get the saudis more money. we will see them in the bond market again in the next week or two. i wouldn't be surprised if we see saudi arabia printing up to a $10 billion trade. theef: let's widen out conversation. as you listen to some of the insights from matthew, where are you at with the saudi arabia 16 come play? charles: we still believe with emerging-market bonds, we believe there will be impacts. they look very interesting.
you're saying the spread is not justified? it's be tighter, shouldn't it? the premiumy: yes is unjustified. there is still value in this bond. obviously it is much more challenging. yousef: how important saudi arabia raising this number? there will always be critical for investors to see that there is enough asset to trade. charles-henry: that is one of the drawbacks, lack of supply. we are seeing more supply and it looks a bit contrary. usually the market does well when your supply is going up. yousef: i want to switch across
to equities. a bit of a difference by playing out there. we saw a lot of deep selling around the lenders, this is on the islamic tax. it is very much on investors mind. you are saying this is overstated. the banks have made the provisions. this has been going on for a while. why freak out? yousef: charles-henry: first, there is very strong buffers for banks. every provision. there is no impact. the issue not offset the policy issue. it is massively on the banks. it's a play on rising interest rates. cost on thest no perspective.
it goes straight to a net interest margin. play onnks are a major the index story. the large banks are going to take advantage. the fundamental is very strong. yousef: so lenders is one side you are bullish on. what about some of the other sectors? if i wanted to take position n emerging market event driven trade? charles-henry: you still need to be very selective. is veryve each one challenging. h one where good. sector -- saudi is one of the markets in the world there is lowest in attrition. likeave key tailwinds insurance enforcements.
47% of car drivers are not insured at this stage. woman drivingthe there -- we believe some of these plays could double this year. we are very positive on that segment. there could be interesting stories in saudi. yousef: that sentiment is supported in rebounding oil prices. showing theow out u.s., some of the explorers there, no at 800 riggs. by another big. it shows you the sheer ferocity or the looming giant that is u.s. shale. secretary-general from opec be talking to his shale
counterparts. has your view on oil changed? charles-henry: no, it is more like a technical correction. net byas a lot of speculators. as a technical correction from that side. the u.s. prediction is an issue. oil,major ability for global demand is strong. opec russia deal will not be challenge. ist but not least, there rinse in devising on term investors to take some position oil to get to royalties. yousef: we still have a lot to talk about. here's what's coming up. dubai'sonly thing
♪ dubai: it is 8:30 a.m. in are at we are 90 minutes away the open. announcing dividends for 2017, cash dividends at 16.3%. since the proposal from the aramex board. theth-quarter income be highest estimates when they put out the numbers on your 12. let's get back out to christine. christine: lenders including ebf sachs are hiring.
deutsche bank also expanding in the kingdom as the outlook for bond and stock sales improve. $450 million, a prayer expansion in a more tory nation. including a 7.45 alien dollar purchase and an almost $2 billion purchase in brazil. finalizery tried to three oil contracts at the end of the year on march 20. the oil minister says the nation's pumping 3.8 million barrels per day. blackrock is exploring ideas for new funds to omit gunmakers and
retailers. the firm is working with clients who want to reduce their exposure to firearms. it comes after the florida high school shooting that killed 17 last month. managersster -- asset the think. that is your bloomberg business flash. boredom not year usually in the list. dubai is turning out to be a bit of a problem. trading volumes dwindle to the lack of investors. the first time in more than a decade, the counterpart of this. the cost of insuring dubai's bonds has fallen below 100 basis points. joining us with more on the
story, where are they hiding? >> deserve good question. the market in dubai, when it comes to stock, it is going through a very boring moment at this time. talk between investors, we come to the conclusion that, a few months ago we generated a lot of discussion. dividends, and the earnings season. you always have people in strategy and making decisions on top of those. now we don't see a lot of catalyst going forward. the windows what to expect from this market. there is not a lot of excitement regarding the emirate itself. nobody is heading that we should see a big increase in the economy itself. it has been quiet. yousef: it has been quiet but
there has been quite a bit of downside. one of the worst-performing stock indexes around the world. with any selloff, there comes opportunity. are some of the pockets of opportunity that investors have been telling you? filipe: the ones we see in the market now they are mostly selling. we see index trading at the lowest level since 2016. at the same time, dubai is trading at an attractive level if you compared to emerging markets. biggest discounts since 2011. we hear a lot of people saying this should be a good moment to look at certain names in the emirate. within the banking industry, we hear a lot of people that like emirates. it is a sound name within the economy here. i am sure that if investors are actually willing to look at this market and find the good bets,
they should find good opportunities out there. yousef: i appreciate your time. always a pleasure to have you on the show. look to build on what was said. in terms of the discount to since 2011.kets, what is going to bring this market back to life? obviously there is a risk premium, which we believe this unjustified heard. yousef: those were the days. charles-henry: it needs to come back. but is important is what the companies are doing. aramex. you have a world-class company with 35% revenues, trading at 13
times the. probably because of the risk premium. in the meantime, something is very strongly, they continue to improve in terms of efficiencies. at some point, with fundamentals being improved, investors will come back. you mentioned the banks, some although these this come we believe back out some point. yousef: so you're saying the fundamentals of there, the pe is a bargain and the companies are doing well and are max was one of example.
to the dubai story, a few years ago it was a major event to rally around. be a nationaly champion for bringing in capital. i'm thinking along the lines of the inclusion. there was always something big to look forward to. there just isn't in dubai at the moment. charles-henry: but dubai can also be seen as a whole story. an index inclusion story. we see saudi already coming into the emerging markets. think about what happened at some point. you had latin america pulling in a look of foreign investors interest. that is what we're betting on. yousef: outside of the uae and saudi arabia. charles-henry: so there's a
presidential election between don't believe will be a major effect on the market. yousef: dirt top call? your top call? charles-henry: you have rising interest rates in both parts of the world and admittedly it is coming from a high level. you can find a lot of companies that will take advantage of this. all of the companies which have and financial charges, with interest rates coming down, it will -- yousef: so do i play this in government bonds or in equities? there was private trade among eastern tobacco. charles-henry: last year was good for fixed income.
you need to be selective. if you look at the index, it is in the range. stockpicking, there's a lot of interesting stories. yousef: what could derail the egyptian recovery? what worries you most? --you are saying residential egyptian presidential. is it deteriorated? it can happen. market, ifes to there is too much money coming be corrections.
from the ecb. what additional guidance might we hear? then, it is the bank of japan's turn on friday there is also the crucial nonfarm's jobs report from the united states. plenty to digest and ahead to. ultimately it will come back down to the ongoing rhetoric between the united states and the rest of the world. tit for tat tariffs. the second part of that question is will we see a formal response for those who have threatened there response? that is what the market was worried about and it drove down european and u.s. stocks. still managing to geek out gains of half of 1%. investors taking their foot off and risk on pedal and putting into assets like dollar-yen. 2.86%.s. 10 year at
jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "real yield". ♪ jonathan: coming up, president trump reveals tariffs. quickly sparking trade war worries. and chairman howl opening the -- chairman powell opening the door for four rate hikes this year, and the week looking resilient. we have chairman powell opening the door to four rate hikes. >> headwinds that become tailwinds is a reflection the current economy has gained steam and if they go four times we
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