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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  March 5, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EST

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in these negotiations, we have sought to be constructive, fair-minded and determined to not reached just any deal, but a good deal. that very much remains our approach. nasa has been in place for 24 years in the economic results are not in doubt. we know the agreement has screenshots, supported growth and raised standards for people in canada, united states and mexico. disagreementhat, is 24 years old her at it needs to be modernized. in needs to reflect that society, business and technology has involved. president trump has said that his most important goal is to and middle workers class. we intended to the same goal. this should be a shared project.
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is not aecause trade zero-sum game. in trade, we can all when and we need to all win in order to achieve an agreement that will benefit all people. this negotiation can and will be successful if together we can make north america more competitive, create more jobs, including manufacturing here in north america north america's competitiveness is essential to our prosperity. here in mexico city, we made solid progress. our negotiators have been toilet away on some of these bread-and-butter chapters for months. yet, the issues are hugely important for individuals and we are moving ahead. in previous rounds, we close chapters on competition. your attic we added substantially by closing the good regulatory practices chapter, the cemetery chapter
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and the proprietary food annexed. we are beginning to make headway on some of the more challenging issues. in round six, canada offered creative ideas to initiate ideas.ion about these it continues here in mexico city. we are making progress, but we do have significant work ahead. separateuse on a point. last week, i issued a statement that the yuan's pending announcement on seal imports. ally and if number one customer of american steel, canada would use any trade restriction as absolutely unacceptable. we've always sent a for canadian workers and businesses.
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canada will take appropriate measures to defend our trade interests and we will continue to stand up for aluminum workers and the industry. we know the trade between canada and united states is good for all three of countries. today, the priebus have an opportunity to improve and modernize nafta, bring more jobs and make north america more competitive in the world. we have a lot of work ahead. canada is committed and i look forward to attending network and washington, d.c. thank you and much as perseus. me totics will allow deliver my comments.
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for time, let me ask you the advice. >> i thank my colleagues because you are clearly sent a message of commitment in which we there is a right winning sustain for amay countries. be sensitive and understand where the other one is sending so that we may go straight complete. tothis round, i want
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the u.s.,te teams of canada and mexico. national line if this round were this since with what the ambassador just said. as we get closer to the end, the to starts allowing us closing our differences. the three close chapters -- is this the one good regulatory practice. logical,are it is not but if we are doing things together, we are breaking
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regulations of different time -- types of procedures. -- it creates a north american andter two monitor subsidized good practices. share with our friends in the united states, toarly all the information onrantee information affect any that topic we trying to cover.
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,side from guaranteed certainty based on science, this is great progress. -- the truth is that this is a weat improvement in which now have enough indeed to others the list that i shared , this is the closing
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believe we can cover both. it guarantees free competition. there is just one obstacle. chapterst using another and we finally have the necessary the able to subsidize that are are chapters not ignoring the fundamental purpose. understando undoubtedly be a free bouncing
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trade. we can take upon ourselves provided we have the passion of .rade think commitment of the beacones because continue making the efforts to move forward. timeline.doubt the -- we have to be for usf the final result and the possibility of setting to be able to carry out the
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debate so we can move forward and this is something we are going to be closing in the future. >> that wraps up the seventh round of nafta negotiations to theto -- likely canadian and mexican representatives there. the headline think we have closed the additional chapters here in the last of months of negotiation. to do it, you have to assume a lot of the negotiations happen in the short-term. that was kind of the tone we got from mexico and the canadian.
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>> canada or the any tariff as absolutely acceptable. they would take measures to defendays it is committed to the success of initiation straight when i found interesting over light has are saying they would hope for a three-way agreement, but if not come bilateral agreements can be made. headline him and -- the longer we go, the more political headwinds. x the political calendar is jampacked. campaigning again soon. ontario and quebec have elections.
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chief international responded to mexico city said to us earlier. come in here and give us your thoughts. a pre-pone tone difference between the negotiators. >> i think you now that. the negotiators were much more up. glass half-empty as you say, but a glass quarter empty in the past. very insulting at previous press statements, talking about how he was disappointment that's pointed and today, he seemed to recognize that there had been progress made in there have been good faith on the other side. any did not talk about eighth round, although there is one tentatively does appear that the talks are going to go on and that the u.s. feels they are productive enough to make it
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worthwhile which is a change. >> obviously, had to throw the idea of steel tariffs being a dealbreaker if they come true, but we don't know what is going to happen with that yet. >> they could do a low agreements, but neither mexico or canada interested. they still want to this new not wrecks tell us more about how you interpret the impact tariffs are having on negotiations. . there is a cloud over negotiations, but they don't know what other countries will do. if the president doesn't exempt from those countries have to respond. does the president respond after that how does he react to nafta? his tweet suggests he would not move tariffs from canada and
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mexico. they can't have a do nafta unless you have negotiated, so perhaps he wants to keep the talks going. it is not clear if they will want to. seeill have to wait and wants the president signs the final order, what we get after it opens coming up against the president and his steel tariffs are at a number of them in the states. we'll see if they stay on the lists. >> he made the grade point earlier and that was as far as the negotiations are concerned, the entire negotiation team could change. master saying we have the -- we have half of the chapter closing. the whole thing be
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reopened as a result of the potential new government? is a question we cannot answer, although we believe they could reenter. the leading candidates in mexico have said he is going to live with it. it might be conference areas and in one area they have not talked about, he would be a lot tougher and so there would be a whole different kind of negotiation ahead. cityining us from mexico from the conclusion of those talks. >> waiting on the announcement for around eight. >> the latest on the italian election on the nation's establishment parties. -- this is bloomberg.
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>>." and the ripple effects of italy's election. voters -- ons as and cannot sue they his tidenation as the democratic party leader. , ferdinandoow juliano. clearly, this is a loss for the technocrats. complying with european goals overall. where does this leave italy and as integration of europe friend in germany's sees it? it is not clear what the
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election will produce in terms of the government because the center-right and centerleft and the five-star movement are not able to form a majority and on top of that, they came up with each other. seeing.lly waiting and assuming there is a stronger know thet in place, we really would be pushing for more spending, lower taxes. this is not going to go down early. the reduction between president macron and the french president.
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it will beent -- seen with some skepticism. the -- it doesn't sound like anyone lead a government is particularly interested in italy leaving the eurozone. deftly some eurosceptics. people would not be ideologically in line to the consensus on where you should go. where do you see the sharpest flashpoints in terms of disagreeing in getting in the way of ongoing effort? imagine if all, there were to be government with
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the five-star movement. the movement have been talking about -- have a ways toy cover for these extra spending or fewer tax cut that would be a flashpoint. more generally, the talk at the , some sort of tighter , morels over the deficit bek sharing, that could resisted by italy. there are several flashpoints there. ifimpression bubble is that it is in place, italy is not
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really going to contribute over the future of the eurozone. it will be something that will be agreed by berlin and paris and they this document would be sent over. >> italy has had many different governments since world war ii. normally, some form of stability would be a surprise to read kind of government can be formed when you have -- we have never seen too much power on the right. do we have to go through fresh elections? >> you are absolutely right about the instability of italy. that is probably investors have services much signs of
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-- nervousness. the -- ihat shows the think you're absolutely right. first of all, we have this game of chicken going on. side -- they democratic party's thing know, we don't want to go through a collision with any of you. at the moment, a game of chicken is going on. continues, you will be left with the possibility of a newer collection. as i said, investors have been quite comes so far, but i wonder how long for? >> thank you for joining us. this is bloomberg.
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>> time now for the big the bloomberg business flash. broadcom is on track to win a majority of the 11 seats it is seeking. based on more than half of the vote for a cast going to information obtained by bloomberg. the result could mean broadcom could have $117 billion takers during a final shareholder bowl -- boat. that meeting with today. sisi us cited security concerns. broadcaster with 20 billion in debt to round up support for reorganization. it would spin off with clear
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channel and give senior lenders control. that is your bloomberg business flash. the market close is here's a look at some of the major averages. this is bloomberg. . . . mom you called?
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julia: "what'd you miss?" stocks rallying into the close. stock rallying at 288%. i am julia chatterley. i am scarlet fu. joe: and i am joe weisenthal. ourant to welcome you to closing bell coverage from every weekday from 4:00 p.m. until 5:00 p.m. eastern. scarlet: we begin with our market minute to trade war is so last week. today, the u.s. stocks rally. they extended in advance when it comes to the s&p and nasdaq. s&p holding at more than 1%, near session highs, the dow adding 344 points on the day. julia: pretty -- joe: pretty extraordinary. friday morning, the stock market ended up bouncing back. we had tweets this morning -- that is old news. scarlet: ray dalio kobe threat of a trade war a "political
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show," and house speaker paul ryan jumping in asking the president to reconsider tariffs on steel and aluminum. and the matt graves implications are actually small at this stage. scarlet: small at this stage, but it is all about what could unravel. i want to start with axa. this is french trading. a plunged almost 10% after a planned $15.3 billion purchase of xl group, which would be the company's biggest ever. it made investors a little nervous. ask the following the most since june of 2015. clearly investors not liking that news that much. i also wanted to mention square. the stoxx popping almost 10%. it is unclear why, but there is a latvian website that indicated square was going to be linking up with a coin. this is -- with bitcoin. this is old news. joe: it is old news.
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scarlet: once again, it is getting a pop from this bitcoin news. jack dorsey said in january that square had a relationship in bitcoin. julia: it is all about latvian scoops. [laughter] scarlet: it is all about bitcoin. joe: the bond market -- not a whole lot of doing today in the end. two-year yields unchanged, 10-year yields up early in the day. obviously a lot the action was in italy, or maybe a lack of action. let's take a long-term chart of italian 10-year yields. you can barely see anything going on. you put in a different phase of shoturozone crisis, they up. no one is worried about italy at the credit anymore. you can barely even say today's very minor selloff. julia: a big snooze.
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let's go to dollar mexico, further weakness, u.s. dollars, up.can see dollar cad i wanted to show you that. obviously a lot of questions being asked about ultimately what the trade considerations are out the canadian central banks going forward. right now, we have a typically free market acting canadian --timent to tyson by another to tighten another 54 basis points. blackrock said they do not believe it will be more than once, if they go want settle. the rest of the market is expecting to come a maybe three heights. the relatively -- two, maybe three hikes. if we are talking about canada staying pact, maybe three, maybe
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four for the united states, and the relative and policy spread here, the dollar versus the canadian dollar at the time when the fed has already seen the canadian dollar the deep underperformer here today. if you look at the shift higher than you would expect to see for the u.s., canada, policy spread some of the blue line, whic versus dollar cad. blackrock one of the first asking questions about the canadian policy part. joe: finally on commodities, oil and gold, it should be a pretty interesting week for oil. of course there is the big energy conference down in houston. you will be hearing some huge names. u.s. shale, stuff like that. the prospects of more oil coming out of the u.s., crude oil up 2%, over $62 a barrel, inventories, meanwhile, selling and treasuries, so
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a little bit of selling of the assets of gold down. those are today's market minutes. scarlet: for more on today's market action, let's bring in cameron price. massachusetts mutual mining effort the major indexes have turned positive for 2018. the doubt now up for the year. if you are rip van winkle falling asleep at christmas and woke up today, he would say well, it is pretty boring. scarlet: what was surprising today is there was not any new development on the trade front. there is pushed back today from, say, paul ryan, but there is no new confirmation of anything, and other countries did not act. cameron: i was really interested my desk -- i d s thereision by
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watching television -- sorry, guys -- but you are writing something, and your eyes need a break, you sort of look up and naturally get distracted by the headlines. every time i look at bloomberg tv or another business channel, the headlines were all around ariffs, so it seems like there was a lot of attention being paid to it, but there was no new news. joe: is it a matter of people think it will not happen, or is it that it is not the end of the world? a mixture of a few things. one, it is in a knowledge meant that the amounts thus far are relatively small. on the bloomberg terminal today, but we actually went back and looked at the economic impact of tariffs in 1992, and it was peanuts in a multi-trillion dollar economy. some members of congress are
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pushing back against the tariffs as well as there is a thing in the u.s. constitution called the commerce clause, which ultimately grants congress the power over international trade. over the years, that has been delegated to the white house, but there is nothing to say that congress could not take that power back with the full backing of the u.s. constitution. it is not a unilateral republican view that tariffs and sort of antagonism with the rest of the world, a single platform. likelyably makes it less that we are going to get some sort of complete conflagration, said earlierself today they were not expecting a trade war, so that also implies some comfort. julia: a trade war from the leverage back down.
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it is a concern to me, whether trade wara, a chinese going forward, but we are waiting for other decisions as ,ar as the chinese relationship fisa security. what about investors here? it is a jobs week. cameron: it is a jobs week, it is an ecb week, there are a lot of fed speakers as well before the blackout period starts. julia: there is always a reason to care about, but given the sensitivity we have had in recent weeks -- cameron: it is not about the job, it is about the wages. it is always about the wages. we had a starting way -- wagetlingly strong number. that will give both the market and he said confidence to that the underlying inflation trend is picking up steam. joe: when we saw the selloff in
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early february, there was a lot of talks, the short volatility funds, people with the risk parity and algorithms -- i do not know how legitimate any of that is -- what does it feel like things have washed out, that we are at some new, stable equilibrium for now? know about a not stable igloo rim, but there is an at , but to a large extent, you cannot read into a large move like you had today that he might have done a year ago, because statistically it is less relevant. when the stock market goes up and down a percent on a given day, you cannot really read that much into it. . i guess that is how i would say that auld also suggest lot of these quantitative funds have not really recovered. much of their losses.
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in some sense, they are hurting, and it probably derisks across the board, so they are running smaller nominal positions, which makes them less accessible coming forth. julia: cameron crise, thank you so much for that. happy monday. coming up, donald trump is doubling down on tariffs. what his tough talk on trade will mean for emerging markets. we will discuss next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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martin: i am mark crumpton with first word news. president trump is not backing down from threats he made iraq retaliates against his new tariffs on steel and aluminum. he double down today during a white house meeting with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. pres. trump: they have trade barriers -- they also have tariffs, by the way -- but they also have trade barriers far worse than tariffs. mark: some republican lawmakers, including house speaker paul ryan, are questioning the president's tariff proposal and are questioning his decisions. a former advisor to the president says he does not land t plan to cooperate with a
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subpoena from robert mueller. newsunberg told bloomberg -- they want me down there on friday. i am not paying the money to go down there. he said "what is he going to do? he is so tough, let's see what they are going to do. i am not going to spend 40 hours going over emails. i have a life." matteo renzi said today he will resign as democratic party secretary after the new government is formed. speaking at headquarters in rome, renzi said his party will not support the new government. he called the newly elected leaders corrupt and said they had it on their hands. the results were a stunning loss italy's democratic party, which receives 25% of the votes in 2015. the alleged victims of the most in your vatican official ever charged in the catholic church
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-- sex abuse crisis began giving testimony in court today. australian george pal is accused of sexually assaulting multiple people decades ago. he served as pope francis' finance minister. he denies all of the accusations. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" president trump's statements on tariffs on steel and aluminum imports what this means for emerging markets who have large exports of steel. we want to bring in geoffrey dennis. great to speak with you again. a lot of people have made the point for the u.s., however inflammatory these headlines sound, it is a pretty small portion of the u.s. economy to read what does this mean for
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countries that export metals to the united states, countries like was ill, korea, russia, mexico? give us some context here. geoffrey: those you mentioned are certainly the most exposed u.s. steel industry, and imports of steel, i should say. so there is some sort of potential hit for those economies. but i do not think that is the real problem here. i think the real problem will be whether this escalates in terms of retaliation from other countries, particularly if you ,ook at canada and europe whether this degenerates into a global trade war. emerging global markets that will be hurt. china will be hurt, by the way. i think the wider ramifications are what is really important here for the long-term. how do you weight
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those risks? as you say, the tail risk or the real risk is the 10% escalations, but then we could call a trade war. is this your best case scenario, or what are the odds of that actually happening? geoffrey: it is certainly not our best case at this point. aluminum tariff does not impact china particularly closely, so china is playing a relatively quiet, good game here anyeing somewhat calm in response. what will be interesting to see is what the europeans will do. we were led to believe that long-term this will not degenerate into a trade war. heads will prevail. i do not think anybody's scenario for the markets locally factor in a real trade war. will and utterly start to make comparisons to the 1930's, which is obviously went
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the great depr we are certainly not changing our forecast. it is probably going to be manageable, even though obviously this particular move by the white house is quite negative for sentiments, it has obviously pulled the markets down in the last couple of days. julia: it is just one issues that investors are grappling with at this moment, geoffrey. i know you saw the bull market ng, and i know you've seen that in the past three to look for indicators. talk us through the comparisons. what is different this time around? geoffrey: when we had the correction, which was late january until about the second week of february, what is interesting to us as it did not feel like a serious emerging market crisis. number one, emerging markets went down no more than the u.s. went down, just over 10%. normally in corrections, emerging markets would underperformed the u.s., maybe
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by as much as 600 basis points. secondly, the dollar did not rally that much. we have had the view that a lower dollar is very good for emerging markets. during the correction was less than normal. important oft 14 a all, latin america during the corrections, asia did the work. let's and seen as the highest risk region within the emerging market asset class. with the heavy technology, and in asia, which were the big winners last year, as opposed to the start. clearly is a global trade war develops into something more serious, markets may well come under pressure again, but that individual correction, i think one of your speakers said earlier, it shook out some of the really speculative positions in the market and was actually quite healthy, and e.m. held
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up pretty well. scarlet: we have a chart that highlights this, that emerging markets may have reason to believe this time is different. with the correction, we did see biggest. suffered the it pales in comparison to the 2013 taper tantrum and the development of the chinese young. what could change that -- yen. what could change that? the orange line is where we are now, versus the taper tantrum, the red line. the white line is the devaluation in may 2013. corporate fundamentals are fairly solid. what is the turnout? geoffrey: it is a very broad question. the most important thing, we believe, relative to 2013 is that emerging market generallyls are
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somewhat better. they are not better across the board, but they are generally better. all is during of the2013 taper tantrum, dollar was rising, and that means emerging markets particularly were vulnerable to losing large u.s. s of money to the this time around, the dollar has been going down pretties consistently since early 2016, and that sustains the flows into e.m. clearly if you were to get a massive selloff in u.s. treasuries and bond yields were to go very high -- not our best case, by the way -- that would bring the money very quickly back to the dollar. since it is not our best case, we think the trade situations have not -- you know, really threats and our best case on the dollar, which is down, and our best case on yields, which is flat from here. julia: if there anything that worries you in the speed, that people get back into risk as a
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result of this correction that worries you, and if not,e the tn emerging markets that investors should be getting into? geoffrey: one of the interesting things -- i'm not sure it worries me -- but with emerging-market equity flows, you hardly saw any pullback at all. you had one week of minor outflows during this correction, then the money came roaring back. retail put a lot of money to work. if you like people getting very bullish, that inevitably makes you a little bit concerned. the thing that would make me most concerns -- apart from a trade issue -- is the point i just made, which is where you would see a sharp rise in u.s. inflation, a sharp rise in bond yields, a rally in the dollar. that is what we are watching most of all. thefour big markets we like most are russia and brazil, both of which are doing very well this year, korea, which is doing much less well, and indonesia. that is our focus. sector wise, you have a big call
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that favors financials over technology. the financials are doing much better this year. julia: brilliant. ubs market strategies head geoffrey dennis. thank you for joining us. paschal donohoe looking to avoid a hard border with northern ireland as a result of the brexit talks. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julia: "what'd you miss?" british prime minister theresa may reiterated her position last week that it can leave the customs union and avoid the hard border on northern ireland. ireland's finance minister joins bloomberg today to discuss the negotiations.
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donohoe: as these negotiations continue and reach a successful end point, i hope, from the point of view of ireland, we have seen the views of the have outlined and their negotiation approach, and we support the work that is underway. mark: theresa may wants to lead the customs market. she did say friday she wants to stay aligned in many areas, keeping eu regulations. mr. donohoeis that the sort of e wanted to hear? mr. donohoe: i think the approach misses may outlined is helpful to have that clarified at this point. it was also important to hear her talk about the membership of
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a number of different european agencies. she outlined a canada and the region approach that would not work. she did emphasize two different custom policies that they raise their last summer. from our point of view, of course, for it to be maintained, that is really important for us. was paschalt donohoe, finance minister of ireland, speaking earlier today on "bloomberg markets." coming up next, the plan to make president xi perpetual, at least formalizing that, and deliver on what he is promising. we have the latest and the to do list next. this is bloomberg. ♪ mom, dad, can we talk?
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mark: i am mark crumpton was first word news. with the daca program scheduled to be expired today, hundreds are marching toward capitol hill to demand congress acts to protect people from deportation. attorney general jeff sessions announced that the administration would end the program today, march 5, calling exerciseconstitutional of authority by the executive branch in the obama administration." october dreamers until 6 to reapply for their permit. president trump blamed the
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democrats for failing to pass legislation, saying "it is march 5, and the democrats are nowhere to be found on daca. we are ready to make a deal." house speaker paul ryan made a rare public break with the president, rejecting the onsident's plans for tariffs steel and aluminum, saying "we are extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war and are urging the white house to not advance with this plan." the head of the united nations says a deal between iran and six other insuranc nations, aimed at ensuring tehran is not develop nuclear weapons, must be a success. >> as of today, i can say that nuclearimplementing its commitments third it is essential that iran continues to do so. poa would have failed, it would be a great loss.
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mark: president trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the united states from that landmark agreement, and last year, the president has refused to confirm to congress that the deal is of national security interests. egypt gave a warm welcome today to saudi arabia crown prince. he will meet with tell fatah al -sisi in hopes of discussing their ongoing partnership. of qatar of promoting extremism across the region. people travel from the u.k. and the united states later this week. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. breakup oft's get a today's market action. stocks gaining on the day. the s&p 500 now has two straight
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days of advance, as well as the nasdaq. up by a hefty 336 points. joe: all of this trade war talk not concerning investors. explainedameron crise it well. congress does have authority over the u.s. trade agreement, so there is a counter effect to what the resident is proposing here. we want to give you some headlines as well, most on your bloomberg screen, that nordstrom has rejected a $50 a share offer by the nordstrom family group. nordstrom's shares are moving in after hours as well. the reason is because it is inadequate, that $50 a share price tag, and they are discussing terminating the session we have talked in the past, julia, how difficult it has been for the family to keep the company private. it is to significantly cost intensive. it is a tough industry.
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annual session of the national people's congress in changess constitutional to allow president xi to stay beyond his second term and perhaps structuring his economy under president xi. with some insight into the objective, here is nicholas .onsonery he has been researching and analyzing china now for 10 years. it must feel like a longer time, actually. talk about it right now. of how an overview important is the idea that president sheikh of the place now for many, many years, that's president xi -- president xi could be in place now for many, many years. the ntp is the one window we have into china
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policymaking for the year, and the chinese president has recently determined that, the common party, anyway, that they will remove term limits on the presidency, and this is the first national people's congress to kick off potentially seven more terms, so it is an important tone setting exercise. obviously relevant to this question of whether there the will approachy some of these. joe: a target is 6.5% gdp growth, but they did not express any interest of going above that. there was a change in the language of the upside scenario. what does that say for economic goals going forward? nicholas: it is basically a story of continuity. pursued a pretty aggressive strategy of deleveraging in the financial sector this year. in the past year, the message is that will continue into 2018, and the government, to the extent that they have to accept a little bit slower growth, they
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do that, and the message is they will be willing to do that. scarlet: we have a chart on the bloomberg, this is china's achilles heel, because you have strong gdp growth also counterbalanced by the debt. when you look at some other things that china has announced, cutting deficit from 2.6% to 3%, billion forut ¥8 individuals, what else you take away from the priorities? is china undermining -- not undermining growth, but understandin understating growt? nicholas: that is the hope. my general view on this, keep in mind come in 2017, china had congress, which is a once every five year event, and it is important to keep the economy stable. the lower deficit target this year simply reflects that. it is very aggressive to stabilize the economy. like i said, i think the macro goals are basically unchanged.
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deleveraging, progress, i think that is the big risk for china this year. you guys talked a little bit earlier about policy and where that is headed. it is an incremental reform approach. it is not a substantial and rapid change. julia: how open are they to keeping president trump happy as well, acknowledging the fact that, as far as donald trump is concerned, particularly as far as the trade deficit is concerned, we have president negotiatoreconomic in washington at the same time as president trump announcing the tariff last week over's aluminum and steel. i cannot imagine what the chinese are thinking. nicholas: the headline message from china has basically been that everything is stable, everything is fine, they see this as the latest kind of chapter in u.s.-china trade tensions, that nothing is different. i think that is wrong.
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i think there is an effort on the u.s. side to take concerted action. party, fundamentale approach to the state-run economy and how to use it has not changed. joe: nicholas, who takes the pain? it is one thing to say we want to cut taxes, we want to reduce the debt, we want to maintain stable growth, in that scenario, there is no loser. if you are going to get all of these things, there has got to be trade-offs from somewhere. economy endsmestic up eating some of these? nicholas: i think they are not likely to be born this year. this is debt-driven, economic worry that probably has several years still to run. the album is that the labor reforms today the roads the growth potential down the road. i think 6.5% is reasonable.
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household consumptions grew very strongly last year, and they are expected to grow strongly this year-. interestingly. , that was largely driven by debt. year,old debt grew last so there is a structural change, but again, it is not this fundamental shift for a sustainable growth model that we would like to see. scarlet: to what extent do the city's -- and we are talking beijing or shanghai -- end up seeing not a downgrade but a lesser opportunity for growth in favor of some of the more insured cities, whether it is somewhere in the middle of the country, has china tries to make sure there are enough jobs and opportunities for the people there after runaway growth in the big cities? nicholas: what is interesting is the government is actively trying to curtail immigration to the big cities. the conference this week is revitalization.
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and set of what has been the policy orientation for the last few years, putting structures in place to support people who are moving into cities, now is trying to encourage them to stay closer to home. there is a downside risks to that, because it means they are forced basically to accept maybe lower paying jobs, and there is lost potential. eurasia was saying the 2018 target suggests lower growth and a fiscal drag, and then china says the fiscal , which includes other chief activities as critical, remains expansionary to about 10% of gdp this year. we are talking about huge expansion to 10% of gdp or a fiscal drag on concerns. nicholas: keep in mind the fiscal deficit is not going away. studies at thee local level, and we have found that local governments spend 44%
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more than they take in in revenues. this is a huge problem, and this is for the key structural reforms that they need to address. scarlet: wow. nicholas consonery, rom rhodium group, thank you. joe: coming up, a fighting labor market. contributing. are we will have that story next. and you can send me a tweet. i post clips, links, observations. let me know what you want me to ask our guests. scarlet: you are on there all the time. joe: all the time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julia: breaking news crossing the bloomberg that republicans that cochran will resign, april 1. he says his health has been an ongoing challenge. not much time, though. republicanippi senator thad cochran there. scarlet: employers are starting to hire workers in the tightening u.s. job market, and now that marijuana is legal in nine states in washington, d.c., that means more than one in five american adults can eat, drink, smoke marijuana as they please without a drug test. is bloombergw jenny kaplan, who reported on the story from l.a. thanks for joining us. this is strictly about marijuana and not about other drug tests for other things like opioids, right? jenny: it is. there are also
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decreasing number of drug tests overall, but the greater legality of marijuana in nine states. 29 states so far have legalized medical marijuana. it is just something that is no longer a plus for employers to do. they are losing out employees with a tightening labor market, so more and more are saying this is not our interest anymore, we need to cut away from this drug screening. this isny, how much of changing attitudes about drugs, and how much is it about a tight labor market? qqq people having troubles finding workers. jenny: -- you hear people having trouble finding workers. jenny: i think it is a combination of california, colorado, it is legal, and in the case of colorado, it has been legal for a couple of years now. if employers are doing this -- if employees are doing this on their off time, it is a legal recreational habit, that does
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not matter to us. there are still companies that are testing for other kinds of drugs. based a want to make sure that their employees are not inebriated on the job. want employees who are drunk on the job, and they do not want employees who are high on the job. it is a combination. if the labor market was not so tight and this would not be happening so much, but eventually, it would probably happen either way. joe: some residences are empowered by their insurance companies companies to make sure the drug test their employees. in terms of the different things that need to fall into place, how big of an issue is that, that for legal and liability reasons given that companies would still have to test for marijuana? jenny: our reporting shows of those insurance reasons are more of a sticking point for jobs like, you know, if you are working on a factory floor, if you are doing something with manufacturing where it is really a liability, there are many more worker's comp. issues.
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ares also a deal if you working in finance, text, an office job where you do not have to worry about the, moving parts. those kind of businesses when you are not worrying about a lot of injuries, the insurance is less of a qualm. in some of those other places, i think it will be a long time before we see any change when it comes to marijuana policy. scarlet: what about government jobs? at the state level, you mentioned states like colorado where marijuana has been legal for a wild. what about state government jobs and federal government jobs? still aarijuana is federally illegal drug, so it will be a while before we see any sort of government policy change. i think that is sort of the being a schedule one narcotics, according to the government, so i do not think we will see any change for some time before we see that
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designation changed. julia: wait and see what attorney general jeff sessions has to say about this. ginny, great chat. jenny kaplan there. a conference is underway in houston, and our own alix steel got down with the ceo's to talk about the state of the ceo industry and how trump's proposed tariffs could impact their bottom line. that conversation coming right up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the energy conference is underway in houston and bringing together some of the biggest names in energy and finance. our alix steel sat down with patrick pouyanne to talk about his company's growth. 5%rick: the plan is to move
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each year, so we could do that. business, theity sustainable, so trying to get more that sustainable investment, you do not do that if the price is high, so the best way is to show the money. in libya,put assets right, and in over the weekend, production went off-line because of some issues there. how do you understand and why do you want to take it on? how do you understand the geopolitical environment? patrick: we know that this country -- we also know that there are forces in the country, to be able to produce as virtually as they can.
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we managed because of that touation, we managed convince, because they wanted to in u.s. shale, you know, so that is good. have $160 billion, a big share, so i am sure having access, it is plenty, potentially, for the future, yes, immediately, although we did not plan for that, and when we announced 5%, we did not plan, and now we have the extra cash to return to the company. i do not choose where you find oil and gas. sometimes it is nice countries, nice shale oil. haveou have libya, so you perfectt, it is no
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place. it is not exasperated alix: we have heard about -- it does not exist. alix: we heard about potential tariffs on steel and aluminum. how do you feel about that? patrick: i am against all of these commercial wars. political is a problem, not only in the u.s., latin, europe, you know, in france, i think it is a problem, but with globalization, it is rejected somewhat. it is quite positive for many people around the world. i think it is better to try to embrace it. i'm very concerned, because we are a shareholder in a u.s. oil company. if the u.s. has put some tariffs
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on solar because of two companies -- one of them was owned by chinese shareholders. if you just imagine u.s. companies because of some foreign compass se company which complains. but the solar market will grow, and i think steel and aluminum, has beeny chain today organized, from mexico, canada, they have recognize the supply chain. at the end of the customer will have to pay -- alix: and the customer maybe you at the end of the pipeline. -- the: the question is voters, people we elect, you know, and i am not sure you create more jobs. jobs byot create manufacturing steel in the u.s.
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it is very little jobs. people want solar, solar panels. these create jobs. so this has a negative impact on the global market. at the end, the question is -- will it create jobs or destroy jobs? that it does good for the u.s. economy, but he will damage, it is no good for the world economy, so again, i do not see -- by the way, as a ceo of a global company, i am not in favor of bidding wars. i think all of this will come because it is liable. julia: that was alix steel interviewing patch up we energy conference in houston -- interviewing patrick pouyanne at the energy conference in houston. joe: this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: "what'd you miss?" u.s. stocks -- at least the s&p and nasdaq -- rising for the second day. joe: what trade war? scarlet: exactly.
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target reports fourth-quarter results before the b ell. julia: and don't miss this -- u.s. secretary treasury steven mnuchin testifying before the house subcommittee. scarlet: that does "what'd you miss?" technology" isrg up next. joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> you are watching "bloomberg technology" and here is a check of first world news. president trump isn't backing down of threats he made to target eu any fractured cars if the block retaliated against his
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time to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum. he doubled down in a meeting with israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu. barriers thatrade they are than tariffs, far worse than tariffs, and if they want to do something we will tax their cars that they send them here, like water. >> protesters marched from the ultimate demanding congressional action to protect hundreds of thousands of young people from deportation. the daca program is set to and today. the meantime, president trump blends democrats for failing to pass legislation and says republicans are ready to make a deal. lawyers for bill cosby are trying to stop users from


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