tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg March 18, 2018 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
david: it is 7:00 a.m. you're in hong kong, and we are live from bloomberg's headquarters. our top stories this monday morning. more turmoil in washington. reports that the u.s. has dumped the economic dialogue with china are now being denied. we are expecting a new head of the pboc that yi gang will succeed his predecessor. betty: it is just after 7:00 p.m. on this sunday evening, wrapping up the weekend. meet the new boss, same as the old boss. putin wins by a long flat -- by a landslide. finance ministers head to the
g20. we will be live in when authorities -- we will be live in buenos aires. ♪ it looks like central bank chiefs will have a starring role this week. in just a few hours, we will be getting confirmation about who will lead the pboc. it looks like it will be yi gang , the deputy governor, which signals continuity. speaking of which, jake powell will also be in the spotlight come wednesday. lots of folks, before he was appointed, had said he would be jealous -- janet yellen's 2.0. i think we will find out if that will be the case this week. david: whether he will be like has had assessor. -- like his predecessor.
we do get the update to the dot plot. new zealand, the philippines, indonesia, taiwan, but the philippines the only one where he could make a reasonable argument that it will move. betty: let's quickly check where the markets here in the u.s. ended on friday, which had quite a bit to do with the economic numbers we thought earlier that morning. consumer sentiment getting this multi-year high. the highest level in over a decade. that helped investor sentiment. the doubt adding on the 73 points, the nasdaq lagging the other 2%. the others are unchanged. we will see if they continue their momentum. david: tencent coming out this week. new zealand is the first one up and running. when you look at futures in australia, we are getting that opening number.
let's wait for the market to get warmed up. we are looking at the slightly more reasonable bid coming through the market. 2.7% is the pricing surrounding 10 year bonds in japan. australia might be different. politics still very much in play. support for shinzo abe's support is dropping. that is according to the newspaper. there are lots of things to consider. we will get a mixed start to markets here in the asia-pacific. ramy inocencio has your first word news. trump hasident donald launched is most correct attack on the justice department investigation into alleged russian meddling in the 2016 election. name for theer's first time, saying the probe should never have been started, and uses capital letters to call
the investigation in which hunt. he also attacked former deputy director john mccain, who was fired on friday. a fourth putin has won term with more than 75% of the vote. that keeps them in the kremlin until 2024, and makes him russia's longest serving leader since stalin. he will run an economy stagnating for the first -- the longest recession in decades. he will also face sanctions for allegedly meddling in the elections and a poisoning of an official in great britain. reports say that russia has spent years building up its nerve agent inventory. forest johnson told the bbc that the u.k. can show that moscow has perfected a fascination by nerve agent. russia's ambassador to the u.k. dismissed that, saying a chemical weapons laboratories may have been involved. the bank of england governor
says digital currencies may make them a threat to the system. meeting, he g20 says cryptocurrencies could undermine confidence is not regulated property. their combined market value is less than 1% of global economic output, and they are not yet substitutes for traditional currencies. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm remy innocence year. this is bloomberg. as you mentioned, more turmoil today in washington. the secretary for international affairs says he misspoke when he says the economic dialogue with china is over. >> the administration was disappointed with the results. because there was not a path back toward a market orientation. so i have discontinued the
comprehensive economic dialogue. betty: however, now david malpass says he is backtracking. mike mckee is in one of czarist for the finance meeting -- is there for the finance meeting. what was happening there? it appears that the undersecretary got over his skis. aeve mnuchin arrives here to chilly reception because the rest of the g20 do not like the u.s. steel and aluminum tariffs. thoses told me that tariffs were a response to chinese provocation. china at points in its recent history has moved toward markets. they have joined international institutions. they were allowing market pricing within their own economy. but in recent years, that has stalled or reversed. that is a concern for the world, because it means the world
cannot grow as fast as it should. michael: secretary mnuchin's job is to jig up international support against china. the u.s. is set to announce sanctions for intellectual -- intellectual property theft. they want to have the allies on board. that they be more difficult -- that may be more difficult due to the tariffs. we obtained a copy of the minister's final draft theunique, and it suggests biggest danger to global growth is a country like the u.s. turning inward. betty: what happens today? michael: monday morning, the ministers are going to get together and talk about the economic outlook with a twist, because global growth is strong right now. they will not make individual forecasts for what is going right. they will talk about what could go wrong. one of the biggest risk factors is the u.s. may find themselves on that list.
david: david here in hong kong. it comes down to the final munich a. it -- communique. it is tricky for them. do you think there will be a battle over what that will be? michael: they seem to have finessed the arguments. last year, the was a big fight because secretary mnuchin reviews to sign on to the language committing the countries to free trade. they will try to put in language used by the leaders last year, stressing the importance of trade. they think they can get that through. the rest of it looks like it will be standard stuff from the g20 finance minister's pledged to maintain stable currencies, and to work to improve the global economy. but there may be something on cryptocurrencies. we will keep our eye on that. they are concerned of those being used for illicit reasons. mckee live for us
out of buenos aires. from argentina, let's switch to china. the next few hours should bring confirmation of who is taking the reins at the people's bank of china. some say it is the deputy governor, yi gang, who is set to secede zhou xiaochuan. tom joins us now. what does that signal in terms of strategy for the pboc? tom: it certainly signals continuity in terms of pboc policies, because he has been the deputy governor for about a decade. he has the current governor's nu mber to. o. yes and part of the bank since 1997. he steered the bank through the financial crisis and also the moves to liberalize and take a
part of the reserve currency basket, and impose capital controls and crackdown on risk in the system. zhou xiaochuan is seen as having groomed yi gang for this position. they say it is a positive are investors because you have a steady hand on the helm of this ship moving forward. it is a more powerful central bank now. given those additional powers to rewrite and write new regulations for the financial sector. the challenge, many would say, is complex. whether it is the central bank and its role in overseeing debt while ensuring there is not a dramatic growth -- dramatic slowdown in growth, or seeing that it is matched to some degree with what the fed is doing to ensure there is not a and tocapital outflows,
ensure that it has improved for the markets, particularly the bond markets. some key challenges for yi gang, but he is the man who has been touted by zhou xiaochuan. investors will probably take part in the fact that he is unknown quantity. -- he is a known quantity. betty: president xi jinping has won a second term as president. not a surprise. no opposing votes for his next term. it is significant nonetheless, right? is. it president in favor of xi taking his second term, as opposed to zero opposition or abstentions. it is not a surprise that happens, but this is the first unanimous vote we have seen for about a quarter of a century. then, you have the state run media splashing huge photos of xi jinping on newspapers.
underlying that we have moved away from collective leadership and underscoring and reminding us that we needed to be reminded that he is the most powerful leader here in china for the last two decades. another important man who was nominated and confirmed to the vice presidency was a key ally for xi jinping. he is now going to take on an important role in navigating the u.s.-china relationship. he draws on experience and ties the political community in washington and financial and economic communities. have the re-conflation of the prime minister, who has less power than his predecessors, given that most power has moved on to the
economic advisor to the president. we will watch to see if he gets a vice premier confirmation. a few more nominations to watch for here in beijing. betty: thank you. tom mackenzie beijing, our china correspondent. we will have more on the new pboc governor in a moment. our next guest says it makes no difference who is in charge, because the governor must always answer to president xi. this hour, how the growing turmoil in washington could affect president trump's plans for the u.s. economy. "bloomberg daybreak: asia this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is "daybreak: asia."
the new head of the people's bank of china, reports say that up, >>yi gang is to step >> the 15 year veteran finally retiring. with lelands this miller. first, i have to ask, do you think we are making too much of this transition at the pboc? leland: sure. i know there are a lot of traders checking boxes. known quantity, traveled internationally, the deputy to zhou. from a markets perspective, this is nothing but good news. while yi gang will run the pboc, he will run china's monetary policy. xi jinping will be the boss and everything will be run from the top. that is how china is going to go now. betty: in terms of stability and
protect ability, that is a good? wing leland: that is -- that is a good thing? leland: that is a good thing. someone who is unknown and you throw in more uncertainty where people are unsure about the trade site. might as looking to economic policy as stable as possible. betty: despite these moves and we talk about the regulatory changes, you say it is going to get quite interesting in the coming months. why? leland: president trump is itching to do something big. we know 301 is coming. people have been trained to not really think that president trump is going to do what he says he is going to do. the tariffs were a surprise, but firsthing from trump's year has been him announcing something big, and maybe the reality is not as bad as people think. but it is coming, it is coming down the pipeline. the question is how big? they want to make it bigger, but
have not settled on it. the question is not whether the president will move forward with it -- betty: it is how big? 1 are we talking -- david: are we talking just restrictions? leland: those are being looked at closely. you will have investment restrictions. it will be a different beast moving forward. these things are under debate, and the big thing for president trump is do the rest, but give me a big number for tariffs. the answer is how do you say that the chinese should give us back $100 billion of that trade surplus, and say a number like $30 billion or $60 billion does not sound very round. i think we will see how big he will get that headline number up to. david: a lot of people say that when you talk about steel and
aluminum, china will ignore that. with 301, they are going to respond to that. should we be concerned? leland: i think you are right on the tariffs. it is not a big deal for china. it is probably a good thing because the whole world is mad at the united states. the 301 depends on how big the president goes. markets have been prepared for a 301 action since bob lighthizer took the position, came into the white house, and announced that they were going to do something. 301 could be anything. it could be very small, tariffs, tariffs on products, sanctions on companies. it could be tariffs on whole sectors or subsectors. the tariffs on industries is what scares beijing, because that is when you get into a trade war and you force beijing to respond not just rhetorically, but with actions of its own. david: i know your firm has done a lot of work on this. what is the base case?
what should i be prepared for? what sort of trade activity should be frontloaded ahead of the gates closing? leland: this changes so much. a lot of this is a reaction to 232 and how many exemptions you ended up with over the next week plus. right now, they are looking at a headline number that allows the president in midterms to say he went hard on china, but does not blanket a sector like telecom, semiconductors. it does not mean the president will not get fired up one day and decide to go guns blazing, but right now it looks like it will be a headline number that looks good enough for markets, it looks good enough for his base, but it does not start a real trade war. this is changing on a daily basis. betty: changing on a daily tweet, it seems like. what did you make of the unanimous vote for president xi?
and now him ruling without any term limits? leland: the timing of this is very curious. this was a done deal at the end of last year. betty: what was? would: that president xi be in the party constitution, and would essentially be the chairman for life. at the same time, this did not need to happen now. there did not need to be a formalization of this now, and it is a bit odd. it probably comes from overconfidence or insecurity. of the president. the reality is it was always done, so he did not need to do anything formally, but he did do something formally. i think the problem is not with the short-term. the short-term markets will like this. betty: he has even more power to do that. leland: his fingerprints are on the economy right now. the problem is you look down the road to the medium-term. if you have a currency crisis,
and you will over the next 18 months to two years, it is very jinping'svorce xi economy or country from what is happening. he will be involved in part of this and it will be harder for others to take blame and him to cast blame. betty: how do you think this changes his dynamic with different leaders? i am thinking of president trump, because at some point, he will meet with president trump again, but coming from a much stronger position, you could say. someone who is ruling for life here in china. does it change the dynamic? leland: i don't think it does one bit. the entire white house is focused on one thing, and that is midterms. they want to make sure the republicans win enough seats to ensure there is not a democratic wave and repercussions for the white house because of that. everything is focused on november. once you get past that and start
worrying about the actual potential u.s.-china trade policy, trade relations, and from there, you start looking down the road. but nothing happens until november because of the midterms. has an essential role for overseeing the economy. is that another way of saying market forces will take a backseat, or are those two things not necessarily different sides of the same coin all-time? leland: there is nothing we are saying that suggests market forces will play a greater role in the chinese economy. the problem you have is all the china watchers see dynamics happen, and they say, how do we put this into context for supply and demand? how does this make sense there a market economy lens, and that is not what china is right now. you can talk about deleveraging, all of these important things. xi jinping is not looking at these things from a leader, -- a leader standpoint.
i think we can expect that going forward. david: leland miller, china beige book president. one feature we would like to bring to your attention, the interactive tv function. watch us live, catch up with all the interviews you may have missed. if you have questions, get them into us. we have a lot of guests coming up. check that out. lots of charts and securities you can dig into. a kind reminder for bloomberg subscribers, check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪ betty: a quick check on the
however, we are told investors are concerned the allegedly $2 trillion investment saudi arabia wants and the impact of shale. david: the crown prince is said to meet apple. talks include the u.s. president and senior officials in washington, but mohammed bin isman -- being $1.5 billion are paid for oil shales off of abu dhabi. it will pay for the development of crude and national gas. they have worked in the energy sector since 1939. it also generates electricity at a solar plant and produces and sells gas. david: coming up on "daybreak: asia," we will talk to you politics in washington with the
oh hi sweetie, i just want to show you something. xfinity mobile: find my phone. [ phone rings ] look at you. this tech stuff is easy. [ whirring sound ] you want a cookie? it's a drone! i know. find your phone easily with the xfinity voice remote. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around.
david: it is 7:30 in the morning, and look at that. kind of one of those i hope it is fog days here in hong kong. 30 minutes from the open up markets, major markets in the asia-pacific. betty: making sure there is not a lot of damage from vat. 7:30 in new york, pretty sunny, still chilly but getting the fence of spring. i am betty liu in new york. david: i am david ingles in hong kong. you are watching daybreak asia. let's get an update on the first word news with ramy inocencio. ramy: good morning. ahead of the next 220 meeting there is confusion about america's economic hotline with china. there were reports washington
had doped a long-standing dialogue which was -- dumped a long-standing dialogue to let the world's top economies communicate. a senior treasury official said washington was disappointed at beijing's expanding role in the economy, then it -- he admitted he mistook -- misspoke. there is a new successor for the pboc. injoined the central bank 1997 and has served as mr. joe's deputy. congress will approve him on monday. the south korean foreign minister said donald trump probably surprised kim jong-un by agreeing so quickly to meet for talks. he called the decision extremely courageous, saying he believes the north korean leader is now considering his position before responding publicly. he says seoul and washington have made it clear nothing is
being offered in return for those talks. and the australia asean summit has urged north korea to shutdown its nuclear program immediately. describe thee ballistic missile program as a threat to the region and called for complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the korean peninsula. the summit also committed to free and open markets, vowing to resist all forms of protectionism. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: thank you. now that markets in australia and new zealand counting down to the open in tokyo and seoul. sophie is here with us and what is top of mind? sophie: aside from the buildup to jay powell's first fomc meeting as chair and the meeting and when osiris, politics not -- buenos aires, politics not far
from mind, and prudent winning a fourth term. shinzo abe looking on, seeing his support take a tumble. there is a drop in public support which the chief cabinet secretary said was a grim message from the people and the government takes seriously. they want lawmakers to call for abe to resign. someone had been critical of the permits to her. when it comes to the lineup, japanese investors will have february trade data to chew on. the first trade deficit is october 15 -- 2015. imports slowing, communication and equipment. japan's flow of data will be interesting to watch for as well. it will give us an idea of how much the jgb holdings have become. we will learn they have set up 40% of the jgb market. ahead of the open, let's check in on japanese futures. we are seeing a hint of a softer open. when you look at the mood for
korean futures, geopolitics remain a front and center. we have a south korea and united states to hold biennial defense denuclearizing pyongyang and on the china front we are holding out for february home price data, expected to reinforce a general trend of cooling prices anticipated for the year and reports of the pboc governor and trade tension between china and the u.s. that is bringing more to light because of what the treasury official had to say, backtracking hyman's -- his comments. betty: thank you so much. let's look ahead to the markets here on wall street. we have the fed, the big deal news, a round of earnings and economic data likely to dominate trading. su keenan with a closer look. we have had some news about an hour ago on that deal. su: it is official, looking like it will be a very interesting
monday in the m&a. caci stepping in with $2.2 billion for this tech company, , raisingcompany, caci their fifty-year guidance. but the real headline is they are coming in after general dynamics and csra had already $.75 share.$40 take a look how they close because they will be moving in the monday session. you had with caci coming in with this new bid, essentially a $44 a share bid, likely to scuttle the offer or tentative agreement that already exists, and it would, if they are successful, scotch what is the biggest acquisition ever by general dynamics which is a company that makes tanks and nuclear submarines. it is 17 times larger than caci in market cap.
it is a david and goliath deal for this infotech company which dealing with security, computer security and other issues companies need. also likely to be very much in the news this week is at&t time warner, $85.4 billion deal. the justice department trying to squash the deal. analysts say at&t has the possibility to pull it out. it is one of the biggest , and itt of our time could say how we as americans end up paying a consuming streaming movies. -- and consuming streaming movies. amazon and netflix and other streaming videos, a lot of analysts are asking the question, what happens to time warner if they are left standing alone and the deal doesn't take place? you will take trading on these companies has more answers become clear. like we are't seem
easing ourselves quietly and softly into monday. still trying to consider the drama surrounding the dollar, fresh economic earnings, likely to play out in trade deals, give us the highlights. su: the dollar very much in focus because the d.c. drama has indicated a lot of investors and international investors ditching the dollar and political drama rises. let's go to bloomberg real quick. 82 36. what we have in the blue line is the u.s. dollar. the white line is a political risk index. as it goes up, the dollar has dropped. we are seeing a lot of institutions move away from the dollar, so that raises the question as we head into this week, a lot of questions about the special counsel looking into the russian involvement in the u.s. election, what happens with that investigation. the special prosecutor could impact the dollar. let's look at other issues.
earnings are front and center. we have three very important companies coming up. nike will be reporting earnings. they lost their ceo last week, resigned last thursday. unspecified issues having to do with conduct the company says. there could be a second executive following him out the door and nike under pressure, having a sales slump in north america, big rivalry with adidas. let's talk about fedex. there is a report from barons that they are going to blow out the quarter. another big beat despite competition, and tencent very much in focus and it denies it will be involved in any way investing in a ripple that was almost up 7% friday. betty: bitcoin, all that in the spotlight. political stuff in the spotlight, republican senators pushing back at the firing of
the fbi deputy director. president trump took aim at special counsel robert lawler. he said, why does the robert mueller team have 13 hardened democrats, big crooked hillary supporters and zero republicans? recently added, does anyone think this is fair, yet there is no collusion. let's bring in the economics senior fellow jacob kierkegaard. do you think president trump has twitterto take to seemingly in a much more aggressive fashion against the mueller probe? jacob: it is getting closer to him personally. last week we learned from the new york times that mueller had subpoenaed a lot of information from the trump organization which presumably will sort of be about previous business deals that the trump organization's have done in places like russia. we are talking about issues of
money laundering and other things. this could get very quickly, very ugly for the president. he is also allegedly to have received a list of the questions the special prosecutor would like to speak to him in a personal interview. this is getting closer to him. he is getting that he is responding. betty: if you read the headlines last week, sounds like things are falling apart. you had gary cohn leave, you had the mueller probe getting closer and closer personally to president trump. tillerson being fired, all these headlines, but let's bring up a quick screen. if you look at the poll numbers from president trump, it is interesting his approval rating is actually going up. it is up four points from january and still americans believe 40% want a republican-controlled congress in november. why is this? jacob: there is no doubt trump's launching of the potential trade
war is quite popular in a large segment of the american population and not just among republicans. it is probably more popular among democrats, so it is sort of ironic this is almost a bipartisan issue, trade tariffs. you know, secondly, clearly, the tax bill that passed before new year's was good. it was what trump and the republicans and -- in congress wanted. we had the bumper jobs reports. the way you promote a political noise and the potential constitutional crisis in washington, the u.s. economy is doing well. that, does that mean the political noise is just going to stay noise? it will not have any real economy impact? jacob: i think we are getting to a stage where it is increasingly likely it will have real economy
impact because i think we are heading for a potential constitutional crisis in the united. essentially what president trump is doing is he is testing. he is seeing how far the republican majority in congress will let him undermine the mueller investigation, because that is what he is doing. he is saying it is not fair. he is smearing a potential witness and the firing of andrew mccabe and others. so far republican leadership in congress have not said anything. trump is going to tie -- try something worse in my opinion, and we will have to see where it ends. if he tries to fire mueller, all bets are off, and we have a full-blown institutional crisis, which will happen and have a market impact. david: i was going to ask what do you think that worse is, because we need to start talking about the possibility that mueller gets fired.
we need to start talking about a much more concerted effort by president underminingrectly instead of sowing doubt about the impartiality, the rigor of that mueller administration instead of trying to label this as like you what's -- when he likes to call a witchhunt, dominated by democrats and old hilary supporters. we will see more of that, but at the same time, actually going the full saturday night massacre if you like and trying to fire mueller, i think that might be a step too far. i don't think the republican leadership in congress will let that pass. and therefore we should keep expecting a lot more noise, a lot more sort of personal analogy, the treatment of andrew mccabe and a lot of heated
rhetoric. that obviously is a distraction from the things the u.s. government should be doing. david: on the broader issue of changes, it is nothing new. what changed and you have alluded to this already is financial markets have become more sensitive when gary cohn went, rex tillerson. in other words, it is getting closer and closer to trump's economic plans. should investors have reason to be concerned, or should -- is this just noisier view? -- in your view? jacob: we should start to worry because it is clear that it is no longer possible for the trump white house, frankly in my opinion, to recruit suitable replacements for the people they have laid off. i don't regard mr. kudlow as a suitable replacement for gary cohn, and we will see very tough confirmation hearings for mike
neweo as well as the designated for the head of the cia. we are at 51-49 in the senate. rand paul is against john mccain, -- is against. john mccain is sick. no one coming out, no one in quality coming in after the people have been let go by trump. you are having a much bigger vacuum, a breakdown of the policymaker process in the white house, and very few people left to say no to the -- to donald trump. betty: interesting on the internal process, we were running with this story earlier about david malpass, the treasury undersecretary, goofing up is what he said when he misspoke about formal economic dialogue between the u.s. and china, and do you think we will
get more of these types of missteps because we don't have sort of the internal process? or it seems like it is breaking down when you have got people coming and going. there will be a lot of miscommunication. .acob: there will be no doubt if you want to talk to the united states, who do you call? do you want to call the treasury secretary, the white house, who do you call? there is no coordination. meanwhile you have what i call loose cannons like peter navarro and secretary of commerce wilbur ross running around, trying to start a trade war. so we should absolutely expect more of these uncoordinated rhetoric statements that have to be retracted. some of them with a very real economic impact, and god forbid we ever got into a situation where a senior member of the trump administration would have to stand up and try to calm the
market panic. could they do it? i doubt it. betty: get something coordinated quickly. thank you so much for joining us on sunday evening, jacob kierkegaard, the pearson institute of economics. very big questions. vladimir putin sweeping back to power in a landslide. the next six years of russia, contending with sanctions and oil. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> [indiscernible] ♪ ♪ this is daybreak asia. i am david ingles in hong kong. in newi am betty liu york. great to see another addition to our daybreak family there with the daybreak middle east launching. i know you got daybreak -- breaking news on japan. david: speaking of following the sun, trade numbers out of japan. looking at exports up 1.8%, imports 1.8%. not very much variance. 201 billion was the adjustment trade deficit. looking at a trade surplus unadjusted of 34 billion yen. to give you a sense of how it looks longer, if you look at the bigger picture, you are looking at the change in exports year on year. there have been a noticeable
sort of slowing down in export growth in japan. very quickly i will give you a sense of how that looks. there is related figure, 1.8%, also a fairly high base from last year. does it continue and does the math continue to on flatter? betty: and the political uncertainty or turmoil we have seen the last week in japan is also adding to the pain on the export side with the strength of the yen. let's turn to russia. the russian election turned out to be totally predictable with president putin winning a landslide. he is the country's longest serving leader since stalin and will be in power until 2024. the economy is struggling, relations with the west are at their worst since the cold war. ramy inocencio is at the wall with the things we need to know. ramy: the drama was not so much whether he would win. he would win.h
looking at this pie chart, this is answering that question. 75%, 75.1% with more than half of the ballots he would win. looking at this pie tallied, ise we stand and -- in terms of his vote. the communist candidate getting 11%, the liberal democrat 7%, than five other candidates sharing the 7% slice. i will show you how this compares on a historical context with the last three elections vladimir putin has been through. you can see it beats all others, ever since 2000 where it was 53%. one other important number is the turnout number. 60% is what the russian election commission is saying is out there, but the opposition voices have been rising. alexi nepali, the opposition leader, a popular person who is barred from running, said the numbers have been inflated 18%, and a russian tycoon is saying there is a lot of ballot reading
that has been cut as well. the official numbers here, one analyst is saying vladimir putin has a mandate from heaven with the 60% or more. this is relative to the last time which was just under that. there is support, legitimacy that he will try to use over his next six years. david: how can you argue with a mandate from heaven? reality is he has another six years, but there is a chance it could be downhill because you have the one-two punch of u.s. sanctions, lower oil on the economy, what is that situation? ramy: there are more negatives them positives in terms of what has been happening the past three terms that he has had. let's come to this side of the screen. as we look at mr. putin, voting presumably for himself in this election, let me run you through interesting things. his target for state salaries missed. his target for capital
investment, labor productivity, missed. one other thing he missed, g #btv 9369. this is gdp per capita of russia in red versus portugal and white. mr. putin wanted to make this comparison in 2000 during his first term to try to beat that. he never got there and it fully the way. -- folded away. something that is a weight is a currency. is, even under a weak dollar environment, it is almost nothing. and looking ahead when we expect the geopolitical tensions between russia, the u.s., the u.k. will not stop, we will expect more weakness in terms of the ruble there. finally my last terminal chart, g #btv 2898, got to talk about oil. as oil fortunes go, so do russia . when brent crude spiked, gdp
growth spiked, but brent is now down 6% the past few months, from the 2017 high. we do know the united states of course will have its u.s. shale output produced even record numbers, 11 million -- a day. a lot of weight here david. david: thank you. you can get a roundup of this to get your day going. are going with that top story. the russian election. for clients, that is dayb on your terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪
sure. what's up, son? i can't be your it guy anymore. what? you guys have xfinity. you can do this. what's a good wifi password, mom? you still have to visit us. i will. no. make that the password: "you_stillóhave_toóvisit_us." that's a good one. seems a bit long, but okay... set a memorable wifi password with xfinity my account. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around.
david: it is an :00 here in hong kong. welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories this monday morning, the asia-pacific has a mixed session. expecting and you head of the pboc. betty: i'm betty liu in new york where it is just after 8:00 p.m. on this sunday evening. more turmoil in washington, reports that the u.s. has done to the china economic dialogue. halfok back at li ka-shing a deal -- half a decade of
dealmaking around the world. david: very good morning to all our viewers joining us. if you are watching us out of the united states, we are just getting started, getting warmed up. the focus is on the fed, not that we are expecting them to do anything. just to get this clear, what the expectation is, the number of rate hikes for this year. have a look at our bloomberg chart that we keep revisiting every now and then. we are looking at three rate hikes -- three full rate increases, i mean. this could look very different after the meeting. betty: it absolutely good.
and closer toer this meeting, it seems like there are different opinions. they get wider and wider apart. we thought we would get for rate hikes and none come next year. others are saying three or maybe for for next year. opinions are starting to do verge -- diverge widely. david: there is a big part of the market that will be caught out. we will have to wait and see. in the meantime, let's get a check on the tokyo markets. sophie: the first meeting as fomc chair, we have stocks under pressure in asia, in japan. kospi lower by a
quarter of 1%. not only do we have the fed, we have the g20 meeting in argentina where tensions will be front and center. clinching a record fourth term as xi jinping voted unanimously for a second five-year term. abe might be looking at that enviously, given this landfill scandal. polls showing that public support is looking grim. tara aso will be facing the da for most of the day. exports rising a touch stronger than expected last month. still moderating from the double-digit growth we saw in january. exports to china did fall 10% but did rise to the u.s. and the eu.
data from australia, we will be getting jobs data, home prices for february later in the week. before that, we have the aussie sticking below 78 u.s. cents, already under pressure. iron ore has followed to a three-month low. the aussie could get another knock. ahead of that meeting, let's check in on the risk radar, keeping an eye of the dollar which is keeping steady, after capping a three-week advance. treasury yields are picking up about 2.86%. the yen is above the 1.06 handle. front, we are waiting on february home price data. we are waiting to hear confirmation on yi gan being
appointed the pboc governor. betty: big news to watch that affects the market. let's get to first word news with ramy innocencio. ramy: thank you. vladimir putin has won a record fourth term with 75% of the vote. that keeps them in the kremlin until 2024, russia's lummis serving leader since joseph stalin. he will continue to run an economy stagnating in the lungs recession in decades. he is also facing condemnation for meddling in the u.s. election and the nerve agent attack on a former spy in the u.k. meantime, the nikkei says it has evidence that russia spent years building -- the u.k. has evidence that russia spent years building the nerve agent. perfectedw moscow has
assassination by nerve agent. russia's ambassador to u.k. dismissed that. governorof england says the rise of digital currencies may make them a threat to the system. g20 meeting in buenos aires, he said cryptocurrencies could undermine current -- undermine confidence properly.ated carney says their combined a global market value is less than 1% of global economic output and they are not yet sexy for other traditional currencies. in sydneylian aussie has urged north korea to shut down its nuclear program immediately. the final communique this grad kim jong-un's ballistic missile's -- described kim jong-un's ballistic missile program as destabilizing. vowing resist all forms of protectionism. global news 24 hours a day,
powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. ♪ getd: more turmoil as we underway this new trading week in washington now that the treasury undersecretary for international affairs says he "misspoke" when he said economic dialogue with china is over. >> the administration was disappointed with the results. back toward a path a market orientation. so i discontinued the comprehensive economic dialogue. david: he was speaking with tim adams at the iif. backtracking. what happened? saw, he said the u.s.-china comprehensive economic dialogue talks have
been discontinued, which would be significant. these are talks asserted 10 treasury under then secretary hank paulson. they are a main way to link economic dialogue between the two countries. last year, they fell apart. they cannot come up with a joint statement, so it's been contentious. but ending them would be a significant factor. now, of course, mr. malpass walked back that comment, no, no, i misspoke. clearly, there is a bit of tension between the administration over the economic future talks and future how to respond to china and economic matters. david: right. in other words, there clearly might just be something happening underneath that we don't see. we got perhaps got a -- of it. back to those remarks, how significant are they? di: first of all, it's
confusing. what are the talks with china? what is our economics relationship? china has $1.2 trillion in u.s. treasury bonds. they are our biggest ford holder of u.s. debt. so that is significant. in recent weeks, the administration, president trump has come out with the terror, the steel -- the tariffs, the steel and aluminum tariffs, which is largely aimed at china. there is a lot of tension anyway. end, thatalks were to would create further tensions. betty: what could an end to these talks actually mean? jodi: this has been a channel for conversation, for linkages.
they have had people coming back and forth on in annual basis to discuss economic matters. it's really been a way to continue a conversation, even when there have been difficult times. clearly, they trump administration, president trump himself is trying very hard to now take a different tone with china. during the campaign, he said they would crackdown. he called them a currency manipulator. then he walked those things back the first few months of his administration, inviting the chinese president to meet with him at mar-a-lago going to china,, really having an open attitude. now it seems the administration concerned onare the market reform side and we will take a tougher line. and they will at the joint -- the g20 meetings taking place in buenos aires. betty: thank you.
the next few hours will bring a confirmation of who is taking the reins of the people's bank of china. some reports say the deputy governor has been chosen. let's cross over beijing to tom mackenzie. would yi's appointed signal for the direction of the next few years? you are saying that, the delegates are arriving. they will be voting on this nomination. as you say, very lightly, to seal yi gang as the new governor. he has been involved in working at the central bank since 1997. they work through the financial crisis. they have articulated their concerns about the debt issues in china. they have been pushing for greater reform.
that is something that zhou's referenced in the last press conference. gang has been under his tutelage. . they know where he stands. he has been given greater powers the last few weeks around writing some of the regulations for the financial sector. there is a dichotomy at play. the central bank has become a more powerful suggestion. governor of, the the bank has been less powerful because he will now have to referred to the economic advisor of president she -- president xi. by china'se control leader. gang is a man that they know
and has deep collections to the political elite in washington and economic has around the world. he used to be a lecturer in the u.s. term: xi jinping's second as president is significant. tom: i think so. it points to the lack of opposition or overt opposition within the party to his extending his rule. a unanimous vote from the national people's congress, the first time we have seen that in about a quarter of a century. and the way the state media has covered this, of course, they have been fawning. the front page is dominated by one man. that is how he has dominated the coverage. himpeople's daily described elsman.reat elfman --
has a clearthat xi path rule potentially for the rest of his life. confirmednominations, as vice president, a strong ally of president xi. he led the anticorruption campaign. he will take over the portfolio of u.s.-china ties. it will be a tricky conversation he will have to have with his colleagues in washington given that tensions are being exacerbated. it does have experience politically. the premier will get a second term. there.rise certainly a less powerful position that his predecessor. once, that was xi jinping. we will get additional confirmations, likely some --
the finance minister in some military posts as well. it will wrap up tomorrow. . -- tamara. -- tomorrow. david: thank you. backtracking on economic dialogue with china. japan is a market where fundamentals seem to be going out the window. the mismatch between shares and earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪
white house not discussing or considering firing robert mueller, but there is a lot of rumors and speculation in washington that president trump had considered this last summer and going into the end of last year. given his flurry of tweets over the weekend, there's more speculation that this might be happening soon. but the white house trying to ease any of that speculation right now. david: our guest earlier on was saying this is the line in the sand. if it does get to this, it is something [indiscernible] on that news, we are looking at dollar-yen. it was below 1.06 at some point. 1.065 right now. we are looking at a mixed it sure as far as equities. there is a fed meeting the takes
place as well thursday and friday. very good morning to you. we got a good start with washington. the news flow out of the u.s., what is your sense? does it exacerbate this move out of dollar assets is weak? >> it creates more variability in policymaking in washington. investors globally will need risk premium when they want to buy u.s. assets. that will take the form of a slightly weaker dollar. we saw that through last year and the beginning of this year. that will perpetuate that weaker dollar, especially against currencies like the yen. david: does it increase the move out of risk assets? markets have in here and there. they have not quite recovered as far as enthusiasm since the selloff last week.
this will just add another part of the list of not getting in this weekend getting in in a big way? >> at the margin coming my think so. last week, we saw a strong move back into equity markets, investors buying equities very strongly. i think it is much more the medium-term which assets do investors refer? -- prefer? do they prefer shares in owning companies? it is more favored than those promises by governments. david: i have to ask you buy japan. we were speaking last week when things really seemed like they would get out of hand in japan. your take back then was that there is no value when you look at equities in japan. morninga poll out this from 49%,, the support is now down to 43%. it is getting more serious now. do you still hold that view. >> sentiment is definitely weighing on the japanese economy with the stronger yen. when we look at trade data that
came out today, still positive versus expectations. we still think the underlying economy is doing well. that does not say much for the market in the short-term. we know that we have a federal reserve meeting coming up this week. so that is keeping market participants at bay until we see what will happen on that front. in terms of japanese politics, the medium-term -- towards the medium-term is more variable. , just i'm curious about staying on japan watch in the currency, we had the export numbers out of japan a little under an hour ago that showed the stronger currency is hurting exports there. a lot of people are looking at the dollar-yen and saying when will we hit through 100? do you see that particularly as a political risk here? in the united states, do you see that happening anytime soon? if this political risk
continues in japan, then the bank of japan will have to come out and take some action and make sure that the currency doesn't strengthen too much. it will be slightly off their hands if the u.s. economy or the u.s. political system is much more bearable and more risky. it might be a dollar weakness national -- ng the ¥100 to the dollar is the line in the sand. the markets will not like that level. night is neither will the exporters. they have the level at 110. price iss -- the
already sent a than that. for the economy's say, the boj will have to consider making a statement if it gets very much stronger. betty: before we go, you mentioned the dollar. we are watching the fed meeting. we are watching jay powell and what he will say on wednesday. if we seem to get that hawkish tilt from jay powell, do you expect more flattening of the yield curve? have we seen enough priced into the treasury that that might not and the shorter and might not move as much as we saw a earlier a few weeks ago? >> when we look at markets today, we have three, slightly more, for, rate -- four rate hikes priced in. jay powell's first conference after the fomc meeting, whether his style indicates that the fed
will be more hawkish and that will allow more dots to be priced in to the market -- dots being the fed long-term expectation for rate hikes -- i think the market will look very closely at how the statement is portrayed and whether they should take anything from higher levels or faster levels of interest rate hikes. david: the pricing right now the two-year, 2.3%. we will have to leave it there. interactive tvr fashion is tv . you can catch up on the past interviews you may have missed. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out, tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
victor lee has spent years in his father's shadow but now runs the show in his own right. he is 53 years old and is an injection of youth in an empire growing old and gray. oldest on the hang seng and the other leading companies are not that far behind. david: lots of experience, i guess. saudi arabia is reported willingness to delayed the aramco ipo may be a lack of interest in the u.s. officials have said to have pitched the listing to some of the biggest mutual investment funds. but investors are concerned that and$2 trillion valuation also the impact of shale on goal -- on global oil prices. coming up, a new governor at the home of the pboc. gang and what he
there. futures now down a fraction of one point. an impressive. -- unimptrdpired start, an uninspired startdibr unimpressed-- start, an uninspired start to the week. ramy: reports that washington had dumped a long-standing dialogue started by secretary hank paulson. washington was disappointed in the expanding role in the economy but then admitted he had misspoke. meantime, president trump has launched his most are active attack on the justice department investigation into alleged russian meddling in the 2016 election.
for themueller's name first time, saying they miller probe should never have been started and uses capital letters to call the investigation a witchhunt. the president also attacked andrew mccabe who was fired on friday. the south korean foreign minister says president trump probably surprised kim jong-un by agreeing so quickly to meet for talks. it was called extremely courageous, saying he believes the north korean leader is now considering his position before responding publicly. seoul and washington have made it clear that nothing has been offered in return for those talks. news of another major artwork coming to the market. sellingt paul allen is one of his top pieces. it will go under the hammer in hong kong next week. this is expected to fetch at least three $5 million with asian collectors increasingly keen on collecting western art.
it was painted in 1975. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. ♪ clear, they are both big hitters, but that is not paul allen out of sydney. let's have a look at markets across the asia-pacific. sophie: you said it, we have an uninspired start to the week. here's is what is going on in equity markets. the asx 200 rising for the second day with energy and real estate the best-performing sectors. the nikkei 225, we see consumer in tech shares the biggest casualty. the yen is keeping steady as shinzo abe saying this morning that it is clear he and his wife were not involved in the tampering of documents.
public support is looking grim as his approval is taking a hit according to local polls. the korean won is weaker. korean stocks are dragging in seoul. haveommodities space, we new york crude holding their $62 per barrel. this as russia commits to seeing the opec packed through. oil prices have been under pressure. i want to check in on equity kia,s, hyundai motors and as regulators find that as many as 425,000 cars may be affected by faulty airbags. can they motors -- hyundai motors having its biggest drop since 2017. in sydney, i want to highlight what is happening with banks. they are nudging higher. snap a and cba set to
losing streak as public hearings began in a year-long inquiry about misconduct in the industry. we have wesfarmers and woolworths, those retailers the biggest drags. we have analysts opine. deutsche bank saying this is a fantastic development for woolworth in the short-term. betty: some of the movers in the market this monday morning as yi gang looks to take over the bank of china as it use more power at home and abroad. but his own power may be constrained by president xi's increasingly centralized policy structure. kathleen hays here with more. we keep. more and more about how, yes, this is a change at the top at
a, but he has to answer to president xi eventually. kathleen and to the calmness party. -- kathleen: and to the communist party. yi is extremely well qualified. he has been at the pboc since 1997. he will carry the baton on financial reform, opening markets. we have to remember that the with theot the same stature and power as others around the world. they are not independent. pboc answers to and advises the state council. the communist party is very much involved in overseeing interest rates and for exchange rates. the pboc got more power in the
recent merging of the bank and insurance regulators,. . but remember, vice premier, president xi's top economic advisor has held powerful positions himself, including heading the financial stability bureau. yi will have tot answer to, which is another thing limiting his clout. flexibility in dealing with the problem. an economy they need to keep supporting, but not that much because there is a debt overhang issue at a time when the fed is raising interest rates. it's a delicate balancing act. kathleen: absolutely. it could get worse if the fed rate hikes start boost in the dollar.
pressure is building on the pboc to think about hiking rates. they are keeping their tightening bias in place, using financial regulation. we know they will have plenty of power there. and the rates on their open market operations. bank of america merrill lynch writing recently that they don't see the pboc having to follow the fed's rate hike steps a less inflation tops -- unless inflation tops 3%. you can see inflation -- the cpi inflation is up to 2.9%. so it is very close to that level. at the same time, the question of the debt is very tricky. leverage, theyo de did not make a lot of progress last year. now they have to try to push forward on that, but not do too much. they have a lot of things to balance. of course, debt is always big.
david: kathleen, thank you so much. we will stay with the story in china and bring in our guest. thank you so much for coming on the program. just your broad thoughts on the central bank in china. does this new guide basically face bigger problems -- new guy basically face bigger problems? the correspondent who was just on really frame the problem well. yi gang is a textbook perfect technocrat to lead the pboc. he has been there since 1997. he has been decade governor since 2008. nobody knows the challenges china is facing then yi gang.
the problem is we are not dealing with a normal clinical system. we are dealing with one in which it is not even the government running the show. party.e communist the substation should of the roles by the communist party, especially since late last fall, means that come if you are yi gang, your challenges doubly as hard. yi gang has to people looking over his shoulder. mostll have xi jinping's trusted economic deputy and xi jinping himself. course ofhe normal problems the pboc would be dealing with, debt for sure, we are looking to head into some pretty stiff headwinds with u.s.-china relations, uncertainty about policy coming from the u.s. that he is juggling technocratic economics as well as political problems. david: the currency likely comes fully convertible, hopefully under this guys watch.
how far do you think we are from that reality and we can talk about a fully convertible renminbi? >> a question like that is a little bit above my pay grade, but let me try to frame it. when we look at the furthering of any sort of liberalization or reform, we need to caveat all of that with a capital s stability. that is what reigns supreme under xi jinping right now. there has been a gut price to a lot of the economic performance, especially since 2015, and moving forward with anything that will bring on additional uncontrolled risks from the party perspective. i always believe in the power magical thinking. but when looking at the party's performance in the last couple of decades, especially since 1989, we know they are incredibly cautious about actions they take. betty: i keep hearing this line gang anding about yi
how he has to answer up the chain eventually to president xi and the communist party. how is that any different than the 15-year reign of the previous governor? >> you frame that nicely. just look at what happened over the past five years in terms of the encroachment of the state sector and the regress of reform. that is probably what one of the most forceful, bureaucratically adept advocates china has had in the past decade. imagine someone coming in without his larger-than-life streak red. imagine how -- street cred. non-powerfulhow a character yi gang will be.
this -- xi jinping looks of things in political terms, not economic terms. betty: does that meanbetty:, looking at yi gang, he has less weight or gravitas than his predecessors? does that mean we need to be paying more attention to the views and actions of [indiscernible] >> absolutely. if there is a storyline here, and many ways, this mirrors the trump white house. you have an increasingly smaller circle of key decision-makers. we need to be paying attention of a handful of leaders here. be new vice president will one. whyink we all need to its -- try to imagine what xi jinping dreams about because that is where the future of
china is heading. betty: absolutely, with one man. stay with us. we will talk more about china and the trade tensions right now. up next, the top treasury official backtracking a what he said about u.s.-china talks. how will this affect the g20 talks in buenos aires? more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ will and will and will will you will will will
>> the overall point that we want to come through is that countries have to work together toward market orientation. one of the concerns i raised here is china has moved away from liberalization. as we look at their state owned enterprises, more and more that activity is subsidized and is going into overcapacity. we have seen the recent examples of steel and aluminum with one of the world's biggest producers. they are using subsidized financing and state owned enterprises for the production. it is important for the world to keep moving forward in a market orientation. michael: muir crichlow china morning, suggesting something hit -- you were critical of china's one, suggesting something has changed. joined have international institutions and joined market pricing within their own economy.
but in recent years, that has stalled or even reversed. that is a concern for the world. that means the world cannot grow as fast as it should. they are continuing to use data-owned finance -- state owned finance for a lot of their activities. they are doing projects outside of china that are not transparent. above all, their markets are not reciprocal in the sense that there is not an ability for the countries to work in china the way china works elsewhere. so china is able to invest and trade with the united states in a way that american companies can't invest and trade in china. that ann's up with an imbalance that is -- that ends up with an imbalance that is of concern to the u.s. malpasshat was david drawing the tougher line on china.
let's talk about these u.s.-china trade tensions. we had new and miller on saying that it is not a matter of putting tariffs in place in china. it's really how big will they be? in will be the biggest loser this spat, in this tariff war? >> aside from the entire planet, i would say -- let me unpack this for a second. we are talking about two separate discrete issues, which we typically lump into one. i think china is more than happy to have this quote unquote trade war stay in the realm of aluminum, sorghum, steel. it does not come to the heart of china's overall development strategy. what really gets to worry china
is this impending legislation, depending on what the outcome of the 301 investigation is, which should be coming out anytime soon. policies designed to impact china's ability to move up the value chain, to target industries like robotics, it's a graded circuits, that is where china's concern is. if i'm china, i will try to keep this contained to industries that are important in the 1950's and try to keep this from sectors of the economy which will be shaping the 21st century. betty: that's a great point. responseus if china's or wanting to keep it contain like that may have to do with them letting the chinese currency continue to rise against the dollar. >> i think that's a good point.
what china is try to do right now is reverse engineer what victory looks like for trump and offer just enough to give him that, all the while trying to keep the shell game moving and keep us from seeing where the ball really is. i think there is a more fundamental problem here. if you talk to investors, if you talk to businesses, u.s. businesses operating in china, they are concerned about china's overall industrial development, industrial policy. that is really where the problems are. that is not with the white house seems to be focusing its attention with the caveat that -- that sifya one us and 301 will be important there. we have two sides of the fence. one the political -- one, the political risk from china. two, the uncertainty of whether u.s. is going.
i will make one final point, which we shall be looking at. the definition that the trump administration is using for national security is so expensive that it mirrors the way xi jinping talks about national security. once the national security pandora's box is up in a folks use that as a get out of jail free card for tariffs and punitive policies, we put the in w -- the entire wto at risk here. that is where our i should be looking. how do we contain this before this really gets out of hand? blanchet, senior adviser. from wartime refugee, [indiscernible] this is bloomberg. ♪
shoes? stephen: or does he make the bold, radical changes? if there has ever been an old economy can't them -- company as large, this is it. they are into infrastructure, ports, property. they are into bottled water. . they are into war -- oil drilling, power generation, electricity. they are also into mobile phone services, not only in hong kong, but across europe and the u.k. even their moniker, three, is outdated. this is perhaps a company that has been -- not left behind. they are still a massive conglomerate. the competitive companies like tencent in hong kong, new economy companies, this is the definition of old economy. li ka-shing was one of the early investors in airbnb and spotify. that is his in venture arm, not his five should comedies. doubts -- not his flagship
companies. the garage downstairs from may have to pay cash. it is old economy. do we get any indication from victor on how he will be different? stephen: he said there will not be much change. he said it will be the status quo. "don't expect major changes anytime soon. no plans for internal restructuring." keep in mind, this company has the oldest average age of board of directors in the hang seng index at age 73. even take out li ka-shing, who is bordering on 90, they are still one of the oldest boards in hong kong. the victor of li set -- but victor li says no internal restructuring. li ka-shing said let me answer that for him. li ka-shing will definitely be
there. this is what the elderly had to say about the succession planning. i said many years ago that i could go on holiday anytime in my company would still run as usual. i can go on holiday even today. i have 320,000 staff worldwide and all the men in senior management would remain. that means the company has a great senior management team and good guidelines to follow. stephen: a big reason he became a multimillionaire -- multibillionaire is the property market. betty: stephen engle, thank you so much. stay tuned for bloomberg markets coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪